Custodian Property Income REIT plc: Interim Results: Difference between revisions

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*For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has grown its dividends in the six months ended 30th September 2022, relative to the comparable period a year earlier, in-line with our expectations (of 10%).
*For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has grown its dividends in the six months ended 30th September 2022, relative to the comparable period a year earlier, in-line with our expectations (of 10%).
*Accordingly, we have maintained our forecasts.  
*Accordingly, we have maintained our forecasts.  
*With the shares currently trading at 91.70p per share, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT Plc over the next five-years is 53%, which equates to an annual return of 8.9%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £153,000 in five-years from now.  
*With the shares currently trading at 91.70p per share, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT Plc over the next five-years is 62%, which equates to an annual return of 10.2%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £162,000 in five-years from now.
*Assuming that a suitable return level in the five years is 50%, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
*Assuming that a suitable return level in the five years is 50%, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
== Interims ==
== Interims ==
On 14th December 2022, the company announced its 2022 interim results.
On 14th December 2022, the company announced its 2022 interim results.<ref>https://www.investegate.co.uk/custodian-property-income-reit/eqs/interim-results/20221214070021EKITI/</ref>


For the six months ended 30th September 2022, revenue increased by 10.64% to £22.30mm (H1 FY21: £20.15mm), driven by income that is rechargeable to tenants. Adjusting for the rechargeable income, revenue increased by 1.67% to £19.59mm (H1 FY21: £19.27mm), entirely generated from rental income from the company's investment properties. As a result of a revaluation of investment property, the company swung to a net loss of £14.09mm (H1 FY21: positive £48.07mm).
For the six months ended 30th September 2022, revenue increased by 10.64% to £22.30mm (H1 FY21: £20.15mm), driven by income that is rechargeable to tenants. Adjusting for the rechargeable income, revenue increased by 1.67% to £19.59mm (H1 FY21: £19.27mm), entirely generated from rental income from the company's investment properties. As a result of a revaluation of investment property, the company swung to a net loss of £14.09mm (H1 FY21: positive £48.07mm).
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== Name change ==
== Name change ==
On the 7th December 2022, the company has announced that to better reflect the main objective/mission of the company, it has changed its name to Custodian Property Income REIT plc, from Custodian REIT plc.
On the 7th December 2022, the company has announced that to better reflect the main objective/mission of the company, it has changed its name to Custodian Property Income REIT plc, from Custodian REIT plc.<ref>https://www.investegate.co.uk/custodian-reit-plc--crei-/eqs/change-of-name/20221207070007ERINE/</ref>


The objective of the company is to generate income returns for shareholders.
The objective of the company is to generate income returns for shareholders.
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==== What's the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT using the absolute valuation approach? ====
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT using the absolute valuation approach? ====
Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT Plc over the next five-years is 53%, which equates to an annual return of 8.9%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £153,000 in five-years from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT Plc over the next five-years is 62%, which equates to an annual return of 10.2%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £162,000 in five-years from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.


Assuming that a suitable return level in the five years is 50% and Custodian Property Income REIT Plc achieves its expected return level (of 53%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
Assuming that a suitable return level in the five years is 60% and Custodian Property Income REIT Plc achieves its expected return level (of 62%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.


==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
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|-
|-
|What is the required return on equity?
|What is the required return on equity?
|6.04%
|5.73%
|For estimating the required return on equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which provides an economically grounded and relatively objective procedure for required return estimation, and, therefore, it has been widely used in valuation. The calculation of the required return on equity (and the reasons behind the calculation) can be found in the table below.
|For estimating the required return on equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which provides an economically grounded and relatively objective procedure for required return estimation, and, therefore, it has been widely used in valuation. The calculation of the required return on equity (and the reasons behind the calculation) can be found in the table below.
|-
|-
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|-
|-
|Equity risk premium (%)
|Equity risk premium (%)
|6.00
|5.26
|Here, the equity risk premium is in relation to the global region, and is calculated as at 1st January 2022 (<nowiki>https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html</nowiki>).
|Here, the equity risk premium is in relation to the global region, and is calculated as at 1st January 2022 (<nowiki>https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html</nowiki>).
|-
|-
|Cost of equity (%)
|Cost of equity (%)
|6.04%
|5.73%
|Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.
|Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.
|}
|}
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The three main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Custodian Property Income REIT Plc investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
The three main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Custodian Property Income REIT Plc investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):


# The discount rate (the default multiple is 6.04%);
# The discount rate (the default multiple is 5.73%);
#The 12-month ahead dividend per share forecast (the default forecast is 5.56 pence per share); and
#The 12-month ahead dividend per share forecast (the default forecast is 5.56 pence per share); and
# The dividend growth rate (the default multiple is 1.57%).
# The dividend growth rate (the default multiple is 1.57%).
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|-
|-
|Discount rate
|Discount rate
|9%
|15%
|53%
|62%
|158%
|177%
|-
|-
|Dividend per share
|Dividend per share
|7%
|14%
|53%
|62%
|99%
|111%
|-
|-
|Growth rate
|Growth rate
|38%
|46%
|53%
|62%
|72%
|83%
|}
|}



Revision as of 13:05, 17 December 2022

  • Custodian Property Income REIT plc, the UK-focused commercial real estate investment company, has made two announcements since we last reported on the company on 28th November 2022 (i.e. less than three weeks ago).
  • For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has grown its dividends in the six months ended 30th September 2022, relative to the comparable period a year earlier, in-line with our expectations (of 10%).
  • Accordingly, we have maintained our forecasts.
  • With the shares currently trading at 91.70p per share, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT Plc over the next five-years is 62%, which equates to an annual return of 10.2%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £162,000 in five-years from now.
  • Assuming that a suitable return level in the five years is 50%, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

Interims

On 14th December 2022, the company announced its 2022 interim results.[1]

For the six months ended 30th September 2022, revenue increased by 10.64% to £22.30mm (H1 FY21: £20.15mm), driven by income that is rechargeable to tenants. Adjusting for the rechargeable income, revenue increased by 1.67% to £19.59mm (H1 FY21: £19.27mm), entirely generated from rental income from the company's investment properties. As a result of a revaluation of investment property, the company swung to a net loss of £14.09mm (H1 FY21: positive £48.07mm).

Mainly driven by new investments, cash decreased by 59% to £4.77mm from six months earlier (FY21: £11.62mm). Following the investment acquisitions, net current liabilities decreased by 67% to £7.58mm (FY21: £23.10mm) and net debt increased by 37% to £171.83mm from six months earlier (FY21: £124.99mm). All-in-all, net assets decreased by 4.97% to £501.43mm (FY21: £527.64mm).

After adjusting for investment property revaluations (£62.39mm), net cash flows from operating activities decreased by 22% to £12.08mm (H1 FY21: £15.56mm). Mainly due to the purchase of investment properties (£52.82mm vs. £12.21mm), net cash flows from investing activities moved to negative £46.61mm (H1 FY21: positive £22.79mm). Net cash flows from financing activities moved to £27.68mm (H1 FY21: negative £5.13mm), driven by increased borrowings (the net borrowing difference between the periods is £32.87mm).

In comparison to the same period a year earlier, dividend increased by 10% to 2.75p per share (H1 FY21: 2.5p), and we note that they are fully covered by earnings (103%). The company reiterated that its target dividend amount for the financial year (i.e. 12-months ending 31 March 2023) is 5.5p or more, which equates to a 4.76% or more increase on a year earlier.

---

EPRA earnings[2] per share for the period decreased by 6.7% to 2.8p (H1 2021: 3.0p), mainly due to administrative cost inflation, rising interest rates and additional ESG compliance costs.

Fixed rate agreed debt facilities increased from 61% to 74%, significantly mitigating interest rate risk and maintaining a beneficial margin between the aggregate cost of debt of 3.5% and income returns from the property portfolio

Custodian Property Income REIT’s loan-to-value at 30th September 2022 of 25.5% now stands at 24.0% following post period end sales.  Of the Company’s £178m of drawn debt facilities 79% is at fixed rates of interest and the balance is drawn on a variable rate revolving credit facility. The weighted average term of drawn debt is 6.3 years and the average cost of debt is 3.5%.  Thanks to a strong balance sheet with significant covenant headroom and no debt facility maturing until September 2024 the Company is under no pressure to sell and the relatively low cost of debt should remain accretive to earnings through this phase of market turbulence.

The Company may use gearing provided that the maximum LTV shall not exceed 35%, with a medium-term net gearing target of 25% LTV.

Name change

On the 7th December 2022, the company has announced that to better reflect the main objective/mission of the company, it has changed its name to Custodian Property Income REIT plc, from Custodian REIT plc.[3]

The objective of the company is to generate income returns for shareholders.

Financials

In light of the announcements, we have maintained our forecasts, which can be found by clicking here.

Risks

As with any investment, investing in Custodian Property Income REIT carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the company's market beta[4] (i.e. 0.426), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT is relatively 'low'.

Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.

For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to macro-economic factors, in particular unexpected and sudden changes in inflation and interest rates movements.

Valuation

Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more/most accurate is the absolute valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.

What's the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT using the absolute valuation approach?

Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Custodian Property Income REIT Plc over the next five-years is 62%, which equates to an annual return of 10.2%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £162,000 in five-years from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level in the five years is 60% and Custodian Property Income REIT Plc achieves its expected return level (of 62%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Which valuation model do you want to use? Discounted cash flow Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more/most accurate is the absolute valuation approach[5], so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
Which type of discounted cash flow model do you want to use? Dividend discount model As a UK real estate investment trust (REIT), the company is legally required to distribute 90% of its income to shareholders (within 12-months of the end of the accounting period).[6][7] Accordingly, we suggest using the dividend discount model (DDM), which is one of the most common discounted cash flow models.
How many distinct stage of growth do you want to use? One stage For simplicity, we have used the one stage pattern here.
What is the expected lifespan of the business? Perpetual Again, for simplicity, we have assumed that the business continues forever.
What is the expected constant growth rate in dividends? 1.57% We note that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022) is around 3% per year for the global economy, and around 2.25% for the United Kingdom. Since the company's inception (i.e. eight years ago), the median dividend of the company is 1.57%.
Which financial forecasts to use? Proactive Investors Here, we have used the forecasts of Proactive Investors.
What is the required return on equity? 5.73% For estimating the required return on equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which provides an economically grounded and relatively objective procedure for required return estimation, and, therefore, it has been widely used in valuation. The calculation of the required return on equity (and the reasons behind the calculation) can be found in the table below.
What's the current value of the company? 91.70 pence per share As at 16th December 2022, the current value of Custodian Property Income REIT plc is 97.70p per share.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? Between now and five years time Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.[8] Accordingly, we suggest that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
Cost of equity (%)
Input Input value Additional information
Risk-free rate (%) 3.488% Here, the risk free rate is the US 30 year treasury bond, and is calculated as at 16th December 2022.
Beta 0.426 Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.
Equity risk premium (%) 5.26 Here, the equity risk premium is in relation to the global region, and is calculated as at 1st January 2022 (https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html).
Cost of equity (%) 5.73% Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.

Sensitive analysis

The three main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Custodian Property Income REIT Plc investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

  1. The discount rate (the default multiple is 5.73%);
  2. The 12-month ahead dividend per share forecast (the default forecast is 5.56 pence per share); and
  3. The dividend growth rate (the default multiple is 1.57%).

The impact of a 30% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Custodian Property Income REIT Plc investment is shown in the table below.

Custodian Property Income REIT investment expected return sensitive analysis
Main input 30% worse Unchanged 30% better
Discount rate 15% 62% 177%
Dividend per share 14% 62% 111%
Growth rate 46% 62% 83%

Appendix

Peers

The peers have been determined by Bloomberg's algorithm, and fall into the 'ccc' classification and 'ccc' industry. We note that Custodian Property Income REIT plc's yield and interest cover are in-line with its peers (6.02% vs. 6.02% and 5.12x vs. 5.12x). The company's debt-to-capital amount is around 5.25 percentage points lower than its peers (20.57% vs. 25.82%).

Peers
Company name Primary exchange Market capitalisation (USD) BF P/FFO Yield (%) Interest cover (x) Total debt/total capital
Custodian Property Income REIT plc United Kingdom 495.07M -- 6.02% 5.12 20.57%
Prs Reit Plc/The United Kingdom 577.62M -- 4.67% -- 35.16%
Regional Reit Ltd United Kingdom 381.88M -- 11.05% -- 44.34%
Triple Point Social Housing United Kingdom 325.50M -- 8.21% -- 37.23%
Abrdn Property Income Trust United Kingdom 273.84M -- 6.85% -- 21.63%
Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust United Kingdom 268.02M -- 7.12% -- 30.56%
Uk Commercial Property Reit United Kingdom 973.35M -- 8.49% 41.73 0.00%
Workspace Group Plc United Kingdom 1.01B -- 4.99% 2.98 25.82%
Lxi Reit Plc United Kingdom 2.49B -- 5.21% -- 15.58%
Derwent London Plc United Kingdom 3.32B 19.4x 3.22% 3.79 21.95%
Nextensa Belgium 514.41M -- 5.17% 5.76 54.35%

Dividends

Since the company's inception (i.e. eight years ago), the median dividend of the company is 1.57%, and the mean is 0.78%. We note that if the dividend grows in the current financial year (i.e. the year ending 31st March 2023) in-line with our forecast (i.e. 4.76%), then the median will increase to 1.59% and the mean to 1.28%.

Declared Custodian Property Income REIT plc dividends
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Growth (%)
2023 1.375 1.375 2.75
2022 1.25 1.25 1.375 1.375 5.25 5.00%
2021 0.95 1.05 1.25 1.25 0.50 5 -24.81%
2020 1.6625 1.6625 1.6625 1.6625 6.65 1.53%
2019 1.6375 1.6375 1.6375 1.6375 6.55 1.55%
2018 1.6125 1.6125 1.6125 1.6125 6.45 1.57%
2017 1.5875 1.5875 1.5875 1.5875 6.35 1.60%
2016 1.50 1.50 1.5875 1.6625 6.25 19.05%
2015 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 5.25

Financial statements

Condensed consolidated statement of comprehensive income
Unaudited

6 months

to 30 Sept 2022

Unaudited

6 months

to 30 Sept 2021

Audited

12 months

to 31 Mar

2022

£000 £000 £000
Revenue 22,296 20,152 39,891
Investment management fee (2,086) (1,788) (3,854)
Operating expenses of rental property rechargeable to tenants

(2,704)

(882)

(852)
Operating expenses of rental property directly incurred (1,127) (1,708) (3,422)
Professional fees (428) (262) (617)
Directors’ fees (167) (145) (291)
Administrative expenses (460) (356) (776)
Expenses (6,972) (5,141) (9,812)
Operating profit before financing and revaluation of investment property

15,324

15,011

30,079

Unrealised (losses)/gains on revaluation of investment property: relating to gross property revaluations

(27,742)

32,310

93,977

Unrealised (losses)/gains on revaluation of investment property: relating to acquisition costs (3,404) (1,069) (2,273)
Net valuation (decrease)/increase (31,146) 31,241 91,704
Profit on disposal of investment property 4,695 4,165 5,369
Net (losses)/profit on investment property (26,451) 35,406 97,073
Operating (loss)/profit before financing (11,127) 50,417 127,152
Finance income - - -
Finance costs (2,960) (2,347) (4,827)
Net finance costs (2,960) (2,347) (4,827)
(Loss)/profit before tax (14,087) 48,070 122,325
Income tax - - -
(Loss)/profit and total comprehensive (expense)/income for the Period, net of tax

(14,087)

48,070

122,325

Attributable to:
Owners of the Company (14,087) 48,070 122,325
Earnings per ordinary share:
Basic and diluted (p) (3.2) 11.4 28.5
EPRA (p) 2.8 3.0 5.9
Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
Unaudited

30 Sept

2022

Unaudited

30 Sept

2021

Audited

31 Mar

2022

£000 £000 £000
Non–current assets
Investment property 685,423 565,279 665,186
Property, plant and equipment 747 - -
Total non-current assets 686,170 565,279 665,186
Current assets
Trade and other receivables 6,019 6,452 5,201
Cash and cash equivalents 4,765 37,139 11,624
Total current assets 10,784 43,591 16,825
Total assets 696,954 608,870 682,011
Equity
Issued capital 4,409 4,206 4,409
Share premium 250,970 251,015 250,970
Merger reserve 18,931 - 18,931
Retained earnings 227,116 190,648 253,330
Total equity attributable to equity holders of the Company

501,426

445,869

527,640

Non-current liabilities
Borrowings 176,596 145,713 113,883
Other payables 570 571 570
Total non-current liabilities 177,166 146,284 114,453
Current liabilities
Borrowings - - 22,727
Trade and other payables 10,702 10,098 9,783
Deferred income 7,660 6,619 7,408
Total current liabilities 18,362 16,717 39,918
Total liabilities 195,528 163,001 154,371
Total equity and liabilities 696,954 608,870 682,011
Condensed consolidated statement of cash flows
Unaudited

6 months

to 30 Sept 2022

Unaudited

6 months

to 30 Sept 2021

Audited

12 months

to 31 Mar

2022

£000 £000 £000
Operating activities
(Loss)/profit for the Period (14,087) 48,070 122,325
Net finance costs 2,960 2,347 4,827
Net revaluation loss/(profit) 31,146 (31,241) (91,704)
Profit on disposal of investment property (4,695) (4,165) (5,369)
Impact of lease incentives (832) (741) (1,112)
Amortisation 4 4 7
Depreciation 8 - -
Cash flows from operating activities before changes in working capital and provisions

14,504

14,274

28,974

(Increase)/decrease in trade and other receivables (818) (451) 1,923
Increase in trade and other payables 1,169 3,913 1,702
Cash generated from operations 351 3,462 35,299
Interest and other finance charges (2,777) (2,176) (4,463)

Net cash flows from operating activities

12,078 15,560

28,136

Investing activities
Purchase of investment property (52,818) (12,217) (21,529)
Purchase of property, plant and equipment (755) - -
Capital expenditure (4,455) (1,803) (3,515)
Acquisition costs (3,404) (1,069) (2,272)
Proceeds from the disposal of investment property 14,899 38,299 54,403
Costs of disposal of investment property (80) (424) (479)
Net cash flows from/(used in) investing activities (46,613) 22,786 26,608
Financing activities
Proceeds from the issue of share capital - 558 558
Costs of the issue of share capital - (5) (51)
New borrowings 63,000 7,000 -
New borrowings origination costs (437) (62) -
Repayment of borrowings (22,760) - (25,057)
Dividends paid (12,127) (12,618) (24,191)
Net cash flows (used in)/from financing activities 27,676 (5,127) (48,874)

Net (decrease)/increase in cash and cash equivalents

(6,859) 33,219

6,003

Cash acquired through the acquisition of DRUM REIT - -

1,701

Cash and cash equivalents at start of the Period 11,624 3,920 3,920
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the Period 4,765 37,139 11,624

References and notes

  1. https://www.investegate.co.uk/custodian-property-income-reit/eqs/interim-results/20221214070021EKITI/
  2. EPRA Earnings is a measure of the underlying operating performance of an investment property company excluding fair value gains, investment property disposals and limited other items that are not considered to be part of the core activity of an investment property company. It has its basis firmly in IFRS earnings (operational earnings) with limited specific adjustments. It therefore does provide a measure of recurring income, but does not, for example, exclude ‘exceptional’ items that are part of IFRS earnings. EPRA Earnings is intended to provide a common baseline measure for performance that is relevant to investors in investment property companies. To ensure that all adjustments reflect the net result to the parent company’s shareholders taxes and minority interests in respect of all adjustments are also taken out.
  3. https://www.investegate.co.uk/custodian-reit-plc--crei-/eqs/change-of-name/20221207070007ERINE/
  4. Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1.
  5. Demirakos et al., 2010; Gleason et al., 2013.
  6. https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/tax/insights/uk-reits-attractive-vehicle-uk-property-investment/reit-conditions.html#distribution
  7. However, neither exempt gains, nor profits from the residual business income have to be distributed.
  8. https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf