Editing Test update

On 24th January 2024, Tesla announced its fourth quarter results, covering the period ended 31st December 2023. The key highlight of the results is that the total number of vehicles delivered in the year increased by 38% to 1,808,581. No information on the average selling price of the vehicles has been provided in the announcement.

Assuming that the average selling price of the vehicles is unchanged from the last reported price ($ccc on ccc), then the estimated revenue generated in the year is $ccc. The figure compares to the Stockhub consensus forecast of $ccc, a difference of $ccc in absolute terms and ccc% in relative terms. To reflect the difference, we adjust our company revenue standard deviation assumption by ccc to ccc (from ccc). All other assumptions are unchanged. The adjustment results in a ccc% change to the target price, increasing the price to $ccc (from $ccc).

Accordingly, ultimately, based on the assumptions provided on the Stockkhub platform, the investment remains a 'suitable' one for you if, among other criteria, your required:

* Return level is 39% per year or less in absolute terms;
* Risk level is 42% or more above the market risk level;
* Time horizon is five years or longer; and/or
* Objective is to help accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.

== What's the news? ==
On 24th January 2024, Tesla announced its fourth quarter results, covering the period ended 31st December 2023.

The key highlight of the results is that the total number of vehicles delivered in the year increased by 38% to 1,808,581. Other key highlights can be found in the table below. 

No details about the sales price is provided in the announcement.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Summary
!
!
! colspan="2" |Q4 2023
! colspan="2" |FY2023
|-
|
|
|Actual
|Change (%)
|Actual
|Change (%)
|-
| rowspan="3" |Model 3/Y
|Production
|476,777
|
|1,775,159
|
|-
|Deliveries
|461,538
|
|1,739,707
|
|-
|Subject to operating lease accounting
|2%
|
|
|
|-
| rowspan="3" |Other models
|Production
|18,212
|
|70,826
|
|-
|Deliveries
|22,969
|
|68,874
|
|-
|Subject to operating lease accounting
|3%
|
|
|
|-
| rowspan="3" |Total
|Production
|494,989
|
|1,845,985
|35%
|-
|Deliveries
|484,507
|
|1,808,581
|38%
|-
|Subject to operating lease accounting
|2%
|
|
|
|}

== How does the news impact the investment thesis of the company? ==
Assuming that the average selling price of the vehicles is unchanged from the last reported price ($ccc on ccc), then the estimated revenue generated in the quarter is $ccc and in the year is $ccc.

The annual figure compares to the Stockhub consensus forecast of $ccc, a difference of $ccc in absolute terms and cccc% in relative terms. To reflect the difference, we adjust our company revenue standard deviation assumption by ccc to ccc (from ccc). All other assumptions are unchanged.

The adjustment results in a ccc% change to the target price, increasing the price to $ccc (from $ccc).

Accordingly, ultimately, the investment remains a 'suitable' one.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Forecast change(s)
!Year since company inception
! colspan="4" |19
! colspan="4" |20
! colspan="4" |21
! colspan="4" |22
|-
!Year end date
! colspan="4" |'''31/12/2023'''
! colspan="4" |'''31/12/2024'''
! colspan="4" |'''31/12/2025'''
! colspan="4" |'''31/12/2026'''
|-
!
! colspan="2" |Forecast
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
! colspan="2" |Forecast
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
! colspan="2" |Forecast
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
! colspan="2" |Forecast
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
|-
!
!New 
!Old 
!Absolute
!Relative 
!New 
!Old 
!Absolute
!Relative 
!New 
!Old 
!Absolute
!Relative 
!New 
!Old 
!Absolute
!Relative 
|-
|Revenue
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Cost of goods sold
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|-
|Gross profit
|
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|
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|-
|Operating profit
|
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|-
|Net profit
|
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|}

{| class="wikitable"
|+Assumption change(s)
!
!New assumption
!Old assumption
!Commentary
!Assumption absolute change
!Assumption relative change (%)
!Resulting target price absolute change
!Resulting target price relative change (%)
|-
| colspan="8" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Revenue'''</div>
|-
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?
|Gaussian
|Gaussian
|Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function  (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)<ref>http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref>, so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue?
|6 years
|6 years
|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Tesla's current revenue amount (i.e. $54 billion) and Tesla's estimated lifespan (i.e. 60 years) and Tesla's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. growth stage), the Stockhub users suggest using 6 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 6 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|}

=== Forecasts ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Financials<ref>Source: Stockhub Limited</ref><ref group="Note" name="Note04" /><ref>Source: Stockhub Limited</ref><ref name="Note04" group="Note" />
|-
!Year 
!'''1''' !!'''2'''!!'''3'''!!'''4'''!!'''5'''
!'''6'''
!'''7'''
!'''8'''
!'''9'''
!'''10'''
!'''11'''
!'''12'''
!'''13'''
!'''14'''
!'''15'''
!'''16'''
!'''17'''
!18
!19
!20
!21
!22
!23
!24
!25
!26
!27
!28
!29
!30
!31
!32
!33
!34
!35
!36
!37
!38
!39
!40
!41
!42
!43
!44
!45
!46
!47
!48
!49
!50
!51
!52
!53
!54
!55
!56
!57
!58
!59
|-
|'''Year end date'''||'''31/12/2005'''||'''31/12/2006<ref name=":12">{{cite web|url=https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/07/14/2006-san-carlos-start-up-tesla-seeks-sexier-electric-car/|title=2006: San Carlos start-up Tesla seeks sexier electric car|date=July 14, 2014}}</ref><ref name="SEC">{{cite web | url=https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1318605 | title=Tesla, Inc. TSLA on Nasdaq | publisher=[[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]]}}</ref>'''||'''31/12/2007'''||'''31/12/2008'''||'''31/12/2009'''
|'''31/12/2010<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2011<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2012<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2013<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2014<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2015<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2016<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2017<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2018<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2019<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2020<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2021<ref name="SEC" />'''
|'''31/12/2022'''
|'''31/12/2023'''
|'''31/12/2024'''
|'''31/12/2025'''
|'''31/12/2026'''
|'''31/12/2027'''
|'''31/12/2028'''
|'''31/12/2029'''
|'''31/12/2030'''
|'''31/12/2031'''
|'''31/12/2032'''
|'''31/12/2033'''
|'''31/12/2034'''
|'''31/12/2035'''
|'''31/12/2036'''
|'''31/12/2037'''
|'''31/12/2038'''
|'''31/12/2039'''
|'''31/12/2040'''
|'''31/12/2041'''
|'''31/12/2042'''
|'''31/12/2043'''
|'''31/12/2044'''
|'''31/12/2045'''
|'''31/12/2046'''
|'''31/12/2047'''
|'''31/12/2048'''
|'''31/12/2049'''
|'''31/12/2050'''
|'''31/12/2051'''
|'''31/12/2052'''
|'''31/12/2053'''
|'''31/12/2054'''
|'''31/12/2055'''
|'''31/12/2056'''
|'''31/12/2057'''
|'''31/12/2058'''
|'''31/12/2059'''
|'''31/12/2060'''
|'''31/12/2061'''
|'''31/12/2062'''
|'''31/12/2063'''
|-
|
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Historic'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|'''Forecast'''
|
|-
| colspan="60" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Income statement'''</div>
|-
|Revenues ($'million)|| 0||0||0.073||15||112
|117
|204
|413
|2,013
|3,198
|4,046
|7,000
|11,759
|21,461
|24,578
|31,536
|53,823
|81,462
|$112,257
|$154,816
|$207,049
|$268,527
|$337,721
|$411,894
|$487,157
|$558,739
|$621,448
|$670,282
|$701,078
|$711,102
|$699,445
|$667,163
|$617,116
|$553,551
|$481,510
|$406,171
|$332,253
|$263,564
|$202,749
|$151,247
|$109,414
|$76,757
|$52,217
|$34,448
|$22,038
|$13,673
|$8,226
|$4,799
|$2,715
|$1,490
|$793
|$409
|$205
|$99
|$47
|$21
|$9
|$4
|$2
|-
|Gross profit ($'million)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|$33,677
|$46,445
|$62,115
|$80,558
|$101,316
|$185,352
|$219,221
|$251,432
|$279,652
|$301,627
|$315,485
|$319,996
|$314,750
|$300,223
|$277,702
|$249,098
|$216,679
|$182,777
|$149,514
|$118,604
|$91,237
|$68,061
|$49,236
|$34,541
|$23,498
|$15,502
|$9,917
|$6,153
|$3,702
|$2,160
|$1,222
|$670
|$357
|$184
|$92
|$45
|$21
|$10
|$4
|$2
|$1
|-
|Operating profit ($'million)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|$16,839
|$23,222
|$31,057
|$40,279
|$50,658
|$123,568
|$146,147
|$167,622
|$186,434
|$201,085
|$210,323
|$213,331
|$209,834
|$200,149
|$185,135
|$166,065
|$144,453
|$121,851
|$99,676
|$79,069
|$60,825
|$45,374
|$32,824
|$23,027
|$15,665
|$10,335
|$6,612
|$4,102
|$2,468
|$1,440
|$815
|$447
|$238
|$123
|$61
|$30
|$14
|$6
|$3
|$1
|$1
|-
|Net profits ($'million)|| style="color: red;" |-12|| style="color: red;" |-30|| style="color: red;" |-78|| style="color: red;" |-83|| style="color: red;" |−56
| style="color: red;" |−154
| style="color: red;" |−254
| style="color: red;" |−396
| style="color: red;" |−74
| style="color: red;" |−294
| style="color: red;" |−889
| style="color: red;" |−675
| style="color: red;" |−1,962
| style="color: red;" |−976
| style="color: red;" |−862
|721
|5,519
|12,556
|$13,302
|$18,346
|$24,535
|$31,820
|$40,020
|$97,619
|$115,456
|$132,421
|$147,283
|$158,857
|$166,156
|$168,531
|$165,769
|$158,118
|$146,256
|$131,192
|$114,118
|$96,263
|$78,744
|$62,465
|$48,052
|$35,846
|$25,931
|$18,191
|$12,376
|$8,164
|$5,223
|$3,240
|$1,949
|$1,137
|$643
|$353
|$188
|$97
|$48
|$24
|$11
|$5
|$2
|$1
|$0
|-
| colspan="60" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Balance sheet'''</div>
|-
|Total assets<br />($'million)
|8
|44
|34
|52
|130
|386
|713
|1,114
|2,417
|5,831
|8,068
|22,664
|28,655
|29,740
|34,309
|52,148
|62,131
|82,338
|
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|-
| colspan="60" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Other'''</div>
|-
|Employees
|NA
|70
|268
|252
|514
|899
|1,417
|2,914
|5,859
|10,161
|13,058
|17,782
|37,543
|48,817
|48,016
|70,757
|99,290
|127,855
|
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|}

=== Risks ===
ccc

{| class="wikitable"
|+Risk change(s)
|-
!
! colspan="2" |Risk
! colspan="2" |Risk change
|-
!
!New 
!Old 
!Absolute
!Relative 
|-
|Beta
|2.12
|2.12
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|Adjusted beta
|2.12
|2.12
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|Recommendation
|Suitable
|Suitable
|Suitable
|Suitable
|}

=== Valuation ===
ccc

{| class="wikitable"
|+Valuation change(s)
|-
!
! colspan="2" |Valuation
! colspan="2" |Valuation change
|-
!
!New 
!Old 
!Absolute
!Relative 
|-
|Five-year expected return
|(24)%
|(24)%
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|Annualised expected return
|(4)%
|(4)%
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|Recommendation
|Unsuitable
|Unsuitable
|No change
|No change
|}


{| class="wikitable"
|+ Assumption change(s)
!Description 
!New assumption
!Old assumption
!Commentary
!Assumption absolute change
!Assumption relative change (%)
!Resulting target price absolute change
!Resulting target price relative change (%)
|-
| colspan="8" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
| 15%
|15%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|
|
|
|
|-
|Probability of success (%)
| 90%
|90%
| Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%.
|
|
|
|
|-
| colspan="8" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Other key inputs</div>'''
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|$950.54 billion
|$950.54 billion
|As at 5th June 2022, the current value of the Tesla company is $950.54 billion.
|
|
|
|
|}



== References and notes ==
<references />