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== Appendix ==
== Appendix ==
ccc
 
=== Relative valuation approach ===
As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.
 
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Freetrade using the relative valuation approach? ====
Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Freetrade over the next five years is 4044%, which equates to an annual return of 111%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £5044 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
 
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|Growth-adjusted EV/sales
|For the numerator, the Stockhub users believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, the Stockhub users believe that because it expects Freetrade to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, the Stockhub users think that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple.
|-
|In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use?
|Year 5
|Stockhub suggests that with sales forecast to grow exponential over the five year forecast period, it's best to use forward-looking data, rather than historic data.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, Stockhub suggests that in order to account for the forecasted exponential growth of the business, it's best to use one at the end of the forecast period (i.e. Year 5).
|-
|In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use?
|Year 6, from now
|Stockhub suggests that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 6.
|-
|In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|0.19x
|In Stockhub's view, Freetrade closest peers are AJ Bell, Hargreaves Lansdown, Robinhood Markets, Inc, Avanza Bank Holding AB and The Charles Schwab Corporation.
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Stockhub
|The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
|-
|What's the current value of the Stockhub company?
|£225 million
|As at 13th June 2023, the current value of its company at £225 million.<ref name=":9">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/13/freetrade-stock-trading-start-up-valuation-plunge/</ref>
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and five years time
|Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}
 
==== Sensitivity analysis ====
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Freetrade investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): 
 
#The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple 0.19);
#Freetrade Year 5 sales figure (the default figure is £777 million); and
#Freetrade Year 6 sales growth rate (the default rate is 63%).
 
The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Freetrade investment is shown in the table below.
 
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Freetrade investment expected return sensitivity analysis
!Main input
!50% worse
!Unchanged
!50% better
|-
|The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple
|1972%
|4044%
|6116%
|-
|Freetrade Year 5 sales figure
|1972%
|4044%
|6116%
|-
|Freetrade Year 6 sales growth rate
|1972%
|4044%
|6116%
|}
 
===Economic links to cash flow patterns ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Economic links to cash flow patterns
|-
!Cash flow type!!Introduction!!Growth!!Shake out!!Mature!!Decline
|-
|Operating|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | +/-|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-
|-
|Investing|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
|-
|Financing|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-
|}
 
=== Beta risk profile ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Beta value
!Risk rating
|-
|style="background: green; color: white;" |0 to 0.50
|style="background: green; color: white;" | Low
|-
|style="background: orange; color: white;" | 0.50 to 1.50
|style="background: orange; color: white;" | Medium
|-
|style="background: red; color: white;" | 1.50 to 3.00
|style="background: red; color: white;" | High
|-
|style="background: purple; color: white;" | 3.00 and above
|style="background: purple; color: white;" | Extremely high
|}
 
=== Freetrade adjusted beta calculation ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Date
!iShares MSCI World ETF unit price (USD)
!Freetrade share price (GBP)
!iShares MSCI World ETF unit price change (%)
!Freetrade share price change (%)
|-
|01/07/2016
|63
|0.08
|
|
|-
|01/02/2017
|68
|0.15
|7.94%
|87.50%
|-
|01/03/2018
|79
|0.25
|16.18%
|66.67%
|-
|01/04/2019
|85
|0.84
|7.59%
|236.00%
|-
|01/06/2019
|84
|0.96
| -1.18%
|14.29%
|-
|01/10/2019
|88
|0.96
|4.76%
|0.00%
|-
|01/05/2020
|86
|2.51
| -2.27%
|161.46%
|-
|01/02/2021
|110
|3.77
|27.91%
|50.20%
|-
|01/11/2021
|127
|9.25
|15.45%
|145.36%
|-
|01/06/2023
|120
|2.60
| -5.51%
| -71.89%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Freetrade beta and adjusted beta value
!
!Beta
!Adjusted beta
!Comment(s)
|-
|Consistent (monthly) intervals between data points
|0.73
|0.82
|Here, when there is no valuation event, we have assumed that the share price is the same as the previous month, and, therefore, there has been no change in the share price. For example, there was no Freetrade valuation event in January 2022, so we have assumed that the valuation of Freetrade is the same in January 2022 as the previous month of December 2020 (at 9.25p), and, therefore, the share price change in January is 0%.
|-
|Inconsistent intervals between data points
|2.28
|1.85
|Because there's only seven Freetrade valuation events, and, therefore, seven, available data points, calculating beta based on inconsistent intervals between data points seems to be the best approach.
|}
 
===Funding history===
 
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+Arctic Shores Funding<ref name=":2" />
|+Arctic Shores Funding<ref name=":2" />

Revision as of 11:36, 24 October 2023


Operations

The idea behind Arctic Shores and its game-based assessments was born out of the recognition that traditional recruitment processes had several limitations, including potential biases and a heavy reliance on CVs or resumes that might not provide a full picture of a candidate's abilities or potential.

Robert Newry, the founder of Arctic Shores, sought to develop a more innovative approach to talent assessment. He and his team believed that by leveraging technology and game mechanics, they could create engaging assessments that offered a more holistic view of a candidate. This would not only help companies make better hiring decisions but also provide a fairer and more objective process for candidates, reducing potential biases and barriers to entry for diverse candidates.

Game-based assessments provide an immersive environment where candidates' cognitive, emotional, and personality traits can be observed in a more natural and less stressful setting than traditional tests. This approach also makes the recruitment process more enjoyable for the candidate.

The overall aim was to disrupt the traditional recruitment industry by offering tools that could provide deeper insights into a candidate's potential, ensuring that talent was recognised beyond just what was written on a CV.

What's the mission of the company?

Arctic Shores' mission is to provide more objective, engaging, and fair ways to assess potential employees, going beyond the traditional CV to give every candidate a chance to showcase their true potential.

The game-based assessments they developed are designed to measure cognitive and emotional abilities, as well as personality traits, in a more engaging way than traditional psychometric tests. By doing so, they aim to reduce biases in hiring decisions and improve the diversity and quality of hires.

Team

CEO & Co-Founder[1]

Robert Newry, MA (Oxon), MBA, is the CEO and Co-Founder of Arctic Shores and a passionate advocate for social mobility and hiring for potential. He has spoken on the topic of psychometrics, HR technology, and AI, appearing on national television BBC (twice) and has been quoted in several national newspapers in the UK including The Times, CityAM, and The Guardian. He has also written articles and blogs on the topic of gamification and behaviour-based assessments for many of the leading HR media outlets such as HR Grapevine, HR Today, HR News, HR Magazine, the HRDirector and Talint International.

He is campaigning for companies to Scrap the CV as the method to decide if to interview someone or not. His research through the company and discussions with multiple employers underpins his belief that the CV is a barrier to social mobility and hiring for potential.

Career pathway

Robert has a degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics but his passion has always been for business. He started work on the shop floor in Birmingham working as a graduate trainee for an engineering company ending up as UK and Developing Markets Sales Manager. After completing his MBA, where he was a double Prize Winner, he worked in Hong Kong for Inchcape Plc, ultimately leading their document management business in China and the Philippines. He set up his first company, NewField IT in 2003, which after 8 years of growth he sold to Xerox. He co-founded Arctic Shores with his friend Dr. Safe Hammad in 2013 after a coffee discussing the inequalities of graduate hiring and the lack of innovation in the world of psychometric assessment.

Qualifications and Professional Development

He is a PRINCE 2 Practioner and certified at ITIL Foundation.

Co-founder and advisor[2]

Safe Hammad.

Chair of the Board of the Directors[3]

Adam Hale.

Chief Growth Officer[4]

As our Chief Growth Officer, Estelle drives the business forward.

Estelle is passionate about equality and diversity, improving social mobility and removing bias from the workplace and the recruitment process to make sure people get opportunities based on potential rather than privilege. Working at Arctic Shores means she can help customers address these challenges and see the positive impact that they achieve using our assessment.

Estelle is a regular contributor to various podcasts and conferences, focusing on the themes of social mobility, and ED&I in the tech and HR industry. More recently she has been a guest on Hyperengage: The Customer Success podcast.  She spoke at the IHR Diversity and Inclusion conference in June and was a guest speaker at the LATAM 2022 Talent Attraction and Selection Congress in August.

Career pathway

Her role at Arctic Shores sees her draw on 15 years spent winning hearts and minds in the consultancy space – where she co-owned and scaled a firm, pre-acquisition.

She first started her career in law before moving into political and public policy consultancy - always finding career opportunities that allow her to work towards missions she feels passionate about. Working on topics such as Olympic legacy, sustainable aviation, women in tech and engineering, and now, at Arctic Shores, she is working with our customers  PwC, BBC, and Airbus helping them to combat bias and improve social mobility by hiring for potential.

Her transition from professional services consultancy to the world of HR tech is a story of hiring for potential in its own right. Setting up and leading a Customer function in a SaaS business were completely new challenges for Estelle, but our co-founders Robert and Safe saw the potential she had to be a great CCO.

Outside of work she has held number of non-exec roles in the charity and art sectors. Her current role as Chair of ZooNation: a dance company working to reach and represent diverse audiences, allows her to combine her passion for performance and commitment to equal opportunity.

Qualifications and Professional Development

Law degree from Edinburgh University

Chair of ZooNation

Named by Cranfield University as 100 Women to Watch in 2020

Chief Product Officer[5]

As a product leader, Claire has successfully created, scaled and developed global product offerings and product teams from startup to scale-up and post acquisition, ensuring she puts the customer at the centre of all that she does.

Bringing together the disciplines and expertise of Product Management (PM), Psychometrics and User Experience (UX), the product team at Arctic Shores utilises its knowledge of neuro and data science, emerging trends, design thinking, and both customer and user needs to bring innovative, market-leading products and features to market that solve customer’s critical pain points and deliver value.

"I’m so proud to be part of the talented team at Arctic Shores and our mission to discover potential and give employers the means to see it."

Today, Arctic Shores’ assessments help the world’s most progressive businesses see beyond skills and experience and understand the potential of every candidate enabling them to counter natural bias, and build the diverse, successful, extraordinary teams to achieve their goals.

Career pathway

Claire began her career as an IT consultant at PwC. Thriving in client-facing roles including business analysis and project management on large-scale engagements aimed at driving business change through technology for media-telco organisations e.g. BT, O2, Three, Sky.

It was her desire to empower and better enable project teams that was the catalyst for moving into a new career - leveraging a multitude of transferable skills and retraining as an HR practitioner in the professional services industry.  Her role as Head of People at MakePositive (a platinum Salesforce Consulting Partner) in the late 2000s and early 2010s also provided her with a unique opportunity to bear witness to the ‘Software as a Service’ evolution from a disruptive tech to becoming a ubiquitous business model during this period.

Her move into product management with Sage / Sage People (formerly Fairsail) resulted from recognising her potential to add value to subscription software for talent acquisition and talent management - exploiting her understanding of cloud technology and agile development practices and combining this with her empathy for the pain points of an HR customer / user, to develop award winning SaaS products in the HR tech space.

Qualifications and Professional Development

Alongside her Post-Graduate Diploma (PgDip) in HR Management Claire is a Chartered Member (MCIPD) of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.

VP Finance & Operations[6]

Craig qualified as a Chartered Accountant over 10 years ago with an educational background in medical science.  Craig oversees the Operations function of Arctic Shores including, Finance and Accounts, Investor Relations, Company Secretarial, People (HR), IT and Business Operations.  All these functions support Arctic Shores' operational efficiency as it quickly scales.

Career pathway

After training as an auditor at RSM UK, Craig moved into his first industry role at a mid-sized listed software company and then a large multinational corporate travel management company (TMC).

Qualifications and Professional Development

BFP ACA Chartered Accountant (ICAEW).

VP Marketing[7]

Hannah Garner.

VP Sales[8]

Kurtis-Daniel Winn

Director of Professional Services and Support[9][9]

Jill Summers is passionate about potential, diversity and the customer experience. She is a huge advocate of our ‘Scrap the CV’ initiative and believes it will accelerate social mobility and is a solution to the skills crisis. She’s worked in the field of occupational psychology for nearly 20 years; however, in this time, Arctic Shores is the only organisation where she’s seen all of her passions come to life through the company mission: ‘discover potential and give employers the means to see it’.

Jill’s role means she has the privilege of leading our Professional Services and Community & Support Teams and works with talented Business Psychologists, Programme Managers and Community Support Representatives to onboard and support customers using our products. She’s proud to be part of the team at Arctic Shores and is excited for more customers to embark on the journey of looking beyond the CV and hiring the right people, in the right way.

Career pathway

Jill began her career in 2004 in NHS Scotland’s Occupational Health Department to provide public and private sector customers with support in sickness absence management, occupational stress management and soft skills training. In 2008, Jill moved to London to work in Consulting and innovated recruitment and development practices (for graduate through to CEO level roles), across numerous Government Departments (i.e. Security Services, Home Office, Ministry of Justice etc.) and private sector companies (i.e. Capita, HSBC, RBS etc.).

In 2012, she then moved to Amberjack Global to be the Head of Assessment & Development and led a team of 8 Psychologists and Project Managers (and 100+ freelance Psychologists / Assessment Specialists). This role allowed Jill to work on global redesign projects which delivered ROI and secured renewals for companies such as GSK, Unilever, Tesco, EY etc. After nearly 5 years at Amberjack, Jill joined Arctic Shores as the Head of Customer Solutions and then as the Director of Professional Services & Support to combine her passions of potential, diversity and customer experience.

Qualifications and Professional Development

Jill studied at the University of Edinburgh and the University of Northumbria at Newcastle for her BSc in Biological Sciences (Hons. in Psychology) and MSc Occupational Psychology respectively. During her MSc she completed Test User qualifications for ability and personality tests and is trained to use a number of tools across early career & Board level roles. Jill also has training in coaching, assessment centre management and project management.

Director of Engineering[10]

Alex Richardson.

Head of Customer Success[11]

Federica Rusmini.

Head of Psychometrics Output[12]

Fiadhna McEvoy

Senior Psychometrician[13]

Luke Montuori is a psychometrician at Arctic Shores. Psychometrics is the field of study that’s concerned with measuring psychological constructs. Psychometricians can be found in a range of industries - from health, to education, and of course people management - building new ways to measure things about people, refining pre-existing measurement tools, or exploring what these instruments tell us about people’s behaviour.

"Being a psychometrician at Arctic Shores comes with a broad set of responsibilities. First, we need to identify psychological constructs that are both meaningful and commercially relevant. Once we’ve identified a construct of interest, we then have to figure out how to measure those constructs. From there I work with a team of colleagues in areas such as UX, software development, data science, and customer services, to build products that provide value to our users - candidates and clients alike."

Arctic Shores has been the ideal place to pursue a career in psychological product development. Building truly innovative product requires the ability to explore new ideas, a degree of independence, and the safety to fail. At the same time, getting a product built requires a commitment to collaboration and compromise. All of these (sometimes competing) endeavours are really enabled by the culture at Arctic Shores, where we explicitly value Making a difference, Growing together, and Exploring always.

Career pathway

After completing his Psychology degree at the University of New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Luke found himself compelled to carry on further research into the neurobiology of learning and memory. To him, these processes are some of the most fundamental to understanding how people behave. So from there he moved to the United Kingdom, and completed his Ph.D. in behavioural neuroscience at Cardiff University. There he conducted research into the nature of representation formation, answering questions about how the most basic and unassuming perceptual experiences are themselves able to change the way we see the world.

After completing his Ph.D. he made the decision to move into a more commercial setting, and began working as a psychometrician at a traditional psychometric test publishing company. There he picked up the skills and knowledge required to be a psychometrician.

A few years into his career change Luke was attending the annual conference of the British Psychological Society’s Division of Occupational Psychology. It was there he first met some of the Arctic Shores science team, conversing late into the night about the history and philosophy of psychology as a science, and what that meant for commercial applications of psychology. Soon after, he was recruited by Arctic Shores to work on legacy aptitude products. Since then the opportunities available to him and the scope of his role have only increased. Most recently this can be seen in the roll out of our next-generation fluid intelligence levels. Currently, he is driving the development of new levels designed to measure novel psychological constructs in innovative ways. Here, he has had the opportunity to contribute to peer-reviewed journals and cultivate sides of me that wouldn’t necessarily be valued in other organisations. Working at Arctic Shores gives him the perfect opportunity to combine his specific academic background with the skills he has developed as a psychometrician.

Qualifications and Professional Development

In addition to his BSc (Psychology honours first class), and Ph.D. (Psychology: Behavioural Neuroscience), Luke is also a BPS Chartered Psychologist (CPsychol.), and holds the BPS Test User certificates (Ability, Personality). Outside of his work at Arctic Shores, he runs his own consulting business.

Though most of his published works reflect his Ph.D. topic, Luke has recently begun to publish again, as a result of research activities at Arctic Shores. In addition to his publications, he has been fortunate enough to present some of his previous research at international conferences, such as the meeting of the Spanish Society for Comparative Psychology, and the Associative Learning Symposium

Competition

A key way to determine a product's closest competitors is by looking at other offerings that are targeting the same or similar target audience (i.e. recruiters) and aiming to provide the same core benefit (i.e. more efficient recruiting, and, ultimately, maximising profits), and then ranking the offerings in terms of the total amount of time spent using and/or money spent purchasing the offerings relative to other similar offerings. With that said, according to Stockhub users, the closest competitor of the Arctic Shores offering is Pymetrics.

Arctic Shores operates in the talent assessment and HR tech space, offering game-based assessments for recruitment. In this domain, they face competition from both traditional psychometric test providers and other innovative assessment tool providers. A detailed comparison between Arctic Shores and some of its main competitors are shown in the table below.

Offering name Arctic Shores Pymetrics HireVue CodinGame Revelian SHL Aon's Assessment Solutions Talent Q
Offering description Uses neuroscience-based games and artificial intelligence to match candidates' emotional and cognitive abilities with company profiles. Offers video interviewing software and also uses AI-driven assessments to evaluate video interviews. While primarily focused on the tech recruitment space, they offer gamified coding challenges and assessments for programmers. Offers a range of assessment tools, including game-based assessments that evaluate cognitive ability and emotional intelligence. Provides more traditional forms of cognitive and personality testing. Provides more traditional forms of cognitive and personality testing. Provides more traditional forms of cognitive and personality testing. Provides more traditional forms of cognitive and personality testing.
User satifcation N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Time to hire[14] N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cost per hire[15] N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Price N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Market

TAM (Total Addressable Market):

The global recruitment industry is vast, with thousands of companies worldwide hiring millions of employees each year. If we consider the entire global market for talent assessment tools (including traditional assessments, psychometric testing, and more innovative solutions like game-based assessments), it is likely worth several billion dollars. For example, the HR tech industry in its entirety (which includes recruitment, employee engagement, training, and more) was estimated to be worth over $400 billion in 2020. The talent assessment segment is just a portion of this.

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market):

If Arctic Shores focuses on multinational corporations in developed countries with substantial hiring volumes and interest in innovative HR solutions, this would represent a significant slice of the total market, but not its entirety. The exact value would depend on the number of such corporations, their average spending on recruitment tools, and other factors. A rough guess might put this in the tens of billions, but this is a broad estimate.

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market):

Arctic Shores' SOM would be a subset of their SAM, and would depend on their competitive positioning, product efficacy, marketing efforts, and other factors. Without specific data on their market share and the adoption rate of game-based assessment tools, it's challenging to provide a numeric estimate. It could be anywhere from several million to several billion, depending on the aforementioned factors.

Financials

ccc

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Period end date 31/03/2014[16] 31/03/2015[17] 31/03/2016[18] 31/03/2017[19] 31/03/2018[20] 31/12/2018[20] 31/12/2019[21] 31/12/2020[22] 31/12/2021[23] 31/12/2022[23] 31/12/2023
Period duration (days) 278 365 366 365 365 273 366 365 365 365 365
Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Forecast
Profit and loss
Revenue N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Net profit N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Balance sheet
Fixed assets
Tangible assets 0 1,578 4,709 6,261 11,391 28,075 29,816 23,208 10,922 15,471
Investments 0 0 0 0 27,175 27,175 0 0 0 0
0 1,578 4,709 6,261 38,566 55,250 29,816 23,208 10,922 15,471
Current assets
Debtors: amounts falling due within one year 984 48,304 24,033 129,247 330,032 770,097 460,046 539,983 810,434 701,411
Cash at bank and in hand 107,538 7,231 113,894 262,877 295,829 1,250,069 2,959,316 2,850,864 1,990,652 5,480,754
108,522 55,535 137,927 392,124 628,861 2,020,166 3,419,362 3,390,847 2,801,086 6,182,165
Creditors: amounts falling due within one year (2,284) (53,029) (45,887) (168,573) (436,957) (967,424) (1,307,807) (2,023,016) (2,738,249) (3,449,005)
Net current assets 106,238 2,506 92,040 223,551 191,904 1,052,742 2,111,555 1,367,831 62,837 2,733,160
Total assets less current liabilities 106,238 4,084 96,749 229,812 230,470 1,107,992 2,141,371 1,391,039 73,759 2,748,631
Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year (50,165) (51,178) (637,575) (53,264) (54,339) (55,160) (56,274) (451,783) (1,362,136) (754,295)
Net assets/(liabilities) 56,073 (47,094) (540,826) 176,548 176,131 1,052,832 2,085,097 939,256 (1,288,377) 1,994,336
Capital and reserves
Called up share capital 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 7
Share premium account 77,979 77,979 77,979 1,213,648 2,058,639 3,759,612 7,321,532 8,133,377 8,175,743 14,418,145
Profit and loss account (21,908) (125,075) (618,807) (1,037,103) (1,882,511) (2,706,784) (5,236,440) (7,194,126) (9,464,125) (12,423,816)
Shareholders' funds 56,073 (47,094) (540,826) 176,548 176,131 1,052,832 2,085,097 939,256 (1,288,377) 1,994,336

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Revenue
What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? $1,300,000,000 Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions[Note 1], it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $1.3 trillion.
What is the estimated company lifespan? 50 years Currently, Freetrade employs around 201, making the company a small organisation (less than 10,000 employees). That said, given the company's mission, we expect the company to grow to a large organisation, and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.[24]
What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? 3% Research shows that the growth rate of the global brokerage market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)[25].
What's the estimated company peak market share? 1% The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Freetrade is around 1%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 30th September 2021, Freetrade's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.0010%.
Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? Gaussian Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)[26], so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? 5 years Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Freetrade's current revenue amount (i.e. £12.68 million) and Freetrade's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Freetrade's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. introduction stage), the Stockhub users suggest using five years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within five years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
Growth stages
How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through? 4 stages Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.[27] Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.[28]

In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.[29] A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Freetrade's operating cash flows negative (-), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.

What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? 30% Research suggests 30%.[30]
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2? 10% Research suggests 10%.[30]
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3? 20% Research suggests 20%.[30]
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4? 40% Research suggests 40%.[30]
Growth stage 1
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 12.92% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 159.10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) (3.07)% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%) 56.26% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 8.59% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 50.93% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%) 21.75% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%) 0.06% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Growth stage 2
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 0.00% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 41.11% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) 15.23% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%) 79.52% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 1.13% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 52.01% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%) 0.27% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%) 0.41% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Growth stage 3
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 0.00% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 55.16% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) 19.91% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%) 18.93% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 2.21% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) (1.46)% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%) (1.10)% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%) 0.31% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Growth stage 4
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 36.13% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 174.39% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) (1.94)% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%) 47.29% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 6.25% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%) 2.13% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%) 0% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%) 0% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[31]. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.

Risks

As with any investment, investing in Arctic Shores carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Arctic Shores' adjusted beta (i.e. ccc), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Arctic Shores is 'high'.

Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used the seven available share price Arctic Shores data points. We note that the amount of available data observations for Arctic Shores is less than what's typically used in the five years of monthly data beta calculation (i.e. seven observations vs. 60 observations), and accordingly, calculating the beta of such a company has been considered by many to be abnormal; however, for the benefit of simplifying investment comparisons and decision making, we believe that a single standardised risk measure is useful, and that the most appropriate measure is beta.

The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'high' risk, it must have a beta value of 1.5 or more. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.

Early-stage investment

Arctic Shores is at one of the earliest stages of the business lifecycle, and the failure rate of companies at that stage is usually much higher than those at a later stage.

Illiquid investment

The number of transactions in shares of private companies is usually significantly lower than in public companies, typically resulting in it taking longer to sell shares in private companies at a price that is at least equal to the price that the shares were bought at. Accordingly, the Arctic Shores investment opportunity is considered to be higher risk than more liquid companies.

Valuation

ccc

The firm valuation is between $30m and $46m as of January 2023, according to Dealroom.co estimates.[32] The valuation is based on either of: the publicly disclosed value, or an estimate that is based on the last funding round amount, using similar rounds as benchmarks.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Which valuation model do you want to use? Discounted cash flow Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach[33], so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report).

Freetrade has never paid cash dividends, and on 7th February 2022, it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).

Which financial forecasts to use? Stockhub The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub users (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so the Stockhub users suggest using those.
Growth stage 1
Discount rate (%) 30% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 70% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1) is 70%.
Growth stage 2
Discount rate (%) 15% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 80% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 80%.
Growth stage 3
Discount rate (%) 10% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 100% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.
Growth stage 4
Discount rate (%) 10% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 100% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.
Other key inputs
What's the current value of the company? £225 million As at 13th June 2023, the current value of its company at £225 million.[34]
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? Between now and five years time Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.[35] Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Sensitivity analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Arctic Shores investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

  1. The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $1.3 trillion);
  2. Arctic Shores peak market share (the default share is 1%); and
  3. The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 16.50%).

The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Arctic Shores investment is shown in the table below.

Arctic Shores investment expected return sensitivity analysis
Main input 50% worse Unchanged 50% better
The discount rate (258)% 202% 1752%
The size of the total addressable market 51% 202% 352%
Arctic Shores peak market share 51% 202% 352%

Actions

To invest in Arctic Shores, click here.

To contact Arctic Shores, click here.

Appendix

Relative valuation approach

As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.

What's the expected return of an investment in Freetrade using the relative valuation approach?

Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Freetrade over the next five years is 4044%, which equates to an annual return of 111%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £5044 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Which type of multiple do you want to use? Growth-adjusted EV/sales For the numerator, the Stockhub users believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, the Stockhub users believe that because it expects Freetrade to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, the Stockhub users think that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use? Year 5 Stockhub suggests that with sales forecast to grow exponential over the five year forecast period, it's best to use forward-looking data, rather than historic data.

In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, Stockhub suggests that in order to account for the forecasted exponential growth of the business, it's best to use one at the end of the forecast period (i.e. Year 5).

In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use? Year 6, from now Stockhub suggests that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 6.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use? 0.19x In Stockhub's view, Freetrade closest peers are AJ Bell, Hargreaves Lansdown, Robinhood Markets, Inc, Avanza Bank Holding AB and The Charles Schwab Corporation.
Which financial forecasts to use? Stockhub The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
What's the current value of the Stockhub company? £225 million As at 13th June 2023, the current value of its company at £225 million.[34]
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? Between now and five years time Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Sensitivity analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Freetrade investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

  1. The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple 0.19);
  2. Freetrade Year 5 sales figure (the default figure is £777 million); and
  3. Freetrade Year 6 sales growth rate (the default rate is 63%).

The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Freetrade investment is shown in the table below.

Freetrade investment expected return sensitivity analysis
Main input 50% worse Unchanged 50% better
The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple 1972% 4044% 6116%
Freetrade Year 5 sales figure 1972% 4044% 6116%
Freetrade Year 6 sales growth rate 1972% 4044% 6116%

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Economic links to cash flow patterns
Cash flow type Introduction Growth Shake out Mature Decline
Operating - + +/- + -
Investing - - +/- - +
Financing + + +/- - +/-

Beta risk profile

Beta value Risk rating
0 to 0.50 Low
0.50 to 1.50 Medium
1.50 to 3.00 High
3.00 and above Extremely high

Freetrade adjusted beta calculation

Date iShares MSCI World ETF unit price (USD) Freetrade share price (GBP) iShares MSCI World ETF unit price change (%) Freetrade share price change (%)
01/07/2016 63 0.08
01/02/2017 68 0.15 7.94% 87.50%
01/03/2018 79 0.25 16.18% 66.67%
01/04/2019 85 0.84 7.59% 236.00%
01/06/2019 84 0.96 -1.18% 14.29%
01/10/2019 88 0.96 4.76% 0.00%
01/05/2020 86 2.51 -2.27% 161.46%
01/02/2021 110 3.77 27.91% 50.20%
01/11/2021 127 9.25 15.45% 145.36%
01/06/2023 120 2.60 -5.51% -71.89%
Freetrade beta and adjusted beta value
Beta Adjusted beta Comment(s)
Consistent (monthly) intervals between data points 0.73 0.82 Here, when there is no valuation event, we have assumed that the share price is the same as the previous month, and, therefore, there has been no change in the share price. For example, there was no Freetrade valuation event in January 2022, so we have assumed that the valuation of Freetrade is the same in January 2022 as the previous month of December 2020 (at 9.25p), and, therefore, the share price change in January is 0%.
Inconsistent intervals between data points 2.28 1.85 Because there's only seven Freetrade valuation events, and, therefore, seven, available data points, calculating beta based on inconsistent intervals between data points seems to be the best approach.

Funding history

Arctic Shores Funding[32]
Date Investors Amount Pre-money valuation Round
- Home N/A N/A - (not yet verified)
Dec 2017 N/A N/A N/A Seed (not yet verified)
Sep 2019[36] Beringea, Candy Ventures $5.5m N/A Series A
Feb 2020 Tech Nation N/A N/A Support Program
Jan 2022 Standard Treasury £1.5m N/A Debt (not yet verified)
Jan 2023[37] Beringea, Calculus Capital, Praetura Ventures £5.8m N/A Series B
Total Funding $13.1m
Date Total number of issues shared New shares Class of shares Comments
28/06/2013[38] 2 2 Ordinary
28/01/2014[39] 2,000,000 1,999,998 Ordinary Sub-division of shares.
10/12/2014[40] 2,169,521 169,521 Ordinary
23/06/2016[41] 2,386,883 217,362 Ordinary
23/06/2016[41] 2,864,189 477,306 Ordinary
08/02/2017[42] 2,976,372 112,183 Ordinary
20/06/2017[43] 3,095,715 119,343 Ordinary
04/08/2017[44] 3,286,660 190,945 Ordinary
10/10/2017[45] 3,389,295 102,635 Ordinary
09/07/2018[46] 3,593,670 204,375 Ordinary
18/10/2018[47] 3,969,722 376,052 Ordinary There's a discrepancy between the total number of shares in this table and in the company's filing (3,969,722 vs. 3,978,195), a difference of 8,473 shares. The 8,473 shares seem to relate to the company Needham Consultancy Ltd [48] and/or to the person James Williams. [49]
22/08/2019[50] 4,025,502 55,780 Ordinary
28/08/2019[51] 4,899,547 874,045 A Ordinary
20/04/2022[52] 5,102,287 202,740 Ordinary
20/04/2022[53] 5,104,674 2,387 Ordinary
20/04/2022[53] 5,112,534 7,860 Ordinary
20/04/2022[53] 5,192,534 80,000 Ordinary
20/04/2022[53] 5,193,158 624 Ordinary
20/04/2022[53] 5,195,206 2,048 Ordinary
21/04/2022[33] 5,195,455 249 Ordinary
21/04/2022[33] 5,195,704 249 Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 5,211,261 15,557 Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 5,397,253 185,992 A Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 5,619,476 222,223 A Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 6,119,476 500,000 B Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 6,254,930 135,454 A1 Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 6,390,384 135,454 A2 Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 6,810,486 420,102 B1 Ordinary
05/01/2023[30] 7,230,588 420,102 B2 Ordinary
24/02/2023[31] 7,391,699 161,111 A Ordinary
24/02/2023[31] 7,416,587 24,888 A Ordinary
11/04/2023[54] 7,417,835 1,248 Ordinary
11/04/2023[54] 7,418,035 200 Ordinary
25/05/2023[34] 7,418,460 425 Ordinary
25/05/2023[34] 7,418,560 100 Ordinary
29/08/2023[55] 7,429,868 11,308 Ordinary
29/08/2023[55] 7,430,868 1,000 Ordinary
27/09/2023[56] 7,442,549 11,681 Ordinary
27/09/2023[56] 7,443,199 650 Ordinary
Total 7,268,501
Class of shares Number of shares Share class proportion of total shares (%)
A Ordinary 1,282,260 17.64%
B Ordinary 500,000 6.88%
Ordinary 4,375,129 60.19%
A1 Ordinary 135,454 1.86%
A2 Ordinary 135,454 1.86%
B1 Ordinary 420,102 5.78%
B2 Ordinary 420,102 5.78%
Total 7,268,501 100.00%
Shareholding as of 28th June 2023[48]
# Number of shares Share class Name
1 1,000,000 Ordinary Robert Newry
2 1,000,000 Ordinary Safe Hammad
3 38,543 Ordinary Andrew Needham
4 54,333 Ordinary Royston Jeans
5 64,500 Ordinary Sherief Hammad
6 6,522 Ordinary Caroline Elliman
7 96,097 Ordinary Oliver Schrader
8 36,077 Ordinary Patricia Armstrong
9 170,406 Ordinary Malcolm Jackson
10 36,069 Ordinary Geoffrey Bailhache
11 985,937 Ordinary Candy Ventures Sarl
12 153,234 Ordinary NT Asset (Cayman) Limited
13 0 Ordinary R Needham Consultancy Ltd. 74,756 shares have been transferred, on 7th September 2018. To where have the shares been transferred?
14 26,731 Ordinary Penjuru Capital Pte Ltd.
15 8,473 Ordinary James Williams
16 38,183 Ordinary M R Howe
17 26,731 Ordinary Half Brother Capital Ltd.
18 10,308 Ordinary J Arkwright
19 12,415 Ordinary R Graham
20 20,691 Ordinary R Ronaldshay (Earl of)
21 10,168 Ordinary R A Sangster
22 50,839 Ordinary Giles Slinger
23 50,839 Ordinary Lucy Slinger
24 27,291 Ordinary Nick Wentworth-Stanley
25 16,946 Ordinary Martin Elphron and Eugenia Ephson
26 16,946 Ordinary A Wentworth-Stanley
27 20,691 Ordinary Maria Nirusha Balaratham Trust
28 21,391 Ordinary Richard Wingfield
29 16,946 Ordinary Tower Pension Trustees Ltd.
30 20,691 Ordinary Jonathan Davie
31 20,691 Ordinary James Corcoran
32 10,168 Ordinary Kate Amin
33 12,415 Ordinary Guy Roxburghe
34 10,168 Ordinary Guy Sangster
35 10,308 Ordinary James Dean
36 10,308 Ordinary Harry Henderson
37 0 Ordinary Needham Consultancy Ltd. 8,473 shares have been transferred on 6th May 2018. To where have the shares been transferred?
38 9,721 Ordinary Christopher Milln
39 8,473 Ordinary Richard Benyon
40 7,866 Ordinary Atomico Angel Program I, LLC.
41 3,745 Ordinary Eugenia Ephson
42 24,972 Ordinary Philip Green[57]
43 713,809 A Ordinary Proven Growth and Income VCT Plc.
44 382,459 A Ordinary Proven VCT Plc.
45 7,860 Ordinary Alastair Frater
46 2,387 Ordinary Joe Wilson
47 249 Ordinary Calum Murphy
48 2,048 Ordinary David Cuthbertson
49 80,624 Ordinary Lara Montefiori
50 249 Ordinary Nisha Wasim
51 100 Ordinary Nathan Braithwaite
52 425 Ordinary Tom Satterthwaite
53 624 Ordinary Joel Yusupoff
54 624 Ordinary Mark Williamson
55 824 Ordinary Tara Franks
56 3,206 A Ordinary Robert Newry
57 3,206 A Ordinary Safe Hammad
58 420,102 B1 Ordinary Calculus Nominees Ltd.
59 420,102 B2 Ordinary Calculus Nominees Ltd.
60 350,000 B Ordinary MNL Nominees Ltd.
61 135,454 A1 Ordinary Calculus VCT Plc.
62 135,454 A2 Ordinary Calculus VCT Plc.
63 9,620 A Ordinary Malcolm Jackson
64 8.017 A Ordinary NT Asset (Cayman) Limited
65 150,000 B Ordinary MNL (BBI) Nominees Limited
66 11,224 A Ordinary Adam Hale
67 92,999 A Ordinary UK FF Nominees Ltd.
68 4,008 A Ordinary Sherief[58] Hammad
69 10,422 A Ordinary Giles Slinger
70 10,422 A Ordinary Lucy Slinger
71 9,620 A Ordinary Philip[59] Green
72 6,413 A Ordinary David Mills
73 4,810 A Ordinary John Woyton
74 4,008 A Ordinary Etedal Hammad
75 94,341 Ordinary Needham Ventures Limited
76 8,017 A Ordinary Needham Ventures Limited
Aggregated shareholding as of 28th June 2023[48]
# Shareholder Number of shares Proportion of total shares (%) Comment(s)
1 Robert Newry 1,003,206 13.85% Robert is one of the co-founders of Arctic Shores. He is also the CEO of the company. Further information about Robert can be found in the 'team' section of the report.
2 Safe Hammad 1,003,206 13.85% Safe is one of the co-founders of Arctic Shores. He is also an advisor of the company. Further information about Safe can be found in the 'team' section of the report.
3 Candy Ventures Sarl 985,937 13.61%
4 Calculus Nominees Ltd. 840,204 11.60%
5 Proven Growth and Income VCT Plc. 713,809 9.86%
6 Proven VCT Plc. 382,459 5.28%
7 MNL Nominees Ltd. 350,000 4.83%
8 Calculus VCT Plc. 270,908 3.74%
9 Malcolm Jackson 180,026 2.49%
10 NT Asset (Cayman) Limited 153,242 2.12%
11 MNL (BBI) Nominees Limited 150,000 2.07%
12 Needham Ventures Limited 102,358 1.41%
13 Oliver Schrader 96,097 1.33%
14 UK FF Nominees Ltd. 92,999 1.28%
15 Lara Montefiori 80,624 1.11%
16 Sherief Hammad 68,508 0.95%
17 Giles Slinger 61,261 0.85%
18 Lucy Slinger 61,261 0.85%
19 Royston Jeans 54,333 0.75%
20 Andrew Needham 38,543 0.53%
21 M R Howe 38,183 0.53%
22 Patricia Armstrong 36,077 0.50%
23 Geoffrey Bailhache 36,069 0.50%
24 Philip Green 34,592 0.48% Further information about Philip can be found by clicking here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philip-green-35b38210/details/experience/
25 Nick Wentworth-Stanley 27,291 0.38%
26 Half Brother Capital Ltd. 26,731 0.37%
27 Penjuru Capital Pte Ltd. 26,731 0.37%
28 Richard Wingfield 21,391 0.30%
29 James Corcoran 20,691 0.29%
30 Jonathan Davie 20,691 0.29%
31 Maria Nirusha Balaratham Trust 20,691 0.29%
32 R Ronaldshay (Earl of) 20,691 0.29% The title "Earl of Ronaldshay" is a courtesy title for the eldest son and heir of the Marquess of Zetland. The title has been held by different individuals across generations within the Dundas family, with notable holders serving in significant political roles, particularly in relation to British colonial administration in India during the early 20th century​.[60]
33 A Wentworth-Stanley 16,946 0.23%
34 Martin Elphron and Eugenia Ephson 16,946 0.23%
35 Tower Pension Trustees Ltd. 16,946 0.23%
36 Guy Roxburghe 12,415 0.17%
37 R Graham 12,415 0.17%
38 Adam Hale 11,224 0.15%
39 Harry Henderson 10,308 0.14%
40 J Arkwright 10,308 0.14%
41 James Dean 10,308 0.14%
42 Guy Sangster 10,168 0.14%
43 Kate Amin 10,168 0.14%
44 R A Sangster 10,168 0.14%
45 Christopher Milln 9,721 0.13%
46 James Williams 8,473 0.12%
47 Richard Benyon 8,473 0.12%
48 Atomico Angel Program I, LLC. 7,866 0.11%
49 Alastair Frater 7,860 0.11%
50 Caroline Elliman 6,522 0.09%
51 David Mills 6,413 0.09%
52 John Woyton 4,810 0.07%
53 Etedal Hammad 4,008 0.06%
54 Eugenia Ephson 3,745 0.05%
55 Joe Wilson 2,387 0.03%
56 David Cuthbertson 2,048 0.03%
57 Tara Franks 824 0.01%
58 Joel Yusupoff 624 0.01%
59 Mark Williamson 624 0.01%
60 Tom Satterthwaite 425 0.01%
61 Calum Murphy 249 0.00%
62 Nisha Wasim 249 0.00%
63 Nathan Braithwaite 100 0.00%
Total 7,242,551 100.00%

References and notes

  1. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts
  2. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts
  3. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/adam-hale
  4. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/estelle-mccartney
  5. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/claire-jaques
  6. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/craig-humphrey
  7. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/hannah-garner
  8. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/kurtis-daniel-winn
  9. 9.0 9.1 https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/jill-summers
  10. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/alex-richardson
  11. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/federica-rusmini
  12. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/fiadhna-mcevoy
  13. https://www.arcticshores.com/meet-the-experts/luke-montuori
  14. The average time it takes to fill a vacancy from the point of job posting to offer acceptance is a crucial metric.
  15. The cost per hire metric encompasses all expenses associated with the recruitment process, including advertising, recruiter time, assessment tools, and onboarding costs.
  16. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzEyODU0NTE0N2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=xhtml&download=1
  17. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE2MTQ5OTg5OGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=xhtml&download=1
  18. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE4NDcyNTQ2NWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  19. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzIxOTIwNDY0NmFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  20. 20.0 20.1 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzI0NTQ4NzY4NGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  21. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzMxMDg1ODA4MWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=xhtml&download=1
  22. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzMzODc0MjM0OWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  23. 23.0 23.1 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzM4MDUxODU2MGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  24. Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.
  25. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate
  26. http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf
  27. Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x
  28. Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.
  29. Dickinson, 2010.
  30. 30.00 30.01 30.02 30.03 30.04 30.05 30.06 30.07 30.08 30.09 30.10 30.11 http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":6" defined multiple times with different content
  31. 31.00 31.01 31.02 31.03 31.04 31.05 31.06 31.07 31.08 31.09 31.10 31.11 31.12 31.13 31.14 31.15 31.16 31.17 31.18 31.19 31.20 31.21 31.22 31.23 31.24 31.25 31.26 31.27 31.28 31.29 31.30 31.31 31.32 31.33 http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":7" defined multiple times with different content
  32. 32.0 32.1 https://app.dealroom.co/companies/arctic_shores/
  33. 33.0 33.1 33.2 Demirakos et al., 2010; Gleason et al., 2013 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":5" defined multiple times with different content
  34. 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/13/freetrade-stock-trading-start-up-valuation-plunge/ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name ":9" defined multiple times with different content
  35. https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf
  36. https://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/beringea-leads-usd55m-investment-arctic-shores/
  37. https://www.arcticshores.com/news/arctic-shores-closes-5.75m-series-b-to-spearhead-the-soft-skills-assessment-market-and-accelerate-growth
  38. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzA4MDYyNjc5N2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  39. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzA5NTA0NTQ5NGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  40. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzExMzIyNTEwM2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  41. 41.0 41.1 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE1NjI1NzAyM2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  42. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE2ODUyNjQ5MmFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  43. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE3ODQ0ODk0NmFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  44. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE4MjI2NDg0NWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  45. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzE4NzI4NjEzN2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  46. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzIwOTMzOTQzOWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  47. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzIxNzI5Mjg0MmFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  48. 48.0 48.1 48.2 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzM4NjIxOTA2MWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  49. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzIwOTYwOTkxOGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  50. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzI0MjM4MzA2M2FkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  51. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzI0MjgxNDQ4OGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  52. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzMzNjczNjk5MGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  53. 53.0 53.1 53.2 53.3 53.4 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzMzNjczODA5OWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  54. 54.0 54.1 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzM3NTczMDY3MGFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  55. 55.0 55.1 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzM5MTExNzM0OWFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  56. 56.0 56.1 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08589048/filing-history/MzM5NDYzNTYyMmFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0
  57. It seems the correct spelling of the first name is 'Philip', not 'Phillip', based on the following Linked-In page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philip-green-35b38210/
  58. First name seems to be spelt incorrectly in the company's filing.
  59. Company filing shows 'Phil' Green, which seems to relate to the company's existing shareholder 'Phillip' Green.
  60. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marquess_of_Zetland


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