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QuantumScape
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== Development timeline == '''Testing and validation progress''' QuantumScape has spent the last few months demonstrated that its battery works under conditions needed for automotive purposes and has taken to publish cell performance data under “gold-standard” test conditions: average charge/discharge rates of 1C or faster, temperatures of 25 degree Celsius, 100% depth of discharge, and externally applied pressure of no more than 3.4 atmospheres, simultaneously. The 1C-1C charge/discharge rate which QS cells undergo testing essentially means the battery charges to the full capacity in one hour, and discharges in one hour; the entire cycle is two hours. For reference, C/3-C/5 is an 8-hour cycle (for normal automotive testing). If 800 cycles are conducted under 1C-1C tests, roughly only 200 cycles can be conducted under the C3-C5 test. In some ways, 1C-1C is also a more rigorous test on the material and QS cited getting good data this way in more stringent conditions. It also allows the company faster access to testing data which are important trackers for investors at this stage. In order to achieve testing for 800 cycles, it will still take about 3 months under the 1C-1C rate. Separately, the battery needs to operate in a wide range of different temperatures for a long time, under high power rate, high cathode loading (high energy), unelevated temperature/pressure, and still achieve long cycle life and solid capacity retention. Figure 14 below shows results of 90% energy retention over 800 cycle life under the 1-layer, 4-layer, as well as 10-layer cell tests. QS also reported that initial testing on its 16-layer cell reflect similar results over 20 cycles. According to the company, these conditions are the best test for dendrite resistance, as cell failures tend to happen due to dendrites, or they experience capacity reduction due to chemical side reactions between lithium metal and electrolytes. '''What investors are looking for''' Deutsche Bank believes investors are looking for data points to get comfortable with core technology of lithium-metal batteries, path to mass production, and probability of a revenue-generating future that happens in the second half of decade. Thus in the near term, consistent data publishing of new technical milestones will remain critical for QuantumScape stock performance. Earlier this year, QS published a deep-dive into its cells’ fast-charging performance, with data showing its battery cells have completed 400 consecutive 15-minute fast charging (4C) cycles from 10% to 80% of cell capacity, while retaining 80% of the initial energy. QuantumScape believes this represents an industry-first for its kind of battery technology. Deutsche Bank notes that while SES has also demonstrated 80% charging in 15 minutes for its 25+ layer cell, the company is taking a non-solid state lithiummetal approach which then make it difficult to make an apples-to-apples comparison. QS had conducted the test on single-layer prototype battery cells at both 25 °C and 45 °C temperatures, 3.4 atm of pressure and 100% depth of discharge (percentage of the battery that has been discharged relative to the overall capacity of the battery). In comparison, today’s leading lithium-ion EV battery typically need around 30 minutes to fast charge from 10% to 80%. Just as importantly, Deutsche Bank believes investors are looking to assess feasibility massscale production, path to getting there, and eventual timeline of revenue generation. The next 3 exhibits outline targeted commercialization timeline for QS, SES, and Solid Power, respectively. QS’s 20Gwh expansion plant is expected to start in 2026, vs. 2025 for SES’ 10Gwh production line, and 2026 for Solid Power’s high-content silicon anode cell (post 2026 for lithium-metal anode cell). Assuming QS is able to deliver on its technical and manufacturing milestones, Deutsche Bank expects QS to start delivering more meaningful volume, at about 4.5GWh in 2026, with 1Gwh from the QS-1 Pilot line and 3.5Gwh from the QS-1 Expansion line.
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