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== Summary ==
== Summary ==


* Sirius Real Estate, the FTSE 250 real estate investment company, has made eight material announcements since our last report on the company (on 12th April 2022).
* Sirius Real Estate, the FTSE 250 real estate investment company, has made eight noteworthy announcements since our last report (on 12th April 2022).
*For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has performed exceptionally well in the six months ended 30th September 2022, growing funds from operations (FFO) by 47% over the period.  
*For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has performed exceptionally well in the six months ended 30th September 2022, growing funds from operations (FFO) by 47% over the period.
*Accordingly, we have updated our forecasts, and estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate over the next 12-months is 57%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £157,000 in 12-months time.
*Accordingly, we have updated our forecasts, and estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate over the next 12-months is 197%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £197,000 in 12-months time.
*We note that the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low', with the company's shares having an adjusted beta<ref name=":0">Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Sirius's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is 10% or less above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in the company is considered to be relatively 'low' (1.6%<10%). For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. In terms of the benchmark, we suggest using the iShares MSCI World ETF. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref> that is 1.6% above the market (1.016 vs. 1).
*We note that the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low', with the company's shares having an adjusted beta<ref name=":0">Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Sirius's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is 10% or less above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in the company is considered to be relatively 'low' (1.6%<10%). For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. In terms of the benchmark, we suggest using the iShares MSCI World ETF. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref> that is 1.6% above the market (1.016 vs. 1).
*All-in-all, assuming that a suitable return level in the next 12 months is 10% or more, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
*All-in-all, assuming that a suitable return level in the next 12 months is 10% or more, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
Line 50: Line 50:
During the six month period, revenue increased by 47.7% to €130.6 million (H1 FY2022: €88.4 million), mainly driven by higher rental and service charge. In Germany, like-for-like annualised rent roll improved by 2.4% to €115.2 million (H1 FY2022: €112.5 million), and in the United Kingdom, by 4.1% to €46.5 million (H1 FY2022: €44.7 million). Profit before tax decreased by 3% to €75.7 million (H1 FY2022: €78.2 million).
During the six month period, revenue increased by 47.7% to €130.6 million (H1 FY2022: €88.4 million), mainly driven by higher rental and service charge. In Germany, like-for-like annualised rent roll improved by 2.4% to €115.2 million (H1 FY2022: €112.5 million), and in the United Kingdom, by 4.1% to €46.5 million (H1 FY2022: €44.7 million). Profit before tax decreased by 3% to €75.7 million (H1 FY2022: €78.2 million).


Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million) and debt at €993 million (H2 FY2022: €996 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million).  
Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million).  


Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period. cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents).
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period. cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents).
Line 59: Line 59:


Given the rising interest rates and the uncertainty that this and the many other factors affecting the German and UK property markets are causing at the moment, the company has prioritised improving its debt ratios and building up its cash reserves. Net LTV, which reduces the loan balance by free cash (excluding restricted cash balances) in its calculation, was 41.0% (FY2022: 41.6%) whilst interest cover at EBITDA level was 8.1x as at 30th September 2022 (FY2022: 7.3x). The group added that it's fully committed to continue reducing its net LTV to be well within 40% or below in the near term.
Given the rising interest rates and the uncertainty that this and the many other factors affecting the German and UK property markets are causing at the moment, the company has prioritised improving its debt ratios and building up its cash reserves. Net LTV, which reduces the loan balance by free cash (excluding restricted cash balances) in its calculation, was 41.0% (FY2022: 41.6%) whilst interest cover at EBITDA level was 8.1x as at 30th September 2022 (FY2022: 7.3x). The group added that it's fully committed to continue reducing its net LTV to be well within 40% or below in the near term.
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+Consolidated Income Statement
== Reaffirmed Investment Rating ==
!
On the 7th November 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that the rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed the company's BBB investment grade rating with 'Stable Outlook' (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating).
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
 
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
In its rating, Fitch noted that it expects Sirius's income to remain stable, due to an active focus on occupancy and low affordable rents for the company's out-of-town locations. It also highlighted the benefits of the Sirius operating platform and the resilience of its core, high-yielding portfolio. Fitch anticipates that total average portfolio occupancy levels will remain above 80%.
!Movement (%)
 
|-
== Early refinancing of next major debt expiry ==
|'''Rental Income'''
On 6th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed the early refinancing of the the company's next major debt expiry, a €170 million facility with Berlin Hyp AG, approximately one year in advance of the facility's due date.  
|'''79.2'''
 
|'''49.6'''
The refinancing comprises a new 7-year, €170 million facility at a fixed interest rate of 4.26%, which will replace and redeem the existing facility upon its expiry on 31 October 2023.
|'''+60%'''
 
|-
As of 30 September 2022, the group had a total of €993 million of outstanding debt, €750 million of which is unsecured. The remaining €243 million comprised mortgage-backed debt, of which the most significant tranche is the newly refinanced €170 million Berlin Hyp AG facility referred to above.
|Titanium income
 
|3.5
This refinancing facility extends the group's total weighted average debt expiry from 3.8 years to 5.0 years. When the new facility commences just over a year from now, the group's weighted average cost of debt will increase from 1.4% to 1.9%.
|3.4  
 
|
The company has €1.6 billion of unencumbered assets and in excess of €138 million of free cash available. Within the next 12 months, Sirius has a total of €35 million of debt expiring, which it is confident of either extending terms with the existing lenders, replacing with new lenders or paying down.
|-
 
|Service charge irrecoverable costs
== Acquisitions and disposals update ==
|(3.7)
On 4th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed three acquisitions in Germany, for €44.6 million.
|(1.7)
 
|
These acquisitions were all notarised prior to the end of June and have been predominantly funded using capital recycled from three strategic disposals in Germany and the UK for a combined €33.6 million.
|-
 
|Non-recoverable maintenance
The disposals have been made at a premium to book value.
|(2.5)
 
|(1.7)
The three disposals were of assets that offered limited further growth opportunities due to location and/or condition, and comprised:
|
 
|-
The notarisation of a €1.0 million 3,200 sqm non-income producing land plot in Heiligenhaus, Germany which had a book value of €250,000 at the time of notarisation. This asset is being sold to a supermarket chain as part of its expansion plans, with the transaction expected to complete in January 2023.
|'''Net Operating Income'''
 
|'''76.5'''
The three new acquisitions totalling €44.6 million currently generate a combined total of €2.3 million of rental income and €1.6 million of net operating profit annually. The three acquired assets have a combined occupancy of just 54% and offer a range of avenues for Sirius to leverage its significant value creation expertise to grow rental income. The acquired assets comprise:
|'''49.6'''
 
|'''+54%'''
# A €39.8 million (including costs) mixed-use property in Düsseldorf, Germany, situated 2.6 km from the city's international airport. The property comprises mainly office and warehouse/light industrial space and is 55% occupied, offering good value add potential.
|-
# A €3.9 million (including costs) primarily warehouse asset located in a well-developed commercial area in Dreieich, Germany, that is strategically adjacent to an existing property owned by Sirius.  We intend to convert the property into a self-storage facility, adding to our existing SmartSpace Self-Storage brand that now exists in 32 locations across Germany.
|Corporate costs and overheads
# A €0.9 million (including costs) small 239 sqm vacant office building in Potsdam. The property is placed strategically at the entrance to one of the Company's existing sites and directly adjacent to the world famous Babelsberg Film Studios.
|(20.8)
 
|(10.4)  
The company said that it has identified a number of asset management initiatives within the three newly acquired properties which will allow it to grow rental income and occupancy by leasing into markets where it sees continued strong demand for its products.
|
 
|-
The company added that it expects to slow its acquisition pipeline, and that it will also continue to seek to dispose of non-core or mature assets as and when it feels the timing is right.
|'''Adjusted EBITDA'''
 
|'''55.7'''
== Change of Chief Financial Officer ==
|'''39.2'''
On the 16th August 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that for personal reasons, Diarmuid Kelly has decided to step down as the company's Chief Financial Officer.  
|'''+42%'''
 
|-
Alistair Marks, the Chief Investment Officer and former CFO of the company, has stepped in as the interim CFO. The company has begun the search for a new CFO.
|Bank interest
 
|(6.9)  
== Sale of Bizspace Camberwell ==
|(4.5)
On 16th May 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced the sale of a business park asset for £16 million, representing a 94% premium to the valuation that the asset was initially acquired by the company in November 2021 (i.e. in less than eight months). The proceeds will be used to invest in higher yielding UK opportunities.
|
 
|-
Key features of the asset include:
|Current tax (excluding tax on disposals)  
 
|(0.3)
* It's located in Camberwell, London.
|(1.7)
* It's multi-tenanted.
|
* It comprises approx. 34,700 sq. ft. of industrial and office space, and is 91% occupied.
|-
* The sale price represents a net initial yield (NIY), which is the current annualised rent, net of costs, expressed as a percentage of capital value, after adding notional purchaser's costs, of around 2.0%.
|'''FFO'''
 
|'''48.5'''
== Board changes ==
|'''33.0'''
On 13th June 2022, the company announced two board changes.
|'''+47%'''
 
|-
Caroline Britton was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the Senior Independent Director. Caroline has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since June 2020 and chairs the Audit Committee and is a member of the Nomination Committee of the Board.
|Depreciation & amortisation of financing fees
 
|(3.3)
Joanne Kenrick was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the chair of the Remuneration Committee. Joanne has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since September 2021 and is a member of the Nomination and Sustainability and Ethics Committees of the Board.
|(1.9)
 
|
James Peggie will continue as a non-executive Director and a member of the Audit, Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.
|-
 
|Add back current taxes (excluding tax on disposals)
== Final results ==
|0.3
On 13th June 2022, the company announced its full year results for the year ended 31st March 2022.
|1.7
 
|
During the 12-month period, revenue increased by 27% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million), and the gain on revaluation of investment properties jumped by 41% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million); however, mainly due to an impairment charge, higher administrative expenses and interest expenses, the net profit remained more-or-less unchanged at €147 million (FY 2021: €147 million).
|-
 
|IFRS 16 & foreign exchange effects
In terms of the financial position of the company, the net current assets increased by more than 3x to €55 million (FY 2021: €17 million), and the net asset value (NAV) rose by by 28% to €1.19 billion (FY 2021: €0.93 billion).
|(1.9)
 
|(0.5)
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 15% to €82 million (FY2021: €71 million), and mainly due to the acquisition of a subsidiary and purchase of investment properties, cash flows used in investing activities increased by almost 6x to €430 million (FY2021: €74 million). Cash flows from financing activities swung to €431 million (FY2021: negative €54 million), driven by the proceeds of loans and the issue of share capital. The total dividend per share for the year increased by 16% to 4.41 cents (FY2021: 3.80%).
|
 
|-
Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million).
|'''Adjusted Profit Before Tax'''
{| class="wikitable"
|'''43.6'''
|+Results for the year ended 31st March 2022
|'''32.3'''
!
|'''+35%'''
!Forecast
|-
!Actual
|Adjusting items
!Difference (%)
|(3.0)<ref>Adjusting items include costs relating to share awards, costs relating to the repayment of secured debt and acquisition costs relating to the acquisition of BizSpace.</ref>
|(7.0)
|
|-
|Surplus/Deficit on revaluation of investment properties
|27.7
|51.5
|
|-
|Goodwill impairment
| -
| -
|
|-
|Gain/Loss on disposal of investment properties
|4.8
|(0.3)
|
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|1.2
|0.2
|
|-
|Share of profit in associate not included in FFO
|1.4  
|1.5
|
|-
|'''Profit Before Tax'''
|'''75.7'''
|'''78.2'''
|'''(3)%'''
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
!
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Movement (%)
|-
|Assets
|
|
|
|-
|Investment properties (owned assets)
|2,082.4
|1,428.5
|46%
|-
|Investment properties (leased assets)  
|23.6
|16.3
|45%
|-
|-
|Investment in associate
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
|71.1
|2.00
|63.9
|2.08
|11%
|4.00%
|-
|Plant and equipment
|11.3
|9.8<ref>Includes €3.7m Goodwill.</ref>
|15%  
|-
|-
|Trade and other receivables
|FFO (€'million)
|45.0<ref>Includes €15m Right of use assets.</ref>
|72.0
|100.6
|74.6
|55)%
|3.61%
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|1.6
|6.58
|0
|6.78
| -
|3.04%
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|162.1
|4.25
|187.6
|4.41
|(14)%
|3.76%
|-
|-
|Total Assets
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|2,397.1
|104.4
|1,806.7
|108.5
|33%
|3.93%
|-
|Liabilities
|
|
|
|-
|Trade and other payables
|(77.0)
|(49.2)
|57%
|-
|Interest bearing bank loans
|(980.4)
|(689.2)
|42%
|-
|Lease liabilities
|(38.7)<ref>Includes €16.7m Lease Liability for Right of use assets.</ref>
|(16.4)
|136%
|-
|Current & Deferred tax liabilities
|(86.2)
|(68.5)
|26%
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
| -
|(0.5)
|(100)%
|-
|Total Liabilities
|(1,182.3)
|(823.8)
|44%
|-
|Net Assets
|1,214.8
|982.9
|24%
|-
|NAV per share
|103.90c
|92.62c
|12%
|-
|Adjusted NAV per share
|110.72c
|98.80c
|12%
|-
|EPRA NTA per share
|109.47c
|97.02c
|13%
|}
|}


== Reaffirmed Investment Rating ==
== Financials ==
On the 7th November 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that the rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed the company's BBB investment grade rating with 'Stable Outlook' (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating).


In its rating, Fitch noted that it expects Sirius's income to remain stable, due to an active focus on occupancy and low affordable rents for the company's out-of-town locations. It also highlighted the benefits of the Sirius operating platform and the resilience of its core, high-yielding portfolio. Fitch anticipates that total average portfolio occupancy levels will remain above 80%.
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+Financial forecasts
== Early refinancing of next major debt expiry ==
!
On 6th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed the early refinancing of the the company's next major debt expiry, a €170 million facility with Berlin Hyp AG, approximately one year in advance of the facility's due date.  
! colspan="3" |31 March 2023
 
! colspan="3" |31 March 2024
The refinancing comprises a new 7-year, €170 million facility at a fixed interest rate of 4.26%, which will replace and redeem the existing facility upon its expiry on 31 October 2023.
|-
 
!
As of 30 September 2022, the group had a total of €993 million of outstanding debt, €750 million of which is unsecured. The remaining €243 million comprised mortgage-backed debt, of which the most significant tranche is the newly refinanced €170 million Berlin Hyp AG facility referred to above.
!Old
 
!New
This refinancing facility extends the group's total weighted average debt expiry from 3.8 years to 5.0 years. When the new facility commences just over a year from now, the group's weighted average cost of debt will increase from 1.4% to 1.9%.
!Change (%)
 
!Old
The company has €1.6 billion of unencumbered assets and in excess of €138 million of free cash available. Within the next 12 months, Sirius has a total of €35 million of debt expiring, which it is confident of either extending terms with the existing lenders, replacing with new lenders or paying down.
!New
 
!Change (%)
== Acquisitions and disposals update ==
|-
On 4th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed three acquisitions in Germany, for €44.6 million.
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
 
|2.12
These acquisitions were all notarised prior to the end of June and have been predominantly funded using capital recycled from three strategic disposals in Germany and the UK for a combined €33.6 million.
|2.12
 
|0.00%
The disposals have been made at a premium to book value.
|2.21
 
|2.15
The three disposals were of assets that offered limited further growth opportunities due to location and/or condition, and comprised:
|(2.71%)
 
|-
The notarisation of a €1.0 million 3,200 sqm non-income producing land plot in Heiligenhaus, Germany which had a book value of €250,000 at the time of notarisation. This asset is being sold to a supermarket chain as part of its expansion plans, with the transaction expected to complete in January 2023.
|FFO (€'million)
 
|90.1
The three new acquisitions totalling €44.6 million currently generate a combined total of €2.3 million of rental income and €1.6 million of net operating profit annually. The three acquired assets have a combined occupancy of just 54% and offer a range of avenues for Sirius to leverage its significant value creation expertise to grow rental income. The acquired assets comprise:
|97.0
 
|7.66%
# A €39.8 million (including costs) mixed-use property in Düsseldorf, Germany, situated 2.6 km from the city's international airport. The property comprises mainly office and warehouse/light industrial space and is 55% occupied, offering good value add potential.
|95.1
# A €3.9 million (including costs) primarily warehouse asset located in a well-developed commercial area in Dreieich, Germany, that is strategically adjacent to an existing property owned by Sirius.  We intend to convert the property into a self-storage facility, adding to our existing SmartSpace Self-Storage brand that now exists in 32 locations across Germany.
|100.0
# A €0.9 million (including costs) small 239 sqm vacant office building in Potsdam. The property is placed strategically at the entrance to one of the Company's existing sites and directly adjacent to the world famous Babelsberg Film Studios.
|5.15%
|-
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|7.75
|8.25
|6.45%
|8.16
|8.50
|4.17%
|-
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|5.0
|5.4
|8.00%
|5.3
|5.6
|5.66%
|-
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|110.9
|109.5
|(1.26%)
|118.0
|114.5
|(2.97%)
|}


The company said that it has identified a number of asset management initiatives within the three newly acquired properties which will allow it to grow rental income and occupancy by leasing into markets where it sees continued strong demand for its products.
{| class="wikitable"
 
|+Consolidated income statement
The company added that it expects to slow its acquisition pipeline, and that it will also continue to seek to dispose of non-core or mature assets as and when it feels the timing is right.
!
 
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
== Change of Chief Financial Officer ==
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
On the 16th August 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that for personal reasons, Diarmuid Kelly has decided to step down as the company's Chief Financial Officer.
!Year ended 31 March 2023 (€000)
 
!Year ended 31 March 2024 (€000)
Alistair Marks, the Chief Investment Officer and former CFO of the company, has stepped in as the interim CFO. The company has begun the search for a new CFO.
|-
 
|Revenue
== Sale of Bizspace Camberwell ==
|165,361
On 16th May 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced the sale of a business park asset for £16 million, representing a 94% premium to the valuation that the asset was initially acquired by the company in November 2021 (i.e. in less than eight months). The proceeds will be used to invest in higher yielding UK opportunities.
|210,182
 
|154,500
Key features of the asset include:
|159,000
 
|-
* It's located in Camberwell, London.
|Direct costs
* It's multi-tenanted.
|(71,541)
* It comprises approx. 34,700 sq. ft. of industrial and office space, and is 91% occupied.
|(87,689)
* The sale price represents a net initial yield (NIY), which is the current annualised rent, net of costs, expressed as a percentage of capital value, after adding notional purchaser's costs, of around 2.0%.
|
 
|
== Board changes ==
|-
On 13th June 2022, the company announced two board changes.
|'''Net operating income'''
 
|'''93,820'''
Caroline Britton was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the Senior Independent Director. Caroline has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since June 2020 and chairs the Audit Committee and is a member of the Nomination Committee of the Board.
|'''122,493'''
 
|
Joanne Kenrick was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the chair of the Remuneration Committee. Joanne has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since September 2021 and is a member of the Nomination and Sustainability and Ethics Committees of the Board.
|
 
|-
James Peggie will continue as a non-executive Director and a member of the Audit, Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
 
|99,585
== Final results ==
|140,884
On 13th June 2022, the company announced its full year results for the year ended 31st March 2022.
|
 
|
During the 12-month period, revenue increased by 27% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million), and the gain on revaluation of investment properties jumped by 41% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million); however, mainly due to an impairment charge, higher administrative expenses and interest expenses, the net profit remained more-or-less unchanged at €147 million (FY 2021: €147 million).
 
In terms of the financial position of the company, the net current assets increased by more than 3x to €55 million (FY 2021: €17 million), and the net asset value (NAV) rose by by 28% to €1.19 billion (FY 2021: €0.93 billion).
 
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 15% to €82 million (FY2021: €71 million), and mainly due to the acquisition of a subsidiary and purchase of investment properties, cash flows used in investing activities increased by almost 6x to €430 million (FY2021: €74 million). Cash flows from financing activities swung to €431 million (FY2021: negative €54 million), driven by the proceeds of loans and the issue of share capital. The total dividend per share for the year increased by 16% to 4.41 cents (FY2021: 3.80%).
 
Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million).
{| class="wikitable"
|+How do the results compare to our forecasts?
!
!Forecast
!Actual
!Difference (%)
|-
|-
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
|(Loss)/gain on disposal of properties
|2.00
|54
|2.08
|(623)
|4.00%
|
|
|-
|-
|FFO (€'million)
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|72.0
|65
|74.6
|94
|3.61%
|
|
|-
|-
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|Administrative expenses
|6.58
|(27,823)
|6.78
|(40,718)
|3.04%
|
|
|-
|-
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|Goodwill impairment
|4.25
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|4.41
|(40,906)
|3.76%
|
|
|-
|-
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|Share of profit of associates
|104.4
|4,977
|108.5
|6,940
|3.93%
|
|}
|
 
== Financials ==
 
{| class="wikitable"
|+How have our forecasts changed?
!
! colspan="3" |31 March 2023
! colspan="3" |31 March 2024
|-
|-
!
|'''Operating profit'''
!Old
|'''170,678'''
!New
|'''188,164'''
!Change (%)
|
!Old
|
!New
|-
!Change (%)
|Finance income
|2,712
|2,986
|
|
|-
|-
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
|Finance expense
|2.12
|(9,869)
|2.12
|(23,219)
|0.00%
|
|2.21
|
|2.15
|(2.71%)
|-
|-
|FFO (€'million)
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|90.1
|136
|97.0
|996
|7.66%
|
|95.1
|
|100.0
|5.15%
|-
|-
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|'''Net finance costs'''
|7.75
|'''(7,021)'''
|8.25
|'''(19,237)'''
|6.45%
|
|8.16
|
|8.50
|4.17%
|-
|-
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|'''Profit before tax'''
|5.0
|'''163,657'''
|5.4
|'''168,927'''
|8.00%
|91,570
|5.3
|95,770
|5.6
|-
|5.66%
|Taxation
|(16,097)
|(20,935)
|
|
|-
|-
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|'''Profit for the year after tax'''
|110.9
|'''147,560'''
|109.5
|'''147,992'''
|(1.26%)
|95,500
|118.0
|97,950
|114.5
|(2.97%)
|}
 
== Risks ==
As with any investment, investing in Sirius carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the company's market beta (i.e. 1.016), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low'. Here, to estimate the adjusted beta<ref name=":0" />, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice.
 
For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to macro-economic factors, in particular unexpected and sudden changes in inflation and interest rates movements, ultimately resulting in a reduction in the affordability and, therefore, demand of the company's assets/properties. With that said, the company has a diverse tenant base, with its top 50 tenants generating 45% of annual income in Germany, and 26% of annual income generated by the top 100 tenants in the UK. Sirius also has no material dependencies on specific industries, and a track record of buying and building high-returning investment opportunities. 
 
== Valuation ==
Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or less, the approach that is more accurate is the relative valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
 
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Sirius using the relative valuation approach? ====
Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next 12-months is 57%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £157,000 within 12-months from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
 
Assuming that a suitable return level in the 12 months is 10% and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of 197%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
 
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|-
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|'''Profit attributable to:'''
|P/FFO
|
|The FFO does not account for depreciation in properties but rather adds back the depreciation value back to the net income. Furthmore, FFO deducts any gains or losses from the sale of assets, since including the transaction would result in discrepancies in the revenues reported in each period. Accordingly, we suggest valuing the company using the Price to Funds From Operations (P/FFO) ratio.
|
|
|
|-
|-
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, for the FFO figure, which year to you want to use?
|Owners of the Company
|Twelve months ahead
|147,451
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the FFO figure, we suggest using the twelve months ahead.
|147,873
|95,500
|97,950
|-
|-
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|Non-controlling interest
|18x
|109
|According to Bloomberg, Sirius Real Estate Limited closest peers trade on a multiple of 18x.
|119
|
|
|-
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|
|Proactive Investors
|147,560
|Here, we have used the forecasts of Proactive Investors.
|147,992
|
|
|-
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|'''Earnings per share'''
|£981.20 million
|
|As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of Sirius Real Estate Limited is £981.20 million.
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Basic earnings per share
|Between now and one year time
|14.16c
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.
|13.48c
|8.00c
|8.00c
|-
|Diluted earnings per share
|13.96c
|13.29c
|8.00c
|8.00c
|}
|}
 
{| class="wikitable"
=== Sensitive analysis ===
|+Consolidated statement of financial position
The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
!
 
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
# The P/FFO multiple (the default multiple is 18x); and
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
# The twelve months ahead FFO forecast (the default forecast is €98.78 million).
 
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|-
|The P/FFO multiple
|'''Non-current assets'''
|43%
|
|57%
|
|73%
|-
|-
|The twelve months ahead FFO forecast
|Investment properties
|43%
|1,362,192
|57%
|2,100,004
|73%
|}
 
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Peers
!Company name
!Bloomberg ticker
!Primary exchange
!Classification
!Industry
!Market capitalisation (GBP)
!BF P/FFO
!Yield (%)
!Interest cover (x)
!Total debt/total capital
|-
|-
|Sirius Real Estate Ltd
|Plant and equipment
|SRE LN
|2,682
|United Kingdom
|5,492
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|979,494,700
|11.5111
|4.08%
|5.42
|46.14%
|-
|-
|FastPartner AB
|Intangible assets
|FPARA SS
|6,568
|Sweden
|4,283
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,170,459,785
| --
|2.93%
|4.50
|48.51%
|-
|-
|Cibus Nordic Real Estate AB
|Right of use assets
|CIBUS SS
|1,919
|Sweden
|14,996
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|57,4491,440
| --
|6.78%
|3.47
|61.04%
|-
|-
|Shaftesbury PLC
|Other non-current financial assets
|SHB LN
|44,960
|United Kingdom
|48,330
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,385,308,138
|33.7009
|2.48%
|1.99
|27.95%
|-
|-
|Intershop Holding AG
|Investment in associates
|ISN SW
|17,202
|Switzerland
|24,142
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,011,223,384
| --
|4.08%
|(10.25)
|34.63%
|-
|-
|WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbes
|'''Total non-current assets'''
|WCMK GR
|'''1,435,523'''
|Germany
|'''2,197,247'''
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|497,815,111
| --
|2.86%
|6.18
|2.77%
|-
|-
|Metrovacesa SA
|'''Current assets'''
|MVC SM
|
|Spain
|
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|874,166,035
|25.1504
|30.90%
|N/A
|15.84%
|-
|-
|Brack Capital Properties NV
|Trade and other receivables
|BCNV IT
|18,731
|Italy
|24,571
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|601,880,806
| --
| --
|(11.66)
|42.48%
|-
|-
|TLG Immobilien AG
|Derivative financial instruments
|TLG GR
|70
|Germany
|329
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,949,040,400
|23.0976
|4.70%
|4.89
|15.32%
|-
|-
|GAG Immobilien AG
|Cash and cash equivalents
|GWK3 GR
|65,674
|Germany
|150,966
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,097,732,888
| --
|0.65%
|3.87
|71.78%
|-
|-
|Gateway Real Estate AG
|'''Total current assets'''
|GTY GR
|'''84,475'''
|Germany
|'''175,866'''
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|498,775,280
| --
| --
|0.25
|63.50%
|}
 
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated income statement
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Revenue
|Assets held for sale
|88,352
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|130,558
|13,750
|-
|-
|Direct costs
|'''Total assets'''
|(38,843)
|'''1,519,998'''
|(57,350)
|'''2,386,863'''
|-
|-
|Net operating income
|'''Current liabilities'''
|49,509
|
|73,208
|
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|Trade and other payables
|48,414
|(50,527)
|26,812
|(89,335)
|-
|-
|Gain/(loss) on disposal of properties
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|(400)
|(9,114)
|4,801
|(19,630)
|-
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|Lease liabilities
|94
|(5,857)
|(1,090)
|-
|Current tax liabilities
|(2,063)
|(10,423)
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|(414)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Administrative expenses
|'''Total current liabilities'''
|(12,311)
|'''(67,975)'''
|(24,809)
|'''(120,478)'''
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|'''Non-current liabilities'''
|2,463
|
|2,597
|
|-
|Operating profit
|87,769
|82,609
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|1,596
|(458,940)
|1,129
|(961,863)
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|Lease liabilities
|(11,347)
|(9,130)
|(9,249)
|(37,571)
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Derivative financial instruments
|160
|(797)
|1,244
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Net finance costs
|Deferred tax liabilities
|(9,591)
|(56,331)
|(6,876)
|(75,893)
|-
|-
|Profit before tax
|'''Total non-current liabilities'''
|78,178
|'''(525,198)'''
|75,733
|'''(1,075,327)'''
|-
|-
|Taxation
|'''Total liabilities'''
|(10,386)
|'''(593,173)'''
|(5,673)
|'''(1,195,805)'''
|-
|-
|Profit for the period after tax
|'''Net assets'''
|67,792
|'''926,825'''
|70,060
|'''1,191,058'''
|-
|-
|Profit attributable to:
|'''Equity'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Owners of the Company
|Issued share capital
|67,738
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|70,008
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Other distributable reserve
|54
|449,051
|52
|570,369
|-
|-
|
|Own shares held
|67,792
|(2,903)
|70,060
|(6,274)
|-
|-
|Earnings per share
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|
|(1,701)
|-
|-
|Basic earnings per share
|Retained earnings
|6.44c
|480,385
|6.00c
|628,258
|-
|-
|Diluted earnings per share
|'''Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company'''
|6.33c
|'''926,533'''
|5.92c
|'''1,190,652'''
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|292
|406
|-
|'''Total equity'''
|'''926,825'''
|'''1,191,058'''
|}
|}
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
|+Consolidated statement of cash flows
!
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Non-current assets
|'''Operating activities'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Investment properties
|Profit for the year after tax
|2,100,004
|147,560
|2,105,046
|147,992
|-
|-
|Plant and equipment
|Taxation
|5,492
|16,097
|7,199
|20,935
|-
|-
|Intangible assets
|Profit for the year before tax
|4,283
|163,657
|4,129
|168,927
|-
|-
|Right of use assets
|Loss/(gain) on disposal of properties
|14,996
|(54)
|15,259
|623
|-
|-
|Other non-current financial assets
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|48,330
|(65)
|48,409
|(94)
|-
|-
|Investment in associates
|Net exchange differences
|24,142
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|26,739
|(1,975)
|-
|-
|Total non-current assets
|Share-based payments
|2,197,247
|3,148
|2,206,781
|4,173
|-
|-
|Current assets
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|
|(99,585)
|
|(140,884)
|-
|-
|Trade and other receivables
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|24,571
|(136)
|24,420
|(996)
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|329
|669
|1,573
|1,167
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|150,966
|897
|162,098
|1,164
|-
|-
|Total current assets
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|175,866
|521
|188,091
|843
|-
|-
|Assets held for sale
|Goodwill impairment
|13,750
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|1,000
|40,906
|-
|-
|Total assets
|Share of profit of associates
|2,386,863
|(4,977)
|2,395,872
|(6,940)
|-
|-
|Current liabilities
|Finance income
|(2,712)
|(2,986)
|-
|Finance expense
|9,869
|23,219
|-
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Trade and other payables
|Increase in trade and other receivables
|(89,335)
|(2,518)
|(76,993)
|(5,196)
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Increase in trade and other payables
|(19,630)
|2,913
|(37,243)
|3,470
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Taxation paid
|(1,090)
|(632)
|(1,458)
|(3,671)
|-
|-
|Current tax liabilities
|'''Cash flows from operating activities'''
|(10,423)
|'''70,995'''
|(4,978)
|'''81,750'''
|-
|-
|Total current liabilities
|'''Investing activities'''
|(120,478)
|(120,672)
|-
|Non-current liabilities
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Purchase of investment properties
|(961,863)
|(35,484)
|(943,176)
|(162,844)
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|(37,571)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(37,233)
|(1,860)
|-
|-
|Deferred tax liabilities
|Proceeds from loss on control of subsidiaries (net of cash disposed)
|(75,893)
|65
|(81,220)
|94
|-
|-
|Total non-current liabilities
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|(1,075,327)
|(31,104)
|(1,061,629)
|(23,786)
|-
|-
|Total liabilities
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|(1,195,805)
|(2,718)
|(1,182,301)
|(3,540)
|-
|-
|Net assets
|Acquisition of a subsidiary (net of cash acquired)
|1,191,058
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|1,213,571
|(254,730)
|-
|-
|Equity
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|
|30
|15,297
|-
|Increase in loans receivable due from associates
|(5,950)
|(1,124)
|-
|Interest received
|1,627
|2,986
|-
|'''Cash flows used in investing activities'''
|'''(73,534)'''
|'''(429,507)'''
|-
|'''Financing activities'''
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Issued share capital
|Proceeds from issue of share capital
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|159,926
|-
|Transaction costs on issue of shares
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(6,219)
|-
|-
|Other distributable reserve
|Shares purchased
|570,369
|(1,613)
|544,419
|(5,545)
|-
|-
|Own shares held
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|(6,274)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(8,329)
|(3,519)
|-
|-
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|(1,701)
|(24,248)
|(21,243)
|(30,815)
|-
|-
|Retained earnings
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|628,258
|(63)
|698,266
|(5)
|-
|-
|Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company
|Proceeds from loans
|1,190,652
|20,000
|1,213,113
|750,000
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Repayment of loans
|406
|(33,753)
|458
|(399,431)
|-
|-
|Total equity
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|1,191,058
|(5,681)
|1,213,571
|(5,871)
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated statement of cash flow
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|'''Operating activities'''
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|
|(5,335)
|-
|-
|Profit for the period after tax
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|67,792
|(134)
|70,060
|(14,369)
|-
|-
|Taxation
|Finance charges paid
|10,386
|(7,558)
|5,673
|(7,067)
|-
|-
|Profit for the period before tax
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) financing activities'''
|78,178
|'''(53,050)'''
|75,733
|'''431,750'''
|-
|-
|(Gain)/loss on disposal of properties
|'''Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents'''
|400
|'''(55,589)'''
|(4,801)
|'''83,993'''
|-
|-
|Net exchange differences
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|'''-'''
|(309)
|'''1,299'''
|-
|-
|Share-based payments
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the year
|1,403
|121,263
|1,947
|65,674
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the year end'''
|(48,414)
|'''65,674'''
|(26,812)
|'''150,966'''
|-
|}
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
 
|(160)
== Risks ==
|(1,244)
As with any investment, investing in Sirius carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the company's market beta (i.e. 1.016), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low'. Here, to estimate the adjusted beta<ref name=":0" />, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice.
|-
 
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to macro-economic factors, in particular unexpected and sudden changes in inflation and interest rates movements, ultimately resulting in a reduction in the affordability and, therefore, demand of the company's assets/properties. With that said, the company has a diverse tenant base and no material dependencies on specific industries, and a track record of buying and building high-returning investment opportunities. 
|349
 
|1,027
== Valuation ==
Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or less, the approach that is more accurate is the relative valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
 
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Sirius using the relative valuation approach? ====
Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next 12-months is 197%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £197,000 within 12-months from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
 
Assuming that a suitable return level in the 12 months is 10% and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of 197%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
 
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|-
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|564
|P/FFO
|629
|The FFO does not account for depreciation in properties but rather adds back the depreciation value back to the net income. Furthmore, FFO deducts any gains or losses from the sale of assets, since including the transaction would result in discrepancies in the revenues reported in each period. Accordingly, we suggest valuing the company using the Price to Funds From Operations (P/FFO) ratio.
|-
|-
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, for the FFO figure, which year to you want to use?
|260
|Year 1
|1,141
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the FFO figure, we suggest using Year 1.
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|(2,463)
|18x
|(2,597)
|According to Bloomberg, Sirius Real Estate Limited closest peers trade on a multiple of 18x.
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|(1,596)
|Consensus
|(1,129)
|Here, we have used the consensus forecasts.
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|What's the current value of the Stockhub company?
|11,347
|£981.20 million
|9,249
|As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of its company at £981.20 million.
|-
|-
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|
|Between now and one year time
|  
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.
|-
|}
|Decrease/(increase) in trade and other receivables
 
|(2,598)
=== Sensitive analysis ===
|3,786
The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
 
# The P/FFO multiple (the default multiple is 18x); and
# The year-one FFO forecast (the default forecast is $xxx million); and
 
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|-
|Decrease in trade and other payables
|The P/FFO multiple
|(2,053)
|
|(5,848)
|-
|Taxation paid
|(256)
|(2,717)
|-
|Cash flows from operating activities
|34,961
|48,055
|-
|Investing activities
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Purchase of investment properties
|The year-one FFO forecast
|(20,221)
|
|(832)
|
|
|}
 
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Peers
!Company name
!Bloomberg ticker
!Primary exchange
!Classification
!Industry
!Market capitalisation (GBP)
!BF P/FFO
!Yield (%)
!Interest cover (x)
!Total debt/total capital
|-
|-
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|Sirius Real Estate Ltd
|(75,771)
|SRE LN
|(3,639)
|United Kingdom
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|979,494,700
|11.5111
|4.08%
|5.42
|46.14%
|-
|-
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|FastPartner AB
|(10,494)
|FPARA SS
|(11,904)
|Sweden
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,170,459,785
| --
|2.93%
|4.50
|48.51%
|-
|-
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|Cibus Nordic Real Estate AB
|(1,461)
|CIBUS SS
|(3,210)
|Sweden
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|57,4491,440
| --
|6.78%
|3.47
|61.04%
|-
|-
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|Shaftesbury PLC
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|SHB LN
|18,593
|United Kingdom
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,385,308,138
|33.7009
|2.48%
|1.99
|27.95%
|-
|-
|Increase in loan receivable due from associates
|Intershop Holding AG
|(1,124)
|ISN SW
|(74)
|Switzerland
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,011,223,384
| --
|4.08%
|(10.25)
|34.63%
|-
|-
|Interest received
|WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbes
|1,596
|WCMK GR
|1,129
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|497,815,111
| --
|2.86%
|6.18
|2.77%
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) investing activities'''
|Metrovacesa SA
|'''(107,475)'''
|MVC SM
|'''63'''
|Spain
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|874,166,035
|25.1504
|30.90%
|N/A
|15.84%
|-
|-
|'''Financing activities'''
|Brack Capital Properties NV
|
|BCNV IT
|  
|Italy
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|601,880,806
| --
| --
|(11.66)
|42.48%
|-
|-
|Shares purchased
|TLG Immobilien AG
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|TLG GR
|(2,389)
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,949,040,400
|23.0976
|4.70%
|4.89
|15.32%
|-
|-
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|GAG Immobilien AG
|(2,020)
|GWK3 GR
|(1,686)
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,097,732,888
| --
|0.65%
|3.87
|71.78%
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|Gateway Real Estate AG
|(11,381)
|GTY GR
|(26,211)
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|498,775,280
| --
| --
|0.25
|63.50%
|}
 
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated income statement
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|Revenue
|(5)
|88,352
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|130,558
|-
|-
|Proceeds from loans
|Direct costs
|400,000
|(38,843)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(57,350)
|-
|-
|Repayment of loans
|Net operating income
|(173,791)
|49,509
|(2,699)
|73,208
|-
|-
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|(2,931)
|48,414
|(775)
|26,812
|-
|-
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|Gain/(loss) on disposal of properties
|(3,697)
|(400)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|4,801
|-
|-
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|(7,559)
|94
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Finance charges paid
|Administrative expenses
|(4,170)
|(12,311)
|(2,747)
|(24,809)
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows (used in)/from financing activities'''
|Share of profit of associates
|'''194,446'''
|2,463
|'''(36,507)'''
|2,597
|-
|-
|'''Increase in cash and cash equivalents'''
|Operating profit
|'''121,932'''
|87,769
|'''11,611'''
|82,609
|-
|-
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|Finance income
|'''-'''
|1,596
|'''(479)'''
|1,129
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the period
|Finance expense
|65,674
|(11,347)
|150,966
|(9,249)
|-
|-
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the period end'''
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|'''187,606'''
|160
|'''162,098'''
|1,244
|}
 
 
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated income statement
!
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2023 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2024 (€000)
|-
|-
|Revenue
|Net finance costs
|165,361
|(9,591)
|210,182
|(6,876)
|154,500
|159,000
|-
|-
|Direct costs
|Profit before tax
|(71,541)
|78,178
|(87,689)
|75,733
|
|-
|
|Taxation
|(10,386)
|(5,673)
|-
|-
|'''Net operating income'''
|Profit for the period after tax
|'''93,820'''
|67,792
|'''122,493'''
|70,060
|
|
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|Profit attributable to:
|99,585
|140,884
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|(Loss)/gain on disposal of properties
|Owners of the Company
|67,738
|70,008
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|54
|54
|(623)
|52
|
|
|-
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|65
|94
|
|
|
|67,792
|70,060
|-
|-
|Administrative expenses
|Earnings per share
|(27,823)
|(40,718)
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Goodwill impairment
|Basic earnings per share
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|6.44c
|(40,906)
|6.00c
|
|
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|Diluted earnings per share
|4,977
|6.33c
|6,940
|5.92c
|
|}
|
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|'''Operating profit'''
|Non-current assets
|'''170,678'''
|'''188,164'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Investment properties
|2,712
|2,100,004
|2,986
|2,105,046
|
|
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|Plant and equipment
|(9,869)
|5,492
|(23,219)
|7,199
|
|
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Intangible assets
|136
|4,283
|996
|4,129
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Net finance costs'''
|Right of use assets
|'''(7,021)'''
|14,996
|'''(19,237)'''
|15,259
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Profit before tax'''
|Other non-current financial assets
|'''163,657'''
|48,330
|'''168,927'''
|48,409
|91,570
|95,770
|-
|-
|Taxation
|Investment in associates
|(16,097)
|24,142
|(20,935)
|26,739
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Profit for the year after tax'''
|Total non-current assets
|'''147,560'''
|2,197,247
|'''147,992'''
|2,206,781
|95,500
|97,950
|-
|-
|'''Profit attributable to:'''
|Current assets
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Owners of the Company
|Trade and other receivables
|147,451
|24,571
|147,873
|24,420
|95,500
|97,950
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Derivative financial instruments
|109
|329
|119
|1,573
|
|
|-
|-
|
|Cash and cash equivalents
|147,560
|150,966
|147,992
|162,098
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Earnings per share'''
|Total current assets
|
|175,866
|
|188,091
|-
|Assets held for sale
|13,750
|1,000
|-
|Total assets
|2,386,863
|2,395,872
|-
|Current liabilities
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Basic earnings per share
|Trade and other payables
|14.16c
|(89,335)
|13.48c
|(76,993)
|8.00c
|8.00c
|-
|-
|Diluted earnings per share
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|13.96c
|(19,630)
|13.29c
|(37,243)
|8.00c
|-
|8.00c
|Lease liabilities
|}
|(1,090)
{| class="wikitable"
|(1,458)
|+Consolidated statement of financial position
|-
!
|Current tax liabilities
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
|(10,423)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
|(4,978)
|-
|Total current liabilities
|(120,478)
|(120,672)
|-
|-
|'''Non-current assets'''
|Non-current liabilities
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Investment properties
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|1,362,192
|(961,863)
|2,100,004
|(943,176)
|-
|-
|Plant and equipment
|Lease liabilities
|2,682
|(37,571)
|5,492
|(37,233)
|-
|-
|Intangible assets
|Deferred tax liabilities
|6,568
|(75,893)
|4,283
|(81,220)
|-
|-
|Right of use assets
|Total non-current liabilities
|1,919
|(1,075,327)
|14,996
|(1,061,629)
|-
|-
|Other non-current financial assets
|Total liabilities
|44,960
|(1,195,805)
|48,330
|(1,182,301)
|-
|-
|Investment in associates
|Net assets
|17,202
|1,191,058
|24,142
|1,213,571
|-
|-
|'''Total non-current assets'''
|Equity
|'''1,435,523'''
|'''2,197,247'''
|-
|'''Current assets'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Trade and other receivables
|Issued share capital
|18,731
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|24,571
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Other distributable reserve
|70
|570,369
|329
|544,419
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents
|Own shares held
|65,674
|(6,274)
|150,966
|(8,329)
|-
|-
|'''Total current assets'''
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|'''84,475'''
|(1,701)
|'''175,866'''
|(21,243)
|-
|-
|Assets held for sale
|Retained earnings
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|628,258
|13,750
|698,266
|-
|-
|'''Total assets'''
|Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company
|'''1,519,998'''
|1,190,652
|'''2,386,863'''
|1,213,113
|-
|-
|'''Current liabilities'''
|Non-controlling interest
|406
|458
|-
|Total equity
|1,191,058
|1,213,571
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated statement of cash flow
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|'''Operating activities'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Trade and other payables
|Profit for the period after tax
|(50,527)
|67,792
|(89,335)
|70,060
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Taxation
|(9,114)
|10,386
|(19,630)
|5,673
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Profit for the period before tax
|(5,857)
|78,178
|(1,090)
|75,733
|-
|-
|Current tax liabilities
|(Gain)/loss on disposal of properties
|(2,063)
|400
|(10,423)
|(4,801)
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Net exchange differences
|(414)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(309)
|-
|-
|'''Total current liabilities'''
|Share-based payments
|'''(67,975)'''
|1,403
|'''(120,478)'''
|1,947
|-
|-
|'''Non-current liabilities'''
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|
|(48,414)
|
|(26,812)
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|(458,940)
|(160)
|(961,863)
|(1,244)
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|(9,130)
|349
|(37,571)
|1,027
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|(797)
|564
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|629
|-
|-
|Deferred tax liabilities
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|(56,331)
|260
|(75,893)
|1,141
|-
|-
|'''Total non-current liabilities'''
|Share of profit of associates
|'''(525,198)'''
|(2,463)
|'''(1,075,327)'''
|(2,597)
|-
|-
|'''Total liabilities'''
|Finance income
|'''(593,173)'''
|(1,596)
|'''(1,195,805)'''
|(1,129)
|-
|-
|'''Net assets'''
|Finance expense
|'''926,825'''
|11,347
|'''1,191,058'''
|9,249
|-
|-
|'''Equity'''
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Issued share capital
|Decrease/(increase) in trade and other receivables
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(2,598)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|3,786
|-
|-
|Other distributable reserve
|Decrease in trade and other payables
|449,051
|(2,053)
|570,369
|(5,848)
|-
|-
|Own shares held
|Taxation paid
|(2,903)
|(256)
|(6,274)
|(2,717)
|-
|-
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|Cash flows from operating activities
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|34,961
|(1,701)
|48,055
|-
|-
|Retained earnings
|Investing activities
|480,385
|
|628,258
|
|-
|-
|'''Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company'''
|Purchase of investment properties
|'''926,533'''
|(20,221)
|'''1,190,652'''
|(832)
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|292
|(75,771)
|406
|(3,639)
|-
|-
|'''Total equity'''
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|'''926,825'''
|(10,494)
|'''1,191,058'''
|(11,904)
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated statement of cash flows
!
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|'''Operating activities'''
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|
|(1,461)
|
|(3,210)
|-
|-
|Profit for the year after tax
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|147,560
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|147,992
|18,593
|-
|-
|Taxation
|Increase in loan receivable due from associates
|16,097
|(1,124)
|20,935
|(74)
|-
|-
|Profit for the year before tax
|Interest received
|163,657
|1,596
|168,927
|1,129
|-
|-
|Loss/(gain) on disposal of properties
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) investing activities'''
|(54)
|'''(107,475)'''
|623
|'''63'''
|-
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|'''Financing activities'''
|(65)
|
|(94)
|  
|-
|-
|Net exchange differences
|Shares purchased
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(1,975)
|(2,389)
|-
|-
|Share-based payments
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|3,148
|(2,020)
|4,173
|(1,686)
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|(99,585)
|(11,381)
|(140,884)
|(26,211)
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|(136)
|(5)
|(996)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|Proceeds from loans
|669
|400,000
|1,167
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|Repayment of loans
|897
|(173,791)
|1,164
|(2,699)
|-
|-
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|521
|(2,931)
|843
|(775)
|-
|-
|Goodwill impairment
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|(3,697)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|40,906
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|(4,977)
|(7,559)
|(6,940)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|Finance charges paid
|(4,170)
|(2,747)
|-
|'''Cash flows (used in)/from financing activities'''
|'''194,446'''
|'''(36,507)'''
|-
|'''Increase in cash and cash equivalents'''
|'''121,932'''
|'''11,611'''
|-
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|'''-'''
|'''(479)'''
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the period
|(2,712)
|65,674
|(2,986)
|150,966
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the period end'''
|9,869
|'''187,606'''
|23,219
|'''162,098'''
|}
 
{| class="wikitable"
!Risk area
!Principal risk(s)
|-
|-
|'''Changes in working capital'''
| rowspan="4" |Financing
|
|Availability and pricing of debt
|
|-
|-
|Increase in trade and other receivables
|Compliance with loan facility covenants
|(2,518)
|(5,196)
|-
|-
|Increase in trade and other payables
|Availability and pricing of equity capital
|2,913
|3,470
|-
|Taxation paid
|(632)
|(3,671)
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows from operating activities'''
|Reputational risk
|'''70,995'''
|'''81,750'''
|-
|-
|'''Investing activities'''
| rowspan="2" |Valuation
|
|Property inherently difficult to value
|
|-
|-
|Purchase of investment properties
|Susceptibility of property market to change in value
|(35,484)
|(162,844)
|-
|-
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
| rowspan="3" |Markets
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|Participation within two geographically diverse markets
|(1,860)
|-
|-
|Proceeds from loss on control of subsidiaries (net of cash disposed)
|Reliance on specific industries and the SME market
|65
|94
|-
|-
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|Reduction in occupancy
|(31,104)
|(23,786)
|-
|-
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
| rowspan="2" |Acquisitive growth
|(2,718)
|Decrease in number of acquisition opportunities coming to market
|(3,540)
|-
|-
|Acquisition of a subsidiary (net of cash acquired)
|Failure to acquire suitable properties with desired returns
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(254,730)
|-
|-
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
| rowspan="3" |Organic growth
|30
|Failure to deliver capex investment programmes
|15,297
|-
|-
|Increase in loans receivable due from associates
|Failure to refuel capex investment programmes
|(5,950)
|(1,124)
|-
|-
|Interest received
|Failure to achieve targeted returns from investments
|1,627
|2,986
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows used in investing activities'''
| rowspan="4" |Customer
|'''(73,534)'''
|Decline in demand for space
|'''(429,507)'''
|-
|-
|'''Financing activities'''
|Significant tenant move-outs or insolvencies
|
|
|-
|-
|Proceeds from issue of share capital
|Exposure to tenants' inability to meet rental and other lease commitments
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|159,926
|-
|-
|Transaction costs on issue of shares
|Tenant affordability
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(6,219)
|-
|-
|Shares purchased
|Regulatory and tax
|(1,613)
|Non-compliance with tax or regulatory obligations
|(5,545)
|-
|-
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|People
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|Inability to recruit and retain people with the appropriate skillset to deliver the Group strategy
|(3,519)
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
| rowspan="3" |Systems and data
|(24,248)
|System failures and loss of data
|(30,815)
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|Security breaches
|(63)
|(5)
|-
|-
|Proceeds from loans
|Data protection
|20,000
|750,000
|-
|-
|Repayment of loans
| rowspan="5" |Macro-economic
|(33,753)
|Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
|(399,431)
|-
|-
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|Inflationary pressure leading to increased costs
|(5,681)
|(5,871)
|-
|-
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|Interest rate movements impacting the commercial real estate market
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(5,335)
|-
|-
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|Delays in cash collection and tenant insolvencies
|(134)
|(14,369)
|-
|-
|Finance charges paid
|Energy supply shortages caused by a variety of economic and geopolitical factors
|(7,558)
|(7,067)
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) financing activities'''
| rowspan="4" |ESG
|'''(53,050)'''
|Unforeseen costs relating to physical and transition risks associated with climate change
|'''431,750'''
|-
|-
|'''Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents'''
|Reputational risk
|'''(55,589)'''
|'''83,993'''
|-
|-
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|Failure to meet shareholder and societal requirements or expectations
|'''-'''
|'''1,299'''
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the year
|Restricted access to financing market due to higher requirements ("green financing")
|121,263
|65,674
|-
|-
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the year end'''
|Foreign currency
|'''65,674'''
|Financial impact of uncontrollable foreign currency fluctuation on earnings and net asset value
|'''150,966'''
|}
|}


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== References and notes ==
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