Rocket Lab - Revision history

95.149.241.133 at 15:47, 20 August 2022

2022-08-20T15:47:13Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:47, 20 August 2022
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	[[Category:Thesis]]		[[Category:Thesis]]
	[[Category:Equities]]		[[Category:Equities]]

			__INDEX__

>Louis at 16:26, 22 July 2022

2022-07-22T16:26:08Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:26, 22 July 2022
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	== Notes ==		== Notes ==
	<references />		<references />
			[[Category:Thesis]]
			[[Category:Equities]]

172.18.0.2: /* Summary */

2022-06-16T14:46:15Z

Summary

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:46, 16 June 2022
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	== Summary ==		== Summary ==
	Deutsche Bank regards Rocket Lab as the highest quality space asset to enter the public market so far, having established itself as a clear leader in small rocket launch and having garnered strong momentum in satellite buses and related components, enabling access to space in multiple ways. Looking forward, the company will certainly need to execute across several fronts especially development of its larger Neutron rocket, which is slated to fly in 2024. Deutsche Bank thinks management generally guided out-years conservatively, leaving room to beat in the mid-term as backlog rolls on and the pipeline grows rapidly~~. However, Deutsche Bank anticipates share price volatility in the very near term as the S-1 PIPE registration should occur by 9/22~~.		Deutsche Bank regards Rocket Lab as the highest quality space asset to enter the public market so far, having established itself as a clear leader in small rocket launch and having garnered strong momentum in satellite buses and related components, enabling access to space in multiple ways. Looking forward, the company will certainly need to execute across several fronts especially development of its larger Neutron rocket, which is slated to fly in 2024. Deutsche Bank thinks management generally guided out-years conservatively, leaving room to beat in the mid-term as backlog rolls on and the pipeline grows rapidly.

	More broadly, Deutsche Bank continues to be very bullish about the prospects for the Space sector. While the "space" industry has existed for many decades, public interest diminished toward the latter part of 20th century and entrepreneurs mostly avoided the sector due to high barriers to entry, regulation, and limited deployment opportunities. However, in recent years, Deutsche Bank believes the emergence of a new "Space Race", both between industry titans (Musk vs. Bezos vs. Branson) and nations (the US vs. China), ensures that this will likely be the next frontier for growth investment, and progress should accelerate dramatically in the next 5-10 years. Unique to space, Deutsche Bank believes it is becoming evident to society that for human civilization to truly progress, we must explore the cosmos (<600 people have been to space), and the upcoming innovation will revolve around developing business models to support this endeavour. In the coming years, Deutsche Bank could envision multiple “space hype cycles” where valuations soar, but Deutsche Bank reminds investors that the path forward will likely be volatile.		More broadly, Deutsche Bank continues to be very bullish about the prospects for the Space sector. While the "space" industry has existed for many decades, public interest diminished toward the latter part of 20th century and entrepreneurs mostly avoided the sector due to high barriers to entry, regulation, and limited deployment opportunities. However, in recent years, Deutsche Bank believes the emergence of a new "Space Race", both between industry titans (Musk vs. Bezos vs. Branson) and nations (the US vs. China), ensures that this will likely be the next frontier for growth investment, and progress should accelerate dramatically in the next 5-10 years. Unique to space, Deutsche Bank believes it is becoming evident to society that for human civilization to truly progress, we must explore the cosmos (<600 people have been to space), and the upcoming innovation will revolve around developing business models to support this endeavour. In the coming years, Deutsche Bank could envision multiple “space hype cycles” where valuations soar, but Deutsche Bank reminds investors that the path forward will likely be volatile.

>Deutsche: /* Space systems gaining fast traction */

2022-06-16T14:09:15Z

Space systems gaining fast traction

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:09, 16 June 2022
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	[[File:Long Beach HQ.png]]		[[File:Long Beach HQ.png]]


	'''Figure 19: Neutron designed to carry more and be an alternative to Falcon 9'''<ref>Source : Rocket Lab.</ref>		'''Figure 19: Neutron designed to carry more and be an alternative to Falcon 9'''<ref>Source : Rocket Lab.</ref>
	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0003.jpg\|none\|thumb]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0003.jpg\|none\|thumb]]
	~~'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''~~

	'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''		'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''
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	Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, Rocket Lab can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.		Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, Rocket Lab can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.

	'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg\|600px]]		'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>

			[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg\|600px]]

	'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''		'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''

>Deutsche: /* Space systems gaining fast traction */

2022-06-16T14:06:43Z

Space systems gaining fast traction

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:06, 16 June 2022
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	Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, Rocket Lab can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.		Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, Rocket Lab can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.

	'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg]]		'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg\|600px]]

	'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''		'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''

>Deutsche at 13:42, 16 June 2022

2022-06-16T13:42:37Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:42, 16 June 2022
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	[[File:~~20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB~~ Rocket Lab~~- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 05 Image 0001~~.jpg\|thumb]]		[[File:Rocket Lab logo.jpg\|thumb]]

	The Gatekeepers of Space		The Gatekeepers of Space

>Deutsche: /* Space systems gaining fast traction */

2022-06-16T13:36:50Z

Space systems gaining fast traction

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:36, 16 June 2022
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			[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 05 Image 0001.jpg\|thumb]]

	The Gatekeepers of Space		The Gatekeepers of Space

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	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 13 Image 0001.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 13 Image 0001.jpg]]



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	In respect to production, Rocket Lab has focused on vertical integration (~90% inhouse), essentially controlling the process from raw material to orbit across 3 global sites. In Auckland, the company houses its launch vehicle R&D and manufacturing facilities along with its propulsion test sites (i.e., place to test-fire engines). Rocket Lab can assemble composite tanks, fairings, electrical harnesses, kick stages and much more here. Moreover, Mission Control Center for Electron is based here along with workstations for payload processing. Long Beach is home to engine and avionics manufacturing, utilizing specialized automated equipment and 3D printing. Rocket Lab is also expanding space systems manufacturing capabilities at this location, supporting Sinclair's existing footprint in Toronto.		In respect to production, Rocket Lab has focused on vertical integration (~90% inhouse), essentially controlling the process from raw material to orbit across 3 global sites. In Auckland, the company houses its launch vehicle R&D and manufacturing facilities along with its propulsion test sites (i.e., place to test-fire engines). Rocket Lab can assemble composite tanks, fairings, electrical harnesses, kick stages and much more here. Moreover, Mission Control Center for Electron is based here along with workstations for payload processing. Long Beach is home to engine and avionics manufacturing, utilizing specialized automated equipment and 3D printing. Rocket Lab is also expanding space systems manufacturing capabilities at this location, supporting Sinclair's existing footprint in Toronto.

	'''Figure 17: Auckland facilities<ref name=":0" />'''		'''Figure 17: Auckland facilities<ref name=":0" />'''[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0001.jpg]]

	~~[[File~~:~~20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0001.jpg]]~~		'''Figure 18: Long Beach HQ<ref name=":0" />'''

			[[File:Long Beach HQ.png]]

	~~'''Figure 18: Long Beach HQ<ref name=":0" />'''~~

	~~[[File:Long Beach HQ.png]]~~'''Figure 19: Neutron designed to carry more and be an alternative to Falcon 9'''<ref>Source : Rocket Lab.</ref>		'''Figure 19: Neutron designed to carry more and be an alternative to Falcon 9'''<ref>Source : Rocket Lab.</ref>
	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0003.jpg\|none\|thumb]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0003.jpg\|none\|thumb]]
			'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''

	'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''		'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''
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	* '''Batteries''' include both the high-capacity, high-voltage batteries used to power the pumps in the Rutherford rocket engine used by Electron and other batteries used for small spacecraft.		* '''Batteries''' include both the high-capacity, high-voltage batteries used to power the pumps in the Rutherford rocket engine used by Electron and other batteries used for small spacecraft.

	Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, ~~RLKB~~ can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.		Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, Rocket Lab can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.

	~~'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>~~

	~~[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg]]~~


			'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg]]

	'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''		'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''

>Deutsche: /* Notes */

2022-06-16T13:32:54Z

Notes

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:32, 16 June 2022
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	The rocket will be reusable (first stage) and have propulsive landing capabilities (i.e., launch and then come back to land on an ocean platform). While building a larger rocket will take time ($200m development program, maiden voyage in 2024), Rocket Lab anticipates leveraging existing know-how to reduce costs (expertise in avionics, software, communications, GNC, infrastructure). Operationally, Neutron will lift off from Rocket Lab's other site in Wallops Island, Virginia (Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport or Launch Complex 2). The launch pad and integration/control facility have already been built, but delays involving the Flight Safety System software certification with NASA have caused delays with December being the most realistic launch window now. Collectively, Rocket Lab will have potentially 132 launch slots annually from its sites (120 in LC1 across 2 pads, 12 in LC2 with potential to expand).		The rocket will be reusable (first stage) and have propulsive landing capabilities (i.e., launch and then come back to land on an ocean platform). While building a larger rocket will take time ($200m development program, maiden voyage in 2024), Rocket Lab anticipates leveraging existing know-how to reduce costs (expertise in avionics, software, communications, GNC, infrastructure). Operationally, Neutron will lift off from Rocket Lab's other site in Wallops Island, Virginia (Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport or Launch Complex 2). The launch pad and integration/control facility have already been built, but delays involving the Flight Safety System software certification with NASA have caused delays with December being the most realistic launch window now. Collectively, Rocket Lab will have potentially 132 launch slots annually from its sites (120 in LC1 across 2 pads, 12 in LC2 with potential to expand).

	'''Figure 15: Mahia, New Zealand (LC1)'''<ref~~>Source~~ : ~~Company reports.<~~/~~ref~~>		'''Figure 15: Mahia, New Zealand (LC1)'''<ref name=":0" />

	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 13 Image 0001.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 13 Image 0001.jpg]]


	'''Figure 16: Wallops, Virginia (LC2)~~'''~~<ref~~>Source~~ : ~~Company reports.<~~/~~ref~~>		'''Figure 16: Wallops, Virginia (LC2)<ref name=":0" />'''

	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 13 Image 0002.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 13 Image 0002.jpg]]
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	In respect to production, Rocket Lab has focused on vertical integration (~90% inhouse), essentially controlling the process from raw material to orbit across 3 global sites. In Auckland, the company houses its launch vehicle R&D and manufacturing facilities along with its propulsion test sites (i.e., place to test-fire engines). Rocket Lab can assemble composite tanks, fairings, electrical harnesses, kick stages and much more here. Moreover, Mission Control Center for Electron is based here along with workstations for payload processing. Long Beach is home to engine and avionics manufacturing, utilizing specialized automated equipment and 3D printing. Rocket Lab is also expanding space systems manufacturing capabilities at this location, supporting Sinclair's existing footprint in Toronto.		In respect to production, Rocket Lab has focused on vertical integration (~90% inhouse), essentially controlling the process from raw material to orbit across 3 global sites. In Auckland, the company houses its launch vehicle R&D and manufacturing facilities along with its propulsion test sites (i.e., place to test-fire engines). Rocket Lab can assemble composite tanks, fairings, electrical harnesses, kick stages and much more here. Moreover, Mission Control Center for Electron is based here along with workstations for payload processing. Long Beach is home to engine and avionics manufacturing, utilizing specialized automated equipment and 3D printing. Rocket Lab is also expanding space systems manufacturing capabilities at this location, supporting Sinclair's existing footprint in Toronto.

	'''Figure 17: Auckland facilities~~'''~~<ref~~>Source~~ : ~~Company reports.<~~/~~ref~~>		'''Figure 17: Auckland facilities<ref name=":0" />'''

	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0001.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0001.jpg]]


	'''Figure 18: Long Beach HQ~~'''~~<ref~~>Source~~ : ~~Company reports.<~~/~~ref~~>		'''Figure 18: Long Beach HQ<ref name=":0" />'''

	[[File:Long Beach HQ.png]]'''Figure 19: Neutron designed to carry more and be an alternative to Falcon 9'''<ref>Source : Rocket Lab.</ref>		[[File:Long Beach HQ.png]]'''Figure 19: Neutron designed to carry more and be an alternative to Falcon 9'''<ref>Source : Rocket Lab.</ref>
	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0003.jpg\|none\|thumb]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 14 Image 0003.jpg\|none\|thumb]]

	'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities~~'''~~<ref~~>Source~~ : ~~Company reports.<~~/~~ref~~>		'''Figure 20: Global locations and capabilities<ref name=":0" />'''

	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 15 Image 0001.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 15 Image 0001.jpg]]
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	Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, RLKB can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.		Rocket Lab also conducts space systems engineering works with customers to develop, design and manufacture full spacecraft solutions; this is typically project driven over a period of time. Related to that, RLKB can provide constellation management services where it performs command and control operations, utilizing ground station infrastructure to deliver data to spacecraft constellation operator customers following launch. Longer term, the company will aim to offer some sort of data & analytics software/service, but Deutsche Bank notes this is a tricky balance given conflicts of interest with major launch customers.

	'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source : Satnews.</ref>		'''Figure 21: Photon spacecraft'''<ref>Source: Satnews.</ref>

	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 17 Image 0001.jpg]]


	'''Figure 22: Types of space components~~'''~~<ref~~>Source~~ : ~~Company reports.<~~/~~ref~~>
			'''Figure 22: Types of space components<ref name=":0" />'''

	[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 18 Image 0001.jpg]]		[[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 18 Image 0001.jpg]]
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	Ultimately once Rocket Lab is at 3 rockets per month, the gross margin should be closer to 50% with upside as vertical integration increases, quality/yields improve, and reusability of the rocket's first stage gets incorporated (driving costs to ~$3.5m per launch vs. 2019's $8.2m). The larger Neutron rocket could be initially dilutive but should be accretive longer term considering it was purpose-built for reusability and leverages past learnings. For Space Systems, gross margins are already quite high on a relative basis, averaging 65% in 1H21. Management believes this should trend downwards somewhat from elevated levels as it prices more aggressively to garner higher volumes.		Ultimately once Rocket Lab is at 3 rockets per month, the gross margin should be closer to 50% with upside as vertical integration increases, quality/yields improve, and reusability of the rocket's first stage gets incorporated (driving costs to ~$3.5m per launch vs. 2019's $8.2m). The larger Neutron rocket could be initially dilutive but should be accretive longer term considering it was purpose-built for reusability and leverages past learnings. For Space Systems, gross margins are already quite high on a relative basis, averaging 65% in 1H21. Management believes this should trend downwards somewhat from elevated levels as it prices more aggressively to garner higher volumes.
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|+'''Figure 23: Gross margin breakdown<ref~~>Source~~: ~~Company reports, Deutsche Bank.<~~/~~ref~~>'''		\|+'''Figure 23: Gross margin breakdown<ref name=":1" />'''
	!($000)		!($000)
	!2022E		!2022E
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	In terms of capital intensity, Deutsche Bank believes Rocket Lab has raised enough cash as part of the SPAC listing to achieve its main business objectives, getting nearly $780m in gross proceeds (before transaction fees and management redemption). The company has been extremely cash efficient, having reached orbit multiple times with minimal spending. Looking ahead, the company will need to spend on developing Neutron ($60-70m of anticipated capex with some portion potentially shared by local government similar to the Virginia/Wallops situation), and expanding capabilities in Space Systems, which management has indicated would likely involve M&A. Depreciation is expected to about 4-5% of revenue.		In terms of capital intensity, Deutsche Bank believes Rocket Lab has raised enough cash as part of the SPAC listing to achieve its main business objectives, getting nearly $780m in gross proceeds (before transaction fees and management redemption). The company has been extremely cash efficient, having reached orbit multiple times with minimal spending. Looking ahead, the company will need to spend on developing Neutron ($60-70m of anticipated capex with some portion potentially shared by local government similar to the Virginia/Wallops situation), and expanding capabilities in Space Systems, which management has indicated would likely involve M&A. Depreciation is expected to about 4-5% of revenue.
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|+Figure 24: Segment summary<ref~~>Source~~: ~~Company reports, Deutsche Bank.<~~/~~ref~~>		\|+Figure 24: Segment summary<ref name=":1" />
	!		!
	!2021E		!2021E
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	== Notes ==		== Notes ==
			<references />

>Deutsche at 13:25, 16 June 2022

2022-06-16T13:25:50Z

Show changes

>Deutsche: /* Clear leader in small rockets, but preparing to size up */

2022-06-16T12:26:49Z

Clear leader in small rockets, but preparing to size up

Show changes