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Rocket Lab
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=== Sizing the final frontier TAM === The overall βSpace TAMβ is generally agreed upon by industry participants and investors to be large and growing (i.e., $350-400bn now with potential to be over a trillion by end of the decade). Deutsche Bank takes a more precise approach by focusing on the launch services portion, which is the most near-term and direct revenue stream for companies such as Rocket Lab. Space launch services involve the delivering of satellites and other equipment into orbit - all the design, manufacturing, and testing related to the rocket. To achieve a successful launch, a rocket must not only make it into space but also carry a payload to a certain destination and deploy a satellite into orbit. Other missions involve providing supplies to a space station or landing on the Moon (NASA Artemis Program). For 2021, Deutsche Bank estimates the global launch market will come in at around $8bn and this will likely grow to $38bn by 2030, representing a 20% CAGR. Importantly, Deutsche Bank expects the market to be supply constrained for the rest of the decade as demand from corporates and governments increases. A clear leader in small rockets, Rocket Lab has focused on small rockets since its inception, successfully launching its Electron rocket 19 times out of 21 attempts into space, leading to 105 satellites deployed and even recovering 2 rockets, which can be reused in the future after refurbishment, reducing costs. Rocket Lab is the second-most frequently launched private company after SpaceX. Moving forward, Rocket Lab announced plans to build a larger rocket called Neutron, which will have a 8,000kg payload capacity vs. Electron's 300kg, and be designed to be a constellation launcher while also being able to carry humans onboard. Positioning-wise, Deutsche Bank regards Rocket Lab as the clear #2 behind SpaceX, with a more practical focus on being "Gatekeeper" to orbit starting with small rockets (pathfinder and national security missions), and then expanding into medium-class rockets (constellations). Beyond the launch business, Rocket Lab is also striving to become a satellite platform, fully leveraging its ability to provide customers access to space. This includes selling its Photon family of spacecraft, a portfolio of standalone components, engineering/design services, and on-orbit constellation management services.
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