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== Summary ==
== Summary ==


* Sirius Real Estate, the FTSE 250 real estate investment company, has made eight noteworthy announcements since our last report (on 12th April 2022).
* Sirius Real Estate, the FTSE 250 real estate investment company, has made eight material announcements since our last report on the company (on 12th April 2022).
*For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has performed exceptionally well in the six months ended 30th September 2022, growing funds from operations (FFO) by 47% over the period.
*For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has performed exceptionally well in the six months ended 30th September 2022, growing funds from operations (FFO) by 47% over the period.  
*Accordingly, we have updated our forecasts, and estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate over the next 12-months is 197%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £197,000 in 12-months time.
*Accordingly, we have updated our forecasts, and estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate over the next 12-months is 57%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £157,000 in 12-months time.
*We note that the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low', with the company's shares having an adjusted beta<ref>Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Sirius's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is 10% or less above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in the company is considered to be 'low' (6%<10%). For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref> that is 6% above the market (1.06 vs. 1).
*We note that the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low', with the company's shares having an adjusted beta<ref name=":0">Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Sirius's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is 10% or less above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in the company is considered to be relatively 'low' (1.6%<10%). For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. In terms of the benchmark, we suggest using the iShares MSCI World ETF. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref> that is 1.6% above the market (1.016 vs. 1).
*All-in-all, assuming that a suitable return level in the next 12 months is 10% or more, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
*All-in-all, assuming that a suitable return level in the next 12 months is 10% or more, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
Line 50: Line 50:
During the six month period, revenue increased by 47.7% to €130.6 million (H1 FY2022: €88.4 million), mainly driven by higher rental and service charge. In Germany, like-for-like annualised rent roll improved by 2.4% to €115.2 million (H1 FY2022: €112.5 million), and in the United Kingdom, by 4.1% to €46.5 million (H1 FY2022: €44.7 million). Profit before tax decreased by 3% to €75.7 million (H1 FY2022: €78.2 million).
During the six month period, revenue increased by 47.7% to €130.6 million (H1 FY2022: €88.4 million), mainly driven by higher rental and service charge. In Germany, like-for-like annualised rent roll improved by 2.4% to €115.2 million (H1 FY2022: €112.5 million), and in the United Kingdom, by 4.1% to €46.5 million (H1 FY2022: €44.7 million). Profit before tax decreased by 3% to €75.7 million (H1 FY2022: €78.2 million).


Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million).  
Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million) and debt at €993 million (H2 FY2022: €996 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million).  


Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period. cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents).
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period. cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents).
Line 59: Line 59:


Given the rising interest rates and the uncertainty that this and the many other factors affecting the German and UK property markets are causing at the moment, the company has prioritised improving its debt ratios and building up its cash reserves. Net LTV, which reduces the loan balance by free cash (excluding restricted cash balances) in its calculation, was 41.0% (FY2022: 41.6%) whilst interest cover at EBITDA level was 8.1x as at 30th September 2022 (FY2022: 7.3x). The group added that it's fully committed to continue reducing its net LTV to be well within 40% or below in the near term.
Given the rising interest rates and the uncertainty that this and the many other factors affecting the German and UK property markets are causing at the moment, the company has prioritised improving its debt ratios and building up its cash reserves. Net LTV, which reduces the loan balance by free cash (excluding restricted cash balances) in its calculation, was 41.0% (FY2022: 41.6%) whilst interest cover at EBITDA level was 8.1x as at 30th September 2022 (FY2022: 7.3x). The group added that it's fully committed to continue reducing its net LTV to be well within 40% or below in the near term.
 
{| class="wikitable"
== Reaffirmed Investment Rating ==
|+Consolidated Income Statement
On the 7th November 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that the rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed the company's BBB investment grade rating with 'Stable Outlook' (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating).
!
 
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
In its rating, Fitch noted that it expects Sirius's income to remain stable, due to an active focus on occupancy and low affordable rents for the company's out-of-town locations. It also highlighted the benefits of the Sirius operating platform and the resilience of its core, high-yielding portfolio. Fitch anticipates that total average portfolio occupancy levels will remain above 80%.
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
 
!Movement (%)
== Early refinancing of next major debt expiry ==
|-
On 6th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed the early refinancing of the the company's next major debt expiry, a €170 million facility with Berlin Hyp AG, approximately one year in advance of the facility's due date.  
|'''Rental Income'''
 
|'''79.2'''
The refinancing comprises a new 7-year, €170 million facility at a fixed interest rate of 4.26%, which will replace and redeem the existing facility upon its expiry on 31 October 2023.
|'''49.6'''
 
|'''+60%'''
As of 30 September 2022, the group had a total of €993 million of outstanding debt, €750 million of which is unsecured. The remaining €243 million comprised mortgage-backed debt, of which the most significant tranche is the newly refinanced €170 million Berlin Hyp AG facility referred to above.
|-
 
|Titanium income
This refinancing facility extends the group's total weighted average debt expiry from 3.8 years to 5.0 years. When the new facility commences just over a year from now, the group's weighted average cost of debt will increase from 1.4% to 1.9%.
|3.5
 
|3.4  
The company has €1.6 billion of unencumbered assets and in excess of €138 million of free cash available. Within the next 12 months, Sirius has a total of €35 million of debt expiring, which it is confident of either extending terms with the existing lenders, replacing with new lenders or paying down.
|
 
|-
== Acquisitions and disposals update ==
|Service charge irrecoverable costs
On 4th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed three acquisitions in Germany, for €44.6 million.
|(3.7)
 
|(1.7)
These acquisitions were all notarised prior to the end of June and have been predominantly funded using capital recycled from three strategic disposals in Germany and the UK for a combined €33.6 million.
|
 
|-
The disposals have been made at a premium to book value.
|Non-recoverable maintenance
 
|(2.5)
The three disposals were of assets that offered limited further growth opportunities due to location and/or condition, and comprised:
|(1.7)
 
|
The notarisation of a €1.0 million 3,200 sqm non-income producing land plot in Heiligenhaus, Germany which had a book value of €250,000 at the time of notarisation. This asset is being sold to a supermarket chain as part of its expansion plans, with the transaction expected to complete in January 2023.
|-
 
|'''Net Operating Income'''
The three new acquisitions totalling €44.6 million currently generate a combined total of €2.3 million of rental income and €1.6 million of net operating profit annually. The three acquired assets have a combined occupancy of just 54% and offer a range of avenues for Sirius to leverage its significant value creation expertise to grow rental income. The acquired assets comprise:
|'''76.5'''
 
|'''49.6'''
# A €39.8 million (including costs) mixed-use property in Düsseldorf, Germany, situated 2.6 km from the city's international airport. The property comprises mainly office and warehouse/light industrial space and is 55% occupied, offering good value add potential.
|'''+54%'''
# A €3.9 million (including costs) primarily warehouse asset located in a well-developed commercial area in Dreieich, Germany, that is strategically adjacent to an existing property owned by Sirius.  We intend to convert the property into a self-storage facility, adding to our existing SmartSpace Self-Storage brand that now exists in 32 locations across Germany.
|-
# A €0.9 million (including costs) small 239 sqm vacant office building in Potsdam. The property is placed strategically at the entrance to one of the Company's existing sites and directly adjacent to the world famous Babelsberg Film Studios.
|Corporate costs and overheads
 
|(20.8)
The company said that it has identified a number of asset management initiatives within the three newly acquired properties which will allow it to grow rental income and occupancy by leasing into markets where it sees continued strong demand for its products.
|(10.4)  
 
|
The company added that it expects to slow its acquisition pipeline, and that it will also continue to seek to dispose of non-core or mature assets as and when it feels the timing is right.
|-
 
|'''Adjusted EBITDA'''
== Change of Chief Financial Officer ==
|'''55.7'''
On the 16th August 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that for personal reasons, Diarmuid Kelly has decided to step down as the company's Chief Financial Officer.  
|'''39.2'''
 
|'''+42%'''
Alistair Marks, the Chief Investment Officer and former CFO of the company, has stepped in as the interim CFO. The company has begun the search for a new CFO.
|-
 
|Bank interest
== Sale of Bizspace Camberwell ==
|(6.9)
On 16th May 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced the sale of a business park asset for £16 million, representing a 94% premium to the valuation that the asset was initially acquired by the company in November 2021 (i.e. in less than eight months). The proceeds will be used to invest in higher yielding UK opportunities.
|(4.5)
 
|
Key features of the asset include:
|-
 
|Current tax (excluding tax on disposals)  
* It's located in Camberwell, London.
|(0.3)
* It's multi-tenanted.
|(1.7)
* It comprises approx. 34,700 sq. ft. of industrial and office space, and is 91% occupied.
|
* The sale price represents a net initial yield (NIY), which is the current annualised rent, net of costs, expressed as a percentage of capital value, after adding notional purchaser's costs, of around 2.0%.
|-
 
|'''FFO'''
== Board changes ==
|'''48.5'''
On 13th June 2022, the company announced two board changes.
|'''33.0'''
 
|'''+47%'''
Caroline Britton was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the Senior Independent Director. Caroline has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since June 2020 and chairs the Audit Committee and is a member of the Nomination Committee of the Board.
|-
 
|Depreciation & amortisation of financing fees
Joanne Kenrick was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the chair of the Remuneration Committee. Joanne has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since September 2021 and is a member of the Nomination and Sustainability and Ethics Committees of the Board.
|(3.3)
 
|(1.9)
James Peggie will continue as a non-executive Director and a member of the Audit, Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.
|
 
|-
== Final results ==
|Add back current taxes (excluding tax on disposals)
On 13th June 2022, the company announced its full year results for the year ended 31st March 2022.
|0.3
 
|1.7
During the 12-month period, revenue increased by 27% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million), and the gain on revaluation of investment properties jumped by 41% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million); however, mainly due to an impairment charge, higher administrative expenses and interest expenses, the net profit remained more-or-less unchanged at €147 million (FY 2021: €147 million).
|
 
|-
In terms of the financial position of the company, the net current assets increased by more than 3x to €55 million (FY 2021: €17 million), and the net asset value (NAV) rose by by 28% to €1.19 billion (FY 2021: €0.93 billion).
|IFRS 16 & foreign exchange effects
 
|(1.9)  
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 15% to €82 million (FY2021: €71 million), and mainly due to the acquisition of a subsidiary and purchase of investment properties, cash flows used in investing activities increased by almost 6x to €430 million (FY2021: €74 million). Cash flows from financing activities swung to €431 million (FY2021: negative €54 million), driven by the proceeds of loans and the issue of share capital. The total dividend per share for the year increased by 16% to 4.41 cents (FY2021: 3.80%).
|(0.5)
 
|
Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million).
|-
{| class="wikitable"
|'''Adjusted Profit Before Tax'''
|+Results for the year ended 31st March 2022
|'''43.6'''
!
|'''32.3'''
!Forecast
|'''+35%'''
!Actual
|-
!Difference (%)
|Adjusting items
|(3.0)<ref>Adjusting items include costs relating to share awards, costs relating to the repayment of secured debt and acquisition costs relating to the acquisition of BizSpace.</ref>
|(7.0)
|
|-
|Surplus/Deficit on revaluation of investment properties
|27.7
|51.5
|
|-
|Goodwill impairment
| -
| -
|
|-
|Gain/Loss on disposal of investment properties
|4.8
|(0.3)  
|
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|1.2
|0.2
|
|-
|Share of profit in associate not included in FFO
|1.4  
|1.5
|
|-
|'''Profit Before Tax'''
|'''75.7'''
|'''78.2'''
|'''(3)%'''
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
!
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Movement (%)
|-
|Assets
|
|
|
|-
|Investment properties (owned assets)
|2,082.4
|1,428.5
|46%
|-
|Investment properties (leased assets)  
|23.6
|16.3
|45%
|-
|Investment in associate
|71.1
|63.9
|11%
|-
|-
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
|Plant and equipment
|2.00
|11.3
|2.08
|9.8<ref>Includes €3.7m Goodwill.</ref>
|4.00%
|15%
|-
|Trade and other receivables
|45.0<ref>Includes €15m Right of use assets.</ref>
|100.6
|55)%
|-
|-
|FFO (€'million)
|Derivative financial instruments
|72.0
|1.6
|74.6
|0
|3.61%
| -
|-
|-
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|Cash and cash equivalents
|6.58
|162.1
|6.78
|187.6
|3.04%
|(14)%
|-
|-
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|Total Assets
|4.25
|2,397.1
|4.41
|1,806.7
|3.76%
|33%
|-
|-
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|Liabilities
|104.4
|
|108.5
|
|3.93%
|
|-
|Trade and other payables
|(77.0)
|(49.2)
|57%
|-
|Interest bearing bank loans
|(980.4)
|(689.2)
|42%
|-
|Lease liabilities
|(38.7)<ref>Includes €16.7m Lease Liability for Right of use assets.</ref>
|(16.4)
|136%
|-
|Current & Deferred tax liabilities
|(86.2)  
|(68.5)
|26%
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
| -
|(0.5)
|(100)%
|-
|Total Liabilities
|(1,182.3)
|(823.8)
|44%
|-
|Net Assets
|1,214.8
|982.9
|24%
|-
|NAV per share
|103.90c
|92.62c
|12%
|-
|Adjusted NAV per share
|110.72c
|98.80c
|12%
|-
|EPRA NTA per share
|109.47c
|97.02c
|13%
|}
|}


== Financials ==
== Reaffirmed Investment Rating ==
On the 7th November 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that the rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed the company's BBB investment grade rating with 'Stable Outlook' (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating).
 
In its rating, Fitch noted that it expects Sirius's income to remain stable, due to an active focus on occupancy and low affordable rents for the company's out-of-town locations. It also highlighted the benefits of the Sirius operating platform and the resilience of its core, high-yielding portfolio. Fitch anticipates that total average portfolio occupancy levels will remain above 80%.


{| class="wikitable"
== Early refinancing of next major debt expiry ==
|+Financial forecasts
On 6th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed the early refinancing of the the company's next major debt expiry, a €170 million facility with Berlin Hyp AG, approximately one year in advance of the facility's due date.
!
 
! colspan="3" |31 March 2023
The refinancing comprises a new 7-year, €170 million facility at a fixed interest rate of 4.26%, which will replace and redeem the existing facility upon its expiry on 31 October 2023.
! colspan="3" |31 March 2024
 
|-
As of 30 September 2022, the group had a total of €993 million of outstanding debt, €750 million of which is unsecured. The remaining €243 million comprised mortgage-backed debt, of which the most significant tranche is the newly refinanced €170 million Berlin Hyp AG facility referred to above.
!
 
!Old
This refinancing facility extends the group's total weighted average debt expiry from 3.8 years to 5.0 years. When the new facility commences just over a year from now, the group's weighted average cost of debt will increase from 1.4% to 1.9%.
!New
 
!Change (%)
The company has €1.6 billion of unencumbered assets and in excess of €138 million of free cash available. Within the next 12 months, Sirius has a total of €35 million of debt expiring, which it is confident of either extending terms with the existing lenders, replacing with new lenders or paying down.
!Old
 
!New
== Acquisitions and disposals update ==
!Change (%)
On 4th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed three acquisitions in Germany, for €44.6 million.
|-
 
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
These acquisitions were all notarised prior to the end of June and have been predominantly funded using capital recycled from three strategic disposals in Germany and the UK for a combined €33.6 million.
|2.12
 
|2.12
The disposals have been made at a premium to book value.
|0.00%
 
|2.21
The three disposals were of assets that offered limited further growth opportunities due to location and/or condition, and comprised:
|2.15
 
|(2.71%)
The notarisation of a €1.0 million 3,200 sqm non-income producing land plot in Heiligenhaus, Germany which had a book value of €250,000 at the time of notarisation. This asset is being sold to a supermarket chain as part of its expansion plans, with the transaction expected to complete in January 2023.
|-
 
|FFO (€'million)
The three new acquisitions totalling €44.6 million currently generate a combined total of €2.3 million of rental income and €1.6 million of net operating profit annually. The three acquired assets have a combined occupancy of just 54% and offer a range of avenues for Sirius to leverage its significant value creation expertise to grow rental income. The acquired assets comprise:
|90.1
 
|97.0
# A €39.8 million (including costs) mixed-use property in Düsseldorf, Germany, situated 2.6 km from the city's international airport. The property comprises mainly office and warehouse/light industrial space and is 55% occupied, offering good value add potential.
|7.66%
# A €3.9 million (including costs) primarily warehouse asset located in a well-developed commercial area in Dreieich, Germany, that is strategically adjacent to an existing property owned by Sirius.  We intend to convert the property into a self-storage facility, adding to our existing SmartSpace Self-Storage brand that now exists in 32 locations across Germany.
|95.1
# A €0.9 million (including costs) small 239 sqm vacant office building in Potsdam. The property is placed strategically at the entrance to one of the Company's existing sites and directly adjacent to the world famous Babelsberg Film Studios.
|100.0
 
|5.15%
The company said that it has identified a number of asset management initiatives within the three newly acquired properties which will allow it to grow rental income and occupancy by leasing into markets where it sees continued strong demand for its products.
|-
 
|FFO/share (€'cents)
The company added that it expects to slow its acquisition pipeline, and that it will also continue to seek to dispose of non-core or mature assets as and when it feels the timing is right.
|7.75
|8.25
|6.45%
|8.16
|8.50
|4.17%
|-
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|5.0
|5.4
|8.00%
|5.3
|5.6
|5.66%
|-
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|110.9
|109.5
|(1.26%)
|118.0
|114.5
|(2.97%)
|}


{| class="wikitable"
== Change of Chief Financial Officer ==
|+Consolidated income statement
On the 16th August 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that for personal reasons, Diarmuid Kelly has decided to step down as the company's Chief Financial Officer.
!
 
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
Alistair Marks, the Chief Investment Officer and former CFO of the company, has stepped in as the interim CFO. The company has begun the search for a new CFO.
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
 
!Year ended 31 March 2023 (€000)
== Sale of Bizspace Camberwell ==
!Year ended 31 March 2024 (€000)
On 16th May 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced the sale of a business park asset for £16 million, representing a 94% premium to the valuation that the asset was initially acquired by the company in November 2021 (i.e. in less than eight months). The proceeds will be used to invest in higher yielding UK opportunities.
|-
 
|Revenue
Key features of the asset include:
|165,361
 
|210,182
* It's located in Camberwell, London.
|154,500
* It's multi-tenanted.
|159,000
* It comprises approx. 34,700 sq. ft. of industrial and office space, and is 91% occupied.
|-
* The sale price represents a net initial yield (NIY), which is the current annualised rent, net of costs, expressed as a percentage of capital value, after adding notional purchaser's costs, of around 2.0%.
|Direct costs
 
|(71,541)
== Board changes ==
|(87,689)
On 13th June 2022, the company announced two board changes.
|
 
|
Caroline Britton was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the Senior Independent Director. Caroline has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since June 2020 and chairs the Audit Committee and is a member of the Nomination Committee of the Board.
|-
 
|'''Net operating income'''
Joanne Kenrick was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the chair of the Remuneration Committee. Joanne has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since September 2021 and is a member of the Nomination and Sustainability and Ethics Committees of the Board.
|'''93,820'''
 
|'''122,493'''
James Peggie will continue as a non-executive Director and a member of the Audit, Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.
|
 
|
== Final results ==
|-
On 13th June 2022, the company announced its full year results for the year ended 31st March 2022.
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
 
|99,585
During the 12-month period, revenue increased by 27% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million), and the gain on revaluation of investment properties jumped by 41% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million); however, mainly due to an impairment charge, higher administrative expenses and interest expenses, the net profit remained more-or-less unchanged at €147 million (FY 2021: €147 million).
|140,884
 
|
In terms of the financial position of the company, the net current assets increased by more than 3x to €55 million (FY 2021: €17 million), and the net asset value (NAV) rose by by 28% to €1.19 billion (FY 2021: €0.93 billion).
|
 
Cash flows from operating activities increased by 15% to €82 million (FY2021: €71 million), and mainly due to the acquisition of a subsidiary and purchase of investment properties, cash flows used in investing activities increased by almost 6x to €430 million (FY2021: €74 million). Cash flows from financing activities swung to €431 million (FY2021: negative €54 million), driven by the proceeds of loans and the issue of share capital. The total dividend per share for the year increased by 16% to 4.41 cents (FY2021: 3.80%).
 
Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million).
{| class="wikitable"
|+How do the results compare to our forecasts?
!
!Forecast
!Actual
!Difference (%)
|-
|-
|(Loss)/gain on disposal of properties
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
|54
|2.00
|(623)
|2.08
|
|4.00%
|
|-
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|FFO (€'million)
|65
|72.0
|94
|74.6
|
|3.61%
|
|-
|-
|Administrative expenses
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|(27,823)
|6.58
|(40,718)
|6.78
|
|3.04%
|
|-
|-
|Goodwill impairment
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|4.25
|(40,906)
|4.41
|
|3.76%
|
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|4,977
|104.4
|6,940
|108.5
|
|3.93%
|
|}
 
== Financials ==
 
{| class="wikitable"
|+How have our forecasts changed?
!
! colspan="3" |31 March 2023
! colspan="3" |31 March 2024
|-
|-
|'''Operating profit'''
!
|'''170,678'''
!Old
|'''188,164'''
!New
|
!Change (%)
|
!Old
!New
!Change (%)
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Portfolio value (€'billion)
|2,712
|2.12
|2,986
|2.12
|
|0.00%
|
|2.21
|2.15
|(2.71%)
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|FFO (€'million)
|(9,869)
|90.1
|(23,219)
|97.0
|
|7.66%
|
|95.1
|100.0
|5.15%
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|FFO/share (€'cents)
|136
|7.75
|996
|8.25
|
|6.45%
|
|8.16
|8.50
|4.17%
|-
|-
|'''Net finance costs'''
|Dividend/share (€'cents)
|'''(7,021)'''
|5.0
|'''(19,237)'''
|5.4
|
|8.00%
|
|5.3
|5.6
|5.66%
|-
|-
|'''Profit before tax'''
|Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents)
|'''163,657'''
|110.9
|'''168,927'''
|109.5
|91,570
|(1.26%)
|95,770
|118.0
|-
|114.5
|Taxation
|(2.97%)
|(16,097)
|}
|(20,935)
 
|
== Risks ==
|
As with any investment, investing in Sirius carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the company's market beta (i.e. 1.016), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low'. Here, to estimate the adjusted beta<ref name=":0" />, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice.
|-
 
|'''Profit for the year after tax'''
For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to macro-economic factors, in particular unexpected and sudden changes in inflation and interest rates movements, ultimately resulting in a reduction in the affordability and, therefore, demand of the company's assets/properties. With that said, the company has a diverse tenant base, with its top 50 tenants generating 45% of annual income in Germany, and 26% of annual income generated by the top 100 tenants in the UK. Sirius also has no material dependencies on specific industries, and a track record of buying and building high-returning investment opportunities. 
|'''147,560'''
 
|'''147,992'''
== Valuation ==
|95,500
Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or less, the approach that is more accurate is the relative valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
|97,950
 
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Sirius using the relative valuation approach? ====
Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next 12-months is 57%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £157,000 within 12-months from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
 
Assuming that a suitable return level in the 12 months is 10% and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of 197%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
 
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|P/FFO
|The FFO does not account for depreciation in properties but rather adds back the depreciation value back to the net income. Furthmore, FFO deducts any gains or losses from the sale of assets, since including the transaction would result in discrepancies in the revenues reported in each period. Accordingly, we suggest valuing the company using the Price to Funds From Operations (P/FFO) ratio.
|-
|-
|'''Profit attributable to:'''
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, for the FFO figure, which year to you want to use?
|
|Twelve months ahead
|
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the FFO figure, we suggest using the twelve months ahead.
|
|
|-
|-
|Owners of the Company
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|147,451
|18x
|147,873
|According to Bloomberg, Sirius Real Estate Limited closest peers trade on a multiple of 18x.
|95,500
|97,950
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|109
|Proactive Investors
|119
|Here, we have used the forecasts of Proactive Investors.
|
|
|-
|-
|
|What's the current value of the company?
|147,560
|£981.20 million
|147,992
|As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of Sirius Real Estate Limited is £981.20 million.
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Earnings per share'''
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|
|Between now and one year time
|
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.
|
|}
|
 
=== Sensitive analysis ===
The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
 
# The P/FFO multiple (the default multiple is 18x); and
# The twelve months ahead FFO forecast (the default forecast is €98.78 million).
 
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|-
|Basic earnings per share
|The P/FFO multiple
|14.16c
|43%
|13.48c
|57%
|8.00c
|73%
|8.00c
|-
|-
|Diluted earnings per share
|The twelve months ahead FFO forecast
|13.96c
|43%
|13.29c
|57%
|8.00c
|73%
|8.00c
|}
|}
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated statement of financial position
|+Peers
!
!Company name
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Bloomberg ticker
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
!Primary exchange
!Classification
!Industry
!Market capitalisation (GBP)
!BF P/FFO
!Yield (%)
!Interest cover (x)
!Total debt/total capital
|-
|-
|'''Non-current assets'''
|Sirius Real Estate Ltd
|
|SRE LN
|
|United Kingdom
|-
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Investment properties
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,362,192
|979,494,700
|2,100,004
|11.5111
|4.08%
|5.42
|46.14%
|-
|-
|Plant and equipment
|FastPartner AB
|2,682
|FPARA SS
|5,492
|Sweden
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,170,459,785
| --
|2.93%
|4.50
|48.51%
|-
|-
|Intangible assets
|Cibus Nordic Real Estate AB
|6,568
|CIBUS SS
|4,283
|Sweden
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|57,4491,440
| --
|6.78%
|3.47
|61.04%
|-
|-
|Right of use assets
|Shaftesbury PLC
|1,919
|SHB LN
|14,996
|United Kingdom
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,385,308,138
|33.7009
|2.48%
|1.99
|27.95%
|-
|-
|Other non-current financial assets
|Intershop Holding AG
|44,960
|ISN SW
|48,330
|Switzerland
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,011,223,384
| --
|4.08%
|(10.25)
|34.63%
|-
|-
|Investment in associates
|WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbes
|17,202
|WCMK GR
|24,142
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|497,815,111
| --
|2.86%
|6.18
|2.77%
|-
|-
|'''Total non-current assets'''
|Metrovacesa SA
|'''1,435,523'''
|MVC SM
|'''2,197,247'''
|Spain
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|874,166,035
|25.1504
|30.90%
|N/A
|15.84%
|-
|-
|'''Current assets'''
|Brack Capital Properties NV
|
|BCNV IT
|
|Italy
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|601,880,806
| --
| --
|(11.66)
|42.48%
|-
|-
|Trade and other receivables
|TLG Immobilien AG
|18,731
|TLG GR
|24,571
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,949,040,400
|23.0976
|4.70%
|4.89
|15.32%
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|GAG Immobilien AG
|70
|GWK3 GR
|329
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|1,097,732,888
| --
|0.65%
|3.87
|71.78%
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents
|Gateway Real Estate AG
|65,674
|GTY GR
|150,966
|Germany
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|498,775,280
| --
| --
|0.25
|63.50%
|}
 
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated income statement
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|'''Total current assets'''
|Revenue
|'''84,475'''
|88,352
|'''175,866'''
|130,558
|-
|-
|Assets held for sale
|Direct costs
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(38,843)
|13,750
|(57,350)
|-
|-
|'''Total assets'''
|Net operating income
|'''1,519,998'''
|49,509
|'''2,386,863'''
|73,208
|-
|-
|'''Current liabilities'''
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|
|48,414
|
|26,812
|-
|-
|Trade and other payables
|Gain/(loss) on disposal of properties
|(50,527)
|(400)
|(89,335)
|4,801
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|(9,114)
|94
|(19,630)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Administrative expenses
|(5,857)
|(12,311)
|(1,090)
|(24,809)
|-
|-
|Current tax liabilities
|Share of profit of associates
|(2,063)
|2,463
|(10,423)
|2,597
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Operating profit
|(414)
|87,769
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|82,609
|-
|-
|'''Total current liabilities'''
|Finance income
|'''(67,975)'''
|1,596
|'''(120,478)'''
|1,129
|-
|-
|'''Non-current liabilities'''
|Finance expense
|
|(11,347)
|
|(9,249)
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|(458,940)
|160
|(961,863)
|1,244
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Net finance costs
|(9,130)
|(9,591)
|(37,571)
|(6,876)
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Profit before tax
|(797)
|78,178
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|75,733
|-
|-
|Deferred tax liabilities
|Taxation
|(56,331)
|(10,386)
|(75,893)
|(5,673)
|-
|-
|'''Total non-current liabilities'''
|Profit for the period after tax
|'''(525,198)'''
|67,792
|'''(1,075,327)'''
|70,060
|-
|-
|'''Total liabilities'''
|Profit attributable to:
|'''(593,173)'''
|'''(1,195,805)'''
|-
|'''Net assets'''
|'''926,825'''
|'''1,191,058'''
|-
|'''Equity'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Issued share capital
|Owners of the Company
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|67,738
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|70,008
|-
|-
|Other distributable reserve
|Non-controlling interest
|449,051
|54
|570,369
|52
|-
|-
|Own shares held
|
|(2,903)
|67,792
|(6,274)
|70,060
|-
|-
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|Earnings per share
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|
|(1,701)
|
|-
|-
|Retained earnings
|Basic earnings per share
|480,385
|6.44c
|628,258
|6.00c
|-
|-
|'''Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company'''
|Diluted earnings per share
|'''926,533'''
|6.33c
|'''1,190,652'''
|5.92c
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|292
|406
|-
|'''Total equity'''
|'''926,825'''
|'''1,191,058'''
|}
|}
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated statement of cash flows
|+Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
!
!
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|'''Operating activities'''
|Non-current assets
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Profit for the year after tax
|Investment properties
|147,560
|2,100,004
|147,992
|2,105,046
|-
|-
|Taxation
|Plant and equipment
|16,097
|5,492
|20,935
|7,199
|-
|-
|Profit for the year before tax
|Intangible assets
|163,657
|4,283
|168,927
|4,129
|-
|-
|Loss/(gain) on disposal of properties
|Right of use assets
|(54)
|14,996
|623
|15,259
|-
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|Other non-current financial assets
|(65)
|48,330
|(94)
|48,409
|-
|-
|Net exchange differences
|Investment in associates
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|24,142
|(1,975)
|26,739
|-
|-
|Share-based payments
|Total non-current assets
|3,148
|2,197,247
|4,173
|2,206,781
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|Current assets
|(99,585)
|
|(140,884)
|
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Trade and other receivables
|(136)
|24,571
|(996)
|24,420
|-
|-
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|Derivative financial instruments
|669
|329
|1,167
|1,573
|-
|-
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|Cash and cash equivalents
|897
|150,966
|1,164
|162,098
|-
|-
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|Total current assets
|521
|175,866
|843
|188,091
|-
|-
|Goodwill impairment
|Assets held for sale
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|13,750
|40,906
|1,000
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|Total assets
|(4,977)
|2,386,863
|(6,940)
|2,395,872
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Current liabilities
|(2,712)
|
|(2,986)
|
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|Trade and other payables
|9,869
|(89,335)
|23,219
|(76,993)
|-
|-
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|
|(19,630)
|
|(37,243)
|-
|-
|Increase in trade and other receivables
|Lease liabilities
|(2,518)
|(1,090)
|(5,196)
|(1,458)
|-
|-
|Increase in trade and other payables
|Current tax liabilities
|2,913
|(10,423)
|3,470
|(4,978)
|-
|Taxation paid
|(632)
|(3,671)
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows from operating activities'''
|Total current liabilities
|'''70,995'''
|(120,478)
|'''81,750'''
|(120,672)
|-
|-
|'''Investing activities'''
|Non-current liabilities
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Purchase of investment properties
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|(35,484)
|(961,863)
|(162,844)
|(943,176)
|-
|-
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|Lease liabilities
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(37,571)
|(1,860)
|(37,233)
|-
|-
|Proceeds from loss on control of subsidiaries (net of cash disposed)
|Deferred tax liabilities
|65
|(75,893)
|94
|(81,220)
|-
|-
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|Total non-current liabilities
|(31,104)
|(1,075,327)
|(23,786)
|(1,061,629)
|-
|-
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|Total liabilities
|(2,718)
|(1,195,805)
|(3,540)
|(1,182,301)
|-
|-
|Acquisition of a subsidiary (net of cash acquired)
|Net assets
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|1,191,058
|(254,730)
|1,213,571
|-
|-
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|Equity
|30
|
|15,297
|-
|Increase in loans receivable due from associates
|(5,950)
|(1,124)
|-
|Interest received
|1,627
|2,986
|-
|'''Cash flows used in investing activities'''
|'''(73,534)'''
|'''(429,507)'''
|-
|'''Financing activities'''
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Proceeds from issue of share capital
|Issued share capital
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|159,926
|-
|Transaction costs on issue of shares
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(6,219)
|-
|-
|Shares purchased
|Other distributable reserve
|(1,613)
|570,369
|(5,545)
|544,419
|-
|-
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|Own shares held
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(6,274)
|(3,519)
|(8,329)
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|(24,248)
|(1,701)
|(30,815)
|(21,243)
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|Retained earnings
|(63)
|628,258
|(5)
|698,266
|-
|-
|Proceeds from loans
|Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company
|20,000
|1,190,652
|750,000
|1,213,113
|-
|-
|Repayment of loans
|Non-controlling interest
|(33,753)
|406
|(399,431)
|458
|-
|-
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|Total equity
|(5,681)
|1,191,058
|(5,871)
|1,213,571
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated statement of cash flow
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|'''Operating activities'''
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|
|(5,335)
|
|-
|-
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|Profit for the period after tax
|(134)
|67,792
|(14,369)
|70,060
|-
|-
|Finance charges paid
|Taxation
|(7,558)
|10,386
|(7,067)
|5,673
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) financing activities'''
|Profit for the period before tax
|'''(53,050)'''
|78,178
|'''431,750'''
|75,733
|-
|-
|'''Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents'''
|(Gain)/loss on disposal of properties
|'''(55,589)'''
|400
|'''83,993'''
|(4,801)
|-
|-
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|Net exchange differences
|'''-'''
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|'''1,299'''
|(309)
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the year
|Share-based payments
|121,263
|1,403
|65,674
|1,947
|-
|-
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the year end'''
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|'''65,674'''
|(48,414)
|'''150,966'''
|(26,812)
|}
 
== Risks ==
As with any investment, investing in Sirius carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the company's market beta (i.e. 1.06), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is 'low'.
 
For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to macro-economic factors, in particular changes in inflation and interest rates movements, ultimately leading the company to breach its loan facility covenants.
 
That said, with a portfolio loan to value (LTV) of around 40% (ccc vs xxx) and an interest cover of 8.1x (xxx vs xxx), we think such a scenario is highly unlikely. Furthermore, the group operates a value-add business model, which includes investing in its assets and significantly improving net operating income. Such a model typically has the effect of further increasing covenant headroom and significantly mitigating the risk of breaching bank covenants. We note that all covenants were complied with in full since the company's existence(?).
{| class="wikitable"
!Risk area
!Principal risk(s)
|-
|-
| rowspan="4" |Financing
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Availability and pricing of debt
|(160)
|(1,244)
|-
|-
|Compliance with loan facility covenants
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|-
|349
|Availability and pricing of equity capital
|1,027
|-
|-
|Reputational risk
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|564
|629
|-
|-
| rowspan="2" |Valuation
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|Property inherently difficult to value
|260
|1,141
|-
|-
|Susceptibility of property market to change in value
|Share of profit of associates
|(2,463)
|(2,597)
|-
|-
| rowspan="3" |Markets
|Finance income
|Participation within two geographically diverse markets
|(1,596)
|(1,129)
|-
|-
|Reliance on specific industries and the SME market
|Finance expense
|11,347
|9,249
|-
|-
|Reduction in occupancy
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|
|
|-
|-
| rowspan="2" |Acquisitive growth
|Decrease/(increase) in trade and other receivables
|Decrease in number of acquisition opportunities coming to market
|(2,598)
|3,786
|-
|-
|Failure to acquire suitable properties with desired returns
|Decrease in trade and other payables
|(2,053)
|(5,848)
|-
|-
| rowspan="3" |Organic growth
|Taxation paid
|Failure to deliver capex investment programmes
|(256)
|(2,717)
|-
|-
|Failure to refuel capex investment programmes
|Cash flows from operating activities
|34,961
|48,055
|-
|-
|Failure to achieve targeted returns from investments
|Investing activities
|
|
|-
|-
| rowspan="4" |Customer
|Purchase of investment properties
|Decline in demand for space
|(20,221)
|(832)
|-
|-
|Significant tenant move-outs or insolvencies
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|(75,771)
|(3,639)
|-
|-
|Exposure to tenants' inability to meet rental and other lease commitments
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|(10,494)
|(11,904)
|-
|-
|Tenant affordability
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|(1,461)
|(3,210)
|-
|-
|Regulatory and tax
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|Non-compliance with tax or regulatory obligations
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|18,593
|-
|-
|People
|Increase in loan receivable due from associates
|Inability to recruit and retain people with the appropriate skillset to deliver the Group strategy
|(1,124)
|-
|(74)
| rowspan="3" |Systems and data
|System failures and loss of data
|-
|-
|Security breaches
|Interest received
|1,596
|1,129
|-
|-
|Data protection
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) investing activities'''
|'''(107,475)'''
|'''63'''
|-
|-
| rowspan="5" |Macro-economic
|'''Financing activities'''
|Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
|
|  
|-
|-
|Inflationary pressure leading to increased costs
|Shares purchased
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(2,389)
|-
|-
|Interest rate movements impacting the commercial real estate market
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|(2,020)
|(1,686)
|-
|-
|Delays in cash collection and tenant insolvencies
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|(11,381)
|(26,211)
|-
|-
|Energy supply shortages caused by a variety of economic and geopolitical factors
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|(5)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
| rowspan="4" |ESG
|Proceeds from loans
|Unforeseen costs relating to physical and transition risks associated with climate change
|400,000
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Reputational risk
|Repayment of loans
|(173,791)
|(2,699)
|-
|-
|Failure to meet shareholder and societal requirements or expectations
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|(2,931)
|(775)
|-
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|(3,697)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|(7,559)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Restricted access to financing market due to higher requirements ("green financing")
|Finance charges paid
|(4,170)
|(2,747)
|-
|-
|Foreign currency
|'''Cash flows (used in)/from financing activities'''
|Financial impact of uncontrollable foreign currency fluctuation on earnings and net asset value
|'''194,446'''
|}
|'''(36,507)'''
 
== Valuation ==
Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or less, the approach that is more accurate is the relative valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
 
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Sirius using the relative valuation approach? ====
Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next 12-months is 197%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £197,000 within 12-months from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
 
Assuming that a suitable return level in the 12 months is 10% and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of 197%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
 
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|-
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|'''Increase in cash and cash equivalents'''
|P/FFO
|'''121,932'''
|The FFO does not account for depreciation in properties but rather adds back the depreciation value back to the net income. Furthmore, FFO deducts any gains or losses from the sale of assets, since including the transaction would result in discrepancies in the revenues reported in each period. Accordingly, we suggest valuing the company using the Price to Funds From Operations (P/FFO) ratio.
|'''11,611'''
|-
|-
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, for the FFO figure, which year to you want to use?
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|Year 1
|'''-'''
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the FFO figure, we suggest using Year 1.
|'''(479)'''
|-
|-
|In regards to the P/FFO multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the period
|18x
|65,674
|According to Bloomberg, Sirius Real Estate Limited closest peers trade on a multiple of 18x.
|150,966
|-
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the period end'''
|Consensus
|'''187,606'''
|Here, we have used the consensus forecasts.
|'''162,098'''
|-
|What's the current value of the Stockhub company?
|£981.20 million
|As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of its company at £981.20 million.
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and one year time
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.
|}
|}


=== Sensitive analysis ===
The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):


# The P/FFO multiple (the default multiple is 18x); and
{| class="wikitable"
# The year-one FFO forecast (the default forecast is $xxx million); and
|+Consolidated income statement
 
!
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
{| class="wikitable sortable"
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
|+Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
!Year ended 31 March 2023 (€000)
!Main input
!Year ended 31 March 2024 (€000)
!10% worse
|-
!Unchanged
|Revenue
!10% better
|165,361
|210,182
|154,500
|159,000
|-
|-
|The P/FFO multiple
|Direct costs
|(71,541)
|(87,689)
|
|
|
|-
|'''Net operating income'''
|'''93,820'''
|'''122,493'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|The year-one FFO forecast
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|99,585
|140,884
|
|
|
|-
|(Loss)/gain on disposal of properties
|54
|(623)
|
|
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|65
|94
|
|
|
|
|}
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Peers
!Company name
!Bloomberg ticker
!Primary exchange
!Classification
!Industry
!Market capitalisation (GBP)
!BF P/FFO
!Yield (%)
!Interest cover (x)
!Total debt/total capital
|-
|-
|Sirius Real Estate Ltd
|Administrative expenses
|SRE LN
|(27,823)
|United Kingdom
|(40,718)
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|979,494,700
|11.5111
|4.08%
|5.42
|46.14%
|-
|-
|FastPartner AB
|Goodwill impairment
|FPARA SS
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|Sweden
|(40,906)
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|1,170,459,785
| --
|2.93%
|4.50
|48.51%
|-
|-
|Cibus Nordic Real Estate AB
|Share of profit of associates
|CIBUS SS
|4,977
|Sweden
|6,940
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|57,4491,440
|-
| --
|'''Operating profit'''
|6.78%
|'''170,678'''
|3.47
|'''188,164'''
|61.04%
|
|
|-
|-
|Shaftesbury PLC
|Finance income
|SHB LN
|2,712
|United Kingdom
|2,986
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|1,385,308,138
|33.7009
|2.48%
|1.99
|27.95%
|-
|-
|Intershop Holding AG
|Finance expense
|ISN SW
|(9,869)
|Switzerland
|(23,219)
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|1,011,223,384
| --
|4.08%
|(10.25)
|34.63%
|-
|-
|WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbes
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|WCMK GR
|136
|Germany
|996
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|497,815,111
| --
|2.86%
|6.18
|2.77%
|-
|-
|Metrovacesa SA
|'''Net finance costs'''
|MVC SM
|'''(7,021)'''
|Spain
|'''(19,237)'''
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|874,166,035
|25.1504
|30.90%
|N/A
|15.84%
|-
|-
|Brack Capital Properties NV
|'''Profit before tax'''
|BCNV IT
|'''163,657'''
|Italy
|'''168,927'''
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|91,570
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|95,770
|601,880,806
|-
| --
|Taxation
| --
|(16,097)
|(11.66)
|(20,935)
|42.48%
|
|
|-
|-
|TLG Immobilien AG
|'''Profit for the year after tax'''
|TLG GR
|'''147,560'''
|Germany
|'''147,992'''
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|95,500
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|97,950
|1,949,040,400
|23.0976
|4.70%
|4.89
|15.32%
|-
|-
|GAG Immobilien AG
|'''Profit attributable to:'''
|GWK3 GR
|
|Germany
|
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|
|1,097,732,888
| --
|0.65%
|3.87
|71.78%
|-
|-
|Gateway Real Estate AG
|Owners of the Company
|GTY GR
|147,451
|Germany
|147,873
|Multi Asset Class Own & Develop
|95,500
|Real Estate Owners & Developers
|97,950
|498,775,280
| --
| --
|0.25
|63.50%
|}
 
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated income statement
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Revenue
|Non-controlling interest
|88,352
|109
|130,558
|119
|
|
|-
|-
|Direct costs
|
|(38,843)
|147,560
|(57,350)
|147,992
|
|
|-
|-
|Net operating income
|'''Earnings per share'''
|49,509
|
|73,208
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|Basic earnings per share
|48,414
|14.16c
|26,812
|13.48c
|8.00c
|8.00c
|-
|-
|Gain/(loss) on disposal of properties
|Diluted earnings per share
|(400)
|13.96c
|4,801
|13.29c
|8.00c
|8.00c
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated statement of financial position
!
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|'''Non-current assets'''
|94
|
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|
|-
|-
|Administrative expenses
|Investment properties
|(12,311)
|1,362,192
|(24,809)
|2,100,004
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|Plant and equipment
|2,463
|2,682
|2,597
|5,492
|-
|-
|Operating profit
|Intangible assets
|87,769
|6,568
|82,609
|4,283
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Right of use assets
|1,596
|1,919
|1,129
|14,996
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|Other non-current financial assets
|(11,347)
|44,960
|(9,249)
|48,330
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Investment in associates
|160
|17,202
|1,244
|24,142
|-
|-
|Net finance costs
|'''Total non-current assets'''
|(9,591)
|'''1,435,523'''
|(6,876)
|'''2,197,247'''
|-
|-
|Profit before tax
|'''Current assets'''
|78,178
|75,733
|-
|Taxation
|(10,386)
|(5,673)
|-
|Profit for the period after tax
|67,792
|70,060
|-
|Profit attributable to:
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Owners of the Company
|Trade and other receivables
|67,738
|18,731
|70,008
|24,571
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Derivative financial instruments
|54
|70
|52
|329
|-
|-
|
|Cash and cash equivalents
|67,792
|65,674
|70,060
|150,966
|-
|-
|Earnings per share
|'''Total current assets'''
|
|'''84,475'''
|
|'''175,866'''
|-
|-
|Basic earnings per share
|Assets held for sale
|6.44c
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|6.00c
|13,750
|-
|-
|Diluted earnings per share
|'''Total assets'''
|6.33c
|'''1,519,998'''
|5.92c
|'''2,386,863'''
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
!
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|-
|-
|Non-current assets
|'''Current liabilities'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Investment properties
|Trade and other payables
|2,100,004
|(50,527)
|2,105,046
|(89,335)
|-
|-
|Plant and equipment
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|5,492
|(9,114)
|7,199
|(19,630)
|-
|-
|Intangible assets
|Lease liabilities
|4,283
|(5,857)
|4,129
|(1,090)
|-
|-
|Right of use assets
|Current tax liabilities
|14,996
|(2,063)
|15,259
|(10,423)
|-
|-
|Other non-current financial assets
|Derivative financial instruments
|48,330
|(414)
|48,409
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Investment in associates
|'''Total current liabilities'''
|24,142
|'''(67,975)'''
|26,739
|'''(120,478)'''
|-
|-
|Total non-current assets
|'''Non-current liabilities'''
|2,197,247
|2,206,781
|-
|Current assets
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Trade and other receivables
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|24,571
|(458,940)
|24,420
|(961,863)
|-
|Lease liabilities
|(9,130)
|(37,571)
|-
|-
|Derivative financial instruments
|Derivative financial instruments
|329
|(797)
|1,573
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents
|Deferred tax liabilities
|150,966
|(56,331)
|162,098
|(75,893)
|-
|-
|Total current assets
|'''Total non-current liabilities'''
|175,866
|'''(525,198)'''
|188,091
|'''(1,075,327)'''
|-
|-
|Assets held for sale
|'''Total liabilities'''
|13,750
|'''(593,173)'''
|1,000
|'''(1,195,805)'''
|-
|-
|Total assets
|'''Net assets'''
|2,386,863
|'''926,825'''
|2,395,872
|'''1,191,058'''
|-
|-
|Current liabilities
|'''Equity'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Trade and other payables
|Issued share capital
|(89,335)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(76,993)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Other distributable reserve
|(19,630)
|449,051
|(37,243)
|570,369
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Own shares held
|(1,090)
|(2,903)
|(1,458)
|(6,274)
|-
|-
|Current tax liabilities
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|(10,423)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(4,978)
|(1,701)
|-
|-
|Total current liabilities
|Retained earnings
|(120,478)
|480,385
|(120,672)
|628,258
|-
|-
|Non-current liabilities
|'''Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company'''
|'''926,533'''
|'''1,190,652'''
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|292
|406
|-
|'''Total equity'''
|'''926,825'''
|'''1,191,058'''
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Consolidated statement of cash flows
!
!Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000)
!Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
|-
|'''Operating activities'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Interest-bearing loans and borrowings
|Profit for the year after tax
|(961,863)
|147,560
|(943,176)
|147,992
|-
|-
|Lease liabilities
|Taxation
|(37,571)
|16,097
|(37,233)
|20,935
|-
|-
|Deferred tax liabilities
|Profit for the year before tax
|(75,893)
|163,657
|(81,220)
|168,927
|-
|-
|Total non-current liabilities
|Loss/(gain) on disposal of properties
|(1,075,327)
|(54)
|(1,061,629)
|623
|-
|-
|Total liabilities
|Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries
|(1,195,805)
|(65)
|(1,182,301)
|(94)
|-
|-
|Net assets
|Net exchange differences
|1,191,058
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|1,213,571
|(1,975)
|-
|-
|Equity
|Share-based payments
|
|3,148
|
|4,173
|-
|-
|Issued share capital
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(99,585)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(140,884)
|-
|-
|Other distributable reserve
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|570,369
|(136)
|544,419
|(996)
|-
|Own shares held
|(6,274)
|(8,329)
|-
|-
|Foreign currency translation reserve
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|(1,701)
|669
|(21,243)
|1,167
|-
|-
|Retained earnings
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|628,258
|897
|698,266
|1,164
|-
|-
|Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|1,190,652
|521
|1,213,113
|843
|-
|-
|Non-controlling interest
|Goodwill impairment
|406
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|458
|40,906
|-
|-
|Total equity
|Share of profit of associates
|1,191,058
|(4,977)
|1,213,571
|(6,940)
|}
|-
{| class="wikitable"
|Finance income
|+Condensed consolidated statement of cash flow
|(2,712)
!
|(2,986)
!Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000)
|-
!Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
|Finance expense
|9,869
|23,219
|-
|-
|'''Operating activities'''
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Profit for the period after tax
|Increase in trade and other receivables
|67,792
|(2,518)
|70,060
|(5,196)
|-
|-
|Taxation
|Increase in trade and other payables
|10,386
|2,913
|5,673
|3,470
|-
|-
|Profit for the period before tax
|Taxation paid
|78,178
|(632)
|75,733
|(3,671)
|-
|-
|(Gain)/loss on disposal of properties
|'''Cash flows from operating activities'''
|400
|'''70,995'''
|(4,801)
|'''81,750'''
|-
|-
|Net exchange differences
|'''Investing activities'''
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|
|(309)
|
|-
|-
|Share-based payments
|Purchase of investment properties
|1,403
|(35,484)
|1,947
|(162,844)
|-
|-
|Gain on revaluation of investment properties
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|(48,414)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(26,812)
|(1,860)
|-
|-
|Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments
|Proceeds from loss on control of subsidiaries (net of cash disposed)
|(160)
|65
|(1,244)
|94
|-
|-
|Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|349
|(31,104)
|1,027
|(23,786)
|-
|-
|Amortisation of intangible assets
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|564
|(2,718)
|629
|(3,540)
|-
|-
|Depreciation of right of use assets
|Acquisition of a subsidiary (net of cash acquired)
|260
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|1,141
|(254,730)
|-
|-
|Share of profit of associates
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|(2,463)
|30
|(2,597)
|15,297
|-
|-
|Finance income
|Increase in loans receivable due from associates
|(1,596)
|(5,950)
|(1,129)
|(1,124)
|-
|-
|Finance expense
|Interest received
|11,347
|1,627
|9,249
|2,986
|-
|-
|'''Changes in working capital'''
|'''Cash flows used in investing activities'''
|'''(73,534)'''
|'''(429,507)'''
|-
|'''Financing activities'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Decrease/(increase) in trade and other receivables
|Proceeds from issue of share capital
|(2,598)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|3,786
|159,926
|-
|-
|Decrease in trade and other payables
|Transaction costs on issue of shares
|(2,053)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|(5,848)
|(6,219)
|-
|-
|Taxation paid
|Shares purchased
|(256)
|(1,613)
|(2,717)
|(5,545)
|-
|-
|Cash flows from operating activities
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|34,961
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|48,055
|(3,519)
|-
|-
|Investing activities
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|
|(24,248)
|
|(30,815)
|-
|-
|Purchase of investment properties
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|(20,221)
|(63)
|(832)
|(5)
|-
|-
|Prepayments relating to new acquisitions
|Proceeds from loans
|(75,771)
|20,000
|(3,639)
|750,000
|-
|-
|Capital expenditure on investment properties
|Repayment of loans
|(10,494)
|(33,753)
|(11,904)
|(399,431)
|-
|-
|Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|(1,461)
|(5,681)
|(3,210)
|(5,871)
|-
|-
|Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale)
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|18,593
|(5,335)
|-
|-
|Increase in loan receivable due from associates
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|(1,124)
|(134)
|(74)
|(14,369)
|-
|-
|Interest received
|Finance charges paid
|1,596
|(7,558)
|1,129
|(7,067)
|-
|-
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) investing activities'''
|'''Cash flows from/(used in) financing activities'''
|'''(107,475)'''
|'''(53,050)'''
|'''63'''
|'''431,750'''
|-
|-
|'''Financing activities'''
|'''Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents'''
|
|'''(55,589)'''
|  
|'''83,993'''
|-
|-
|Shares purchased
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|'''-'''
|(2,389)
|'''1,299'''
|-
|-
|Payment relating to exercise of share options
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the year
|(2,020)
|121,263
|(1,686)
|65,674
|-
|-
|Dividends paid to owners of the Company
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the year end'''
|(11,381)
|'''65,674'''
|(26,211)
|'''150,966'''
|-
|Dividends paid to non-controlling interest
|(5)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|Proceeds from loans
|400,000
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|Repayment of loans
|(173,791)
|(2,699)
|-
|Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities
|(2,931)
|(775)
|-
|Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties
|(3,697)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|Capitalised loan issue cost
|(7,559)
|<nowiki>-</nowiki>
|-
|Finance charges paid
|(4,170)
|(2,747)
|-
|'''Cash flows (used in)/from financing activities'''
|'''194,446'''
|'''(36,507)'''
|-
|'''Increase in cash and cash equivalents'''
|'''121,932'''
|'''11,611'''
|-
|'''Net exchange difference'''
|'''-'''
|'''(479)'''
|-
|Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the period
|65,674
|150,966
|-
|'''Cash and cash equivalents as at the period end'''
|'''187,606'''
|'''162,098'''
|}
|}


== References and notes ==
== References and notes ==

Latest revision as of 17:26, 11 December 2022

SummaryEdit

  • Sirius Real Estate, the FTSE 250 real estate investment company, has made eight material announcements since our last report on the company (on 12th April 2022).
  • For us, the key highlight of the announcements is that the company has performed exceptionally well in the six months ended 30th September 2022, growing funds from operations (FFO) by 47% over the period.
  • Accordingly, we have updated our forecasts, and estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate over the next 12-months is 57%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £157,000 in 12-months time.
  • We note that the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low', with the company's shares having an adjusted beta[1] that is 1.6% above the market (1.016 vs. 1).
  • All-in-all, assuming that a suitable return level in the next 12 months is 10% or more, then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
Summary financials
31 March 2021 (€000) 31 March 2022 (€000) 31 March 2023 (€000) 31 March 2024 (€000)
Portfolio value (€'billion) 1.36 2.08 2.12 2.15
FFO (€'million) 60.9 74.6 97.0 100.0
FFO/share (€'cents) 5.84 6.78 8.25 8.50
Dividend/share (€'cents) 3.8 4.41 5.4 5.6
Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents) 93.8 108.5 109.5 114.5

Half-Year ResultsEdit

On 21st November 2022, the company announced its interim results for the period ended 30th September 2022.

During the six month period, revenue increased by 47.7% to €130.6 million (H1 FY2022: €88.4 million), mainly driven by higher rental and service charge. In Germany, like-for-like annualised rent roll improved by 2.4% to €115.2 million (H1 FY2022: €112.5 million), and in the United Kingdom, by 4.1% to €46.5 million (H1 FY2022: €44.7 million). Profit before tax decreased by 3% to €75.7 million (H1 FY2022: €78.2 million).

Net current assets increased by 22% to €67 million (H2 FY2022: €55 million), net asset value improved by 1.8% to €1,213 million (H2 FY2022: €1,191 million). Cash stood at €162 million (H2 FY2022: €151 million) and debt at €993 million (H2 FY2022: €996 million). The value of the company's investment property increased by 0.3% to €2,081.4 million (H2 FY2022: €2,074.9 million).

Cash flows from operating activities increased by 37.5% to €48.1 million (H1 FY2022: €35.0 million), and mainly due to the disposal of properties, cash flows from investing activities was negligible (H1 FY2022: negative €107.5 million). The company's German and UK portfolios saw a respective increase of €20.3 million and £6.3 million, representing a 1.8% and 2.1% like-for-like valuation growth. With no new loans taken during the period. cash flows from financing activities swung to negative €36.5 million (H1 FY2022: positive €194 million). The total dividend per share for the period increased by 32.4% to 2.79 cents (H1 FY2022: 2.04 cents).

Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 47.0% to €48.5 million (H2 FY2022: €33.0 million).

The company said it continues to expect to trade in-line with consensus and management expectations for the full year.

Given the rising interest rates and the uncertainty that this and the many other factors affecting the German and UK property markets are causing at the moment, the company has prioritised improving its debt ratios and building up its cash reserves. Net LTV, which reduces the loan balance by free cash (excluding restricted cash balances) in its calculation, was 41.0% (FY2022: 41.6%) whilst interest cover at EBITDA level was 8.1x as at 30th September 2022 (FY2022: 7.3x). The group added that it's fully committed to continue reducing its net LTV to be well within 40% or below in the near term.

Consolidated Income Statement
Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000) Movement (%)
Rental Income 79.2 49.6 +60%
Titanium income 3.5 3.4
Service charge irrecoverable costs (3.7) (1.7)
Non-recoverable maintenance (2.5) (1.7)
Net Operating Income 76.5 49.6 +54%
Corporate costs and overheads (20.8) (10.4)
Adjusted EBITDA 55.7 39.2 +42%
Bank interest (6.9) (4.5)
Current tax (excluding tax on disposals) (0.3) (1.7)
FFO 48.5 33.0 +47%
Depreciation & amortisation of financing fees (3.3) (1.9)
Add back current taxes (excluding tax on disposals) 0.3 1.7
IFRS 16 & foreign exchange effects (1.9) (0.5)
Adjusted Profit Before Tax 43.6 32.3 +35%
Adjusting items (3.0)[2] (7.0)
Surplus/Deficit on revaluation of investment properties 27.7 51.5
Goodwill impairment - -
Gain/Loss on disposal of investment properties 4.8 (0.3)
Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments 1.2 0.2
Share of profit in associate not included in FFO 1.4 1.5
Profit Before Tax 75.7 78.2 (3)%
Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000) Movement (%)
Assets
Investment properties (owned assets) 2,082.4 1,428.5 46%
Investment properties (leased assets) 23.6 16.3 45%
Investment in associate 71.1 63.9 11%
Plant and equipment 11.3 9.8[3] 15%
Trade and other receivables 45.0[4] 100.6 55)%
Derivative financial instruments 1.6 0 -
Cash and cash equivalents 162.1 187.6 (14)%
Total Assets 2,397.1 1,806.7 33%
Liabilities
Trade and other payables (77.0) (49.2) 57%
Interest bearing bank loans (980.4) (689.2) 42%
Lease liabilities (38.7)[5] (16.4) 136%
Current & Deferred tax liabilities (86.2) (68.5) 26%
Derivative financial instruments - (0.5) (100)%
Total Liabilities (1,182.3) (823.8) 44%
Net Assets 1,214.8 982.9 24%
NAV per share 103.90c 92.62c 12%
Adjusted NAV per share 110.72c 98.80c 12%
EPRA NTA per share 109.47c 97.02c 13%

Reaffirmed Investment RatingEdit

On the 7th November 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that the rating agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed the company's BBB investment grade rating with 'Stable Outlook' (Long-Term Issuer Default Rating).

In its rating, Fitch noted that it expects Sirius's income to remain stable, due to an active focus on occupancy and low affordable rents for the company's out-of-town locations. It also highlighted the benefits of the Sirius operating platform and the resilience of its core, high-yielding portfolio. Fitch anticipates that total average portfolio occupancy levels will remain above 80%.

Early refinancing of next major debt expiryEdit

On 6th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed the early refinancing of the the company's next major debt expiry, a €170 million facility with Berlin Hyp AG, approximately one year in advance of the facility's due date.

The refinancing comprises a new 7-year, €170 million facility at a fixed interest rate of 4.26%, which will replace and redeem the existing facility upon its expiry on 31 October 2023.

As of 30 September 2022, the group had a total of €993 million of outstanding debt, €750 million of which is unsecured. The remaining €243 million comprised mortgage-backed debt, of which the most significant tranche is the newly refinanced €170 million Berlin Hyp AG facility referred to above.

This refinancing facility extends the group's total weighted average debt expiry from 3.8 years to 5.0 years. When the new facility commences just over a year from now, the group's weighted average cost of debt will increase from 1.4% to 1.9%.

The company has €1.6 billion of unencumbered assets and in excess of €138 million of free cash available. Within the next 12 months, Sirius has a total of €35 million of debt expiring, which it is confident of either extending terms with the existing lenders, replacing with new lenders or paying down.

Acquisitions and disposals updateEdit

On 4th October 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that it has completed three acquisitions in Germany, for €44.6 million.

These acquisitions were all notarised prior to the end of June and have been predominantly funded using capital recycled from three strategic disposals in Germany and the UK for a combined €33.6 million.

The disposals have been made at a premium to book value.

The three disposals were of assets that offered limited further growth opportunities due to location and/or condition, and comprised:

The notarisation of a €1.0 million 3,200 sqm non-income producing land plot in Heiligenhaus, Germany which had a book value of €250,000 at the time of notarisation. This asset is being sold to a supermarket chain as part of its expansion plans, with the transaction expected to complete in January 2023.

The three new acquisitions totalling €44.6 million currently generate a combined total of €2.3 million of rental income and €1.6 million of net operating profit annually. The three acquired assets have a combined occupancy of just 54% and offer a range of avenues for Sirius to leverage its significant value creation expertise to grow rental income. The acquired assets comprise:

  1. A €39.8 million (including costs) mixed-use property in Düsseldorf, Germany, situated 2.6 km from the city's international airport. The property comprises mainly office and warehouse/light industrial space and is 55% occupied, offering good value add potential.
  2. A €3.9 million (including costs) primarily warehouse asset located in a well-developed commercial area in Dreieich, Germany, that is strategically adjacent to an existing property owned by Sirius.  We intend to convert the property into a self-storage facility, adding to our existing SmartSpace Self-Storage brand that now exists in 32 locations across Germany.
  3. A €0.9 million (including costs) small 239 sqm vacant office building in Potsdam. The property is placed strategically at the entrance to one of the Company's existing sites and directly adjacent to the world famous Babelsberg Film Studios.

The company said that it has identified a number of asset management initiatives within the three newly acquired properties which will allow it to grow rental income and occupancy by leasing into markets where it sees continued strong demand for its products.

The company added that it expects to slow its acquisition pipeline, and that it will also continue to seek to dispose of non-core or mature assets as and when it feels the timing is right.

Change of Chief Financial OfficerEdit

On the 16th August 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced that for personal reasons, Diarmuid Kelly has decided to step down as the company's Chief Financial Officer.

Alistair Marks, the Chief Investment Officer and former CFO of the company, has stepped in as the interim CFO. The company has begun the search for a new CFO.

Sale of Bizspace CamberwellEdit

On 16th May 2022, Sirius Real Estate announced the sale of a business park asset for £16 million, representing a 94% premium to the valuation that the asset was initially acquired by the company in November 2021 (i.e. in less than eight months). The proceeds will be used to invest in higher yielding UK opportunities.

Key features of the asset include:

  • It's located in Camberwell, London.
  • It's multi-tenanted.
  • It comprises approx. 34,700 sq. ft. of industrial and office space, and is 91% occupied.
  • The sale price represents a net initial yield (NIY), which is the current annualised rent, net of costs, expressed as a percentage of capital value, after adding notional purchaser's costs, of around 2.0%.

Board changesEdit

On 13th June 2022, the company announced two board changes.

Caroline Britton was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the Senior Independent Director. Caroline has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since June 2020 and chairs the Audit Committee and is a member of the Nomination Committee of the Board.

Joanne Kenrick was appointed to succeed James Peggie as the chair of the Remuneration Committee. Joanne has been a non-executive Director of Sirius since September 2021 and is a member of the Nomination and Sustainability and Ethics Committees of the Board.

James Peggie will continue as a non-executive Director and a member of the Audit, Nomination and Remuneration Committees of the Board.

Final resultsEdit

On 13th June 2022, the company announced its full year results for the year ended 31st March 2022.

During the 12-month period, revenue increased by 27% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million), and the gain on revaluation of investment properties jumped by 41% to €210 million (FY2021: €165 million); however, mainly due to an impairment charge, higher administrative expenses and interest expenses, the net profit remained more-or-less unchanged at €147 million (FY 2021: €147 million).

In terms of the financial position of the company, the net current assets increased by more than 3x to €55 million (FY 2021: €17 million), and the net asset value (NAV) rose by by 28% to €1.19 billion (FY 2021: €0.93 billion).

Cash flows from operating activities increased by 15% to €82 million (FY2021: €71 million), and mainly due to the acquisition of a subsidiary and purchase of investment properties, cash flows used in investing activities increased by almost 6x to €430 million (FY2021: €74 million). Cash flows from financing activities swung to €431 million (FY2021: negative €54 million), driven by the proceeds of loans and the issue of share capital. The total dividend per share for the year increased by 16% to 4.41 cents (FY2021: 3.80%).

Funds From Operations (FFO) increased by 22.5% to €74.6 million (FY2021: €60.9 million).

How do the results compare to our forecasts?
Forecast Actual Difference (%)
Portfolio value (€'billion) 2.00 2.08 4.00%
FFO (€'million) 72.0 74.6 3.61%
FFO/share (€'cents) 6.58 6.78 3.04%
Dividend/share (€'cents) 4.25 4.41 3.76%
Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents) 104.4 108.5 3.93%

FinancialsEdit

How have our forecasts changed?
31 March 2023 31 March 2024
Old New Change (%) Old New Change (%)
Portfolio value (€'billion) 2.12 2.12 0.00% 2.21 2.15 (2.71%)
FFO (€'million) 90.1 97.0 7.66% 95.1 100.0 5.15%
FFO/share (€'cents) 7.75 8.25 6.45% 8.16 8.50 4.17%
Dividend/share (€'cents) 5.0 5.4 8.00% 5.3 5.6 5.66%
Adjusted NAV/share (€'cents) 110.9 109.5 (1.26%) 118.0 114.5 (2.97%)

RisksEdit

As with any investment, investing in Sirius carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the company's market beta (i.e. 1.016), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Sirius is relatively 'low'. Here, to estimate the adjusted beta[1], we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice.

For us, currently, the biggest risk to the valuation of the company relates to macro-economic factors, in particular unexpected and sudden changes in inflation and interest rates movements, ultimately resulting in a reduction in the affordability and, therefore, demand of the company's assets/properties. With that said, the company has a diverse tenant base, with its top 50 tenants generating 45% of annual income in Germany, and 26% of annual income generated by the top 100 tenants in the UK. Sirius also has no material dependencies on specific industries, and a track record of buying and building high-returning investment opportunities.

ValuationEdit

Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or less, the approach that is more accurate is the relative valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.

What's the expected return of an investment in Sirius using the relative valuation approach?Edit

Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Sirius Real Estate Limited over the next 12-months is 57%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £157,000 within 12-months from now. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level in the 12 months is 10% and Sirius Real Estate Limited achieves its expected return level (of 197%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?Edit

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Which type of multiple do you want to use? P/FFO The FFO does not account for depreciation in properties but rather adds back the depreciation value back to the net income. Furthmore, FFO deducts any gains or losses from the sale of assets, since including the transaction would result in discrepancies in the revenues reported in each period. Accordingly, we suggest valuing the company using the Price to Funds From Operations (P/FFO) ratio.
In regards to the P/FFO multiple, for the FFO figure, which year to you want to use? Twelve months ahead Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the FFO figure, we suggest using the twelve months ahead.
In regards to the P/FFO multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use? 18x According to Bloomberg, Sirius Real Estate Limited closest peers trade on a multiple of 18x.
Which financial forecasts to use? Proactive Investors Here, we have used the forecasts of Proactive Investors.
What's the current value of the company? £981.20 million As at 22nd November 2022, the current value of Sirius Real Estate Limited is £981.20 million.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? Between now and one year time Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.

Sensitive analysisEdit

The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

  1. The P/FFO multiple (the default multiple is 18x); and
  2. The twelve months ahead FFO forecast (the default forecast is €98.78 million).

The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Sirius Real Estate Limited investment is shown in the table below.

Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis
Main input 10% worse Unchanged 10% better
The P/FFO multiple 43% 57% 73%
The twelve months ahead FFO forecast 43% 57% 73%

AppendixEdit

Peers
Company name Bloomberg ticker Primary exchange Classification Industry Market capitalisation (GBP) BF P/FFO Yield (%) Interest cover (x) Total debt/total capital
Sirius Real Estate Ltd SRE LN United Kingdom Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 979,494,700 11.5111 4.08% 5.42 46.14%
FastPartner AB FPARA SS Sweden Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 1,170,459,785 -- 2.93% 4.50 48.51%
Cibus Nordic Real Estate AB CIBUS SS Sweden Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 57,4491,440 -- 6.78% 3.47 61.04%
Shaftesbury PLC SHB LN United Kingdom Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 1,385,308,138 33.7009 2.48% 1.99 27.95%
Intershop Holding AG ISN SW Switzerland Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 1,011,223,384 -- 4.08% (10.25) 34.63%
WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbes WCMK GR Germany Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 497,815,111 -- 2.86% 6.18 2.77%
Metrovacesa SA MVC SM Spain Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 874,166,035 25.1504 30.90% N/A 15.84%
Brack Capital Properties NV BCNV IT Italy Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 601,880,806 -- -- (11.66) 42.48%
TLG Immobilien AG TLG GR Germany Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 1,949,040,400 23.0976 4.70% 4.89 15.32%
GAG Immobilien AG GWK3 GR Germany Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 1,097,732,888 -- 0.65% 3.87 71.78%
Gateway Real Estate AG GTY GR Germany Multi Asset Class Own & Develop Real Estate Owners & Developers 498,775,280 -- -- 0.25 63.50%
Condensed consolidated income statement
Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000) Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
Revenue 88,352 130,558
Direct costs (38,843) (57,350)
Net operating income 49,509 73,208
Gain on revaluation of investment properties 48,414 26,812
Gain/(loss) on disposal of properties (400) 4,801
Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries 94 -
Administrative expenses (12,311) (24,809)
Share of profit of associates 2,463 2,597
Operating profit 87,769 82,609
Finance income 1,596 1,129
Finance expense (11,347) (9,249)
Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments 160 1,244
Net finance costs (9,591) (6,876)
Profit before tax 78,178 75,733
Taxation (10,386) (5,673)
Profit for the period after tax 67,792 70,060
Profit attributable to:
Owners of the Company 67,738 70,008
Non-controlling interest 54 52
67,792 70,060
Earnings per share
Basic earnings per share 6.44c 6.00c
Diluted earnings per share 6.33c 5.92c
Condensed consolidated statement of financial position
Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000) Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
Non-current assets
Investment properties 2,100,004 2,105,046
Plant and equipment 5,492 7,199
Intangible assets 4,283 4,129
Right of use assets 14,996 15,259
Other non-current financial assets 48,330 48,409
Investment in associates 24,142 26,739
Total non-current assets 2,197,247 2,206,781
Current assets
Trade and other receivables 24,571 24,420
Derivative financial instruments 329 1,573
Cash and cash equivalents 150,966 162,098
Total current assets 175,866 188,091
Assets held for sale 13,750 1,000
Total assets 2,386,863 2,395,872
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables (89,335) (76,993)
Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (19,630) (37,243)
Lease liabilities (1,090) (1,458)
Current tax liabilities (10,423) (4,978)
Total current liabilities (120,478) (120,672)
Non-current liabilities
Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (961,863) (943,176)
Lease liabilities (37,571) (37,233)
Deferred tax liabilities (75,893) (81,220)
Total non-current liabilities (1,075,327) (1,061,629)
Total liabilities (1,195,805) (1,182,301)
Net assets 1,191,058 1,213,571
Equity
Issued share capital - -
Other distributable reserve 570,369 544,419
Own shares held (6,274) (8,329)
Foreign currency translation reserve (1,701) (21,243)
Retained earnings 628,258 698,266
Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company 1,190,652 1,213,113
Non-controlling interest 406 458
Total equity 1,191,058 1,213,571
Condensed consolidated statement of cash flow
Six months ended 30 September 2021 (€000) Six months ended 30 September 2022 (€000)
Operating activities
Profit for the period after tax 67,792 70,060
Taxation 10,386 5,673
Profit for the period before tax 78,178 75,733
(Gain)/loss on disposal of properties 400 (4,801)
Net exchange differences - (309)
Share-based payments 1,403 1,947
Gain on revaluation of investment properties (48,414) (26,812)
Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments (160) (1,244)
Depreciation of property, plant and equipment 349 1,027
Amortisation of intangible assets 564 629
Depreciation of right of use assets 260 1,141
Share of profit of associates (2,463) (2,597)
Finance income (1,596) (1,129)
Finance expense 11,347 9,249
Changes in working capital
Decrease/(increase) in trade and other receivables (2,598) 3,786
Decrease in trade and other payables (2,053) (5,848)
Taxation paid (256) (2,717)
Cash flows from operating activities 34,961 48,055
Investing activities
Purchase of investment properties (20,221) (832)
Prepayments relating to new acquisitions (75,771) (3,639)
Capital expenditure on investment properties (10,494) (11,904)
Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets (1,461) (3,210)
Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale) - 18,593
Increase in loan receivable due from associates (1,124) (74)
Interest received 1,596 1,129
Cash flows from/(used in) investing activities (107,475) 63
Financing activities
Shares purchased - (2,389)
Payment relating to exercise of share options (2,020) (1,686)
Dividends paid to owners of the Company (11,381) (26,211)
Dividends paid to non-controlling interest (5) -
Proceeds from loans 400,000 -
Repayment of loans (173,791) (2,699)
Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities (2,931) (775)
Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties (3,697) -
Capitalised loan issue cost (7,559) -
Finance charges paid (4,170) (2,747)
Cash flows (used in)/from financing activities 194,446 (36,507)
Increase in cash and cash equivalents 121,932 11,611
Net exchange difference - (479)
Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the period 65,674 150,966
Cash and cash equivalents as at the period end 187,606 162,098


Consolidated income statement
Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2023 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2024 (€000)
Revenue 165,361 210,182 154,500 159,000
Direct costs (71,541) (87,689)
Net operating income 93,820 122,493
Gain on revaluation of investment properties 99,585 140,884
(Loss)/gain on disposal of properties 54 (623)
Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries 65 94
Administrative expenses (27,823) (40,718)
Goodwill impairment - (40,906)
Share of profit of associates 4,977 6,940
Operating profit 170,678 188,164
Finance income 2,712 2,986
Finance expense (9,869) (23,219)
Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments 136 996
Net finance costs (7,021) (19,237)
Profit before tax 163,657 168,927 91,570 95,770
Taxation (16,097) (20,935)
Profit for the year after tax 147,560 147,992 95,500 97,950
Profit attributable to:
Owners of the Company 147,451 147,873 95,500 97,950
Non-controlling interest 109 119
147,560 147,992
Earnings per share
Basic earnings per share 14.16c 13.48c 8.00c 8.00c
Diluted earnings per share 13.96c 13.29c 8.00c 8.00c
Consolidated statement of financial position
Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
Non-current assets
Investment properties 1,362,192 2,100,004
Plant and equipment 2,682 5,492
Intangible assets 6,568 4,283
Right of use assets 1,919 14,996
Other non-current financial assets 44,960 48,330
Investment in associates 17,202 24,142
Total non-current assets 1,435,523 2,197,247
Current assets
Trade and other receivables 18,731 24,571
Derivative financial instruments 70 329
Cash and cash equivalents 65,674 150,966
Total current assets 84,475 175,866
Assets held for sale - 13,750
Total assets 1,519,998 2,386,863
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables (50,527) (89,335)
Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (9,114) (19,630)
Lease liabilities (5,857) (1,090)
Current tax liabilities (2,063) (10,423)
Derivative financial instruments (414) -
Total current liabilities (67,975) (120,478)
Non-current liabilities
Interest-bearing loans and borrowings (458,940) (961,863)
Lease liabilities (9,130) (37,571)
Derivative financial instruments (797) -
Deferred tax liabilities (56,331) (75,893)
Total non-current liabilities (525,198) (1,075,327)
Total liabilities (593,173) (1,195,805)
Net assets 926,825 1,191,058
Equity
Issued share capital - -
Other distributable reserve 449,051 570,369
Own shares held (2,903) (6,274)
Foreign currency translation reserve - (1,701)
Retained earnings 480,385 628,258
Total equity attributable to the owners of the Company 926,533 1,190,652
Non-controlling interest 292 406
Total equity 926,825 1,191,058
Consolidated statement of cash flows
Year ended 31 March 2021 (€000) Year ended 31 March 2022 (€000)
Operating activities
Profit for the year after tax 147,560 147,992
Taxation 16,097 20,935
Profit for the year before tax 163,657 168,927
Loss/(gain) on disposal of properties (54) 623
Recoveries from prior disposals of subsidiaries (65) (94)
Net exchange differences - (1,975)
Share-based payments 3,148 4,173
Gain on revaluation of investment properties (99,585) (140,884)
Change in fair value of derivative financial instruments (136) (996)
Depreciation of property, plant and equipment 669 1,167
Amortisation of intangible assets 897 1,164
Depreciation of right of use assets 521 843
Goodwill impairment - 40,906
Share of profit of associates (4,977) (6,940)
Finance income (2,712) (2,986)
Finance expense 9,869 23,219
Changes in working capital
Increase in trade and other receivables (2,518) (5,196)
Increase in trade and other payables 2,913 3,470
Taxation paid (632) (3,671)
Cash flows from operating activities 70,995 81,750
Investing activities
Purchase of investment properties (35,484) (162,844)
Prepayments relating to new acquisitions - (1,860)
Proceeds from loss on control of subsidiaries (net of cash disposed) 65 94
Capital expenditure on investment properties (31,104) (23,786)
Purchase of plant and equipment and intangible assets (2,718) (3,540)
Acquisition of a subsidiary (net of cash acquired) - (254,730)
Proceeds on disposal of properties (including held for sale) 30 15,297
Increase in loans receivable due from associates (5,950) (1,124)
Interest received 1,627 2,986
Cash flows used in investing activities (73,534) (429,507)
Financing activities
Proceeds from issue of share capital - 159,926
Transaction costs on issue of shares - (6,219)
Shares purchased (1,613) (5,545)
Payment relating to exercise of share options - (3,519)
Dividends paid to owners of the Company (24,248) (30,815)
Dividends paid to non-controlling interest (63) (5)
Proceeds from loans 20,000 750,000
Repayment of loans (33,753) (399,431)
Payment of principal portion of lease liabilities (5,681) (5,871)
Exit fees/prepayment of financing penalties - (5,335)
Capitalised loan issue cost (134) (14,369)
Finance charges paid (7,558) (7,067)
Cash flows from/(used in) financing activities (53,050) 431,750
Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (55,589) 83,993
Net exchange difference - 1,299
Cash and cash equivalents as at the beginning of the year 121,263 65,674
Cash and cash equivalents as at the year end 65,674 150,966

References and notesEdit

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Sirius's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 1.06, and is, accordingly, 6% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'low' level of riskiness is 10% or less above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in the company is considered to be relatively 'low' (1.6%<10%). For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. In terms of the benchmark, we suggest using the iShares MSCI World ETF. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.
  2. ↑ Adjusting items include costs relating to share awards, costs relating to the repayment of secured debt and acquisition costs relating to the acquisition of BizSpace.
  3. ↑ Includes €3.7m Goodwill.
  4. ↑ Includes €15m Right of use assets.
  5. ↑ Includes €16.7m Lease Liability for Right of use assets.
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