Peel Hunt - Revision history

109.180.50.226: /* What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts? */

2024-01-07T15:16:42Z

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:16, 7 January 2024
Line 5,598:		Line 5,598:
	\|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Peel Hunt is around 0.50%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 7th November 2023, Peel Hunt's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.00068%.		\|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Peel Hunt is around 0.50%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 7th November 2023, Peel Hunt's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.00068%.
	\|-		\|-
	\|Which ~~distribution~~ function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?		\|Which function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?
	\|~~Gaussian~~		\|Logistic
	\|Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the ~~Gaussian distribution~~ function (i.e. the revenue distribution is ~~bell~~ shaped)<ref>~~http~~://~~escml~~.~~umd~~.~~edu~~/~~Papers~~/~~ObsCPMT~~.~~pdf~~</ref>, so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.		\|Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the logistic growth function (i.e. the revenue distribution is S-shaped)<ref>https://decisionanalyticsjournal.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/2193-8636-1-2</ref>, so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
	\|-		\|-
	\|What's the estimated ~~standard deviation~~ of company revenue?		\|What's the estimated logistic growth rate of company revenue?
	\| 5 ~~years~~		\| 5%
	\|Another way of asking this question is this way: ~~within how many years either side~~ of the ~~mean does 68% of~~ revenue ~~occur~~? Based on Peel Hunt's current estimated revenue amount (i.e. ~~$2.7~~ million) and Peel Hunt's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Peel Hunt's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. ~~introduction~~ stage), the Stockhub users suggest using ~~five years (i.e. 68~~% ~~of all sales happen within five years either side of the mean year)~~, so that's what's used here.		\|Another way of asking this question is this way: what is the projected rate of growth for the company's revenue following a logistic model? Based on Peel Hunt's current estimated revenue amount (i.e. £82 million) and Peel Hunt's estimated lifespan (i.e. 100 years) and Peel Hunt's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. growth stage), the Stockhub users suggest using 5% annual logistic growth rate, so that's what's used here.
	\|-		\|-
	\| colspan="3" \|'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stages</div>'''		\| colspan="3" \|'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stages</div>'''

109.180.50.226: /* Valuation */

2024-01-06T22:48:35Z

Valuation

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:48, 6 January 2024
Line 5,776:		Line 5,776:
	# General risks of investing in shares traded on AIM.<ref name=":1" />		# General risks of investing in shares traded on AIM.<ref name=":1" />
	# Regulatory approvals are required to increase a shareholding in the company above certain percentage thresholds of its capital.<ref name=":1" />		# Regulatory approvals are required to increase a shareholding in the company above certain percentage thresholds of its capital.<ref name=":1" />
	# Management and Governance: Less than half of Peel Hunt's directors are independent, and there's a relatively inexperienced board with an average tenure of only 2.2 years. Additionally, CEO Steven Fine's compensation has been a point of discussion, being above average for companies of similar size in the UK market.
	# Business Model and Strategy: Peel Hunt's unique business model includes serving retail investors through intermediaries, which diversifies its business and reduces exposure to the capital markets cycle.

	== Valuation ==		== Valuation ==

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T19:25:46Z

Financials

@@ Line 283: / Line 283: @@
 	      "name": "table",
 	      "values": [
              {"year": 2009,"revenue": 66768},
 	        {"year": 2011,"revenue": 32005},

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T19:17:01Z

Financials

Show changes

140.228.58.214: /* What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts? */

2024-01-06T16:08:24Z

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:08, 6 January 2024
Line 5,496:		Line 5,496:
	\|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?		\|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?
	\|$400,000,000,000		\|$400,000,000,000
	\|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global ~~HR tech~~ market, and based on a number of assumptions<ref group="Note" name="Note01" />, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (~~7th November 2023~~), in terms of revenue, is $400 billion.		\|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global investment banking market, and based on a number of assumptions<ref group="Note" name="Note01" />, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th January 2024), in terms of revenue, is $400 billion.
	\|-		\|-
	\|What is the estimated company lifespan?		\|What is the estimated company lifespan?
	\|50 years		\|50 years
	\|Currently, Peel Hunt employs around 77, making the company a ~~small~~ organisation (less than 10,000 employees). That said, given the company's mission, we expect the company to grow to a large organisation, and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.<ref>Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.</ref>		\|Currently, Peel Hunt employs around 300, making the company a medium organisation (less than 10,000 employees). That said, given the company's mission, we expect the company to grow to a large organisation, and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.<ref>Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.</ref>
	\|-		\|-
	\|What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company?		\|What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company?
	\|3%		\|3%
	\|Research shows that the growth rate of the global ~~HR tech~~ market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)<ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate</ref>.		\|Research shows that the growth rate of the global investment banking market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)<ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate</ref>.
	\|-		\|-
	\|What's the estimated company peak market share?		\|What's the estimated company peak market share?

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T15:48:39Z

Financials

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:48, 6 January 2024
Line 302:		Line 302:
	"name": "annotation",		"name": "annotation",
	"values": [		"values": [
	{"start": ~~2009~~,"end": 2023,"text": "Past revenues"},		{"start": 1990,"end": 2023,"text": "Past revenues"},
	{"start": 2023,"end": 2060,"text": "Expected future revenues"}		{"start": 2023,"end": 2060,"text": "Expected future revenues"}
	]		]

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T15:46:19Z

Financials

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:46, 6 January 2024
Line 302:		Line 302:
	"name": "annotation",		"name": "annotation",
	"values": [		"values": [
	{"start": ~~2011~~,"end": 2023,"text": "Past revenues"},		{"start": 2009,"end": 2023,"text": "Past revenues"},
	{"start": 2023,"end": 2060,"text": "Expected future revenues"}		{"start": 2023,"end": 2060,"text": "Expected future revenues"}
	]		]

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T15:45:19Z

Financials

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:45, 6 January 2024
Line 282:		Line 282:
	{		{
	"name": "table",		"name": "table",
	"values": [		"values": [
	{"year": 2011,"revenue": ~~9510~~},		{"year": 2009,"revenue": 66768},
			{"year": 2011,"revenue": 32005},
	{"year": 2012,"revenue": 39606},		{"year": 2012,"revenue": 39606},
	{"year": 2013,"revenue": 32189},		{"year": 2013,"revenue": 32189},

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T15:43:55Z

Financials

Show changes

140.228.58.214: /* Financials */

2024-01-06T14:14:49Z

Financials

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:14, 6 January 2024
Line 272:		Line 272:
	== Financials ==		== Financials ==

	The company was incorporated on 11th August ~~2011~~.<ref>https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/OC357088</ref>		The company was incorporated on 11th August 2010.<ref>https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/OC357088</ref>

	<graph>		<graph>