Editing Sareum Holdings plc

== Summary ==

Sareum Holdings plc is a biopharmaceutical company that specializes in discovering and developing new therapeutic drugs. The company focuses primarily on cancer and autoimmune diseases and is known for leveraging its proprietary drug discovery platform to identify and design new small molecule compounds with therapeutic potential.

The company is based in the United Kingdom and operates mainly in the pre-clinical and early clinical phases of drug development. Sareum seeks to partner with larger pharmaceutical organizations to advance its compounds through the development pipeline and into commercialization.

=Operations=

==How the idea of the company came about?==

Sareum Holdings plc was conceptualized from the aim to discover and develop innovative therapeutic drugs for cancer and autoimmune diseases. It emerged from the identification of the need for more targeted and effective treatments within these widespread and impactful health conditions.

==Mission==

The mission of Sareum Holdings is to leverage its proprietary drug discovery platform to generate novel small molecule therapeutic candidates that can provide significant improvements over current treatment options for patients suffering from cancer and autoimmune diseases.

==Main offerings==

# Discovery and development of innovative small molecule drugs.
# Therapies targeting cancer and autoimmune diseases.
# Partnership opportunities for co-development and commercialization of their drug candidates.
# Research and development services to identify and develop kinase inhibitors.

==Current strategy==

The current strategy of Sareum Holdings plc revolves around advancing their lead drug development programs to clinical trials, securing partnerships with pharmaceutical entities to enhance development and commercializing efforts, and continuing research to expand their portfolio of therapeutic candidates.

==Team==

The key players at Sareum encompass experienced individuals with a strong background in biopharmaceuticals, research, and development. Notably, the team consists of:

# Dr. Tim Mitchell - CEO, expertise in drug discovery and development.
# Dr. John Reader - CSO, oversees research and development activities.
# Michael Owen - Non-executive Chairman, brings extensive leadership experience.
# Other scientific experts and experienced professionals in finance and operations.

=Market=

Sareum Holdings plc operates in the biotech and pharmaceutical market, focusing on the discovery and development of innovative drugs for cancer and autoimmune diseases. Their market can be further segmented as follows:

# Oncology Market: Sareum focuses on developing therapies targeting cancers with significant unmet medical needs. The company seeks to address various forms of cancer through its drug development programs.
# Autoimmune Disease Therapeutics Market: Sareum is also engaged in creating treatments for immune-mediated diseases, tapping into the growing demand for new and effective autoimmune therapies.
# Research and Development: Sareum operates in the R&D sector of pharma, with its efforts in early-stage discovery and partnerships with other pharmaceutical entities to further drug development and commercialization.

Its target market is global, with a focus on regions that have strong patent protections and established regulatory frameworks for drug approval, such as the United States, Europe, and parts of Asia. As Sareum's products progress through clinical trials, their market potential also includes partnerships with larger pharma companies for further development and distribution.

=Competition=

Sareum Holdings plc operates in the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the discovery and development of innovative drug candidates aimed at cancers and autoimmune diseases. The competitors of Sareum Holdings plc typically include other biotech and pharmaceutical companies working on similar drug targets or within the same therapeutic areas. Some of these competitors might be:

# AstraZeneca plc
# GlaxoSmithKline plc
# Roche Holding AG
# Novartis AG
# Merck & Co., Inc.
# Bristol Myers Squibb Company
# Incyte Corporation
# Nektar Therapeutics
# Blueprint Medicines Corporation

It is important to note, however, that the competitive landscape is dynamic and can change as companies progress through drug development, achieve regulatory approvals, form strategic partnerships, or shift their research focus.

=Financials=
{| class="wikitable"
|+Financials
!Year
!1
!2
!3
!4
!5
!6
!7
!8
!9
!10
!11
!12
!13
!14
!15
!16
!17
!18
!19
!20
!21
!22
!23
!24
!25
!26
!27
!28
!29
!30
|-
! colspan="31" |Total
|-
| colspan="31" |Revenue ($1,000s)
|-
|Orphan Drug Tax Credits
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|                    -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|Product Revenue
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|           786,126
|        1,619,419
|        1,668,002
|        1,718,042
|        1,769,583
|        1,822,671
|        1,877,351
|        1,933,671
|        1,991,681
|        2,051,432
|        2,112,975
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
| colspan="31" |Costs ($1,000s)
|-
|Manufacturing & Marketing (0%)
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|In-licensing Royalty (75%)
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|           589,594
|        1,214,564
|        1,251,001
|        1,288,531
|        1,327,187
|        1,367,003
|        1,408,013
|        1,450,253
|        1,493,761
|        1,538,574
|        1,584,731
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|Clinical Trials
|                  -  
|            3,000
|            7,500
|            7,500
|             25,000
|             25,000
|             25,000
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|Animal Studies
|                  -  
|            1,000
|            1,000
|            1,000
|               1,000
|               1,000
|               1,000
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|FDA Fees
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                 619
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|NDA/BLA Preparation Fees
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|               1,000
|               1,000
|                      -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|Overheads
|            4,000
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                  -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                      -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|                     -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|          -  
|-
|Net Cash Flow
| -            4,000
| -            4,000
| -            8,500
| -            8,500
| -             26,000
| -             26,000
| -             26,000
| -               1,619
| -               1,000
|           196,531
|           404,855
|           417,000
|           429,510
|           442,396
|           455,668
|           469,338
|           483,418
|           497,920
|           512,858
|           528,244
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|-
|NPV
|        636,856
|        736,984
|        852,132
|        989,727
|        1,147,961
|        1,350,055
|        1,582,463
|        1,849,733
|        2,129,055
|        2,449,563
|        2,590,987
|        2,514,052
|        2,411,609
|        2,279,413
|        2,112,570
|        1,905,438
|        1,651,515
|        1,343,312
|           972,200
|           528,244
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|-
|Risk-added Cash Flow
| -          40,000
| -          20,000
| -          28,333
| -          28,333
| -             38,806
| -             38,806
| -             38,806
| -               1,999
| -               1,235
|           196,531
|           404,855
|           417,000
|           429,510
|           442,396
|           455,668
|           469,338
|           483,418
|           497,920
|           512,858
|           528,244
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|-
|rNPV
|          53,946
|        133,276
|        236,801
|        282,096
|           746,348
|           888,200
|        1,051,330
|        1,497,811
|        1,724,345
|        2,449,563
|        2,590,987
|        2,514,052
|        2,411,609
|        2,279,413
|        2,112,570
|        1,905,438
|        1,651,515
|        1,343,312
|           972,200
|           528,244
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|           -  
|-
! colspan="31" |SDC - 1801
|-
|Development Stage
|Preclinical
|Phase 1
|Phase 2
|Phase 2
|Phase 3
|Phase 3
|Phase 3
|Approval
|Approval
|Ramp
|Ramp
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching Revenue
|10%
|20%
|30%
|30%
|67%
|67%
|67%
|81%
|81%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|-
| colspan="31" |Revenue ($1,000s)
|-
|Orphan Drug Tax Credits
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Product Revenue
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|393,063
|809709.619
|834000.907
|859020.934
|884791.56
|911335.31
|938675.37
|966835.63
|995840.7
|1025715.9
|1056487.4
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
| colspan="31" |Costs ($1,000s)
|-
|Manufacturing & Marketing (0%)
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|In-licensing Royalty (75%)
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|294,797
|607282.214
|625500.68
|644265.701
|663593.67
|683501.48
|704006.53
|725126.72
|746880.52
|769286.94
|792365.55
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Clinical Trials
| -
|1,500
|3,750
|3,750
|12,500
|12,500
|12,500
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Animal Studies
| -
|500
|500
|500
|500
|500
|500
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|FDA Fees
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|310
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|NDA/BLA Preparation Fees
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|500
|500
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Overheads
|2,000
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Net Cash Flow
|(2,000)
|(2,000)
|(4,250)
|(4,250)
|(13,000)
|(13,000)
|(13,000)
|(810)
|(500)
|98,266
|202,427
|208,500
|214,755
|221,198
|227,834
|234,669
|241,709
|248,960
|256,429
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
|NPV
|318,428
|368,492
|426,066
|494,863
|573,981
|675,028
|791,232
|924,866
|1,064,528
|1,224,782
|1,295,493
|1,257,026
|1,205,804
|1,139,707
|1,056,285
|952,719
|825,758
|671,656
|486,100
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
|Risk-added Cash Flow
|(20,000)
|(10,000)
|(14,167)
|(14,167)
|(19,403)
|(19,403)
|(19,403)
|(1,000)
|(617)
|98,266
|202,427
|208,500
|214,755
|221,198
|227,834
|234,669
|241,709
|248,960
|256,429
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
|rNPV
|26,973
|66,638
|118,401
|141,048
|373,174
|444,100
|525,665
|748,905
|862,172
|1,224,782
|1,295,493
|1,257,026
|1,205,804
|1,139,707
|1,056,285
|952,719
|825,758
|671,656
|486,100
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
! colspan="31" |SDC - 1802
|-
|Development Stage
|Preclinical
|Phase 1
|Phase 2
|Phase 2
|Phase 3
|Phase 3
|Phase 3
|Approval
|Approval
|Ramp
|Ramp
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Revenue
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|Off Patent
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching Revenue
|10%
|20%
|30%
|30%
|67%
|67%
|67%
|81%
|81%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|100%
|-
| colspan="31" |Revenue ($1,000s)
|-
|Orphan Drug Tax Credits
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Product Revenue
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|393,063
|809709.619
|834000.907
|859020.934
|884791.56
|911335.31
|938675.37
|966835.63
|995840.7
|1025715.9
|1056487.4
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
| colspan="31" |Costs ($1,000s)
|-
|Manufacturing & Marketing (0%)
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|In-licensing Royalty (75%)
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|294,797
|607282.214
|625500.68
|644265.701
|663593.67
|683501.48
|704006.53
|725126.72
|746880.52
|769286.94
|792365.55
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Clinical Trials
| -
|1,500
|3,750
|3,750
|12,500
|12,500
|12,500
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Animal Studies
| -
|500
|500
|500
|500
|500
|500
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|FDA Fees
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|310
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|NDA/BLA Preparation Fees
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|500
|500
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Overheads
|2,000
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Net Cash Flow
|(2,000)
|(2,000)
|(4,250)
|(4,250)
|(13,000)
|(13,000)
|(13,000)
|(810)
|(500)
|98,266
|202,427
|208,500
|214,755
|221,198
|227,834
|234,669
|241,709
|248,960
|256,429
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
|NPV
|318,428
|368,492
|426,066
|494,863
|573,981
|675,028
|791,232
|924,866
|1,064,528
|1,224,782
|1,295,493
|1,257,026
|1,205,804
|1,139,707
|1,056,285
|952,719
|825,758
|671,656
|486,100
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
|Risk-added Cash Flow
|(20,000)
|(10,000)
|(14,167)
|(14,167)
|(19,403)
|(19,403)
|(19,403)
|(1,000)
|(617)
|98,266
|202,427
|208,500
|214,755
|221,198
|227,834
|234,669
|241,709
|248,960
|256,429
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|-
|rNPV
|26,973
|66,638
|118,401
|141,048
|373,174
|444,100
|525,665
|748,905
|862,172
|1,224,782
|1,295,493
|1,257,026
|1,205,804
|1,139,707
|1,056,285
|952,719
|825,758
|671,656
|486,100
|264,122
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
| -
|}


{| class="wikitable"
|+Assumptions
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
! colspan="3" |SDC - 1801
|-
|Orphan drug?
|No
|Orphan if <200,000 U.S. patients
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Preclinical'''
|-
|Duration
|1
|
|-
|Annual Cost
|$2,000,000
|8  Scientists at $250,000 per scientist
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|10%
|
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Clinical  Phase 1'''
|-
|Duration
|1
|
|-
|Number of Subjects
|60
|20-80
|-
|Cost Per Patient
|$25,000
|$8,000-15,000
|-
|Animal Studies Phase 1
|$500,000
|
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|20%
|20% for a chemical  pharmaceutical
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Clinical  Phase 2'''
|-
|Duration
|2
|
|-
|Number of Subjects
|300
|100-300
|-
|Cost Per Patient
|$25,000
|$8,000-15,000
|-
|Animal Studies Phase 2
|$1,000,000
|
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|30%
|30% for a chemical  pharmaceutical
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Clinical  Phase 3'''
|-
|Duration
|3
|
|-
|Number of Subjects
|3000
|1,000-5,000
|-
|Cost Per Patient
|$12,500
|$4,000-7,500
|-
|Animal Studies Phase 3
|$1,500,000
|
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|67%
|67% for a chemical  pharmaceutical
|-
|'''Approval'''
|
|
|-
|Duration
|2
|0.5-1 for  fast-track
|-
|FDA Fees (PDUFA II)
|$309,647
|
|-
|NDA/BLA Preparation Fees
|$1,000,000
|$500,000-1,000,000
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|81%
|
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Financials'''
|-
|Patient  Population
|2,000,000
|
|-
|Annual Revenue Per Patient
|$13,000
|
|-
|Peak Market Penetration
|3%
|
|-
|Patient Polpulation Growth  Rate
|2%
|
|-
|Ramp to  Market Peak
|2
|Maximum 4  Years
|-
|Discount Rate
|15%
|
|-
|In-licensing Royalty Rate
|75%
|
|-
|Manufacturing and Marketing  Offset
|0%
|
|-
|Year Patent Protection and  Revenues End
|21
|
|-
|Annual Ramp Overhead (Other  Costs)
|
|
|-
|Annual Peak Revenue Overhead  (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
! colspan="3" |SDC - 1802
|-
|Orphan drug?
|No
|Orphan if <200,000 U.S. patients
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Preclinical'''
|-
|Duration
|1
|
|-
|Annual Cost
|$2,000,000
|8  Scientists at $250,000 per scientist
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|10%
|
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Clinical  Phase 1'''
|-
|Duration
|1
|
|-
|Number of Subjects
|60
|20-80
|-
|Cost Per Patient
|$25,000
|$8,000-15,000
|-
|Animal Studies Phase 1
|$500,000
|
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|20%
|20% for a chemical  pharmaceutical
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Clinical  Phase 2'''
|-
|Duration
|2
|
|-
|Number of Subjects
|300
|100-300
|-
|Cost Per Patient
|$25,000
|$8,000-15,000
|-
|Animal Studies Phase 2
|$1,000,000
|
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|30%
|30% for a chemical  pharmaceutical
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Clinical  Phase 3'''
|-
|Duration
|3
|
|-
|Number of Subjects
|3000
|1,000-5,000
|-
|Cost Per Patient
|$12,500
|$4,000-7,500
|-
|Animal Studies Phase 3
|$1,500,000
|
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|67%
|67% for a chemical  pharmaceutical
|-
|'''Approval'''
|
|
|-
|Duration
|2
|0.5-1 for  fast-track
|-
|FDA Fees (PDUFA II)
|$309,647
|
|-
|NDA/BLA Preparation Fees
|$1,000,000
|$500,000-1,000,000
|-
|Annual Overhead (Other Costs)
|
|
|-
|Likelihood of Reaching  Revenue
|81%
|
|-
| colspan="3" |'''Financials'''
|-
|Patient  Population
|2,000,000
|
|-
|Annual Revenue Per Patient
|$13,000
|
|-
|Peak Market Penetration
|3%
|
|-
|Patient Polpulation Growth  Rate
|2%
|
|-
|Ramp to  Market Peak
|2
|Maximum 4  Years
|-
|Discount Rate
|15%
|
|-
|In-licensing Royalty Rate
|75%
|
|-
|Manufacturing and Marketing  Offset
|0%
|
|-
|Year Patent Protection and  Revenues End
|21
|
|-
|Annual Ramp Overhead (Other  Costs)
|
|
|-
|Annual Peak Revenue Overhead  (Other Costs)
|
|
|}
=Risks=

As with any investment, investing in Sareum carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Sareum's adjusted beta (i.e. 0.25), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sareum is 'low'.

Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'low' risk, it must have a beta value of less than 0.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.

The key risks can be found below. For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to unfavourable outcomes from its clinical trials (i.e. clinical trials risk).

==Drug development risk==

1. Clinical Trials: The success of Sareum relies heavily on the results of clinical trials. Unfavorable outcomes can impact the company's value.

2. Regulatory Approval: There is no guarantee that Sareum's products will receive the necessary regulatory approvals, which are essential for commercialization.

==Financial risk==

1. Funding Requirements: Sareum may require additional financing to continue its operations, which could dilute existing shareholders or lead to increased debt.

2. Revenue Dependence: As a biotech company, Sareum may have limited sources of revenue and could be heavily reliant on the success of a single product or a small portfolio of products.

==Market and competition risk==
1. Market Competition: Sareum operates in a highly competitive industry, and any advances by competitors can impact its market position.

2. Market Penetration: Successfully commercializing products requires effective marketing and sales strategies, which can be challenging for smaller companies.

==Intellectual property risk==

1. Patent Protection: The ability of Sareum to protect its intellectual property through patents and prevent infringement is crucial to its success.

2. Dependence on Licensing: Sareum's operations might depend on licenses from third parties, which could be subject to renegotiation or termination.

==Operational risk==

1. Management Team: Sareum's success is partly dependent on the expertise and experience of its management team. Any changes could disrupt operations.

2. Research and Development: The lengthy and uncertain R&D process in the biotech field poses significant operational risks.

==External risks==

1. Economic Conditions: Economic downturns can affect the availability of capital and the overall investment climate.

2. Regulatory Changes: Changes in healthcare laws, policies, and regulatory environment can pose compliance challenges and affect profitability.

==Valuation==

=== What's the expected return of an investment in the company? ===
The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is ccc%, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £ccc in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

=== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which valuation model do you want to use?
|Discounted cash flow
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report).
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Stockhub
|The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub users (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so the Stockhub users suggest using those.
|-
|Discount rate (%)
|5.98%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|£25.65 million
|As at 24th February 2024, the current value of its company at £25.65 million.
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and five years time
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf</ref> Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}

== Appendix ==

=== Sareum Holdings adjusted beta calculation ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Date
!iShares MSCI World ETF unit price (USD)
!Sareum share price (GBP)
!iShares MSCI World ETF unit price change (%)
!Sareum share price change (%)
|-
|01/03/2019
|88.79
|38.75
|
|
|-
|01/04/2019
|92.09
|37.5
|3.72%
| -3.23%
|-
|01/05/2019
|86.76
|29.75
| -5.79%
| -20.67%
|-
|01/06/2019
|91.02
|21.75
|4.91%
| -26.89%
|-
|01/07/2019
|91.86
|20.5
|0.92%
| -5.75%
|-
|01/08/2019
|89.84
|17
| -2.20%
| -17.07%
|-
|01/09/2019
|91.78
|19.25
|2.16%
|13.24%
|-
|01/10/2019
|94.12
|17
|2.55%
| -11.69%
|-
|01/11/2019
|96.76
|18.25
|2.80%
|7.35%
|-
|01/12/2019
|98.78
|17.75
|2.09%
| -2.74%
|-
|01/01/2020
|97.73
|20.5
| -1.06%
|15.49%
|-
|01/02/2020
|89.67
|15.75
| -8.25%
| -23.17%
|-
|01/03/2020
|77.93
|19
| -13.09%
|20.63%
|-
|01/04/2020
|86.36
|43.25
|10.82%
|127.63%
|-
|01/05/2020
|90.7
|34.75
|5.03%
| -19.65%
|-
|01/06/2020
|92.14
|26.25
|1.59%
| -24.46%
|-
|01/07/2020
|96.65
|46.75
|4.89%
|78.10%
|-
|01/08/2020
|102.96
|44.25
|6.53%
| -5.35%
|-
|01/09/2020
|99.52
|40.25
| -3.34%
| -9.04%
|-
|01/10/2020
|96.53
|110
| -3.00%
|173.29%
|-
|01/11/2020
|108.94
|75
|12.86%
| -31.82%
|-
|01/12/2020
|112.41
|121.25
|3.19%
|61.67%
|-
|01/01/2021
|111.49
|93.75
| -0.82%
| -22.68%
|-
|01/02/2021
|114.27
|87.5
|2.49%
| -6.67%
|-
|01/03/2021
|118.49
|88.75
|3.69%
|1.43%
|-
|01/04/2021
|123.61
|112.5
|4.32%
|26.76%
|-
|01/05/2021
|125.6
|130
|1.61%
|15.56%
|-
|01/06/2021
|126.57
|287.5
|0.77%
|121.15%
|-
|01/07/2021
|128.83
|435
|1.79%
|51.30%
|-
|01/08/2021
|132.02
|367.5
|2.48%
| -15.52%
|-
|01/09/2021
|126.46
|327.5
| -4.21%
| -10.88%
|-
|01/10/2021
|133.84
|320
|5.84%
| -2.29%
|-
|01/11/2021
|131.1
|305
| -2.05%
| -4.69%
|-
|01/12/2021
|135.32
|245
|3.22%
| -19.67%
|-
|01/01/2022
|128.32
|200
| -5.17%
| -18.37%
|-
|01/02/2022
|124.58
|167.5
| -2.91%
| -16.25%
|-
|01/03/2022
|128.16
|120
|2.87%
| -28.36%
|-
|01/04/2022
|117.42
|220
| -8.38%
|83.33%
|-
|01/05/2022
|117.94
|217.5
|0.44%
| -1.14%
|-
|01/06/2022
|106.88
|202.5
| -9.38%
| -6.90%
|-
|01/07/2022
|115.57
|190
|8.13%
| -6.17%
|-
|01/08/2022
|110.28
|167.5
| -4.58%
| -11.84%
|-
|01/09/2022
|99.95
|192.5
| -9.37%
|14.93%
|-
|01/10/2022
|107.42
|142.5
|7.47%
| -25.97%
|-
|01/11/2022
|115.44
|87.5
|7.47%
| -38.60%
|-
|01/12/2022
|109.25
|82.5
| -5.36%
| -5.71%
|-
|01/01/2023
|117.01
|105
|7.10%
|27.27%
|-
|01/02/2023
|113.98
|100
| -2.59%
| -4.76%
|-
|01/03/2023
|117.67
|87.5
|3.24%
| -12.50%
|-
|01/04/2023
|119.79
|114.5
|1.80%
|30.86%
|-
|01/05/2023
|118.6
|115
| -0.99%
|0.44%
|-
|01/06/2023
|124.52
|125
|4.99%
|8.70%
|-
|01/07/2023
|128.54
|105
|3.23%
| -16.00%
|-
|01/08/2023
|125.7
|72.5
| -2.21%
| -30.95%
|-
|01/09/2023
|120.17
|80
| -4.40%
|10.34%
|-
|01/10/2023
|117.11
|62.5
| -2.55%
| -21.88%
|-
|01/11/2023
|127.78
|62.5
|9.11%
|0.00%
|-
|01/12/2023
|133.02
|59.5
|4.10%
| -4.80%
|-
|01/01/2024
|134.2
|46.5
|0.89%
| -21.85%
|-
|01/02/2024
|140.33
|37.5
|4.57%
| -19.35%
|-
|23/02/2024
|140.33
|37.5
|0.00%
|0.00%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Peel Hunt beta and adjusted beta value
!
!Beta
!Adjusted beta
!Comment(s)
|-
|Consistent (monthly) intervals between data points
|<nowiki>-0.12416</nowiki>
|0.25056
|
|}

=== Cost of equity ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Cost of equity (%)
!Input
!Input value
!Additional information
|-
|Risk-free rate (%)
|4.371%
|Here, the risk free rate is the US 30 year treasury bond, and is calculated as at 25th February 2024. Research suggests that for the risk-free rate, it's best to use one that has the same or similar maturity to the estimated remaining lifespan of the company. Here, we have assumed that the estimated lifespan of the company is 50 years, so we have used the longest maturity, which is 30 years.
|-
|Beta
|0.25056
|Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.
|-
|Equity risk premium (%)
|6.41%
|Here, the equity risk premium is in relation to the global region, and is calculated as at 5th January 2024. Research suggests that for the region of equity risk premium, it's best to use one that is the same or similar to the region of the beta market portfolio. Here, the region of the beta market portfolio is the world/global, so we have used the world/global region for the equity risk premium.
|-
|Cost of equity (%)
|5.98%
|Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.
|}

=== Beta risk profile ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Beta value
!Risk rating
|-
|style="background: green; color: white;" |0 to 0.50
|style="background: green; color: white;" | Low
|-
|style="background: orange; color: white;" | 0.50 to 1.50
|style="background: orange; color: white;" | Medium
|-
|style="background: red; color: white;" | 1.50 to 3.00
|style="background: red; color: white;" | High
|-
|style="background: purple; color: white;" | 3.00 and above
|style="background: purple; color: white;" | Extremely high
|}

== References and notes == 
[[Category:Thesis]]
__INDEX__