Editing Sirius Real Estate Limited
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== Summary == | |||
Sirius Real Estate represents a unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure, through a UK REIT, to the attractive light industrial business park and out-of-town office sectors in Germany and more recently, in the UK, managed by a growing market leading owner and operator with a strong and long track record of value creation. | |||
Having entered the UK market in November 2021 via the acquisition of BizSpace, a leading provider of regional flexible workspace, Sirius now intends to apply its proven asset management skills to this new market, having already increased BizSpace’s like-for-like annualised rent roll by 7.5% within the first 4.5 months of ownership. | |||
Delivering a stable and attractive return profile | |||
* Sirius has delivered a double-digit total shareholder accounting return in excess of 13% over the last three years | |||
* The Group’s policy of distributing 65% of FFO as dividends ensures it maintains a well-covered dividend and provides the head-room to flex pay-out ratios as required | |||
* Full covered dividend, with consistent dividend growth over past 8 years, including throughout the Covid-19 pandemic | |||
* Defensive gross yield of 7% with valuation gains mainly resulting from income growth generated by asset management | |||
* Further value and income enhancement to come from a combination of asset recycling, filling vacant space in recently acquired assets, implementation and completion of accretive capex investment programmes and reductions in service charge leakage | |||
Sirius has a well-structured, well-located portfolio… | |||
* Sirius owns and manages a portfolio of over €2.5 billion of property assets comprising industrial, manufacturing, office and storage assets in edge of town locations | |||
* Mixed-use assets are situated in strategic locations: in and around the “big seven” German markets<ref>“Big seven” German markets identified as Frankfurt, Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Cologne and Stuttgart.</ref> and in core regional hotspot clusters across the UK | |||
* Sirius has a well-diversified tenant base. In Germany, its top 50 tenants generate 45% of annual income. In the UK, 26% of annual income is generated by the top 100 tenants | |||
* Future value enhancement to come from developing and letting more than 118,000 sqm of vacant space in Germany and more than 45,000 sqm of vacant space in the UK | |||
* Sirius maintains overall group LTV at 45% or less, financing new acquisitions with up to 50% LTV using long-term, low interest debt and subsequently blending them with unencumbered assets in the portfolio | |||
…in two highly attractive markets with strong, long-term fundamentals | |||
* The German economy is the largest in Europe: characterised by long term GDP growth, low unemployment and high levels of investment and consumer spending, it is forecast to grow by c. 1.9% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. 99% of German companies are SMEs - the core customer of Sirius | |||
* The UK’s regional flexible workspace and industrial market is characterised by chronic supply constraints, offering potential for significant rental growth and consolidation due to high levels of market fragmentation. | |||
* Industrial assets can be acquired at attractive yields and at capital values well below replacement cost | |||
* Sirius seeks to buy assets with the potential to create value, predominantly through the asset management process by filling vacant space and converting space to higher value uses | |||
Operating with a proven business model and solid track record | |||
* Sirius has proven capability in transforming assets through its capex investment programmes, which deliver returns in excess of 40% and enhance income and capital values. The Company also has a strong track record for growing its income and has delivered like-for-like rent roll growth in excess of 5% for the last eight consecutive years (within its German platform) | |||
* Unlike its competitors, Sirius has a fully integrated operating platform incorporating in-house marketing and sales functions that targets prospective tenants directly using online and offline techniques that lower risk and increase returns | |||
* Dedicated service charge team delivers best-in-class cost recovery by utilising advanced measurement and cost allocation techniques | |||
* The Company is led by a team of highly experienced individuals who have been tested over the full real estate investment cycle | |||
Platform synergies help drive value creation | |||
* Industrial and out of town office markets in the UK and Germany share similar characteristics | |||
* BizSpace structure and internal operating platform complements Sirius’ existing German business, allowing for meaningful operational and financial synergies to drive value creation for Sirius shareholders | |||
* Sirius will apply its proven asset management skills to this new market and has already increased BizSpace’s like-for-like annualised rent roll by 7.5% within the first 4.5 months of ownership. | |||
== Operations == | |||
=== How did the idea of the company come about? === | |||
=== Strategy === | |||
Sirius specialises in the ownership, development and operations of business parks throughout Germany and the UK which have either attractive yields, value-add potential, or both. What makes Sirius different is its best-in-class operating platform and intensive asset management programme. Combining the Sirius property portfolio together with its unique operating platform gives it a range of advantages in the market which enable the delivery of strong and consistent returns for shareholders. | |||
The company's core strategy is the acquisition of business parks in Germany and the UK that have either attractive yields, value-add potential, or both. Sirius transforms these business parks into higher-quality assets through investment and intensive asset management. | |||
Once sites are mature and net income and values have been optimised, Sirius may then refinance the sites to release capital for investment in new sites or consider the disposal of sites in order to recycle equity into assets which present greater opportunity to deploy the Sirius team’s asset management skills. | |||
There are five key value drivers: | |||
# Active Portfolio Management – increasing rental and capital value through active portfolio management. | |||
# Transforming and Converting Vacant Space - subdividing and improving existing space so that it can be marketed directly to occupiers using the different Sirius products. | |||
# Occupancy and Rental Growth – transforming assets by delivering improvements to tenant mix, occupancy levels and rents. | |||
# Improvement of Service Charge Recovery – delivering best-in-class cost recovery by utilising advanced measurement and cost allocation techniques. | |||
# Growth Through Acquisition and Asset Recycling – optimising value and recycling equity into assets which present greater opportunity for active asset management. | |||
=== Mission === | |||
The mission of the company is to create and manage workspaces that empower small and medium-sized businesses to grow, evolve and thrive. Sirius seeks to unlock the potential of its people, its properties and the communities in which it operates so that, together, it can create sustainable impact and long-term financial and social value. | |||
Germany | === Portfolio === | ||
Sirius operates a significant portfolio of assets across Germany and the UK. In Germany, its focus is on the seven largest cities: Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Köln, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and München, with a secondary focus on a selection of key border towns such as Aachen, Saarbrücken, Mahlsdorf and Frieburg. In the UK, where it operates under the BizSpace brand, its sites are in convenient, regional locations. | |||
The company looks for mixed-use properties, primarily light industrial units, business parks or office buildings outside city centres, or on the edge of towns, in neighbourhoods which have a high density of commercial and industrial activity and good transport links. By revitalising, providing and actively-managing the optimum spaces for its tenants, Sirius helps them expand, move and multiply. | |||
Sirius | |||
=== Board & Management === | === Board & Management === | ||
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Introduction | Introduction | ||
Sirius continues to operate largely in Germany where it owns and manages a well-diversified portfolio of mature business park assets, as well as those where there is an opportunity to add value through asset management. | Sirius continues to operate largely in Germany where it owns and manages a well-diversified portfolio of mature business park assets, as well as those where there is an opportunity to add value through asset management. This year the Company also acquired BizSpace, a leading provider of regional flexible workspace across the UK, offering light industrial, workshop, studio and office units to a wide range of businesses. The acquisition complements Sirius’ existing platform and allows for meaningful operational and financial synergies. Sirius’ portfolio in the UK and Germany continues to increase in size through a combination of organic and acquisitive growth underpinned by the Company’s internal operating platform. | ||
In Germany, the primary focus is to build a “critical mass” around its “big seven” cities of: Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Munich. The Company has a secondary focus on a selection of key border towns where we can reap the benefits of markets on both sides of the border and the periphery of the “big seven” cities. The Company provides in the region of 1.8 million sqm of manufacturing, storage and office space. To maximise the utilisation of space, Sirius has developed a range of high-yielding products including serviced offices, self-storage and workboxes which have their own Smartspace brand and are particularly popular with tenants seeking flexible solutions to their accommodation needs. The products are usually created through investment into space that other owners may regard as a structurally void and then using the capability of the in-house sales and marketing teams to let these at premium rental rates. The Company’s tenant base is diverse ranging from multinational corporations and government agencies to SMEs within the German Mittelstand and individual tenants. | |||
In | In the UK, BizSpace is a leading provider of regional flexible workspace. Offering office, studio and workshop units to a wide range of businesses in convenient regional locations. The Company provides in the region of 4.3 million sq. ft across 72 sites. The business provides Sirius with a unique opportunity to enter, at scale, an under-served wider UK market with the one-step acquisition of an established platform. Additionally, it provides Sirius with a high-quality portfolio in a supply constrained market and offers significant organic growth potential in rental pricing. BizSpace’s tenant base is similarly diverse, ranging from multinational businesses to manufacturing-focused SMEs and individual tenants. | ||
The German market | The German market | ||
Germany remains comfortably the largest economy in the European Union and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China and Japan. It has maintained its reputation as an industrial powerhouse with a strong export-focused economy characterised by low unemployment. Relative to many other European economies, Germany performed well through the Covid-19 crisis and, notwithstanding the impact of recent events in Ukraine and related economic effects, is projected to grow strongly in 2022. At the time of writing, which was before the material escalation of events in Ukraine, the OECD predicted 4.1% GDP growth in 2022 and a further 2.4% in 2023.<ref>https://www.oecd.org/economy/united-kingdom-economic-snapshot/</ref> | Germany remains comfortably the largest economy in the European Union and the fourth largest in the world after the USA, China and Japan. It has maintained its reputation as an industrial powerhouse with a strong export-focused economy characterised by low unemployment. Relative to many other European economies, Germany performed well through the Covid-19 crisis and, notwithstanding the impact of recent events in Ukraine and related economic effects, is projected to grow strongly in 2022. At the time of writing, which was before the material escalation of events in Ukraine, the OECD predicted 4.1% GDP growth in 2022 and a further 2.4% in 2023.<ref>https://www.oecd.org/economy/united-kingdom-economic-snapshot/</ref> It expects a strong potential rebound in manufacturing if supply restraints begin to recede, with interest rates and unemployment projected to remain relatively low. Following more recent events in the Ukraine it is clear forecasts of economic growth will need to be revisited with many commentators pointing to significant inflationary pressure particularly in relation to utilities and the likelihood of interest rate increases. | ||
Commercial real estate transaction volumes in Germany in 2021 were €64.1 billion, according to BNP Paribas; this is the second highest year recorded, which demonstrates remarkable underlying resilience given the disruptive factors the market faced in 2021 such as supply bottlenecks for primary products, the rise in inflation and the ongoing challenges presented by Covid-19 and the conflict in Ukraine. Once again, the majority of sales volume was registered in and around Germany’s seven major cities (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart), totalling €37.1 billion, exceeding the prior year by 14%. Unsurprisingly Berlin leads the way with €11.2 billion invested, the second highest total on record and up 25% on the previous year. Munich follows with €7.7 billion recorded, up 53% on the previous year. Frankfurt follows in third place with just under €6.7 billion, roughly similar to the previous year. Cologne recorded the strongest growth, up 182% to €3.8 billion. In contrast there were declines on the previous year’s performance in Hamburg at €3.1 billion (-43%) and Düsseldorf at €2.4 billion (-34%). Looking at investment types, offices remained the top performer, with approximately €30.7 billion of investments; around 48% of transaction volume is attributable to this class. Logistics properties followed with a volume of just under €9.9 billion; this is an increase of almost 25% on 2020, setting an all-time high. Foreign investors were responsible for around €24.8 billion of capital investment, around 39% of total investment levels – at a similar level to last year.<ref>[https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/uk-industrial-propertysurged-in-2021-as-median-total-return-topped-30/. https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/uk-industrial-propertysurged-in-2021-as-median-total-return-topped-30/.]</ref> | Commercial real estate transaction volumes in Germany in 2021 were €64.1 billion, according to BNP Paribas; this is the second highest year recorded, which demonstrates remarkable underlying resilience given the disruptive factors the market faced in 2021 such as supply bottlenecks for primary products, the rise in inflation and the ongoing challenges presented by Covid-19 and the conflict in Ukraine. Once again, the majority of sales volume was registered in and around Germany’s seven major cities (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart), totalling €37.1 billion, exceeding the prior year by 14%. Unsurprisingly Berlin leads the way with €11.2 billion invested, the second highest total on record and up 25% on the previous year. Munich follows with €7.7 billion recorded, up 53% on the previous year. Frankfurt follows in third place with just under €6.7 billion, roughly similar to the previous year. Cologne recorded the strongest growth, up 182% to €3.8 billion. In contrast there were declines on the previous year’s performance in Hamburg at €3.1 billion (-43%) and Düsseldorf at €2.4 billion (-34%). Looking at investment types, offices remained the top performer, with approximately €30.7 billion of investments; around 48% of transaction volume is attributable to this class. Logistics properties followed with a volume of just under €9.9 billion; this is an increase of almost 25% on 2020, setting an all-time high. Foreign investors were responsible for around €24.8 billion of capital investment, around 39% of total investment levels – at a similar level to last year.<ref>[https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/uk-industrial-propertysurged-in-2021-as-median-total-return-topped-30/. https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/uk-industrial-propertysurged-in-2021-as-median-total-return-topped-30/.]</ref> | ||
Looking closely at economic data examining Germany’s so called “Unternehmensimmobilien” – a distinct asset class of German multi-use and multi-let commercial properties, that is home to the heart of the Germany economy – we can see a strong recovery in the sector in the first half of 2021. A new record was set in H1 with an investment volume of around €2.9 billion, an increase of 87% compared with the previous half year. Some of this activity was likely due to a “catch-up effect” from the previous year’s disruption. Looking at the different categories that make up the Unternehmensimmobilien | Looking closely at economic data examining Germany’s so called “Unternehmensimmobilien” – a distinct asset class of German multi-use and multi-let commercial properties, that is home to the heart of the Germany economy – we can see a strong recovery in the sector in the first half of 2021. A new record was set in H1 with an investment volume of around €2.9 billion, an increase of 87% compared with the previous half year. Some of this activity was likely due to a “catch-up effect” from the previous year’s disruption. Looking at the different categories that make up the Unternehmensimmobilien we can see that business parks are the most in-demand category, accounting for a significant 48% of total volume. Light manufacturing properties are the second most in-demand category, at 23%; notably this is the only property type among the Unternehmensimmobilien that can point to a volume of take-up in the first half of the year that is above the average of the past five years, exceeding it by around 16%. Demand for warehouse properties was much lower, at just 4,000 sqm. Looking at specific sectors more closely we can see that manufacturing remained an extremely important driver of demand for space, demonstrating the robustness of the sector. Accounting for 30% of total take-up, exceeding its average by around 9%. Some clear regional trends emerged in the first half of 2021. Munich and the surrounding area accounted for one-third of the total transaction volume with €934 million. The Rhine-Ruhr conurbation follows, accounting for €378 million in volume, and the West region registered the third highest volume at €375 million.<ref>https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/323301-0</ref> The Unternehmensimmobilien has been resilient as an asset class during past major economic events and recessions and appears to have maintained resilience through Covid-19 too. This is due to multiple factors such as the flexibility and diversity inbuilt within multi-tenanted business parks, the tendency for companies engaged in production and manufacturing to respond to economic contractions by reducing output rather than space and the depth of the Mittelstand market – these factors all contribute to the ongoing growth and stability of the asset class. | ||
The UK market | The UK market | ||
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As a result the prospects for growth in the commercial real estate sector and in the UK regions remain uncertain despite supply constraints due to a lack of land and increased building costs driving rental growth. Looking back to 2021, quarter four of 2021 saw commercial property in the United Kingdom record its best single-quarter total return since quarter four of 2009. A quarterly return of 6.3% drove the rolling annual total return of the MSCI UK Quarterly Property Index to 16.5%, a six year high. However, while previous cyclical upswings saw the main property sectors move in relative unison, the current cycle is largely driven by the strength of industrial property. Of the 16.5% annual index return, 12.9% could be attributed to the industrial sector courtesy of a 36.4% total return. Yield compression was the main driver of industrial outperformance as its equivalent yield effectively halved in ten years as it strengthened to 4.2% at the end of 2021 from 8.4% in quarter four of 2011. The combined impact of a strengthening yield and rental growth saw industrial become the largest sector by value in the Index at 35%, up 2.3x over ten years.<ref><nowiki>https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/en/market-reports/</nowiki> investment-market/germany-at-a-glance.</ref> In its 2022 cross-sector outlook published prior to the escalation of events in Ukraine and agnostic of the related economic impact, Savills also noted that regional office markets saw upward pressure on pricing in 2021 and it expects this to continue into 2022 and beyond, noting that some regional office markets look undersupplied.<ref>https://initiative.bulwiengesa.de/unternehmensimmobilien/sites/default/files/2021-11/IUI_Marktbericht15_20211109.pdf</ref> | As a result the prospects for growth in the commercial real estate sector and in the UK regions remain uncertain despite supply constraints due to a lack of land and increased building costs driving rental growth. Looking back to 2021, quarter four of 2021 saw commercial property in the United Kingdom record its best single-quarter total return since quarter four of 2009. A quarterly return of 6.3% drove the rolling annual total return of the MSCI UK Quarterly Property Index to 16.5%, a six year high. However, while previous cyclical upswings saw the main property sectors move in relative unison, the current cycle is largely driven by the strength of industrial property. Of the 16.5% annual index return, 12.9% could be attributed to the industrial sector courtesy of a 36.4% total return. Yield compression was the main driver of industrial outperformance as its equivalent yield effectively halved in ten years as it strengthened to 4.2% at the end of 2021 from 8.4% in quarter four of 2011. The combined impact of a strengthening yield and rental growth saw industrial become the largest sector by value in the Index at 35%, up 2.3x over ten years.<ref><nowiki>https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/en/market-reports/</nowiki> investment-market/germany-at-a-glance.</ref> In its 2022 cross-sector outlook published prior to the escalation of events in Ukraine and agnostic of the related economic impact, Savills also noted that regional office markets saw upward pressure on pricing in 2021 and it expects this to continue into 2022 and beyond, noting that some regional office markets look undersupplied.<ref>https://initiative.bulwiengesa.de/unternehmensimmobilien/sites/default/files/2021-11/IUI_Marktbericht15_20211109.pdf</ref> | ||
== Financials == | == Financials == | ||
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Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million) and debt at €993 million (H2 FY2022: €996 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million). | Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million) and debt at €993 million (H2 FY2022: €996 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million). | ||
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period | Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period. cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents). | ||
Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 47.0% to €48.5 million (H2 FY2022: €33.0 million). | Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 47.0% to €48.5 million (H2 FY2022: €33.0 million). | ||
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Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million). | Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million). | ||
=== Forecasts === | |||
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Key inputs | |||
!Description | |||
!Value | |||
!Commentary | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" | <div style="text-align: center;">'''Revenue'''</div> | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? | |||
|$2,400,000,000,000 | |||
|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global real estate rental income market, and based on a number of assumptions<ref group="Note" name="Note01" />, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (23rd November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.4 trillion. | |||
|- | |||
|What is the estimated company lifespan? | |||
|50 years | |||
|Research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.<ref>Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.</ref> | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? | |||
|3% | |||
|Research shows that the growth rate of the global real estate rental income market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product<ref>http://www.robertpicard.net/files/econgrowthandadvertising.pdf</ref>, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)<ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate</ref>. | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated company peak market share? | |||
|1% | |||
|Stockhub estimates that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Sirius is around 1%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st March 2022 (i.e. the most recent Sirius full-year results), Sirius's current share of the global real estate rental income market (i.e. the total addressable market) is estimated at around 0.0090% and of the Germany and United Kingdom commercial real estate rental income market is 0.24%. | |||
|- | |||
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? | |||
|Gaussian | |||
|Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)<ref>http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref>, so Stockhub suggests using that function here. | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? | |||
| 5 years | |||
|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Sirius' current revenue amount (i.e. $210 million) and Sirius' estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Sirius' estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. growth stage), the Stockhub company suggests using five years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within five years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here. | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stages</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through? | |||
| 4 stages | |||
|Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.<ref>Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x</nowiki></ref> Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.<ref>Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.</ref> | |||
In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.<ref>Dickinson, 2010.</ref> A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. Stockhub estimates that with Sirius operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the second stage of growth (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows. | |||
|- | |||
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? | |||
|30% | |||
|Research suggests 30%.<ref name=":6">http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref> | |||
|- | |||
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2? | |||
|10% | |||
|Research suggests 10%.<ref name=":6" /> | |||
|- | |||
| What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3? | |||
|20% | |||
| Research suggests 20%.<ref name=":6" /> | |||
|- | |||
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4? | |||
|40% | |||
|Research suggests 40%.<ref name=":6" /> | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|42% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7">http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf</ref>, and the margin for its peers is 42%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|19% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 19%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Tax rate (%) | |||
|12% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 12%. | |||
|- | |||
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of fixed capital (%) | |||
|10% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|10% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|15% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 15%. | |||
|- | |||
|Net borrowing ($000) | |||
|Zero | |||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. | |||
|- | |||
|Interest amount ($000) | |||
|Zero | |||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|62% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 62%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|13% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 13%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Tax rate (%) | |||
|14% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 14%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|4% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 4%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|3% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 3%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|10% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Net borrowing ($000) | |||
|Zero | |||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. | |||
|- | |||
|Interest amount ($000) | |||
|Zero | |||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|99% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 99%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|15% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Tax rate (%) | |||
|0% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 0%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
|37% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 37%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
| 1% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 1%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
| 10% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |||
|Net borrowing ($000) | |||
|Zero | |||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. | |||
|- | |||
|Interest amount ($000) | |||
|Zero | |||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | |||
|} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Income statement | |||
! | |||
!2013 | |||
!2014 | |||
!2015 | |||
!2016 | |||
!2017 | |||
!2018 | |||
!2019 | |||
!2020 | |||
!2021 | |||
!2022 | |||
|- | |||
!Fiscal Year Ends | |||
|31/03/2013 | |||
|31/03/2014 | |||
|31/03/2015 | |||
|31/03/2016 | |||
|31/03/2017 | |||
|31/03/2018 | |||
|31/03/2019 | |||
|31/03/2020 | |||
|31/03/2021 | |||
|31/03/2022 | |||
|- | |||
!Turnover | |||
|46.12 | |||
|45.07 | |||
|45.39 | |||
|55.79 | |||
|68.79 | |||
|123.65 | |||
|140.06 | |||
|150.01 | |||
|165.36 | |||
|210.18 | |||
|- | |||
!Expenses | |||
|22.32 | |||
|21.54 | |||
|23.64 | |||
|23.06 | |||
|29.74 | |||
|83.25 | |||
|85.02 | |||
|85.95 | |||
|98.67 | |||
|121.30 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>EBITDA</abbr> | |||
| -13.44 | |||
|44.18 | |||
|46.25 | |||
|68.93 | |||
|85.63 | |||
|98.63 | |||
|155.10 | |||
|125.22 | |||
|175.61 | |||
|187.50 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>EBIT</abbr> | |||
| -14.47 | |||
|43.19 | |||
|45.36 | |||
|68.30 | |||
|84.76 | |||
|97.54 | |||
|153.73 | |||
|123.12 | |||
|173.53 | |||
|184.33 | |||
|- | |||
!Operating Profit (reported) | |||
|23.80 | |||
|23.52 | |||
|21.76 | |||
|32.73 | |||
|39.05 | |||
|40.40 | |||
|55.04 | |||
|64.06 | |||
|66.69 | |||
|88.88 | |||
|- | |||
!Operating Profit (adjusted) | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|- | |||
!Investment Income | |||
| -36.98 | |||
|21.05 | |||
|26.70 | |||
|44.17 | |||
|49.86 | |||
|60.95 | |||
|100.50 | |||
|58.00 | |||
|104.62 | |||
|147.20 | |||
|- | |||
!Exceptional Items | |||
| -1.19 | |||
| -1.36 | |||
| -3.05 | |||
| -8.54 | |||
| -4.04 | |||
| -3.68 | |||
| -1.70 | |||
|0.03 | |||
| -0.50 | |||
| -13.84 | |||
|- | |||
!Net Interest | |||
| -15.10 | |||
| -12.18 | |||
| -12.75 | |||
| -11.29 | |||
| -8.44 | |||
| -8.03 | |||
| -9.12 | |||
| -11.33 | |||
| -7.16 | |||
| -12.41 | |||
|- | |||
!Pre-tax Profit | |||
| -29.47 | |||
|31.03 | |||
|32.65 | |||
|57.08 | |||
|76.44 | |||
|89.65 | |||
|144.71 | |||
|110.77 | |||
|163.66 | |||
|168.93 | |||
|- | |||
!Tax | |||
|0.78 | |||
|2.10 | |||
|5.65 | |||
|2.39 | |||
|9.50 | |||
|8.29 | |||
|15.99 | |||
|12.62 | |||
|16.10 | |||
|20.94 | |||
|- | |||
!Net Profit | |||
| -30.25 | |||
|28.93 | |||
|27.00 | |||
|54.69 | |||
|66.94 | |||
|81.36 | |||
|128.72 | |||
|98.15 | |||
|147.56 | |||
|147.99 | |||
|- | |||
!Minority Interests | |||
| -0.03 | |||
|0.01 | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.09 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.01 | |||
|0.11 | |||
|0.12 | |||
|- | |||
!Profit For Financial Year | |||
| -30.23 | |||
|28.93 | |||
|26.99 | |||
|54.67 | |||
|66.91 | |||
|81.27 | |||
|128.66 | |||
|98.14 | |||
|147.45 | |||
|147.87 | |||
|- | |||
!Ordinary Dividends | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|- | |||
!Non Equity Dividends | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|- | |||
!Retained Profit | |||
| -30.23 | |||
|28.93 | |||
|26.99 | |||
|54.67 | |||
|66.91 | |||
|81.27 | |||
|128.66 | |||
|98.14 | |||
|147.45 | |||
|147.87 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Per Share Data | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>DPS</abbr> | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.01 | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.04 | |||
|0.04 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Normalized EPS</abbr> | |||
| -0.09 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.05 | |||
|0.08 | |||
|0.08 | |||
|0.09 | |||
|0.13 | |||
|0.09 | |||
|0.14 | |||
|0.14 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Reported EPS</abbr> | |||
| -0.10 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.05 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.08 | |||
|0.09 | |||
|0.13 | |||
|0.09 | |||
|0.14 | |||
|0.13 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Investment Ratios | |||
|- | |||
!Operating Margin | |||
|0.52 | |||
|0.52 | |||
|0.48 | |||
|0.59 | |||
|0.57 | |||
|0.33 | |||
|0.39 | |||
|0.43 | |||
|0.40 | |||
|0.42 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>DPS Growth</abbr> % | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|0.65 | |||
|0.53 | |||
|0.15 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.08 | |||
|0.06 | |||
|0.11 | |||
|- | |||
!Dividend Cover x | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|21.32 | |||
|3.86 | |||
|3.26 | |||
|56.50 | |||
|3.22 | |||
|3.82 | |||
|2.26 | |||
|3.93 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Norm EPS Growth</abbr> % | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| -0.30 | |||
|0.59 | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.08 | |||
|0.43 | |||
| -0.27 | |||
|0.48 | |||
| -0.01 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Reported EPS Growth</abbr> % | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| -0.33 | |||
|0.51 | |||
|0.11 | |||
|0.10 | |||
|0.47 | |||
| -0.26 | |||
|0.48 | |||
| -0.05 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Other | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Market Cap at B/S Date</abbr> | |||
|61.13 | |||
|169.09 | |||
|262.65 | |||
|332.75 | |||
|456.45 | |||
|610.66 | |||
|648.04 | |||
|682.89 | |||
|931.63 | |||
|1,463.27 | |||
|} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Balance sheet | |||
! | |||
!2013 | |||
!2014 | |||
!2015 | |||
!2016 | |||
!2017 | |||
!2018 | |||
!2019 | |||
!2020 | |||
!2021 | |||
!2022 | |||
|- | |||
!Fiscal Year Ends | |||
|31/03/2013 | |||
|31/03/2014 | |||
|31/03/2015 | |||
|31/03/2016 | |||
|31/03/2017 | |||
|31/03/2018 | |||
|31/03/2019 | |||
|31/03/2020 | |||
|31/03/2021 | |||
|31/03/2022 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Assets | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Non Current Assets | |||
|- | |||
!Intangible | |||
|3.74 | |||
|3.74 | |||
|3.74 | |||
|3.74 | |||
|3.74 | |||
|3.74 | |||
|3.74 | |||
|5.72 | |||
|6.57 | |||
|4.28 | |||
|- | |||
!Tangible | |||
|2.54 | |||
|1.83 | |||
|1.68 | |||
|1.94 | |||
|2.56 | |||
|3.13 | |||
|3.44 | |||
|4.81 | |||
|4.60 | |||
|20.49 | |||
|- | |||
!Investments | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|0.00 | |||
|12.31 | |||
|17.20 | |||
|24.14 | |||
|- | |||
!Other | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|974.68 | |||
|1,232.93 | |||
|1,407.15 | |||
|2,148.33 | |||
|- | |||
!Total | |||
|416.77 | |||
|446.66 | |||
|551.04 | |||
|693.32 | |||
|733.84 | |||
|923.27 | |||
|981.86 | |||
|1,255.77 | |||
|1,435.52 | |||
|2,197.25 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Current Assets | |||
|- | |||
!Stock | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|- | |||
!Debtors | |||
|9.44 | |||
|11.38 | |||
|9.12 | |||
|6.68 | |||
|7.31 | |||
|7.67 | |||
|9.43 | |||
|13.90 | |||
|17.66 | |||
|19.93 | |||
|- | |||
!Cash and Securities | |||
|7.72 | |||
|7.01 | |||
|10.06 | |||
|9.02 | |||
|48.70 | |||
|64.41 | |||
|15.95 | |||
|96.58 | |||
|49.31 | |||
|127.29 | |||
|- | |||
!Total | |||
|26.65 | |||
|27.37 | |||
|29.66 | |||
|31.83 | |||
|62.99 | |||
|122.92 | |||
|47.42 | |||
|136.40 | |||
|84.48 | |||
|175.87 | |||
|- | |||
!Held for Disposal | |||
|27.66 | |||
|2.63 | |||
| - | |||
|0.00 | |||
|96.00 | |||
|17.33 | |||
|164.64 | |||
|10.10 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|13.75 | |||
|- | |||
!Total Assets | |||
|471.08 | |||
|476.67 | |||
|580.70 | |||
|725.15 | |||
|892.82 | |||
|1,063.51 | |||
|1,193.91 | |||
|1,402.27 | |||
|1,520.00 | |||
|2,386.86 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Liabilities and Equity | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Liabilities | |||
|- | |||
!Current | |||
|286.17 | |||
|23.92 | |||
|30.15 | |||
|36.07 | |||
|41.50 | |||
|51.87 | |||
|112.13 | |||
|95.56 | |||
|67.98 | |||
|120.48 | |||
|- | |||
!Non-Current | |||
|33.88 | |||
|226.44 | |||
|262.28 | |||
|301.97 | |||
|356.05 | |||
|386.01 | |||
|355.74 | |||
|504.90 | |||
|525.20 | |||
|1,075.33 | |||
|- | |||
!Total | |||
|320.05 | |||
|250.36 | |||
|292.44 | |||
|338.04 | |||
|397.55 | |||
|437.88 | |||
|467.87 | |||
|600.46 | |||
|593.17 | |||
|1,195.81 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Equity | |||
|- | |||
!Share Capital | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|- | |||
!Reserves | |||
|151.01 | |||
|226.28 | |||
|288.22 | |||
|387.05 | |||
|495.19 | |||
|625.46 | |||
|725.81 | |||
|803.09 | |||
|929.44 | |||
|1,196.93 | |||
|- | |||
!Shareholders Funds | |||
|151.01 | |||
|226.28 | |||
|288.22 | |||
|387.05 | |||
|495.19 | |||
|625.46 | |||
|725.81 | |||
|801.57 | |||
|926.53 | |||
|1,190.65 | |||
|- | |||
!Minorities | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.04 | |||
|0.02 | |||
|0.03 | |||
|0.17 | |||
|0.24 | |||
|0.25 | |||
|0.29 | |||
|0.41 | |||
|- | |||
!Total | |||
|151.03 | |||
|226.30 | |||
|288.26 | |||
|387.11 | |||
|495.27 | |||
|625.63 | |||
|726.05 | |||
|801.82 | |||
|926.83 | |||
|1,191.06 | |||
|- | |||
!Total Liabilities and Equity | |||
|471.08 | |||
|476.67 | |||
|580.70 | |||
|725.15 | |||
|892.82 | |||
|1,063.51 | |||
|1,193.91 | |||
|1,402.27 | |||
|1,520.00 | |||
|2,386.86 | |||
|- | |||
!Net Borrowings | |||
|281.67 | |||
|217.87 | |||
|244.72 | |||
|284.97 | |||
|293.10 | |||
|302.66 | |||
|315.51 | |||
|402.80 | |||
|433.74 | |||
|892.87 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Investment Ratios | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Net Tangible Asset Value Per Share</abbr> | |||
|46.75 | |||
|26.48 | |||
|27.41 | |||
|37.67 | |||
|43.62 | |||
|49.46 | |||
|56.84 | |||
|67.15 | |||
|68.26 | |||
|71.02 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>ROCE</abbr> | |||
| -7.83 | |||
|9.54 | |||
|8.24 | |||
|9.91 | |||
|9.96 | |||
|9.64 | |||
|14.21 | |||
|9.42 | |||
|11.95 | |||
|8.13 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>ROE</abbr> | |||
| -18.20 | |||
|15.33 | |||
|10.49 | |||
|16.19 | |||
|15.17 | |||
|14.51 | |||
|19.04 | |||
|12.85 | |||
|17.07 | |||
|13.97 | |||
|- | |||
!Gross Gearing | |||
|191.63 | |||
|99.38 | |||
|88.40 | |||
|75.96 | |||
|69.02 | |||
|58.69 | |||
|45.67 | |||
|62.30 | |||
|52.13 | |||
|85.68 | |||
|- | |||
!Cash | |||
|5.11 | |||
|3.10 | |||
|3.49 | |||
|2.33 | |||
|9.83 | |||
|10.30 | |||
|2.20 | |||
|12.05 | |||
|5.32 | |||
|10.69 | |||
|- | |||
!Interest Cover x | |||
| -0.97 | |||
|3.55 | |||
|3.57 | |||
|6.09 | |||
|10.18 | |||
|12.36 | |||
|17.05 | |||
|9.96 | |||
|17.58 | |||
|11.97 | |||
|- | |||
!Quick Ratio r | |||
|0.06 | |||
|0.77 | |||
|0.64 | |||
|0.44 | |||
|1.35 | |||
|1.39 | |||
|0.23 | |||
|1.16 | |||
|0.99 | |||
|1.22 | |||
|- | |||
!Current Ratio r | |||
|0.19 | |||
|1.25 | |||
|0.98 | |||
|0.88 | |||
|3.83 | |||
|2.70 | |||
|1.89 | |||
|1.53 | |||
|1.24 | |||
|1.57 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Borrowings | |||
|- | |||
!Total Borrowings | |||
|289.39 | |||
|224.88 | |||
|254.78 | |||
|293.99 | |||
|341.79 | |||
|367.08 | |||
|331.46 | |||
|499.38 | |||
|483.04 | |||
|1,020.15 | |||
|- | |||
!Due < 1 Yr | |||
|258.15 | |||
|2.81 | |||
|3.30 | |||
|5.64 | |||
|7.07 | |||
|7.84 | |||
|7.41 | |||
|37.59 | |||
|14.97 | |||
|20.72 | |||
|- | |||
!Due 1-2 Yrs | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|10.72 | |||
|75.98 | |||
| - | |||
|- | |||
!Due 2-5 Yrs | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|8.44 | |||
|3.38 | |||
|8.16 | |||
|- | |||
!Due > 5 Yrs | |||
|31.24 | |||
|222.07 | |||
|251.48 | |||
|288.35 | |||
|334.72 | |||
|359.23 | |||
|324.05 | |||
|442.63 | |||
|388.72 | |||
|991.28 | |||
|} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Cash flow | |||
! | |||
!2013 | |||
!2014 | |||
!2015 | |||
!2016 | |||
!2017 | |||
!2018 | |||
!2019 | |||
!2020 | |||
!2021 | |||
!2022 | |||
|- | |||
!Fiscal Year Ends | |||
|31/03/2013 | |||
|31/03/2014 | |||
|31/03/2015 | |||
|31/03/2016 | |||
|31/03/2017 | |||
|31/03/2018 | |||
|31/03/2019 | |||
|31/03/2020 | |||
|31/03/2021 | |||
|31/03/2022 | |||
|- | |||
!Operating Cash Flow | |||
|22.96 | |||
|18.72 | |||
|29.97 | |||
|37.68 | |||
|49.95 | |||
|43.83 | |||
|54.91 | |||
|72.80 | |||
|71.63 | |||
|85.42 | |||
|- | |||
!Taxation | |||
| -0.59 | |||
| -0.19 | |||
| -0.55 | |||
|0.17 | |||
| -0.02 | |||
| -0.76 | |||
| -1.81 | |||
| -1.46 | |||
| -0.63 | |||
| -3.67 | |||
|- | |||
!Investing Activities | |||
|16.81 | |||
|10.22 | |||
| -75.70 | |||
| -100.03 | |||
| -93.65 | |||
| -74.07 | |||
| -67.81 | |||
| -122.24 | |||
| -73.53 | |||
| -429.51 | |||
|- | |||
!Net Outflow/Inflow | |||
|39.18 | |||
|28.75 | |||
| -46.29 | |||
| -62.18 | |||
| -43.72 | |||
| -31.00 | |||
| -14.71 | |||
| -50.90 | |||
| -2.54 | |||
| -347.76 | |||
|- | |||
!Financing | |||
| -31.61 | |||
| -31.72 | |||
|52.68 | |||
|61.92 | |||
|72.54 | |||
|61.91 | |||
| -24.62 | |||
|131.88 | |||
| -53.05 | |||
|431.75 | |||
|- | |||
!Net Change in Cash | |||
|7.57 | |||
| -2.97 | |||
|6.39 | |||
| -0.26 | |||
|28.82 | |||
|30.91 | |||
| -39.32 | |||
|80.98 | |||
| -55.59 | |||
|83.99 | |||
|- | |||
!Foreign Exchange Adjustments | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
|0.00 | |||
|1.30 | |||
|- | |||
!Opening Balance | |||
|9.15 | |||
|16.72 | |||
|13.75 | |||
|20.14 | |||
|19.87 | |||
|48.70 | |||
|79.61 | |||
|40.28 | |||
|121.26 | |||
|65.67 | |||
|- | |||
!Closing Balance | |||
|16.72 | |||
|13.75 | |||
|20.14 | |||
|19.87 | |||
|48.70 | |||
|79.61 | |||
|40.28 | |||
|121.26 | |||
|65.67 | |||
|150.97 | |||
|- | |||
! colspan="11" |Investment Ratios | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>Cash Flow Per Share</abbr> | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.04 | |||
|0.05 | |||
|0.05 | |||
|0.06 | |||
|0.05 | |||
|0.05 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|- | |||
!<abbr>CAPEX PS</abbr> | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
|0.00 | |||
| -0.02 | |||
| -0.02 | |||
| -0.02 | |||
| -0.03 | |||
| -0.03 | |||
| -0.03 | |||
| -0.03 | |||
|} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Sirius financial forecasts | |||
!€ | |||
!FY 2022 Act | |||
!FY 2023 Est | |||
! | |||
!FY 2024 Est | |||
! | |||
!FY 2025 Est | |||
! | |||
!FY 2026 Est | |||
! | |||
|- | |||
!12 Months Ending | |||
!03/31/2022 | |||
!03/31/2023 | |||
!# | |||
!03/31/2024 | |||
!# | |||
!03/31/2025 | |||
!# | |||
!03/31/2026 | |||
!# | |||
|- | |||
|FFO Per Share | |||
| | |||
|0.0815 | |||
|2 | |||
|0.0875 | |||
|2 | |||
|0.09 | |||
|1 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|Revenue | |||
|210,182,000 | |||
|158,333,333.3 | |||
|3 | |||
|163,666,666.7 | |||
|3 | |||
|169,000,000 | |||
|3 | |||
|311,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Operating Profit | |||
|181,224,000 | |||
|120,500,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|125,500,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|130,000,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|147,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|EPS, Adj+ | |||
|0.1329 | |||
|0.0806 | |||
|5 | |||
|0.0838 | |||
|5 | |||
|0.0845 | |||
|4 | |||
|0.097 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|EPS, GAAP | |||
|0.1348 | |||
|0.07 | |||
|2 | |||
|0.067666667 | |||
|3 | |||
|0.066 | |||
|1 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|EBIT | |||
|188,164,000 | |||
|120,500,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|125,500,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|130,000,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|147,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|EBITDA | |||
|190,495,000 | |||
|92,000,000 | |||
|3 | |||
|114,333,333.3 | |||
|3 | |||
|129,333,333.3 | |||
|3 | |||
|147,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Pre-Tax Profit | |||
|168,927,000 | |||
|94,475,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|98,575,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|101,000,000 | |||
|3 | |||
|132,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Net Income Adj+ | |||
|147,873,000 | |||
|107,325,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|121,350,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|126,625,000 | |||
|4 | |||
|115,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Net Income, GAAP | |||
|147,873,000 | |||
|95,500,000 | |||
|2 | |||
|97,950,000 | |||
|2 | |||
|120,000,000 | |||
|2 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|Net Debt | |||
|869,188,000 | |||
|829,000,000 | |||
|2 | |||
|293,333,333.3 | |||
|3 | |||
|276,333,333.3 | |||
|3 | |||
|935,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|BPS | |||
|1.015775144 | |||
|1.09 | |||
|2 | |||
|1.075 | |||
|2 | |||
|1.07 | |||
|2 | |||
|1.15 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|CPS | |||
|0.077237606 | |||
|0.064 | |||
|3 | |||
|0.065 | |||
|3 | |||
|0.065333333 | |||
|3 | |||
|0.088 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|DPS | |||
|0.0441 | |||
|0.0538 | |||
|5 | |||
|0.0546 | |||
|5 | |||
|0.0596 | |||
|5 | |||
|0.057 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Return on Equity (%) | |||
|13.96883125 | |||
|6.99 | |||
|2 | |||
|7.88 | |||
|2 | |||
|8.02 | |||
|2 | |||
|7.56 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Return on Assets (%) | |||
|7.569913544 | |||
|3.52 | |||
|1 | |||
|4.37 | |||
|1 | |||
|4.44 | |||
|1 | |||
|4.22 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Depreciation | |||
|1164000 | |||
|4900000 | |||
|1 | |||
|4900000 | |||
|1 | |||
|4900000 | |||
|1 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|Free Cash Flow | |||
| | |||
|54,504,432.62 | |||
|2 | |||
|56,568,264.38 | |||
|2 | |||
|60,140,167.07 | |||
|2 | |||
|63,425,148.26 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|CAPEX | |||
| | |||
| -51,450,000 | |||
|2 | |||
| -50,250,000 | |||
|2 | |||
| -15,555,000 | |||
|2 | |||
| -26,000,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|- | |||
|Net Asset Value | |||
| | |||
|109,000,000 | |||
|2 | |||
|113,500,000 | |||
|2 | |||
|121,500,000 | |||
|2 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|LTG % | |||
| | |||
|10.1 | |||
|1 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Current multiples | |||
! | |||
!Last 2 Semis Act | |||
!FY 2023 | |||
!FY 2024 | |||
!FY 2025 | |||
|- | |||
|Price/EPS, Adj+ | |||
| | |||
|11.93 | |||
|11.5 | |||
|11.36 | |||
|- | |||
|Price/Book | |||
|0.95 | |||
|0.89 | |||
|0.9 | |||
|0.9 | |||
|- | |||
|Price/Cash Flow | |||
|12.55 | |||
|15.09 | |||
|14.86 | |||
|14.86 | |||
|- | |||
|Price/FFO | |||
| | |||
|11.78 | |||
|10.98 | |||
|10.73 | |||
|- | |||
|EV/Revenue | |||
|9.53 | |||
|12.66 | |||
|12.24 | |||
|11.86 | |||
|- | |||
|EV/EBITDA | |||
|8.89 | |||
|21.78 | |||
|17.53 | |||
|15.5 | |||
|- | |||
|EV/EBIT | |||
|11.06 | |||
|16.63 | |||
|15.97 | |||
|15.42 | |||
|- | |||
|EV/OPP | |||
|11.06 | |||
|16.63 | |||
|15.97 | |||
|15.42 | |||
|- | |||
|Dividend Yield | |||
| | |||
|5.59 | |||
|5.69 | |||
|6.21 | |||
|} | |||
== Risks== | == Risks== | ||
Line 832: | Line 1,718: | ||
|Which valuation model do you want to use? | |Which valuation model do you want to use? | ||
|Discounted cash flow | |Discounted cash flow | ||
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that | |There are two main approaches to estimate the value of an investment: | ||
#By calculating the present value of the investment's expected future cash flows (i.e. discounted cash flow valuation); and | |||
#By comparing the investment to other similar investments (i.e. relative valuation). | |||
Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach<ref name=":5">Demirakos et al., 2010; Gleason et al., 2013</ref>, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Which financial forecasts to use? | |Which financial forecasts to use? | ||
| | |Stockhub | ||
| | |The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>''' | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Discount rate (%) | ||
| | |15% | ||
| | |There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Probability of success (%) | ||
| | |90% | ||
|Research suggests that | |Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>''' | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Discount rate (%) | ||
|10% | |||
| | |There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital. | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Probability of success (%) | ||
|100% | |||
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%. | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>''' | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Discount rate (%) | ||
| | |10% | ||
| | |There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Probability of success (%) | ||
|100% | |||
| | |Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%. | ||
|Research | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Other key inputs</div>''' | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the current value of the company? | |What's the current value of the company? | ||
| | |£981.20 million | ||
|As at | |As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of Sirius Real Estate Limited is £981.20 million. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | |Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | ||
|Between now and five years time | |Between now and five years time | ||
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years. Accordingly, | |Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref name=":1">https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf</ref> Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time. | ||
|} | |} | ||
=== | ===Sensitive analysis=== | ||
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): | The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): | ||
Line 966: | Line 1,779: | ||
#The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is xxx%). | #The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is xxx%). | ||
The impact of a | The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below. | ||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | {| class="wikitable sortable" | ||
Line 993: | Line 1,806: | ||
|} | |} | ||
==Appendix== | |||
===Relative valuation approach=== | |||
=== Relative valuation approach === | |||
As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach. | As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach. | ||
Line 1,084: | Line 1,814: | ||
Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next five years is xxx. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £xxx in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next five years is xxx. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £xxx in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | ||
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of xxx), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'xxx' one. | |||
====What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?==== | ====What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?==== | ||
Line 1,119: | Line 1,851: | ||
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | |Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | ||
|Between now and five years time | |Between now and five years time | ||
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref name=":1" | |Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref name=":1" /> Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time. | ||
|} | |} | ||
Line 1,148: | Line 1,880: | ||
|} | |} | ||
=== | ==Appendix== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+Cost of equity (%) | |+Cost of equity (%) | ||
Line 1,176: | Line 1,903: | ||
|Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium. | |Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium. | ||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+Adjusted Funds From Operations calculation | |+Adjusted Funds From Operations calculation | ||
Line 1,536: | Line 2,242: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2022 | |2022 | ||
| | |1.98 | ||
|2.37 | |2.37 | ||
|4. | |4.35 | ||
| | |12.69% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2021 | |2021 | ||
|1.82 | |1.82 | ||
| | |2.04 | ||
|3. | |3.86 | ||
| | |8.12% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2020 | |2020 | ||
Line 1,598: | Line 2,304: | ||
==== '''Investment risk''' ==== | ==== '''Investment risk''' ==== | ||
Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. Sirius' beta is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is less than 10% below the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in Sirius considered to be 'low' (6%>10%). | Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. Sirius' beta is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is less than 10% below the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in Sirius considered to be 'low' (6%>10%). | ||
=== Risk rating === | === Risk rating === | ||
Line 1,755: | Line 2,404: | ||
'''Weighted average debt expiry:''' is the weighted average time to repayment of loan facilities expressed in years. | '''Weighted average debt expiry:''' is the weighted average time to repayment of loan facilities expressed in years. | ||
==References and notes== | ==References and notes== |