Editing EasyJet plc

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In summary, EasyJet faced substantial losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the news of effective vaccines resulted in a surge in bookings. The airline implemented various measures to manage its finances, including raising cash and reducing costs. With bookings for peak periods returning to pre-pandemic levels and an optimistic outlook for the next summer season, EasyJet appears to be on a path of recovery, although challenges related to stimulating demand during quieter times and managing rising costs persist.<ref>https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/29/easyjet-bookings-covid-losses-tickets</ref>
In summary, EasyJet faced substantial losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the news of effective vaccines resulted in a surge in bookings. The airline implemented various measures to manage its finances, including raising cash and reducing costs. With bookings for peak periods returning to pre-pandemic levels and an optimistic outlook for the next summer season, EasyJet appears to be on a path of recovery, although challenges related to stimulating demand during quieter times and managing rising costs persist.<ref>https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/29/easyjet-bookings-covid-losses-tickets</ref>


'''Sustainability'''
Aviation accounts for 2.5% of global CO2 emissions according to a report by 'Our World In Data' (2020). Planes emit CO2 from burning fuels. On top of CO2, aircraft engines emit other gases – nitrous oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and water (H2O) – and particulate matter (soot). When emitted at high altitudes, these emissions affect atmospheric physical and chemical properties (source-Transport and Environment). If looked at distance/consumption, the most fuel is consumed during take-off and climbing. Also the higher the flight range, the higher the share of fuel consumed while cruising. EasyJet's main focus is on short-haul flights (low range), which might lead to lower fuel consumption while cruising. However, due to frequent takeoffs and landings on short-haul routes, the distance/consumption ratio is affected as these phases significantly contribute to fuel usage. Sustainability in aviation could be achieved through improvements in aircraft and engine efficiency, the use of sustainable aviation fuels, more efficient operations and airspace, the use of robust carbon offsets and investment in innovative carbon removal solutions could address the residual, according to a report by Sustainable Aviation. easyJet plans to achieve sustainability through the combination of six drivers: fleet renewal, operational efficiencies, airspace modernisation, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), zero carbon emission aircraft and carbon removal technology. easyJet has 168 A320neo family aircraft in its orderbook. This more efficient Airbus NEO aircraft will reduce fuel burn, carbon emissions and related operating costs. They will also use Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in line with their net zero roadmap and have signed a long-term agreement with their main fuel supplier: Q8Aviation for the next 5 years. Currently SAFs are known to be more expensive than traditional jet fuel, so it carries the burden of affecting operating profits. Nonetheless these sustainability initiatives carries the potential of becoming key differentiator in the long term.   


== Market ==
== Market ==
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* Airlines are vulnerable to fluctuations in fuel prices, which can significantly impact operating costs; easyJet has hedged fuel at a higher spot rate than the current price. If price keeps decreasing, easyJet will have greater losses.
* Airlines are vulnerable to fluctuations in fuel prices, which can significantly impact operating costs; easyJet has hedged fuel at a higher spot rate than the current price. If price keeps decreasing, easyJet will have greater losses.
* Economics conditions, such as the cost of living crisis the UK is currently suffering from, can result in downturns in demand. With both the interest rate (5%) and inflation (8.7%) increasing, demand is likely to be lower this year. According to Deloitte's 'Global State of the Consumer Tracker,' 2022 report, the rising inflation rates posed a potential threat to travel demand in the upcoming period. Nevertheless, the travel industry received a glimmer of hope as people are still putting holidays near the top of our discretionary spending priorities.
* Economics conditions, such as the cost of living crisis the UK is currently suffering from, can result in downturns in demand. With both the interest rate (5%) and inflation (8.7%) increasing, demand is likely to be lower this year.
* In the last few years, there has been an increase in competition in the Low cost carrier sector. Companies such as Ryanair and Wizz Air have seen their market shares increase since 2019 and COVID, whereas easyJet’s market share has been relatively stagnant at 7.5%
* In the last few years, there has been an increase in competition in the Low cost carrier sector. Companies such as Ryanair and Wizz Air have seen their market shares increase since 2019 and COVID, whereas easyJet’s market share has been relatively stagnant at 7.5%
* Natural disasters, extreme weather events, or health crises (e.g., pandemics) can disrupt travel plans and reduce demand for air travel, impacting the airline's revenue and profitability.
* Natural disasters, extreme weather events, or health crises (e.g., pandemics) can disrupt travel plans and reduce demand for air travel, impacting the airline's revenue and profitability.
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=== What's the expected return of an investment in the company? ===
=== What's the expected return of an investment in the company? ===
The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in EasyJet plc over the next five years is '''positive 8.5%'''. This value was arrived at through the use an intrinsic valuation in the form of a discounted cash flow model. A relative valuation through a comparable company analysis was also conducted, although this resulted in a wildly different share price, and so provides a far less reliable estimate for the valuation.
The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in EasyJet plc over the next five years is '''positive 8.5%'''. This value was arrived at through the use an intrinsic valuation in the form of a discounted cash flow model. A relative valuation through a comparable company analysis was also conducted, although this resulted in a wildly different share price, '''and further investigation is required to refine the model.'''


Assuming that a suitable return level of five years is 10% per year (based of the S&P 500 returns) and EasyJet achieves its return level of positive 8.5%, then the company can be considered 'undervalued'.
Assuming that a suitable return level of five years is 10% per year (based of the S&P 500 returns) and EasyJet achieves its return level of positive 8.5%, then the company can be considered 'undervalued'.
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# Comparing key financial metrics of the company to other similar investment
# Comparing key financial metrics of the company to other similar investment


Research has suggested that to estimate the expected return of an investment over a long-term investment horizon, a discounted cash flow model provides an accurate projection. For completeness a comparable company analysis has been conducted, however the accuracy of the analysis is limited due to the fact that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may have affected different airlines to varying extents, thus vastly diverging their share price and debt.
Research has suggested that to estimate the expected return of an investment over a long-term investment horizon, a discounted cash flow model provides an accurate projection. For completeness a comparable company analysis has been conducted, however the accuracy of the analysis is limited due to the fact that '''WHY'''
|-
|-
|Financial Projections
|Financial Projections
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===Discounted Cash Flow Model===
===Discounted Cash Flow Model===
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
| colspan="15" |Current Share Price: £4.46
| colspan="16" |Current Share Price: £4.46
|-
|-
!''£ million''
!''£ million''
! colspan="9" |''Historical''
! colspan="9" |''Historical''
! colspan="5" |''Projected''
! colspan="5" |''Projected''
!
|-
|-
!
!
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!2026
!2026
!2027
!2027
!Notes
|-
|-
! colspan="15" |Income Statement
! colspan="16" |Income Statement
|-
|-
|Revenue
|Revenue
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|10212
|10212
|11029
|11029
|
|-
|-
|''% growth''
|''% growth''
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|5%
|5%
|8%
|8%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
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|7783
|7783
|8405
|8405
|
|-
|-
|''% of revenue''
|''% of revenue''
Line 628: Line 631:
|76%
|76%
|76%
|76%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
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|2429
|2429
|2623
|2623
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 692: Line 699:
|239
|239
|258
|258
|
|-
|-
|''% of revenue''
|''% of revenue''
Line 708: Line 716:
|2%
|2%
|2%
|2%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 740: Line 750:
|390
|390
|421
|421
|
|-
|-
|''% of revenue''
|''% of revenue''
Line 756: Line 767:
|4%
|4%
|4%
|4%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
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|27
|27
|29
|29
|
|-
|-
|''% of revenue''
|''% of revenue''
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|0.3%
|0.3%
|0.3%
|0.3%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
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|676
|676
|730
|730
|
|-
|-
|% of revenue
|% of revenue
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|7%
|7%
|7%
|7%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 884: Line 903:
|1332
|1332
|1438
|1438
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 916: Line 937:
|1097
|1097
|1185
|1185
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 948: Line 971:
|1487
|1487
|1606
|1606
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 980: Line 1,005:
|195
|195
|211
|211
|
|-
|-
|''Effective tax rate''
|''Effective tax rate''
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|18%
|18%
|18%
|18%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,028: Line 1,056:
|902
|902
|974
|974
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,045: Line 1,075:
|
|
|-
|-
! colspan="15" |Cashflow
! colspan="16" |Cashflow
|-
|-
|D&A
|D&A
Line 1,062: Line 1,092:
|390
|390
|421
|421
|
|-
|-
|''% of revenue''
|''% of revenue''
Line 1,078: Line 1,109:
|4%
|4%
|4%
|4%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,110: Line 1,143:
| -1266
| -1266
| -1367
| -1367
|
|-
|-
|''% of revenue''
|''% of revenue''
Line 1,126: Line 1,160:
|12%
|12%
|12%
|12%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,158: Line 1,194:
| -233
| -233
| -252
| -252
|
|-
|-
|% of revenue
|% of revenue
Line 1,174: Line 1,211:
| -2%
| -2%
| -2%
| -2%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,206: Line 1,245:
|'''247'''
|'''247'''
|'''259'''
|'''259'''
|
|}
|}
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
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