Pantheon Resources Plc - Revision history

155.198.14.135: /* Sensitivity analysis */

2023-09-12T12:50:54Z

Sensitivity analysis

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:50, 12 September 2023
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	# The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value (the default figure is 46.37%);		# The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value (the default figure is 46.37%);
	# The price-to-book value ~~multiple~~ multiple (the default multiple 1.57x); and		# The price-to-book value multiple (the default multiple 1.57x); and
	# Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure (the default figure is $248,178,354, or £198,542,683 at the current exchange rate of $1.25).		# Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure (the default figure is $248,178,354, or £198,542,683 at the current exchange rate of $1.25).

155.198.14.135: /* What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? */

2023-09-12T12:46:28Z

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:46, 12 September 2023
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	\|The price-to-book value is really the only available commonly used value, so we suggest using that.		\|The price-to-book value is really the only available commonly used value, so we suggest using that.
	\|-		\|-
	\|In regards to the ~~Price~~-to-book value multiple, for the book value figure, which year to you want to use?		\|In regards to the price-to-book value multiple, for the book value figure, which year to you want to use?
	\|Year 1		\|Year 1
	\|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the book value figure, we suggest using Year 1, which is on 12th September 2024.		\|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the book value figure, we suggest using Year 1, which is on 12th September 2024.
	\|-		\|-
	\|In regards to the ~~PEG multiple~~, what multiple figure do you want to use?		\|In regards to the price-to-book value multipl, what multiple figure do you want to use?
	\|1.54x		\|1.54x
	\|Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.54x, which is in-line with the multiples of Pantheon Resources's peers (for details on the peers can be found in the table below).		\|Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.54x, which is in-line with the multiples of Pantheon Resources's peers (for details on the peers can be found in the table below).
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	\|9.6501		\|9.6501
	\|-		\|-
	~~\| colspan="3"~~ \|Mean (Including PANR LN)		\|Mean (Including PANR LN)
			\|
			\|
	\|254706082.7		\|254706082.7
	\|8.384		\|8.384
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	\|1.5358		\|1.5358
	\|-		\|-
	~~\| colspan="4"~~ \|Current Premium to Comps Mean		\|Current Premium to Comps Mean
			\|
			\|
			\|
	\| --		\| --
	\| --		\| --

155.198.14.135: /* Sensitivity analysis */

2023-09-12T12:35:59Z

Sensitivity analysis

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:35, 12 September 2023
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	The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):		The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

	# The price-to-book value multiple multiple (the default multiple 1.57x);		# The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value (the default figure is 46.37%);
	# Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure (the default figure is $248,178,354, or £198,542,683 at the current exchange rate of $1.25~~); and~~		# The price-to-book value multiple multiple (the default multiple 1.57x); and
	~~# The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value (the default figure is 46.37%~~).		# Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure (the default figure is $248,178,354, or £198,542,683 at the current exchange rate of $1.25).

	The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment is shown in the table below.		The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment is shown in the table below.
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	!Unchanged		!Unchanged
	!50% better		!50% better
			\|-
			\|The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value between one year ahead and the most recent value
			\|113%
			\|185%
			\|266%
	\|-		\|-
	\|The price-to-book value multiple		\|The price-to-book value multiple
	\|~~ccc~~%		\|42%
	\|~~ccc~~%		\|185%
	\|~~ccc%~~		\|327%
	\|-
	~~\|The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value between one year ahead and the most recent value~~
	~~\|ccc%~~
	~~\|ccc%~~
	~~\|ccc~~%
	\|-		\|-
	\|Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure		\|Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure
	\|		\|42%
	\|		\|185%
	\|		\|327%
	\|}		\|}

155.198.14.135: /* What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? */

2023-09-12T12:31:46Z

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:31, 12 September 2023
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	\|Which type of multiple do you want to use?		\|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
	\|Price-to-book value		\|Price-to-book value
	\|Mainly given the relatively low amount of fixed capital expenditure (as a proportion of revenue) of companies within the consultancy industry (for example, currently, Alpha's fixed capital expenditure as a proportion of revenue is around 0.5%), we suggest valuing the company using the price~~/earnings ratio. However, we feel that~~ to ~~take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers (and, therefore, the different growth stages of its peers), the most suitable valuation multiple to use~~ is the ~~price/earnings to (earnings) growth multiple (or the PEG multiple~~, ~~for short), rather than the price/earnings multiple. Another multiple which~~ we think it's worth looking at is the (sales) growth-adjusted EV/sales, mainly because the multiple takes into account the different leverage levels of the peers (whereas the PEG does not, at least not directly; one is able to argue that ~~the leverage levels are reflected indirectly in the earnings growth rates)~~.		\|The price-to-book value is really the only available commonly used value, so we suggest using that.
	\|-		\|-
	\|In regards to the Price-to-book value multiple, for the book value figure, which year to you want to use?		\|In regards to the Price-to-book value multiple, for the book value figure, which year to you want to use?
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	\|In regards to the PEG multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?		\|In regards to the PEG multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
	\|1.54x		\|1.54x
	\|Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.54x, which ~~we believe~~ is in-line with the multiples of ~~Alpha~~'s peers.		\|Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.54x, which is in-line with the multiples of Pantheon Resources's peers (for details on the peers can be found in the table below).
	\|-		\|-
	\|What is the estimated compound annual growth rate of the book value between one year from now and the most recent value?		\|What is the estimated compound annual growth rate of the book value between one year from now and the most recent value?
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	\|What's the current market capitalisation of the company?		\|What's the current market capitalisation of the company?
	\|£205.44 million		\|£205.44 million
	\|As at 12th September 2023, the ~~share price~~ of Pantheon Resources Plc is £205.44 million.		\|As at 12th September 2023, the market capitalisation of Pantheon Resources Plc is £205.44 million.
	\|-		\|-
	\|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?		\|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?

155.198.14.135 at 12:24, 12 September 2023

2023-09-12T12:24:40Z

Show changes

Manos: /* Field Development and Infrastructure */

2023-09-11T11:27:15Z

Field Development and Infrastructure

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:27, 11 September 2023
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	\|2,014.2		\|2,014.2
	\|}		\|}

			[[File:Kodiak Project Horizon (illustrative type log).jpg\|Kodiak Project Horizon (illustrative type log)]]

			[[File:Location of Kodiak and Ahpun Projects.jpg\|Location of Kodiak and Ahpun Projects]]

	=== Field Development and Infrastructure ===		=== Field Development and Infrastructure ===

95.149.161.203 at 14:24, 8 September 2023

2023-09-08T14:24:14Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:24, 8 September 2023
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	Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more/most accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.5 and 1.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.		Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more/most accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.5 and 1.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.

	The key risks can be found below. For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to the ~~lease obligations~~.		The key risks can be found below. For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to the ability to adequately source sufficient funding to meet the company’s working capital requirements (i.e. liquidity risk).

			# '''Liquidity Risk:''' The primary liquidity risk is the ability to adequately source sufficient funding to meet the company’s working capital requirements. Funding availability, and hence risk, within the capital markets remains volatile.<ref name=":3" />
			# '''Oil & Gas Price Risk:''' Future oil and gas sales revenues are subject to the volatility of the underlying commodity prices throughout the year. Over the past year the energy sector has been impacted by volatility in commodity prices, which may continue to impact the group going forward.<ref name=":3" />
			# '''Currency Risk:''' Most capital expenditures for the year (and future years), as well as possible future operational revenues from oil sales were or will be denominated in US dollars. The group keeps the majority of its cash resources denominated in US dollars to minimise volatility and foreign currency risk.<ref name=":3" />
			# '''Credit Risk:''' The group’s credit risk is primarily attributable to its cash balances. The credit risk on liquid funds is limited because the third parties are large banks with a minimum investment grade credit rating. The group’s total credit risk amounts to the total of other receivables and cash and cash equivalents.<ref name=":3" />
	# '''Lease Obligations:''' The group leases properties for oil and gas exploration, requiring annual payments. Any default can lead to lease termination, which would adversely impact business and financial operations. Pantheon has actively participated in annual lease sales and secured 40,000 leases in November 2022. These leases have a 10-year life and favorable terms.<ref name=":3" />		# '''Lease Obligations:''' The group leases properties for oil and gas exploration, requiring annual payments. Any default can lead to lease termination, which would adversely impact business and financial operations. Pantheon has actively participated in annual lease sales and secured 40,000 leases in November 2022. These leases have a 10-year life and favorable terms.<ref name=":3" />
	# '''Lease Renewal:''' Leases may be terminated if the group fails to meet specific obligations, like timely exploration. Not renewing these leases can significantly harm the business. However, the group has obtained unitisation for certain projects to possibly extend their initial lease term.<ref name=":3" />		# '''Lease Renewal:''' Leases may be terminated if the group fails to meet specific obligations, like timely exploration. Not renewing these leases can significantly harm the business. However, the group has obtained unitisation for certain projects to possibly extend their initial lease term.<ref name=":3" />

95.149.161.203: /* Most recent */

2023-09-08T13:53:49Z

Most recent

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:53, 8 September 2023
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	On 15th June 2023, to address its obligations for the senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2026, the company settled a quarterly principal of US$2.45 million and interest of US$367,500 by issuing 15,172,320 new Ordinary Shares. This arrangement reduces the Convertible Bond's outstanding principal to US$34.30 million.<ref>https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x5zjy8x</ref>		On 15th June 2023, to address its obligations for the senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2026, the company settled a quarterly principal of US$2.45 million and interest of US$367,500 by issuing 15,172,320 new Ordinary Shares. This arrangement reduces the Convertible Bond's outstanding principal to US$34.30 million.<ref>https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x5zjy8x</ref>

			On 7th September 2023, Pantheon Resources plc announced a private placement of 11.9 million new shares at £0.1878 each, raising $2.793 million from IPGL Limited. The amount will be used to cover a bond repayment, making the placement cash-neutral for Pantheon. The new shares, constituting 1.3% of the pre-placement share capital, will be issued around 29 September 2023.<ref name=":12">https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/pantheon-resources--panr/private-placement/7740310</ref>

			Accordingly, since the company's interim results, the company has raised raise a total of $27.243 million.

	=== Interim results ===		=== Interim results ===
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	=== Capital structure ===		=== Capital structure ===
	The Company has ~~907~~,~~206~~,~~399~~ ordinary fully paid shares in issue.<ref name=":5">https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/capital-structure</ref>		The Company has 919,111,769 ordinary fully paid shares in issue.<ref name=":12" /> The number of ordinary shares not in public hands amounts to 6,956,691<ref name=":5">https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/capital-structure</ref>, equivalent to 0.76% of the issued allotted and fully paid ordinary shares.<ref>The calculation here is 6,956,691 divided by 919,111,769.</ref>

	~~The number of ordinary shares not in public hands amounts to 6~~,~~956,691~~ equivalent to 0.9% of the issued allotted and fully paid ordinary shares.<ref ~~name=":5" /~~>

	~~This~~ is ~~correct as of 21 June 2023~~.

	==== Share options ====		==== Share options ====
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"

95.149.161.160: /* Projects */

2023-09-05T16:52:19Z

Projects

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:52, 5 September 2023
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	=== Most recent ===		=== Most recent ===
			After the interim results' period end, the company raised approximately $22 million, net of fees, on 16th May 2023.<ref>https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/w03k7zw</ref>

			On 15th June 2023, to address its obligations for the senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2026, the company settled a quarterly principal of US$2.45 million and interest of US$367,500 by issuing 15,172,320 new Ordinary Shares. This arrangement reduces the Convertible Bond's outstanding principal to US$34.30 million.<ref>https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x5zjy8x</ref>

			=== Interim results ===

	==== Profit and loss ====		==== Profit and loss ====

95.149.161.160: /* Theta West */

2023-09-05T15:55:12Z

Theta West

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:55, 5 September 2023
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	The data from Talitha #A has increased confidence in the commercial viability of these zones.<ref name=":1" /> Pantheon remains encouraged by the analysis and sees potential for further exploration and drilling.<ref name=":1" /> The discovery augments the prospectivity of adjacent potential oil-bearing structures, which will be explored in future programs.<ref name=":1" />		The data from Talitha #A has increased confidence in the commercial viability of these zones.<ref name=":1" /> Pantheon remains encouraged by the analysis and sees potential for further exploration and drilling.<ref name=":1" /> The discovery augments the prospectivity of adjacent potential oil-bearing structures, which will be explored in future programs.<ref name=":1" />

	==~~== Theta West ==~~==		== Kodiak ==
	~~Pantheon has concluded drilling at~~ Theta West#1, ~~confirming~~ a discovery of light sweet crude oil.<ref name=":2">https://www.pantheonresources.com/about-pantheon/projects/theta-west</ref> This discovery is now set for extensive production testing.<ref name=":2" /> Theta West stands as Pantheon’s most significant appraisal project.~~<ref name=":2" />~~ The ~~company projects~~ its potential to rival the immense hydrocarbon pore volume plays outside the renowned Prudhoe Bay Oilfield in the ANS.~~<ref name=":2" /> This geological configuration, given its success and volume~~, can be likened to the deepwater offshore regions in the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and recent discoveries off Guyana's coast.<ref name=":2" /~~> In essence, Theta West is a giant Basin Floor Fan with the potential to hold multibillion barrels of oil~~.<ref ~~name=":2" /~~>		The Kodiak project, previously known as Theta West, is a significant appraisal project for Pantheon Resources. The project has garnered attention due to its potential to rival the immense hydrocarbon pore volume plays outside the renowned Prudhoe Bay Oilfield in the Alaska North Slope (ANS). Geologically, the Kodiak field can be likened to the deepwater offshore regions in the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and recent discoveries off Guyana's coast.<ref name=":2">https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/rmvz29r</ref>

	~~Years ago~~, ~~Pantheon identified this vast geological opportunity~~ and ~~utilised its unique 3D seismic and analytical methodologies to secure a strong position in~~ the ~~Theta West play~~.<ref name=":2" /> ~~This was strategically done before drilling Talitha #A in 2021.<ref name~~=":2" /> ~~The Talitha #A drilling confirmed the presence of oil in the Theta West structure~~. ~~A follow~~-~~up drilling at Theta West #1 took place 10~~.~~5 miles from Talitha~~, ~~in a geologically superior position~~.~~<ref name=":~~2~~" /> To date~~, ~~three wells — Pipeline State #1~~, ~~Talitha #1~~, ~~and Theta West #1 — have successfully tapped into the Basin Floor Fan (BFF) complex~~.~~<ref name=":~~2~~" />~~		=== Independent Expert Report (IER) Findings ===
			An Independent Expert Report (IER) by Netherland, Sewell & Associates (NSAI) on the Kodiak project has provided a contingent resource estimate. The 2C (best estimate) for the Kodiak field stands at a staggering 962.5 million barrels of marketable liquids. This comprises both oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The NGLs are of significant value as they can be blended with the oil, yielding approximately 90% of the Alaska North Slope (ANS) price per barrel.<ref name=":2" />
			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|+Gross 100% Working Interest Contingent Resources
			!Resource Category
			!Oil (million bbls)
			!NGLs (million bbls)
			!Residual Gas (BCF)
			!Total Marketable Liquids<ref>Pantheon addition of Oil & NGLs.</ref> (million bbls)
			\|-
			\|Low Estimate (1C)
			\|145.4
			\|292.4
			\|2,151.7
			\|437.8
			\|-
			\|Best Estimate (2C)
			\|314.6
			\|647.9
			\|4,465.2
			\|962.5
			\|-
			\|High Estimate (3C)
			\|647.8
			\|1,366.4
			\|8,822.7
			\|2,014.2
			\|}

	The ~~latest Theta West #1 drilling reached a depth~~ of 8,~~450 feet~~, ~~navigating through the Upper and Lower Basin Floor Fan target layers of Brookian age~~.~~<ref name=":2" />~~ The ~~drilling revealed approximately 1,160 gross feet of oil reservoir across these~~ horizons.~~<ref name=":2" /> Preliminary data indicates this reservoir~~'s ~~quality surpasses that~~ of the ~~downdip Talitha #A, with high-quality oil found throughout~~.<ref name=":2" />		=== Field Development and Infrastructure ===
			The Kodiak project spans an area of 126,000 acres, which includes recently awarded additional acreage. The field is defined by the hydrocarbon bearing horizons contained within the large basin floor fan system. This system stretches from the Hue Shale top seal to the underlying HRZ shale. The field's vastness and potential make it one of the largest basin floor fan systems discovered onshore in recent decades.<ref name=":2" />

	~~Key depths recorded are~~:		Pantheon's proprietary 3D seismic data and three wells (Pipeline State 1, Talitha-A, and Theta West-1) have confirmed the field's potential. The company plans to further develop the Kodiak project, focusing on the recently acquired "chimney acreage" and the delineation provided by the seismic data.<ref name=":2" />

	* UBFF: 6,~~800~~ - 7,~~000 ft<ref name=":2" />~~		=== Appraisal and Future Plans ===
	* LBFF: 7,~~450 - 8~~,~~410 ft~~<ref name=":2" />		Pantheon intends to drill the next Kodiak appraisal well in the recently acquired leases, northwest of Theta West-1. This drilling aims to encounter a reservoir section with improved reservoir characteristics, potentially yielding higher flow rates and hydrocarbon recovery rates. The company's detailed geological model, which takes into account data from nearby producing fields, supports this approach.<ref name=":2" />

	~~These depths exceed previous estimates~~, and ~~due to external factors such as extreme cold, the company had to rely on Logging While Drilling (LWD) operations~~.~~<ref name=":2" /> However, this yielded invaluable~~ data~~, hinting at hydrocarbon presence higher up from the Talitha #A well~~.<ref name=":2" />		To address the contingencies highlighted in NSAI's evaluation, Pantheon plans to cut full cores and acquire a comprehensive suite of wireline logs and fluid samples in future appraisal wells. This granular data could potentially lead to future increases in recoverable resource estimates.<ref name=":2" />

	~~AHS/Baker Hughes, the company's partners, have verified the presence of light oil in the UBFF and LBFF's top section, aligning with the LWD data.<ref name~~=~~":2" />~~ The ~~full analysis of LBFF's lower section is still underway.<ref name=":2" /> Initial estimates pegged Theta West #A's potential at 12~~.1 billion barrels of ~~oil, with a most likely~~ recoverable ~~amount of 1.41 billion barrels on Pantheon's land.<ref name=":2" /> This figure will be re-evaluated after thorough testing and analysis.<ref name=":2" />~~		=== Conclusion ===
			The Kodiak project represents a transformative opportunity for Pantheon Resources. With nearly one billion barrels of recoverable liquids, the project's potential is immense. The close proximity to existing infrastructure, combined with the vast resource base, positions Pantheon advantageously for future growth and development. The forthcoming appraisal activities and the company's strategic approach to the Kodiak field further underscore its potential as a world-class project in a prime location.<ref name=":2" />
	~~Historically~~, the ~~Theta West BFF was also successfully drilled in the 1988 Pipeline State #1 well.<ref name=":2" /> More insights were obtained from the Talitha #A well, where the LBFF~~'s ~~substantial thickness was established.<ref name=":2" /> Subsequent testing yielded high-quality oil averaging 73 barrels per day over three days~~.~~<ref name=":2" />~~

	The ~~recent Theta West #1 drilling confirmed expectations of a thicker reservoir at the crest~~, with ~~increased porosity and permeability.<ref name=":2" /> The site’s shallower depth offers a cost-effective drilling prospect for such a~~ vast resource.~~<ref name=":2" />~~ The ~~entire Theta West project spans an impressive 100,000 acres under Pantheon~~'s ~~control, representing a significant opportunity for~~ the ~~company.<ref name=":2" /> Pantheon management considers Theta West~~ as a ~~potentially~~ world-class project in a prime location.~~<ref name=":2" />~~

	In broader geological terms, the Theta West BFF is a segment of the Brookian deepwater fan systems.<ref name=":2" /> This includes the Slope Fan system and is situated between the Shelf Margin Deltaic and the Kuparuk Formation in terms of depth.<ref name=":2" /> Both the Talitha #A and Pipeline State #1 wells confirmed these regions as oil-bearing.<ref name=":2" /> Initially thought to be distinct fan systems, recent analysis suggests they might be part of an expansive continuous section, possibly forming a “super trap.”<ref name=":2" />

	=== Strategy ===		=== Strategy ===