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== Cellular agriculture could disrupt protein production<ref name=":0" /> == Meat protein in particular has witnessed a sharp increase in demand over the last decade, due to increasing consumption predominantly in China and India, yet global supply has been disrupted at times by outbreaks of disease. More recently, however, consumers have developed an increasing awareness of the unsustainability of conventional meat, providing significant scope for alternatives. While plant-based meat is currently the only commercially available alternative priced at a level that is affordable for consumers (albeit at a premium to mass market meat), Edison Investment Research believes cultivated meat could become a much more desirable alternative to conventional meat, and indeed could potentially replace it as consumers embrace cultivated meat. Kearney forecasts that the global meat market (including alternative meat) will grow from c US$1tn in 2018 to US$1.8tn by 2040. It forecasts that plant-based meat will grow significantly over the next 10 years as conventional meat sales decline, but cultivated meat is expected to overtake plant-based meat by 2040. '''Exhibit 1: Growth of the total global meat market by type, 2018–40e''' [[File:Growth of the total global meat market by type, 2018–40e.png|600px]] Source: Kearney, Edison Investment Research Protein consumption has witnessed a significant shift over the past five years, with the launch of plant-based meat alternatives such as Beyond Meat’s and Impossible Foods’ burgers. Meat alternatives have become more mainstream and acceptable to non-vegetarians, and the emergence of flexitarianism (to reduce – rather than eliminate – overall meat intake) has encouraged consumers to transition towards plant-based products. Indeed, protein consumption has become more flexible, as consumers make decisions based on ethical, environmental and health considerations. Food retailers and restaurants have adapted by offering more plant-based alternatives over time, with the latest addition being plant-based ‘Beyond Fried Chicken’ at KFC restaurants in January. The dairy segment has also been significantly disrupted by the advent of plant-based alternatives: what started as a transient fashion led to an increased uptake of plant-based dairy alternatives. This, in turn, led to increased availability of tasting and appealing alternatives, with consumers increasingly switching to what are perceived to be more ethical and healthier options. Edison Investment Research believes cultivated meat and seafood has the potential to disrupt conventional farming and fishing industries in a similar way. If the technical hurdles of cost, scalability and regulatory risk prove surmountable, cultivated protein could be priced at a similar level to conventional protein, but with much cleaner and more sustainable credentials.
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