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Rocket Lab
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=== Opportunities beyond launch services === Beyond launch services, Deutsche Bank thinks there is an opportunity in the '''space systems market'''. Space systems involve providing hardware infrastructure for satellite development so customers can focus on creating value-add software and features for the payload instead of manufacturing satellites. This includes satellite components and constellation management services such as enabling the satellite to move around in space with propulsion. This should eventually eliminate bespoke investment in satellite bus development, creating more standardization. Deutsche Bank estimates this could be a $20bn market and larger rocket companies will look to consolidate the supply chain. For example, Rocket Lab acquired Sinclair Interplanetary last year, gaining strong capabilities in reaction wheels and star trackers that support rapid-schedule small satellite programs. Another opportunity is the '''satellite data and analytics market'''. These companies design and operate satellites in space, leveraging software/analytics to sell subscription services to customers, often to provide insights about climate, weather, maritime, aviation and agriculture. These are customers for rocket launch companies. In theory, this market could be worth hundreds of billions, but Deutsche Bank does not think it is entirely serviceable, in part due to conflicts of interest. Deutsche Bank estimates the SAM for this market is at least around $10-15bn with potential to grow to $30-40bn by the end of the decade. Separately, Deutsche Bank sees a '''space tourism''' market being cultivated by Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin. This will cater to ultra-high net worth individuals for the foreseeable future where Deutsche Bank estimates the TAM to be around $5-10bn longer term (295k UHNW individuals globally x $250k ticket price x 10% willing to travel to space per year). Longer term, rocket technology could potentially enable intra-earth trips to be much faster and cheaper using supersonic/hypersonic point-to-point travel. For example, SpaceX envisions a trip from New York City to Shanghai occurring in 40 minutes. There will certainly be many regulatory and environmental hurdles to work through but Deutsche Bank believes aviation is ripe for disruption after decades of stagnation. '''Figure 10: Data and analytics potential TAM'''<ref>Source : Allied Market Research, Planet Labs.</ref> [[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 11 Image 0001.jpg|600px]] {| class="wikitable" |+'''Figure 11: Space technology universe'''<ref>*SPAC transaction management forecasts **latest private market round valuation Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, Company reports, Deutsche Bank</ref> ! rowspan="2" |Rocket launch ! rowspan="2" |Ticker ! rowspan="2" |Stock price ! rowspan="2" |Market cap ($m) ! rowspan="2" |Enterprise value ! colspan="4" |EV/sales ! colspan="4" |EV/Ebitda |- !2022E !2022E !2022E !2022E !2022E !2022E !2022E !2022E |- |Astra |ASTR |9.37 |2,413 |2,027 |33.9x |11.0x |4.6x |2.3x |<nowiki>-15.9x</nowiki> |<nowiki>-40.1x</nowiki> |17.3x |5.8x |- |ABL** |Private | |1,300 | | | | | | | | | |- |Firefly** |Private | |1,000 | | | | | | | | | |- |Relativity** |Private | |4,200 | | | | | | | | | |- |Rocket Lab* |RKLB |15.89 |7,153 |6,530 |35.9x |23.1x |14.1x |8.4x |<nowiki>-382.4x </nowiki> |216.4x |58.6x |27.5x |- |SpaceX** |Private | |74,000 | | | | | | | | | |- |Virgin Orbit* |NGCA |9.90 |3,632 |3,186 |45.5x |9.6x |3.5x |2.1x |<nowiki>-21.1x </nowiki> |<nowiki>-187.4x </nowiki> |13.9x |6.3x |- | colspan="13" |Systems & infrastructure |- |Momentus* |MNTS |10.27 |892 |840 |5.5x |1.4x |0.7x |0.4x |<nowiki>-46.7x </nowiki> |7.9x |2.1x |.7x |- |Redwire* |RDW |11.07 |753 |693 |2.9x |1.6x |0.9x |0.5x |21.6x |10.8x |5.6x |2.8x |- | colspan="13" |Data & analytics |- |BlackSky* |BKSY |12.80 |1,891 |1,520 |13.3x |6.7x |3.9x |2.8x |1519.6x |21.1x |8.6x |6.2x |- |Planet Labs* |DMYQ |9.99 |2,757 |2,249 |11.8x |7.8x |5.0x |3.2x |<nowiki>-57.7x</nowiki> |<nowiki>-224.9x </nowiki> |33.6x |12.0x |- |Maxar |MAXR |29.82 |2,162 |4,473 |2.4x |2.2x |2.1x |2.x |9.3x |8.1x |7.0x |6.7x |- |Satellogic* |CFV |9.86 |1,190 |916 |19.5x |6.9x |2.5x |1.2x |<nowiki>-458.1x </nowiki> |18.7x |4.7x |1.9x |- |Spire* |SPIR |11.41 |1,868 |1,460 |12.8x |6.4x |3.1x |1.6x |243.3x |22.1x |7.4x |3.4x |- |Tourism | | | | | | | | | | | | |- |Virgin Galactic |SPCE |24.49 |6,300 |5,775 |501.x |102.3x |30.1x |14.5x |<nowiki>-26.2x</nowiki> | -39.4x |<nowiki>-177.7x</nowiki> |38.8x |}
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