Microsoft Corporation: Difference between revisions

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== Valuation ==
=== What is the expected return of an investment in the company? ===
The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 47%, which equates to an annual return of 8%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £1,470 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
=== What are the key assumptions used to estimate the return? ===
The key assumptions used to generate this prediction include the discount rate, revenue estimates and the perpetual growth rate. Considering that the company is at maturity we would typically use a lower discount rate to account for the fact we do not expect to see large scale growth in the company. Below we have detailed relevant discount rate values for companies in the varying growth stages.
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which valuation model was used?
|Discounted Cash Flow
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here.
Microsoft does pays cash dividends, however the companies ability to pay these dividends is not a point of concern. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).
|-
|Which Financial forecasts were used?
|Avg. estimates taken from Yahoo Finance
|We have used experts forecasts to predict revenue over the next two years.
|-
| colspan="3" |
==== Growth Stage 1  (Startup) ====
|-
|Discount Rate(%)
|30%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of Success(%)
|70%
|Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1), the rate is suitable 70% of the time.
|-
| colspan="3" |
==== Growth Stage 2 (Growth) ====
|-
|Discount Rate(%)
|15%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of Success(%)
|80%
|Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2), the rate is suitable 80% of the time.
|-
| colspan="3" |
==== Growth Stage 3 (Maturity) ====
|-
|Discount Rate(%)
|10%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of Success(%)
|100%
|Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3), the rate is suitable 100% of the time.
|-
| colspan="3" |
==== Growth Stage 4 (Renewal/Decline) ====
|-
|Discount Rate(%)
|<10%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of Success(%)
|100%
|Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4), the rate is suitable 100% of the time.
|}
|}



Revision as of 10:51, 27 July 2023

Microsoft Corporation
TypePublic
ISIN[https://stockhub.co/index.php?title=Toollabs:isin/&language=en&isin=US5949181045 US5949181045]
IndustryInformation technology
FoundedApril 4, 1975; 49 years ago (1975-04-04) in Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.
Founders
HeadquartersOne Microsoft Way
Redmond, Washington,
U.S.
Area served
Worldwide
Key people
Products
Brands
Services
RevenueIncrease US$198.3 billion (2022)
Increase US$83.4 billion (2022)
Increase US$72.7 billion (2022)
Total assetsIncrease US$364.8 billion (2022)
Total equityIncrease US$166.5 billion (2022)
Number of employees
221,000 (2022)
Divisions
Subsidiaries
Website
Footnotes / references
Financials as of June 30, 2022[1]

In 1975, Microsoft was established as a software company primarily focused on delivering an operating system for IBM computers. Over the years, it has experienced remarkable growth and evolved into one of the largest corporations globally, propelled by its renowned products like Windows, Xbox, and Microsoft Office. Today, Microsoft stands as a prominent force in the technology industry.

Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, and Skype for Business, as well as related Client Access Licenses (CAL); Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn; and Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based and on-premises business solutions for organizations and enterprise divisions. Its Intelligent Cloud segment licenses SQL, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and related CALs; GitHub that provides a collaboration platform and code hosting service for developers; and Azure, a cloud platform. It also offers support services and Microsoft consulting services to assist customers in developing, deploying, and managing Microsoft server and desktop solutions; and training and certification on Microsoft products. Its More Personal Computing segment provides Windows original equipment manufacturer (OEM) licensing and other non-volume licensing of the Windows operating system; Windows Commercial, such as volume licensing of the Windows operating system, Windows cloud services, and other Windows commercial offerings; patent licensing; Windows Internet of Things; and MSN advertising. It also offers Surface, PC accessories, PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, and other devices; Gaming, including Xbox hardware, and Xbox content and services; video games and third-party video game royalties; and Search, including Bing and Microsoft advertising. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and directly through digital marketplaces, online stores, and retail stores. It has collaborations with Dynatrace, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Micro Focus, WPP plc, ACI Worldwide, Inc., and iCIMS, Inc., as well as strategic relationships with Avaya Holdings Corp. and wejo Limited.

Operations

How did the idea of the company come about?

The idea for Microsoft corporation originated when its co-founders, Bill Gates and Paul Allen, seized a business opportunity in 1975. After learning about Altair 8000, which was one of the first commercially successful computers, they realised that software was crucial and saw the potential to establish a software company. Using experience from their programming ventures in the early 1970s, they founded Microsoft on April 4, 1975.

What is the mission of the company?

Microsoft Corporations mission is to empower every person and every organisation on the planet to achieve more.

What are the main offerings of the company?

Feature Comments Prices
Operating Systems Microsoft is well known for its operating systems, especially Windows. Windows powers a vast range of devices, from personal computers to servers and embedded systems. Various versions of windows are designed to suit the users need, for example Windows 11 for consumers and Windows Server for businesses. PCs that meet requirements are eligible for a free upgrade to Windows 11.

If PC needs a new license, Windows 11 Home can be bought from £119.99 and Windows 11 Pro from £219.99.

Microsoft 365 Including software such as Word, Excel and Outlook, Microsoft Office is widely used in both personal and professional settings in order to create/manage documents, spreadsheets and presentations. Microsoft 365 Personal - £59.99/year

Microsoft 365 Family - £79.99/year Microsoft 365 Student - Free using school email address

Cloud Services Microsoft has a significant presence in cloud computing through its Azure platform. It offers a comprehensive suite of cloud services, including infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), and software as a service (SaaS). Pricing based on usage.

Can calculate personal usage on website.

Enterprise Software Microsoft offers numerous enterprise software solutions. These include Microsoft Dynamics, an enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship management (CRM) software suite. Microsoft Dynamics helps organizations manage business processes and customer relationships efficiently. Based on Sales. Business, Finance, Marketing, Supply Chain, Service, Project Management, Human Resources, Customer Data and Commerce
Developer Tools Microsoft provides a range of developer tools and platforms, including Visual Studio, which is an integrated development environment (IDE) for building applications across different platforms and technologies. Visual Studio - £29.99
Gaming Microsoft's Xbox brand includes gaming consoles like Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S, as well as a vast amount of video games. The company also offers Xbox Live, an online gaming service that enables multiplayer gaming and provides access to digital content. Series X - £449.99 (1TB)

Series S - £299.99 (1TB)

Search Engines Microsoft operates the Bing search engine, which competes with other search engines like Google, whilst also serving as a platform for search advertising. Free
Internet Services Microsoft provides various internet-related services, such as Outlook.com for web-based email, OneDrive for cloud storage, and MSN (Microsoft Network) for news and content. Free
Devices Although it is not the primary focus of the company, Microsoft has produced hardware devices like the Surface line of tablets and laptops, as well as accessories such as keyboards and mice.
Al & Research Microsoft has heavily invested in artificial intelligence (AI) research and offers AI-related tools and services to developers and businesses to leverage AI capabilities.

From which place(s) are the offerings able to be purchased?

Offerings are available to be purchased though various channels, both in-store and online. This includes the Microsoft Store, Retail Stores and Online Retailers

What's the current strategy of the company?

Team

Chief Executive Officer: Satya Nadella

Satya.jpg




Executive Vice President/Chief Financial Officer: Amy Hood

Amy-Hood-Headshot.jpg




Executive Vice President/Chief Commercial Officer: Judson Althoff

Executive Vice President/Chief Human Resources Officer: Kathleen Hogan

Executive Vice President/Chief Marketing Officer (Marketing and Consumer Business): Chris Capossela

Executive Vice President (Business Development, Strategy and Ventures): Christopher Young

President/Vice Chair: Brad Smith

Market

Financials[2]

Key Stats

Particulars 2020 2021 2022
Total Revenue            1,43,015            1,68,088            1,98,270
 Growth Over Prior Year 13.65% 17.53% 17.96%
Gross Profit               96,937            1,15,856            1,35,620
 Margin % 67.78% 68.93% 68.40%
EBITDA               65,259               80,816               97,983
 Margin % 45.63% 48.08% 49.42%
EBIT               52,959               69,916               83,383
 Margin % 37.03% 41.59% 42.06%
Earnings from Cont. Ops.               44,281               61,271               72,738
 Margin % 30.96% 36.45% 36.69%
Net Income               44,281               61,271               72,738
 Margin % 30.96% 36.45% 36.69%
Diluted EPS Excl. Extra Items 5.76 8.05 9.65
 Growth Over Prior Year 13.83% 39.76% 19.88%

Income Statement

Particulars 2020 2021 2022
Revenue                        1,43,015                        1,68,088                        1,98,270
Other Revenue - - -
 Total Revenue                        1,43,015                        1,68,088                        1,98,270
Cost Of Goods Sold                           46,078                           52,232                           62,650
 Gross Profit                           96,937                        1,15,856                        1,35,620
Selling General & Admin Exp.                           24,709                           25,224                           27,725
R & D Exp.                           19,269                           20,716                           24,512
 Other Operating Exp., Total                           43,978                           45,940                           52,237
 Operating Income                           52,959                           69,916                           83,383
 Net Interest Exp.                                  89                              (199)                                  47
 EBT Incl. Unusual Items                           53,036                           71,102                           83,716
Income Tax Expense                             8,755                             9,831                           10,978
 Net Income                           44,281                           61,271                           72,738
Per Share Items 2020 2021 2022
Basic EPS 5.82 8.12 9.7
Weighted Avg. Basic Shares Out. 7610 7547 7496
Diluted EPS 5.76 8.05 9.65
Weighted Avg. Diluted Shares Out. 7683 7608 7540

Balance Sheet

Particulars 2020 2021 2022
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents                  13,576                  14,224                  13,931
Short Term Investments               1,22,916               1,16,032                  90,818
 Total Cash & ST Investments               1,36,492               1,30,256               1,04,749
Accounts Receivable                  32,011                  38,043                  44,261
Other Receivables - - -
 Total Receivables                  32,011                  38,043                  44,261
Inventory                    1,895                    2,636                    3,742
Other Current Assets                  11,517                  13,471                  16,932
 Total Current Assets               1,81,915               1,84,406               1,69,684
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment                  96,101               1,22,154               1,47,206
Accumulated Depreciation                (43,197)                (51,351)                (59,660)
 Net Property, Plant & Equipment                  52,904                  70,803                  87,546
Long-term Investments                    2,965                    5,984                    6,891
Goodwill                  43,351                  49,711                  67,524
Other Intangibles                    7,038                    7,800                  11,298
Accounts Receivable Long-Term                    2,700                    3,400                    3,800
Deferred Tax Assets, LT                    6,405                    7,181                  13,515
Other Long-Term Assets                    4,033                    4,494                    4,582
Total Assets               3,01,311               3,33,779               3,64,840
LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable                  12,530                  15,163                  19,000
Accrued Exp.                    7,874                  10,057                  10,661
Curr. Port. of LT Debt                    3,749                    8,072                    2,749
Curr. Port. of Leases                    2,156                    2,753                    3,288
Curr. Income Taxes Payable                    2,130                    2,174                    4,067
Unearned Revenue, Current                  36,000                  41,525                  45,538
Other Current Liabilities                    7,871                    8,913                    9,779
 Total Current Liabilities                  72,310                  88,657                  95,082
Long-Term Debt                  59,578                  50,074                  47,032
Long-Term Leases                  16,627                  21,379                  25,331
Unearned Revenue, Non-Current                    3,180                    2,616                    2,870
Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr.                       204                       198                       230
Other Non-Current Liabilities                  31,108                  28,867                  27,753
Total Liabilities               1,83,007               1,91,791               1,98,298
Common Stock                  80,552                  83,111                  86,939
Additional Paid In Capital - - -
Retained Earnings                  34,566                  57,055                  84,281
Treasury Stock - - -
Comprehensive Inc. and Other                    3,186                    1,822                  (4,678)
 Total Common Equity               1,18,304               1,41,988               1,66,542
Total Equity               1,18,304               1,41,988               1,66,542
Total Liabilities And Equity               3,01,311               3,33,779               3,64,840

Cash Flow Statement

Particulars 2020 2021 2022
Net Income                  44,281                  61,271                  72,738
Depreciation & Amort., Total                  12,300                  10,900                  14,600
(Gain) Loss On Sale Of Invest.                     (219)                  (1,249)                     (409)
Stock-Based Compensation                    5,289                    6,118                    7,502
Other Operating Activities                       507                       636                  (5,842)
Change in Acc. Receivable                  (2,577)                  (6,481)                  (6,834)
Change In Inventories                       168                     (737)                  (1,123)
Change in Acc. Payable                    3,018                    2,798                    2,943
Change in Unearned Rev.                    2,212                    4,633                    5,109
Change in Inc. Taxes                  (3,631)                  (2,309)                       696
Change in Other Net Operating Assets                     (673)                    1,160                     (345)
 Cash from Ops.                  60,675                  76,740                  89,035
Capital Expenditure                (15,441)                (20,622)                (23,886)
Cash Acquisitions                  (2,521)                  (8,909)                (22,038)
Divestitures - - -
Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt.                    6,980                    2,876                  18,438
Other Investing Activities                  (1,241)                     (922)                  (2,825)
 Cash from Investing                (12,223)                (27,577)                (30,311)
Total Debt Repaid                  (5,518)                  (3,750)                  (9,023)
Issuance of Common Stock                    1,343                    1,693                    1,841
Repurchase of Common Stock                (22,968)                (27,385)                (32,696)
Common Dividends Paid                (15,137)                (16,521)                (18,135)
Other Financing Activities                  (3,751)                  (2,523)                     (863)
 Cash from Financing                (46,031)                (48,486)                (58,876)
Foreign Exchange Rate Adj.                     (201)                       (29)                     (141)
 Net Change in Cash                    2,220                       648                     (293)

Ratios

Particulars 2020 2021 2022
Profitability
ROA 11.3% 13.8% 14.9%
ROC 17.0% 20.6% 22.2%
ROE 40.1% 47.1% 47.2%
ROCE 40.1% 47.1% 47.2%
Margin Analysis
 Gross Margin % 67.8% 68.9% 68.4%
 EBITDA Margin % 45.6% 48.1% 49.4%
 EBIT Margin % 37.0% 41.6% 42.1%
 Net Income Margin % 31.0% 36.5% 36.7%
Asset Turnover
 Total Asset Turnover 0.5 0.5 0.6
 Fixed Asset Turnover 3.0 2.7 2.5
 Accounts Receivable Turnover 4.6 4.8 4.8
 Inventory Turnover 23.3 23.1 19.6
Short Term Liquidity
 Current Ratio 2.5 2.1 1.8
 Quick Ratio 2.3 1.9 1.6
 Avg. Days Sales Out. 78.7 76.1 75.8
 Avg. Days Inventory Out. 15.7 15.8 18.6
 Avg. Days Payable Out. 87.3 95.4 97.8
 Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle 7.1 -3.5 -3.5
Long Term Solvency
 Total Debt/Equity 69.4% 57.9% 47.1%
 Total Debt/Capital 41.0% 36.7% 32.0%
 Total Liabilities/Total Assets 60.7% 57.5% 54.4%

Valuation

What is the expected return of an investment in the company?

The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 47%, which equates to an annual return of 8%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £1,470 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

What are the key assumptions used to estimate the return?

The key assumptions used to generate this prediction include the discount rate, revenue estimates and the perpetual growth rate. Considering that the company is at maturity we would typically use a lower discount rate to account for the fact we do not expect to see large scale growth in the company. Below we have detailed relevant discount rate values for companies in the varying growth stages.

Description Value Commentary
Which valuation model was used? Discounted Cash Flow Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here.

Microsoft does pays cash dividends, however the companies ability to pay these dividends is not a point of concern. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).

Which Financial forecasts were used? Avg. estimates taken from Yahoo Finance We have used experts forecasts to predict revenue over the next two years.

Growth Stage 1 (Startup)

Discount Rate(%) 30% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of Success(%) 70% Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1), the rate is suitable 70% of the time.

Growth Stage 2 (Growth)

Discount Rate(%) 15% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of Success(%) 80% Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2), the rate is suitable 80% of the time.

Growth Stage 3 (Maturity)

Discount Rate(%) 10% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of Success(%) 100% Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3), the rate is suitable 100% of the time.

Growth Stage 4 (Renewal/Decline)

Discount Rate(%) <10% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of Success(%) 100% Research suggests that for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4), the rate is suitable 100% of the time.

References

https://www.organimi.com/organizational-structures/microsoft/#:~:text=Despite%20being%20such%20a%20huge%20organization%2C%20Microsoft%20has,Vice%20President%20for%20Business%20Development%2C%20Strategy%2C%20and%20Ventures.