Open main menu
Home
Random
Donate
Recent changes
Special pages
Community portal
Preferences
About Stockhub
Disclaimers
Search
User menu
Talk
Contributions
Create account
Log in
Editing
Bumble
(section)
Warning:
You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you
log in
or
create an account
, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
Anti-spam check. Do
not
fill this in!
==Bumble Montecarlo analysis== As John Maynard Keynes once said, "It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong." For this reason, instead of focusing only on single, static assumptions, Michele Sanguanini integrated the intrinsic valuation with a Montecarlo analysis. Instead of using a single value for each input, I'll use a random distribution of values and check the frequency/probability of each fair value. Distribution of values: * Growth rate: normal distribution with mean 20% and standard deviation of 10%.66% of the value will be within 10% and 30% growth rate. *EBIT Margin: normal distribution with mean 23% and standard deviation of 5%. *Sales to IC: triangular distribution. Minimum value 0.2, maximum one and most likely 1. Monte Carlo Distribution [[File:Bumble distribution of values.png]] Source: Created by the author. After 1,000 trials, Michele Sanguanini gets a lognormal distribution with a mean of $26.76 and a median of $22.50. [[File:Bumble lognormal distribution.png]] Source: Created by the author. According to the Monte Carlo simulation, at the current price of $56.11, Bumble has only a 7.4% probability of being undervalued/a good buy. The 25th percentile is $12.37, and the 75th at $37.01.
Summary:
Please note that all contributions to Stockhub may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see
Stockhub:Copyrights
for details).
Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel
Editing help
(opens in new window)