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== Summary ==


Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management, Oracle Advertising, and NetSuite applications suite, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle application licenses; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database, an enterprise database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, MySQL HeatWave, Internet-of-Things, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware services; and consulting and customer services. The company markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
__INDEX__


== Mission ==
== Investment Thesis ==
Oracle's mission revolves around enabling individuals and businesses to envision data from fresh vantage points, unearthing invaluable insights, and unlocking a realm of boundless possibilities. Through their comprehensive suite of software, hardware, and cloud services, the company empowers its customers to make data-driven decisions, drive innovation, and embrace a future brimming with endless opportunities. By providing cutting-edge technologies, Oracle seeks to revolutionize the way people perceive and harness data, paving the way for transformative growth and success across various industries.
We suggest adopting a long position on this stock, positioning it as an appealing option for buying due to its consistent and expanding dividend, steady growth in revenue, and the anticipated substantial growth in the cloud infrastructure sector. There are several positive aspects within the business and financial realms that we expect to yield favorable results, aspects that the investor community currently undervalues. Oracle's Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is predicted to outperform its competitors due to its superior performance and more affordable pricing. The company is also actively reinvesting significant capital into its operations, as evidenced by its noteworthy capital expenditures and escalating research and development costs. This could effectively support its strategic acquisition approach and product range expansion. Our projected price target, based on the DCF model's base case, stands at $131.43. Furthermore, additional potential for growth is indicated by a comparable company analysis, which demonstrates that the company is currently underestimated by investors relative to its peers, particularly when considering EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios<ref name=":0">John Soursos. (2023). Applied Project (MSc in Financial Technology, Imperial College Business School).</ref>.


== Business Analysis ==
== Business Analysis ==
Oracle Corporation offers a range of products and services designed to cater to the needs of enterprise information technology (IT) settings. Oracle's business is divided into four different segments: Cloud services and license support, Cloud License and on-premise license, Hardware, and Services.  
Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. Oracle's operations are categorized into four distinct business segments: Cloud services and license assistance, Cloud License and on-premise license, Hardware, and Services.


Oracle cloud services encompass a wide array of offerings, such as Oracle Software-as-a-Service and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, all of which are delivered in the form of a cloud-based model. Clients can conveniently access there services using their preferred web browser. Oracle cloud services have been strategically crafted to allow customers to swiftly implement them, resulting in reduced time to achieve innovation. These services boast a user-friendly interface, catering to both novices and seasoned users alike. They are designed to be easily maintained, minimizing the effort required for upgrades, integration, and testing. Additionally, these services can seamlessly connect across various deployment models, promoting flexibility between different IT environments. They ensure compatibility, making it effortless to migrate workloads between the Oracle Cloud and other IT setups. Moreover, these services are cost-effective, requiring lower initial customer investments. Above all, they prioritize security, adhere to standards, and offer unwavering reliability.
Oracle's range of cloud services covers a diverse spectrum of offerings, encompassing Oracle Software-as-a-Service and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, all delivered through a cloud-centric framework. Users can conveniently access these services via their preferred web browser. These Oracle cloud services have been strategically designed to expedite their implementation, leading to quicker innovation timelines. These services feature a user-friendly interface, catering to both novice and experienced users, and are engineered for simplified maintenance, reducing the effort needed for upgrades, integration, and testing. Furthermore, these services seamlessly integrate across different deployment models, enhancing flexibility among diverse IT environments. They ensure smooth compatibility, facilitating the transition of workloads between the Oracle Cloud and other IT configurations. In addition, these services are cost-efficient, requiring lower initial investments from customers. Primarily, they prioritize stringent security measures, adhere to established standards, and provide unwavering reliability.


Oracle applications technologies is a part of cloud services and license support business segment. It includes the company's SaaS offerings, which are used from a large number of corporations worldwide, as well as the license support, which is generally purchased by all of Oracle's customers. The support offerings provided by the company serve to safeguard and enhance the investments made by its customers in Oracle applications. These offerings include proactive and personalized support services, such as Oracle Lifetime Support, as well as unspecified license enhancements and upgrades throughout the support period. They are designed to ensure that customers receive comprehensive assistance and protection for their Oracle products, optimizing the value and longevity of their investments. Oracle applications technologies and license support revenues accounted for 47%, 42%, and 41% of the total cloud services and license support revenues during years 2023, 2022, and 2021.  
Oracle Applications Technologies form an integral component of the cloud services and license support business division. This sector encompasses the company's Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, widely adopted by numerous global corporations, along with license support that is typically acquired by all Oracle customers. These support solutions offered by the company play a crucial role in safeguarding and augmenting the investments made by its clientele in Oracle applications. Among these provisions are proactive and personalized support services, notably Oracle Lifetime Support, in addition to unspecified license improvements and updates during the support duration. These services are meticulously crafted to ensure that customers receive all-encompassing aid and protection for their Oracle products, ultimately enhancing the value and lifespan of their investments. Over the years 2023, 2022, and 2021, revenues from Oracle Applications Technologies and license support contributed 47%, 42%, and 41%, respectively, to the overall cloud services and license support revenues.


Oracle offers its infrastructure technologies to customers both through its cloud and license business segment and its hardware business segment. Within the company's cloud and license business segment, the infrastructure technologies comprise the renowned Oracle Database, widely recognized as the most popular enterprise database globally. Additionally, it includes Java, which stands as the most widely-used software development language in the computer industry, along with various middleware tools and development resources. These infrastructure technologies can be accessed through subscription to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) offerings or via the purchase of a license, along with related license support, giving customers the option to run these technologies within the Oracle Cloud, as part of on-premise cloud services, or in other customer IT environments. The company's infrastructure cloud services and license support revenues represented 53%, 58% and 59% of total cloud services and license support revenues during years 2023, 2022 and 2021.  
Oracle provides its infrastructure technologies to clients through two main avenues: the cloud and license business segment, as well as the hardware business segment. Within the cloud and license business category, these infrastructure technologies encompass the renowned Oracle Database, acknowledged globally as the premier enterprise database solution. Furthermore, it encompasses Java, which holds the distinction of being the most widely utilized software development language in the computer industry. This portfolio also encompasses an array of middleware tools and development resources. These infrastructure technologies are accessible either through subscription to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) offerings or via the acquisition of licenses, accompanied by associated license support. This affords customers the flexibility to deploy these technologies within the Oracle Cloud, integrate them into on-premise cloud services, or implement them within their own IT environments. Notably, the company's revenue from infrastructure cloud services and license support represented 53%, 58%, and 59% of total cloud services and license support earnings for the years 2023, 2022, and 2021 respectively.


Oracle infrastructure technologies also includes products offered through the company's hardware business segments. This part of the business is divided into:  
The range of Oracle's infrastructure technologies also encompasses products available via the corporation's hardware business sections. This part of the business is divided into:


* Oracle servers (e.g. servers consisting of Oracle SPARC microprocessor or x86 microprocessor)
* Oracle servers (e.g. servers consisting of Oracle SPARC microprocessor or x86 microprocessor)
Line 22: Line 21:
* Oracle operating systems (e.g. Oracle Linux, Oracle Solaris)
* Oracle operating systems (e.g. Oracle Linux, Oracle Solaris)
* Oracle hardware support (provides support for oracle systems though software updates of the hardware products, repairs, and technical support)
* Oracle hardware support (provides support for oracle systems though software updates of the hardware products, repairs, and technical support)
 
The fourth business segment, known as Oracle Services, delivers advisory and training services to assist customers in optimizing the use of Oracle's applications and infrastructure technologies<ref>Oracle. (2023). Annual Report: 2023.[https://s23.q4cdn.com/440135859/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/10-K.pdf]</ref>.
The fourth business segment, which is Oracle Services, provides consultation and training to help customers effectively utilize Oracle's applications and infrastructure technologies.  


The revenue contribution for of the four business segments can be seen in the following table:  
The revenue contribution for of the four business segments can be seen in the following table:  
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|+
|+
!Business Segment
!Business Segment
!Revenue (2023)
!Revenue (in $ millions)
!% of Total Revenue
!% of total revenue
|-
|-
|Cloud services and license support
|Cloud services and license support
Line 52: Line 50:
Oracle's widely used SaaS products include, among others:
Oracle's widely used SaaS products include, among others:


* Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), which is a comprehensive and unified ERP solution that aims to enhance organizational decision-making and workforce efficiency while streamlining back-office operations. It is designed to be a fully integrated and global platform, enabling businesses to benefit from a shared data and security model, along with a consistent user interface. By adopting Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, organizations can optimize their processes and achieve improved productivity on a global scale.
Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), which is a comprehensive and unified ERP solution that aims to enhance organizational decision-making and workforce efficiency while streamlining back-office operations. It is designed to be a fully integrated and global platform, enabling businesses to benefit from a shared data and security model, along with a consistent user interface. By adopting Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, organizations can optimize their processes and achieve improved productivity on a global scale.
* Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), which is a purpose-built solution aimed at evaluating financial performance, facilitating precise and flexible financial planning, enhancing the efficiency of financial close and consolidation procedures, simplifying account reconciliation, and meeting the reporting needs of organizations.
 
* Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management (SCM), which is a tailored offering intended to support organizations in establishing, enhancing, and digitalizing their supply chains while enabling swift product innovation.
Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), which is a purpose-built solution aimed at evaluating financial performance, facilitating precise and flexible financial planning, enhancing the efficiency of financial close and consolidation procedures, simplifying account reconciliation, and meeting the reporting needs of organizations.
* Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), which is a specialized solution crafted to assist organizations in sourcing, nurturing, and retaining their workforce.
 
* Oracle Cerner healthcare, which is a purpose-built system intended to empower healthcare professionals in providing enhanced medical services to patients.
Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management (SCM), which is a tailored offering intended to support organizations in establishing, enhancing, and digitalizing their supply chains while enabling swift product innovation.
 
Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), which is a specialized solution crafted to assist organizations in sourcing, nurturing, and retaining their workforce.


Oracle's widely used infrastructure products include, among others:
Oracle Cerner healthcare, which is a purpose-built system intended to empower healthcare professionals in providing enhanced medical services to patients.


Well-known databases, such as Oracle Database and MySQL, as well as Oracle Autonomous Database, which relies heavily on machine-learning in order to eliminate human errors that otherwise would go unnoticed.
Oracle's extensively utilized infrastructure offerings encompass a variety of products, including: Familiar databases like Oracle Database and MySQL, alongside Oracle Autonomous Database, which heavily leverages machine learning to detect and rectify human errors that might otherwise remain unnoticed.


== Market ==
== Market ==


=== Total Addressable Market (TAM) ===
=== '''Total Addressable Market (TAM)''' ===
The total addressable market (TAM) for Oracle is defined as the global information technology market. According to research reports, the global information technology market grew from $8,179 billion in 2022 to $8,852 in 2023 at a CAGR of 8.2%. In 2027, the market value is expected to be around $11,995 billion, growing at a CAGR of 7.9%. The main driver behind this projected growth is going to be cloud computing.
The total addressable market (TAM) for Oracle is characterized as the worldwide information technology industry. As per research reports, the global information technology sector expanded from $8,179 billion in 2022 to $8,852 billion in 2023, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%. By 2027, it is anticipated that the market valuation will reach approximately $11,995 billion, demonstrating a CAGR of 7.9%. The predominant catalyst fueling this anticipated expansion is poised to be cloud computing.


=== Serviceable Available Market (SAM) ===
=== '''Serviceable Available Market (SAM)''' ===
The serviceable available market (SAM) for Oracle is defined as the global cloud computing market. According to research reports, the cloud computing market is expected to climb from $581 billion in 2023 to $1,243.42 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 16.4%. This is due to technology disruption in field such as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Furthermore, another reason for this type of growth is the pandemic. After the end of the pandemic, a percentage of people are still working from home, thereby making cloud computing essential for every day tasks.
The serviceable available market (SAM) encompassing Oracle pertains to the worldwide arena of cloud computing. As indicated by research reports, the cloud computing market is projected to escalate from $581 billion in 2023 to reach $1,243.42 billion by 2028, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4%. This acceleration can be attributed to technological disruptions, particularly in areas like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Moreover, another contributing factor to this growth trajectory is the impact of the pandemic. Even post-pandemic, a portion of individuals continues to work remotely, thereby underscoring the indispensability of cloud computing for daily operations.


=== Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) ===
=== '''Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)''' ===
The cloud computing market share of Oracle Corporation sits around 2%. The market share of the company in the SaaS segment is close to 5%, whereas in the IaaS segment is insignificant, according to Statista. There is a huge opportunity for Oracle to raise its Infrastructure as a Service market share in the following years, given the strategic alliances with Intel and Red Hat, as well as the adoption from companies such as Uber, FedEx, Toyota and Zoom among others. Oracle's OCI is expected to be widely adopted by several other companies looking to train AI models like ChatGPT, because of its low cost (compared with competitors) and high value. Therefore, the company is expected to erode the market share of its competitors and increase its own moving forward. Since it has a significant market share in the SaaS segment, increasing its market share in the IaaS segment is expected to double its total cloud cloud computing market share in the next 5 years (resulting in market share of 5% approximately).
Oracle Corporation currently holds a share of approximately 2% in the cloud computing market. The company's market presence in the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector stands at around 4%, while its influence in the Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment is limited (Statista, 2022). There exists substantial potential for Oracle to elevate its standing in the Infrastructure as a Service domain over the forthcoming years, mainly fueled by strategic partnerships with Intel and Red Hat, coupled with endorsements from notable entities like Uber, FedEx, Toyota, and Zoom, among others. With Oracle's OCI demonstrating cost-effectiveness (in comparison to its counterparts) and high value, it's anticipated to be widely adopted by various companies aiming to develop AI models such as ChatGPT. As a result, the company is poised to erode the market share of its rivals while concurrently increasing its own. Given its substantial market share in the SaaS segment, an expansion in the IaaS market share is projected to potentially double Oracle's overall cloud computing market share within the upcoming 5 years, potentially reaching around 5%.


== Competition ==
== Competition ==
The global cloud computing market is a really fragmented market. As such, there is fierce competition among established companies, such as Amazon, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, Salesforce, as well as start-up companies that are looking for ways to innovate and gain market share. This increasing competition along with the AI disruption is expected to increase market share, as mentioned above. Consequently, Oracle faces intense competition from both established and newly created companies. Since Oracle has an aggressive acquisition policy and is looking to expand in new areas, such as healthcare software (i.e. he acquired Cerner which is a healthcare software provider), it is going to face even broader competitors (e.g. Epic Systems Corporation, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc., Arcadia Solutions, athenahealth, Inc. and InterSystems Corporation, among others). Below is a detailed analysis of the most important competitors of Oracle Corporation:
 
 
The global landscape of cloud computing is characterized by its fragmentation, leading to a landscape of intense rivalry. Established entities like Amazon, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, and Salesforce engage in fierce competition, alongside emerging startups that strive to innovate and secure their share of the market. Consequently, Oracle finds itself in the midst of rigorous competition from both established industry players and freshly established firms. Given Oracle's assertive approach to acquisitions and its pursuit of expansion into novel domains like healthcare software (as evident in its acquisition of Cerner, a healthcare software provider), the range of its competitors is poised to expand further. This includes a broader spectrum of rivals such as Epic Systems Corporation, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc., Arcadia Solutions, athenahealth, Inc., and InterSystems Corporation, among others. Below is a detailed analysis of the most important competitors of Oracle Corporation<ref name=":0" />:
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
!Company
!Company
!Analysis
!Description
!Competition
!Competition
!Market Cap
!Market Capitalization
|-
|-
|Amazon
|Amazon
|AWS, a subsidiary of Amazon, is the leading cloud service providers globally, offering a comprehensive suite of cloud computing services.
|Amazon's subsidiary, AWS, stands as the foremost global provider of cloud services, presenting an extensive range of cloud computing solutions.
|Oracle Cloud competes directly with AWS in the cloud infrastructure and platform services market. Both companies vie for enterprises looking to leverage cloud capabilities for scalability, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness.
|In the market for cloud infrastructure and platform services, Oracle Cloud directly rivals AWS. These two corporations compete to attract enterprises seeking to harness the benefits of cloud technology for scalability, adaptability, and cost-efficiency.
|$1,357,445 mil.
|$1,450,366 mil.
|-
|-
|Microsoft
|Microsoft
|Microsoft is a global technology powerhouse with a wide array of products and services. While Oracle and Microsoft compete in some areas, their primary focus areas are different. Microsoft is a major player in operating systems, cloud services, productivity software (Office Suite), gaming (Xbox), and collaboration tools (Microsoft Teams).
|A worldwide technology giant, Microsoft offers a diverse range of products and services. While Oracle and Microsoft vie in certain domains, their main areas of emphasis diverge. Microsoft holds a significant role in operating systems, cloud solutions, productivity applications (Office Suite), gaming (Xbox), and collaboration tools (Microsoft Teams).
|Microsoft Azure competes directly with Oracle Cloud in the cloud computing market. Both companies offer IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS solutions. Additionally, Microsoft's Power Platform competes with Oracle's application development and low-code platforms.
|In the domain of cloud computing, Microsoft Azure directly contends with Oracle Cloud. Both enterprises provide solutions in Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Software as a Service (SaaS). Moreover, Microsoft's Power Platform competes with Oracle's platforms for application development and low-code solutions.
|$2,502,651 mil.
|$2,407,540 mil.
|-
|-
|IBM
|IBM
|IBM is a technology and consulting company with a long-established presence in various sectors, including cloud services, artificial intelligence, and enterprise solutions.
|IBM is a technology and advisory firm with a well-established history in multiple industries, encompassing fields like cloud offerings, artificial intelligence, and enterprise solutions.
|While both companies have a history of offering enterprise software solutions, they compete in areas like cloud services and database management systems. IBM Cloud competes with Oracle Cloud, and IBM Db2 competes with Oracle Database.
|Although both corporations have a track record of providing business software solutions, their rivalry extends to domains such as cloud services and the management of database systems. IBM's cloud service, IBM Cloud, goes head-to-head with Oracle Cloud, and IBM's database system, Db2, competes directly with Oracle Database.
|$129,918 mil.
|$129,280 mil.
|-
|-
|Salesforce
|Salesforce
|Salesforce is a dominant force in the customer relationship management (CRM) market. It provides cloud-based solutions to manage sales, marketing, and customer service.
|Salesforce holds a prominent position in the customer relationship management (CRM) industry. It delivers cloud-centric solutions for overseeing sales, marketing, and customer service operations.
|Oracle competes with Salesforce through its Oracle CRM Cloud offering. Both companies strive to capture market share in the rapidly growing CRM space, offering a range of features and customization options to meet customer needs.
|Oracle directly challenges Salesforce with its Oracle CRM Cloud product. These two enterprises are in competition to secure their portion of the swiftly expanding Customer Relationship Management (CRM) arena, presenting a variety of functionalities and possibilities for customization to cater to the demands of their customers.
|$222,627 mil.
|$206,546 mil.
|-
|-
|SAP
|SAP
|SAP is a leading enterprise software company known for its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and other business applications. It specializes in helping businesses manage various processes, including finance, supply chain, and human resources.
|SAP is a leading enterprise software company known for its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and other business applications. Its expertise lies in aiding companies in the management of diverse operations, encompassing finance, supply chain, and human resources.
|Both Oracle and SAP are major players in the ERP space. They compete for enterprise customers seeking robust and integrated solutions for managing business operations. Their ERP offerings, Oracle ERP Cloud and SAP S/4HANA, often go head-to-head in the market.
|Oracle and SAP are significant contenders in the realm of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). They vie for the attention of corporate clients in search of comprehensive and unified answers to oversee their business activities. Frequently, their ERP products, namely Oracle ERP Cloud and SAP S/4HANA, directly compete against each other within the market.
|$159,181 mil.
|$162,318 mil.
|-
|-
|Workday
|Workday
|Workday is a cloud-based enterprise software company that specializes in providing human capital management (HCM) and financial management solutions for businesses and organizations.  
|Workday is a company that offers enterprise software through cloud-based services, focusing on delivering solutions for managing human capital (HCM) and financial management tailored to businesses and organizations.
|Workday directly competes with Oracle HCM Cloud in the HCM space. Oracle's HCM Cloud also offers a comprehensive suite of cloud-based HR and talent management applications, aiming to cater to the needs of large enterprises and organizations.
|Workday directly competes with Oracle HCM Cloud in the HCM space. Oracle's HCM Cloud similarly presents a comprehensive array of cloud-driven human resources and talent management software, targeting the requirements of sizeable corporations and institutions.
|$60,782
|$59,401 mil.
|}
 
== Financials ==
 
=== Historic and projected financial statements ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Income Statement
|'''2021A'''
|'''2022A'''
|'''2023A'''
|'''2024P'''
|'''2025P'''
|'''2026P'''
|'''2027P'''
|'''2028P'''
|-
|'''Total revenues'''
|'''40,479'''
|'''42,440'''
|'''49,954'''
|'''53,950'''
|'''58,266'''
|'''62,928'''
|'''67,962'''
|'''73,399'''
|-
|'''Cost of revenues'''
|'''(7,855)'''
|'''(8,877)'''
|'''(13,564)'''
|'''(14,649)'''
|'''(15,821)'''
|'''(17,087)'''
|'''(18,454)'''
|'''(19,930)'''
|-
|Sales and marketing
|(7,682)
|(8,047)
|(8,833)
|(10,003)
|(10,803)
|(11,667)
|(12,600)
|(13,608)
|-
|R&D
|(6,527)
|(7,219)
|(8,623)
|(9,063)
|(9,788)
|(10,571)
|(11,417)
|(12,330)
|-
|G&A
|(1,254)
|(1,317)
|(1,579)
|(1,684)
|(1,818)
|(1,964)
|(2,121)
|(2,291)
|-
|Amortization of intangible assets
|(1,379)
|(1,150)
|(3,582)
|(2,994)
|(2,283)
|(1,620)
|(664)
|(635)
|-
|Acquisition related and other
|(138)
|(4,713)
|(190)
|(190)
|(190)
|(190)
|(190)
|(190)
|-
|Restructuring
|(431)
|(191)
|(490)
|(490)
|(490)
|(490)
|(490)
|(490)
|-
|Total operating expenses
|(25,266)
|(31,514)
|(36,861)
|(39,072)
|(41,193)
|(43,589)
|(45,936)
|(49,474)
|-
|'''Operating income (EBIT)'''
|'''15,213'''
|'''10,926'''
|'''13,093'''
|'''14,878'''
|'''17,073'''
|'''19,339'''
|'''22,026'''
|'''23,925'''
|-
|Interest expense
|(2496)
|(2755)
|(3505)
|(3,716)
|(3,585)
|(3,555)
|(3,503)
|(3,327)
|-
|Interest income
|101
|94
|285
|196
|60
|20
|21
|22
|-
|Non-operating (expenses)  income, net
|181
|(616)
|(747)
|(747)
|(747)
|(747)
|(747)
|(747)
|-
|Income before taxes
|12,999
|7,649
|9,126
|10,612
|12,801
|15,057
|17,797
|19,873
|-
|Provision for benefit from  income taxes
|747
|(932)
|(623)
|(1,009)
|(1,217)
|(1,431)
|(1,692)
|(1,889)
|-
|'''Net income'''
|'''13,746'''
|'''6,717'''
|'''8,503'''
|'''9,603'''
|'''11,585'''
|'''13,625'''
|'''16,106'''
|'''17,984'''
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Balance Sheet
|'''2022A'''
|'''2023A'''
|'''2024P'''
|'''2025P'''
|'''2026P'''
|'''2027P'''
|'''2028P'''
|-
|Current assets:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Cash, cash equivalents, marketable  securities
|21,902
|10,187
|3,860
|748
|888
|1,039
|1,202
|-
|Trade receivables, net of allowances for credit losses of $428 and $362 as of May  31, 2023 and May 31, 2022, respectively
|5,953
|6,915
|7,468
|8,066
|8,711
|9,408
|10,160
|-
|Prepaid expenses and other current assets
|3,778
|3,902
|4,214
|4,551
|4,915
|5,309
|5,733
|-
|'''Total current assets'''
|'''31,633'''
|'''21,004'''
|'''15,542'''
|'''13,365'''
|'''14,514'''
|'''15,755'''
|'''17,096'''
|-
|Non-current assets:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Property, plant and equipment, net
|9,716
|17,069
|22,131
|26,726
|30,854
|33,751
|33,923
|-
|Intangible assets, net
|1,440
|9,837
|10,624
|11,474
|12,392
|13,383
|14,454
|-
|Goodwill, net
|43,811
|62,261
|67,242
|72,621
|78,431
|84,705
|91,482
|-
|Deferred tax assets
|12,782
|12,226
|12,226
|12,226
|12,226
|12,226
|12,226
|-
|Other non-current assets
|9,915
|11,987
|12,946
|13,982
|15,100
|16,308
|17,613
|-
|Total non-current assets
|77,664
|113,380
|125,168
|137,029
|149,003
|160,374
|169,697
|-
|'''Total assets'''
|'''109,297'''
|'''134,384'''
|'''140,710'''
|'''150,394'''
|'''163,517'''
|'''176,129'''
|'''186,793'''
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Current liabilities:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Commercial paper/revolver
|0
|563
|0
|7,325
|12,307
|14,622
|18,406
|-
|Accounts payable
|1,317
|1,204
|1,300
|1,404
|1,517
|1,638
|1,769
|-
|Accrued compensation and related benefits
|1,944
|2,053
|2,217
|2,395
|2,586
|2,793
|3,017
|-
|Deferred revenues
|8,357
|8,970
|9,688
|10,463
|11,300
|12,204
|13,180
|-
|Other current liabilities
|4,144
|6,802
|7,346
|7,934
|8,569
|9,254
|9,994
|-
|'''Total current liabilities'''
|'''15,762'''
|'''19,592'''
|'''20,551'''
|'''29,520'''
|'''36,279'''
|'''40,510'''
|'''46,366'''
|-
|Non-current liabilities:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Long-term debt, plus current portion
|75,859
|89,918
|85,855
|75,855
|70,161
|64,911
|54,741
|-
|Income taxes payable
|12,210
|11,077
|11,963
|12,920
|13,954
|15,070
|16,276
|-
|Deferred tax liabilities
|6,031
|5,772
|5,772
|5,772
|5,772
|5,772
|5,772
|-
|Other non-current liabilities
|5,203
|6,469
|6,987
|7,545
|8,149
|8,801
|9,505
|-
|'''Total non-current liabilities'''
|'''99,303'''
|'''113,236'''
|'''110,577'''
|'''102,093'''
|'''98,036'''
|'''94,554'''
|'''86,294'''
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Oracle Corporation stockholders' equity (deficit):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Preferred stock, $0.01 par value—authorized: 1.0 shares; outstanding: none
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Common stock, $0.01 par value and additional paid in capital—authorized: 11,000  shares; outstanding: 2,713 shares and 2,665 shares as of May 31, 2023 and  2022, respectively
|26,808
|30,215
|34,046
|38,183
|42,651
|47,477
|52,689
|-
|Accumulated deficit
|(31,336)
|(27,620)
|(23,424)
|(18,363)
|(12,410)
|(5,373)
|2,484
|-
|Accumulated other comprehensive loss
|(1,692)
|(1,522)
|(1,522)
|(1,522)
|(1,522)
|(1,522)
|(1,522)
|-
|Total Oracle Corporation stockholders' equity (deficit)
|(6,220)
|1,073
|9,099
|18,298
|28,719
|40,582
|53,651
|-
|Noncontrolling interests
|452
|483
|483
|483
|483
|483
|483
|-
|'''Total stockholders' equity (deficit)'''
|'''(5,768)'''
|'''1,556'''
|'''9,582'''
|'''18,781'''
|'''29,202'''
|'''41,065'''
|'''54,134'''
|-
|'''Total liabilities and stockholders' equity (deficit)'''
|'''109,297'''
|'''134,384'''
|'''140,710'''
|'''150,394'''
|'''163,517'''
|'''176,129'''
|'''186,793'''
|}
|}
__INDEX__
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|'''Cash Flow Statement'''
|'''2024P'''
|'''2025P'''
|'''2026P'''
|'''2027P'''
|'''2028P'''
|-
|Net income
|9,603
|11,585
|13,625
|16,106
|17,984
|-
|Depreciation and amortization
|6,250
|5,760
|5,395
|4,767
|4,974
|-
|Stock based compensation
|3,831
|4,137
|4,468
|4,826
|5,212
|-
|Decreases / (Increases) in working  capital assets
|(865)
|(935)
|(1,009)
|(1,090)
|(1,177)
|-
|Increases / (Decreases) in working  capital liabilities
|1,522
|1,644
|1,776
|1,918
|2,071
|-
|Other non current assets
|(9,721)
|(9,548)
|(9,466)
|(9,138)
|(9,787)
|-
|Other non current liabilities
|1,404
|1,516
|1,637
|1,768
|1,910
|-
|Cash from operating activities
|12,023
|14,160
|16,426
|19,156
|21,187
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Capital expenditures
|(8,317)
|(8,073)
|(7,903)
|(7,000)
|(4,511)
|-
|Cash from investing activities
|(8,317)
|(8,073)
|(7,903)
|(7,000)
|(4,511)
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Long term debt
|(4,063)
|(10,000)
|(5,694)
|(5,250)
|(10,170)
|-
|Revolver
|(563)
|7,325
|4,983
|2,314
|3,784
|-
|Share repurchases
|(1,265)
|(1,526)
|(1,795)
|(2,121)
|(2,369)
|-
|Common dividends
|(4,143)
|(4,997)
|(5,878)
|(6,948)
|(7,758)
|-
|Cash from financing activities
|(10,034)
|(9,198)
|(8,384)
|(12,005)
|(16,513)
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Net change in cash during  period
|(6,327)
|(3,112)
|140
|151
|163
|}
 
=== Ratios ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|
|'''2021A'''
|'''2022A'''
|'''2023A'''
|-
|'''Profitability ratios'''
|
|
|
|-
|Gross profit
|81%
|79%
|73%
|-
|Operating profit margin
|38%
|26%
|26%
|-
|Net profit margin
|34%
|16%
|17%
|-
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Liquidity ratios'''
|
|
|
|-
|Current ratio
|
|2.01
|1.07
|-
|Quick ratio
|
|1.77
|0.87
|-
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Leverage ratios'''
|
|
|
|-
|Debt to Assets
|
|69%
|67%
|-
|Debt to Equity
|
| -1315%
|5815%
|-
|Debt to Capital
|
|108%
|98%
|-
|Interest coverage ratio
|
|726%
|510%
|-
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Efficiency ratios'''
|
|
|
|-
|Asset turnover ratio
|
|39%
|37%
|-
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Performance ratios'''
|
|
|
|-
|Return on equity (ROE)
|
| -116%
|546%
|-
|Return on assets (ROA)
|
|6%
|6%
|-
|Return on invested capital (ROIC)
|
|20%
|15%
|-
|Return on capital employed (ROCE)
|
|10%
|11%
|}
 
== DCF Valuation ==
Our $131.43 price target represents our DCF valuation on Oracle over the next 5 years. A discount rate of 7.46% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% were used in order to calculate discounted cash flows and terminal value<ref name=":0" />. The discount rate was calculated using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. The cost of equity was calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A beta of 0.85, a market risk premium of 5%<ref>Damodaran. (2023). Country Default Spread and Risk Premiums. [https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html]</ref> and a risk-free rate of 4.16% were used in the CAPM calculation. This target price shows a potential upside of around 16.25% when compared to the current market price. DCF is an assumption-based model and the accuracy of those assumptions can significantly impact the valuation results. The assumptions used are included in the following table:
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Variable
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Revenue growth (% change)
|8%
|The base case scenario assumes a revenue growth rate of 8%, given that Oracle is an established company and sell-side analysts provided this estimate (Capital IQ, 2023). Our bullish scenario assumes a revenue growth rate of 10%, whereas our bearish case assumes a revenue growth rate of 6%.
|-
|Gross profit margin
|73%
|The last observation of gross margin was used. Our bullish scenario assumes a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, whereas our bearish case scenario assumes a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
|-
|Sales & Marketing
|19%
|The historical average of Sales & Marketing was used.
|-
|R&D
|17%
|The historical average of R&D was used.
|-
|G&A
|3%
|The historical average of G&A was used.
|-
|Tax rate
|10%
|The historical average of tax rate was used. Our bullish scenario assumes a tax rate of 7%, whereas our bearish case assumes a tax rate of 13%.
|-
|Capital Expenditures
|$8,317 in 2024P, $8,073 in 2025P, $7,903 in 2026P, $7,000 in 2027P, $4,511 in 2028P
|For years 2024, 2025, 2026 the projections of sell-side analysts were used (Capital IQ, 2023). Subjective assumption were used for years 2027, 2028. Thereafter, it is anticipated that the capital expenses will gradually decrease to their previous levels. This is because Oracle will probably be unable to sustain its capital expenditures at such elevated rates due to substantial debt repayments and limited cash reserves.
|}
 
== Sensitivity Analysis ==
[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-23 1.jpg|thumb|354x354px|Table 1]]
Sensitivity analysis provides valuable insights into the potential outcomes and risks associated with models which are based on a wide range of assumptions. As such, it is crucial to be implemented for models, such as the DCF.
Two significant variables that have an important impact in our DCF valuation were revenue growth rate and WACC. As it is widely known, when the WACC increases, the valuation decreases as they are negatively related based on the NPV formula. For example, in the first table, when the WACC increases by only 0.5%, the intrinsic value per share falls by approximately $17. If we increase it by another 0.5%, the intrinsic value per share drops to $100.61. Revenue growth is an essential part of the valuation as well, since it significantly impacts the free cash flow of Oracle. Under our bearish case (revenue growth rate equals 6%), Oracle's share is worth $115.81, whereas under our bullish case (revenue growth rate equals 10%) Oracle's share is worth $148.31.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-23 2.jpg|thumb|355x355px|Table 2]]
The second table includes another variable that can potentially alter our valuation result a lot, which is the perpetual growth rate. Here, under our base case, the company is expected to grow by 3% in perpetuity. This figure is most of the times tied up with the global GPD growth. However, it is worth noting that a perpetually growing economy is an idealized assumption and may not reflect the reality of economic cycles and fluctuations.
 
== Comparable Company Analysis ==
Our second method for valuing Oracle was comparable company analysis. Price/earnings, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, and Enterprise Value/Revenue ratios were used. The companies selected were the direct competitors, as mentioned above.
[[File:Screenshot 2023-08-23 3.jpg|thumb|994x994px|Comparables table|left]]
 
To begin, the EV/Sales metric was employed. This involved taking the revenue from the past year and multiplying it by the median EV/Sales ratio of competing firms. As a result, the estimated enterprise value stood at $278,895 million. After accounting for net debt, it became evident that the equity value equated to $193,752 million or $71.38 per share. Consequently, based on this ratio, the company appears to be overvalued compared to its peers.
 
Moving on, the EV/EBITDA ratio was employed. By taking the EBITDA over the last 12 months and multiplying it by the median EV/EBITDA ratio among rivals, the implied enterprise value reached $474,443 million. Deducting net debt led us to an equity value of $389,300 million. Dividing this amount by the outstanding shares yielded an implied value of $143.43 per share. Thus, according to this multiple, the company seems to be undervalued compared to its industry counterparts.
 
Lastly, the P/E ratio was brought into consideration. Earnings from the past year were multiplied by the median P/E ratio of the six comparable companies. The estimated equity value stood at $412,878 million. Dividing this sum by the total outstanding shares of 2,714 million resulted in a fair share value of $152.11. Once again, the company's valuation appears to be lower  when compared to its peers. These outcomes suggest that investors might not be fully acknowledging the company's potential for earnings or growth relative to its competitors, leading to a lower valuation at present.
 
== Risks ==
'''Operational risk'''
 
Given the cloud-based nature of many of Oracle's services, operational risk becomes a significant consideration. Cloud services are reliant on stable and resilient infrastructure. Any technical issues, outages, or disruptions in data centers or networks could lead to service downtime and impact customer satisfaction. Furthermore, Oracle's cloud services need to be scalable and able to handle increased demand. Inadequate infrastructure to accommodate growth or surges in usage could result in performance issues and customer dissatisfaction.
 
'''Share repurchase risk'''
 
There is no guarantee that Oracle will keep buying back common stock like he did in the previous 3 years. In fact, it is expected from the company to suspend or reduce its share repurchase program given that it resulted in equity deficit in 2022. Furthermore, the company stated in its annual report that it is not going to increase its share repurchases until their gross debt is reduced below some unspecified level.
 
'''Reputational risk'''
 
Oracle holds vast amounts of sensitive data from its customers. Any breach of this data could lead to significant reputational damage, legal consequences, and loss of customer trust. In case customers lose their trust, they may stop buying products or continue using them. This could result in a revenue loss and high lawsuit expenses.
 
'''Acquisitions-related risks'''
 
Oracle has followed an aggressive acquisition strategy throughout the years. That can be seen by the large number of acquisitions that have been completed, such as Cerner, Adi Insights, FOEX, Federos, FarApp, among others. An aggressive acquisition strategy, while potentially beneficial in expanding a company's market presence and diversifying its offerings, also comes with several risks. The most important risk is the challenge of integrating the products and workforce of all these companies into Oracle's existing operations. Poor integration can lead to inefficiencies and cultural clashes.
 
'''Leverage levels'''
 
The company's debt level is really high compared to its competitors, which can be seen by its debt to equity and debt to capital ratios. This is a result of its share repurchase program as well as the aggressive acquisition strategy which involves a lot of debt. The company might have to suspend its repurchase program or reduce its capital expenditures in order to be able to reduce its debt levels. S&P has assigned a credit rating of BBB, which is low when compared to its competitors (e.g. Microsoft, Salesforce). Such a low credit rating can potentially lead to higher cost of debt moving forward<ref name=":0" />.
 
 
<references />

Latest revision as of 20:35, 23 August 2023


Investment ThesisEdit

We suggest adopting a long position on this stock, positioning it as an appealing option for buying due to its consistent and expanding dividend, steady growth in revenue, and the anticipated substantial growth in the cloud infrastructure sector. There are several positive aspects within the business and financial realms that we expect to yield favorable results, aspects that the investor community currently undervalues. Oracle's Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is predicted to outperform its competitors due to its superior performance and more affordable pricing. The company is also actively reinvesting significant capital into its operations, as evidenced by its noteworthy capital expenditures and escalating research and development costs. This could effectively support its strategic acquisition approach and product range expansion. Our projected price target, based on the DCF model's base case, stands at $131.43. Furthermore, additional potential for growth is indicated by a comparable company analysis, which demonstrates that the company is currently underestimated by investors relative to its peers, particularly when considering EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios[1].

Business AnalysisEdit

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. Oracle's operations are categorized into four distinct business segments: Cloud services and license assistance, Cloud License and on-premise license, Hardware, and Services.

Oracle's range of cloud services covers a diverse spectrum of offerings, encompassing Oracle Software-as-a-Service and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, all delivered through a cloud-centric framework. Users can conveniently access these services via their preferred web browser. These Oracle cloud services have been strategically designed to expedite their implementation, leading to quicker innovation timelines. These services feature a user-friendly interface, catering to both novice and experienced users, and are engineered for simplified maintenance, reducing the effort needed for upgrades, integration, and testing. Furthermore, these services seamlessly integrate across different deployment models, enhancing flexibility among diverse IT environments. They ensure smooth compatibility, facilitating the transition of workloads between the Oracle Cloud and other IT configurations. In addition, these services are cost-efficient, requiring lower initial investments from customers. Primarily, they prioritize stringent security measures, adhere to established standards, and provide unwavering reliability.

Oracle Applications Technologies form an integral component of the cloud services and license support business division. This sector encompasses the company's Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, widely adopted by numerous global corporations, along with license support that is typically acquired by all Oracle customers. These support solutions offered by the company play a crucial role in safeguarding and augmenting the investments made by its clientele in Oracle applications. Among these provisions are proactive and personalized support services, notably Oracle Lifetime Support, in addition to unspecified license improvements and updates during the support duration. These services are meticulously crafted to ensure that customers receive all-encompassing aid and protection for their Oracle products, ultimately enhancing the value and lifespan of their investments. Over the years 2023, 2022, and 2021, revenues from Oracle Applications Technologies and license support contributed 47%, 42%, and 41%, respectively, to the overall cloud services and license support revenues.

Oracle provides its infrastructure technologies to clients through two main avenues: the cloud and license business segment, as well as the hardware business segment. Within the cloud and license business category, these infrastructure technologies encompass the renowned Oracle Database, acknowledged globally as the premier enterprise database solution. Furthermore, it encompasses Java, which holds the distinction of being the most widely utilized software development language in the computer industry. This portfolio also encompasses an array of middleware tools and development resources. These infrastructure technologies are accessible either through subscription to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) offerings or via the acquisition of licenses, accompanied by associated license support. This affords customers the flexibility to deploy these technologies within the Oracle Cloud, integrate them into on-premise cloud services, or implement them within their own IT environments. Notably, the company's revenue from infrastructure cloud services and license support represented 53%, 58%, and 59% of total cloud services and license support earnings for the years 2023, 2022, and 2021 respectively.

The range of Oracle's infrastructure technologies also encompasses products available via the corporation's hardware business sections. This part of the business is divided into:

  • Oracle servers (e.g. servers consisting of Oracle SPARC microprocessor or x86 microprocessor)
  • Oracle storage
  • Oracle industry-specific hardware offerings (products designed for particular industries such as food and beverage, hotel and retail)
  • Oracle operating systems (e.g. Oracle Linux, Oracle Solaris)
  • Oracle hardware support (provides support for oracle systems though software updates of the hardware products, repairs, and technical support)

The fourth business segment, known as Oracle Services, delivers advisory and training services to assist customers in optimizing the use of Oracle's applications and infrastructure technologies[2].

The revenue contribution for of the four business segments can be seen in the following table:

Business Segment Revenue (in $ millions) % of total revenue
Cloud services and license support 35,307 71%
Cloud license and on-premise license 5,779 12%
Hardware 3,274 7%
Services 5,594 11%

Main ProductsEdit

Oracle's widely used SaaS products include, among others:

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), which is a comprehensive and unified ERP solution that aims to enhance organizational decision-making and workforce efficiency while streamlining back-office operations. It is designed to be a fully integrated and global platform, enabling businesses to benefit from a shared data and security model, along with a consistent user interface. By adopting Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, organizations can optimize their processes and achieve improved productivity on a global scale.

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), which is a purpose-built solution aimed at evaluating financial performance, facilitating precise and flexible financial planning, enhancing the efficiency of financial close and consolidation procedures, simplifying account reconciliation, and meeting the reporting needs of organizations.

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management (SCM), which is a tailored offering intended to support organizations in establishing, enhancing, and digitalizing their supply chains while enabling swift product innovation.

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), which is a specialized solution crafted to assist organizations in sourcing, nurturing, and retaining their workforce.

• Oracle Cerner healthcare, which is a purpose-built system intended to empower healthcare professionals in providing enhanced medical services to patients.

Oracle's extensively utilized infrastructure offerings encompass a variety of products, including: Familiar databases like Oracle Database and MySQL, alongside Oracle Autonomous Database, which heavily leverages machine learning to detect and rectify human errors that might otherwise remain unnoticed.

MarketEdit

Total Addressable Market (TAM)Edit

The total addressable market (TAM) for Oracle is characterized as the worldwide information technology industry. As per research reports, the global information technology sector expanded from $8,179 billion in 2022 to $8,852 billion in 2023, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%. By 2027, it is anticipated that the market valuation will reach approximately $11,995 billion, demonstrating a CAGR of 7.9%. The predominant catalyst fueling this anticipated expansion is poised to be cloud computing.

Serviceable Available Market (SAM)Edit

The serviceable available market (SAM) encompassing Oracle pertains to the worldwide arena of cloud computing. As indicated by research reports, the cloud computing market is projected to escalate from $581 billion in 2023 to reach $1,243.42 billion by 2028, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4%. This acceleration can be attributed to technological disruptions, particularly in areas like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Moreover, another contributing factor to this growth trajectory is the impact of the pandemic. Even post-pandemic, a portion of individuals continues to work remotely, thereby underscoring the indispensability of cloud computing for daily operations.

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)Edit

Oracle Corporation currently holds a share of approximately 2% in the cloud computing market. The company's market presence in the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector stands at around 4%, while its influence in the Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment is limited (Statista, 2022). There exists substantial potential for Oracle to elevate its standing in the Infrastructure as a Service domain over the forthcoming years, mainly fueled by strategic partnerships with Intel and Red Hat, coupled with endorsements from notable entities like Uber, FedEx, Toyota, and Zoom, among others. With Oracle's OCI demonstrating cost-effectiveness (in comparison to its counterparts) and high value, it's anticipated to be widely adopted by various companies aiming to develop AI models such as ChatGPT. As a result, the company is poised to erode the market share of its rivals while concurrently increasing its own. Given its substantial market share in the SaaS segment, an expansion in the IaaS market share is projected to potentially double Oracle's overall cloud computing market share within the upcoming 5 years, potentially reaching around 5%.

CompetitionEdit

The global landscape of cloud computing is characterized by its fragmentation, leading to a landscape of intense rivalry. Established entities like Amazon, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, and Salesforce engage in fierce competition, alongside emerging startups that strive to innovate and secure their share of the market. Consequently, Oracle finds itself in the midst of rigorous competition from both established industry players and freshly established firms. Given Oracle's assertive approach to acquisitions and its pursuit of expansion into novel domains like healthcare software (as evident in its acquisition of Cerner, a healthcare software provider), the range of its competitors is poised to expand further. This includes a broader spectrum of rivals such as Epic Systems Corporation, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc., Arcadia Solutions, athenahealth, Inc., and InterSystems Corporation, among others. Below is a detailed analysis of the most important competitors of Oracle Corporation[1]:

Company Description Competition Market Capitalization
Amazon Amazon's subsidiary, AWS, stands as the foremost global provider of cloud services, presenting an extensive range of cloud computing solutions. In the market for cloud infrastructure and platform services, Oracle Cloud directly rivals AWS. These two corporations compete to attract enterprises seeking to harness the benefits of cloud technology for scalability, adaptability, and cost-efficiency. $1,450,366 mil.
Microsoft A worldwide technology giant, Microsoft offers a diverse range of products and services. While Oracle and Microsoft vie in certain domains, their main areas of emphasis diverge. Microsoft holds a significant role in operating systems, cloud solutions, productivity applications (Office Suite), gaming (Xbox), and collaboration tools (Microsoft Teams). In the domain of cloud computing, Microsoft Azure directly contends with Oracle Cloud. Both enterprises provide solutions in Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Software as a Service (SaaS). Moreover, Microsoft's Power Platform competes with Oracle's platforms for application development and low-code solutions. $2,407,540 mil.
IBM IBM is a technology and advisory firm with a well-established history in multiple industries, encompassing fields like cloud offerings, artificial intelligence, and enterprise solutions. Although both corporations have a track record of providing business software solutions, their rivalry extends to domains such as cloud services and the management of database systems. IBM's cloud service, IBM Cloud, goes head-to-head with Oracle Cloud, and IBM's database system, Db2, competes directly with Oracle Database. $129,280 mil.
Salesforce Salesforce holds a prominent position in the customer relationship management (CRM) industry. It delivers cloud-centric solutions for overseeing sales, marketing, and customer service operations. Oracle directly challenges Salesforce with its Oracle CRM Cloud product. These two enterprises are in competition to secure their portion of the swiftly expanding Customer Relationship Management (CRM) arena, presenting a variety of functionalities and possibilities for customization to cater to the demands of their customers. $206,546 mil.
SAP SAP is a leading enterprise software company known for its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and other business applications. Its expertise lies in aiding companies in the management of diverse operations, encompassing finance, supply chain, and human resources. Oracle and SAP are significant contenders in the realm of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). They vie for the attention of corporate clients in search of comprehensive and unified answers to oversee their business activities. Frequently, their ERP products, namely Oracle ERP Cloud and SAP S/4HANA, directly compete against each other within the market. $162,318 mil.
Workday Workday is a company that offers enterprise software through cloud-based services, focusing on delivering solutions for managing human capital (HCM) and financial management tailored to businesses and organizations. Workday directly competes with Oracle HCM Cloud in the HCM space. Oracle's HCM Cloud similarly presents a comprehensive array of cloud-driven human resources and talent management software, targeting the requirements of sizeable corporations and institutions. $59,401 mil.

FinancialsEdit

Historic and projected financial statementsEdit

Income Statement 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P
Total revenues 40,479 42,440 49,954 53,950 58,266 62,928 67,962 73,399
Cost of revenues (7,855) (8,877) (13,564) (14,649) (15,821) (17,087) (18,454) (19,930)
Sales and marketing (7,682) (8,047) (8,833) (10,003) (10,803) (11,667) (12,600) (13,608)
R&D (6,527) (7,219) (8,623) (9,063) (9,788) (10,571) (11,417) (12,330)
G&A (1,254) (1,317) (1,579) (1,684) (1,818) (1,964) (2,121) (2,291)
Amortization of intangible assets (1,379) (1,150) (3,582) (2,994) (2,283) (1,620) (664) (635)
Acquisition related and other (138) (4,713) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190)
Restructuring (431) (191) (490) (490) (490) (490) (490) (490)
Total operating expenses (25,266) (31,514) (36,861) (39,072) (41,193) (43,589) (45,936) (49,474)
Operating income (EBIT) 15,213 10,926 13,093 14,878 17,073 19,339 22,026 23,925
Interest expense (2496) (2755) (3505) (3,716) (3,585) (3,555) (3,503) (3,327)
Interest income 101 94 285 196 60 20 21 22
Non-operating (expenses) income, net 181 (616) (747) (747) (747) (747) (747) (747)
Income before taxes 12,999 7,649 9,126 10,612 12,801 15,057 17,797 19,873
Provision for benefit from income taxes 747 (932) (623) (1,009) (1,217) (1,431) (1,692) (1,889)
Net income 13,746 6,717 8,503 9,603 11,585 13,625 16,106 17,984
Balance Sheet 2022A 2023A 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P
Current assets:
Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities 21,902 10,187 3,860 748 888 1,039 1,202
Trade receivables, net of allowances for credit losses of $428 and $362 as of May 31, 2023 and May 31, 2022, respectively 5,953 6,915 7,468 8,066 8,711 9,408 10,160
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 3,778 3,902 4,214 4,551 4,915 5,309 5,733
Total current assets 31,633 21,004 15,542 13,365 14,514 15,755 17,096
Non-current assets:
Property, plant and equipment, net 9,716 17,069 22,131 26,726 30,854 33,751 33,923
Intangible assets, net 1,440 9,837 10,624 11,474 12,392 13,383 14,454
Goodwill, net 43,811 62,261 67,242 72,621 78,431 84,705 91,482
Deferred tax assets 12,782 12,226 12,226 12,226 12,226 12,226 12,226
Other non-current assets 9,915 11,987 12,946 13,982 15,100 16,308 17,613
Total non-current assets 77,664 113,380 125,168 137,029 149,003 160,374 169,697
Total assets 109,297 134,384 140,710 150,394 163,517 176,129 186,793
Current liabilities:
Commercial paper/revolver 0 563 0 7,325 12,307 14,622 18,406
Accounts payable 1,317 1,204 1,300 1,404 1,517 1,638 1,769
Accrued compensation and related benefits 1,944 2,053 2,217 2,395 2,586 2,793 3,017
Deferred revenues 8,357 8,970 9,688 10,463 11,300 12,204 13,180
Other current liabilities 4,144 6,802 7,346 7,934 8,569 9,254 9,994
Total current liabilities 15,762 19,592 20,551 29,520 36,279 40,510 46,366
Non-current liabilities:
Long-term debt, plus current portion 75,859 89,918 85,855 75,855 70,161 64,911 54,741
Income taxes payable 12,210 11,077 11,963 12,920 13,954 15,070 16,276
Deferred tax liabilities 6,031 5,772 5,772 5,772 5,772 5,772 5,772
Other non-current liabilities 5,203 6,469 6,987 7,545 8,149 8,801 9,505
Total non-current liabilities 99,303 113,236 110,577 102,093 98,036 94,554 86,294
Oracle Corporation stockholders' equity (deficit):
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value—authorized: 1.0 shares; outstanding: none 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Common stock, $0.01 par value and additional paid in capital—authorized: 11,000 shares; outstanding: 2,713 shares and 2,665 shares as of May 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively 26,808 30,215 34,046 38,183 42,651 47,477 52,689
Accumulated deficit (31,336) (27,620) (23,424) (18,363) (12,410) (5,373) 2,484
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (1,692) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522)
Total Oracle Corporation stockholders' equity (deficit) (6,220) 1,073 9,099 18,298 28,719 40,582 53,651
Noncontrolling interests 452 483 483 483 483 483 483
Total stockholders' equity (deficit) (5,768) 1,556 9,582 18,781 29,202 41,065 54,134
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity (deficit) 109,297 134,384 140,710 150,394 163,517 176,129 186,793
Cash Flow Statement 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P
Net income 9,603 11,585 13,625 16,106 17,984
Depreciation and amortization 6,250 5,760 5,395 4,767 4,974
Stock based compensation 3,831 4,137 4,468 4,826 5,212
Decreases / (Increases) in working capital assets (865) (935) (1,009) (1,090) (1,177)
Increases / (Decreases) in working capital liabilities 1,522 1,644 1,776 1,918 2,071
Other non current assets (9,721) (9,548) (9,466) (9,138) (9,787)
Other non current liabilities 1,404 1,516 1,637 1,768 1,910
Cash from operating activities 12,023 14,160 16,426 19,156 21,187
Capital expenditures (8,317) (8,073) (7,903) (7,000) (4,511)
Cash from investing activities (8,317) (8,073) (7,903) (7,000) (4,511)
Long term debt (4,063) (10,000) (5,694) (5,250) (10,170)
Revolver (563) 7,325 4,983 2,314 3,784
Share repurchases (1,265) (1,526) (1,795) (2,121) (2,369)
Common dividends (4,143) (4,997) (5,878) (6,948) (7,758)
Cash from financing activities (10,034) (9,198) (8,384) (12,005) (16,513)
Net change in cash during period (6,327) (3,112) 140 151 163

RatiosEdit

2021A 2022A 2023A
Profitability ratios
Gross profit 81% 79% 73%
Operating profit margin 38% 26% 26%
Net profit margin 34% 16% 17%
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio 2.01 1.07
Quick ratio 1.77 0.87
Leverage ratios
Debt to Assets 69% 67%
Debt to Equity -1315% 5815%
Debt to Capital 108% 98%
Interest coverage ratio 726% 510%
Efficiency ratios
Asset turnover ratio 39% 37%
Performance ratios
Return on equity (ROE) -116% 546%
Return on assets (ROA) 6% 6%
Return on invested capital (ROIC) 20% 15%
Return on capital employed (ROCE) 10% 11%

DCF ValuationEdit

Our $131.43 price target represents our DCF valuation on Oracle over the next 5 years. A discount rate of 7.46% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% were used in order to calculate discounted cash flows and terminal value[1]. The discount rate was calculated using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. The cost of equity was calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A beta of 0.85, a market risk premium of 5%[3] and a risk-free rate of 4.16% were used in the CAPM calculation. This target price shows a potential upside of around 16.25% when compared to the current market price. DCF is an assumption-based model and the accuracy of those assumptions can significantly impact the valuation results. The assumptions used are included in the following table:

Variable Value Commentary
Revenue growth (% change) 8% The base case scenario assumes a revenue growth rate of 8%, given that Oracle is an established company and sell-side analysts provided this estimate (Capital IQ, 2023). Our bullish scenario assumes a revenue growth rate of 10%, whereas our bearish case assumes a revenue growth rate of 6%.
Gross profit margin 73% The last observation of gross margin was used. Our bullish scenario assumes a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, whereas our bearish case scenario assumes a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.
Sales & Marketing 19% The historical average of Sales & Marketing was used.
R&D 17% The historical average of R&D was used.
G&A 3% The historical average of G&A was used.
Tax rate 10% The historical average of tax rate was used. Our bullish scenario assumes a tax rate of 7%, whereas our bearish case assumes a tax rate of 13%.
Capital Expenditures $8,317 in 2024P, $8,073 in 2025P, $7,903 in 2026P, $7,000 in 2027P, $4,511 in 2028P For years 2024, 2025, 2026 the projections of sell-side analysts were used (Capital IQ, 2023). Subjective assumption were used for years 2027, 2028. Thereafter, it is anticipated that the capital expenses will gradually decrease to their previous levels. This is because Oracle will probably be unable to sustain its capital expenditures at such elevated rates due to substantial debt repayments and limited cash reserves.

Sensitivity AnalysisEdit

Table 1

Sensitivity analysis provides valuable insights into the potential outcomes and risks associated with models which are based on a wide range of assumptions. As such, it is crucial to be implemented for models, such as the DCF. Two significant variables that have an important impact in our DCF valuation were revenue growth rate and WACC. As it is widely known, when the WACC increases, the valuation decreases as they are negatively related based on the NPV formula. For example, in the first table, when the WACC increases by only 0.5%, the intrinsic value per share falls by approximately $17. If we increase it by another 0.5%, the intrinsic value per share drops to $100.61. Revenue growth is an essential part of the valuation as well, since it significantly impacts the free cash flow of Oracle. Under our bearish case (revenue growth rate equals 6%), Oracle's share is worth $115.81, whereas under our bullish case (revenue growth rate equals 10%) Oracle's share is worth $148.31.

Table 2

The second table includes another variable that can potentially alter our valuation result a lot, which is the perpetual growth rate. Here, under our base case, the company is expected to grow by 3% in perpetuity. This figure is most of the times tied up with the global GPD growth. However, it is worth noting that a perpetually growing economy is an idealized assumption and may not reflect the reality of economic cycles and fluctuations.

Comparable Company AnalysisEdit

Our second method for valuing Oracle was comparable company analysis. Price/earnings, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, and Enterprise Value/Revenue ratios were used. The companies selected were the direct competitors, as mentioned above.

Comparables table

To begin, the EV/Sales metric was employed. This involved taking the revenue from the past year and multiplying it by the median EV/Sales ratio of competing firms. As a result, the estimated enterprise value stood at $278,895 million. After accounting for net debt, it became evident that the equity value equated to $193,752 million or $71.38 per share. Consequently, based on this ratio, the company appears to be overvalued compared to its peers.

Moving on, the EV/EBITDA ratio was employed. By taking the EBITDA over the last 12 months and multiplying it by the median EV/EBITDA ratio among rivals, the implied enterprise value reached $474,443 million. Deducting net debt led us to an equity value of $389,300 million. Dividing this amount by the outstanding shares yielded an implied value of $143.43 per share. Thus, according to this multiple, the company seems to be undervalued compared to its industry counterparts.

Lastly, the P/E ratio was brought into consideration. Earnings from the past year were multiplied by the median P/E ratio of the six comparable companies. The estimated equity value stood at $412,878 million. Dividing this sum by the total outstanding shares of 2,714 million resulted in a fair share value of $152.11. Once again, the company's valuation appears to be lower when compared to its peers. These outcomes suggest that investors might not be fully acknowledging the company's potential for earnings or growth relative to its competitors, leading to a lower valuation at present.

RisksEdit

Operational risk

Given the cloud-based nature of many of Oracle's services, operational risk becomes a significant consideration. Cloud services are reliant on stable and resilient infrastructure. Any technical issues, outages, or disruptions in data centers or networks could lead to service downtime and impact customer satisfaction. Furthermore, Oracle's cloud services need to be scalable and able to handle increased demand. Inadequate infrastructure to accommodate growth or surges in usage could result in performance issues and customer dissatisfaction.

Share repurchase risk

There is no guarantee that Oracle will keep buying back common stock like he did in the previous 3 years. In fact, it is expected from the company to suspend or reduce its share repurchase program given that it resulted in equity deficit in 2022. Furthermore, the company stated in its annual report that it is not going to increase its share repurchases until their gross debt is reduced below some unspecified level.

Reputational risk

Oracle holds vast amounts of sensitive data from its customers. Any breach of this data could lead to significant reputational damage, legal consequences, and loss of customer trust. In case customers lose their trust, they may stop buying products or continue using them. This could result in a revenue loss and high lawsuit expenses.

Acquisitions-related risks

Oracle has followed an aggressive acquisition strategy throughout the years. That can be seen by the large number of acquisitions that have been completed, such as Cerner, Adi Insights, FOEX, Federos, FarApp, among others. An aggressive acquisition strategy, while potentially beneficial in expanding a company's market presence and diversifying its offerings, also comes with several risks. The most important risk is the challenge of integrating the products and workforce of all these companies into Oracle's existing operations. Poor integration can lead to inefficiencies and cultural clashes.

Leverage levels

The company's debt level is really high compared to its competitors, which can be seen by its debt to equity and debt to capital ratios. This is a result of its share repurchase program as well as the aggressive acquisition strategy which involves a lot of debt. The company might have to suspend its repurchase program or reduce its capital expenditures in order to be able to reduce its debt levels. S&P has assigned a credit rating of BBB, which is low when compared to its competitors (e.g. Microsoft, Salesforce). Such a low credit rating can potentially lead to higher cost of debt moving forward[1].


  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 John Soursos. (2023). Applied Project (MSc in Financial Technology, Imperial College Business School).
  2. Oracle. (2023). Annual Report: 2023.[1]
  3. Damodaran. (2023). Country Default Spread and Risk Premiums. [2]