Editing LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne

Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.

The edit can be undone. Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then publish the changes below to finish undoing the edit.

Latest revision Your text
Line 531: Line 531:


=== Total Addressable Market ===
=== Total Addressable Market ===
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the luxury goods global market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6<sup>th</sup> July 2023) in terms of revenue, is US$354.80bn, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.38% in the forecast period of 2023- 2027.<ref name=":0">Luxury Goods - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast</ref>
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the luxury goods global market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6<sup>th</sup> July 2023) in terms of revenue, is US$354.80bn, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.38% in the forecast period of 2023- 2028.<ref name=":0">Luxury Goods - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast</ref>
 
LVMH is the global leader in the luxury goods global market, having a market share of approximately 25% in terms of annual revenue. It operates in all geographic regions and covers all business groups of the luxury goods market. Making its Serviceable Available Market and Serviceable Obtainable Market equal to the Total Addressable Market.


== Financial Highlights <ref name=":2" /> ==
== Financial Highlights <ref name=":2" /> ==
Line 621: Line 619:


==== Revenue by business group ====
==== Revenue by business group ====
[[File:Capture4.png|thumb|Revenue by business group, as a % of total revenue.|left]]


[[File:Capture4.png|Revenue by business group, as a % of total revenue.]]


==== Revenue by geographic region delivery ====
==== Revenue by geographic region delivery ====


[[File:Revenue by region.png|Revenue by geographic region of delivery, in %]]
 
 
 
 
[[File:Revenue by region.png|thumb|Revenue by geographic region of delivery, in %|left]]
 
 
 
 
 
 


== Financial Statements<ref>lvmh_2022_annual-report.pdf (lvmh-static.com)</ref> ==
== Financial Statements<ref>lvmh_2022_annual-report.pdf (lvmh-static.com)</ref> ==
Line 785: Line 806:
|'''26,720'''
|'''26,720'''
|}
|}
[[File:LVMH Annual Income Statement.png|left|thumb|465x465px]]


[[File:LVMH Annual Income Statement.png]]


=== LVMH's Annual Balance Sheet ===
=== LVMH's Annual Balance Sheet ===
Line 980: Line 1,018:
|'''35,147'''
|'''35,147'''
|}
|}
[[File:LVMH Balance Sheet.png|left|thumb|443x443px]]


[[File:LVMH Balance Sheet.png]]


=== LVMH's Cash Flow Statement ===
=== LVMH's Cash Flow Statement ===
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!'''EUR''' €,  Millions
!'''EUR''' €,  Millions
Line 1,191: Line 1,246:
|'''10,113'''
|'''10,113'''
|}
|}
[[File:Cash Flow Statement.png|left|thumb|365x365px|Cash Flow Summary]]


[[File:Cash Flow Statement.png|Cash Flow Summary]


=== Financial Forecast ===
=== Financial Forecast ===
Line 1,260: Line 1,327:
| +/-
| +/-
|}
|}
== Valuation ==


[[File:Capture10.png|Unlevered Free Cash Flow]]       


[[File:Capture11.png|Fixed Assets]]   


[[File:Capture12.png|Net Working Capital]]       


[[File:Capture13.png|Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)]]         
== Valuation ==
[[File:Capture10.png|left|thumb|600x600px|Unlevered Free Cash Flow]]         
 
[[File:Capture11.png|left|thumb|600x600px|Fixed Assets]]   


[[File:Capture14.png|Implied Share Price and Sensitivity Table]]      
[[File:Capture12.png|left|thumb|600x600px|Net Working Capital]]      


[[File:Capture15.png|Base Case, Bear Case, Bull Case]]    
[[File:Capture13.png|left|thumb|450x450px|Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)]]      


When estimating the expected return on an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the most accurate approach is a DCF. In the following section, there are 2 valuation methods, the DCF model and the relative valuation, both models are used in the report for completeness. 
[[File:Capture14.png|left|thumb|600x600px|Implied Share Price and Sensitivity Table]]     


For the DCF model, the weighted average between the bull case, base case, and bear case obtained $1142.65 share price which has a 31.29% upside.
[[File:Capture15.png|left|thumb|600x600px|Base Case, Bear Case, Bull Case]]   


A simple 50% base case, 25% bull case, and bear case are used because of the uncertainty of the decision of the FOMC on the terminal interest rate. The new reported number on the CPI, consumer price index, has back down to 3% whereas the previous number is 4%. If the FOMC, federal open market committee, does not decrease the interest rate in around September or November, the market will likely be looking at deflation instead. Although the non-Farm payroll has a strong number and a low unemployment rate, the participation rate is much lower than the average, which indicates that the unemployment is not accurately reflected. According to the backtesting research, whenever the FOMC decreases the interest rate, the transition from hawkish to dovish sentiment, resulting in a short squeeze of the stock market and then a big fall, the target is likely to be reached in the next few months when the interest rate is not likely to be increased. A dovish sentiment is an interest rate policy that is more accommodative to stimulate spending in an economy, which is clearly good for the luxury good market.
In the following section, there are 2 valuation methods, the DCF model and the relative valuation.  


Also, for the growth rate, the function of (Estimated revenue in the last year which is 2027 divided by Actual revenue in 2018 which is the first)^(1/10) - 1 is used. Whereas all growth is constant in the next 5 years with a constant revenue growth of approximately 16.2%, taken from the average of the revenue growth during the last 4 years. This method was also used to calculate the % change in COGS, Operating expenses, Selling, General and administrative and tax% of EBIT. Resulting in the financial forecast of LVMH of the next 5 financial years.
For the DCF model, the weighted average between the bull case, base case, and bear case obtained $1142.65 which has a 31.29% upside.


The risk-free rate takes the US 10-year treasury bond yield rate. The Beta value takes the 5 Year monthly, which has a value of 1.03 which suggests that LVMH moves with more momentum than the S&P 500 stocks. This beta suggests that it’s not a very risky investment as it doesn’t deviate a lot from the market beta of 1. Although theoretically it does increase a portfolios risk by 3% and may increase the expected return.
A simple 50% base case, 25% bull case, and bear case are used because of the uncertainty of the decision of the FOMC on the terminal interest rate. The new reported number on the CPI has back down to 3% whereas the previous number is 4%. If the FOMC does not decrease the interest rate in around September or November, the market will likely be looking at deflation instead. Although the non-Farm payroll has a strong number and a low unemployment rate, the participation rate is much lower than the average, which indicates that the unemployment is not accurately reflected. According to the backtesting research, whenever the FOMC decreases the interest rate, the transition from hawkish to dovish sentiment, resulting in a short squeeze of the stock market and then a big fall, the target is likely to be reached in the next few months when the interest rate is not likely to be increased. Also, for the growth rate, the function of (Estimated revenue in the last year which is 2027 divided by Actual revenue in 2018 which is the first)^(1/10) - 1 is used. The risk-free rate takes the US 10-year treasury bond yield rate. The Beta value takes the 5 Year monthly.


Looking at the numbers in the DCF model, for the base case, we assumed a constant percentage increase. The China PPI (producer price index ) number is lower than expected, falling by 5.4 percent in June from the previous year, marking the steepest fall since December 2015. Despite the issue remaining from 2022, the revenue and profit numbers remain strong in the Chinese Market in LVMH. When this situation is relieved, the buying power is likely to be released and the consumer discretionary industry is more likely to be getting the attention. The number is likely to be higher than the prediction from using the constant percentage increase.


For the Bear case, the free cash flow to equity has a slight decrease from 2021 to 2022. Although the number remains much higher than in 2020, if the situation persists, the prediction from using the combined result from the free cash flow to equity and Net Debt to EBITDA is likely to be lower.  The free cash flow to equity has just turned positive from 2021, More data from 2023 is needed to check if the trends remain. Furthermore, the Japanese yield curve policy might change on the 28th of July. The Japanese currency Yen is usually borrowed and bought stocks in other markets, such as the US market. The cost would therefore be higher, the target return requires higher expectations on the trade and the market power is likely to be suppressed.
Looking at the numbers in the DCF model, for the base case, we assumed a constant percentage increase. The China PPI number is lower than expected, falling by 5.4 percent in June from the previous year, marking the steepest fall since December 2015. Despite the issue remaining from 2022, the revenue and profit numbers remain strong in the Chinese Market in LVMH. When this situation is relieved, the buying power is likely to be released and the consumer discretionary industry is more likely to be getting the attention. The number is likely to be higher than the prediction from using the constant percentage increase.


For the Bull case, LVMH and Google announced a strategic partnership to accelerate innovation and develop new cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) solutions in 2021. This creates new, personalized customer experiences that foster long-term growth. LVMH will be able to take actions to improve the overall business efficiency, from customer experience personalization to product development and logistics, on top of the current machine learning trend. Therefore, the earning number increased by 23%, taking the change from 2021 to 2022.


The bull case and bear case are calculated with the earnings in EV/EBITDA and Net Debt/EBITDA, and the Free Cash Flow Equity Yield based on their free cash flow, both earning price target and the FCFE price target are weighted 50% each. Throughout the calculation, we obtained the WACC of 13.33% and the CAPM, capital asset pricing model, is 14.08%, and the difference between ROIC%, return on invested capital, and WACC% is 5%. Furthermore, the CapEx has decreased by 10% every year since 2018, indicating that the company is investing its money in future growth. Suggested as well by a decreasing EBITDA but increasing gross profit. Due to the uncertainty of the predicted value of the CPI, we believed that the actual upside of the share price would be higher, because of the effect of lowering the interest rate for the first time in the third bull phase according to Dow's theory and the transition from hawkish sentiment to dovish sentiment.


For the relative valuation, firstly, its Piotroski F-Score (discrete score between zero and nine used to determine the strength of a firm's financial position) where LVMH has scored a 9. Altman Z-Score (measures the likelihood of a publicly traded company going bankrupt - a value close to 0 suggests a company might be going bankrupt and a value close to 3 suggests a company is in a solid financial position) where LVMH has scored a value of 4.59. The Beneish M-Score indicates that LVMH is not a manipulator on their financial reports.  
For the Bear case, the free cash flow to equity has a slight decrease from 2021 to 2022. Although the number remains much higher than in 2020, if the situation persists, the prediction from using the combined result from the free cash flow to equity and Net Debt to EBITDA is likely to be lower. Also. The free cash flow to equity has just turned positive from 2021, More data from 2023 is needed to check if the trends remain. Furthermore, the Japanese yield curve policy might change on the 28th of July. The Japanese currency Yen is usually borrowed and bought stocks in other markets, such as the US market. The cost would therefore be higher, the target return requires higher expectations on the trade and the market power is likely to be suppressed.


Secondly, The PE ratio is currently at 30.5, which is just above the median of its history of 24.71, the minimum value of 11.39, and the maximum value of 78.7. Although the PE ratio is ranked worse than 74.97% across the whole retail-cylindrical industry, LVMH has a huge increase in Revenue, EPS, and operating cash flow, indicating that LVMH remains undervalued if this trend continues.


This prediction could be seen by looking at the PEG (Price/ Earnings-to-Growth) value, which has a value of 1.5. The median value in its history is 2.28, which is way lower than the maximum value of 5.65 in its history.  
For the Bull case, LVMH and Google announced a strategic partnership to accelerate innovation and develop new cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) solutions in 2021. This creates new, personalized customer experiences that foster long-term growth. LVMH will be able to take actions to improve the overall business efficiency, from customer experience personalization to product development and logistics, on top of the current machine learning trend. Therefore, the earning number increased by 23%, taking the change from 2021 to 2022.


Thirdly, the EV-to-EBITDA is currently at 16.89, which has a similar value to the medium of 12.85. Although it has a higher value than 10, it is significantly lower than its competitors in the industry, where Hermes International SA, St Dupont SA, and Maison Clio Blue SA have the EV-to-EBITDA of 35.02, 124.72, 395.23, this indicating that LVMH is undervalued compared to the industry.  
The bull case and bear case are calculated with the earnings in EV/EBITDA and Net Debt/EBITDA, and the Free Cash Flow Equity Yield based on their free cash flow, both earning price target and the FCFE price target are weighted 50% each. Throughout the calculation, we obtained the WACC of 13.33% and the CAPM is 14.08%, and the difference between ROIC% and WACC% is 5%. Furthermore, the CapEx has decreased by 10% every year since 2018, indicating that the company is investing its money in future growth. Due to the uncertainty of the predicted value of the CPI, we believed that the actual upside of the share price would be higher, because of the effect of lowering the interest rate for the first time in the third bull phase according to Dow's theory and the transition from hawkish sentiment to dovish sentiment.


The PS ratio is currently at 5.42, it is near to the medium for the past 10 years of 3.05, and has a similar number comparing to the industry, which is 4.5. This indicating that the LVMH stock is slightly undervalued comparing to its industry.
For the relative valuation, firstly, its Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, and Beneish M-Score have the score of 9, 4.59, and not manipulator respectively, indicating that LVMH is not a manipulator on their financial reports. Secondly, The PE ratio is currently at 30.5, which is just above the median of its history of 24.71, the minimum value of 11.39, and the maximum value of 78.7. Although the PE ratio is ranked worse than 74.97% across the whole retail-cylindrical industry, LVMH has a huge increase in Revenue, EPS, and operating cash flow, indicating that LVMH remains undervalued if this trend continues. This prediction could be seen by looking at the PEG value, which has a value of 1.5. The median value in its history is 2.28, which is way lower than the maximum value of 5.65 in its history. Thirdly, the EV-to-EBITDA is currently at 16.89, which has a similar value to the medium of 12.85. Although it has a higher value than 10, it is significantly lower than its competitors in the industry, where Hermes International SA, St Dupont SA, and Maison Clio Blue SA have the EV-to-EBITDA of 35.02, 124.72, 395.23, this indicating that LVMH is undervalued compared to the industry. The PS ratio is currently at 5.42, it is near to the medium for the past 10 years of 3.05, and has a similar number comparing to the industry, which is 4.5. This indicating that the LVMH stock is slightly undervalued comparing to its industry.


In summary, both the results from the DCF model and the relative valuation method indicate that LVMH is undervalued, compared to itself in history, the industry, and the potential growth using its free cash flow. LVMH has a potential upside of 31.09% upside.
In summary, both the results from the DCF model and the relative valuation method indicate that LVMH is undervalued, compared to itself in history, the industry, and the potential growth using its free cash flow. LVMH has a potential upside of 31.09% upside.
Line 1,324: Line 1,386:


== Competitors Comparison ==
== Competitors Comparison ==
Globally, there are mainly two big luxury groups competing with LVMH. They are Kering and Richemont. LVMH has a huge number of brands base, while other companies have unique brands that LVMH does not have, such as fine jewellery and watches, so if LVMH wants to develop all the luxury goods industry, it needs to think about acquiring more fine jewellery/watch brands in order to achieve the status of being the dominant player in the luxury industy.
'''LVMH Overview''': In 2023, LVMH reported a Q1 FY 2023 revenue of 21 billion euros, showing a significant increase of 17% compared to the same period in 2022. LVMH's strength lies in its high level of customer loyalty and diverse portfolio of 75 prestigious brands across various luxury sectors.
'''LVMH Overview''': In 2023, LVMH reported a Q1 FY 2023 revenue of 21 billion euros, showing a significant increase of 17% compared to the same period in 2022. LVMH's strength lies in its high level of customer loyalty and diverse portfolio of 75 prestigious brands across various luxury sectors.


Line 1,353: Line 1,413:


1. Richemont could be a big competitor: Based on the revenue data and performance analysis, LVMH remains the market leader in the luxury industry. However, it faces major challenges from Richemont, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. LVMH should focus on expanding its presence in the jewellery industry to compete more effectively with Richemont. Besides, The decision of Richemont to reject the acquisition proposal from LVMH could potentially impact Richemont's stock and attract more attention, particularly from investors who value the "more boutique in core business" mindset.
1. Richemont could be a big competitor: Based on the revenue data and performance analysis, LVMH remains the market leader in the luxury industry. However, it faces major challenges from Richemont, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. LVMH should focus on expanding its presence in the jewellery industry to compete more effectively with Richemont. Besides, The decision of Richemont to reject the acquisition proposal from LVMH could potentially impact Richemont's stock and attract more attention, particularly from investors who value the "more boutique in core business" mindset.
2. Geographical Factor: LVMH has a strong geographical presence in the Asia Pacific region, with most sectors and revenue generated from Asia in 2022. Particularly in China, where the Covid policies have allowed for reopening, the spending power of Chinese consumers continues to rise. The total revenue in Asia will be very significant in 2023. Richemont also generates a significant portion of its revenue from the Asian market. The 2023 total revenue in Asia Pacific of Richemont would be positive to be expected. On the other hand, Kering's performance has been negative, experiencing a decline of 7% from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022. The pace of growth was well below that of competitors.


Overall, LVMH's performance is expected to continue to increase, and there is optimism regarding its total revenue for 2023.
Overall, LVMH's performance is expected to continue to increase, and there is optimism regarding its total revenue for 2023.
Please note that all contributions to Stockhub may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see Stockhub:Copyrights for details). Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel Editing help (opens in new window)