Editing Sirius Real Estate Limited

'''Unique investment opportunity with a medium risk/return profile'''

Listed on both the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Sirius Real Estate is a company that's on a mission to help small and medium-sized businesses to improve and maximise their profits. The company's flagship offering is the provision of workspaces that are 1) focused on the industrial, manufacturing, office and storage sectors and 2) located in Germany and the United Kingdom. What makes the workspaces unique is that they are designed based on lots of data, and the evidence suggests that doing so enables the businesses to improve productivity while reducing costs, ultimately leading the businesses to improve and maximise their profits. The expected return of an investment in Sirius over the next five years is ccc%, according to our default estimates, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, a £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £ccc in five years’ time. The degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is 'medium', with the shares having an adjusted beta that is 6% above the market (1.06 vs. 1). Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year, then an investment in the company is a 'suitable' one.

'''Attractive markets'''

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'''Track record'''

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'''Attractive valuation'''

Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12 months or less, the approach that is more/most accurate is the relative valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of Sirius Real Estate. For valuing a real estate investment trust (REIT), the P/FFO is considered by many as one of the best relative valuation ratios to use. Based on our twelve-month ahead Sirius FFO forecast (of €99 million), Bloomberg-suggested P/FFO multiple (of 18x), today's GBP/EUR exchange rate (€1.13 per pound) and the current Sirius shares in issue (1,176 million), our model indicates that the valuation of the company will increase over the next 12 months to 130p per share, from 88.20p. We note that the shares are supported by a decent yield of xxx%.{{Infobox company
| name             = Sirius Real Estate
| logo             = Sirius Real Estate logo.svg
| type             = [[Public limited company]]
| traded_as        = {{ubl|{{lse|SRE}}|[[FTSE 250 Index|FTSE 250]] component}}
| foundation       = 2007
| location         = 
| key_people       = Daniel Kitchen, ([[chairman]])<br /> Andrew Coombs, ([[CEO]])
| industry         = Property
| products         = 
| revenue          = {{increase}} [[Euro|€]]165.4&nbsp;million (2021)<ref name=ar>{{cite web|url=https://www.sirius-real-estate.com/media/1805/sirius-real-estate-limited-annual-report-and-accounts-2021.pdf|title=Annual Report 2021|website=Sirius Real Estate|access-date=17 February 2022}}</ref>
| operating_income = {{increase}} [[Euro|€]]170.7&nbsp;million (2021)<ref name=ar/>
| net_income       = {{increase}} [[Euro|€]]147.6&nbsp;million (2021)<ref name=ar/>
| num_employees    =
| parent           = 
| subsid           = 
| homepage         = {{URL|https://www.sirius-real-estate.com}}
| footnotes        = 
}}

{| class="wikitable"
|+Key information
!
!
|-
|When was the company incorporated?
|2002
|-
|Where is the company incorporated?
|Guernsey 
|-
|Which market(s) does the company's shares trade on?
|The Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and the Main Board of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
|}


== Operations ==

=== How did the idea of the company come about? ===

In 2002, the idea of Sirius Real Estate came to ccc, the now founders of the company, when they developed a strong desire to maximise/improve the profits of the businesses in which he was involved (i.e. ccc). Researching into how to do that, they realised that one of the best ways is via the provision of workspaces, in particular well-designed workspaces. He also realised that there are many company owners and agents that feel the same way as him, with profit maximisation one of the fundamental assumptions of economic (and business) theory. In his quest to maximise the profits of his business and the businesses of others, Sirius Real Estate was born.
=== Mission ===
The mission of the company is to create and manage workspaces that empower small and medium-sized businesses to grow, evolve and thrive. 
=== Portfolio ===
Sirius operates a portfolio of assets across Germany and the UK. In Germany, its focus is on the seven largest cities: Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Köln, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and München, with a secondary focus on a selection of key border towns such as Aachen, Saarbrücken, Mahlsdorf and Frieburg. In the UK, where it operates under the BizSpace brand, its sites are in convenient, regional locations.

The company looks for mixed-use properties, primarily light industrial units, business parks or office buildings outside city centres, or on the edge of towns, in neighbourhoods which have a high density of commercial and industrial activity and good transport links. By revitalising, providing and actively-managing the optimum spaces for its tenants, Sirius helps them expand, move and multiply.



The book value is €2,032.30 million and the net operating income (NOI) is €137.9 million, equating to a net yield (or the cap rate) of 6.8%.

{| class="wikitable"
|+Investment properties - owned assets
!Geographical region
!Annualised rent roll (€m)
!Book value (€m)
!Net operating income (€m)
!Capital €value/ sqm
!Gross yield<ref>Gross yield is the return on investment before taking into account expenses such as property management, maintenance, insurance, taxes, and other operating costs. It is calculated as the annual rental income divided by the property's purchase price or current market value. For example, if a rental property generates $12,000 per year in rental income and its purchase price is $100,000, the gross yield would be 12,000 / 100,000 = 0.12 or 12%.</ref>
!Net yield<ref>Net yield takes into account all operating expenses associated with the property. It is calculated as the annual rental income minus all expenses divided by the property's purchase price or market value. For example, if a rental property generates $12,000 per year in rental income, and the expenses associated with the property total $4,000 per year, the net yield would be (12,000 - 4,000) / 100,000 = 0.08 or 8%.</ref>
!Vacant space sqm
!Rate per sqm €
!Occupancy %
!Proportion of total
|-
|Germany
|115.2
|1,653.9
|105.0
|910
|7.0%
|6.3%
|283,711
|6.53
|83.8%
|
|-
|United Kingdom
|46.5
|378.4
|32.9
|90
|12.3%
|8.7%
|547,033
|12.64
|87.0%
|
|-
|Total
|161.7
|2,032.30
|137.9
|
|
|6.8%
|830,744
|
|
|
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!
!Proportion of current income
|-
|Traditional Mixed-Use Industrial Business Parks
|57%
|-
|Modern Mixed-Used Business Parks 
|26%
|-
|Out of Town Office Buildings
|17%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Germany portfolio
!Usage type
!Usage split (%)
|-
|Office
|34%
|-
|Storage
|32%
|-
|Production
|21%
|-
|Smartspace
|6%
|-
|Other
|7%
|}
In terms of annualised rent roll (i.e. revenue)?


{| class="wikitable"
|+Germany portfolio
!
!Number of properties (#)
!Total square metres (000)
!Occupancy (%)
!Rate (psm €) 
!Annualised Rent (€m)
!% of Portfolio By Rent
!Book Value (€m)
!Gross yield (%)
|-
|Frankfurt
|16
|370.3 
|84.1%
|6.93
|25.9
|22.5%
|366.0
|7.1%
|-
|Berlin
|4
|103.6 
|96.7%
|8.12
|9.8
|8.5%
|166.7
|5.9%
|-
|Stuttgart
|9
|331.1 
|89.8%
|5.17
|18.4
|16.0%
|248.5
|7.4%
|-
|Cologne
|7
|127.2
|87.5%
|8.33 
|11.1
|9.7%
|158.1
|7.0%
|-
|Munich
|3
|123.8
|83.9%
|8.42
|10.5
|9.1%
|202.8
|5.2%
|-
|Düsseldorf
|15
|351.7
|76.7%
|5.79
|18.7
|16.3%
|250.9
|7.5%
|-
|Hamburg
|4
|91.4 
|83.9%
|5.24
|4.8
|4.2%
|64.1
|7.5%
|-
|Other
|10
|254.4 
|78.2%
|6.67
|15.9
|13.7%
|196.8
|8.1%
|-
|Total
|68
|1,753.5 
|83.8% 
|6.53 
|115.2 
|100.0%
|1,653.9 
|7.0%
|}

{| class="wikitable"
|+United Kingdom portfolio
!
!Proportion of current income
|-
|Industrial Assets
|37%
|-
|Office Buildings
|51%
|-
|Mixed Use Assets
|12%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+United Kingdom portfolio annualised rent roll (£)
!Property type
!Proportion
|-
|Office
|60%
|-
|Workshop
|36%
|-
|Storage
|1%
|-
|Other
|3%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Annualised Rental Income
!Type of Tenant
!No. of tenants @ Sep 22 
!Occupied sqft ‘000’s
!Annualised rent roll £m
!Rate psft £
!Proportion of total in terms of annualised rental income (%)
|-
|Top 100 
|100
|952 
|11.5
|12.11 
|25%
|-
|Next 900
|900
|1,638 
|19.8
|12.11 
|43%
|-
|Rest
|2,251 
|1,087 
|15.1 
|13.91 
|32%
|-
|Total
|3,251 
|3,677 
|46.4 
|12.64 
|100%
|}



Sirius’ portfolio includes industrial, manufacturing, urban logistics/production, storage and out of town office space that caters to multiple usages and a vast range of sizes and tenant types. The diversity of the company’s tenant base ranges from large stable and long-term anchor tenants through to the flexible SME and private customers who are the engine room of any economy.

Germany 

In Germany, the group’s large anchor tenants are typically multinational corporations occupying production, storage and related office space. These tenants contribute around 40% of the German rental income. The flexible tenant base is predominantly those who are renting the Smartspace branded offices, self-storage and workbox spaces and generally comprises much smaller tenants on a more flexible basis. These flexible spaces are currently contributing about 7% of the German rental income. The other half of the German rental income comes from the SME sector which occupies both smaller and larger space on a conventional basis. Managing the SME tenant base is the bread and butter of what Sirius does and which it can do far more effectively than its competitors because of its in-house sales and marketing platform that the company has developed over the last 15 years. This, along with the ability to convert, fill up and manage the Smartspace areas, which are usually transformed from areas where Sirius’ competitors leave as structural vacancy, is a key differentiator of Sirius. That skillset allows Sirius to run a value-add strategy which works well in both strong and weak markets and allows the company to make much higher returns for its equity providers at a much lower risk. 

The table below illustrates the diverse nature of tenant mix within the German portfolio at the end of the reporting period:
{| class="wikitable"
|+Tenant breakdown – Germany
!
!No. of tenants as at 30 September 2022
!Occupied sqm
!% of occupied sqm
!Annualised rent income (€m)
!% of total annualised rent income %
!Rate per sqm (€)
|-
|Top 50 anchor tenants<ref>Mainly large national/international private and public tenants.</ref>
|50
|673,988
|46%
|45.5
|40%
|5.63
|-
|Smartspace SME tenants<ref>Mainly small and medium-sized private and public tenants.</ref>
|2,855
|68,322
|5%
|7.9
|7%
|9.64
|-
|Other SME tenants<ref>Mainly small and medium-sized private and retail tenants.</ref>
|2,897
|727,497
|49%
|61.8
|53%
|7.07
|-
|Total
|5,802
|1,469,806
|100%
|115.2
|100%
|6.53
|}
Workspace

Offices

The office space within the German portfolio comprises office areas and buildings on industrial business parks, office buildings attached to warehouses and standalone office buildings in more traditional office areas. 

Within these office types, Sirius offers a wide range of conventional and flexible office offerings on either long or short-term leases. Some business centres offer service packages such as furniture, IT and conferencing as well as co-working areas and virtual offices. 

Offices and co-working and office space are securable in Sirius business parks.

* Conventional offices
* Smartspace office
* Officepods
* Virtual office
* 39.2% of Group annualised rent roll
* 33.7% of total sqm
* €7.76: average rate per sqm

Storage

For businesses and private households, the wide range of storage space on offer in the Sirius estate provides many options on varying scales. Warehouse, storerooms and self-storage options are available in Sirius business parks.

* Classical storage spaces
* Smartspace storage
* Flexistorage
* 23.2% of Group annualised rent roll
* 32.4% of total sqm
* €4.57: average rate per sqm

Production, warehouses and workshops

Large production areas form the base of many Sirius’ business parks; however, these are complimented by smaller workshop areas, which give clients optionality as they start their businesses and as their business needs change. 

Additionally, the modern business parks often have large warehouse spaces which can be used for many different purposes.

* Large-scale production spaces
* Warehouse spaces
* Smartspace workbox
* 17.6% of Group annualised rent roll
* 20.9% of total sqm
* €4.72: average rate per sqm

Traditional business parks

Traditional business parks typically comprise multiple mixed-use buildings and contain in excess of 30,000 sqm of workspace. The company's traditional business parks offer conventional large-scale industrial, storage and office facilities as well as flexible serviced office, self-storage and workbox options which are created from the more difficult areas of the sites. These business parks are home to large blue-chip industrial tenants such as GKN, Bopp & Reuther and Borsig as well as a significant number of SME and individual tenants that together create thriving business communities.

* Multi-tenanted » Long-term leases
* Production, storage and office space
* Large multinational companies

Modern business parks

Modern business parks typically contain a combination of warehouse and office buildings across a site which is 20,000 sqm or more. The quality and look of the modern business parks are usually of a higher standard (than traditional business parks) and whilst they are easier to manage, due to a higher proportion of office space, the value-add potential that can be extracted from the assets within the Sirius business model is usually still very good. 

* Multi-tenanted
* Long and short-term leases
* Warehouse, storage and office space
* SMEs and individual customers
Office buildings

The pure office buildings that Sirius buys are usually well located on the periphery of major economic centres and offer both conventional and flexible office space to SMEs and larger corporates seeking a cost effective alternative to city centre locations. The company's office buildings provide high-quality space that can be quickly adapted to meet the changing needs and working practices of its tenants.

* Single and multi-tenanted
* Office space
* SMEs
* Long and short-term leases

UK

BizSpace’s top 100 tenants are larger corporate customers representing 25% of its annualised income, whilst the remaining 75% are made up of SME and micro-SME tenants.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Tenant breakdown – UK
!
!No. of tenants as at 30 September 2022
!Occupied sq feet
!% of occupied sq feet
!Annualised rent income (€m)
!% of total annualised rent income %
!Rate per sqm (€)
|-
|Top 100
|100
|952,157
|25%
|11.5
|25%
|12.11
|-
|Next 900
|900
|1,638.244
|43%
|19.8
|43%
|12.11
|-
|Rest
|2,251
|1,087,502
|32%
|15.1
|32%
|13.91
|-
|Total
|3,251
|3,677,923
|100%
|46.4
|100%
|12.64
|}
Workspace

BizSpace is a leading provider of regional workspace across the UK, offering light industrial, workshop, studio and out of town office units to a wide range of businesses offering a blend of flexible agreements and longer-term leases. 

Industrial

BizSpace’s industrial workshops are a combination of self-contained units which have roller shutter doors and converted manufacturing complexes which have been subdivided to cater for SMEs. This product is unfurnished and sold on a sq ft basis.

Mixed use

BizSpace’s mixed sites have a combination of workshop space and office space on site. These sites are typically converted mills or factories which have been modernised and repositioned to provide flexible workspace accommodation. The sites all have a part-time or full-time manager on site, but the customer proposition is centred around value for money. All units are sold unfurnished on a sq ft basis with the customer having the flexibility to choose between a lease or a licence.

Office

BizSpace’s office assets are dedicated to SMEs and microbusinesses that seek maximum flexibility. The units are generally unfurnished and sold on a sq ft basis with customers benefiting from a dedicated on-site manager. Customers have the ability to take advantage of additional services such as the provision of internet services and furniture. In addition, BizSpace provides a full serviced office offering at a smaller number of locations which enable customers to benefit from a wider range of services at an all-inclusive, fixed price per desk.

Smartspace

The company’s Smartspace product is attractive to a wide range of customers. From Sirius’ perspective, the Smartspace brand and product range are created through its highly effective capex programme into sub-optimal space which is otherwise extremely difficult to let and usually left vacant by other operators. The transformation of the space deals with the problems of the site and massively improves the quality and feel of the entire business park. From the customer perspective, Smartspace offers them a range of affordable serviced offices, self-storage units and workboxes on a flexible basis that can be tailored to their needs.

The annualised rental income now being generated from Smartspace, excluding the element that covers service charge costs, is now €7.9 million. The occupancy of Smartspace is at 72%, and the rate is €9.64 per sqm. 

A summary of Smartspace products and their contribution to the group is set out below:
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Smartspace product type
!Total sqm
!Occupied sqm
!Occupancy %
!Annualised rent roll (excl. service charge €000)
!% of total Smartspace annualised rent roll
!Rate per sqm (excl. service charge) €
|-
|First Choice Office
|5,117
|3,037
|59%
|825
|10%
|22.63
|-
|SMSP Office
|31,789
|24,029
|76%
|2,895
|37%
|10.04
|-
|SMSP Workbox
|5,974
|5,524
|92%
|431
|5%
|6.51 
|-
|SMSP Storage
|48,772
|34,332
|70%
|3,316
|42%
|8.05
|-
|SMSP Containers
| -
| -
| -
|290
|4%
| -
|-
|SMSP sub-total
|91,652
|66,922
|73%
|7,757
|98%
|9.66
|-
|SMSP Flexilager
|3,686
|1,400
|38%
|145
|2%
|8.62
|-
|SMSP total
|95,338
|68,322
|72%
|7,902
|100%
|9.64
|}



Sirius specialises in the ownership, development and operations of business parks throughout Germany, and more recently through its acquisition of BizSpace, the UK. What makes Sirius different is its best-in-class operating platform and intensive asset management programme. Combining the Sirius property portfolio with its unique operating platform gives it a range of advantages in the market which enable the delivery of strong and consistent returns for shareholders.

Sirius harnesses its in-house asset and property management platform through a stringent acquisitions process. That is followed by an intensive capital investment and asset management plan that focuses on transforming vacant and sub-optimal space into high-quality conventional and flexible workspace.

Its platform

The Sirius operating platform offers a number of benefits including direct sourcing of new asset acquisition opportunities, reduced reliance on commercial agents and local brokers, higher cost recovery, greater lead generation and more efficient new tenant acquisition, and increased optionality in terms of space configuration, as well as enhanced control, focus and speed in developing space.

Key drivers 

Capital efficiency

Sirius intends to grow the portfolio with accretive acquisitions which have been funded historically through new equity, refinancings or disposals of mature or non-core assets. 

Favourable market environments 

The German economy is the largest in Europe and its Mittelstand (SME) market is particularly deep, meaning demand for both the group’s conventional space and flexible workspace continues to be high. The UK commercial real estate market is characterised by growing demand and shortening supply, driven by complex long-term tailwinds including nearshoring of supply chains and shifting consumer demand. 

People 

The company is internally managed and relies on its employees and their experience, skill and judgement in identifying, selecting and negotiating the acquisition and disposal of suitable properties, as well as the development and property management of the portfolio when owned. 

Strong management capabilities 

Sirius has a highly experienced senior management team with a strong track record of in the German and UK property markets, through both good and difficult economic conditions. The team is able to leverage its strong market connectivity and track record of acquiring assets to access a large number of potential investment opportunities.
=== Strategy ===
Sirius specialises in the ownership, development and operations of business parks throughout Germany and the UK which have either attractive yields, value-add potential, or both. What makes Sirius different is its best-in-class operating platform and intensive asset management programme. Combining the Sirius property portfolio together with its unique operating platform gives it a range of advantages in the market which enable the delivery of strong and consistent returns for shareholders.

The company's core strategy is the acquisition of business parks in Germany and the UK that have either attractive yields, value-add potential, or both. Sirius transforms these business parks into higher-quality assets through investment and intensive asset management.

Once sites are mature and net income and values have been optimised, Sirius may then refinance the sites to release capital for investment in new sites or consider the disposal of sites in order to recycle equity into assets which present greater opportunity to deploy the Sirius team’s asset management skills. 

There are five key value drivers:

# Active Portfolio Management – increasing rental and capital value through active portfolio management.
# Transforming and converting vacant space - subdividing and improving existing space so that it can be marketed directly to occupiers using the different Sirius products.  
# Occupancy and rental growth – transforming assets by delivering improvements to tenant mix, occupancy levels and rents.
# Improvement of service charge recovery – delivering best-in-class cost recovery by utilising advanced measurement and cost allocation techniques.
# Growth through acquisition and asset recycling – optimising value and recycling equity into assets which present greater opportunity for active asset management.

=== Board & Management ===

==== Non-executive Chairman ====
Danny Kitchen brings more than 25 years of property and finance experience in both the listed and private markets. After 14 years in corporate finance and M&A with the Investment Bank of Ireland, he was appointed in 1994 as chief finance officer of Green Property PLC, an Irish listed property company. In 2003 he left to join Heron International as group finance director and deputy chief executive. He is currently non- executive chairman of Hibernia REIT plc and was non-executive chairman of Applegreen PLC. Danny was appointed chairman of Irish Nationwide Building Society between 2008 and 2011 and was a Director of the Irish Takeover Panel until 5 June 2020.

==== Chief Executive Officer ====
Andrew Coombs joined the Sirius Facilities Group in January 2010. Prior to joining Sirius, Andrew worked for the Regus Group as UK sales director and before that as director and general manager for MWB Business Exchange Plc. Prior to working in the property sector, Andrew held a number of general management roles. Andrew’s responsibilities to Sirius Real Estate include formulating and agreeing the strategy for delivering shareholder value. He is also responsible for running Sirius Facilities GmbH, together with the group of other operating companies owned by Sirius in Germany, and it is through these operating companies that the strategy is ultimately executed.

==== Chief Investment Officer & Interim CFO ====
Alistair Marks joined the then external asset manager of Sirius in 2007 from MWB Business Exchange Plc just before the IPO on AIM and has remained with the Group following the management internalisation in January 2012. Prior to MWB Business Exchange, Alistair held financial roles with BBA Group Plc and Pfizer Ltd and qualified as a Chartered Accountant with BDO in Australia. Alistair is responsible for the Company’s banking relationships including restructuring, sourcing and negotiating all terms within the Group’s debt facilities. Alistair will focus on the Group’s investment activity, covering acquisitions, disposals and capex investment programmes, utilising his significant experience in the industrial, office and business parks sector, as well as deep operational experience and expertise to identify and execute on a wide range of opportunities that unlock value for the Group.

==== Independent Non-Executive Director ====
James Peggie is a director and co-founder of the Principle Capital Group and prior to that was head of legal and corporate affairs at the Active Value group. He is a qualified solicitor and, before working at Active Value, he worked in the corporate finance division of an international law firm. James graduated from the University of Oxford in 1992 and in 1994 from The College of Law. James has a wealth of experience as a director of various publicly listed and private companies, including Liberty plc from 2006 to 2010.

==== Independent Non-executive Director ====
Mark Cherry is a Chartered Surveyor having qualified in 1983 and brings a wealth of Real Estate knowledge in the investment and asset management markets. Mark was a main board director of Green Property PLC for 10 years, dealing with the UK market and left on the sale of the UK portfolio in 2003. Subsequently he held a board level role at Teesland plc, a Fund and Asset manager specialising in small industrial estates with offices throughout Europe, including three in Germany. Mark was asked to join Lloyds Banking Group as the head of asset management within the real estate “bad bank”, where he was responsible for setting up a number of initiatives to optimise recovery proceeds from defaulted loans. He is currently employed by Invesco Asset Management Limited as their advisor to the Real Estate lending team. He holds no further non-executive directorship positions.

==== Senior Independent Director ====
Caroline is a Chartered Accountant and was an audit partner at Deloitte LLP from April 2000 to May 2018, having qualified with its predecessor firm Touche Ross & Co. In addition to providing audit and advisory services in the financial services sector, Caroline ran the FTSE 250 Deloitte NextGen CFO programme. Caroline is a non-executive director of Moneysupermarket.com Group PLC and Revolut Limited, at both of which she chairs the audit committees.  Caroline will become the Chair of the Company’s Audit Committee at the close of the Annual General Meeting to be held on 31 July 2020.

==== Independent Non-executive Director ====
Kelly is a Chartered Accountant, having qualified in New Zealand in 2001 at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, and has worked in real estate in the UK since 2004. She is currently Head of Investment for British Land Co PLC, the FTSE100 REIT, where she has worked for more than nine years, including roles in strategy and corporate finance. Kelly previously held roles in corporate finance at the Grosvenor Group and as a financial analyst at Burberry Group PLC.

==== Independent Non-executive Director ====
Joanne Kenrick has had a commercial marketing career spanning over 30 years and has extensive listed, private and charitable board experience. For five years until 2015 she was the marketing and digital director for Homebase, prior to which she was chief executive officer of Start, where she established and oversaw HRH the Prince of Wales’s public facing initiative for a more sustainable future. Joanne’s former roles include marketing and customer proposition director for B&Q and marketing director at Camelot Group plc. She was previously a non-executive director of Principality Building Society for six years, during which time she was also a member of the audit and conduct risk committees. Joanne has a degree in law and started her career at Mars Confectionery and PepsiCo.

Joanne Kenrick is currently a non-executive Director and remuneration committee chair for both Welsh Water and Coventry Building Society, as well as being deputy chair and the senior independent director for the latter; and chair of Switching Services Participant Committee and of PayM for Pay.uk. She is also chair of trustees of the charity Make Some Noise.

== Market ==

===Total Addressable Market ===

Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global real estate rental income market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.4 trillion.

The most recent full-year revenue of Sirius is €210 million ($216 million), equating to 0.0090% of the entire global real estate rental income market.

===Serviceable Available Market===

Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global commercial real estate rental income market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $1.2 trillion.

===Serviceable Obtainable Market===

Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the Germany commercial real estate rental income market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $51 billion.

Note, last year, the company moved into the SAM (i.e. the global commercial real estate rental income market), by entering the United Kingdom commercial real estate rental income market, which is estimated, in terms of revenue, at $40 billion.



Introduction

Sirius continues to operate largely in Germany where it owns and manages a well-diversified portfolio of mature business park assets, as well as those where there is an opportunity to add value through asset management. Last year, the company also acquired BizSpace, a leading provider of regional flexible workspace across the UK, offering light industrial, workshop, studio and office units to a wide range of businesses. The acquisition complements Sirius’ existing platform and allows for meaningful operational and financial synergies. Sirius’ portfolio in the UK and Germany continues to increase in size through a combination of organic and acquisitive growth underpinned by the company’s internal operating platform.

In Germany, the primary focus is to build a “critical mass” around its “big seven” cities of: Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Munich. The company has a secondary focus on a selection of key border towns where it can reap the benefits of markets on both sides of the border and the periphery of the “big seven” cities. The company provides in the region of 1.8 million sqm of manufacturing, storage and office space. To maximise the utilisation of space, Sirius has developed a range of high-yielding products including serviced offices, self-storage and workboxes which have their own Smartspace brand and are particularly popular with tenants seeking flexible solutions to their accommodation needs. The products are usually created through investment into space that other owners may regard as a structurally void and then using the capability of the in-house sales and marketing teams to let these at premium rental rates. The company’s tenant base is diverse ranging from multinational corporations and government agencies to SMEs within the German Mittelstand and individual tenants.

In the UK, BizSpace is a leading provider of regional flexible workspace. Offering office, studio and workshop units to a wide range of businesses in convenient regional locations. The company provides in the region of 4.3 million sq. ft across 72 sites. The business provides Sirius with a unique opportunity to enter, at scale, an under-served wider UK market with the one-step acquisition of an established platform. Additionally, it provides Sirius with a high-quality portfolio in a supply constrained market and offers significant organic growth potential in rental pricing. BizSpace’s tenant base is similarly diverse, ranging from multinational businesses to manufacturing-focused SMEs and individual tenants.

The German market

Germany remains comfortably the largest economy in the European Union and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China and Japan. It has maintained its reputation as an industrial powerhouse with a strong export-focused economy characterised by low unemployment. Relative to many other European economies, Germany performed well through the Covid-19 crisis and, notwithstanding the impact of recent events in Ukraine and related economic effects, is projected to grow strongly in 2022. At the time of writing, which was before the material escalation of events in Ukraine, the OECD predicted 4.1% GDP growth in 2022 and a further 2.4% in 2023.<ref>https://www.oecd.org/economy/united-kingdom-economic-snapshot/</ref>

Commercial real estate transaction volumes in Germany in 2021 were €64.1 billion, according to BNP Paribas; this is the second highest year recorded, which demonstrates remarkable underlying resilience given the disruptive factors the market faced in 2021 such as supply bottlenecks for primary products, the rise in inflation and the ongoing challenges presented by Covid-19 and the conflict in Ukraine. Once again, the majority of sales volume was registered in and around Germany’s seven major cities (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart), totalling €37.1 billion, exceeding the prior year by 14%. Unsurprisingly Berlin leads the way with €11.2 billion invested, the second highest total on record and up 25% on the previous year. Munich follows with €7.7 billion recorded, up 53% on the previous year. Frankfurt follows in third place with just under €6.7 billion, roughly similar to the previous year. Cologne recorded the strongest growth, up 182% to €3.8 billion. In contrast there were declines on the previous year’s performance in Hamburg at €3.1 billion (-43%) and Düsseldorf at €2.4 billion (-34%). Looking at investment types, offices remained the top performer, with approximately €30.7 billion of investments; around 48% of transaction volume is attributable to this class. Logistics properties followed with a volume of just under €9.9 billion; this is an increase of almost 25% on 2020, setting an all-time high. Foreign investors were responsible for around €24.8 billion of capital investment, around 39% of total investment levels – at a similar level to last year.<ref>[https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/uk-industrial-propertysurged-in-2021-as-median-total-return-topped-30/. https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/uk-industrial-propertysurged-in-2021-as-median-total-return-topped-30/.]</ref>

Looking closely at economic data examining Germany’s so called “Unternehmensimmobilien” – a distinct asset class of German multi-use and multi-let commercial properties, that is home to the heart of the Germany economy – we can see a strong recovery in the sector in the first half of 2021. A new record was set in H1 with an investment volume of around €2.9 billion, an increase of 87% compared with the previous half year. Some of this activity was likely due to a “catch-up effect” from the previous year’s disruption. Looking at the different categories that make up the Unternehmensimmobilien, we can see that business parks are the most in-demand category, accounting for a significant 48% of total volume. Light manufacturing properties are the second most in-demand category, at 23%; notably this is the only property type among the Unternehmensimmobilien that can point to a volume of take-up in the first half of the year that is above the average of the past five years, exceeding it by around 16%. Demand for warehouse properties was much lower, at just 4,000 sqm. Looking at specific sectors more closely we can see that manufacturing remained an extremely important driver of demand for space, demonstrating the robustness of the sector. Accounting for 30% of total take-up, exceeding its average by around 9%. Some clear regional trends emerged in the first half of 2021. Munich and the surrounding area accounted for one-third of the total transaction volume with €934 million. The Rhine-Ruhr conurbation follows, accounting for €378 million in volume, and the West region registered the third highest volume at €375 million.<ref>https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/323301-0</ref> The Unternehmensimmobilien has been resilient as an asset class during past major economic events and recessions and appears to have maintained resilience through Covid-19 too. This is due to multiple factors such as the flexibility and diversity inbuilt within multi-tenanted business parks, the tendency for companies engaged in production and manufacturing to respond to economic contractions by reducing output rather than space and the depth of the Mittelstand market – these factors all contribute to the ongoing growth and stability of the asset class.

The UK market

The UK economy bounced back strongly in 2021 with growth registered at 7.5%, despite falling back in December due to new restrictions to manage the Omicron variant. Prior to the escalation of events in Ukraine, the OECD pointed to the UK economy growing by a further 4.7% in 2022 with business investment set to improve when compared to recent years as the country adapts to the new post-Brexit environment.<ref>https://www.oecd.org/economy/germany-economic-snapshot/</ref> The OECD pointed to unemployment continuing to fall, and inflation is set to slow, heading back towards the 2% target by the end of 2023. Following more recent events in Ukraine it is clear forecasts of economic growth will need to be revisited, with many commentators pointing to significant inflationary pressure particularly in relation to utilities and the likelihood of interest rate increases.

As a result the prospects for growth in the commercial real estate sector and in the UK regions remain uncertain despite supply constraints due to a lack of land and increased building costs driving rental growth. Looking back to 2021, quarter four of 2021 saw commercial property in the United Kingdom record its best single-quarter total return since quarter four of 2009. A quarterly return of 6.3% drove the rolling annual total return of the MSCI UK Quarterly Property Index to 16.5%, a six year high. However, while previous cyclical upswings saw the main property sectors move in relative unison, the current cycle is largely driven by the strength of industrial property. Of the 16.5% annual index return, 12.9% could be attributed to the industrial sector courtesy of a 36.4% total return. Yield compression was the main driver of industrial outperformance as its equivalent yield effectively halved in ten years as it strengthened to 4.2% at the end of 2021 from 8.4% in quarter four of 2011. The combined impact of a strengthening yield and rental growth saw industrial become the largest sector by value in the Index at 35%, up 2.3x over ten years.<ref><nowiki>https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/en/market-reports/</nowiki> investment-market/germany-at-a-glance.</ref> In its 2022 cross-sector outlook published prior to the escalation of events in Ukraine and agnostic of the related economic impact, Savills also noted that regional office markets saw upward pressure on pricing in 2021 and it expects this to continue into 2022 and beyond, noting that some regional office markets look undersupplied.<ref>https://initiative.bulwiengesa.de/unternehmensimmobilien/sites/default/files/2021-11/IUI_Marktbericht15_20211109.pdf</ref>
== Financials ==

=== Most recent half-year results ===
On 21st November 2022, the company announced its interim results for the period ended 30th September 2022.

During the six month period, revenue increased by 47.7% to €130.6 million (H1 FY2022: €88.4 million), mainly driven by higher rental and service charge. In Germany, like-for-like annualised rent roll improved by 2.4% to €115.2 million (H1 FY2022: €112.5 million), and in the United Kingdom, by 4.1% to €46.5 million (H1 FY2022: €44.7 million). Profit before tax decreased by 3% to €75.7 million (H1 FY2022: €78.2 million).

Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million) and debt at €993 million (H2 FY2022: €996 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million).

Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period, cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents).

Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 47.0% to €48.5 million (H2 FY2022: €33.0 million).

The company said it continues to expect to trade in-line with consensus and management expectations for the full year.

Given the rising interest rates and the uncertainty that this and the many other factors affecting the German and UK property markets are causing at the moment, the company has prioritised improving its debt ratios and building up its cash reserves. Net LTV, which reduces the loan balance by free cash (excluding restricted cash balances) in its calculation, was 41.0% (FY2022: 41.6%) whilst interest cover at EBITDA level was 8.1x as at 30th September 2022 (FY2022: 7.3x). The group added that it's fully committed to continue reducing its net LTV to be well within 40% or below in the near term.

=== Most recent full-year results ===
On 13th June 2022, the company announced its full year results for the year ended 31st March 2022.

During the 12-month period, revenue increased by 27% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million), and the gain on revaluation of investment properties jumped by 41% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million); however, mainly due to an impairment charge, higher administrative expenses and interest expenses, the net profit remained more-or-less unchanged at €147 million (FY 2021: €147 million).

In terms of the financial position of the company, the net current assets increased by more than 3x to €55 million (FY 2021: €17 million), and the net asset value (NAV) rose by by 28% to €1.19 billion (FY 2021: €0.93 billion).

Cash flows from operating activities increased by 15% to €82 million (FY2021: €71 million), and mainly due to the acquisition of a subsidiary and purchase of investment properties, cash flows used in investing activities increased by almost 6x to €430 million (FY2021: €74 million). Cash flows from financing activities swung to €431 million (FY2021: negative €54 million), driven by the proceeds of loans and the issue of share capital. The total dividend per share for the year increased by 16% to 4.41 cents (FY2021: 3.80%).

Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million).

== Risks==

As with any investment, investing in Sirius carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Sirius' market beta (i.e. 1.06), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is 'medium'.

Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more/most accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.5 and 1.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.

The key risks that could affect the group's medium-term performance can be found in the table below.<ref>Sirius Real Estate Limited.</ref> 
{| class="wikitable"
!Risk area
!Principal risk(s)
|-
| rowspan="4" |Financing
|Availability and pricing of debt
|-
|Compliance with loan facility covenants
|-
|Availability and pricing of equity capital
|-
|Reputational risk
|-
| rowspan="2" |Valuation
|Property inherently difficult to value
|-
|Susceptibility of property market to change in value
|-
| rowspan="3" |Markets
|Participation within two geographically diverse markets
|-
|Reliance on specific industries and the SME market
|-
|Reduction in occupancy
|-
| rowspan="2" |Acquisitive growth
|Decrease in number of acquisition opportunities coming to market
|-
|Failure to acquire suitable properties with desired returns
|-
| rowspan="3" |Organic growth
|Failure to deliver capex investment programmes
|-
|Failure to refuel capex investment programmes
|-
|Failure to achieve targeted returns from investments
|-
| rowspan="4" |Customer
|Decline in demand for space
|-
|Significant tenant move-outs or insolvencies
|-
|Exposure to tenants' inability to meet rental and other lease commitments
|-
|Tenant affordability
|-
|Regulatory and tax
|Non-compliance with tax or regulatory obligations
|-
|People
|Inability to recruit and retain people with the appropriate skillset to deliver the Group strategy
|-
| rowspan="3" |Systems and data
|System failures and loss of data
|-
|Security breaches
|-
|Data protection
|-
| rowspan="5" |Macro-economic
|Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
|-
|Inflationary pressure leading to increased costs
|-
|Interest rate movements impacting the commercial real estate market
|-
|Delays in cash collection and tenant insolvencies
|-
|Energy supply shortages caused by a variety of economic and geopolitical factors
|-
| rowspan="4" |ESG
|Unforeseen costs relating to physical and transition risks associated with climate change
|-
|Reputational risk
|-
|Failure to meet shareholder and societal requirements or expectations
|-
|Restricted access to financing market due to higher requirements ("green financing")
|-
|Foreign currency
|Financial impact of uncontrollable foreign currency fluctuation on earnings and net asset value
|}

== Valuation==

===What's the expected return of an investment in the company?===

Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative xxx%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £xxx in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of negative xxx%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'xxx' one.

===What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?===

{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which valuation model do you want to use?
|Discounted cash flow
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that we suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). 
|-
|Which type of DCF model do you want to use?
|Free cash flow
|While Sirius has paid a dividend every year since the company's incorporation (in 2002), at the moment, the growth rate of the dividend varies materially; accordingly, we suggest valuing the business using the free cash flow valuation approach (rather than the dividend discount model approach). Nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the dividend discount model (the valuation based on the dividend discount model can be found in the appendix of this report).
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Stockhub
|The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
|15%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
|90%
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%.

|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
|10%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
|100%
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.

|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
|10%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
|100%
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.

|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Other key inputs</div>'''
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|£981.20 million
|As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of Sirius Real Estate Limited is £981.20 million.
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and five years time
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref name=":1">https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf</ref> Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}

===Sensitivity analysis===

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):   

#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $xxx trillion);
#Sirius Real Estate Limited peak market share (the default share is xxx%); and
#The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is xxx%).

The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|The size of the total addressable market
|
|
|
|-
|Sirius Real Estate Limited peak market share
|
|
|
|-
|The discount rate

|
|
|

|}

==Appendix==

=== Absolute valuation approach ===

==== DCF ====
Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative xxx%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £xxx in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which valuation model do you want to use?
|Discounted cash flow
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more/most accurate is the absolute valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
|-
|Which type of discounted cash flow model do you want to use?
|Dividend discount model
|Given Sirius' UK REIT status, the company must pay at least 90% of its UK tax-exempt profits (being rental income after deducting finance costs, overheads and tax depreciation) to shareholders as dividends.  Also as a German REIT (or G-REITs, for short), the company is required to distribute at least 90% of all income (i.e. rental income and non rental income, such as the income from the sale of properties). Furthermore, the company has stated that one of its policies is to pay out 65% or more of funds from operations (FFO) as dividends. Accordingly, we suggest using the dividend discount model (DDM), which is one of the most common discounted cash flow models.
|-
|How many distinct stage of growth do you want to use?
|One stage
|For simplicity, we have used one stage here.
|-
|What is the expected lifespan of the business?
|Perpetual
|Again, for simplicity, we have assumed that the business continues forever.
|-
|What is the expected constant growth rate in dividends?
|8%
|We note that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022) is around 3% per year for the global economy, and around 2.25% for the United Kingdom. Since the company's inception (i.e. eight years ago), the median dividend of the company is 1.57%. Further information about the company's dividend pay-outs can be found in the appendix section of this report.
|-
|What is the half life of the initial dividend growth rate?
|7 years
|We suggest using 7 years.
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Proactive Investors
|Here, we have used the forecasts of Proactive Investors.
|-
|What is the required return on equity?
|12.24%
|For estimating the required return on equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which provides an economically grounded and relatively objective procedure for required return estimation, and, therefore, it has been widely used in valuation. The calculation of the required return on equity (and the reasons behind the calculation) can be found in the table below.
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|88.10 pence per share
|As at 16th February 2023, the current value of Sirius is 88.10p per share.
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and five years time
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years. Accordingly, we suggest that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}

==== Sensitivity analysis ====
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):   

#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $xxx trillion);
#Sirius Real Estate Limited peak market share (the default share is xxx%); and
#The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is xxx%).

The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|The size of the total addressable market
|
|
|
|-
|Sirius Real Estate Limited peak market share
|
|
|
|-
|The discount rate

|
|
|

|}





==== Other ====
The average cap rate for commercial properties can vary widely depending on the location, property type, and market conditions. In the United Kingdom and Germany, the average cap rate for commercial properties is typically in the range of 5-7%, according to ChatGPT.

In the United Kingdom, the average cap rate for commercial properties in prime locations, such as central London, is typically lower, in the range of 3-5%, due to the high demand for real estate in these areas. In secondary markets, the average cap rate may be higher, in the range of 7-9%.

In Germany, the average cap rate for commercial properties, with prime locations such as central Berlin or Munich having lower cap rates, in the range of 4-6%. In other regions, the average cap rate may be higher, in the range of 6-8%.

We note that the current cap rate of Sirius is 6.8%, which is on the high-end of the for commercial properties in the United Kingdom and Germany (5-7%).

In the company's most recent full-year results (i.e. the 12-month period ended 31st March 2022), net operating income (NOI) is €122.5 million. In the company's most half-year results (i.e. the 6-month period ended 30th September 2022), net operating income is €73.2 million, which, based on the most recent cap rate (i.e. 6.8%) and portfolio value (i.e. €2,032 million), equates to an annual income of €137.9 million.

We note that a €5 million improvement in NOI (from €137.9 million to €142.9 million) equates to a €74 million improvement in the valuation of the portfolio, all other things being equal. Similarly, a half a percentage point reduction in the cap rate (from 6.8% to 6.3%) equates to a €162 million improvement in the valuation of the portfolio, again, ceteris paribus.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Net yield against net operating income
!
!5.50%
!6.00%
!6.50%
!7.00%
!7.50%
!8.00%
|-
|'''125.0'''
|2,273
|2,083
|1,923
|1,786
|1,667
|1,563
|-
|'''130.0'''
|2,364
|2,167
|2,000
|1,857
|1,733
|1,625
|-
|'''135.0'''
|2,455
|2,250
|'''2,077'''
|'''1,929'''
|1,800
|1,688
|-
|'''140.0'''
|2,545
|2,333
|'''2,154'''
|'''2,000'''
|1,867
|1,750
|-
|'''145.0'''
|2,636
|2,417
|2,231
|2,071
|1,933
|1,813
|-
|'''150.0'''
|2,727
|2,500
|2,308
|2,143
|2,000
|1,875
|}
<references />


Relative valuation approach

As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.

====What's the expected return of an investment in Sirius using the relative valuation approach?====

Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next five years is xxx. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £xxx in five years time.  The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

====What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|P/AFFO
|The value of real estate typically appreciates, rather than depreciates; furthermore, REIT property sales and capital expenditure tends to result in material differences in the profitable of the REIT across its lifespan. Accordingly, Stockhub suggests valuing the company using the Price to Adjusted Funds From Operations (P/AFFO) ratio, which is calculated by adding amortization and depreciation to the net income and then deducting the gains on the sale of properties and capital expenditure. 
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Stockhub
|The only available medium-term forecasts (i.e. five years from now) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
|-
|In regards to the P/AFFO multiple, for the AFFO figure, which year to you want to use?

|Year 5
|Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to use five years from now (i.e. Year 5). 
|-
|In regards to the P/AFFO multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|15x
|In Stockhub's view, Sirius Real Estate Limited closest peer is xxx. xxx trades on a multiple of xxx.
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Stockhub
|The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
|-
|What's the current value of the Stockhub company?
|£981.20 million
|As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of its company at £981.20 million.
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and five years time
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref name=":1" /> Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}

=== Sensitive analysis ===
The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):   

#The P/AFFO multiple (the default multiple is 15x); and
#The Year-five AFFO forecast (the default forecast is $xxx million); and

The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|The P/AFFO multiple
|
|
|
|-
|The Year-five AFFO forecast 
|
|
|
|}

=== WACC and Cost of Equity ===
As at 30th September, the company's cost of debt is 1.3% (and average debt maturity is 3.8 years). With total debt of €992.86 million and total equity of €1,213.57 million, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is 81.8%. In other words, 55% of the company's finance comes from equity financing and 45% from debt financing. Accordingly, the company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 7.31%. 

We note that when the company's new debt finance agreement comes into place on 1st November 2023, the company's cost of debt will increase to 1.9% (from 1.3%) and average debt maturity will increase to 5.0 years (from 3.8 years). Consequently, the cost of capital will increase by 28 basis points to 7.59% (from 7.31%).

The company's debt has been rated by Fitch Ratings, one of the three nationally recognized statistical rating organizations (NRSRO) in the United States, as 'BBB', which is considered as investment grade.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Cost of equity (%)
!Input
!Input value
!Additional information
|-
|Risk-free rate (%)
|3.779
|Here, the risk free rate is the US 30 year treasury bond, and is calculated as at GMT 12:25 on 10th February 2023. Research suggests that for the risk-free rate, it's best to use one that has the same or similar maturity to the estimated remaining lifespan of the company. Here, we have assumed that the estimated lifespan of the company is 50 years, so we have used the longest maturity, which is 30 years.
|-
|Beta
|1.06
|Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more/most accurately predicts a future beta.
|-
|Equity risk premium (%)
|7.98
|Research suggests that for the region of equity risk premium, it's best to use one that is the same or similar to the region of the beta market portfolio. Here, the region of the beta market portfolio is the world/global, so we have used the world/global region for the equity risk premium, and is calculated as at 5th January 2023.
|-
|Cost of equity (%)
|12.24
|Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Weighted average cost of capital calculation
!Type of capital
!Cost (%)
!Proportion
!Weight
|-
|Equity
|12.24%
|55.00%
|0.58%
|-
|Debt
|1.30%
|45.00%
|6.73%
|-
|Total
|N/A
|100.00%
|7.31%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Adjusted Funds From Operations calculation
!Item
!2021
!2022
!2023E
!2024E
!2025E
!2026E
!2027E
|-
|Funds From Operations (€'million)
|60.9
|74.6
|97.0
|102.0
|108.8
|
|
|-
|Capital expenditure (€'million)
|31.1
|23.8
|24.0
|24.0
|24.0
|
|
|-
|Adjusted Funds From Operations (€'million)
|29.8
|50.8
|76.0
|
|
|
|
|}

===Sirius Real Estate Limited peer(s)===

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Valuation table
|-
!Investments
!Primary exchange
!Classification!!Industry
!Market capitalisation (£)
!P/FFO!!P/AFFO
!Yield (%)
|-
|Sirius Real Estate Limited
|United Kingdom
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£996 million
|11.6x
|
|4.39%
|-
|FastPartner AB
|Sweden
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£1,150 million
|
|
|2.99%
|-
|Cibus Nordic Real Estate
|Sweden
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£577 million
|
|
|6.84%
|-
|Intershop Holding AG
|Switzerland
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£1,020 million
|
|
|4.08%
|-
|Metrovacesa SA
|Spain
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£928 million
|26.9x
|
|14.02%
|-
|WCM Beteiligungs- und G
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£493 million
|
|
|2.89%
|-
|Brack Capital Properties
|Italy
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£658 million
|
|
|
|-
|TLG Immobilien AG
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£1,830 million
|
|
|5.00%
|-
|GAG Immobilien AG
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£1,130 million
|
|
|0.63%
|-
|Gateway Real Estate AG
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£535 million
|
|
|
|-
|VGP
|Belgium
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|£1,350 million
|
|
|9.08%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Sirius Real Estate Limited peers
!Peer
!Three-year average COGS margin (%)
!Three-year average SG&A margin (%)
!Three-year average tax margin (%)
!Three-year average depreciation rate (%)
!Three-year average fixed capital margin (%)
!Three-year average change in working capital ($000)
!Three-year average growth stage
!Discount rate (WACC, %)
|-
|FastPartner AB
|
|
|20.56%
|20%
|
|
|Stage two
|5.38%
|-
|Cibus Nordic Real Estate
|
|
|13.47%
|1%
|
|
|Stage two
|5.01%
|-
|Intershop Holding AG
|
|
|22.99%
|14%
|
|
|Stage two/three
|3.79%
|-
|Metrovacesa SA
|
|
|22.19%
|NA
|
|
|Stage two/three
|8.72%
|-
|WCM Beteiligungs- und G
|
|
|32.64%
|20%
|
|
|Stage two/three
|5.66%
|-
|Brack Capital Properties
|
|
|25.13%
|11%
|
|
|Stage two/three
|2.15%
|-
|TLG Immobilien AG
|
|
|24.44%
|202%
|
|
|
|5.84%
|-
|GAG Immobilien AG
|
|
|16.91%
|73.74%
|
|
|
|4.89%
|-
|VGP
|
|
|14.90%
|
|
|
|Stage one
|7.43%
|-
|Gateway Real Estate AG
|
|
|22.03%
|
|
|
|Stage two/three
|3.61%
|-
|Sirius Real Estate Limited
|43%
|15%
|1%
|11%
|20%
|
|Stage two/three
|4.39%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Growth stage
!Growth stage
!Three-year average COGS margin (%)
!Three-year average SG&A margin (%)
!Three-year average tax margin (%)
!Three-year average depreciation rate (%)
!Three-year average fixed capital margin (%)
!Three-year average change in working capital ($000)
!Discount rate
|-
|One
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Two
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Three
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Four
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|}


=== Dividend ===
Since the company started issuing dividends (i.e. around seven years ago), the median dividend growth rate is 8%, and the mean is 46%. The constant/fixed rate dividend rate is 36%; in other words, if the company had grown its dividend during that period at a rate that is constant (rather than variable), then the rate would be 36%.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Dividend
!Financial year
!Interim (cents)
!Full-year (cents)
!Total (cents)
!Growth
|-
|2023
|2.70
|N/A
|2.70
|N/A
|-
|2022
|2.04
|2.37
|4.41
|16.05%
|-
|2021
|1.82
|1.98
|3.80
|6.44%
|-
|2020
|1.77
|1.80
|3.57
|6.25%
|-
|2019
|1.63
|1.73
|3.36
|6.33%
|-
|2018
|1.56
|1.60
|3.16
|127.34%
|-
|2017
|1.39
|0.00
|1.39
| -37.39%
|-
|2016
|0.92
|1.30
|2.22
|188.31%
|-
|2015
|0.77
|0.00
|0.77
|NA
|}


=== Notes ===

==== Calculation(s) ====
Currently, global real estate rental income accounts for an estimated 2.5% of the world's gross domestic product. Global GDP is estimated at $96.1 trillion. Accordingly, the size of the global real estate rental income market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.4 trillion.

Global commercial real estate rental income accounts around 1.25% of the world's gross domestic product. Global GDP is estimated at $96.1 trillion. Accordingly, the size of the global commercial real estate rental income market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $1.2 trillion.

Germany commercial real estate rental income accounts for around 1.25% of Germany gross domestic product. Germany GDP is estimated at $4.1 trillion. Accordingly, the size of the Germany commercial real estate rental income market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $51 billion.

United Kingdom rental income accounts for around 2.5% of the country's gross domestic product. UK GDP is estimated at $3.2 trillion. Accordingly, the size of the United Kingdom commercial real estate rental income market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $40 billion.

==== '''Investment risk''' ====
Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. Sirius' beta is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is less than 10% below the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in Sirius considered to be 'low' (6%>10%).


{| class="wikitable"
|+Top 10 Shareholders
!Shareholders
!Shares (m)
!Holding (%)
|-
|BlackRock
|122.3
|10.4%
|-
|abrdn
|103.7
|8.8%
|-
|Cohen & Steers 
|58.8
|5.0%
|-
|Vanguard Group
|55.2
|4.7%
|-
|Columbia Threadneedle Investments
|48.7
|4.1%
|-
|Public Investment Corporation (PIC)
|47.8
|4.1%
|-
|Louis Norval 
|29.9
|2.5%
|-
|SSGA
|29.9
|2.5%
|-
|Lazard Asset Management
|25.9
|2.2%
|-
|Truffle Asset Management
|25.3
|2.2%
|-
|Total Top 10 Shareholders
|546.4
|46.5%
|-
|Total Shares in Circulation
|1,175.1
|100.0%
|}
Sirius staff and directors hold 26.4m (2.25%) shares.

=== Risk rating ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Risk rating
|-
!Rating
!Beta
|-
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Low|| style="background: green; color: white;" |Equal to or below 0.5 
|-
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Between 0.5 and 1.5
|-
| style="background: red; color: white;" |High|| style="background: red; color: white;" |Equal to or above 1.5 
|}
===Economic links to cash flow patterns ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Economic links to cash flow patterns
|-
!Cash flow type!!Introduction!!Growth!!Shake out!!Mature!!Decline
|-
|Operating|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | +/-|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-
|-
|Investing|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
|-
|Financing|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-
|}

=== Glossary ===
An alphabetical list of terms and their definitions commonly used by Sirius.

'''Adjusted earnings:''' is the earnings attributable to the owners of the Company, excluding the effect of adjusting items net of related tax, gains/losses on sale of properties net of related tax, the revaluation deficits/surpluses on the investment properties (also to associates) net of related tax, profits and losses on disposals of properties net of related tax, changes in fair value of derivative financial instruments net of related tax, gain on loss of control of subsidiaries net of related tax, finance restructuring costs net of related tax and adjustment on revaluation expense relating to leased investment properties.

'''Adjusted net asset value:''' is the assets attributable to the equity owners of the Company adjusted for derivative financial instruments and deferred tax arising on revaluation gain, financial derivative instruments and LTIP valuation.

'''Adjusted profit before tax:''' is the reported profit before tax adjusted for gain on revaluation of investment properties, gains/ losses on sale of properties, changes in fair value of derivative financial instruments, other adjusting items, gain on loss of control of subsidiaries, revaluation gain on investment property relating to associates and adjustment on revaluation in respect to IFRS 16.

'''Annualised acquisition net operating income:''' is the income generated by a property less directly attributable costs at the date of acquisition expressed in annual terms. Please see “annualised rent roll” definition below for further explanatory information.

'''Annualised acquisition rent roll:''' is the contracted rental income of a property at the date of acquisition expressed in annual terms. Please see “annualised rent roll” definition below for further explanatory information.

'''Annualised rent roll:''' is the contracted rental income of a property at a specific reporting date expressed in annual terms. Unless stated otherwise the reporting date is 31 March 2020. Annualised rent roll should not be interpreted nor used as a forecast or estimate. Annualised rent roll differs from rental income described in note 5 of the Annual Report and reported within revenue in the consolidated statement of comprehensive income for reasons including:

* annualised rent roll represents contracted rental income at a specific point in time expressed in annual terms; 
* rental income as reported within revenue represents rental income recognised in the period under review; and
* rental income as reported within revenue includes accounting adjustments including those relating to lease incentives.

Capital value: is the market value of a property divided by the total sqm of a property.

'''Cumulative total return:''' is the return calculated by combining the movement in investment property value net of capex with the total net operating income less bank interest over a specified period of time.

'''EPRA earnings:''' is earnings after adjusting for property revaluation, changes in fair value of derivative financial instruments, profits and losses on disposals (collectively the “EPRA earnings adjustments”), the gain on loss of control of subsidiaries, finance restructuring costs, revaluation gain on investment property relating to associates, the resulting tax adjustments and deferred tax in respect of these EPRA earnings adjustments.

'''EPRA net asset value:''' is the net asset value after adjusting for derivative financial instruments and deferred tax relating to valuation movements and derivatives.

'''EPRA net reinstatement value:''' is the net asset value after adjusting for derivative financial instruments, deferred tax relating to valuation movements and derivatives and real estate transfer tax presented in the Valuation Certificate, including the amounts of the above related to the investment in associates.

'''EPRA net tangible assets:''' is the net asset value after adjusting for derivative financial instruments, deferred tax relating to valuation movements (just for the part of the portfolio that the Company intend to hold should be excluded) and derivatives, goodwill and intangible assets as per the statement of financial position, including the amounts of the above related to the investment in associates.

'''EPRA net disposal value:''' is the net asset value after adjusting for goodwill as per the statement of financial position and the fair value of fixed interest rate debt.

'''EPRA net initial yield:''' is the annualised rent roll based on the cash rents passing at the balance sheet date, less non-recoverable property operating expenses, divided by the market value of the property, increased with (estimated) purchasers’ costs.

'''EPRA net yield:''' is the net operating income generated by a property expressed as a percentage of its value plus purchase costs.

'''Funds from operations:''' is adjusted profit before tax adjusted for depreciation and amortisation (excluding depreciation relating to IFRS 16), amortisation of financing fees, adjustment in respect to IFRS 16 and current tax excluding prior year adjustments and tax on disposals.

'''Geared IRR:''' is an estimate of the rate of return taking into consideration debt.

'''Gross loan to value ratio:''' is the ratio of principal value of total debt to the aggregated value of investment property.

'''Like for like:''' refers to the manner in which metrics are subject to adjustment in order to make them directly comparable. Like-for-like adjustments are made in relation to annualised rent roll, rate and occupancy and eliminate the effect of asset acquisitions and disposals that occur in the reporting period.

'''Net loan to value ratio:''' is the ratio of principal value of total debt less cash, excluding that which is restricted, to the aggregate value of investment property.

'''Net operating income:''' is the rental and other income from investment properties generated by a property less directly attributable costs.

'''Net yield:''' is the net operating income generated by a property expressed as a percentage of its value.

'''Occupancy:''' is the percentage of total lettable space occupied as at reporting date.

'''Operating cash flow on investment (geared):''' is an estimate of the rate of return based on operating cash flows and taking into consideration debt.

'''Operating cash flow on investment (ungeared):''' is an estimate of the rate of return based on operating cash flows.

'''Rate:''' is rental income per sqm expressed on a monthly basis as at a specific reporting date.

'''Total debt:''' is the aggregate amount of the Company’s interest-bearing loans and borrowings.

'''Total shareholder accounting return:''' is the return obtained by a shareholder calculated by combining both movements in adjusted NAV per share plus dividends paid.

'''Total return:''' is the return for a set period of time combining valuation movement and income generated.

'''Ungeared IRR:''' is an estimate of the rate of return.

'''Weighted average cost of debt:''' is the weighted effective rate of interest of loan facilities expressed as a percentage.

'''Weighted average debt expiry:''' is the weighted average time to repayment of loan facilities expressed in years.

=== What's the median GDP growth rate of Germany over the last 20 years? ===
To answer this question, I need to consult a reliable data source. According to the World Bank, the GDP growth rate of Germany for the last 20 years (2003-2022) is as follows:

* 2003: 0.2%
* 2004: 1.2%
* 2005: 0.9%
* 2006: 3.7%
* 2007: 2.8%
* 2008: 0.0%
* 2009: -5.6%
* 2010: 4.2%
* 2011: 3.0%
* 2012: 0.5%
* 2013: 0.4%
* 2014: 1.6%
* 2015: 1.7%
* 2016: 2.2%
* 2017: 2.5%
* 2018: 1.5%
* 2019: 0.6%
* 2020: -4.9%
* 2021: 3.1% (estimated)
* 2022: 2.5% (estimated)

To calculate the median GDP growth rate over the last 20 years, we need to arrange the growth rates in order from lowest to highest and then find the middle value. In this case, we have an even number of growth rates, so we need to find the average of the two middle values. The ordered list of growth rates is:

* -5.6%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.2%, 1.5%, 1.6%, 1.7%, 2.2%, 2.5%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 3.1%, 4.2%

The two middle values are 1.7% and 2.2%, so the median GDP growth rate of Germany over the last 20 years is (1.7% + 2.2%) / 2 = 1.95%.

=== What's the median GDP growth rate of UK over the last 20 years? ===
To answer this question, I need to consult a reliable data source. According to the World Bank, the GDP growth rate of the UK for the last 20 years (2003-2022) is as follows:

* 2003: 2.3%
* 2004: 3.1%
* 2005: 2.4%
* 2006: 2.7%
* 2007: 3.4%
* 2008: -1.6%
* 2009: -4.2%
* 2010: 1.7%
* 2011: 1.0%
* 2012: 0.2%
* 2013: 1.8%
* 2014: 2.9%
* 2015: 2.3%
* 2016: 1.9%
* 2017: 1.8%
* 2018: 1.4%
* 2019: 1.4%
* 2020: -9.8%
* 2021: 6.9% (estimated)
* 2022: 5.0% (estimated)

To calculate the median GDP growth rate over the last 20 years, we need to arrange the growth rates in order from lowest to highest and then find the middle value. In this case, we have an even number of growth rates, so we need to find the average of the two middle values. The ordered list of growth rates is:

* -9.8%, -4.2%, -1.6%, 0.2%, 1.0%, 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.8%, 1.8%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 3.1%, 3.4%, 5.0%, 6.9%

The two middle values are 2.3% and 2.4%, so the median GDP growth rate of the UK over the last 20 years is (2.3% + 2.4%) / 2 = 2.35%.

=== What's the median GDP growth rate of the world over the last 20 years? ===
To answer this question, I need to consult a reliable data source. According to the World Bank, the GDP growth rate of the world for the last 20 years (2003-2022) is as follows:

* 2003: 3.9%
* 2004: 5.3%
* 2005: 4.5%
* 2006: 5.5%
* 2007: 5.4%
* 2008: 1.8%
* 2009: -2.1%
* 2010: 4.3%
* 2011: 3.8%
* 2012: 3.5%
* 2013: 3.4%
* 2014: 3.9%
* 2015: 3.4%
* 2016: 3.2%
* 2017: 3.7%
* 2018: 3.6%
* 2019: 2.9%
* 2020: -3.3%
* 2021: 4.4% (estimated)
* 2022: 3.3% (estimated)

To calculate the median GDP growth rate over the last 20 years, we need to arrange the growth rates in order from lowest to highest and then find the middle value. In this case, we have an even number of growth rates, so we need to find the average of the two middle values. The ordered list of growth rates is:

* -3.3%, -2.1%, 1.8%, 2.9%, 3.2%, 3.4%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 3.9%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 5.3%, 5.4%, 5.5%

The two middle values are 3.5% and 3.6%, so the median GDP growth rate of the world over the last 20 years is (3.5% + 3.6%) / 2 = 3.55%.

==References and notes== 
<references />

[[Category:Thesis]]
__INDEX__