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* Listed on the London Stock Exchange in the United Kingdom, Supply@ME Capital plc is a company that's on a mission to help businesses maximise their profits, in particular raise funds more efficiently.
* Headquartered in the United Kingdom, Supply@ME Capital plc is a company that's on a mission to help businesses maximise their profits.
* The flagship offering of the company is a web application that enables companies that are inventory-intensive<ref>Here, inventory refers to the goods and materials that a business holds for the ultimate goal of resale, production or utilisation.</ref> and willing and able to take higher levels of risk (for higher levels of return), such as early-stage manufacturing companies, to raise funds. What makes the finance platform unique is that it raises the funds by selling [and then at a later stage (e.g. 90 days), buying-back, at a higher price (than the sold price)] the inventory of the businesses, using a type of financial agreement called the true sale inventory agreement.<ref name=":8" /> Evidence suggests that the agreement enables early-stage inventory-intensive companies to raise funds more efficiently, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits<ref name=":3">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119914001606</ref>.
* The flagship offering of the company is a web application that enables companies that are inventory-intensive<ref>Here, inventory refers to the goods and materials that a business holds for the ultimate goal of resale, production or utilisation.</ref> and willing and able to take higher levels of risk (for higher levels of return), such as early-stage manufacturing companies, to raise funds. What makes the finance platform unique is that it records the inventory finance transactions on a blockchain<ref name=":0">A digital file distributed to everyone participating in a cryptocurrency network. The blockchain acts as a kind of general ledger, keeping track of all the transactions that happen in the network. Everyone can look at the blockchain to see what transactions have happened on the network, and the blockchain is sealed using cryptography so that no one can tamper with it.</ref>. Evidence suggests that a blockchain-enabled inventory finance platform will result in inventory-intensive companies financing their inventory much more efficiently<ref name=":2">https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/wpiea2019165-print-pdf.ashx</ref><ref name=":4">https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/sg/Documents/finance-transformation/sea-ft-crunch-time-iv-blockchain.pdf</ref>, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits<ref name=":3">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119914001606</ref>.
* The expected return of an investment in Supply@ME Capital plc over the next five years is 411%, according to the estimates of Proactive Investors, which equates to an annual return of 33%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £511,000 in five years time. The main assumptions behind the estimate include: 1) a significant total addressable market size; 2) the uniqueness of the company's offering(s) and the experienced, founder-led team are able to capture a sizable amount of the market; and 3) a high discount rate, mainly given the stage of the business lifecycle that the company is in currently.
* The expected return of an investment in Supply@ME Capital plc over the next five years is 411%, according to the estimates of Proactive Investors, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £51,100 in five years time.
* The degree of risk associated with an investment in Supply@ME Capital plc is 'high', with the shares having an adjusted beta that is 561% above the market (4.61 vs. 1).
* The degree of risk associated with an investment in Supply@ME Capital plc is 'high', with the shares having an adjusted beta that is 714% above the market (6.14 vs. 1).
*Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
*Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.


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===What's the mission of the company? ===
===What's the mission of the company? ===
The mission of Supply@ME Capital plc is to help companies maximise/improve their profits.
The mission of Supply@ME Capital plc is to help companies maximise their profits, in particular raise funds more efficiently.


===What's the company's main offering(s)? ===
===What's the company's main offering(s)? ===
===Who’s the target audience of the company’s flagship/first product?===
The primary audience is companies that are 1) inventory-intensive (i.e. manufacturing companies) and 2) willing and able to take higher levels of risk [(for higher levels of return), such as early-stage companies] (i.e. early-stage inventory-intensive companies). Note, the secondary audience is inventory-intensive companies that follow the teachings of Islam (i.e. Islamic inventory-intensive companies).


==== Flagship offering/audience ====
=== What's a major problem that the target audience experience? ===
The problem is a lack of profits, more specifically a lack of financing.


=====Who’s the target audience of the company’s flagship/first product?=====
The Federation of Small Businesses, a lobby group for the UK’s smallest companies, said a survey of members found that successful applications for bank loans and other financing had dropped precipitously, with less than half of applications successful in the third quarter of 2022. The lobby group added that the smaller a business was, the less likely its request for a bank loan was to be approved.
The primary audience is companies that are 1) inventory-intensive (i.e. manufacturing companies) and 2) willing and able to take higher levels of risk [(for higher levels of return), such as early-stage companies (i.e. companies that are less than two years old)] (i.e. early-stage inventory-intensive companies).<ref>Typically, companies that are less than two years old find it particularly challenging to raise sufficient or any funds.


The finance cost of the Supply@Me Capital type of finance is the highest, and, therefore, we expect the finance form to be used by those who are unable to use the other forms (i.e. those that are less than two years old).</ref>  
===What's a key solution to the problem?===
The solution is Supply@ME, a web application that enables early-stage inventory-intensive businesses to raise funds. What makes the finance platform unique is that it raises the funds by selling [and then at a later stage (e.g. 90 days), buying-back, at a higher price (than the sold price)] the inventory of the businesses, using a type of financial agreement called the true sale inventory agreement.<ref name=":8" /> Evidence suggests that the true sale inventory agreement enables early-stage inventory-intensive companies to raise funds more efficiently and/or in a way that is less risky, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their risk-adjusted profits<ref name=":3" />.


===== What's a major problem that the target audience experience? =====
Note, with a true sale inventory agreement, the fundraising transaction is recorded off the balance sheet of the fundraising company (i.e. off-balance sheet transaction<ref>An off-balance sheet (OBS) transaction is a type of financial arrangement in which a company does not record certain assets or liabilities on its balance sheet. The main benefit of an OBS transaction is that it can help a company to manage its financial statements in a way that makes its financial position appear stronger than it would if the assets or liabilities were recorded on its balance sheet.
"The widespread belief ... is that the lack of finance constitutes the main obstacle to the growth of [small-and medium-sized enterprises]." European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.<ref>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883902698000275#FN1</ref>


As indicated in the above quote, a major problem that the target audience experience is a lack of profits, more specifically a lack of financing.
One of the primary benefits of OBS transactions is that they can help a company to manage its level of debt and leverage, by allowing it to keep certain liabilities off its balance sheet. This can make the company's debt-to-equity ratio appear lower, which can be attractive to investors and creditors.


Indeed, the Federation of Small Businesses, a lobby group for the UK’s smallest companies, said a survey of members founds that successful applications for bank loans and other financing had dropped precipitously, with less than half of applications successful in the third quarter of 2022. The lobby group added that the smaller a business was, the less likely its request for a bank loan was to be approved.
Another benefit of OBS transactions is that they can help a company to manage its level of risk. By keeping certain assets or liabilities off its balance sheet, a company can limit its exposure to certain types of risk. For example, if a company enters into an OBS transaction to finance a project, it can limit its exposure to the project's risks by not recording the project's assets and liabilities on its balance sheet.</ref>, more specifically off-balance sheet inventory repurchase agreement transaction).
 
=====What's a key solution to the problem?=====
The solution is Supply@ME, a web application that enables early-stage inventory-intensive businesses to raise funds. What makes the finance platform unique is that it raises the funds by selling [and then at a later stage (e.g. 90 days), buying-back, at a higher price (than the sold price)] the inventory of the businesses, using a type of financial agreement called the true sale inventory agreement.<ref name=":8" /> Evidence suggests that the true sale inventory agreement enables early-stage inventory-intensive companies to raise funds more efficiently, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits<ref name=":3" />.
 
Note, with a true sale inventory agreement, there is no legal obligation to return the finance, thereby reducing the financial risk of the fundraising company.
 
==== Secondary offering/audience ====
The secondary audience is inventory-intensive companies that follow the teachings of Islam (i.e. Islamic inventory-intensive companies).
 
Currently, inventory finance is treated as a loan, involving interest (payments). Interest is considered to be a sin in Islam (Quran 2:278-279), and, therefore, Muslims should avoid engaging in transactions that involve interest. Accordingly, the current form of inventory finance excludes 1.97 billion people (or 25% of the global population). Because the finance on the Supply@Me Finance platform is structured in a way in which the inventory is actually sold (i.e. it's not treated as a loan, and, therefore, there is no associated interest), the platform is allowed to be used by Muslims (i.e. Muslim-permissible inventory finance platform). Indeed, the Supply@ME platform has been approved as being compliant within the principles of Sharia, Islamic law, thereby making the platform one of the first shariah-compliant inventory finance platforms.


== Which are the main competitors of the product? ==
== Which are the main competitors of the product? ==
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!HSBC business loan
!HSBC business loan
|-
|-
|Is the product targeted toward early-stage, inventory-intensive companies?
|Is the product targeted toward inventory-intensive companies?
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
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| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
|-
|-
|Is the platform focused on providing financing (i.e. finance platform)?
|Is the core benefit of the product more/maximum business profits?
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
|-
|Is the platform focused on financing the supply chain of the companies (i.e. supply chain finance (SCF)<ref>Supply Chain Finance is defined as the use of financing and risk mitigation practices and techniques to optimize the management of the working capital and liquidity invested in supply chain processes and transactions.</ref> platform)?
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
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|Does the product provide financing related to inventory (i.e. inventory-related financing)?
|Does the product provide financing related to inventory (i.e. inventory-related financing)?
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
|-
|Does the product provide financing related to accounts receivables (i.e. receivables-related financing)?
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
|-
|Does the product provide financing related to accounts payables (i.e. payables-related financing)?
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
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| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes?
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
|-
|Does the platform record the finance transactions on a blockchain (i.e. Blockchain-enabled SCF platform)?
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
|-
|-
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| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No
|-
|Roughly, what proportion of global inventory is the platform able to finance (i.e. inventory finance coverage)?
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |N/A
|-
|-
|What is the average total price of financing inventory using the platform (i.e. inventory finance price)?
|What is the average total price of financing inventory using the platform (i.e. inventory finance price)?
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| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: red; color: white;" |High
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Medium
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Low
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Low
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=== Total Addressable Market ===
=== Total Addressable Market ===
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $965 billion.
Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $ccc billion<ref name=":1">https://www.pwc.co.uk/business-restructuring/pdf/working-capital-report.pdf</ref>.


It can be argued that the TAM of the company is the global working capital securitisation servicing market, and it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $385 billion.
It can be argued that the TAM of the company is the global working capital securitisation servicing market, and it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $385 billion.
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===Serviceable Available Market===
===Serviceable Available Market===


The serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global inventory finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $48 billion<ref name=":1">https://www.pwc.co.uk/business-restructuring/pdf/working-capital-report.pdf</ref>.
The serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global inventory finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $48 billion<ref name=":1" />.


===Serviceable Obtainable Market===
===Serviceable Obtainable Market===
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=== Product development ===
=== Product development ===
The price of the finance (i.e. the finance cost) is a key factor in the demand of the finance (and, therefore, the profitability of Supply@Me Capital). In other words, the lower the finance cost, the higher the finance demand, and vice versa. Consequently, we expect product development to be focused on just that (i.e. lowering the finance cost), as well as improving the accessibility of finance, in particular via the following main areas, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
The price of the finance (i.e. the finance cost) is a key factor in the demand of the finance (and, therefore, the profitability of Supply@Me Capital). In other words, the lower the finance cost, the higher the finance demand, and vice versa.


==== A suitably large inventory-related database and machine learning ====
==== The largest inventory-related database and machine learning ====
A key ingredient to lowering the finance cost is inventory-related data. That is to say, the more inventory-related data to which an inventory-finance provider has access, the lower the finance cost (and, ultimately, the higher the finance demand). Accordingly, we believe that building a suitably large database of inventory-related data is key for the success of a company in the inventory-finance space, and, therefore, that’s where Supply@Me Capital needs to focus its energy. Indeed, a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) detailed that "the absence of comprehensive trade finance data posed a significant hurdle ... to make informed, timely decisions".<ref name=":2">https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/wpiea2019165-print-pdf.ashx</ref> For us, therefore, a key milestone is the hiring of a chief technology officer (CFO) and senior data scientist (i.e. someone who has around five years experience with Python or another similar programming language), which we estimate will cost the company around >£100,000 per year each.
A key ingredient to lowering the finance cost is inventory-related data. That is to say, the more inventory-related data to which an inventory-finance provider has access, the lower the finance cost (and, ultimately, the higher the finance demand). Accordingly, we believe that building a suitably large database of inventory-related data is key for the success of a company in the inventory-finance space, and, therefore, that’s where Supply@Me Capital needs to focus its energy. Indeed, a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) detailed that "the absence of comprehensive trade finance data posed a significant hurdle ... to make informed, timely decisions".<ref name=":2" /> For us, therefore, a key milestone is the hiring of a chief technology officer (CFO) and senior data scientist (i.e. someone who has around five years experience with Python or another similar programming language), which we estimate will cost the company around >£100,000 per year each.


==== Internet of things ====
==== Internet of things ====
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==== Distributed ledger technology ====
==== Distributed ledger technology ====
Evidence suggests that recording inventory-related information (i.e. inventory finance transactions) on a distributed ledger<ref>A distributed ledger (also called a shared ledger or distributed ledger technology or DLT) is the consensus of replicated, shared, and synchronized digital data that is geographically spread (distributed) across many sites, countries, or institutions. In contrast to a centralized database, a distributed ledger does not require a central administrator, and consequently does not have a single (central) point-of-failure.</ref>, such as blockchain, will result in inventory-intensive companies financing their inventory much more efficiently<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":4">https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/sg/Documents/finance-transformation/sea-ft-crunch-time-iv-blockchain.pdf</ref>, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits<ref name=":3" />. Accordingly, for us, the implementation of distributed ledger technology is a key milestone.
Evidence suggests that recording inventory-related information (i.e. inventory finance transactions) on a distributed ledger<ref>A distributed ledger (also called a shared ledger or distributed ledger technology or DLT) is the consensus of replicated, shared, and synchronized digital data that is geographically spread (distributed) across many sites, countries, or institutions. In contrast to a centralized database, a distributed ledger does not require a central administrator, and consequently does not have a single (central) point-of-failure.</ref>, such as blockchain, will result in inventory-intensive companies financing their inventory much more efficiently<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":4" />, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits<ref name=":3" />. Accordingly, for us, the implementation of distributed ledger technology is a key milestone.


==== Other types of finance ====
=== Sales and marketing ===
We expect that once the company has captured a large enough share of the inventory-related finance market (say 10%), the company will then move to other, broader areas of finance, such as non-inventory-related assets (such as accounts receivables) and the business as whole (i.e. business loans and equity).
 
==== Early-stage inventory-intensive companies ====
 
===== Italy =====
ccc
 
===== Global =====
ccc
 
==== Islamic inventory-intensive companies ====
 
===== Saudi Arabia =====
ccc
 
===== Global =====
ccc
 
The company has developed one of the first Shariah-compliant inventory finance platform, and, it, therefore, makes sense to target people who follow Shariah (i.e. Muslims). According to the 2016 World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Turkey represented over 87% of the international Islamic banking assets.<ref>World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report 2013–14 EY Global Centre of Excellence, Bahrain.</ref> Accordingly, a key milestone for us is the marketing and selling of the company's product to people in those countries. 
Currently, inventory finance is treated as a loan, involving interest (payments). Interest is considered to be a sin in Islam (Quran 2:278-279), and, therefore, Muslims should avoid engaging in transactions that involve interest. Accordingly, the current form of inventory finance excludes 1.97 billion people (or 25% of the global population). The Supply@Me Finance company claims that its form of inventory finance is structured in a way in which the inventory is actually sold (i.e. it's not treated as a loan, and, therefore, there is no associated interest), making the platform an inventory finance platform that truly sells the inventory (i.e. true sale inventory finance platform), and, therefore, an inventory finance platform that is allowed to be used by Muslims (i.e. Muslim-permissible inventory finance platform).  
 
Many Islamic countries adopt Sharia, Islamic law, and the Supply@ME finance structure has been approved as being compliant within the principles of Shariah, thereby making the platform the world’s first and only shariah-compliant inventory finance platform.
 
Accountants will often require a legal opinion confirming that a true sale of the receivables has been achieved from a legal perspective before a transaction can be classified as off-balance sheet.<ref>https://www.simmons-simmons.com/en/publications/ck0alkdv2neex0b85znrdvrue/19-true-sale-of-receivables</ref>


=== Sales and marketing ===
<nowiki>https://www.huntonak.com/en/insights/true-sale-or-not-true-sale-that-is-the-question.html</nowiki>
 
In consequence, as one commentary put it, "defining true sale is the holy grail of the securitization market."
 
SABB launches new sharia-compliant inventory financing solution: https://www.gtreview.com/news/mena/sabb-launches-new-sharia-compliant-inventory-financing-solution/
 
SABB rolls out new sharia-compliant SCF product: <nowiki>https://www.gtreview.com/news/mena/sabb-rolls-out-new-sharia-compliant-scf-product/</nowiki>
 
<nowiki>https://thepaypers.com/e-invoicing-supply-chain-finance/liquidx-completes-first-sharia-transaction--775316</nowiki>
 
https://www.liquidx.com/


As touched upon earlier in this report, we expect Supply@ME Capital to initially target Italy-incorporated, early-stage inventory-intensive companies.
https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/42924-88#timeline


The company has developed one of the first Shariah-compliant inventory finance platform, and, it, therefore, makes sense to target people who follow Shariah (i.e. Muslims). According to the 2016 World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Turkey represented over 87% of the international Islamic banking assets.<ref>World Islamic Banking Competitiveness Report 2013–14 EY Global Centre of Excellence, Bahrain.</ref>
https://www.tradeteq.com/


Accordingly, we imagine that once the company has captured a large enough share of its initial market (say 10%), the company will then move to other geographically markets (i.e. Saudi Arabia) and target audiences (i.e. Islamic inventory-intensive companies), with the aim of going global.
== Who are the key members of the team? ==
== Who are the key members of the team? ==
The company is led by the person who believes in the mission of the company the most: the creator of the company mission (i.e. Alessandro Zamboni). Between them, the members of the team have helped companies raise a significant amount of finance and build some of the world's most renowned digital platforms.
The company is led by the person who believes in the mission of the company the most: the creator of the company mission (i.e. Alessandro Zamboni). Between them, the members of the team have helped companies raise a significant amount of finance and build some of the world's most renowned digital platforms.
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|What's the estimated company peak market share?
|What's the estimated company peak market share?
|1%
|1%
|We estimate that especially given the experienced, founder-led team of the company, the peak market share of Supply@ME Capital is around 1%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Supply@ME Capital's current share of the market is negligible.
|We estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Supply@ME Capital is around 1%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Supply@ME Capital's current share of the market is negligible.
|-
|-
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?
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== What are the key risks of investing in the company? ==
== What are the key risks of investing in the company? ==
As with any investment, investing in Supply@ME Capital carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta (i.e. 4.61)<ref>Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 4.61, and is, accordingly, 561% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'high' level of riskiness is 50% or more above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in Supply@ME Captial is considered to be 'high' (561%>50%).
As with any investment, investing in Supply@ME Capital carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta (i.e. 4.61)<ref>Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For example, Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta (5 years, monthly data) is 6.14, and is, accordingly, 714% above the market beta (of 1); assuming that a 'high' level of riskiness is 50% or more above the market beta, then the riskiness of investing in Supply@ME Captial is considered to be 'high' (714%>50%).


For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. An argument can be made that the 2 years, weekly data can be especially appropriate in fast growing markets.
For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. An argument can be made that the 2 years, weekly data can be especially appropriate in fast growing markets.
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The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref>, the degree of risk associated with an investment in Supply@ME Capital is 'high'.  
The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref>, the degree of risk associated with an investment in Supply@ME Capital is 'high'.  


Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. We note that the company in its current state was only really formed (following a reverse takeover) on 27th March 2020<ref>Officially, the company was formed on 1st March 2000 (i.e. almost 23 years ago).</ref>, and, therefore, the numbers of available data observations is less than what's typically used in the five years of monthly data beta calculation (i.e. 33 observations vs. 60 observations). The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'high' risk, it must have a beta value of 1.5 or more, and for it to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.5 and 1.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.
Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. We note that the company in its current state was only really formed (following a reverse takeover) on 27th March 2020<ref>Officially, the company was formed on 1st March 2000 (i.e. almost 23 years ago).</ref>, and, therefore, the numbers of available data observations is less than what's typically used in the five years of monthly data beta calculation (i.e. 33 observations vs. 60 observations). The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'high' risk, it must have a beta value of 1.5 or more, and for it to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.5 and 1.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.


That said, an argument has been made that especially in fast growing markets, it's best to use two years of weekly data; using the two years, weekly data, Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta is 1.36, which is considered relatively 'medium' in terms of riskiness level.  
That said, an argument has been made that especially in fast growing markets, it's best to use two years of weekly data; using the two years, weekly data, Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta is 1.36, which is considered relatively 'medium' in terms of riskiness level.  
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===What's the expected return of an investment in the company?===
===What's the expected return of an investment in the company?===


We estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 411%, which equates to an annual return of 33%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £511,000 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
We estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 411%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £51,100 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.


Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.


===What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?===
===What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?===
{| class="wikitable"
|+ Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
| Which valuation model do you want to use?
|Discounted cash flow
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach<ref name=":5">Demirakos et al., 2010; Gleason et al., 2013</ref>, so that's the approach that we suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report).
Supply@ME Capital has never paid cash dividends, and it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
| Proactive Investors
|The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by us (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so we suggests using those.
|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 1</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
|25%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
|60%
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1) is 60%.
|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
| 15%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
| 90%
| Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%.
|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
| 10%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
|100%
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.
|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>'''
|-
|Discount rate (%)
| 10%
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
|-
|Probability of success (%)
| 100%
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.
|-
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Other key inputs</div>'''
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|$54.80 million
|As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the Supply@Me Capital company is $54.80 million (or £45.30 million).
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
| Between now and five years time
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf</ref> Accordingly, we suggest that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
Line 1,043: Line 1,066:
|Beta
|Beta
|4.61
|4.61
|Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.
|Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.
|-
|-
|Equity risk premium (%)
|Equity risk premium (%)
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|Financing|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-
|Financing|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-
|}
|}
=== How does a supply chain finance platform works and what is the main benefit of the platform? ===
The main role of technology providers, generally known as FinTechs (financial technology firms), is to provide an online transaction platform (i.e. an SCF platform) to facilitate the exchange of information between buyers, suppliers and external funders.
Banks may own the platform or utilise a third-party platform provider. The potential benefit of using a third-party platform provider is that corporate customers can choose between using their own funds, or single or multiple external funders.
Using a longitudinal case study of a focal firm, Motorola, Blackman et al. (2013) explore the concept of financial supply chain (FSC) and find that sharing financial data with suppliers helps generate cost savings for both parties and improves the payment process as well as reducing risk. Two studies emphasize collaboration and the network features of SCF.
Regarding reasons to adopt SCF, the primary objective is to extend payment terms or Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) (Van der Vliet et al., 2015; Liebl et al., 2016). Some firms aim to reduce risk in supply chains (Caniato et al., 2016; Liebl et al., 2016) while only a few adopt SCF for the purpose of process simplification (Liebl et al., 2016).


== References ==
== References ==
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<references />
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