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Seraphim Space Investment Trust
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== Market overview: New space, from disruption to revolution == Seraphim Space primarily operates in the βnew spaceβ market, which has developed rapidly over the last decade; commercialisation in space has accelerated. In 2020, the overall space market generated revenues of around $370bn (source: Satellite Industry Association/SIA), of which the commercial satellite industry accounted for 73% of the total, at $271bn. The SIA breaks down this $271bn in 2020 between ground equipment $135.3bn (50% of the total), satellite services $117.8bn (44% of the total, of which around 75% is for television), satellite manufacturing $12.2bn (5%) and the launch industry $5.3bn (2%). The global megatrends of sustainability, climate change, communication, connectivity, mobility and asset tracking are driving increasing demand for the acquisition and transmission of space data, facilitated by increasing capability and lower costs of participation. Historically geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellites typically weighed several tonnes, with very long lead times and cost several hundreds of millions of dollars to launch and deploy. Their service lives are typically around 15 years. Advances in technology have enabled the development of highly capable but much smaller payloads on smaller satellite platforms weighing 5β150kg that are suitable for deployment in low earth orbit (LEO) and cost a few hundred thousand dollars to a few million dollars. These are able to provide increasingly timely and accurate acquisition and transmission of data. With a typical service life of five years, the rapid pace of technology development is captured as replacement satellites are deployed with upgraded payloads. In addition, there has been a proliferation of new commercial launch vehicles over the last 20 years, which has driven down launch cost to less than $5k per kilogram. In combination these two drivers have led to the development of the small satellite segment suitable for deployment in LEO constellations along with a variety of supporting technologies to provide the backbone infrastructure of such networks both on the ground and in space. Only around 13,000 satellites have been launched since Sputnik in the early 1960s at the start of the space age. Since 2010 the number of small satellites (defined as weighing <500kg) launched has been a relatively small but growing number averaging <200 launches pa. Of some 3,400 satellites operating in 2021, around 2,500 have been deployed since 2019, the vast majority of which are small satellites. Over the next 10 years the number of new small satellites launched by the more than 200 participants is expected to exceed 100,000 but could be much higher. The mega constellations being deployed by SpaceX and OneWeb are aspiring to deploy 100,000 satellites in that period. The disruption does not mean the incumbent space market is technologically stagnant, but previous preconceptions are certainly challenged and are being disrupted as the global demand for data in many domains continues to grow, but the costs of participation are also reduced. Several fixed satellite service companies are participating in their own projects for applications such as support for the IoT, and governments are also seeking capability in the small satellite segment to augment requirements. Investment to support start-up space investment rose sharply during the last decade, both in value and number. Private investment in space technology reached $12.1bn for 2021, beating the record for 2020, which was itself a record-breaking year. Q4 saw close to $4.5bn in investment, and record-breaking volume of 128 deals. The risks in the new space segment are not dissimilar to historical ones, with project delays, launch failures, deployment problems and financing all still factors. Some new issues are apparent such as space debris. In addition, the affordability of participation access is leading to an expanding number of new entrants across the market, as countries recognise the ability to meet their own data requirements. While the space market revenues can be divided by activity into four main segments dominated by services and ground equipment, Seraphim Space identifies around 35 segments. It is positioning itself to invest in early movers in various markets segments where it believes sizeable and profitable businesses can be built, while excluding certain segments where it believes the economics are challenging, for example the launch category.
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