FuelCell Energy, Inc. - Revision history

>Samhulse1234 at 15:12, 11 August 2023

2023-08-11T15:12:48Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:12, 11 August 2023
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			<references />

	== Company Overview ==		== Company Overview ==

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	Thus, while grey hydrogen production is set to grow it is far outpaced by green hydrogen.		Thus, while grey hydrogen production is set to grow it is far outpaced by green hydrogen.

	A helping factor to the rise of hydrogen is the lowered costs of renewable energy which is required for green hydrogen. A key example of this is solar energy which is 25% the price of what it used to be (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/green-hydrogen-market-92444177.html). Similarly the cost of electrolysers for green hydrogen is about half the price of what it was 5 years ago, particularly from the developments in the oxide membrane which allows for near 100% efficiency for factories with already hot settings.		A helping factor to the rise of hydrogen is the lowered costs of renewable energy which is required for green hydrogen. A key example of this is solar energy which is 75% the price of what it used to be (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/green-hydrogen-market-92444177.html). Similarly the cost of electrolysers for green hydrogen is about half the price of what it was 5 years ago, particularly from the developments in the oxide membrane which allows for near 100% efficiency for factories with already hot settings.

	Climate goals have been set by almost every country in the world. Hydrogen is a key and realistic method of countries achieving these goals. This is why the EU 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and to import 10 million tonnes by 2030 [https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-systems-integration/hydrogen_en (energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-systems-integration/hydrogen_en).] This is despite the EU only having 2% of hydrogen in their total energy consumption, below the global average of 2.5%.		Climate goals have been set by almost every country in the world. Hydrogen is a key and realistic method of countries achieving these goals. This is why the EU 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and to import 10 million tonnes by 2030 [https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-systems-integration/hydrogen_en (energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-systems-integration/hydrogen_en).] This is despite the EU only having 2% of hydrogen in their total energy consumption, below the global average of 2.5%.

>Samhulse1234: /* Investment Thesis */

2023-08-11T15:05:32Z

Investment Thesis

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	== Investment Thesis ==		== Investment Thesis ==
	FuelCell Energy is a speculative turnaround play on the growth of distributed carbon-free baseload power and carbon capture. While still unprofitable, its proprietary fuel cell technology provides unique advantages in high efficiency, fuel flexibility and emissions reductions. At 5x 2023 projected sales, the stock appears to discount significant execution risk. But success in commercialising the carbon capture solution and improving profitability could catalyse the shares. Investors should size positions accordingly given the binary, high-risk/high-reward nature of the opportunity here.		FuelCell Energy is a speculative turnaround play on the growth of distributed carbon-free baseload power and carbon capture. While still unprofitable, its proprietary fuel cell technology provides unique advantages in high efficiency, fuel flexibility and emissions reductions. At 5x 2023 projected sales, the stock appears to discount significant execution risk. But success in commercialising the carbon capture solution and improving profitability could catalyse the shares. Investors should size positions accordingly given the binary, high-risk/high-reward nature of the opportunity here.

			Fuel Cell Energy’s price to earnings ratio is -5.91 in comparison to Bloom Energy which uses the same methodology of abstracting hydrogen and is also an American competitor has a higher P/E ratio of -8.45. This means that Bloom Energy has a more inflated share price while considering earnings per share. This is understandable given it is a much larger company with more widespread operations and is also more efficient than Fuel Cell. Given the size difference between the companies Bloom Energy is a safer investment as it is more consolidated within the hydrogen industry. Furthermore, Fuel Cell’s 2022 operating loss as a percentage of total revenue was 23.25% as opposed to Bloom’s 21.7%This is even after Fuel Cell sold an operating unit for the first time to boost revenue and improve the operating margin.

	The company represents a high-risk, high-reward speculative investment opportunity. For investors with longer time horizons and higher risk tolerance, shares could return multiples if execution is strong. But the downside is substantial if growth stalls.		The company represents a high-risk, high-reward speculative investment opportunity. For investors with longer time horizons and higher risk tolerance, shares could return multiples if execution is strong. But the downside is substantial if growth stalls.

>Tsabry at 14:24, 11 August 2023

2023-08-11T14:24:50Z

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	Thus the average projection of growth of hydrogen production of 8.8% annually is likely to be accurate for the coming years but in the few years before 2030 it is likely to be underplayed. I thus project a great 'surge' in hydrogen production towards 2030 (https://renewablesnow.com/news/hydrogen-production-to-surge-by-2030-as-more-countries-embrace-it-720430/). Analysts have stated that the period post 2020 is the time hydrogen will become mainstream - going from MW to GW (https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf). I thus differentiate from the mainstream view that the hydrogen surge will begin after 2030, as illustrated by PWC (https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-utilities-resources/future-energy/green-hydrogen-cost.html). From the political steps taken by governments production and investment should surge 2 or 3 years before 2030.		Thus the average projection of growth of hydrogen production of 8.8% annually is likely to be accurate for the coming years but in the few years before 2030 it is likely to be underplayed. I thus project a great 'surge' in hydrogen production towards 2030 (https://renewablesnow.com/news/hydrogen-production-to-surge-by-2030-as-more-countries-embrace-it-720430/). Analysts have stated that the period post 2020 is the time hydrogen will become mainstream - going from MW to GW (https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf). I thus differentiate from the mainstream view that the hydrogen surge will begin after 2030, as illustrated by PWC (https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-utilities-resources/future-energy/green-hydrogen-cost.html). From the political steps taken by governments production and investment should surge 2 or 3 years before 2030.

	== Main ~~competitors~~ ==		== Main Competitors ==
	'''Bloom Energy'''		'''Bloom Energy'''

	* Revenue of $462.6 million and Gross margin of 15.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 but Operating loss of ($40.6) million (~~[https://www~~.~~bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-reports-fourth-quarter-~~and~~-full-year-~~2022-~~financial-results/#~~:~~~:text=Gross%20margin%20of%2012.4%25%20in,(%24114.5)%20million%20in%202021.~~ https://www.bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2022-financial-results/#:~:text=Gross%20margin%20of%2012.4%25%20in,(%24114.5)%20million%20in%202021.])		* Revenue of $462.6 million and Gross margin of 15.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 but Operating loss of ($40.6) million)<ref>Bloom Energy. (2023). ''Bloom Energy Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results - Bloom Energy''. [online] Available at: <nowiki>https://www.bloomenergy.com/news/bloom-energy-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2022-financial-results/#:~:text=Gross%20margin%20of%2012.4%25%20in,(%24114.5)%20million%20in%202021</nowiki>. [Accessed 11 Aug. 2023].

			‌</ref>
	* Revenue of $1,199.1 million in 2022, an increase of 23.3% compared to $972.2 million in 2021;		* Revenue of $1,199.1 million in 2022, an increase of 23.3% compared to $972.2 million in 2021;
	** Gross margin of 12.4% in 2022, a decline of 8.0 percentage points compared to 20.3% in 2021.		** Gross margin of 12.4% in 2022, a decline of 8.0 percentage points compared to 20.3% in 2021.
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	'''Linde'''		'''Linde'''

	* ~~revenue~~ in 2022 was 33.364 billion, up from 30.793 billion in 2021		* Revenue in 2022 was 33.364 billion, up from 30.793 billion in 2021
	* operating profit was 5.369 billion in 2022, up from 4.984 billion in 2021		* operating profit was 5.369 billion in 2022, up from 4.984 billion in 2021

>Samhulse1234: /* Cost of hyrdrogen energy vs fossil fuels */

2023-08-11T14:20:05Z

Cost of hyrdrogen energy vs fossil fuels

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	The use of electrolysis to abstract hydrogen as opposed to the steam methane process is due to experience a 16% annual growth rate up to 2028 (www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190618005111/en/Navigant-Research-Report-Shows-the-Global-Market-for-Electrolyzers-is-Expected-to-Grow-at-16-Annually-Through-2028)		The use of electrolysis to abstract hydrogen as opposed to the steam methane process is due to experience a 16% annual growth rate up to 2028 (www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190618005111/en/Navigant-Research-Report-Shows-the-Global-Market-for-Electrolyzers-is-Expected-to-Grow-at-16-Annually-Through-2028)


			'''Conclusion'''

			As Fuel Cell's electrolyser is among the most efficient on the market in terms of energy production it is very realistic that the company will at least continue with market benchmark performances and thus maintian market share.

	== Traction of Hydrogen produced by Fuel Cell Energy ==		== Traction of Hydrogen produced by Fuel Cell Energy ==
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	The annual growth of hyrdrogen energy of 8.8% to 2030 is based off the assumption the current cost ratio between the different energy sources.		The annual growth of hyrdrogen energy of 8.8% to 2030 is based off the assumption the current cost ratio between the different energy sources.

	Green hydrogen currently costs ~~about 4.1~~$ . kg ([https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022). https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022).])		Green hydrogen currently costs between 3$ to 8$ per kg ([https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022). https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022).]) This is dependent on the renewable infrastructure in the local region. Thus, if renewable capacity is increased the cost of green hydrogen could be as low as 3$ per kg even with no advances in technology and subsequent reductions in cost.

	In October 2021 the cost of green hydrogen was lower than the cost of grey hydrogen in many parts of the world (https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/102221-european-green-hydrogen-costs-already-competitive-with-fossil-fuels-say-producers). This was mainly due to the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war. Although caused by a singular event, it appears the war is projected to last years. This will likely shift the balance between grey and green hydrogen as well as hydrogen energy itself against fossil fuels.		In October 2021 the cost of green hydrogen was lower than the cost of grey hydrogen in many parts of the world (https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/102221-european-green-hydrogen-costs-already-competitive-with-fossil-fuels-say-producers). This was mainly due to the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war. Although caused by a singular event, it appears the war is projected to last years. This will likely shift the balance between grey and green hydrogen as well as hydrogen energy itself against fossil fuels.
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	Combined with this, heating of homes from hydrogen will almost inevitably undergo an exponential surge towards 2030. The UK government has stated that 3 million homes in the UK will be heated by hydrogen by 2030 (https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-9905101/Millions-homes-hydrogen-powered-2030-drive-energy-bills.html). This is over 10% of UK homes.		Combined with this, heating of homes from hydrogen will almost inevitably undergo an exponential surge towards 2030. The UK government has stated that 3 million homes in the UK will be heated by hydrogen by 2030 (https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-9905101/Millions-homes-hydrogen-powered-2030-drive-energy-bills.html). This is over 10% of UK homes.

	Thus the average projection of growth of hydrogen production of 8.8% annually is likely to be accurate for the coming years but in the few years before 2030 it is likely to be underplayed. I thus project a great 'surge' in hydrogen production towards 2030 (https://renewablesnow.com/news/hydrogen-production-to-surge-by-2030-as-more-countries-embrace-it-720430/).		Thus the average projection of growth of hydrogen production of 8.8% annually is likely to be accurate for the coming years but in the few years before 2030 it is likely to be underplayed. I thus project a great 'surge' in hydrogen production towards 2030 (https://renewablesnow.com/news/hydrogen-production-to-surge-by-2030-as-more-countries-embrace-it-720430/). Analysts have stated that the period post 2020 is the time hydrogen will become mainstream - going from MW to GW (https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf). I thus differentiate from the mainstream view that the hydrogen surge will begin after 2030, as illustrated by PWC (https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-utilities-resources/future-energy/green-hydrogen-cost.html). From the political steps taken by governments production and investment should surge 2 or 3 years before 2030.

	== Main competitors ==		== Main competitors ==
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	* gross loss in 2021 of 6.5, 23.5 million in 2022. This jump has been explained by extra costs incurred by REFHYNE I and Leuna projects.([https://itm-power-assets.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/2022_Annual_Report_d61e87a868.pdf https://itm-power-assets.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/2022_Annual_Report_d61e87a868.pdf)]		* gross loss in 2021 of 6.5, 23.5 million in 2022. This jump has been explained by extra costs incurred by REFHYNE I and Leuna projects.([https://itm-power-assets.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/2022_Annual_Report_d61e87a868.pdf https://itm-power-assets.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/2022_Annual_Report_d61e87a868.pdf)]
	* Pre tax loss of 27.6 million in 2021 and 46.7 in 2022		* Pre tax loss of 27.6 million in 2021 and 46.7 in 2022


			Fuell Cell is thus a smaller player than many in the hydrogen industry. It is also much more horizontally integrated than players like Linde. However, despite this, due to the numerous methods of carrying out electrolysis it is much more difficult to obtain monopolistic power of coercion in the market. Furthermore, despite being a much smaller company than others it is still more efficient than most in terms of energy input to output.

	== Recent Financial Performance ==		== Recent Financial Performance ==

>Tsabry: /* FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCE, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed base-load power generation. It offers SureSource1500, a 1.4-megawatt (M */

2023-08-11T14:16:53Z

FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCE, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed base-load power generation. It offers SureSource1500, a 1.4-megawatt (M

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:16, 11 August 2023
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	== Company Overview ==		== Company Overview ==

	== FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCE, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed base-load power generation. It offers SureSource1500, a 1.4-megawatt (MW) platform; SureSource 3000, a 2.8 MW platform; SureSource 4000, a 3.7 MW platform; SureSource 250, a 250-kilowatt (kW) platform; SureSource 400, a 400-kW platform; and SureSource Hydrogen, a 2.3 MW platform that is designed to produce up to 1,200 kilograms of hydrogen per day for multi-megawatt utility, microgrid, and distributed hydrogen applications, as well as on-site heat and chilling applications. ==		== FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCE), together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services stationary fuel cell power plants for distributed base-load power generation.It offers SureSource1500, a 1.4-megawatt (MW) platform; SureSource 3000, a 2.8 MW platform; SureSource 4000, a 3.7 MW platform; SureSource 250, a 250-kilowatt (kW) platform; SureSource 400, a 400-kW platform; and SureSource Hydrogen, a 2.3 MW platform that is designed to produce up to 1,200 kilograms of hydrogen per day for multi-megawatt utility, microgrid, and distributed hydrogen applications, as well as on-site heat and chilling applications. ==
	It also provides a SureSource Capture system that separates and concentrates carbon dioxide from the flue gases of natural gas, biomass, or coal-fired power plants, as well as industrial facilities; solid oxide fuel cell/solid oxide electrolysis cell stack technology. The company's SureSource power plants generate clean electricity, usable heat, water, and hydrogen. In addition, it provides engineering, procurement, and construction services; project financing services; real-time monitoring and remote operation, online support system, preventative maintenance, parts and supplies, on-site and classroom training, and power plant refurbishment/recycling services, as well as technical services in the areas of plant operation and performance, and fuel processing. It serves various markets, including utilities and independent power producers, industrial and process applications, education and health care, data centres and communication, wastewater treatment, government, microgrids, food and beverage, and commercial and hospitality. The company primarily operates in the United States, South Korea, England, Germany, and Switzerland. FuelCell Energy, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.		It also provides a SureSource Capture system that separates and concentrates carbon dioxide from the flue gases of natural gas, biomass, or coal-fired power plants, as well as industrial facilities; solid oxide fuel cell/solid oxide electrolysis cell stack technology. The company's SureSource power plants generate clean electricity, usable heat, water, and hydrogen. <ref>Fuelcellenergy.com. (2023). ''The Global Leader in Fuel Cell Technology \| FuelCell Energy''. [online] Available at: <nowiki>https://www.fuelcellenergy.com/</nowiki> [Accessed 11 Aug. 2023].

			‌</ref>

			In addition, it provides engineering, procurement, and construction services; project financing services; real-time monitoring and remote operation, online support system, preventative maintenance, parts and supplies, on-site and classroom training, and power plant refurbishment/recycling services, as well as technical services in the areas of plant operation and performance, and fuel processing.

			It serves various markets, including utilities and independent power producers, industrial and process applications, education and health care, data centres and communication, wastewater treatment, government, microgrids, food and beverage, and commercial and hospitality. The company primarily operates in the United States, South Korea, England, Germany, and Switzerland. FuelCell Energy, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.

	== About ==		== About ==
	FuelCell Energy Inc. founded in 1969 and headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut is an American energy company specialising in the design, manufacturing, operation, and maintenance of fuel cell power plants. Its proprietary fuel cell technology utilises carbonate fuel cells that are fuelled by renewable biogas to generate clean electricity. The company offers a range of fuel cell products, including stationary fuel cell power plants for electricity generation, hydrogen-based energy storage systems, and fuel cell solutions for electric mobility applications. Their technology focuses on reducing carbon emissions and providing reliable, efficient, and clean energy solutions. Fuel cell technology is considered a clean and efficient alternative to traditional energy sources, making it an attractive investment option for those interested in the renewable energy sector.		[[File:Fuelcellenergy-primary-logo-full-color-rgb.svg\|thumb\|355x355px]]
			FuelCell Energy Inc. founded in 1969 and headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut is an American energy company specialising in the design, manufacturing, operation, and maintenance of fuel cell power plants. Its proprietary fuel cell technology utilises carbonate fuel cells that are fuelled by renewable biogas to generate clean electricity.

			The company offers a range of fuel cell products, including stationary fuel cell power plants for electricity generation, hydrogen-based energy storage systems, and fuel cell solutions for electric mobility applications. Their technology focuses on reducing carbon emissions and providing reliable, efficient, and clean energy solutions. Fuel cell technology is considered a clean and efficient alternative to traditional energy sources, making it an attractive investment option for those interested in the renewable energy sector.

	The company targets utility companies, industrial companies, universities, municipal water treatment facilities, government facilities and other commercial entities as customers. It currently has over 50 U.S. patents and has installed over 50 megawatts of fuel cell systems worldwide.		The company targets utility companies, industrial companies, universities, municipal water treatment facilities, government facilities and other commercial entities as customers. It currently has over 50 U.S. patents and has installed over 50 megawatts of fuel cell systems worldwide.

	== Industry Outlook ==		== Industry Outlook ==
	The vast majority of hydrogen produced today is from the steam ~~methan~~ process - 95% in Europe (demaco-cryogenics.com/blog/steam-methane-reforming-to-green-hydrogen/). This process, while energy efficient, also produces carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide which is bad for the environment and thus defeats the purpose of the exercise.		The vast majority of hydrogen produced today is from the steam methane process - 95% in Europe (demaco-cryogenics.com/blog/steam-methane-reforming-to-green-hydrogen/). This process, while energy-efficient, also produces carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide which is bad for the environment and thus defeats the purpose of the exercise.

	In 2021 2.5% of final energy consumption came from hydrogen (www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2022/executive-summary). However, as the vast majority of hydrogen is abstracted using hydrocarbons, mostly natural gas, this figure is misleading.		In 2021 2.5% of final energy consumption came from hydrogen (www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2022/executive-summary). However, as the vast majority of hydrogen is abstracted using hydrocarbons, mostly natural gas, this figure is misleading.

>Samhulse1234: /* Main competitors */

2023-08-11T13:55:09Z

Main competitors

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:55, 11 August 2023
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	'''Linde'''		'''Linde'''

	* revenue in 2022 was 33,364 ~~million~~, up from 30,793 ~~million~~ in 2021		* revenue in 2022 was 33.364 billion, up from 30.793 billion in 2021
	* operating profit was ~~5369 million~~ in 2022, up from ~~4984 million~~ in 2021		* operating profit was 5.369 billion in 2022, up from 4.984 billion in 2021

>Samhulse1234: /* Company Overview */

2023-08-11T12:14:18Z

Company Overview

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 * 2021 136 TWH
 * 2022 289 TWH
 == Main competitors ==

>Samhulse1234: /* Traction of Hydrogen produced by Fuel Cell Energy */

2023-08-11T10:52:29Z

Traction of Hydrogen produced by Fuel Cell Energy

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:52, 11 August 2023
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	* 2022 operating capacity of 36.3 MW, percentage change from previus year: 6.8%. Ones in process of being made 26.8		* 2022 operating capacity of 36.3 MW, percentage change from previus year: 6.8%. Ones in process of being made 26.8

	The last ~~few~~ years ~~clearly saw a~~ reduced growth ~~rate~~.
			Fuel Cell energy have over the last 5 years led a greater transition to their solid oxide electrolysis via a ceramic membrane. This is why there is extremely strong growth in 2019 and 2020. The last two years have, however, fallen below the industry growth rate of 8.8% (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/hydrogen-generation-market). Furthermore, the reduced growth that started in 2021 was not explained or justified in the their accounts. It is thus likely growth in the next 10 years will be more or less in line with industry growth and the larger growth phase between 2018 to 2020 was due to the initial development of their fuel cell systems.

	== Revenue Analysis ==		== Revenue Analysis ==

>Samhulse1234: /* Revenue Analysis */

2023-08-11T10:41:46Z

Revenue Analysis

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:41, 11 August 2023
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	== Revenue Analysis ==		== Revenue Analysis ==
	Total Revenues / and total cost of revenue		'''Total Revenues / and total cost of revenue'''

	* 2018 89.4 million / 86.3 million		* 2018 89.4 million / 86.3 million

>Samhulse1234: /* Revenue Analysis */

2023-08-11T10:41:23Z

Revenue Analysis

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:41, 11 August 2023
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	== Revenue Analysis ==		== Revenue Analysis ==
	Total Revenues and total cost of revenue		Total Revenues / and total cost of revenue

	* 2018 89.4 million / 86.3 million		* 2018 89.4 million / 86.3 million