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FuelCell Energy, Inc.
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== Cost of hyrdrogen energy vs fossil fuels == The annual growth of hyrdrogen energy of 8.8% to 2030 is based off the assumption the current cost ratio between the different energy sources. Green hydrogen currently costs between 3$ to 8$ per kg ([https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022). https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022).]) This is dependent on the renewable infrastructure in the local region. Thus, if renewable capacity is increased the cost of green hydrogen could be as low as 3$ per kg even with no advances in technology and subsequent reductions in cost. In October 2021 the cost of green hydrogen was lower than the cost of grey hydrogen in many parts of the world (https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/102221-european-green-hydrogen-costs-already-competitive-with-fossil-fuels-say-producers). This was mainly due to the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war. Although caused by a singular event, it appears the war is projected to last years. This will likely shift the balance between grey and green hydrogen as well as hydrogen energy itself against fossil fuels. However, the reduced costs of renewable energy, which are needed for green energy, are very unpredictable. This is shown by solar's 50% reduction in costs over the last 8 years ([https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022). https://sustainability.crugroup.com/article/energy-from-green-hydrogen-will-be-expensive-even-in-2050#:~:text=Some%20level%20of%20storage%20will,%2Fkg%20(real%202022).]). Although wind only had a cost reduction of 10% over the same period it is impossible to tell what price reductions in wind energy will occur in the next 8 years. What can be seen is the increase in global investment in renewable energy every year since 2014, reaching 755 billion in 2021 (https://renews.biz/75215/global-energy-transition-investment-hits-755bn-for-2021/). Furthermore, the biggest factor that will likely lead to an exponential surge in hydrogen energy is transportation. The sale of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned in the USA from 2035 and in many European countries this will happen in 2030 (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-pledges-end-gas-powered-federal-vehicle-purchases-by-2035-2021-12-08/). Currently the only substitute are electric and hyrdrogen cars but electric is much more dominant. As petrol and diesel cars ceased to be manufactured towards 2030 in Europe it is almost inevitable this will lead to exponential increases in investment in hydrogen abstraction and storage which will bring innovations. Combined with this, heating of homes from hydrogen will almost inevitably undergo an exponential surge towards 2030. The UK government has stated that 3 million homes in the UK will be heated by hydrogen by 2030 (https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-9905101/Millions-homes-hydrogen-powered-2030-drive-energy-bills.html). This is over 10% of UK homes. Thus the average projection of growth of hydrogen production of 8.8% annually is likely to be accurate for the coming years but in the few years before 2030 it is likely to be underplayed. I thus project a great 'surge' in hydrogen production towards 2030 (https://renewablesnow.com/news/hydrogen-production-to-surge-by-2030-as-more-countries-embrace-it-720430/). Analysts have stated that the period post 2020 is the time hydrogen will become mainstream - going from MW to GW (https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf). I thus differentiate from the mainstream view that the hydrogen surge will begin after 2030, as illustrated by PWC (https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/energy-utilities-resources/future-energy/green-hydrogen-cost.html). From the political steps taken by governments production and investment should surge 2 or 3 years before 2030.
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