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QuantumScape
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== Growth plans == QuantumScape is undertaking a multi-layered expansion plan to build manufacturing capacity in-line with its product development roadmap over the coming years. With one engineering assembly line in place already, the company intends to establish a larger pre-pilot line (QS-0) followed by an initial final production line (QS-1). Over time as QS’ battery progressed through A, B, and Csample testing and validation, the company will expand QS-1 to prepare for its broader commercialization with top OEM customers. '''Engineering line in San Jose, CA''' Currently, QuantumScape conducts much of its research and development work out of its headquarters facility in San Jose, California, including an engineering production line where the company produces its initial sample cells for testing and validation. As QS continues to add layers and test the latest iteration of its battery product, all volumes to date have been produced on this line for both internal and external validation with OEM customers and third parties. Over time, QS remains committed to improving the throughput and capability of the assembly line in San Jose, as well as building out additional capacity as in what the company calls “Phase 2” alongside the construction of its next pre-pilot line at QS-0 (set to be located near original engineering line). To do so, QS will be increasingly automating the processes on the pre-production lines in San Jose and preparing the line for larger form factor production as it furthers its multi-layer battery design and development. Management indicated that it is targeting to begin production on Asample cells on the Phase 2 line later this year. '''QS-0 pre-pilot line''' In 2021, QS announced plans to further its pre-pilot production capabilities with the addition of the new QS-0 line in San Jose. Together with the original engineering line in San Jose, QS will look to produce enough cells to support its customers’ testing needs and expected pre-series vehicle volumes over the coming years as it ramps toward broader commercialization. In addition to early volumes, the extra capacity that QS-0 provides will be used to begin exploring non-automotive applications of the technology, and de-risk the eventual ramp up of QS-1 as the company enters is commercialization stage. All in, QuantumScape expects the facility to have capacity for about 200k units of engineering sample cell production annually. In addition, about 10MWh of capacity has already been secured by QS’ second major (undisclosed) OEM partner to begin pre-series production on its vehicles ahead of commercial launch. Having just secured the lease for the facility in April of last year, QS is aiming to begin construction and tooling QS-0 this year in the “implementation phase.” True production of the engineering sample cells off of QS-0 is not expected until 2023, however, with pre-series vehicle testing set to commence soon after. Management expects to commence B-sample cells on the line once it is operational. Volumes will continue to ramp over the duration of the year, accelerating the validation process and allowing the company to further optimize its manufacturing processes before it begins work on QS-1. Altogether, the company plans to spend about $215m in capex on the construction and ramp of QS-0 in 2022. '''QS-1 phased build-out''' QuantumScape’s primary production facility will be QS-1, which will be built out in two phases and represent the company’s first commercial-scale manufacturing facility for its solid-state batteries. Phase one will incorporate the construction of the facility with about 1GWh of capacity annually, or enough to support 10k vehicles assuming 100kWh battery packs. Site selection, design, and construction on the plant is slated to begin this year, followed by equipment installation next year. As the company continues to develop its product, the official start of production is set for late 2023 and will scale volumes through 2024 as it furthers its work alongside OEM partners. QS estimates that the total cost (capex + startup expenses) for the facility will be about $1.6bn. The true inflection point for QS in terms of scale will take place as it builds out the second phase of QS-1, which adds another 20GWh of annual capacity (or enough to support 200k vehicles assuming 100kWh battery packs). Phase two site selection will take place in late 2023, with design and constructing extending through the end of 2024. By 2025, the company will begin installing the necessary equipment at the facility and look to start production by the end of that year before ramping into 2026 as it enters the true commercialization stage of its expansion plan. About 70% of the facility will be used for cell manufacturing, while the remaining 30% will be for the company’s proprietary separator production. Importantly, the QS-1 facility will be owned and operated by QS’ QSV 50/50 joint venture with Volkswagen, with the two parties sharing all revenues and profits from the site’s operations. Similarly, VW will share the capex responsibility to construct and operate the facility as it scales. Alternatively, separator facility will be entirely owned by QS, which will then sell those parts to QSV for integration into the full cell. '''Eventually QS-2''' Once the company has completed the scaling of its initial production line, management intends to begin work on QS-2, which will be its first fully owned production line, with the goal to begin operation in the 2027 timeframe. While exact targets have not yet been disclosed, the new line would serve to meaningfully expand volumes, while allowing the company to capture more value over the process. Deutsche Bank expect the introduction of QS-2 to be a considerable step forward toward the company breaching breakeven profitability in the 2027/2028 timeframe.
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