UBS Group AG - Revision history

>Archierjeremy: /* Markets */

2023-08-23T15:06:05Z

Markets

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:06, 23 August 2023
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	== Markets ==		== Markets ==

			=== Total Addressable Market ===
			Total Addressable Market: Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global financial services market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market, in terms of revenue, is $28.1 trillion.<ref>https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/financial-services-global-market-report</ref>

			=== Serviceable Available Market ===
			Serviceable Available Market: Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global commercial banking market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market, in terms of revenue, is $2.8 trillion.<ref>https://www.ibisworld.com/global/market-size/global-commercial-banks/</ref>

			=== Serviceable Obtainable Market ===
			Serviceable Obtainable Market: Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the US commercial banking market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market, in terms of revenue, is $1.1 trillion.<ref>https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/market-size/commercial-banking-united-states/</ref>

	== Competition ==		== Competition ==

>Archierjeremy at 14:51, 23 August 2023

2023-08-23T14:51:48Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:51, 23 August 2023
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	UBS is a preeminent global financial advisory and solutions provider, catering to private, institutional, and corporate clients across the world, with a particular emphasis on Swiss private clients. With a widespread presence in major financial centers, our recent integration with Credit Suisse enhances our capabilities, offering clients elevated value, a broader spectrum of services, and an extended global reach, reaffirming UBS's role as a driver of financial achievement.<ref>https://www.ubs.com/global/en/our-firm/what-we-do.html</ref>		UBS is a preeminent global financial advisory and solutions provider, catering to private, institutional, and corporate clients across the world, with a particular emphasis on Swiss private clients. With a widespread presence in major financial centers, our recent integration with Credit Suisse enhances our capabilities, offering clients elevated value, a broader spectrum of services, and an extended global reach, reaffirming UBS's role as a driver of financial achievement.<ref>https://www.ubs.com/global/en/our-firm/what-we-do.html</ref>

			Considering UBS Group AG's strategic trajectory and integrated assumptions, our analysis envisions a potential 53.5% return over five years, correlating to an average annual growth rate of about 10.7%. This projects a £100,000 investment in UBS potentially growing to around £153,500 within five years, considering the foreseen upside. These insights amalgamate Stockhub user perspectives, our detailed DCF model, and current market valuation.

	== Operations ==		== Operations ==

>Archierjeremy: /* Sensitivity analysis */

2023-08-23T14:48:39Z

Sensitivity analysis

@@ Line 191: / Line 191: @@
 |}In our analysis of Airbus's valuation, we employed two distinct methods:
 *'''Discounted Cashflow''': By employing the perpetuity growth approach, we ascertain that UBS Group AG's implied share price stands at '''$36.43'''. Consequently, this yields an approximated upside potential of '''53.5%'''.
-*'''Trading Comps''':
+*'''Trading Comps''': In light of our calculations based on the comps analysis, where the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio indicates an estimated value of '''$15.93''', it's apparent that UBS Group AG's current stock value of $23.73 suggests a potential '''overvaluation''' in comparison to our projected valuation ranges.
 ===What's the expected return of an Investment in the Company?===
-According to Stockhub users' projections utilizing our DCF model and prevailing market value, an investment in Airbus is anticipated to yield an approximate '''42%''' return over the next five years. In simpler terms, a £1,000 investment in Safran is expected to increase to £1,420.00 in five years.
+Selecting the DCF valuation approach over the alternative methods, and considering an approximate upside potential of '''53.5%''' over a span of 5 years, projections based on Stockhub users' analysis suggest that an investment in UBS Group AG holds the potential for a significant return over the next five years, with an annual return of approximately 10.7%. To simplify, an initial £1,000 investment in UBS could potentially grow to around £1,535.00 in five years, taking into account the estimated upside.
 == Monte-Carlo Simulations ==
@@ Line 780: / Line 781: @@
 |$32.13
 |$32.67
-|}__INDEX__
+|}
 <references />

>Archierjeremy: /* Disocunted Cash Flow (DCF) */

2023-08-23T14:21:35Z

Disocunted Cash Flow (DCF)

Show changes

>Archierjeremy: /* Sensitivity analysis */

2023-08-23T14:19:44Z

Sensitivity analysis

@@ Line 301: / Line 301: @@
 ==== Sensitivity analysis ====
-I apologize for the confusion. I understand now that you want the table to be presented as it would appear in the chat window. Here it is:
+{| class="wikitable"
+! colspan="2" rowspan="2" |Sensitivity Analysis
-| Sensitivity Analysis | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% |
+! colspan="7" |Perpetuity Growth Rate
+|-
-|----------------------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------|
+|0.20%
+|0.70%
-| WACC 7.0%            | $33.77 | $34.60 | $35.46 | $36.37 | $37.33 | $38.34 | $39.41 |
+|1.20%
+|1.70%
-| WACC 7.5%            | $32.98 | $33.70 | $34.46 | $35.27 | $36.13 | $37.04 | $38.00 |
+|2.20%
+|2.70%
-| WACC 8.0%            | $32.24 | $32.83 | $33.47 | $34.16 | $34.89 | $35.68 | $36.51 |
+|3.20%
 |-
-| WACC 8.5%            | $31.55 | $32.01 | $32.52 | $33.08 | $33.70 | $34.37 | $35.10 |
+! rowspan="6" |WACC
 |7.0%
-| WACC 9.0%            | $30.90 | $31.26 | $31.67 | $32.12 | $32.63 | $33.18 | $33.79 |
+|$33.77
 |$34.60
-| WACC 9.5%            | $30.28 | $30.55 | $30.87 | $31.24 | $31.66 | $32.13 | $32.67 |
+|$35.46
 |$36.37
-Please feel free to copy and paste this table into your desired platform, and it should look like the table format you see in the chat window.
+|$37.33
 == Valuation ==

>Archierjeremy: /* Sensitivity analysis */

2023-08-23T14:14:35Z

Sensitivity analysis

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:14, 23 August 2023
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	==== Sensitivity analysis ====		==== Sensitivity analysis ====
	~~+------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+~~		I apologize for the confusion. I understand now that you want the table to be presented as it would appear in the chat window. Here it is:

	\| Sensitivity ~~Analysis~~ \| 0.2% \| 0.7% \| 1.2% \| 1.7% \| 2.2% \| 2.7% \| 3.2% \|		\| Sensitivity Analysis \| 0.2% \| 0.7% \| 1.2% \| 1.7% \| 2.2% \| 2.7% \| 3.2% \|

	+------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-----~~--+-------+~~		\|----------------------\|------\|------\|------\|------\|------\|------\|------\|

	\| WACC 7.0% \| $33.77\| $34.60\| $35.46\| $36.37\| $37.33\| $38.34\| $39.41\|		\| WACC 7.0% \| $33.77 \| $34.60 \| $35.46 \| $36.37 \| $37.33 \| $38.34 \| $39.41 \|

	\| WACC 7.5% \| $32.98\| $33.70\| $34.46\| $35.27\| $36.13\| $37.04\| $38.00\|		\| WACC 7.5% \| $32.98 \| $33.70 \| $34.46 \| $35.27 \| $36.13 \| $37.04 \| $38.00 \|

	\| WACC 8.0% \| $32.24\| $32.83\| $33.47\| $34.16\| $34.89\| $35.68\| $36.51\|		\| WACC 8.0% \| $32.24 \| $32.83 \| $33.47 \| $34.16 \| $34.89 \| $35.68 \| $36.51 \|

	\| WACC 8.5% \| $31.55\| $32.01\| $32.52\| $33.08\| $33.70\| $34.37\| $35.10\|		\| WACC 8.5% \| $31.55 \| $32.01 \| $32.52 \| $33.08 \| $33.70 \| $34.37 \| $35.10 \|

	\| WACC 9.0% \| $30.90\| $31.26\| $31.67\| $32.12\| $32.63\| $33.18\| $33.79\|		\| WACC 9.0% \| $30.90 \| $31.26 \| $31.67 \| $32.12 \| $32.63 \| $33.18 \| $33.79 \|

	\| WACC 9.5% \| $30.28\| $30.55\| $30.87\| $31.24\| $31.66\| $32.13\| $32.67\|		\| WACC 9.5% \| $30.28 \| $30.55 \| $30.87 \| $31.24 \| $31.66 \| $32.13 \| $32.67 \|

	~~+------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+~~		Please feel free to copy and paste this table into your desired platform, and it should look like the table format you see in the chat window.

	== Valuation ==		== Valuation ==

>Archierjeremy: /* Sensitivity analysis */

2023-08-23T14:13:04Z

Sensitivity analysis

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:13, 23 August 2023
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	==== Sensitivity analysis ====		==== Sensitivity analysis ====
	~~<nowiki>{\| class="wikitable"</nowiki>~~		+------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

	\|-		\| Sensitivity Analysis \| 0.2% \| 0.7% \| 1.2% \| 1.7% \| 2.2% \| 2.7% \| 3.2% \|

	~~! Sensitivity Analysis !! 0.2% !! 0.7% !! 1.2% !! 1.7% !! 2.2% !! 2.7% !! 3.2%~~		+------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

	\|-		\| WACC 7.0% \| $33.77\| $34.60\| $35.46\| $36.37\| $37.33\| $38.34\| $39.41\|

	! WACC 7.0% \| $33.77 \| $34.60 \| $35.46 \| $36.37 \| $37.33 \| $38.34 \| ~~$39.41~~		\| WACC 7.5% \| $32.98\| $33.70\| $34.46\| $35.27\| $36.13\| $37.04\| $38.00\|

	\|-		\| WACC 8.0% \| $32.24\| $32.83\| $33.47\| $34.16\| $34.89\| $35.68\| $36.51\|

	! WACC 7.5% \| $32.98 \| $33.70 \| $34.46 \| $35.27 \| $36.13 \| $37~~.04~~ \| $38.00		\| WACC 8.5% \| $31.55\| $32.01\| $32.52\| $33.08\| $33.70\| $34.37\| $35.10\|

	\|-		\| WACC 9.0% \| $30.90\| $31.26\| $31.67\| $32.12\| $32.63\| $33.18\| $33.79\|

	! WACC 8.0% \| $32.24 \| $32.83 \| $33.47 \| $34.16 \| $34.89 \| $35.68 \| $36.51		\| WACC 9.5% \| $30.28\| $30.55\| $30.87\| $31.24\| $31.66\| $32.13\| $32.67\|

	\|-		+------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

	~~! WACC 8.5% \| $31.55 \| $32.01 \| $32.52 \| $33.08 \| $33.70 \| $34.37 \| $35.10~~

	\|-

	~~! WACC 9.0% \| $30.90 \| $31.26 \| $31.67 \| $32.12 \| $32.63 \| $33.18 \| $33.79~~

	\|-

	~~! WACC 9.5% \| $30.28 \| $30.55 \| $30.87 \| $31.24 \| $31.66 \| $32.13 \| $32.67~~

	\|}

	== Valuation ==		== Valuation ==

>Archierjeremy: /* Calculation Results: */

2023-08-23T14:11:56Z

Calculation Results:

@@ Line 169: / Line 169: @@
 ==== Forecast Period: 5 years Calculate ====
-==== Free Cash Flows (FCF): ====
+==== Free Cash Flows (FCF) ====
 {| class="wikitable"
 !Year
@@ Line 244: / Line 244: @@
 |}
-==== Discount Cash Flows: ====
+==== Discount Cash Flows ====
 {| class="wikitable"
 !Year
@@ Line 282: / Line 282: @@
 |}
-==== Calculation Results: ====
+==== Calculation Results ====
 {| class="wikitable"
 !Calculation Results
@@ Line 298: / Line 298: @@
 !Upside
 |'''53.5%'''
 |}

>Archierjeremy: /* What's the Current Value of UBS Group AG? */

2023-08-23T14:02:57Z

What's the Current Value of UBS Group AG?

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:02, 23 August 2023
Line 331:		Line 331:
	\|		\|
	\|59.5		\|59.5
	\|}In our analysis of ~~UBS~~'s valuation, we employed two distinct methods:		\|}In our analysis of Airbus's valuation, we employed two distinct methods:
			*'''Discounted Cashflow''': By employing the perpetuity growth approach, we ascertain that UBS Group AG's implied share price stands at '''$36.43'''. Consequently, this yields an approximated upside potential of '''53.5%'''.
			*'''Trading Comps''':
			===What's the expected return of an Investment in the Company?===
			According to Stockhub users' projections utilizing our DCF model and prevailing market value, an investment in Airbus is anticipated to yield an approximate '''42%''' return over the next five years. In simpler terms, a £1,000 investment in Safran is expected to increase to £1,420.00 in five years.

			If an investment achieves its projected return of '''8.4%''', which aligns with a 'suitable' 8% annual return over a five-year period, it is deemed a viable choice for investing in the company.
	== Monte-Carlo Simulations ==		== Monte-Carlo Simulations ==

>Archierjeremy: /* Financial Performance Analysis */

2023-08-23T13:54:58Z

Financial Performance Analysis

@@ Line 157: / Line 157: @@
 UBS Group AG's financial performance exhibited stability over the years, with modest revenue fluctuations and steady net income growth. Despite the dynamic economic landscape, the company's revenue remained above $30 billion from 2019 to 2022. This consistent growth suggests effective management strategies. Further analysis of factors influencing these trends would provide a more comprehensive understanding.
 [[File:Financials UBS.png|center|thumb|500x500px]]
 == Valuation ==
 ===What's the Current Value of UBS Group AG?===