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FuelCell Energy, Inc.
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== Industry Outlook == The vast majority of hydrogen produced today is from the steam methane process - 95% in Europe (demaco-cryogenics.com/blog/steam-methane-reforming-to-green-hydrogen/). This process, while energy-efficient, also produces carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide which is bad for the environment and thus defeats the purpose of the exercise. In 2021 2.5% of final energy consumption came from hydrogen (www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2022/executive-summary). However, as the vast majority of hydrogen is abstracted using hydrocarbons, mostly natural gas, this figure is misleading. The global market for all hydrogen production was 151 billion in 2022 and will reach 276 billion in 2032 (https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/hydrogen-generation-market). The steam methane process method will be 236 billion in 2032. The green hydrogen market was 3.25 billion in 2021 and due to reach 58.5 billion by 2030 ([https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/02/21/2612013/0/en/Green-Hydrogen-Market-Size-Envisaged-to-Reach-USD-58-53-Billion-By-2030-Forecasted-39-6-CAGR-Polaris-Market-Research.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20research%20report,39.6%25%20during%20the%20forecast%20period. https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2023/02/21/2612013/0/en/Green-Hydrogen-Market-Size-Envisaged-to-Reach-USD-58-53-Billion-By-2030-Forecasted-39-6-CAGR-Polaris-Market-Research.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20research%20report,39.6%25%20during%20the%20forecast%20period.]). Thus, while grey hydrogen production is set to grow it is far outpaced by green hydrogen. A helping factor to the rise of hydrogen is the lowered costs of renewable energy which is required for green hydrogen. A key example of this is solar energy which is 75% the price of what it used to be (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/green-hydrogen-market-92444177.html). Similarly the cost of electrolysers for green hydrogen is about half the price of what it was 5 years ago, particularly from the developments in the oxide membrane which allows for near 100% efficiency for factories with already hot settings. Climate goals have been set by almost every country in the world. Hydrogen is a key and realistic method of countries achieving these goals. This is why the EU 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and to import 10 million tonnes by 2030 [https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-systems-integration/hydrogen_en (energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-systems-integration/hydrogen_en).] This is despite the EU only having 2% of hydrogen in their total energy consumption, below the global average of 2.5%. The EU and UK have pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050. In a carbon neutral world Deloitte have estimated that clean (renewable and low carbon) hydrogen could increase from 90 million metric tons (MT) today to 660 MT in 2050, making up 22 per cent of the final energy demand globally then (https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/focus/climate-change/zero-in-on-hydrogen.html?id=gb:2ps:3gl:4climate:6brand:hydrogen%20fuel-589416397834&gclid=Cj0KCQjwiIOmBhDjARIsAP6YhSWJ2CXJuVX_AQ2ZI8mssGp-oPosa9iCh6nAAgUj0Z3nMVmttpUVSxYaAku7EALw_wcB). Furthermore, as political pressure dictates greater use of the energy, the costs according to Deloitte will inevitably come down. The distributed power generation market is expected to reach $257 billion by 2028, driven by increasing energy demand, grid security concerns and sustainability initiatives. Fuel cell adoption is projected to grow at 19% CAGR, supported by dropping costs and technological improvements. The global carbon capture market may surpass $6 billion by 2027 as companies and governments prioritise decarbonisation. FuelCell's carbon capture solution is uniquely suited for smaller-scale applications in industrial and production facilities. The global fuel cell market is expected to reach $24.1 billion by 2027, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4%. Key drivers are needed to reduce carbon emissions, government incentives for clean energy, and demand for highly efficient and reliable decentralised power. Within this, the commercial and industrial segment is estimated to expand at 24.2% CAGR through 2027. FuelCell is positioned to benefit from growth in distributed generation. These trends provide strong tailwinds to support FuelCell's growth strategy. However, at the same time the infrastructure is not in place for hydrogen to be rolled out on a mass scale as of yet. Particularly with the topic of transportation - there are only 15 hydrogen filling stations in the UK currently.
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