Summary

Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning (ERP), Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management, Oracle Advertising, and NetSuite applications suite, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle application licenses; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database, an enterprise database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, MySQL HeatWave, Internet-of-Things, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware services; and consulting and customer services. The company markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Mission

Oracle's mission revolves around enabling individuals and businesses to envision data from fresh vantage points, unearthing invaluable insights, and unlocking a realm of boundless possibilities. Through their comprehensive suite of software, hardware, and cloud services, the company empowers its customers to make data-driven decisions, drive innovation, and embrace a future brimming with endless opportunities. By providing cutting-edge technologies, Oracle seeks to revolutionize the way people perceive and harness data, paving the way for transformative growth and success across various industries.

Business Analysis

Oracle Corporation offers a range of products and services designed to cater to the needs of enterprise information technology (IT) settings. Oracle's business is divided into four different segments: Cloud services and license support, Cloud License and on-premise license, Hardware, and Services.

Oracle cloud services encompass a wide array of offerings, such as Oracle Software-as-a-Service and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, all of which are delivered in the form of a cloud-based model. Clients can conveniently access there services using their preferred web browser. Oracle cloud services have been strategically crafted to allow customers to swiftly implement them, resulting in reduced time to achieve innovation. These services boast a user-friendly interface, catering to both novices and seasoned users alike. They are designed to be easily maintained, minimizing the effort required for upgrades, integration, and testing. Additionally, these services can seamlessly connect across various deployment models, promoting flexibility between different IT environments. They ensure compatibility, making it effortless to migrate workloads between the Oracle Cloud and other IT setups. Moreover, these services are cost-effective, requiring lower initial customer investments. Above all, they prioritize security, adhere to standards, and offer unwavering reliability.

Oracle applications technologies is a part of cloud services and license support business segment. It includes the company's SaaS offerings, which are used from a large number of corporations worldwide, as well as the license support, which is generally purchased by all of Oracle's customers. The support offerings provided by the company serve to safeguard and enhance the investments made by its customers in Oracle applications. These offerings include proactive and personalized support services, such as Oracle Lifetime Support, as well as unspecified license enhancements and upgrades throughout the support period. They are designed to ensure that customers receive comprehensive assistance and protection for their Oracle products, optimizing the value and longevity of their investments. Oracle applications technologies and license support revenues accounted for 47%, 42%, and 41% of the total cloud services and license support revenues during years 2023, 2022, and 2021.

Oracle offers its infrastructure technologies to customers both through its cloud and license business segment and its hardware business segment. Within the company's cloud and license business segment, the infrastructure technologies comprise the renowned Oracle Database, widely recognized as the most popular enterprise database globally. Additionally, it includes Java, which stands as the most widely-used software development language in the computer industry, along with various middleware tools and development resources. These infrastructure technologies can be accessed through subscription to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) offerings or via the purchase of a license, along with related license support, giving customers the option to run these technologies within the Oracle Cloud, as part of on-premise cloud services, or in other customer IT environments. The company's infrastructure cloud services and license support revenues represented 53%, 58% and 59% of total cloud services and license support revenues during years 2023, 2022 and 2021.

Oracle infrastructure technologies also includes products offered through the company's hardware business segments. This part of the business is divided into:

  • Oracle servers (e.g. servers consisting of Oracle SPARC microprocessor or x86 microprocessor)
  • Oracle storage
  • Oracle industry-specific hardware offerings (products designed for particular industries such as food and beverage, hotel and retail)
  • Oracle operating systems (e.g. Oracle Linux, Oracle Solaris)
  • Oracle hardware support (provides support for oracle systems though software updates of the hardware products, repairs, and technical support)

The fourth business segment, which is Oracle Services, provides consultation and training to help customers effectively utilize Oracle's applications and infrastructure technologies.

The revenue contribution for of the four business segments can be seen in the following table:

Business Segment Revenue (2023) % of Total Revenue
Cloud services and license support 35,307 71%
Cloud license and on-premise license 5,779 12%
Hardware 3,274 7%
Services 5,594 11%

Main Products

Oracle's widely used SaaS products include, among others:

  • Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), which is a comprehensive and unified ERP solution that aims to enhance organizational decision-making and workforce efficiency while streamlining back-office operations. It is designed to be a fully integrated and global platform, enabling businesses to benefit from a shared data and security model, along with a consistent user interface. By adopting Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, organizations can optimize their processes and achieve improved productivity on a global scale.
  • Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), which is a purpose-built solution aimed at evaluating financial performance, facilitating precise and flexible financial planning, enhancing the efficiency of financial close and consolidation procedures, simplifying account reconciliation, and meeting the reporting needs of organizations.
  • Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management (SCM), which is a tailored offering intended to support organizations in establishing, enhancing, and digitalizing their supply chains while enabling swift product innovation.
  • Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), which is a specialized solution crafted to assist organizations in sourcing, nurturing, and retaining their workforce.
  • Oracle Cerner healthcare, which is a purpose-built system intended to empower healthcare professionals in providing enhanced medical services to patients.

Oracle's widely used infrastructure products include, among others:

Well-known databases, such as Oracle Database and MySQL, as well as Oracle Autonomous Database, which relies heavily on machine-learning in order to eliminate human errors that otherwise would go unnoticed.

Market

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The total addressable market (TAM) for Oracle is defined as the global information technology market. According to research reports, the global information technology market grew from $8,179 billion in 2022 to $8,852 in 2023 at a CAGR of 8.2%. In 2027, the market value is expected to be around $11,995 billion, growing at a CAGR of 7.9%. The main driver behind this projected growth is going to be cloud computing.

Serviceable Available Market (SAM)

The serviceable available market (SAM) for Oracle is defined as the global cloud computing market. According to research reports, the cloud computing market is expected to climb from $581 billion in 2023 to $1,243.42 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 16.4%. This is due to technology disruption in field such as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Furthermore, another reason for this type of growth is the pandemic. After the end of the pandemic, a percentage of people are still working from home, thereby making cloud computing essential for every day tasks.

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)

The cloud computing market share of Oracle Corporation sits around 2%. The market share of the company in the SaaS segment is close to 5%, whereas in the IaaS segment is insignificant, according to Statista. There is a huge opportunity for Oracle to raise its Infrastructure as a Service market share in the following years, given the strategic alliances with Intel and Red Hat, as well as the adoption from companies such as Uber, FedEx, Toyota and Zoom among others. Oracle's OCI is expected to be widely adopted by several other companies looking to train AI models like ChatGPT, because of its low cost (compared with competitors) and high value. Therefore, the company is expected to erode the market share of its competitors and increase its own moving forward. Since it has a significant market share in the SaaS segment, increasing its market share in the IaaS segment is expected to double its total cloud cloud computing market share in the next 5 years (resulting in market share of 5% approximately).

Competition

The global cloud computing market is a really fragmented market. As such, there is fierce competition among established companies, such as Amazon, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, Salesforce, as well as start-up companies that are looking for ways to innovate and gain market share. This increasing competition along with the AI disruption is expected to increase market share, as mentioned above. Consequently, Oracle faces intense competition from both established and newly created companies. Since Oracle has an aggressive acquisition policy and is looking to expand in new areas, such as healthcare software (i.e. he acquired Cerner which is a healthcare software provider), it is going to face even broader competitors (e.g. Epic Systems Corporation, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc., Arcadia Solutions, athenahealth, Inc. and InterSystems Corporation, among others). Below is a detailed analysis of the most important competitors of Oracle Corporation:

Company Analysis Competition Market Cap
Amazon AWS, a subsidiary of Amazon, is the leading cloud service providers globally, offering a comprehensive suite of cloud computing services. Oracle Cloud competes directly with AWS in the cloud infrastructure and platform services market. Both companies vie for enterprises looking to leverage cloud capabilities for scalability, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness. $1,357,445 mil.
Microsoft Microsoft is a global technology powerhouse with a wide array of products and services. While Oracle and Microsoft compete in some areas, their primary focus areas are different. Microsoft is a major player in operating systems, cloud services, productivity software (Office Suite), gaming (Xbox), and collaboration tools (Microsoft Teams). Microsoft Azure competes directly with Oracle Cloud in the cloud computing market. Both companies offer IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS solutions. Additionally, Microsoft's Power Platform competes with Oracle's application development and low-code platforms. $2,502,651 mil.
IBM IBM is a technology and consulting company with a long-established presence in various sectors, including cloud services, artificial intelligence, and enterprise solutions. While both companies have a history of offering enterprise software solutions, they compete in areas like cloud services and database management systems. IBM Cloud competes with Oracle Cloud, and IBM Db2 competes with Oracle Database. $129,918 mil.
Salesforce Salesforce is a dominant force in the customer relationship management (CRM) market. It provides cloud-based solutions to manage sales, marketing, and customer service. Oracle competes with Salesforce through its Oracle CRM Cloud offering. Both companies strive to capture market share in the rapidly growing CRM space, offering a range of features and customization options to meet customer needs. $222,627 mil.
SAP SAP is a leading enterprise software company known for its Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and other business applications. It specializes in helping businesses manage various processes, including finance, supply chain, and human resources. Both Oracle and SAP are major players in the ERP space. They compete for enterprise customers seeking robust and integrated solutions for managing business operations. Their ERP offerings, Oracle ERP Cloud and SAP S/4HANA, often go head-to-head in the market. $159,181 mil.
Workday Workday is a cloud-based enterprise software company that specializes in providing human capital management (HCM) and financial management solutions for businesses and organizations. Workday directly competes with Oracle HCM Cloud in the HCM space. Oracle's HCM Cloud also offers a comprehensive suite of cloud-based HR and talent management applications, aiming to cater to the needs of large enterprises and organizations. $60,782

Financials

Historic and projected financials

Income Statement 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P
Revenues 40,479 42,440 49,954 53,950 58,266 62,928 67,962 73,399
Cost of revenues (7,855) (8,877) (13,564) (14,649) (15,821) (17,087) (18,454) (19,930)
Sales and marketing (7,682) (8,047) (8,833) (10,003) (10,803) (11,667) (12,600) (13,608)
R&D (6,527) (7,219) (8,623) (9,063) (9,788) (10,571) (11,417) (12,330)
G&A (1,254) (1,317) (1,579) (1,684) (1,818) (1,964) (2,121) (2,291)
Amortization of intangible assets (1,379) (1,150) (3,582) (3,869) (4,178) (4,512) (4,873) (5,263)
Acquisition related and other (138) (4,713) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190) (190)
Restructuring (431) (191) (490) (490) (490) (490) (490) (490)
Total operating expenses (25,266) (31,514) (36,861) (39,947) (43,088) (46,481) (50,145) (54,102)
Operating income (EBIT) 15,213 10,926 13,093 14,004 15,178 16,447 17,817 19,297
Interest expense (2496) (2755) (3505) (3,816) (3,822) (3,831) (3,841) (3,851)
Interest income 101 94 285 241 213 212 229 253
Other non-operating (expenses) income, net 181 (616) (747) (747) (747) (747) (747) (747)
Income before taxes 12,999 7,649 9,126 9,682 10,822 12,081 13,458 14,952
Provision for benefit from income taxes 747 (932) (623) 1,743 1,948 2,175 2,422 2,691
Net income 13,746 6,717 8,503 11,425 12,770 14,255 15,881 17,643
Balance Sheet 2022A 2023A 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P
Current assets:
Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities 21,902 10,187 8,628 8,512 9,654 12,090 15,838
Trade receivables, net of allowances for credit losses of $428 and $362 as of May 31, 2023 and May 31, 2022, respectively 5,953 6,915 7,468 8,066 8,711 9,408 10,160
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 3,778 3,902 4,214 4,551 4,915 5,309 5,733
Total current assets 31,633 21,004 20,311 21,129 23,280 26,807 31,732
Non-current assets:
Property, plant and equipment, net 9,716 17,069 22,304 26,740 30,450 33,449 35,771
Intangible assets, net 1,440 9,837 10,624 11,474 12,392 13,383 14,454
Goodwill, net 43,811 62,261 67,242 72,621 78,431 84,705 91,482
Deferred tax assets 12,782 12,226 13,204 14,260 15,401 16,633 17,964
Other non-current assets 9,915 11,987 12,946 13,982 15,100 16,308 17,613
Total non-current assets 77,664 113,380 126,320 139,078 151,774 164,479 177,283
Total assets 109,297 134,384 146,631 160,207 175,054 191,286 209,015
Current liabilities:
Commercial paper/revolver 0 563 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Accounts payable 1,317 1,204 1,300 1,404 1,517 1,638 1,769
Accrued compensation and related benefits 1,944 2,053 2,217 2,395 2,586 2,793 3,017
Deferred revenues 8,357 8,970 9,688 10,463 11,300 12,204 13,180
Other current liabilities 4,144 6,802 7,346 7,934 8,569 9,254 9,994
Total current liabilities 15,762 19,592 21,151 22,995 24,971 27,089 29,360
Non-current liabilities:
Long-term debt, plus current portion 75,859 89,918 89,918 89,918 89,918 89,918 89,918
Income taxes payable 12,210 11,077 11,963 12,920 13,954 15,070 16,276
Deferred tax liabilities 6,031 5,772 6,234 6,732 7,271 7,853 8,481
Other non-current liabilities 5,203 6,469 6,987 7,545 8,149 8,801 9,505
Total non-current liabilities 99,303 113,236 115,101 117,116 119,292 121,642 124,180
Oracle Corporation stockholders' equity (deficit):
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value—authorized: 1.0 shares; outstanding: none 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Common stock, $0.01 par value and additional paid in capital—authorized: 11,000 shares; outstanding: 2,713 shares and 2,665 shares as of May 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively 26,808 30,215 34,046 38,183 42,651 47,477 52,689
Accumulated deficit (31,336) (27,620) (22,628) (17,049) (10,821) (3,882) 3,826
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (1,692) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522) (1,522)
Total Oracle Corporation stockholders' equity (deficit) (6,220) 1,073 9,895 19,612 30,308 42,072 54,993
Noncontrolling interests 452 483 483 483 483 483 483
Total stockholders' equity (deficit) (5,768) 1,556 10,378 20,095 30,791 42,555 55,476
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity (deficit) 109,297 134,384 146,631 160,207 175,054 191,286 209,015
Cash Flow Statement 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P
Net income 11,425 12,770 14,255 15,881 17,643
Depreciation and amortization 6,950 7,815 8,704 9,574 10,442
Stock based compensation 3,831 4,137 4,468 4,826 5,212
Decreases / (Increases) in working capital assets (865) (935) (1,009) (1,090) (1,177)
Increases / (Decreases) in working capital liabilities 1,522 1,644 1,776 1,918 2,071
Other non current assets (11,573) (12,499) (13,499) (14,579) (15,746)
Other non current liabilities 1,865 2,015 2,176 2,350 2,538
Cash from operating activities 13,155 14,947 16,871 18,879 20,983
Capital expenditures (8,317) (8,073) (7,902) (7,700) (7,500)
Cash from investing activities (8,317) (8,073) (7,902) (7,700) (7,500)
Long term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Revolver 37 200 200 200 200
Share repurchases (1,505) (1,682) (1,878) (2,092) (2,324)
Common dividends (4,928) (5,509) (6,149) (6,851) (7,611)
Cash from financing activities (6,396) (6,991) (7,827) (8,742) (9,735)
Net change in cash during period (1,559) (116) 1,142 2,437 3,748

Ratios

2021A 2022A 2023A
Profitability ratios
Gross margin 81% 79% 73%
Operating margin 38% 26% 26%
Net margin 34% 16% 17%
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio 2.01 1.07
Quick ratio 1.77 0.87
Leverage ratios
Debt to assets 0.69 0.67
Debt to equity -13.15 58.15
Debt to capital 1.08 0.98
Interest coverage ratio 7.26 5.1
Efficiency ratios
Asset turnover ratio 39% 37%
Performance ratios
Return on equity (ROE) -116% 546%
Return on assets (ROA) 6% 6%
Return on invested capital (ROIC)

Valuation

Two methods were used for the valuation of Oracle Corporation: comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow analysis (DCF). Since Oracle is an established company, historical data is sufficient to perform a detailed DCF valuation. Using the DCF valuation method, under our base case, we found a value per share of $110.04. Thus the company is overvalued by 5.46% (market value per share right now is $116.4). DCF is an assumption-based model and the accuracy of those assumptions can significantly impact the valuation results. The assumptions used are included in the following table:

Description Value Commentary
Revenue growth (% change) 8%
Gross profit margin 73%
Sales & Marketing 19%
R&D 17%
G&A 3%
Tax rate 10%
Capital Expenditures $8,317 in 2024P, $8,073 in 2025P, $7,903 in 2026P, $7,500 in 2027P, $7,500 in 2028P
Dividend payout ratio 43%
Share repurchases (as a % of net income) 13% in 2024P, dropping by 1% year on year moving forward
Revolver discretionary borrowing $563 for the next 5 years

Our second method for valuing Oracle was comparable company analysis. Price/earnings and Enterprise Value/EBITDA ratios were used. Firstly, earnings of 2023 were multiplied by the median P/E ratio of the competitors (i.e. Microsoft, Amazon, SAP, IBM, Salesforce, Workday). The implied market cap was $779,470 million. This divided by shares outstanding resulted in a fair value of $287.18 which is significantly higher than the market price of $116.4. Thus the company seems to be undervalued when using this ratio. This may mean that investors may not be fully recognizing the company's earnings potential or growth prospects relative to each peers, leading to a lower current valuation.

Next, EV/EBITDA ratio was used. EBITDA of 2022 was multiplied by the median EV/EBITDA ratio of Oracle's competitors. The implied enterprise value was $428,758 million. Next, net debt was subtracted and we arrived at a $348,464 million market capitalization. This divided by shares outstanding resulted in a fair value of $128.38, which shows either that the company is undervalued relative to its peers by 10.29% or that investors anticipate its EBITDA to decline.

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis provides valuable insights into the potential outcomes and risks associated with models which are based on a wide range of assumptions. As such, it is crucial to be implemented for models, such as the DCF.

Sensitivity analysis table 1

Two significant variables that have an important impact in our DCF valuation were revenue growth rate and WACC. As it is widely known, when the WACC increases, the valuation decreases as they are negatively related based on the NPV formula. For example, in the first table, when the WACC increases by only 0.5%, the intrinsic value per share falls by approximately $13.24. If we increase it by another 0.5%, the intrinsic value per share drops to $85.71. Revenue growth is an essential part of the valuation as well, since it significantly impacts the free cash flow of Oracle. Under our bearish case (revenue growth rate equals 6%), Oracle's share is worth $95.85, whereas under our bullish case (revenue growth rate equals 10%) Oracle's share is worth $125.37.

Sensitivity analysis table 2

The second table includes another variable that can potentially alter our valuation result a lot, which is the perpetual growth rate. Here, under our base case, the company is expected to grow by 3% in perpetuity. This figure is most of the times tied up with the global GPD growth. However, it is worth noting that a perpetually growing economy is an idealized assumption and may not reflect the reality of economic cycles and fluctuations.

Risks

Operational risk

Given the cloud-based nature of many of Oracle's services, operational risk becomes a significant consideration. Cloud services are reliant on stable and resilient infrastructure. Any technical issues, outages, or disruptions in data centers or networks could lead to service downtime and impact customer satisfaction. Furthermore, Oracle's cloud services need to be scalable and able to handle increased demand. Inadequate infrastructure to accommodate growth or surges in usage could result in performance issues and customer dissatisfaction.

Share repurchase risk

There is no guarantee that Oracle will keep buying back common stock like he did in the previous 3 years. In fact, it is expected from the company to suspend or reduce its share repurchase program given that it resulted in equity deficit in 2022. Furthermore, the company stated in its annual report that it is not going to increase its share repurchases until their gross debt is reduced below some unspecified level.

Reputational risk

Oracle holds vast amounts of sensitive data from its customers. Any breach of this data could lead to significant reputational damage, legal consequences, and loss of customer trust. In case customers lose their trust, they may stop buying products or continue using them. This could result in a revenue loss and high lawsuit expenses.