Editing LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne

Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.

The edit can be undone. Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then publish the changes below to finish undoing the edit.

Latest revision Your text
Line 1: Line 1:
{{Infobox company
| name = LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton<!--full legal name-->
| trade_name = LVMH
| logo = LVMH-black.png
| image = 22 avenue Montaigne Paris.jpg
| image_size = 250px
| image_caption = Headquarters in Paris
| type = [[Public company|Public]] (''[[Societas Europaea]]'')<ref name="Infogreffe" />
| traded_as = {{EuronextParis|MC|FR0000121014|XPAR}}<br/>[[CAC 40|CAC 40 Component]]
| ISIN = {{ISIN|sl=n|pl=y|FR0000121014}}
| predecessors = {{ubl|[[Moët & Chandon]]|[[Hennessy]]|[[Louis Vuitton]]}}
| num_locations = 5,664 stores (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22" />
| area_served = Worldwide
| key_people = [[Bernard Arnault]] {{small|([[chairman]] and [[Chief executive officer|CEO]])}} <br /> [[Delphine Arnault]] {{small|(director)}} <br /> Antonio Belloni {{small|(MD, Deputy CEO)}}<br /> Andrew Lovell{{small| (MD)}}
| industry = [[Luxury goods]]
| founders = [[Bernard Arnault]]<br /> Alain Chevalier <br/> [[Henry Racamier]]
| products = {{hlist|[[Clothing]]|[[cosmetics]]|[[Fashion accessory|fashion accessories]]|[[Jewellery|jewelry]]|[[perfume]]s|[[Distilled beverage|spirits]]|[[watch]]es|[[wine]]s}}
| services = [[Department store]]s
| revenue = {{increase}} €79.2 billion (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22">{{cite web|url=https://r.lvmh-static.com/uploads/2023/03/lvmh_2022_annual-report.pdf|title=LVMH 2022 Annual Report |date=June 8, 2023}}</ref>
| operating_income = {{increase}} €21.1 billion (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22" />
| net_income = {{increase}} €14.1 billion (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22" />
| assets = {{increase}} €135 billion (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22" />
| equity = {{increase}} €56.6 billion (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22" />
| num_employees = 196,006 (2022)<ref name="lvmh-fy22" />
| subsid = [[#Subsidiaries|List of subsidiaries]]
| homepage = [https://www.lvmh.com lvmh.com]
| parent = [[Dior|Christian Dior SE]] (41.1%)
| foundation = {{Start date and age|1987|6|3|df=y}}
| location = {{nowrap|Global: 22 [[Avenue Montaigne]]}}<br/>[[Paris]], France<br/>Overseas: [[LVMH Tower]]<br/>19 [[57th Street (Manhattan)|East 57th Street]]<br/>[[New York City|New York]], [[New York (state)|N.Y.]], U.S.
}}
== Business Description ==
== Business Description ==
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne operates as a luxury goods company worldwide. The company offers champagnes, wines, and spirits under the Clos des Lambrays, Château d'Yquem, Dom Pérignon, Ruinart, Moët & Chandon, Hennessy, Veuve Clicquot, Ardbeg, Château Cheval Blanc, Glenmorangie, Krug, Mercier, Chandon, Cape Mentelle, Newton Vineyard, Cloudy Bay, Belvedere, Terrazas de los Andes, Bodega Numanthia, Cheval des Andes, Woodinville, Ao Yun, Clos19, and Volcan de mi Tierra brands.  
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne operates as a luxury goods company worldwide. The company offers champagnes, wines, and spirits under the Clos des Lambrays, Château d'Yquem, Dom Pérignon, Ruinart, Moët & Chandon, Hennessy, Veuve Clicquot, Ardbeg, Château Cheval Blanc, Glenmorangie, Krug, Mercier, Chandon, Cape Mentelle, Newton Vineyard, Cloudy Bay, Belvedere, Terrazas de los Andes, Bodega Numanthia, Cheval des Andes, Woodinville, Ao Yun, Clos19, and Volcan de mi Tierra brands. It also provides fashion and leather products under the Berluti, Celine, Christian Dior, Emilio Pucci, FENDI, Givenchy, Kenzo, Loewe, Loro Piana, Louis Vuitton, Marc Jacobs, Moynat, Patou, and RIMOWA brands. In addition, the company offers perfumes and cosmetics under the Acqua di Parma, Benefit Cosmetics, Cha Ling, Fenty Beauty by Rihanna, Fresh, Givenchy Parfums, Guerlain, KVD Beauty, Kenzo Parfums, Maison Francis Kurkdjian, Make Up For Ever, Marc Jacobs Beauty, Officine Universelle Buly, Parfums Christian Dior, and Perfumes Loewe brands; watches and jewelry under the Bulgari, Chaumet, Fred, Hublot, Repossi, TAG Heuer, Tiffany & Co., and Zenith brands; and custom-designed yachts under the Feadship brand name, as well as designs and builds luxury yachts under the Royal Van Lent brand. Further, it provides daily newspapers under the Les Échos brand; Belmond, a luxury tourism service; home other activities under the Belmond, Cheval Blanc, Connaissance des Arts, Cova, Investir, Jardin d'Acclimatation, La Samaritaine, Le Parisien, and Radio Classique brands; and selective retailing products under the DFS, La Grande Epicerie de Paris, Le Bon Marché Rive Gauche, Sephora, and Starboard Cruise Services brands, as well as operates Jardin d'Acclimatation, a leisure and amusement park. The company operates 5,556 stores. LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne was incorporated in 1923 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
 
It also provides fashion and leather products under the Berluti, Celine, Christian Dior, Emilio Pucci, FENDI, Givenchy, Kenzo, Loewe, Loro Piana, Louis Vuitton, Marc Jacobs, Moynat, Patou, and RIMOWA brands.  
 
In addition, the company offers perfumes and cosmetics under the Acqua di Parma, Benefit Cosmetics, Cha Ling, Fenty Beauty by Rihanna, Fresh, Givenchy Parfums, Guerlain, KVD Beauty, Kenzo Parfums, Maison Francis Kurkdjian, Make Up For Ever, Marc Jacobs Beauty, Officine Universelle Buly, Parfums Christian Dior, and Perfumes Loewe brands.
 
Watches and jewelry under the Bulgari, Chaumet, Fred, Hublot, Repossi, TAG Heuer, Tiffany & Co., and Zenith brands; and custom-designed yachts under the Feadship brand name, as well as designs and builds luxury yachts under the Royal Van Lent brand. Further, it provides daily newspapers under the Les Échos brand; Belmond, a luxury tourism service; home other activities under the Belmond, Cheval Blanc, Connaissance des Arts, Cova, Investir, Jardin d'Acclimatation, La Samaritaine, Le Parisien, and Radio Classique brands.
 
Selective retailing products under the DFS, La Grande Epicerie de Paris, Le Bon Marché Rive Gauche, Sephora, and Starboard Cruise Services brands, as well as operates Jardin d'Acclimatation, a leisure and amusement park.  
 
== Summary ==
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
 
Today, the group is made up of more than 75 Maisons, with each one creating high quality products, but with their distinctive identities. The Maisons have carefully preserved their heritage by ensuring that the quality of their products is maintained and improved. To achieve products excellence over time vertical integration across the value chain is used, from sourcing the finest raw materials, production and selective retailing. The group will carry on pursuing its brand development-focused strategy in 2023. <ref name=":1">LVMH’s Growth Was Challenged In Fourth Quarter: Is It A Harbinger For 2023? (forbes.com)[https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2023/01/29/lvmhs-growth-was-challenged-in-fourth-quarter-is-it-a-harbinger-for--2023/?sh=3470d6b742dd]</ref>
 
The company operates 5,556 stores world wide and currently employs over 196,000 people.
 
It is the only group present in all five major sectors of the luxury market: Wines & Spirits, Fashion & Leather Goods, Perfumes & Cosmetics, Watches & Jewelry and Selective Retailing.<ref>Mission (lvmh.com)</ref>


=== What's the mission of the company? ===
=== What's the mission of the company? ===
“Our success is only worthwhile if it is also virtuous. Success can only last if it is fair. And if it benefits everyone, then it will be even greater. What’s the point of inspiring dreams with magnificent products if they don’t meet the highest social and environmental standards? We apply those standards for the benefit of our employees and our customers of course, for our stakeholders as well, but above all for our future.” Bernard Arnault
“Our success is only worthwhile if it is also virtuous” Success can only last if it is fair. And if it benefits everyone, then it will be even greater. What’s the point of inspiring dreams with magnificent products if they don’t meet the highest social and environmental standards? We apply those standards for the benefit of our employees and our customers of course, for our stakeholders as well, but above all for our future.” Bernard Arnault


==== 2023 Objectives to further increase LVMH's global leadership position: ====
==== 2023 Objectives to further increase LVMH's global leadership position: ====
Line 60: Line 12:
# Commitment: preserve the environment and corporate responsibilities.
# Commitment: preserve the environment and corporate responsibilities.
# Vigilance: maintain vigilance within current economic and geopolitical context.
# Vigilance: maintain vigilance within current economic and geopolitical context.
# Entrepreneurial spirit
# Entrepreneurial spirit.
 
==== LIFE 360: LVMH environmental strategy for new luxury: ====
 
# Biodiversity: 2030 -> 5 millions hectares of flora and fauna preserved.
# Climate:
## 2026 -> 50% reduction in energy- related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
## 2030 -> 55% reduction and/or avoidance of Scope 3 GHG emissions per unit of added value.
# Create circularity: 2030 -> 100% of new products covered by a sustainable design approach.
# Traceability: 2030 -> 100% of strategic chains covered by a dedicated traceability system.


== Macro Analysis and Trends ==
== Macro Analysis and Trends ==
Line 73: Line 34:
The industry has experienced significant growth in recent years, and it is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. Looking ahead, this growth will be driven by a number of macro trends:
The industry has experienced significant growth in recent years, and it is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. Looking ahead, this growth will be driven by a number of macro trends:


1.      '''The growth of the middle class in emerging markets''': The growth of the middle class in emerging markets is one of the most important trends in the global economy. By 2030 the global middle class, is expected to reach 4.8 billion people, that is 1.3 billion more people with increased purchasing power than today.<ref>Growing consumption | Knowledge for policy (europa.eu)[https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/growing-consumerism_en#:~:text=By%202030%2C%20the%20global%20middle%20class%2C%20also%20termed,more%20people%20with%20increased%20purchasing%20power%20than%20today.]</ref> This trend is driving demand for luxury goods in emerging markets. Despite a disappointing first half of 2023, due to a stall in US sales growth. Jean-Jacques Guiony, CFO, has stated that the stall in US sales is due to favourable currency exchange rates, American tourists travelled to Europe to make their purchases.<ref name=":1" /> This can be explained as Europe advances 28% in Q4-2022, with market share reaching 24% up from 21% in 2021. China still represents the largest emerging market for luxury goods and Asia's economy rebounded in Q1-2023 where sales grew 14%, compared to a falling 8% in the last 3 months on 2022. <ref>UBS’s Credit Suisse challenge | Financial Times (ft.com)[https://www.ft.com/content/cdc1cf20-136b-4dd4-9232-d9bc89f49420]</ref>
1.      '''The growth of the middle class in emerging markets''': The growth of the middle class in emerging markets is one of the most important trends in the global economy. This trend is driving demand for luxury goods in emerging markets. Despite a disappointing first half of 2023, China still represents the largest emerging market for luxury goods its economy is expected to grow by 5.2% in 2023.<ref>https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/sp-global-cuts-china-2023-growth-forecast-52-55-2023-06-26/</ref>


2.      '''Generational trends''': Millennials are increasingly becoming the target market for luxury goods brands. This is because millennials have more disposable income than previous generations, and they are more likely to spend money on luxury goods. Additionally, “Gen Z” are expected to represent one-third of the market by 2030 and their spending is set to grow three times faster than for other generations until 2030.<ref>https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/2022/global-luxury-goods-market-takes-2022-leap-forward-and-remains-poised--for-further-growth-despite-economic-turbulence/#:~:text=Global%20luxury%20goods%20market%20takes%202022%20leap%20forward,60%25%2B%20market%20growth%20to%202030%20...%20More%20items</ref>
2.      '''Generational trends''': Millennials are increasingly becoming the target market for luxury goods brands. This is because millennials have more disposable income than previous generations, and they are more likely to spend money on luxury goods. Additionally, “Gen Z” are expected to represent one-third of the market by 2030 and their spending is set to grow three times faster than for other generations until 2030.<ref>https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/2022/global-luxury-goods-market-takes-2022-leap-forward-and-remains-poised--for-further-growth-despite-economic-turbulence/#:~:text=Global%20luxury%20goods%20market%20takes%202022%20leap%20forward,60%25%2B%20market%20growth%20to%202030%20...%20More%20items</ref>  


3.      '''The growth of online shopping''': The growth of online shopping is another important trend that is impacting the luxury goods industry. Online shopping is making it easier for consumers to buy luxury goods from around the world. This trend was observed during the Covid- 19 global pandemic, due to the closure of retail stores.
3.      '''The growth of online shopping''': The growth of online shopping is another important trend that is impacting the luxury goods industry. Online shopping is making it easier for consumers to buy luxury goods from around the world.


4.      '''The demand for sustainable luxury goods''': There is a growing demand for sustainable luxury goods. This is because consumers are becoming more aware of the environmental impact of luxury goods production. Even though, according to Bain-Altagamma, the luxury market is only expected to grow 3% to 5% or 6% to 8%, best case scenario, in 2023. <ref>LVMH’s Growth Was Challenged In Fourth Quarter: Is It A Harbinger For 2023? (forbes.com)[https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2023/01/29/lvmhs-growth-was-challenged-in-fourth-quarter-is-it-a-harbinger-for--2023/?sh=3470d6b742dd]</ref>
4.      '''The demand for sustainable luxury goods''': There is a growing demand for sustainable luxury goods. This is because consumers are becoming more aware of the environmental impact of luxury goods production.


== Key Professionals <ref>https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/Company/Professionals.aspx?CompanyId=195488</ref> ==
== Key Professionals <ref>https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/Company/Professionals.aspx?CompanyId=195488</ref> ==
Line 491: Line 452:
LVMH has undertaken the following initiatives:  
LVMH has undertaken the following initiatives:  


-     LIFE 360: LVMH environmental strategy for new luxury:
-       Life 360  
 
# Biodiversity: 2030 -> 5 millions hectares of flora and fauna preserved.
# Climate:
## 2026 -> 50% reduction in energy- related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
## 2030 -> 55% reduction and/or avoidance of Scope 3 GHG emissions per unit of added value.
# Create circularity: 2030 -> 100% of new products covered by a sustainable design approach.
# Traceability: 2030 -> 100% of strategic chains covered by a dedicated traceability system.


-       2025 CSR
-       2025 CSR
Line 506: Line 460:
-       Diversity & Inclusion
-       Diversity & Inclusion


-       ple back into work after long-term unemployment)
-       Dîner des Maisons engages (Fund raising dinner - Sickle cell anemia)
 
-       EllesVMH (Group initiative for Gender Equity)
 
-       Heart Fund
 
-       LIVE (help people back into work after long-term unemployment)


-       Disability Inclusion
-       Disability Inclusion
Line 531: Line 491:


=== Total Addressable Market ===
=== Total Addressable Market ===
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the luxury goods global market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6<sup>th</sup> July 2023) in terms of revenue, is US$354.80bn, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.38% in the forecast period of 2023- 2027.<ref name=":0">Luxury Goods - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast</ref>
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the luxury goods global market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6<sup>th</sup> July 2023) in terms of revenue, is US$354.80bn, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.38% in the forecast period of 2023- 2028.<ref name=":0">Luxury Goods - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast</ref>


LVMH is the global leader in the luxury goods global market, having a market share of approximately 25% in terms of annual revenue. It operates in all geographic regions and covers all business groups of the luxury goods market. Making its Serviceable Available Market and Serviceable Obtainable Market equal to the Total Addressable Market.
== Financial Highlights <ref name=":2" /> ==
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Key Consolidated Data ''(EUR Millions)'''''
!'''2020'''
!'''2021'''
!'''2022'''
|-
|Revenue
|44,651
|64,215
|79,184
|-
|Profit from recurring operations
|8,305
|17,151
|21,055
|-
|Net profit
|4,955
|12,698
|14,751
|-
|Net profit, Group share
|4,702
|12,036
|14,084
|-
|Cash from operations before changes in working capital
|13,997
|22,621
|26770
|-
|Operating investment
|2.478
|2,664
|4,969
|-
|Operating free cash flow
|6,117
|13,531
|10,113
|-
|Total equity <sup>(a)</sup>
|38,829
|48,909
|56,604
|-
|Net financial debt <sup>(b)</sup>
|4,241
|9,607
|9201
|-
|Adjusted net financial debt/Equity ratio
|10.9%
|19.60%
|14.30%
|}
<small>''(a) Including minority interests''</small>
 
<small>''(b) Excluding “Lease liabilities” and “Purchase commitments for minority interests’ shares” included in “Other non-current liabilities”''</small>


== Financial Highlights <ref name=":2" /> ==
=== Business Group - Highlights ===
=== Business Group - Highlights ===
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
Line 619: Line 637:
|'''21,055'''
|'''21,055'''
|}
|}
==== Revenue by business group ====
[[File:Capture4.png|Revenue by business group, as a % of total revenue.]]
==== Revenue by geographic region delivery ====
[[File:Revenue by region.png|Revenue by geographic region of delivery, in %]]


== Financial Statements<ref>lvmh_2022_annual-report.pdf (lvmh-static.com)</ref> ==
== Financial Statements<ref>lvmh_2022_annual-report.pdf (lvmh-static.com)</ref> ==
Line 632: Line 642:
   
   
==== Most recent quarter ====
==== Most recent quarter ====
Comparing Q1 2023 to Q1 2022, in euro millions, the total LVMH group has experienced a 17% reported and organic increase in revenue from 18,003 to 21,035 respectively.  
Comparing Q1 2023 to Q1 2022, in euro millions, the total LVMH group has experienced a 17% reported and organic increase in revenue from 18,003 to 21,035 respectively. The Wines & Spirits business group recorded a revenue growth of 3% with an organic revenue growth of 14% of the Champagne & Wines sector, due to a strong start to year driven by positive price effect, and a 5% organic revenue decrease of the Cognac & Spirits sector, due to China recovering from Covid impact while US impacted by softer economic environment. The Fashion & Leather Goods business group recorded a revenue growth of 18%, due to exceptional performance, driven by creativity and iconic products, specially in Louis Vuitton. The greatest revenue evolution was observed in the Selective Retailing sector, where an increase of 28% was recorded due to Sephora's strong performance, DFS benefiting from recovery in travel, notably in Asia and Le Bon Marché with its creative animations.<ref>Présentation PowerPoint (lvmh-static.com)</ref>
 
The Wines & Spirits business group recorded a revenue growth of 3% with an organic revenue growth of 14% of the Champagne & Wines sector, due to a strong start to year driven by positive price effect and China recovering from Covid impact, and a 5% organic revenue decrease of the Cognac & Spirits sector, due to the US being impacted by softer economic environment.  
 
The Fashion & Leather Goods business group recorded a revenue growth of 18%, due to exceptional performance, driven by creativity and iconic products, specially in Louis Vuitton.  
 
The greatest revenue evolution was observed in the Selective Retailing sector, where an increase of 28% was recorded due to Sephora's strong performance, DFS benefiting from recovery in travel, notably in Asia and Le Bon Marché with its creative animations.<ref>Présentation PowerPoint (lvmh-static.com)</ref>


==== Most recent year ====
==== Most recent year ====
Line 645: Line 649:
Other important financial indicators include:<ref>Présentation PowerPoint (lvmh-static.com)</ref>
Other important financial indicators include:<ref>Présentation PowerPoint (lvmh-static.com)</ref>


* a decrease in operating free cash flow by 3.418 billion euros in comparison with 2021.
* dividend of 12 euros in 2022, increased by 20% compared to 2021.
* dividend of 12 euros in 2022, increased by 20% compared to 2021.
* Gearing of 16% compared to a gearing of 20% in 2021. (Gearing: the ratio of a company's debt to equity)
* Gearing of 16% compared to a gearing of 20% in 2021. (Gearing: the ratio of a company's debt to equity)
Line 785: Line 790:
|'''26,720'''
|'''26,720'''
|}
|}
[[File:LVMH Annual Income Statement.png|left|thumb|465x465px]]


[[File:LVMH Annual Income Statement.png]]


=== LVMH's Annual Balance Sheet ===
=== LVMH's Annual Balance Sheet ===
Line 980: Line 1,002:
|'''35,147'''
|'''35,147'''
|}
|}
[[File:LVMH Balance Sheet.png|left|thumb|443x443px]]


[[File:LVMH Balance Sheet.png]]


=== LVMH's Cash Flow Statement ===
=== LVMH's Cash Flow Statement ===
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!'''EUR''' €,  Millions
!'''EUR''' €,  Millions
Line 1,191: Line 1,230:
|'''10,113'''
|'''10,113'''
|}
|}
[[File:Cash Flow Statement.png|Cash Flow Summary]


=== Financial Forecast ===
=== Financial Forecast ===
Line 1,204: Line 1,241:
|What’s the estimated current size of the total addressable market?
|What’s the estimated current size of the total addressable market?
|$354,800,000,000
|$354,800,000,000
|The total addressable market is defined as the luxury goods  global market and , it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6<sup>th</sup>  July 2023) in terms of revenue, is US$354.80bn.
|The total addressable market is defined as the luxury goods  global market and , it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6<sup>th</sup>  July 2023) in terms of revenue, is US$354.80bn.<ref name=":0" />
|-
|-
|What growth stage is the company in?
|What growth stage is the company in?
Line 1,215: Line 1,252:


|80 years
|80 years
|LVMH employees approximately 196,000, making the company a  large organisation, research has proven that the average life span of a large  company is approximately 50 years. Due to LVMHs exponential revenue growth in  the last 36 years, and assuming that the company is in the maturity stage of  growth which is approximately 50% of a companies lifecycle, I am going to assume a life span of 80 years.
|LVMH employees approximately 196,000, making the company a  large organisation, research has proven that the average life span of a large  company is approximately 50 years.<ref>Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.</ref> Due to LVMHs exponential revenue growth in  the last 36 years, and assuming that the company is in the maturity stage of  growth which is approximately 50% of a companies lifecycle,<ref name=":1">http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref> I am going to assume a life span of 80 years.
|-
|-
|What is the estimated annual growth of the total addressable  market over the lifecycle of the company?
|What is the estimated annual growth of the total addressable  market over the lifecycle of the company?
|3.38%
|3.38%
|The market is estimated to grow at a 3.38% CAGR (Compound Annual  Growth Rate) in the forecast period of 2023- 2028.
|The market is estimated to grow at a 3.38% CAGR (Compound Annual  Growth Rate) in the forecast period of 2023- 2028.<ref name=":0" />
|-
|-
|What is the estimated company peak market share?
|What is the estimated company peak market share?
Line 1,227: Line 1,264:
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company  revenue?
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company  revenue?
|Gaussian
|Gaussian
|Research has suggested that the revenue pattern of companies  is similar to the pattern produced by the gaussian distribution.
|Research has suggested that the revenue pattern of companies  is similar to the pattern produced by the gaussian distribution.<ref name=":1" />
|-
|What is the estimated standard deviation of company revenue?
|
|
|-
|
|
|
|}
|}


Line 1,260: Line 1,305:
| +/-
| +/-
|}
|}
== Valuation ==
== Valuation ==
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 11.10.01.png|thumb|Unlevered Free Cash Flow [[File:Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 11.10.11.png|thumb|Fixed Assets[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 11.10.21.png|thumb|Net Working Capital[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 11.10.54.png|thumb|Weighted Average of Capital[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 11.11.11.png|thumb|Implied Share Price and Sensitivity Table[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 11.59.35.png|thumb|Base Case, Bear Case, Bull Case]]]]]]]]]]]]
In the following section, there are 2 valuation methods, DCF model and the relative valuation.
For the DCF model, the base case implied share price is $1175.92, which has a 27.64% potential upside; the bull case implied share is 1436.27, which has a 55.90% upside; the bear case implied share is 782.49, which has a 15.07% downside. Therefore, for a weighted average of 50% bull case, 25% bull case and 25% bear case, we get 1142.65, which has a 31.09% upside. We take these weighted average percentage is because the inflation rate remains high, the FED has 95% chance to increase the interested rate in the next FOMC meeting, due to this uncertainty, a conservative prediction is applied. Also, we assumed that all the growth is constant in the next 5 years of projection, taking the average from the past 5 years for the base case. The bull case and bear case is calculated with the earnings in EV/EBITDA and Net Debt/EBITDA, and the Free Cash Flow Equity Yield based on their free cash flow, both earning price target and the FCFE price target are weighted 50% each. Throughout the calculation, we obtained the WACC with 13.33% and the CAPM is 14.08%.
For the relative valuation, 


[[File:Capture10.png|Unlevered Free Cash Flow]]       


[[File:Capture11.png|Fixed Assets]]   


[[File:Capture12.png|Net Working Capital]]       


[[File:Capture13.png|Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)]]       


[[File:Capture14.png|Implied Share Price and Sensitivity Table]]     


[[File:Capture15.png|Base Case, Bear Case, Bull Case]]   


When estimating the expected return on an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the most accurate approach is a DCF. In the following section, there are 2 valuation methods, the DCF model and the relative valuation, both models are used in the report for completeness. 


For the DCF model, the weighted average between the bull case, base case, and bear case obtained $1142.65 share price which has a 31.29% upside.


A simple 50% base case, 25% bull case, and bear case are used because of the uncertainty of the decision of the FOMC on the terminal interest rate. The new reported number on the CPI, consumer price index, has back down to 3% whereas the previous number is 4%. If the FOMC, federal open market committee, does not decrease the interest rate in around September or November, the market will likely be looking at deflation instead. Although the non-Farm payroll has a strong number and a low unemployment rate, the participation rate is much lower than the average, which indicates that the unemployment is not accurately reflected. According to the backtesting research, whenever the FOMC decreases the interest rate, the transition from hawkish to dovish sentiment, resulting in a short squeeze of the stock market and then a big fall, the target is likely to be reached in the next few months when the interest rate is not likely to be increased. A dovish sentiment is an interest rate policy that is more accommodative to stimulate spending in an economy, which is clearly good for the luxury good market.


Also, for the growth rate, the function of (Estimated revenue in the last year which is 2027 divided by Actual revenue in 2018 which is the first)^(1/10) - 1 is used. Whereas all growth is constant in the next 5 years with a constant revenue growth of approximately 16.2%, taken from the average of the revenue growth during the last 4 years. This method was also used to calculate the % change in COGS, Operating expenses, Selling, General and administrative and tax% of EBIT. Resulting in the financial forecast of LVMH of the next 5 financial years.


The risk-free rate takes the US 10-year treasury bond yield rate. The Beta value takes the 5 Year monthly, which has a value of 1.03 which suggests that LVMH moves with more momentum than the S&P 500 stocks. This beta suggests that it’s not a very risky investment as it doesn’t deviate a lot from the market beta of 1. Although theoretically it does increase a portfolios risk by 3% and may increase the expected return.


Looking at the numbers in the DCF model, for the base case, we assumed a constant percentage increase. The China PPI (producer price index ) number is lower than expected, falling by 5.4 percent in June from the previous year, marking the steepest fall since December 2015. Despite the issue remaining from 2022, the revenue and profit numbers remain strong in the Chinese Market in LVMH. When this situation is relieved, the buying power is likely to be released and the consumer discretionary industry is more likely to be getting the attention. The number is likely to be higher than the prediction from using the constant percentage increase.


For the Bear case, the free cash flow to equity has a slight decrease from 2021 to 2022. Although the number remains much higher than in 2020, if the situation persists, the prediction from using the combined result from the free cash flow to equity and Net Debt to EBITDA is likely to be lower.  The free cash flow to equity has just turned positive from 2021, More data from 2023 is needed to check if the trends remain. Furthermore, the Japanese yield curve policy might change on the 28th of July. The Japanese currency Yen is usually borrowed and bought stocks in other markets, such as the US market. The cost would therefore be higher, the target return requires higher expectations on the trade and the market power is likely to be suppressed.


For the Bull case, LVMH and Google announced a strategic partnership to accelerate innovation and develop new cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) solutions in 2021. This creates new, personalized customer experiences that foster long-term growth. LVMH will be able to take actions to improve the overall business efficiency, from customer experience personalization to product development and logistics, on top of the current machine learning trend. Therefore, the earning number increased by 23%, taking the change from 2021 to 2022.


The bull case and bear case are calculated with the earnings in EV/EBITDA and Net Debt/EBITDA, and the Free Cash Flow Equity Yield based on their free cash flow, both earning price target and the FCFE price target are weighted 50% each. Throughout the calculation, we obtained the WACC of 13.33% and the CAPM, capital asset pricing model, is 14.08%, and the difference between ROIC%, return on invested capital, and WACC% is 5%. Furthermore, the CapEx has decreased by 10% every year since 2018, indicating that the company is investing its money in future growth. Suggested as well by a decreasing EBITDA but increasing gross profit. Due to the uncertainty of the predicted value of the CPI, we believed that the actual upside of the share price would be higher, because of the effect of lowering the interest rate for the first time in the third bull phase according to Dow's theory and the transition from hawkish sentiment to dovish sentiment.


For the relative valuation, firstly, its Piotroski F-Score (discrete score between zero and nine used to determine the strength of a firm's financial position) where LVMH has scored a 9. Altman Z-Score (measures the likelihood of a publicly traded company going bankrupt - a value close to 0 suggests a company might be going bankrupt and a value close to 3 suggests a company is in a solid financial position) where LVMH has scored a value of 4.59. The Beneish M-Score indicates that LVMH is not a manipulator on their financial reports.


Secondly, The PE ratio is currently at 30.5, which is just above the median of its history of 24.71, the minimum value of 11.39, and the maximum value of 78.7. Although the PE ratio is ranked worse than 74.97% across the whole retail-cylindrical industry, LVMH has a huge increase in Revenue, EPS, and operating cash flow, indicating that LVMH remains undervalued if this trend continues.


This prediction could be seen by looking at the PEG (Price/ Earnings-to-Growth) value, which has a value of 1.5. The median value in its history is 2.28, which is way lower than the maximum value of 5.65 in its history.


Thirdly, the EV-to-EBITDA is currently at 16.89, which has a similar value to the medium of 12.85. Although it has a higher value than 10, it is significantly lower than its competitors in the industry, where Hermes International SA, St Dupont SA, and Maison Clio Blue SA have the EV-to-EBITDA of 35.02, 124.72, 395.23, this indicating that LVMH is undervalued compared to the industry.


The PS ratio is currently at 5.42, it is near to the medium for the past 10 years of 3.05, and has a similar number comparing to the industry, which is 4.5. This indicating that the LVMH stock is slightly undervalued comparing to its industry.


In summary, both the results from the DCF model and the relative valuation method indicate that LVMH is undervalued, compared to itself in history, the industry, and the potential growth using its free cash flow. LVMH has a potential upside of 31.09% upside.


== Growth Drivers and Catalysts ==
== Growth Drivers and Catalysts ==
LVMH has a strong set of growth catalysts that are attractive to potential investors.  
LVMH has a strong set of growth catalysts that are attractive to potential investors.  


1. '''Digital Transformation and E-commerce''':
Since the beginning of COVID in 2019 and impact on retail shopping, LVMH recognised the trend as luxury goods moved towards digital transformation and invested heavily in its e-commerce. Their commitment to online shopping extended its luxury shopping experience to its customers at home, building a stronger brand image and customer loyalty.  Strong focus on marketing campaigns throughout the pandemic saw the group out compete competitors in terms of growth throughout 2020, attributed to its sales and presence in emerging markets, despite the closure of stores.
LVMH's recognition of the digital transformation in the luxury goods industry has been a pivotal driver of its growth. The company has invested heavily in its e-commerce capabilities, enabling customers to access its luxury shopping experience from the comfort of their homes. By embracing online channels, LVMH has built a stronger brand image and enhanced customer loyalty. Its commitment to digital marketing campaigns during the pandemic enabled the company to outperform competitors and achieve significant growth in 2020, even amidst store closures. The ongoing focus on digital innovation and e-commerce positions LVMH to capitalise on the increasing trend of online luxury retail.
 
2. '''Expansion in Emerging Markets''':
LVMH's strategic expansion into emerging markets has played a crucial role in its continued growth. With stable economies and rising disposable incomes, regions such as Asia (particularly China and Japan) and Brazil<ref>[14]


</ref> offer immense potential for luxury goods consumption. LVMH's presence and investments in these markets have allowed the company to capture new customer segments and grow its market share. The robust revenue growth of 23% across all markets and branches in 2022 underscores LVMH's ability to navigate economic and geopolitical challenges while delivering exceptional performance. Continued expansion in emerging markets remains a significant growth catalyst for LVMH.
The groups presence in emerging markets is, and continues to be, a massive contributor to LVMH growth. As economies stable and disposable income rises, luxury product available to a broader consumer base. LVMH strategic expansion into regions of Asia, such as China and Japan, and Brazil has allowed the group to capture new markets and grow its customer base. In 2022, revenue rose 23% <ref>https://www.lvmh.com/news-documents/press-releases/new-record-year-for-lvmh-in-2022/</ref>across all markets and branches of LVMH, highlighting its ability to perform exceptionally in years effected by economic and geopolitical challenges.  


3. '''Diversified Brand Portfolio''':
LVMH strong and continued performance in the market can also be credited to its offering of a wide range of high end products. This way, the group captures attention in many markets such as; wines and spirits, fashion and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewellery and selective retailing (all sectors saw revenue growth in 2022). The recent acquisition of Tiffany & Co. in 2021 for $15.8 billion is also evidence of the groups continued strong performance in uncertain economic times and the groups focus on diversification, reducing its reliance on specific products and mitigating risk associated with market conditions. LVMH diversification and ability to innovate new products keeps it at the forefront of the luxury goods market.
LVMH's wide range of high-end products across multiple sectors has been instrumental in its sustained growth. The company's portfolio encompasses renowned brands in wines and spirits, fashion and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewellery, and selective retailing. LVMH's diverse offerings cater to various consumer preferences and capture attention in multiple markets. Revenue growth across all sectors in 2022 further exemplifies the strength of LVMH's brand portfolio. The strategic acquisition of Tiffany & Co. in 2021 for $15.8 billion exemplifies the company's commitment to diversification, reducing its reliance on specific products or sectors and mitigating risks associated with market conditions. LVMH's ability to innovate and introduce new products keeps it at the forefront of the luxury goods market.


4. '''Focus on Brand Development and Innovation''':
After a successful year in 2022, LVMH is confident in its pursuit of brand development and innovation through 2023.  
LVMH's emphasis on brand development and innovation solidifies its position as an industry leader. The company remains dedicated to enhancing its brands and pursuing innovation-driven strategies. A notable recent development is the partnership with Epic Games<ref>[15]</ref>, the creator of Unreal Engine and Fortnite. Through this collaboration, LVMH aims to transform its creative pipeline and attract a new customer base. By leveraging Epic Games' powerful 3D creation tools, LVMH can create visually captivating and immersive product experiences. This partnership opens up new digital ecosystems for advertisement campaigns and digital stores, offering customers unique and engaging interactions with LVMH brands. LVMH's focus on brand development and innovation ensures its continued relevance and growth in a rapidly evolving market.


In summary, LVMH's strong set of growth drivers, including its focus on digital transformation, expansion in emerging markets, diversified brand portfolio, and commitment to brand development and innovation, position the company for long-term success. These factors enable LVMH to capture opportunities in the evolving luxury goods landscape, attract a broader customer base, and maintain its position as a leading global luxury conglomerate.
Recent development includes a partnership with Epic Games <ref>https://www.lvmh.com/news-documents/press-releases/lvmh-and-epic-games-announce-strategic-partnership-to-transform-maisons-creative-pipeline-and-customer-experiences/</ref>, creator of Unreal Engine and Fortnite, to help transforms the groups creative pipeline and brings a new type of customer base and immersive product experience. The partnership allows the utilisation of Epic Games powerful 3D creation tools to offer visual experiences, opening new digital ecosystems for advertisement campaigns and digital stores.


== Competitors Comparison ==
== Competitors Comparison ==
Globally, there are mainly two big luxury groups competing with LVMH. They are Kering and Richemont. LVMH has a huge number of brands base, while other companies have unique brands that LVMH does not have, such as fine jewellery and watches, so if LVMH wants to develop all the luxury goods industry, it needs to think about acquiring more fine jewellery/watch brands in order to achieve the status of being the dominant player in the luxury industy.
'''LVMH Overview''': In 2023, LVMH reported a Q1 FY 2023 revenue of 21 billion euros, showing a significant increase of 17% compared to the same period in 2022. LVMH's strength lies in its high level of customer loyalty and diverse portfolio of 75 prestigious brands across various luxury sectors.
'''LVMH Overview''': In 2023, LVMH reported a Q1 FY 2023 revenue of 21 billion euros, showing a significant increase of 17% compared to the same period in 2022. LVMH's strength lies in its high level of customer loyalty and diverse portfolio of 75 prestigious brands across various luxury sectors.


'''Richemont Overview''': Richemont, a key competitor of LVMH, reported a sales revenue of 19.95 billion euros in the first quarter of FY 2023. Richemont's focus on watches and jewellery, particularly through brands like Cartier, IWC, and Van Cleef & Arpels, has contributed to its continued growth.
'''Richemont Overview''': Richemont, a key competitor of LVMH, reported a sales revenue of 19.95 billion euros in the first quarter of FY 2023. Richemont's focus on watches and jewelry, particularly through brands like Cartier, IWC, and Van Cleef & Arpels, has contributed to its continued growth.


'''Kering Overview''': Kering, another significant competitor of LVMH, reported a revenue of 5.077 billion euros in the first quarter of FY 2023. Kering's most prominent brand, Gucci, contributes significantly to its overall revenue. However, Kering has a weak growth rate of 1% compared to Q1 2022 suggests that its performance is not as strong as that of LVMH and Richemont.
'''Kering Overview''': Kering, another significant competitor of LVMH, reported a revenue of 5.077 billion euros in the first quarter of FY 2023. Kering's most prominent brand, Gucci, contributes significantly to its overall revenue. However, Kering has a weak growth rate of 1% compared to Q1 2022 suggests that its performance is not as strong as that of LVMH and Richemont.
Line 1,334: Line 1,360:
'''Strengths of Richemont:'''
'''Strengths of Richemont:'''


1. Focus on watches and jewellery: Richemont's specialization in these sectors has allowed it to become a leader in the industry, attracting customers who specifically seek luxury timepieces and high-end jewellery, and its emphasis on core businesses resonates well with customers who value the culture, history, and pioneer status in the industry.
1. Focus on watches and jewelry: Richemont's specialization in these sectors has allowed it to become a leader in the industry, attracting customers who specifically seek luxury timepieces and high-end jewelry, and its emphasis on core businesses resonates well with customers who value the culture, history, and pioneer status in the industry.


2. Extensive collection of luxury brands: With 26 luxury brands and businesses in its portfolio, Richemont offers a wide range of options to cater to different consumer preferences.
2. Extensive collection of luxury brands: With 26 luxury brands and businesses in its portfolio, Richemont offers a wide range of options to cater to different consumer preferences.
Line 1,346: Line 1,372:
Weaknesses of LVMH in comparison to Richemont:
Weaknesses of LVMH in comparison to Richemont:


1. Less competitive in the jewelry industry: LVMH's presence in the jewelry sector is relatively weaker compared to Richemont. To capture a larger market share and increase profitability, LVMH should consider expanding its focus on jewellery.
1. Less competitive in the jewelry industry: LVMH's presence in the jewelry sector is relatively weaker compared to Richemont. To capture a larger market share and increase profitability, LVMH should consider expanding its focus on jewelry.


2. Sustainability focus: Customers are increasingly concerned about sustainability, and products marketed as environmentally friendly have gained traction.
2. Sustainability focus: Customers are increasingly concerned about sustainability, and products marketed as environmentally friendly have gained traction.
Line 1,352: Line 1,378:
'''Conclusion''':
'''Conclusion''':


1. Richemont could be a big competitor: Based on the revenue data and performance analysis, LVMH remains the market leader in the luxury industry. However, it faces major challenges from Richemont, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. LVMH should focus on expanding its presence in the jewellery industry to compete more effectively with Richemont. Besides, The decision of Richemont to reject the acquisition proposal from LVMH could potentially impact Richemont's stock and attract more attention, particularly from investors who value the "more boutique in core business" mindset.
1. Richemont could be a big competitor: Based on the revenue data and performance analysis, LVMH remains the market leader in the luxury industry. However, it faces major challenges from Richemont, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. LVMH should focus on expanding its presence in the jewelry industry to compete more effectively with Richemont. Besides, The decision of Richemont to reject the acquisition proposal from LVMH could potentially impact Richemont's stock and attract more attention, particularly from investors who value the "more boutique in core business" mindset.
 
2. Geographical Factor: LVMH has a strong geographical presence in the Asia Pacific region, with most sectors and revenue generated from Asia in 2022. Particularly in China, where the Covid policies have allowed for reopening, the spending power of Chinese consumers continues to rise. The total revenue in Asia will be very significant in 2023. Richemont also generates a significant portion of its revenue from the Asian market. The 2023 total revenue in Asia Pacific of Richemont would be positive to be expected. On the other hand, Kering's performance has been negative, experiencing a decline of 7% from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022. The pace of growth was well below that of competitors.


Overall, LVMH's performance is expected to continue to increase, and there is optimism regarding its total revenue for 2023.
Overall, LVMH's performance is expected to continue to increase, and there is optimism regarding its total revenue for 2023.
Line 1,367: Line 1,395:
# '''Supply Chain Disruptions:''' LVMH relies on a complex global supply chain. Disruptions to this chain – such as those caused by natural disasters, geopolitical events, or pandemics – could impact its ability to produce and distribute its products.
# '''Supply Chain Disruptions:''' LVMH relies on a complex global supply chain. Disruptions to this chain – such as those caused by natural disasters, geopolitical events, or pandemics – could impact its ability to produce and distribute its products.
# '''Intellectual Property Risks:''' As with many companies in the fashion industry, LVMH faces risks from counterfeiting and other intellectual property violations, which could harm its brands and its financial performance.
# '''Intellectual Property Risks:''' As with many companies in the fashion industry, LVMH faces risks from counterfeiting and other intellectual property violations, which could harm its brands and its financial performance.
# '''Technology Disruptions''': The rapid pace of technological advancements and digital disruptions pose risks to the luxury goods industry. Failure to effectively adapt to evolving technologies, such as e-commerce platforms, artificial intelligence, and data analytics, could impact LVMH's competitiveness and ability to reach target customers.
# '''Sustainability and Ethical Concerns''': Increasing consumer awareness and expectations regarding sustainability and ethical practices pose risks to companies in the luxury goods sector. Failure to meet these expectations or address environmental and social concerns adequately may harm LVMH's reputation and customer loyalty.
# '''Dependency on Key Personnel''': LVMH's success is partly attributed to the expertise and leadership of key personnel, including executives and creative directors. The loss of key individuals or their departure from the company could disrupt operations, strategic direction, and the ability to sustain growth.


== References and notes ==
== References and notes ==
Please note that all contributions to Stockhub may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see Stockhub:Copyrights for details). Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel Editing help (opens in new window)