Oracle Corporation

Investment Thesis

We suggest adopting a long position on this stock, positioning it as an appealing option for buying due to its consistent and expanding dividend, steady growth in revenue, and the anticipated substantial growth in the cloud infrastructure sector. There are several positive aspects within the business and financial realms that we expect to yield favorable results, aspects that the investor community currently undervalues. Oracle's Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is predicted to outperform its competitors due to its superior performance and more affordable pricing. The company is also actively reinvesting significant capital into its operations, as evidenced by its noteworthy capital expenditures and escalating research and development costs. This could effectively support its strategic acquisition approach and product range expansion. Our projected price target, based on the DCF model's base case, stands at $131.43. Furthermore, additional potential for growth is indicated by a comparable company analysis, which demonstrates that the company is currently underestimated by investors relative to its peers, particularly when considering EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios.

Business Analysis

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. Oracle's operations are categorized into four distinct business segments: Cloud services and license assistance, Cloud License and on-premise license, Hardware, and Services.

Oracle's range of cloud services covers a diverse spectrum of offerings, encompassing Oracle Software-as-a-Service and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, all delivered through a cloud-centric framework. Users can conveniently access these services via their preferred web browser. These Oracle cloud services have been strategically designed to expedite their implementation, leading to quicker innovation timelines. These services feature a user-friendly interface, catering to both novice and experienced users, and are engineered for simplified maintenance, reducing the effort needed for upgrades, integration, and testing. Furthermore, these services seamlessly integrate across different deployment models, enhancing flexibility among diverse IT environments. They ensure smooth compatibility, facilitating the transition of workloads between the Oracle Cloud and other IT configurations. In addition, these services are cost-efficient, requiring lower initial investments from customers. Primarily, they prioritize stringent security measures, adhere to established standards, and provide unwavering reliability.

Oracle Applications Technologies form an integral component of the cloud services and license support business division. This sector encompasses the company's Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, widely adopted by numerous global corporations, along with license support that is typically acquired by all Oracle customers. These support solutions offered by the company play a crucial role in safeguarding and augmenting the investments made by its clientele in Oracle applications. Among these provisions are proactive and personalized support services, notably Oracle Lifetime Support, in addition to unspecified license improvements and updates during the support duration. These services are meticulously crafted to ensure that customers receive all-encompassing aid and protection for their Oracle products, ultimately enhancing the value and lifespan of their investments. Over the years 2023, 2022, and 2021, revenues from Oracle Applications Technologies and license support contributed 47%, 42%, and 41%, respectively, to the overall cloud services and license support revenues.

Oracle provides its infrastructure technologies to clients through two main avenues: the cloud and license business segment, as well as the hardware business segment. Within the cloud and license business category, these infrastructure technologies encompass the renowned Oracle Database, acknowledged globally as the premier enterprise database solution. Furthermore, it encompasses Java, which holds the distinction of being the most widely utilized software development language in the computer industry. This portfolio also encompasses an array of middleware tools and development resources. These infrastructure technologies are accessible either through subscription to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) offerings or via the acquisition of licenses, accompanied by associated license support. This affords customers the flexibility to deploy these technologies within the Oracle Cloud, integrate them into on-premise cloud services, or implement them within their own IT environments. Notably, the company's revenue from infrastructure cloud services and license support represented 53%, 58%, and 59% of total cloud services and license support earnings for the years 2023, 2022, and 2021 respectively.

The range of Oracle's infrastructure technologies also encompasses products available via the corporation's hardware business sections. This part of the business is divided into:

• Oracle servers (e.g. servers consisting of Oracle SPARC microprocessor or x86 microprocessor)
• Oracle storage
• Oracle industry-specific hardware offerings (products designed for particular industries such as food and beverage, hotel and retail)
• Oracle operating systems (e.g. Oracle Linux, Oracle Solaris)
• Oracle hardware support (provides support for oracle systems though software updates of the hardware products, repairs, and technical support)

The fourth business segment, known as Oracle Services, delivers advisory and training services to assist customers in optimizing the use of Oracle's applications and infrastructure technologies.

The revenue contribution for of the four business segments can be seen in the following table:

Business Segment	Revenue (in $ millions)	% of total revenue
Cloud services and license support	35,307	71%
Cloud license and on-premise license	5,779	12%
Hardware	3,274	7%
Services	5,594	11%

Main Products

Oracle's widely used SaaS products include, among others:

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), which is a comprehensive and unified ERP solution that aims to enhance organizational decision-making and workforce efficiency while streamlining back-office operations. It is designed to be a fully integrated and global platform, enabling businesses to benefit from a shared data and security model, along with a consistent user interface. By adopting Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, organizations can optimize their processes and achieve improved productivity on a global scale.

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), which is a purpose-built solution aimed at evaluating financial performance, facilitating precise and flexible financial planning, enhancing the efficiency of financial close and consolidation procedures, simplifying account reconciliation, and meeting the reporting needs of organizations.

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain and Manufacturing Management (SCM), which is a tailored offering intended to support organizations in establishing, enhancing, and digitalizing their supply chains while enabling swift product innovation.

• Oracle Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), which is a specialized solution crafted to assist organizations in sourcing, nurturing, and retaining their workforce.

• Oracle Cerner healthcare, which is a purpose-built system intended to empower healthcare professionals in providing enhanced medical services to patients.

Oracle's extensively utilized infrastructure offerings encompass a variety of products, including: Familiar databases like Oracle Database and MySQL, alongside Oracle Autonomous Database, which heavily leverages machine learning to detect and rectify human errors that might otherwise remain unnoticed.

Market

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The total addressable market (TAM) for Oracle is characterized as the worldwide information technology industry. As per research reports, the global information technology sector expanded from $8,179 billion in 2022 to $8,852 billion in 2023, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%. By 2027, it is anticipated that the market valuation will reach approximately $11,995 billion, demonstrating a CAGR of 7.9%. The predominant catalyst fueling this anticipated expansion is poised to be cloud computing.

Serviceable Available Market (SAM)

The serviceable available market (SAM) encompassing Oracle pertains to the worldwide arena of cloud computing. As indicated by research reports, the cloud computing market is projected to escalate from $581 billion in 2023 to reach $1,243.42 billion by 2028, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4%. This acceleration can be attributed to technological disruptions, particularly in areas like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Moreover, another contributing factor to this growth trajectory is the impact of the pandemic. Even post-pandemic, a portion of individuals continues to work remotely, thereby underscoring the indispensability of cloud computing for daily operations.

Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)

Oracle Corporation currently holds a share of approximately 2% in the cloud computing market. The company's market presence in the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector stands at around 4%, while its influence in the Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment is limited (Statista, 2022). There exists substantial potential for Oracle to elevate its standing in the Infrastructure as a Service domain over the forthcoming years, mainly fueled by strategic partnerships with Intel and Red Hat, coupled with endorsements from notable entities like Uber, FedEx, Toyota, and Zoom, among others. With Oracle's OCI demonstrating cost-effectiveness (in comparison to its counterparts) and high value, it's anticipated to be widely adopted by various companies aiming to develop AI models such as ChatGPT. As a result, the company is poised to erode the market share of its rivals while concurrently increasing its own. Given its substantial market share in the SaaS segment, an expansion in the IaaS market share is projected to potentially double Oracle's overall cloud computing market share within the upcoming 5 years, potentially reaching around 5%.

Competition

The global landscape of cloud computing is characterized by its fragmentation, leading to a landscape of intense rivalry. Established entities like Amazon, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, and Salesforce engage in fierce competition, alongside emerging startups that strive to innovate and secure their share of the market. Consequently, Oracle finds itself in the midst of rigorous competition from both established industry players and freshly established firms. Given Oracle's assertive approach to acquisitions and its pursuit of expansion into novel domains like healthcare software (as evident in its acquisition of Cerner, a healthcare software provider), the range of its competitors is poised to expand further. This includes a broader spectrum of rivals such as Epic Systems Corporation, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc., Arcadia Solutions, athenahealth, Inc., and InterSystems Corporation, among others. Below is a detailed analysis of the most important competitors of Oracle Corporation: