Ryanair Holdings plc: Difference between revisions
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|2023 | |2023 | ||
|2 063.22 | |2,063.22 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2022 | |2022 | ||
|1 010.68 | |1,010.68 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2021 | |2021 | ||
|( | |(3,072.54) | ||
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|2020 | |2020 | ||
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|2016 | |2016 | ||
|1 133.79 | |1,133.79 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2015 | |2015 | ||
|1 143.06 | |1,143.06 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2014 | |2014 | ||
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|2012 | |2012 | ||
|1 006.38 | |1,006.38 | ||
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|2011 | |2011 | ||
|( | |(146.75) | ||
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|2010 | |2010 | ||
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|2024 | |2024 | ||
|2 317.00 | |2,317.00 | ||
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|2025 | |2025 | ||
|2 601.99 | |2,601.99 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2026 | |2026 | ||
|2 922.03 | |2,922.03 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2027 | |2027 | ||
|3 281.44 | |3,281.44 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2028 | |2028 | ||
|3 685.06 | |3,685.06 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2029 | |2029 | ||
|4 138.32 | |4,138.32 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2030 | |2030 | ||
|4 647.33 | |4,647.33 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2031 | |2031 | ||
|5 218.96 | |5,218.96 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2032 | |2032 | ||
|5 860.89 | |5,860.89 | ||
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|2033 | |2033 | ||
|6 581.78 | |6,581.78 | ||
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|2024 | |2024 | ||
|2 048.08 | |2,048.08 | ||
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|2025 | |2025 | ||
|2 033.06 | |2,033.06 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2026 | |2026 | ||
|2 018.14 | |2,018.14 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2027 | |2027 | ||
|2 003.33 | |2,003.33 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2028 | |2028 | ||
|1 988.64 | |1,988.64 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2029 | |2029 | ||
|1 974.05 | |1,974.05 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2030 | |2030 | ||
|1 959.56 | |1,959.56 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2031 | |2031 | ||
|1 945.19 | |1,945.19 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2032 | |2032 | ||
|1 930.92 | |1,930.92 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2033 | |2033 | ||
|1 916.75 | |1,916.75 | ||
|} | |} | ||
Latest revision as of 13:07, 11 October 2023
Ryanair Holdings plc and its subsidiaries stand as a prominent provider of scheduled passenger airline services across various European nations, including Ireland, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Germany. Beyond its fundamental airline operations, the company delves into a myriad of ancillary services, offering non-flight scheduled and Internet-related services, in-flight sales of beverages, food, duty-free items, and merchandise. Additionally, it facilitates the marketing of car hire, accommodation services, and travel insurance through its digital platforms – its website and mobile app.
Moreover, Ryanair extends its reach by offering a comprehensive suite of services that encompasses aircraft and passenger handling, ticketing, and essential maintenance and repair services. The company also endorses a variety of airport-based services and travel extras like car parking, fast-track, airport transfers, and local attractions and activities, all accessible via its online platforms. Gift vouchers are also available for purchase.
As of June 30, 2022, Ryanair showcased a robust principal fleet, comprising approximately 483 Boeing 737 aircraft and 29 Airbus A320 aircraft. The airline facilitates roughly 3,000 short-haul flights daily, connecting around 225 airports and steadfastly serving its vast customer base. Established in 1985, Ryanair Holdings plc proudly anchors its headquarters in Swords, Ireland, persevering as a pivotal player in the European airline industry.
ValuationEdit
Discounted Cash Flow AnalysisEdit
Historical Cash Flows:Edit
Ryan Air's annual free cash flows from the past 10 years[12]:
Year | Annual Free Cashflow (£ Mn) |
---|---|
2023 | 2,063.22 |
2022 | 1,010.68 |
2021 | (3,072.54) |
2020 | 831.96 |
2019 | 545.19 |
2018 | 892.85 |
2017 | 523.90 |
2016 | 1,133.79 |
2015 | 1,143.06 |
2014 | 722.26 |
2013 | 918.44 |
2012 | 1,006.38 |
2011 | (146.75) |
2010 | 52.45 |
2009 | 36.00 |
Projected Cash Flows:Edit
Projected cash flow values for the next 10 years, based on an earnings growth prediction rate of 12.3%[13]:
Year | Projected cash flow (£Mn) |
---|---|
2024 | 2,317.00 |
2025 | 2,601.99 |
2026 | 2,922.03 |
2027 | 3,281.44 |
2028 | 3,685.06 |
2029 | 4,138.32 |
2030 | 4,647.33 |
2031 | 5,218.96 |
2032 | 5,860.89 |
2033 | 6,581.78 |
Determining a Discount Rate:Edit
A WACC value was calculated as follows:
UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield = 4.43% (government data)
Beta value = 1.45[14]
Assumed market return premium = 6% (government data)
WACC = [risk-free rate] + [beta value * assumed market return premium]
WACC = [4.43%] + [1.45 * 6%]
WACC = 13.13%
Present value of predicted future cash flows:Edit
The present value of each predicted cash flow (over the next 10 years), after the discount rate had been applied as follows:
Present value of cash flow = { predicted cash flow } / { (1 + WACC)^(number of years) }
Year | Present value of predicted cash flow (£Mn) |
---|---|
2024 | 2,048.08 |
2025 | 2,033.06 |
2026 | 2,018.14 |
2027 | 2,003.33 |
2028 | 1,988.64 |
2029 | 1,974.05 |
2030 | 1,959.56 |
2031 | 1,945.19 |
2032 | 1,930.92 |
2033 | 1,916.75 |
Net present / intrinsic value of Ryan Air:Edit
The net present value was calculated by summing the present values of predicted cash flows over the next 10 years:
Net present value = £19 817.71 Mn (£19.82 Bn)
Comparison with present market cap of Ryan Air:Edit
Given that the net present value (£19.82 Bn) calculated from the DCF analysis is less than the current market cap of Ryan Air (£18.98 Bn - as of October 2023[15]) - it is possible that Ryan Air is potentially undervalued, calling for a sensitivity analysis to be carried out.
References and notesEdit
- ↑ Aldous, Richard (2013). Tony Ryan: Ireland's Aviator. Gill & Macmillan Ltd. p. 80. ISBN 978-0-7171-5781-5.
- ↑ "Ryanair to relaunch at Billund Airport with 26 destinations". The Local. 5 May 2021.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2
- ↑
- ↑
- ↑ "Ryanair to start flying from Arlanda this autumn". The Local. 6 May 2021.
- ↑
- ↑
- ↑
- ↑
- ↑
- ↑ https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RYAAY/ryanair-holdings/free-cash-flow
- ↑ https://simplywall.st/stocks/ie/transportation/ise-rya/ryanair-holdings-shares/future#:~:text=Ryanair%20Holdings%20is%20forecasted%20to,be%2025.3%25%20in%203%20years.
- ↑ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RYAAY/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA-QsnB5Z3NE6_hbXttVYrUnEYFEWtxrdExBHRP0wG2Rwy_Q5T0mlSLNPF2WwFhQbDYfevMryfNXYe8P_oYpm8Xt7ytyiQCF8KpRHed-kXXUK8BorxHOIxb-yyG92X5Dx2IfOOw3sPZlEWgKeH5FetsTHRtMu9XR-g5kdP4aoX-1
- ↑ https://companiesmarketcap.com/ryanair/marketcap/#:~:text=Market%20cap%3A%20%2422.31%20Billion,cap%20according%20to%20our%20data.