Editing Gfinity plc
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== What type of investment is Gfinity and is it a suitable investment for me? == | == What type of investment is Gfinity and is it a suitable investment for me? == | ||
* | * Gfinity plc, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and delivers esports offerings to publishers, sports rights holders, and brands and media companies in the United Kingdom, North America, and internationally. The company delivers esports related technology and services for third parties, as well as provides broadcast and production services. It owns and operates gamer-centric websites, including gfinityesports.com, realsport101.com, stealthoptional.com, racinggames.gg, epicstream.com, mtgrocks.com, siege.gg, and stockinformer. In addition, the company offers IT development and tournament services, as well as event operator services; and engages in the online media activities. Gfinity plc was incorporated in 2012 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. | ||
== What is Gfinity and what makes it unique? == | == What is Gfinity and what makes it unique? == | ||
=== How did the idea of the company come about? === | === How did the idea of the company come about? === | ||
The idea of Gfinity plc came to Neville Upton, the now founder of the company, when he developed a strong desire to have more fun. Researching into how to do that, he realised that one of the best ways is via | The idea of Gfinity plc came to Neville Upton, the now founder of the company, when he developed a strong desire to have more fun. Researching into how to do that, he realised that one of the best ways is via gaming. He also realised that there are many people who feel the same way as him, with ccc. In his quest to have more fun for himself and others, Gfinity plc was born. | ||
=== What's the mission of the company? === | === What's the mission of the company? === | ||
The mission of Gfinity plc is to help people have more fun. | |||
=== What's the company's main offering(s)? === | === What's the company's main offering(s)? === | ||
=== Who’s the target audience of the company’s flagship/first product? === | === Who’s the target audience of the company’s flagship/first product? === | ||
The audience is people who are | The audience is people who are Analysts, as defined by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. | ||
=== What's a major problem that the target audience experience? === | === What's a major problem that the target audience experience? === | ||
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=== What's a key solution to the problem? === | === What's a key solution to the problem? === | ||
The solution is | The solution is | ||
electronic sports. What makes the sport unique is that it's live. Evidence suggests that a ccc platform will result in ccc financing their inventory much more efficiently, ultimately leading the people to improve their level of happiness. | |||
== Which are the main competitors of the product? == | == Which are the main competitors of the product? == | ||
A key way to determine an offering’s closest competitors is by looking at other offerings that are targeting the same or similar target audience (i.e. ccc) and providing or aiming to provide the same core benefit (i.e. ccc), and then ranking the offerings in terms of the total amount of time spent using and/or money spent purchasing the offerings. With that said, we view that the closest competitors of the Gfinity plc's offerings are ccc, ccc and ccc. A detailed comparison between Gfinity plc and its main competitors are shown in the table below. | A key way to determine an offering’s closest competitors is by looking at other offerings that are targeting the same or similar target audience (i.e. ccc) and providing or aiming to provide the same core benefit (i.e. ccc), and then ranking the offerings in terms of the total amount of time spent using and/or money spent purchasing the offerings. With that said, we view that the closest competitors of the Gfinity plc's offerings are ccc, ccc and ccc. A detailed comparison between Gfinity plc and its main competitors are shown in the table below. | ||
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== What is the main way that the company expects to make money? == | == What is the main way that the company expects to make money? == | ||
The main way | The main way is ccc. | ||
Other ways | Other ways include: | ||
# Revenue recognised in line with the date at which work is performed (i.e. partner programme delivery fees); | |||
# Revenue from entities sponsoring one of the company's events (i.e. sponsorship revenues); | |||
# Fees are earned each time a user clicks on one of the ads that are displayed on the website (i.e. advertising revenues); | |||
# Rights fees are received from linear broadcasters<ref>Linear broadcasting refers to the continuous streaming of predetermined programs on one channel. This is the broadcasting style that traditional television and radio stations have used for years.</ref> and online streaming platforms in return for rights to access broadcast content (i.e. broadcaster revenues); | |||
# Fees charged for the licensing of Gfinity esports technology, outside of the scope of a broader managed esports service provision (i.e. licensing revenues) | |||
== What’s the size of the company target market? == | == What’s the size of the company target market? == | ||
=== Total Addressable Market === | === Total Addressable Market === | ||
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global entertainment | Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global media and entertainment market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (3rd December 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.1 trillion. | ||
=== Serviceable Available Market === | === Serviceable Available Market === | ||
The serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global gaming | The serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global gaming market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (3rd December 2022), in terms of revenue, is $190 billion. | ||
=== Serviceable Obtainable Market === | === Serviceable Obtainable Market === | ||
Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the United Kingdom gaming | Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the United Kingdom gaming market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (3rd December 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2 billion. | ||
== Who are the key members of the team? == | == Who are the key members of the team? == | ||
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==== Since its most recent half year results ==== | ==== Since its most recent half year results ==== | ||
Since its most recent results (i.e. the results for the six months ended 30th June 2022), the company raised £ccc million via equity. It also issued £ccc million in new debt and repaid £ccc million in existing debt. Accordingly, it's cash, net cash, net current liabilities and net liabilities positions are £ccc million, £ccc million, £ccc million and £ccc million, respectively. It's worth noting that | Since its most recent results (i.e. the results for the six months ended 30th June 2022), the company raised £ccc million via equity. It also issued £ccc million in new debt and repaid £ccc million in existing debt. Accordingly, it's cash, net cash, net current liabilities and net liabilities positions are £ccc million, £ccc million, £ccc million and £ccc million, respectively. It's worth noting that Supply@ME Capital is in the 'introductory' stage of the business lifecycle (i.e. growth stage one), and in that stage, financing cash flows are positive (i.e. the business relies on external funding). | ||
==== What are the financials? ==== | ==== What are the financials? ==== | ||
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|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? | |What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? | ||
|$119,000,000,000 | |$119,000,000,000 | ||
|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global | |Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global working capital finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (28th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $119 billion. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What is the estimated company lifespan? | |What is the estimated company lifespan? | ||
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|What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? | |What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? | ||
|3% | |3% | ||
|Research shows that the growth rate of the | |Research shows that the growth rate of the working capital finance arrangement market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022). | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the estimated company peak market share? | |What's the estimated company peak market share? | ||
|1% | |1% | ||
|We estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of | |We estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Supply@ME Capital is around 1%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Supply@ME Capital's current share of the market is negligible. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? | |Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? | ||
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|What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? | |What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? | ||
|5.5 years | |5.5 years | ||
|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on | |Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Supply@ME Capital's current revenue amount (i.e. $0.6 million) and Supply@ME Capital's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Supply@ME Capital's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. introduction stage), the we suggest using five and a half years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within five and a half years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| colspan="3" |'''Growth stages''' | | colspan="3" |'''Growth stages''' | ||
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|4 stages | |4 stages | ||
|Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth. Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation. | |Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth. Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation. | ||
In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company. A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. We estimate that with | In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company. A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. We estimate that with Supply@ME Capital's operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? | |What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? | ||
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== What are the key risks of investing in the company? == | == What are the key risks of investing in the company? == | ||
As with any investment, investing in Gfinity plc carries a level of risk. The key risks can be found below. Overall, based on the Gfinity plc's adjusted beta (i.e. 0. | As with any investment, investing in Gfinity plc carries a level of risk. The key risks can be found below. Overall, based on the Gfinity plc's adjusted beta (i.e. 0.94), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Gfinity plc is 'low'. For calculating the beta, we used the S&P 500 as the relative index, and five years of monthly data. | ||
=== Strategic risks === | === Strategic risks === | ||
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We estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 411%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £51,100 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | We estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 411%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £51,100 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | ||
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and | Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one. | ||
=== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? === | === What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? === | ||
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|Discounted cash flow | |Discounted cash flow | ||
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that we suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). | |Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that we suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). | ||
Supply@ME Capital has never paid cash dividends, and it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model). | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Which financial forecasts to use? | |Which financial forecasts to use? | ||
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|What's the current value of the company? | |What's the current value of the company? | ||
|$54.80 million | |$54.80 million | ||
|As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the | |As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the Supply@Me Capital company is $54.80 million (or £45.30 million). | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | |Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | ||
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=== Sensitive analysis === | === Sensitive analysis === | ||
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the | The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Supply@Me Capital investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): | ||
# The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $119 billion); | # The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $119 billion); | ||
# | # Supply@Me Capital peak market share (the default share is 1%); and | ||
# The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 16%). | # The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 16%). | ||
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the | The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Supply@ME Capital investment is shown in the table below. | ||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | {| class="wikitable sortable" | ||
|+ | |+Supply@ME Capital investment expected return sensitive analysis | ||
!Main input | !Main input | ||
!10% worse | !10% worse | ||
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|To be added | |To be added | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Supply@ME Capital peak market share | ||
|To be added | |To be added | ||
|411% | |411% | ||
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==== What's the expected return of an investment in the company using the relative valuation approach? ==== | ==== What's the expected return of an investment in the company using the relative valuation approach? ==== | ||
Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in | Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Supply@ME Capital over the next 12 months is 141%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £24,100 in 12-months time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | ||
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and | Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 141%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one. | ||
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ==== | ==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ==== | ||
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|Which type of multiple do you want to use? | |Which type of multiple do you want to use? | ||
|Growth-adjusted EV/sales | |Growth-adjusted EV/sales | ||
|For the numerator, we believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, we believe that because it expects | |For the numerator, we believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, we believe that because it expects Supply@ME Capital to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, we suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, we feel that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use? | |In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use? | ||
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|What's the current value of the company? | |What's the current value of the company? | ||
|$54.80 million | |$54.80 million | ||
|As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the | |As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the Supply@Me Capital company is $54.80 million (or £45.30 million). | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | |Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | ||
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=== Sensitive analysis === | === Sensitive analysis === | ||
The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the | The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Supply@ME Capital investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): | ||
# The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple is 42x); | # The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple is 42x); | ||
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# The Year 2 to 4 sales growth forecast (the default forecast is 87%) | # The Year 2 to 4 sales growth forecast (the default forecast is 87%) | ||
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the | The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Supply@ME Capital investment is shown in the table below. | ||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | {| class="wikitable sortable" | ||
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis | |+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis |