Novo Nordisk A/S - Revision history

185.44.76.187 at 04:29, 12 August 2023

2023-08-12T04:29:59Z

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>SaadYawar: Appendix - 3 financial statements

2023-08-11T23:41:47Z

Appendix - 3 financial statements

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>SaadYawar at 23:22, 11 August 2023

2023-08-11T23:22:31Z

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	== Summary Presentation ==		== Summary Presentation ==
	[[File:NVO presentation 2.mp4\|left\|thumb\|Summary]]		[[File:NVO presentation 2.mp4\|left\|thumb\|Summary - Presented by Saad Yawar & Jamie Ho (08/08/2023)]]

>SaadYawar: Summary video

2023-08-11T23:21:45Z

Summary video

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			== Summary Presentation ==
			[[File:NVO presentation 2.mp4\|left\|thumb\|Summary]]


	== <big>Idea</big> ==		== <big>Idea</big> ==
	Novo Nordisk A/S, a healthcare company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity care, and rare diseases (biopharmaceuticals). The Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides products in the areas of insulins, GLP-1 and related delivery systems, oral antidiabetic products, obesity, and other chronic diseases. The Biopharmaceuticals segment offers products in the areas of haemophilia, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company collaboration agreements with Gilead Sciences, Inc. Novo Nordisk A/S also has a research collaboration with Lumen Bioscience, Inc. to explore strategies for delivering oral biologics for cardiometabolic disease. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.<ref>https://www.novonordisk.com/about/our-heritage.html</ref>		Novo Nordisk A/S, a healthcare company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity care, and rare diseases (biopharmaceuticals). The Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides products in the areas of insulins, GLP-1 and related delivery systems, oral antidiabetic products, obesity, and other chronic diseases. The Biopharmaceuticals segment offers products in the areas of haemophilia, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company collaboration agreements with Gilead Sciences, Inc. Novo Nordisk A/S also has a research collaboration with Lumen Bioscience, Inc. to explore strategies for delivering oral biologics for cardiometabolic disease. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.<ref>https://www.novonordisk.com/about/our-heritage.html</ref>

185.44.76.187 at 13:59, 11 August 2023

2023-08-11T13:59:07Z

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	=== '''DCF Valuation:''' ===		=== '''DCF Valuation:''' ===
	The result of base case of the DCF valuation indicating the implied shared price comparing to the current price has a 7.47% increase margin, where the growth rate and the WACC is 10.40% and 6.41% respectively. The Beta is 0.29, which indicating that it is less correlated to the S&P market, which is a typical number for medical companies on medicine that is not focusing on technologies such as medical devices and robotics.		The result of base case of the DCF valuation indicating the implied shared price is 168.30, comparing to the current price, it has a 7.47% increase margin, where the growth rate and the WACC is 10.40% and 6.41% respectively. The Beta is 0.29, which indicating that it is less correlated to the S&P market, which is a typical number for medical companies on medicine that is not focusing on technologies such as medical devices and robotics.

	For the bull case and bear case, it has a 26.54% increase and -5.09% decrease respectively. In these 2 cases, a different approach has been applied by comparing the earnings using EBITDA and free cash flow equity. The 3-year EBITDA Growth Rate per share is 13.9, which is above the median of the range over the past 10 years of 13.2, and also 59% higher than other companies in the biotechnology industry. The 3-year revenue growth rate per share is 14.9, which is also higher than the median of the range over the past 10 years of 10.1, and it is 61.1% better than other companies in the Biotechnology industry. Furthermore, the 3-year Book Growth rate per share is 15.6, which is almost at the highest value of the range over the past 10 years of 18.4. Finally, the 3-year FCF Growth rate is 23.6 which is stronger than 73% of the companies in the Biotechnology industry.		For the bull case and bear case, it has a 26.54% increase and -5.09% decrease respectively. In these 2 cases, a different approach has been applied by comparing the earnings using EBITDA and free cash flow equity. The 3-year EBITDA Growth Rate per share is 13.9, which is above the median of the range over the past 10 years of 13.2, and also 59% higher than other companies in the biotechnology industry. The 3-year revenue growth rate per share is 14.9, which is also higher than the median of the range over the past 10 years of 10.1, and it is 61.1% better than other companies in the Biotechnology industry. Furthermore, the 3-year Book Growth rate per share is 15.6, which is almost at the highest value of the range over the past 10 years of 18.4. Finally, the 3-year FCF Growth rate is 23.6 which is stronger than 73% of the companies in the Biotechnology industry.

>SaadYawar: pictures

2023-08-10T10:52:01Z

pictures

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	* Ozempic: This is a once-weekly injection for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Ozempic is a GLP-1 agonist, a type of drug that helps to control blood sugar levels by mimicking the effects of the hormone glucagon-like peptide-1. Ozempic was approved by the FDA in 2017, and has since become one of Novo Nordisk's top-selling drugs.<ref>https://diatribe.org/fda-approves-ozempic-powerful-once-weekly-type-2-diabetes-medication</ref>		* Ozempic: This is a once-weekly injection for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Ozempic is a GLP-1 agonist, a type of drug that helps to control blood sugar levels by mimicking the effects of the hormone glucagon-like peptide-1. Ozempic was approved by the FDA in 2017, and has since become one of Novo Nordisk's top-selling drugs.<ref>https://diatribe.org/fda-approves-ozempic-powerful-once-weekly-type-2-diabetes-medication</ref>

	[[File:Ozempic.png\|center\|thumb\|~~495x495px~~]]		[[File:Ozempic.png\|center\|thumb\|412x412px]]

	* Rybelsus: This is a once-daily pill for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Rybelsus is also a GLP-1 agonist, and was approved by the FDA in 2019. Rybelsus is the first GLP-1 agonist that can be taken once daily, and has been shown to be effective in controlling blood sugar levels.<ref>https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/100641/first-oral-glp-1-treatment-type-2-diabetes-approved/</ref>		* Rybelsus: This is a once-daily pill for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Rybelsus is also a GLP-1 agonist, and was approved by the FDA in 2019. Rybelsus is the first GLP-1 agonist that can be taken once daily, and has been shown to be effective in controlling blood sugar levels.<ref>https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/100641/first-oral-glp-1-treatment-type-2-diabetes-approved/</ref>

	[[File:Rybelsus.png\|center\|thumb\|~~371x371px~~]]		[[File:Rybelsus.png\|center\|thumb\|315x315px]]

	* Wegovy: This is a once-weekly injection for the treatment of obesity. Wegovy is also a GLP-1 agonist, and was approved by the FDA in 2021. Wegovy is the first GLP-1 agonist that has been shown to be effective in helping people lose weight, and has been shown to be safe and well-tolerated.<ref>https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/13/weight-loss-jabs-to-be-sold-via-high-street-chemists</ref>		* Wegovy: This is a once-weekly injection for the treatment of obesity. Wegovy is also a GLP-1 agonist, and was approved by the FDA in 2021. Wegovy is the first GLP-1 agonist that has been shown to be effective in helping people lose weight, and has been shown to be safe and well-tolerated.<ref>https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/13/weight-loss-jabs-to-be-sold-via-high-street-chemists</ref>
			[[File:Wegovy picture.webp\|center\|thumb\|489x489px]]
	[[File:Wegovy.~~png~~\|center\|thumb\|~~490x490px~~]]
	Novo Nordisk is a leading global pharmaceutical company with a strong track record of innovation. The company is committed to finding new and innovative ways to treat diabetes, obesity, rare diseases, and growth hormone. Novo Nordisk is also committed to making its products more affordable and accessible to patients around the world.		Novo Nordisk is a leading global pharmaceutical company with a strong track record of innovation. The company is committed to finding new and innovative ways to treat diabetes, obesity, rare diseases, and growth hormone. Novo Nordisk is also committed to making its products more affordable and accessible to patients around the world.

>SaadYawar: /* Segments & Key Projects */

2023-08-10T10:48:06Z

Segments & Key Projects

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	'''Breakdown of Novo Nordisk's revenue by segment in 2022:''' <ref name=":1">https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/annual-report.html</ref>		'''Breakdown of Novo Nordisk's revenue by segment in 2022:''' <ref name=":1">https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/annual-report.html</ref>

	<u>Diabetes and Obesity care:</u>		[[File:Segment breakdown.png\|center\|thumb\|509x509px]]<u>Diabetes and Obesity care:</u>

	* Insulin: $139.5 billion (63%)		* Insulin: $139.5 billion (63%)
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	* Rare endocrine disorders: $5.5 billion (2%)		* Rare endocrine disorders: $5.5 billion (2%)
	* Hormone replacement therapy: $1.5 billion (1%)		* Hormone replacement therapy: $1.5 billion (1%)

	~~[[File:Segment breakdown.png\|center\|thumb\|509x509px]]~~
	Novo Nordisk's net profit in 2022 was DKK 55.5 billion (US$8.2 billion). The company's strong revenue growth in 2022 was driven by the continued growth of its diabetes products, particularly its GLP-1 agonists. Novo Nordisk also benefited from the launch of its new obesity drug, Wegovy.		Novo Nordisk's net profit in 2022 was DKK 55.5 billion (US$8.2 billion). The company's strong revenue growth in 2022 was driven by the continued growth of its diabetes products, particularly its GLP-1 agonists. Novo Nordisk also benefited from the launch of its new obesity drug, Wegovy.

>SaadYawar: References, charts, projects

2023-08-10T10:47:21Z

References, charts, projects

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>Jamieho1: /* Relative valuation and competitive analysis: */

2023-08-10T03:44:37Z

Relative valuation and competitive analysis:

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	# Base case: constant average of numbers in the past 5 years. The logic behind is that NVO is company focusing on medicine, which has a strong economic moat in the industry and a usually parking of money during a bear market according to the Dow's theory.		# Base case: constant average of numbers in the past 5 years. The logic behind is that NVO is company focusing on medicine, which has a strong economic moat in the industry and a usually parking of money during a bear market according to the Dow's theory.

	==~~= Relative valuation~~ and competitive analysis: ===		== Catalyst and competitive analysis: ==
	[[File:Chart-26.png\|thumb]]		[[File:Chart-26.png\|thumb]]
	The main competitors of NVO in the market includes: Wuxi biologics (HKG: 2269), Eli Lily (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merk Co (MRK), AstraZeneca (AZN), Pfizer (PFE).		The main competitors of NVO in the market includes: Wuxi biologics (HKG: 2269), Eli Lily (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merk Co (MRK), AstraZeneca (AZN), Pfizer (PFE).

>Jamieho1: /* DCF Valuation: */

2023-08-10T03:42:13Z

DCF Valuation:

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:42, 10 August 2023
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	=== Relative valuation and competitive analysis: ===		=== Relative valuation and competitive analysis: ===
			[[File:Chart-26.png\|thumb]]
	The main competitors of NVO in the market includes: Wuxi biologics (HKG: 2269), Eli Lily (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merk Co (MRK), AstraZeneca (AZN), Pfizer (PFE).		The main competitors of NVO in the market includes: Wuxi biologics (HKG: 2269), Eli Lily (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merk Co (MRK), AstraZeneca (AZN), Pfizer (PFE).
	~~[[File:Chart-26.png\|thumb]]~~
	[[File:Chart-27.png\|thumb]]		[[File:Chart-27.png\|thumb]]
	The PE value of NVO is 49.43, where the most related competitor Eli Lily (LLY) is 72.19, which is undervalued comparatively. In the recent update, the Eli Lily has beat the market expectation in the second-quarter earnings. Elil Lily saying that there is a surge in demand for Mounjaro, which they experienced delays in fulfilling the demand. This indicating that there is a huge increase in demand and so does the sales increase in the related drug. Therefore, the Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari upgraded shares of Eli Lilly to Buy from Hold and raised his price target from $430 to $615. He mentioned that NVO's product, weight-loss drug Wegovy in a trial, known as SELECT, has reduced the risk of heart attack and stroke in obese and overweight patients by 20%, exceeding expectations. These views from the market indicating more money will be entering the pharmaceutical industry and specifically the weight-loss drug. This news caused both LLY and NVO to rise over 15% in one day. On top of that, NVO has a lower PE value comparing to his industry and therefore a higher increase than its industry.		The PE value of NVO is 49.43, where the most related competitor Eli Lily (LLY) is 72.19, which is undervalued comparatively. In the recent update, the Eli Lily has beat the market expectation in the second-quarter earnings. Elil Lily saying that there is a surge in demand for Mounjaro, which they experienced delays in fulfilling the demand. This indicating that there is a huge increase in demand and so does the sales increase in the related drug. Therefore, the Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari upgraded shares of Eli Lilly to Buy from Hold and raised his price target from $430 to $615. He mentioned that NVO's product, weight-loss drug Wegovy in a trial, known as SELECT, has reduced the risk of heart attack and stroke in obese and overweight patients by 20%, exceeding expectations. These views from the market indicating more money will be entering the pharmaceutical industry and specifically the weight-loss drug. This news caused both LLY and NVO to rise over 15% in one day. On top of that, NVO has a lower PE value comparing to his industry and therefore a higher increase than its industry.
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	Last but not least, the difference in ROIC to WACC % remains positive in the past 10 years. Although there is a decrease since 2015, this is because of the market capital size of NVO has increased in the past 10 years, so this is reasonable. The current ROIC-WACC% is still 27.2%.[1]		Last but not least, the difference in ROIC to WACC % remains positive in the past 10 years. Although there is a decrease since 2015, this is because of the market capital size of NVO has increased in the past 10 years, so this is reasonable. The current ROIC-WACC% is still 27.2%.[1]
	[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-10 at 11.37.06.png\|thumb]]		[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-10 at 11.37.06.png\|thumb]]
	~~[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-10 at 11.37.51.png\|thumb]]~~		Comparing to its competitor Wuxi (HKG:2269), for macro analysis, the M1 to M2 value in the China market is a negative value, indicating that the money is not coming out to the market, lower buying power. Also, thePPI remain very low, much lower than the expectation, which is currently at -4.40. The PPI to CPI ratio has a negative value of -4.10. These all indicating that the US market is healthier than the China market, the money is likely to buy NVO comparatively.[2] [[File:Screenshot 2023-08-10 at 11.37.51.png\|thumb]]
	Comparing to its competitor Wuxi (HKG:2269), for macro analysis, the M1 to M2 value in the China market is a negative value, indicating that the money is not coming out to the market, lower buying power. Also, thePPI remain very low, much lower than the expectation, which is currently at -4.40. The PPI to CPI ratio has a negative value of -4.10. These all indicating that the US market is healthier than the China market, the money is likely to buy NVO comparatively.[2]

	== Reference ==		== Reference ==

	# Gurufocus: https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/NVO/summary		# Gurufocus: https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/NVO/summary
	# Macromicro: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/260/cn-china-m1-m2<nowiki/>~~__INDEX__~~		# Macromicro: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/260/cn-china-m1-m2<nowiki/>