Ether - Revision history

161.12.100.241: /* Market */

2023-11-30T08:23:34Z

Market

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:23, 30 November 2023
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	=== Total Addressable Market (TAM) ===		=== Total Addressable Market (TAM) ===
	~~For~~ Ether, the ~~TAM would be the entire potential~~ market for ~~blockchain applications, smart contracts~~, and ~~cryptocurrencies~~. ~~This includes:~~		The TAM for Ether is the global currency market. This includes all forms of money circulation worldwide — from fiat currencies held in banks and cash reserves to investments and digital transactions. This encompasses every potential user or entity that could theoretically adopt Ether, either as a means of transaction, a store of value, or for investment purposes. It represents the maximum possible market opportunity for Ether, assuming universal adoption and acceptance.

	* The global ~~cryptocurrency~~ market, ~~which encompasses not only individuals~~ and ~~entities interested~~ in ~~digital currencies but also those interested in decentralised finance~~ (~~DeFi~~), ~~non-fungible tokens (NFTs)~~, and ~~other blockchain-based financial services.~~		The global currency market, including fiat money and investments, is vast. As of 2023, the total value of all the money in the world, including broad money (M3), which covers cash, bank deposits, and money market securities, was estimated to be in the range of approximately $100 trillion USD. Ether's TAM, when considering the potential to replace or complement global currency usage, would thus be a fraction of this amount.
	* The broader market ~~for digital contracts and decentralised applications across various industries such as finance~~, ~~healthcare~~, ~~real estate~~, ~~and supply chain management~~.
	* The potential market for blockchain as a service (~~BaaS~~) and ~~infrastructure for companies~~ and ~~developers~~.		As of July 2023, the total value of narrow money globally, which includes all physical money (notes and coins) and money deposited in savings and checking accounts worldwide, was approximately $40 trillion. This figure represents the M1 money supply, a classification of money that covers the most liquid forms of currency in circulation.<ref>https://www.rankred.com/how-much-money-is-there-in-the-world/#:~:text=As%20of%20July%202023%2C%20the,%E2%80%99</ref>

	=== Serviceable Available Market (SAM) ===		=== Serviceable Available Market (SAM) ===
	SAM ~~for~~ Ether is ~~narrower~~ and ~~represents~~ the ~~portion~~ of ~~the TAM it can serve under current conditions~~. ~~This includes:~~		The SAM narrows down to the global cryptocurrency market. This is the market segment that Ether is actually equipped to serve and includes all individuals and entities currently engaged in or open to engaging with cryptocurrencies. This market is more specific to Ether's capabilities and reflects the growing interest and acceptance of digital currencies for various uses, including remittances, investment, online transactions, and as a hedge against traditional currency fluctuations.

	* The ~~current~~ cryptocurrency market ~~that~~ is ~~willing or able~~ to ~~transact~~ in ~~or use~~ Ether, considering ~~factors like regulatory environments and platform compatibility.~~		The global cryptocurrency market is a subset of the broader currency market. As of 2023, the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies was fluctuating around $1 trillion to $2 trillion USD. Ether, being the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, holds a significant presence in this space, but the SAM for Ether would include the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies, considering that these users are potentially open to using Ether.
	* The market for decentralised applications and smart contracts that are ~~currently feasible and practical~~ to ~~be built on Ethereum.~~
	* Sectors actively adopting blockchain technology where Ethereum’s offerings (like smart contracts) are applicable and competitive.

	=== Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) ===		=== Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) ===
	SOM is the ~~portion~~ of the SAM that Ether can realistically capture. ~~This depends on:~~		The SOM further narrows down to the U.S. cryptocurrency market. This represents the segment of the SAM that Ether can realistically expect to capture in the near to medium term. It takes into account factors such as Ether's current market penetration in the U.S., regulatory environment, competition from other cryptocurrencies, technological advancements, and market trends within the United States. The U.S. market is particularly significant due to its substantial economic size, high level of technology adoption, and its influential role in global financial systems.

	* Ethereum's ~~competitive positioning against~~ other ~~blockchain platforms and~~ cryptocurrencies.
	* Adoption rates, ~~network effects~~, and the ~~growth~~ of ~~the Ethereum ecosystem including DApps, DeFi~~, and ~~other services.~~
	* Technological advancements and scalability improvements, especially post-Ethereum 2.0 upgrades, which might increase Ether's market share.

	~~Quantifying these markets in precise financial terms~~ is ~~challenging due to~~ the ~~rapidly evolving nature~~ of the ~~blockchain industry, regulatory uncertainties~~, ~~and~~ the ~~speculative nature~~ of ~~cryptocurrencies. The values can fluctuate significantly~~ based on ~~market sentiments~~, ~~technological advancements, and global economic conditions~~. ~~Moreover, as~~ a ~~decentralised and open-source project, Ethereum's~~ market ~~potential is also influenced by community and developer participation~~, ~~making precise market estimations complex~~.		Estimating the U.S. cryptocurrency market is more complex, as it would involve considering the proportion of the U.S. population or financial sector engaged in cryptocurrency usage. As a rough estimate, if we consider the U.S. as accounting for about 20-30% of the global cryptocurrency market (a broad assumption based on its economic size and level of investment in cryptocurrencies), the SOM for Ether in the U.S. could be a proportion of the global market cap, roughly in the range of $200 billion to $600 billion USD.

	== Competition ==		== Competition ==

154.61.128.74 at 21:47, 29 November 2023

2023-11-29T21:47:00Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:47, 29 November 2023
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	For those considering investments with an annual return threshold of 39% or less, Ether, if it meets its projected returns, emerges as a viable option. This makes it a potentially suitable investment choice for certain investors, given its high-risk, high-reward profile.		For those considering investments with an annual return threshold of 39% or less, Ether, if it meets its projected returns, emerges as a viable option. This makes it a potentially suitable investment choice for certain investors, given its high-risk, high-reward profile.

			'''Fun fact:''' Ether was notably launched through an Initial Coin Offering in 2014, raising over $18 million and marking one of the earliest successful examples of this fundraising method in the crypto world.

	== Operations ==		== Operations ==

161.12.100.241: /* What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? */

2023-11-29T20:29:14Z

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:29, 29 November 2023
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	Decentralised networks significantly bolster an application's security and resistance to censorship. Ethereum, a pioneering blockchain, exemplifies this by supporting apps that operate on such a network. Ether, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, plays a pivotal role in this ecosystem. It's not just any digital currency; Ether is unique as it's used specifically for transaction fees and computational services on the Ethereum blockchain.		Decentralised networks significantly bolster an application's security and resistance to censorship. Ethereum, a pioneering blockchain, exemplifies this by supporting apps that operate on such a network. Ether, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, plays a pivotal role in this ecosystem. It's not just any digital currency; Ether is unique as it's used specifically for transaction fees and computational services on the Ethereum blockchain.

	Investing in Ether comes with a high risk level. Its adjusted beta is 80% higher than the market average (1.80 vs. 1), indicating a volatile investment landscape. However, potential rewards are noteworthy. If Ether's share in the money supply rises from 0.5% to 10%, Stockhub users predict a five-year return of 5x on Ether investments. This translates to an annual return of 39%. In practical terms, a £100,000 investment could yield £500,000 in five years.		Investing in Ether comes with a high risk level. Its adjusted beta is 80% higher than the market average (1.80 vs. 1), indicating a volatile investment landscape. However, potential rewards are noteworthy. If Ether's share in the money supply rises from 0.62% to 5%, Stockhub users predict a five-year return of 5x on Ether investments. This translates to an annual return of 39%. In practical terms, a £100,000 investment could yield £500,000 in five years.

	For those considering investments with an annual return threshold of 39% or less, Ether, if it meets its projected returns, emerges as a viable option. This makes it a potentially suitable investment choice for certain investors, given its high-risk, high-reward profile.		For those considering investments with an annual return threshold of 39% or less, Ether, if it meets its projected returns, emerges as a viable option. This makes it a potentially suitable investment choice for certain investors, given its high-risk, high-reward profile.
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	\|-		\|-
	\|What's the estimated investment peak market share?		\|What's the estimated investment peak market share?
	\|10%		\|5%
	\|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the key benefit of the asset, the peak market share of Ether is around 10.00%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 29th November 2023, Ether's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.62%.		\|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the key benefit of the asset, the peak market share of Ether is around 5.00%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 29th November 2023, Ether's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.62%.
	\|-		\|-
	\|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate investment value?		\|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate investment value?
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	#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $40 trillion);		#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $40 trillion);
	#Ether peak market share (the default share is 10%); and		#Ether peak market share (the default share is 5%); and
	#The estimated Ether lifespan (the default lifespan is 250 ~~calyears~~).		#The estimated Ether lifespan (the default lifespan is 250 years).

	The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Ether investment is shown in the table below.		The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Ether investment is shown in the table below.

161.12.100.241 at 20:27, 29 November 2023

2023-11-29T20:27:13Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:27, 29 November 2023
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			Decentralised networks significantly bolster an application's security and resistance to censorship. Ethereum, a pioneering blockchain, exemplifies this by supporting apps that operate on such a network. Ether, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, plays a pivotal role in this ecosystem. It's not just any digital currency; Ether is unique as it's used specifically for transaction fees and computational services on the Ethereum blockchain.

			Investing in Ether comes with a high risk level. Its adjusted beta is 80% higher than the market average (1.80 vs. 1), indicating a volatile investment landscape. However, potential rewards are noteworthy. If Ether's share in the money supply rises from 0.5% to 10%, Stockhub users predict a five-year return of 5x on Ether investments. This translates to an annual return of 39%. In practical terms, a £100,000 investment could yield £500,000 in five years.

			For those considering investments with an annual return threshold of 39% or less, Ether, if it meets its projected returns, emerges as a viable option. This makes it a potentially suitable investment choice for certain investors, given its high-risk, high-reward profile.

	== Operations ==		== Operations ==
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	== Competition ==		== Competition ==
	Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, has several peers or competitors in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. These peers offer similar functionalities, such as smart contracts and ~~decentralized~~ applications (DApps), or they compete in the broader cryptocurrency market as alternatives to Ether. Here are some of Ether's closest peers:		Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, has several peers or competitors in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. These peers offer similar functionalities, such as smart contracts and decentralised applications (DApps), or they compete in the broader cryptocurrency market as alternatives to Ether. Here are some of Ether's closest peers:

	# '''Bitcoin (BTC):''' Although Bitcoin's primary purpose is to act as a digital currency and store of value, it's often compared with Ether due to its prominence and role as the first and most valuable cryptocurrency.		# '''Bitcoin (BTC):''' Although Bitcoin's primary purpose is to act as a digital currency and store of value, it's often compared with Ether due to its prominence and role as the first and most valuable cryptocurrency.
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	# '''Tezos (XTZ):''' Tezos is another blockchain that facilitates smart contracts and DApps. It has a unique self-amending cryptographic ledger which allows the network to upgrade itself over time without having to fork the blockchain.		# '''Tezos (XTZ):''' Tezos is another blockchain that facilitates smart contracts and DApps. It has a unique self-amending cryptographic ledger which allows the network to upgrade itself over time without having to fork the blockchain.
	# '''Avalanche (AVAX):''' Avalanche is a blockchain platform that focuses on high throughput, low latency, and scalability. It's gaining popularity for DApps, particularly in the DeFi space.		# '''Avalanche (AVAX):''' Avalanche is a blockchain platform that focuses on high throughput, low latency, and scalability. It's gaining popularity for DApps, particularly in the DeFi space.
	# '''Algorand (ALGO):''' Algorand is a blockchain platform that aims to deliver ~~decentralization~~, scalability, and security for a wide range of applications, including financial tools and services.		# '''Algorand (ALGO):''' Algorand is a blockchain platform that aims to deliver decentralisation, scalability, and security for a wide range of applications, including financial tools and services.
	# '''EOS (EOS):''' EOS is a platform for developing DApps. It's designed to be more scalable than Ethereum, with an emphasis on user-friendliness and efficiency.		# '''EOS (EOS):''' EOS is a platform for developing DApps. It's designed to be more scalable than Ethereum, with an emphasis on user-friendliness and efficiency.
	# '''Tron (TRX):''' Tron is another blockchain platform that enables the development of smart contracts and DApps, with a particular focus on digital content and entertainment.		# '''Tron (TRX):''' Tron is another blockchain platform that enables the development of smart contracts and DApps, with a particular focus on digital content and entertainment.
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	\|style="background: green; color: white;" \|✓		\|style="background: green; color: white;" \|✓
	\|-		\|-
	\|~~Decentralized~~ Finance (DeFi) Support		\|Decentralised Finance (DeFi) Support
	\|style="background: green; color: white;" \|✓		\|style="background: green; color: white;" \|✓
	\|style="background: red; color: white;" \|✗		\|style="background: red; color: white;" \|✗
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	== Valuation ==		== Valuation ==

	~~==Valuation==~~

	=== What's the expected return of an investment in Ether? ===		=== What's the expected return of an investment in Ether? ===
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	\|What's the estimated investment peak market share?		\|What's the estimated investment peak market share?
	\|10%		\|10%
	\|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the key benefit of the asset, the peak market share of Ether is around 10.00%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of ~~14th~~ November 2023, Ether's current share of the market is estimated at around 1.77%.		\|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the key benefit of the asset, the peak market share of Ether is around 10.00%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 29th November 2023, Ether's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.62%.
	\|-		\|-
	\|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate investment value?		\|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate investment value?
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	\|What's the estimated standard deviation of asset value?		\|What's the estimated standard deviation of asset value?
	\|50 years		\|50 years
	\|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of value occur? Based on Ether's current price (i.e. $37,~~257~~.50) and Ether's estimated lifespan (i.e. 250 years), the Stockhub users suggest using 50 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 100 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.		\|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of value occur? Based on Ether's current price (i.e. $2,044.88) and Ether's estimated lifespan (i.e. 250 years), the Stockhub users suggest using 50 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 100 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
	\|-		\|-
	\|What's the current value of the investment?		\|What's the current value of the investment?
	\|$~~709~~,~~551~~,~~271~~,~~083~~		\|$243,366,347,553
	\|According to Yahoo Finance, the current value of Ether as of 15th November 2023 is $~~709~~,~~551~~,~~271~~,~~083~~.~~<ref name=":0">https://finance.yahoo.com/cryptocurrencies/</ref>~~ Ether currently trades at $36,~~310<ref name=":0" /> and the maximum number of coins is 21 million~~.		\|According to Yahoo Finance, the current value of Ether as of 15th November 2023 is $243,366,347,553. Ether currently trades at $2,044.88.
	\|-		\|-
	\|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?		\|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
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	#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $40 trillion);		#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $40 trillion);
	#Ether peak market share (the default share is 10%); and		#Ether peak market share (the default share is 10%); and
	#The estimated Ether lifespan (the default lifespan is ~~1,000 years~~).		#The estimated Ether lifespan (the default lifespan is 250 calyears).

	The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Ether investment is shown in the table below.		The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Ether investment is shown in the table below.

161.12.100.241: /* Risks */

2023-11-29T19:26:47Z

Risks

@@ Line 223: / Line 223: @@
 == Risks ==
-Investing in Ether, like any cryptocurrency, carries several key risks that potential investors should be aware of:
+As with any investment, investing in Ether carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Ether's adjusted beta (i.e. 1.80), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Ether is 'high'.
 # '''Volatility:''' Cryptocurrencies, including Ether, are known for their high price volatility. Prices can rapidly increase or decrease within a short period, influenced by factors like regulatory news, technological developments, market sentiment, and broader economic factors. This volatility can result in significant gains or losses.
 # '''Regulatory Risk:''' The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is still evolving and can vary significantly by country. Changes in regulations, such as those related to trading, taxation, or the legality of cryptocurrencies, can impact the value and legality of holding or using Ether.
@@ Line 237: / Line 240: @@
 == Valuation ==
 == Appendix ==

161.12.100.241 at 19:16, 29 November 2023

2023-11-29T19:16:18Z

Show changes

161.12.100.241: /* Risks */

2023-11-29T19:09:11Z

Risks

Show changes

161.12.100.241: /* Competition */

2023-11-29T19:04:48Z

Competition

Show changes

161.12.100.241: /* What's Ether and what makes it unique? */

2023-11-29T19:00:14Z

What's Ether and what makes it unique?

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:00, 29 November 2023
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	# '''Wide Adoption and Ecosystem:''' Ether benefits from the broad adoption of the Ethereum platform. It's the backbone of a burgeoning ecosystem that includes DeFi (Decentralised Finance), NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), DAOs (Decentralised Autonomous Organisations), and much more. This ecosystem supports a wide range of use cases and has a substantial developer community, contributing to Ether's value and utility.		# '''Wide Adoption and Ecosystem:''' Ether benefits from the broad adoption of the Ethereum platform. It's the backbone of a burgeoning ecosystem that includes DeFi (Decentralised Finance), NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), DAOs (Decentralised Autonomous Organisations), and much more. This ecosystem supports a wide range of use cases and has a substantial developer community, contributing to Ether's value and utility.
	# '''Flexibility and Programmability:''' Ethereum, and by extension Ether, is known for its flexibility and programmability. This allows for continuous innovation and development, enabling the network to adapt and incorporate new features and improvements over time.		# '''Flexibility and Programmability:''' Ethereum, and by extension Ether, is known for its flexibility and programmability. This allows for continuous innovation and development, enabling the network to adapt and incorporate new features and improvements over time.

	In summary, Ether is not just a cryptocurrency but also an integral component of the Ethereum ecosystem, enabling and powering a wide range of decentralised applications, innovations, and economic activities. Its unique role in facilitating smart contracts, coupled with Ethereum's transition to PoS and continuous evolution, sets it apart in the blockchain and cryptocurrency landscape.

	== Market ==		== Market ==

161.12.100.241: /* Competition */

2023-11-27T19:58:02Z

Competition

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:58, 27 November 2023
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	These platforms are considered peers of Ether because they offer similar functionalities or compete for market share in the crypto and blockchain space. Each has its unique features and focuses, but they all contribute to the rapidly evolving landscape of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.		These platforms are considered peers of Ether because they offer similar functionalities or compete for market share in the crypto and blockchain space. Each has its unique features and focuses, but they all contribute to the rapidly evolving landscape of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.
			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|+
			!Feature/Cryptocurrency
			!Ether (ETH)
			!Bitcoin (BTC)
			!Binance Coin (BNB)
			!Cardano (ADA)
			!Polkadot (DOT)
			!Solana (SOL)
			!Tezos (XTZ)
			!Avalanche (AVAX)
			!Algorand (ALGO)
			!EOS (EOS)
			!Tron (TRX)
			\|-
			\|Smart Contracts
			\|✓
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Support
			\|✓
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|High Transaction Throughput
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|Low Transaction Fees
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|Proof of Stake (PoS)
			\|✓
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|NFT Capabilities
			\|✓
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|Large Developer Community
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|Interoperability with Other Chains
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|-
			\|Advanced Scaling Solutions
			\|✗
			\|✗
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|-
			\|Established Track Record
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|✓
			\|}
			Note:

			* The "High Transaction Throughput" and "Low Transaction Fees" rows are relative and may vary based on network conditions and ongoing upgrades. For example, Ethereum's transition to Ethereum 2.0 is expected to improve its scalability and reduce fees.
			* "Advanced Scaling Solutions" refers to unique or innovative approaches to handling a large number of transactions, which goes beyond basic blockchain functionality.
			* The presence of a tick or cross is based on the general capabilities or features of each blockchain as of my last update in April 2023. These aspects can evolve with technological advancements and network upgrades.

	== Risks ==		== Risks ==