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QuantumScape
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== Near term objectives == '''Key milestones''' During its 4Q earnings call, QuantumScape announced that it had met all 2021 milestones on schedule, including meeting the technical milestone jointly set with Volkswagen which helped unlocked a $100m investment from the OEM. In addition, QS had sought to demonstrate the ability to make multi-layer cells with similar cycling performance as its single-layer cell; the firm completed its 10-layer cell test in November of 2021. Furthermore, QuantumScape secured the manufacturing space and began construction of its QS-0 pre-pilot facility. Looking ahead to 2022, QuantumScape has set the following targets: # Continue to demonstrate the viability and manufacturability of its proprietary cell format, in preparation for large-scale customer sampling. # Deliver A samples using its proprietary cell format to at least one prospective customer for validation and testing. A-sample represents an important step to finalizing the design and performance specification of its cells. Then looking to 2023, the company plans to produce the next stage of prototype, B-sample, on its QS-0 line – a prerequisite for commercialization in the 2024/2025 timeframe. # Scale up film starts to 8,000 per week (from an average of ~1,800 films per week in 4Q21). This will help demonstrate QS’ ability to scale up testing and pave the path to several dozen layers in its cell format. # Take delivery of QS-0 equipment and stay on track to the start of QS-0 prepilot production in 2023. As part of the mass-manufacturing process, QS plans to deploy a scalable digital architecture throughout its pre-pilot line which will allow the company to record and track individual parts with high precision, develop a data pipeline to use in AI and machine learning for quality control. '''Near term hurdles''' Equipment installation represents a key bottleneck QS is experiencing at present. Receiving the equipment usually doesn’t mark the immediate start of its usage, as the QuantumScape would need to install, test and reengineer them to address shortcomings. As it stands currently, the manufacturing process is very manual and creates inconsistency in output. Once the equipment installation is complete, the company will be able to substantially increase film output, a stepping stone to producing multi-layer cells for testing and ultimately the A-sample for at least one prospective customer by end of this year. '''Opex and capex spending expectations''' QuantumScape’s 2022 capex plan makes significant investment into cell development and scalable production, including continuous flow manufacturing processes featuring increased level of automation, high throughput metrology systems, and scalable digital architecture. The company expects to spend $325m-$375m in capex this year, of which $215m will be planned for the QS-0 and expanded QS-0 campus. Construction of the additional QS-0 campus space will begin in mid-2022. $85m will be spent on the phase 2 engineering line, and $52m will flow into phase 1 of the engineering line and additional projects including the R&D centre in Japan. By 2023, QS expects capital spending related to engineering and QS-0 line to decline significantly, as they will have received majority of equipment for the production line and tracking to 2023 goal of cell sample for that line for use in test vehicles. Capex should ramp again in 2024/2025 as QuantumScape prepares for the QS-1 production line. Deutsche Bank is modelling about $350m in 2022 capex, followed by moderation to $133m in 2023 capex, before this metric rises back up to $300m+ level in spending. QuantumScape also guided to cash operating expenses of $225m-$275m to support growth in hiring and expected volume associated with 2022 product development, customer sampling, and manufacturing process development goals. Looking ahead to 2023, opex spending should grow in-line with headcount growth, approximately in the range of 10%-20% annually. Deutsche Bank expects opex to grow to $370m + next year, while modelling this metric to be in-line with management expectation for this year.
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