Open main menu
Home
Random
Donate
Recent changes
Special pages
Community portal
Preferences
About Stockhub
Disclaimers
Search
User menu
Talk
Contributions
Create account
Log in
Editing
Scandion Oncology
(section)
Warning:
You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you
log in
or
create an account
, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
Anti-spam check. Do
not
fill this in!
== Valuation == Edison Investment Research values Scandion Oncology at SEK586.5m or SEK18.3 per share. Edison Investment Research's valuation is based on a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of SCO-101 and includes cash and cash equivalents of DKK87.97m at end-March 2022. Edison Investment Research's method includes the valuation for SCO-101 in both last-line mCRC (peak sales $295.2m, rNPV of SEK8.5 per share) and metastatic PC (peak sales $685.0m, rNPV of SEK5.8 per share) in both the US and EU5 markets, using a discount rate of 12.5%. Until management confirms its intention to treat mutant-RAS type patients through the initiation of a study in this population, given the data gathered in the CORIST study to date, Edison Investment Research only includes wtRAS patients in its valuation for mCRC. The assumptions used in Edison Investment Research's valuation are presented in Exhibit 8. {| class="wikitable" |+'''Exhibit 8: Assumptions for rNPV valuation of SCO-101<ref name=":1" />''' !Indication !Comments |- |Last-line mCRC | * Target population: Edison Investment Research assumes an incidence rate of 0.039% for colorectal cancer in both the United States and EU5 population with 30% of CRC patients transitioning to third-line treatment, 50% of patients are wtRAS, and Edison Investment Research assumes peak penetration of 20%. * Pricing: $50k per patient per year in the US with a 50% discount in EU5, peak sales reached in five years. * Trial timeline and R&D costs: DKK35m in FY22 to complete CORIST; DKK75m in FY23 to begin pivotal Phase II/III trials; out-licensed globally in 2024 with partner then assuming full R&D costs: launch in 2026. |- |mPC | * Target population: 62k patients diagnosed in US per year; 95k patients in EU5. At diagnosis 80% of patients have inoperable tumours; 50% are stage IV. Edison Investment Research assumes a peak penetration of 15% among stage IV inoperable tumour segment. * Pricing: $50k per patient per year in the US with a 50% discount in EU5, peak sales reached in five years. * Trial timeline and R&D costs: DKK17.5m in FY22 to complete PANTAX: DKK32m in FY23 to begin randomised Phase II trials: out-license in 2023; launch in 2028. |} Edison Investment Research's rNPV assumes a licensing deal for SCO-101 in EU5 and the United States is completed in 2024, with Scandion funding randomised Phase II development work until mid-2024, before the partner assumes responsibility for all subsequent R&D and commercialisation expenses. Based on an analysis of recent Phase II and III licensing deals in CRC (Exhibit 9, EvaluatePharma), Edison Investment Research assumes a total deal value of $200m; consisting of an upfront payment of $20m, development milestones of $60m and sales milestones of $120m over the period of patent protection, which Edison Investment Research includes in its rNPV. {| class="wikitable" |+Exhibit 9: Recent licensing deals in colorectal cancer<ref name=":0" /> !Deal date !Company !Product !Deal partner !Status on deal date !Upfront payment ($m) !Deal value ($m) |- |01/06/2021 |Zai Lab |Adagrasib |Mirati Therapeutics |Phase III |65 |338 |- |20/01/2021 |Elpiscience |ES104 |TRIGR Therapeutics |Phase II |7 |117 |- |07/12/2020 |3D Medicines |Zeltherva |Sellas Life Sciences Group |Phase III |8 |202 |- |25/06/2019 |Ono Pharmaceutical |CPI-613 |Rafael Pharmaceuticals |Phase III |13 |163 |- |03/12/2018 |TRIGR Therapeutics |ES104 |ABL Bio |Phase II |5 |595 |- |14/08/2018 |HLB LifeScience |Aitan |Bukwang Pharmaceutical |Phase III |9 |37 |- |03/04/2018 |Pint Pharma |Nerlynx |Puma Biotechnology |Phase II |10 |35 |- |12/02/2018 |OncXerna Therapeutics |Bavituximab |Avid Bioservices |Phase II |8 |103 |- |Average (mean) | | | | |16 |199 |} Further, given the respective stages of development, Edison Investment Research assumes a success rate of 20% for mCRC and 15% mPC. From these assumptions (Exhibit 10), Edison Investment Research's valuation for Scandion Oncology is composed of 47% mCRC, 32% mPC and 21% cash. Edison notes that if Scandion successfully repositions SCO-101 into second-line mCRC, the relative portion of its valuation assigned to CRC could increase dramatically. {| class="wikitable" |+Exhibit 10: Scandion Oncology rNPV valuation<ref name=":1" /> !Product !Indication !Launch !Peak !Peak sales ($m) !Value (SEKm) !Probability !rNPV (SEKm) !rNPV/share (SEK) |- |SCO101 |mCRC |2026 |2030 |295.2 |1,478.2 |20% |274.1 |8.5 |- |SCO101 |PC |2029 |2033 |685.0 |1,452.5 |15% |185.9 |5.8 |- | colspan="9" | |- |Net cash at 31 March 2021 | | | | |125.7 |100% |125.7 |3.9 |- |Valuation | | | | |3,025.2 | |586.5 |18.3 |}
Summary:
Please note that all contributions to Stockhub may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see
Stockhub:Copyrights
for details).
Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel
Editing help
(opens in new window)