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Rocket Lab
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=== Breaking down the launch market === In its framework, Deutsche Bank segments the launch TAM into 4 sizes: * Small (<1,500kg): mostly dedicated satellite launches going forward. * Medium (1,500-8,500kg): high usage for dedicated constellation launches. * Heavy (8,500-30,000kg): large satellites, ride-share and some dedicated launches for large constellations. * Super heavy (>30,000kg): ride-share; Moon and Mars missions. {| class="wikitable" |+Figure 6: Launch TAM by rocket type<ref>*includes Starlink, China, Russia, etc… Source : Allied market research, Company reports, Deutsche Bank, Relativity.</ref> !($m) !2021E !2025E !2030E |- |Small (<1,500kg) |325 |2,019 |3,240 |- |Medium (1,500-8,500kg) |2,000 |4,000 |7,000 |- |Heavy (8,500-30,000kg) |5,175 |7,000 |14,000 |- |Super heavy (>30,000kg) |0 |1,981 |13,260 |- |Total |7,500 |15,000 |37,500 |} Deutsche Bank estimates the small rocket portion of the TAM is currently just $300-400m but this could grow rapidly to $2bn by mid-decade and to $3-4bn by 2030. This is predicated on small satellites making up +90% of deployments, average small sat payload weight increasing, and dedicated launches increasing as a % of the total. Deutsche Bank notes some government missions are not allowed to be part of ride-share, so they would have to fly dedicated even if price/kg is much higher. {| class="wikitable" |+Figure 7: Small satellite market forecast<ref>Source: BryceTech, Company reports, Deutsche Bank.</ref> ! !2020 !2025E !2030E |- |Satellites deployed |1,282 |5,000 |6,000 |- |x % small size |94% |95% |96% |- |x Avg payload mass (kg) |120 |170 |250 |- |= Total payload |144,720 |807,500 |1,440,000 |- |x % dedicated launch |5% |25% |30% |- |x Avg cost per kg ($) |25,000 |10,000 |7,500 |- |= Small launch TAM ($m) |181 |2,019 |3,240 |} Ultimately, Deutsche Bank still sees medium/heavy rockets capturing the bulk of payload mass and wallet share due to scale (SpaceX Falcon 9 already getting <$3k/kg cost or $5k for ride-share, vs. small rockets >$20k). Deutsche Bank thinks the distinction between medium and heavy may get somewhat blurred going forward because there will be overlap of payloads. Technically, heavy rockets can service ALL the payloads, so it becomes a timing vs. weight optimization exercise (and also volumetric capacity for certain satellites). For the majority of small satellites, these will be part of constellations where batches of satellites will be launched to different orbital planes; this means a medium-size rocket may be more ideal than heavy. For example, a Telestat Lightspeed broadband constellation has 220 satellites (700kg each) operating at 20 different orbital planes and 11 satellites per plane or 7.7 ton payload. For superheavy rockets such as SpaceX’s upcoming Starship, Deutsche Bank thinks these will be better utilized for Moon transportation and deeper space missions (Mars). To illustrate this, SpaceX recently won NASA’s Artemis Program award to return to the moon; this will involve using multiple Starships in LEO as fuel tankers and also a customized Starship for lunar landing. {| class="wikitable" |+'''Figure 8: Launch companies by rocket size<ref>Source: Company reports, Deutsche Bank. *some companies make multiple sizes of rockets **ULA is joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin.</ref>''' !Size !Companies |- |Small (<1,500kg) |ABL, Astra, Relativity, Firefly, Rocket Lab, Virgin Orbit |- |Medium (1,500-8,500kg) |Energia, Firefly, Northrop Grumman, Rocket Lab |- |Heavy (8,500-30,000kg) |Arianespace, CASC, Relativity, ULA**, SpaceX |- |Super heavy (>30,000kg) |Blue Origin, SpaceX |} '''Figure 9: Launches with and without small satellites'''<ref>Source : BryceTech.</ref> [[File:20210924 Deutsche Bank RKLB Rocket Lab- The Gatekeepers of Space- Initiating with Bu Page 10 Image 0001.jpg|600px]]
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