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Picton Property Income
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== Valuation and performance == The current level of quarterly DPS (0.875p) represents an annualised rate of 3.5p or a 3.8% yield. Edison Investment Research forecasts further increases in quarterly DPS during FY23 and FY24. The current P/NAV10 per share is 0.77x. Although there has been a significant recovery from the early pandemic levels this is well below the 10-year average of 0.95x and a high of c 1.1x. '''Exhibit 16: 10-year P/NAV* history<ref>Source: Company NAV data, Refinitiv prices at 17 June 2022. Note: *EPRA NAV/NTA.</ref>''' [[File:Image10-642eb454b7171b18f164159ceaf43b33.png|600x600px]] Exhibit 17 shows a summary performance and valuation comparison of Picton and what Edison Investment Research considers to be its closest diversified income-oriented peers. Over three years, Picton’s share price performance is ahead of the group average, which shows a wide spread of performances, in some cases reflecting differing financial and operational performance during the pandemic. As market conditions have normalised, over 12-months the Picton share price performance is below the average. Based on 12-month trailing DPS declared, Picton shares trade on a lower yield than the group average, which in part reflects its strategy of balancing sustainable dividends with the capital requirements of active management, as well as relatively low gearing. With its share price failing to keep pace with NAV growth, Picton’s P/NAV is now below the peer, average having been at a meaningful premium a year ago. The company’s strong track record of property level performance, the future income and valuation growth potential embedded in its portfolio, and its strong balance sheet with relatively modest gearing are all potential triggers for Picton’s share price to re-rate. {| class="wikitable" |+Exhibit 17: Peer valuation and price performance comparison<ref>Source: Company data, Refinitiv prices at 17 June 2021. Note: *Based on last reported EPRA NAV/NTA. **Based on trailing 12-month DPS declared.</ref> ! rowspan="2" | ! rowspan="2" |Price (p) ! rowspan="2" |Market cap (£m) ! rowspan="2" |P/NAV (x)* ! rowspan="2" |Trailing yield (%)** ! colspan="4" |Share price performance |- !1 month !3 months !12 months !3 years |- |AEW REIT |118 |187 |1.04 |6.8 |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |0% |26% |24% |- |BMO Real Estate Investments |88 |212 |0.69 |4.5 |<nowiki>-7%</nowiki> |2% |25% |<nowiki>-10%</nowiki> |- |BMO Commercial Property Trust |116 |841 |0.81 |3.9 |<nowiki>-4%</nowiki> |0% |32% |<nowiki>-21%</nowiki> |- |Circle Property |235 |67 |0.86 |1.5 |<nowiki>-1%</nowiki> |3% |20% |15% |- |Custodian |103 |454 |0.86 |5.1 |4% |1% |4% |<nowiki>-14%</nowiki> |- |Ediston Property |81 |172 |0.84 |6.2 |4% |3% |18% |<nowiki>-27%</nowiki> |- |LondonMetric |240 |2350 |0.92 |3.9 |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-12%</nowiki> |2% |29% |- |Palace Capital |268 |124 |0.69 |4.9 |0% |11% |3% |<nowiki>-19%</nowiki> |- |Regional REIT |77 |397 |0.79 |8.5 |<nowiki>-10%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-13%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-11%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-18%</nowiki> |- |Schroder REIT |54 |265 |0.71 |5.5 |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |13% |<nowiki>-13%</nowiki> |- |Standard Life Investment Property |79 |309 |0.74 |4.8 |<nowiki>-2%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |10% |<nowiki>-17%</nowiki> |- |UK Commercial Property REIT |80 |1037 |0.72 |3.6 |<nowiki>-8%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-1%</nowiki> |0% |<nowiki>-9%</nowiki> |- |Average | | |0.81 |5.0 |<nowiki>-2%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-1%</nowiki> |13% |<nowiki>-7%</nowiki> |- |Picton |93 |507 |0.77 |3.7 |<nowiki>-2%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |5% |2% |- |UK property sector index |1,668 | | | |<nowiki>-5%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-13%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-5%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-8%</nowiki> |- |UK equity market index |3,882 | | | |<nowiki>-5%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-6%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-3%</nowiki> |<nowiki>-8%</nowiki> |}
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