Wheaton Precious Metals - Revision history

95.149.241.133 at 00:31, 21 August 2022

2022-08-21T00:31:54Z

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	[[Category:Thesis]]		[[Category:Thesis]]
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			__INDEX__

109.180.50.163 at 08:45, 14 August 2022

2022-08-14T08:45:10Z

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	[[File:Wheaton Precious Metals logo.jpg\|thumb]]		[[File:Wheaton Precious Metals logo.jpg\|thumb]]
	~~'''~~Starting as it means to go on~~'''~~		Starting as it means to go on

	== Summary ==		== Summary ==
	~~'''~~Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has an exceptional business model that provides it with all of the characteristics investors look for in precious metal mining companies (eg exploration blue-sky, production upside and operational gearing) with few of the commonly attendant risks (eg cost, capex, tax and regulatory regimes). Q122 results at the start of this year were closely in line with Edison Investment Research's prior forecasts, while recent mineral stream acquisitions have given it a rising production profile.~~'''~~		Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has an exceptional business model that provides it with all of the characteristics investors look for in precious metal mining companies (eg exploration blue-sky, production upside and operational gearing) with few of the commonly attendant risks (eg cost, capex, tax and regulatory regimes). Q122 results at the start of this year were closely in line with Edison Investment Research's prior forecasts, while recent mineral stream acquisitions have given it a rising production profile.
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|+Key financials<ref>Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.</ref>		\|+Key financials<ref>Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.</ref>

>Louis at 16:12, 22 July 2022

2022-07-22T16:12:29Z

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	== References and notes ==		== References and notes ==
			<references />
			[[Category:Thesis]]
			[[Category:Equities]]

>Edison: /* New stream acquisitions add value */

2022-06-24T11:28:43Z

New stream acquisitions add value

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:28, 24 June 2022
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	=== New stream acquisitions add value ===		=== New stream acquisitions add value ===
	Since December 2021, WPM has invested US$930m in four mineral streams (Goose, Curipamba, Marathon and Blackwater), which Edison Investment Research estimates will increase ~~its~~ production profile by an average 101.9koz gold equivalent in the period FY25–31 (at Edison prices), with the possibility of adding a further 5.9koz gold pa for a US$50m investment via a non-binding agreement that it has with Rio2 regarding the Fenix project in Chile. As a result, Edison Investment Research projects that WPM’s production profile will increase from 710.2koz AuE in FY22 to 935.4koz AuE in FY26 (at standardised prices), with additional upside potential available from projects such as Pascua-Lama, Navidad and Toroparu. Within this context, WPM has also recently published its third annual sustainability report outlining how it will achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, alongside other long-established goals.		Since December 2021, WPM has invested US$930m in four mineral streams (Goose, Curipamba, Marathon and Blackwater), which Edison Investment Research estimates will increase the company's production profile by an average 101.9koz gold equivalent in the period FY25–31 (at Edison prices), with the possibility of adding a further 5.9koz gold pa for a US$50m investment via a non-binding agreement that it has with Rio2 regarding the Fenix project in Chile. As a result, Edison Investment Research projects that WPM’s production profile will increase from 710.2koz AuE in FY22 to 935.4koz AuE in FY26 (at standardised prices), with additional upside potential available from projects such as Pascua-Lama, Navidad and Toroparu. Within this context, WPM has also recently published its third annual sustainability report outlining how it will achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, alongside other long-established goals.

	=== Valuation: >US$50/share coming into focus ===		=== Valuation: >US$50/share coming into focus ===

>Edison at 11:06, 24 June 2022

2022-06-24T11:06:06Z

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>Edison: /* Other potential future growth opportunities */

2022-06-24T10:42:00Z

Other potential future growth opportunities

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>Edison: /* Ounces produced but not yet delivered */

2022-06-24T10:16:54Z

Ounces produced but not yet delivered

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:16, 24 June 2022
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	'''Exhibit 3: Over/(under) sale of silver and gold as a percentage of production, Q112–Q122<ref>Source: Edison Investment Research, WPM. Note: As reported.</ref>'''		'''Exhibit 3: Over/(under) sale of silver and gold as a percentage of production, Q112–Q122<ref>Source: Edison Investment Research, WPM. Note: As reported.</ref>'''

	[[File:Image3-e3e82cb4c5b8533db86448fc33d3d7c4.png\|600x600px]]Gold and silver ounces produced but not yet delivered as at 31 March amounted to 82,350oz and 3.9Moz, respectively (cf 84,989oz and 4.2Moz at end-Q421). Both of these were less than our prior forecasts of 91,337oz and 4.3Moz (respectively), albeit in part this could be attributed to the comparable figure in the prior quarter (anyway always an estimate) being restated downwards by 956koz in the case of gold, in particular. At the period end, we estimate that ounces produced but not yet delivered will equate to 2.80 months and 1.97 months of gold and silver production for FY22, respectively (cf 3.01 months and 1.92 months as at end-Q421) and compares with WPM’s target of two to three months of gold and palladium production and two months of silver production:		[[File:Image3-e3e82cb4c5b8533db86448fc33d3d7c4.png\|600x600px]]

			Gold and silver ounces produced but not yet delivered as at 31 March amounted to 82,350oz and 3.9Moz, respectively (cf 84,989oz and 4.2Moz at end-Q421). Both of these were less than our prior forecasts of 91,337oz and 4.3Moz (respectively), albeit in part this could be attributed to the comparable figure in the prior quarter (anyway always an estimate) being restated downwards by 956koz in the case of gold, in particular. At the period end, we estimate that ounces produced but not yet delivered will equate to 2.80 months and 1.97 months of gold and silver production for FY22, respectively (cf 3.01 months and 1.92 months as at end-Q421) and compares with WPM’s target of two to three months of gold and palladium production and two months of silver production:

	'''Exhibit 4: WPM ounces produced but not yet delivered, Q316–Q122 (months of production)<ref>Source: Edison Investment Research, WPM. Note: As reported.</ref>'''		'''Exhibit 4: WPM ounces produced but not yet delivered, Q316–Q122 (months of production)<ref>Source: Edison Investment Research, WPM. Note: As reported.</ref>'''

	[[File:Image4-637175b3be415fbbfb18d0864bdfb42c.png\|600x600px]]Note that, for these purposes, the use of the term ‘inventory’ reflects ounces of gold and silver produced by WPM’s operating counterparties at the mines over which it has streaming agreements, but which have not yet been delivered to WPM. It in no way reflects the other use of the term in the mining industry, where it typically refers to metal in circuit and ore on stockpiles etc.		[[File:Image4-637175b3be415fbbfb18d0864bdfb42c.png\|600x600px]]

			Note that, for these purposes, the use of the term ‘inventory’ reflects ounces of gold and silver produced by WPM’s operating counterparties at the mines over which it has streaming agreements, but which have not yet been delivered to WPM. It in no way reflects the other use of the term in the mining industry, where it typically refers to metal in circuit and ore on stockpiles etc.

	== General and administrative expenses ==		== General and administrative expenses ==
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	'''Exhibit 6: Graph of historical share price move (US$/share) versus quarterly stock-based G&A expense, Q419–Q122<ref>Exhibit 6: Graph of historical share price move (US$/share) versus quarterly stock-based G&A expense, Q419–Q122.</ref>'''		'''Exhibit 6: Graph of historical share price move (US$/share) versus quarterly stock-based G&A expense, Q419–Q122<ref>Exhibit 6: Graph of historical share price move (US$/share) versus quarterly stock-based G&A expense, Q419–Q122.</ref>'''

	[[File:Image5-b79de835be7f9c3b8036bce0718d904b.png\|600x600px]]The analysis of stock-based G&A expenses over the past nine quarters relative to the change in WPM’s share price (also in US dollars) continues to exhibit a relatively close Pearson product moment (correlation) coefficient between the two of 0.76, which remains statistically significant at the 5% level for a directional hypothesis (ie there is less than a 5% probability that this relationship occurred by random chance) and this therefore continues to form the basis of quarterly and full-year for G&A expenses in Exhibit 12.		[[File:Image5-b79de835be7f9c3b8036bce0718d904b.png\|600x600px]]

			The analysis of stock-based G&A expenses over the past nine quarters relative to the change in WPM’s share price (also in US dollars) continues to exhibit a relatively close Pearson product moment (correlation) coefficient between the two of 0.76, which remains statistically significant at the 5% level for a directional hypothesis (ie there is less than a 5% probability that this relationship occurred by random chance) and this therefore continues to form the basis of quarterly and full-year for G&A expenses in Exhibit 12.

	== Exceptional business plan ==		== Exceptional business plan ==
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	In the light of Q122 results, recent moves in metals prices, forex rates and WPM’s share price, Edison has updated its quarterly estimates for WPM for FY22 as follows:		In the light of Q122 results, recent moves in metals prices, forex rates and WPM’s share price, Edison has updated its quarterly estimates for WPM for FY22 as follows:

			== References and notes ==

>Edison: Created page with "thumb '''Starting as it means to go on''' == Summary == '''Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has an exceptional business model that provides it with all of the characteristics investors look for in precious metal mining companies (eg exploration blue-sky, production upside and operational gearing) with few of the commonly attendant risks (eg cost, capex, tax and regulatory regimes). Q122 results at the start of this year were closel..."

2022-06-24T10:15:37Z

Created page with "thumb '''Starting as it means to go on''' == Summary == '''Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has an exceptional business model that provides it with all of the characteristics investors look for in precious metal mining companies (eg exploration blue-sky, production upside and operational gearing) with few of the commonly attendant risks (eg cost, capex, tax and regulatory regimes). Q122 results at the start of this year were closel..."

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