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Rivian Automotive, Inc.
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==Valuation== ==== Assumptions ==== This research report aims to evaluate the valuation of Rivian based on available financial data for the years 2021 and 2022. Given the absence of historical data, which complicates the forecasting of financial statements using traditional growth and percentage analysis, the research team has opted to utilize Comparable analysis for making assumptions. In constructing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, Tesla has been chosen as the comparable company. The following assumptions have been employed in the DCF model: These assumptions are based on careful analysis and consideration of relevant factors to ensure a comprehensive and accurate evaluation of Rivian's valuation. It is essential to highlight that these assumptions are subject to change based on future developments and additional data availability. The research team remains committed to refining the analysis as new information becomes accessible, thus ensuring the most up-to-date and reliable valuation for Rivian. {| class="wikitable" |+ !Assumptions !Value |- |Long-term growth rate |4.0% |- |Revenue Growth |41.2% |- |EBITDA |15.6% |- |Depreciation |6.6% |- |Total Cash |36.8% |- |Account Receivables |4.6% |- |Inventories |13.5% |- |Accounts Payable |18.0% |- |Capital Expenditure |10.0% |- |Tax Rate |7.0% |} ==== DCF Analysis ==== {| class="wikitable" ! colspan="9" |Operating Data - (USD 'MM) |- | colspan="9" | |- !'''Year''' !'''2020''' !'''2021''' !'''2022''' !'''2023''' !'''2024''' !'''2025''' !'''2026''' !'''2027''' |- !'''A/F''' !'''Actual''' !'''Actual''' !'''Actual''' !'''Forecast''' !'''Forecast''' !'''Forecast''' !'''Forecast''' !'''Forecast''' |- | | | | | | | | | |- !Revenue | - |55 |1,658 | ''2,341'' | ''3,306'' | ''4,668'' | ''6,591'' | ''9,306'' |- !Revenue Growth % |0.0% |0.0% |2914.5% | ''41.2%'' | ''41.2%'' | ''41.2%'' | ''41.2%'' | ''41.2%'' |- !EBITDA |(1,021) |(4,220) |(6,856) | ''365'' | ''516'' | ''728'' | ''1,028'' | ''1,452'' |- !EBITDA, % |0.0% | -7672.7% | -413.5% | ''15.6%'' | ''15.6%'' | ''15.6%'' | ''15.6%'' | ''15.6%'' |- !Depreciation |29 |197 |652 | ''155'' | ''218'' | ''308'' | ''435'' | ''614'' |- !Depreciation, % |0.0% |358.2% |39.3% | ''6.6%'' | ''6.6%'' | ''6.6%'' | ''6.6%'' | ''6.6%'' |- !EBIT |(1,050) |(4,417) |(7,508) | ''211'' | ''298'' | ''420'' | ''593'' | ''838'' |- !EBIT, % |0.0% | -8030.9% | -452.8% | ''9.0%'' | ''9.0%'' | ''9.0%'' | ''9.0%'' | ''9.0%'' |- | colspan="9" | |- ! colspan="9" |Balance Sheet Data - (USD 'MM) |- | colspan="9" | |- !Year !2020 !2021 !2022 !2023 !2024 !2025 !2026 !2027 |- !A/F !Actual !Actual !Actual !Forecast !Forecast !Forecast !Forecast !Forecast |- | | | | | | | | | |- !Total Cash | - |18,133 |11,568 | ''862'' | ''1,216'' | ''1,718'' | ''2,425'' | ''3,425'' |- !Total Cash, % |0.0% |32969.1% |697.7% | ''36.8%'' | ''36.8%'' | ''36.8%'' | ''36.8%'' | ''36.8%'' |- !Account Receivables | - |26 |102 | ''108'' | ''152'' | ''215'' | ''303'' | ''428'' |- !Account Receivables, % |0.0% |47.3% |6.2% | ''4.6%'' | ''4.6%'' | ''4.6%'' | ''4.6%'' | ''4.6%'' |- !Inventories | - |274 |1,348 | ''316'' | ''446'' | ''630'' | ''890'' | ''1,256'' |- !Inventories, % |0.0% |498.2% |81.3% | ''13.5%'' | ''13.5%'' | ''13.5%'' | ''13.5%'' | ''13.5%'' |- !Accounts Payable | - |483 |1,000 | ''421'' | ''595'' | ''840'' | ''1,186'' | ''1,675'' |- !Accounts Payable, % |0.0% |878.2% |60.3% | ''18.0%'' | ''18.0%'' | ''18.0%'' | ''18.0%'' | ''18.0%'' |- !Capital Expenditure | - |(1,794) |(1,369) | ''(234)'' | ''(331)'' | ''(467)'' | ''(659)'' | ''(931)'' |- !Capital Expenditure, % |0.0% |3261.8% |82.6% | ''10.0%'' | ''10.0%'' | ''10.0%'' | ''10.0%'' | ''10.0%'' |- | colspan="9" | |- ! colspan="9" |Build Up Free Cash Flow - (USD 'MM) |- | colspan="9" | |- !Year !2020 !2021 !2022 !2023 !2024 !2025 !2026 !2027 |- !A/F !Actual !Actual !Actual !Forecast !Forecast !Forecast !Forecast !Forecast |- | | | | | | | | | |- |Revenue | - |55 |1,658 | ''2,341'' | ''3,306'' | ''4,668'' | ''6,591'' | ''9,306'' |- |EBITDA |(1,021) |(4,220) |(6,856) | ''365'' | ''516'' | ''728'' | ''1,028'' | ''1,452'' |- |EBIT |(1,050) |(4,417) |(7,508) | ''211'' | ''298'' | ''420'' | ''593'' | ''838'' |- |Tax Rate, % |0.0% | -9.4% | -0.1% | ''7.0%'' | ''7.0%'' | ''7.0%'' | ''7.0%'' | ''7.0%'' |- |EBIAT |(1,047) |(4,833) |(7,512) | ''196'' | ''277'' | ''391'' | ''552'' | ''779'' |- |Depreciation |29 |197 |652 | ''155'' | ''218'' | ''308'' | ''435'' | ''614'' |- |Accounts Receivable | - |(26) |(76) | ''(6)'' | ''(44)'' | ''(63)'' | ''(88)'' | ''(125)'' |- |Inventories | - |(274) |(1,074) | ''1,032'' | ''(130)'' | ''(184)'' | ''(260)'' | ''(367)'' |- |Accounts Payable | - |483 |517 | ''(579)'' | ''174'' | ''245'' | ''346'' | ''489'' |- |Capital Expenditure | - |(1,794) |(1,369) | ''(234)'' | ''(331)'' | ''(467)'' | ''(659)'' | ''(931)'' |- |UFCF |(1,018) |(6,247) |(8,862) | ''564'' | ''163'' | ''231'' | '' 326'' | ''460'' |- |WACC, % |0.0% |0.0% |0.0% | ''14.9%'' | ''14.9%'' | ''14.9%'' | ''14.9%'' | ''14.9%'' |- |PV UFCF |0 |0 |0 |491 |124 |152 |187 |230 |} {| class="wikitable" ! colspan="5" |Valuation - (USD 'MM) |- |Terminal Value (Perpetuity Growth method) - (USD 'MM) | | rowspan="6" | |Intrinsic Value |0 |- |Long-term growth rate, % |4.0% |Enterprise Value - (USD 'MM) |3,385 |- |WACC, % |14.9% |Net Debt - (USD 'MM) | -9,756 |- |Free cash flow (t + 1) |478 |Equity Value - (USD 'MM) |13,141 |- |Terminal Value |4,401 |Shares Outstanding, MM |913 |- |Present Value of Terminal Value |2,201 |Equity Value Per Share, USD |14.39 |}
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