Supply@ME Capital

• Headquartered in the United Kingdom, Supply@ME Capital plc is a company that's on a mission to help businesses maximise their profits.
• The flagship offering of the company is a web application that enables inventory-intensive businesses (such as manufacturing companies) to finance their inventory. What makes the inventory finance platform unique is that it records the inventory finance transactions on a blockchain. Evidence suggests that a blockchain-enabled inventory finance platform will result in inventory-intensive companies financing their inventory much more efficiently, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits.
• The expected return of an investment in Supply@ME Capital plc over the next five years is 411%, according to the estimates of Proactive Investors. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £51,100 in five years time.
• The degree of risk associated with an investment in Supply@ME Capital plc is 'high', with the shares having an adjusted beta that is 714% above the market (6.14 vs. 1).
• Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

Operations

How did the idea of the company come about?

The idea of Supply@ME Capital plc came to Alessandro Zamboni, the now founder of the company, when he developed a strong desire to maximise the profits of his business. Researching into how to do that, he realised that one of the best ways is to finance more efficiently the business' working capital, in particular inventory. He also realised that there are many companies that feel the same way as him, with profit maximisation one of the fundamental assumptions of economic theory. In his quest to maximise the profits of his business and others, Supply@ME Capital plc was born.

What's the mission of the company?

The mission of Supply@ME Capital plc is to help companies maximise their profits.

Who’s the target audience of the company’s flagship/first product?

The audience is companies that have a relatively high amount of inventory (i.e. inventory-intensive companies), such as manufacturing companies. Examples of the companies include the international steel, energy, minerals and materials conglomerate JSW Group, the electrical and mechanical workshop equipment supplier Clarke International and the Italian supermarket company Esselunga.

What's a major problem that the target audience experience?

The problem is a lack of profits.

What's a key solution to the problem?

The solution is Supply@ME, a web application that enables inventory-intensive businesses to finance their inventory. What makes the inventory finance platform unique is that it records the inventory finance transactions on a blockchain. Evidence suggests that a blockchain-enabled inventory finance platform will result in inventory-intensive companies financing their inventory much more efficiently, ultimately leading the companies to improve/maximise their profits.

Which are the main competitors of the product?

A key way to determine an offering’s closest competitors is by looking at other offerings that are targeting the same or similar target audience (i.e. inventory-intensive businesses) and providing or aiming to provide the same core benefit (i.e. more/maximum business profits), and then ranking the offerings in terms of the total amount of time spent using and/or money spent purchasing the offerings. With that said, we view that the closest competitors of the Supply@ME platform are TraxPay, Demica and Novuna. A detailed comparison between Supply@ME and its main competitors are shown in the table below.

Competition analysis

	Supply@ME	TraxPay	Demica	Novuna	Marco Polo Network	Kyriba	Taulia	Orbian	PrimeRevenue
Is the product targeted toward inventory-intensive companies?	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Is the core benefit of the product more/maximum business profits?	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Is the product a supply chain finance (SCF) platform?	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Does the platform record the finance transactions on a blockchain (i.e. Blockchain-enabled SCF platform)?	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	No	No	No

What is the main way that the company expects to make money?

The main way that Supply@ME expects to make money from its platform is via finance arrangement fees, which is around 2% of the finance that the company helps to arrange. For example, if $10,000,000 worth of inventory finance is facilitated/arranged via the platform, then Supply@ME will make $200,000 on the arrangement (i.e. $10,000,000 x 2% =$200,000).

Another way that the company expects to make money is by securitising the inventories, selling the securitised-inventories to investors (the investors are expected to receive a coupon of 4-6% per annum) and then charging a fee to the investors for Supply@ME collecting payments and monitoring the security (i.e. servicing fee). The company expects the servicing fee to be between 6% and 8% of the value of the security. So, if, for example, the total value of the securitised-inventories is $100 million, then Supply@ME will make $7 million in servicing fees (i.e. $100,000,000 x 7% =$7,000,000).

What’s the size of the company target market?

Total Addressable Market

Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global working capital finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $119 billion.

Serviceable Available Market

The serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global inventory finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $48 billion.

Serviceable Obtainable Market

Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the Italy inventory finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (27th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $1.2 billion.

Who are the key members of the team?

Directors

Alessandro Zamboni – Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director

Alessandro is a director who specialises in the financial services industry and related strategic and digital models. Since 2008, he has been managing the delivery and the sales operations of a consulting company specialising in Regulatory & Internal Controls for Banks and Insurance Firms. He founded TAG, the former parent company of Supply@ME S.r.l., in 2014. He holds a BA degree in Economics from the University of Turin.

Albert Ganyushin – Independent Chairperson and Non-Executive Director

Albert was appointed as independent chairperson and a Non-Executive Director in 2022 following a long career in capital markets. Since 2017, he has served as Head of Capital Markets at Dr. Peters Group with responsibility for international institutional business, including investment management, capital markets, financing and investor relations. Prior to joining Dr. Peters Group, between 2010 and 2016, he worked in leadership roles in the listings business of NYSE Euronext Group after a career in investment banking that started with Deutsche Bank A.G. (London Branch) in 2000. He graduated with an MBA degree from London Business School in 2000 and began his professional career as a management consultant with Accenture in London in 1995.

Enrico Camerinelli – Independent Non-Executive Director

Mr. Camerinelli keeps abreast of market trends and business practices by taking an active part in projects launched by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the World Bank, the World Trade Board, and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. He regularly attends major industry events as invited guest speaker and writes on specialized magazines and papers. He holds an MSc in Electronic Engineering from Università degli Studi "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy.

David Bull – Independent Non-Executive Director

Mr. Bull, a Chartered Accountant, is a technology-driven experienced financial services professional with a banking and financial services digitisation mindset. He has held a number of senior board roles within banking, asset finance, treasury and credit management institutions, including several years as Chief Financial Accountant at The Bank of England, and is currently non-executive director of Epsion Capital Limited, an independent corporate advisory firm based in London. He holds a BSc (First Class) in Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Bradford.

Andrew Thomas – Independent Non-Executive Director

Andrew has over 20 years' experience in various business advisory roles and during this time has worked across the US, UK, EU and APAC regions, acquiring expertise of onshore and offshore fund structuring and oversight, particularly in relation to regulatory issues. He also has extensive experience in mitigating ESG risks while helping organisations to maximise ESG opportunities. He holds BA in History and Politics from the University of Exeter.

Dr. Thomas (Tom) James – Executive Director

Tom is an Executive Director, and the CIO, CEO and co-founder of the Trade Flow Funds and FinTech solutions. He has over 30 years of commercial expertise in the commodity and energy industry and is the business and system architect for this unique and innovative digitised trade finance solution for bulk physical commodity transactions. He has experience of senior regulated roles in financial institutions (including Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, Credit Agricole and Credit Lyonnais) and various trading firms including BHP Billiton, covering a full range of functional areas including trade finance, project finance, investment banking, supply chain/operations, derivatives, physical markets, and fund management. During his career he has operated in many countries in Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific. He has authored over nine books in the energy and commodity trading and risk management field and served as Chair Professor and Adjunct Professor at various universities around the world and is a former member of the United Nations FAO Commodity Risk Management Advisory Group, and a former Senior Energy Advisor to the United States Department of Defense (TFBSO). He holds a PhD in Practices for the Global Commodity Markets within the Functional Disciplines of Trading and Risk Management and a Masters in Energy Price Risk Management from Middlesex University London.

John Collis – Executive Director

John is an Executive Director, and is co-founder of the Trade Flow Funds and FinTech solution where he holds the position of Chief Risk Officer (CRO). As well as overseeing the development of the fund’s critical legal infrastructure and working with leading counsel on its enforceability, John has overseen the classification of the specialist intellectual property developed and acquired by TradeFlow and its licensing. John is a commercial lawyer with expertise in regulatory, compliance, structuring, and transactional matters. John operated his own law firm from 2003, specialising in international commercial work. John has written and lectured about the rule of law, Eurasia Economic Union, CSTO, and International Commercial Enforcement. Before becoming a lawyer, John worked for Ernst & Young, he was educated at Oxford University and is chairman of Hertford College RFC.

Senior management

Amy Benning – Chief Financial Officer

Amy gained Chartered Accountancy qualifications in New Zealand while working with KPMG on a range of clients across various industry sectors. On moving to the United Kingdom, Amy worked briefly with BP’s shipping arm, before moving to PwC’s London Capital Markets Team where she spent 12 years focusing on technical accounting, mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings for a wide range of clients. In 2018, Amy moved to Alfa Financial Software Holdings plc, a developer and provider of software for the automotive leasing sector company with ordinary shares admitted to a Premium Listing and to trading on the Main Market. As Finance Director, Amy was responsible for the team managing accounting, reporting (internal & external), corporate governance, audit, systems, process improvement, controls and transactional accounting. Amy joined the Group in June 2021. She holds a BCA in Accountancy, a BSc in Genetics, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology and a post-graduate diploma in Professional Accounting from Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

Stuart Nelson – Group Head of Enterprise Risk Management

Stuart is an experienced credit risk analyst, with global experience of assessing the risk of financing solutions across multiple asset classes. Having begun his career at JPMorgan in the EMEA Emerging Markets Team in 2000, he then spent almost two decades in leadership roles at S&P Global Ratings. During his time at S&P, he managed multiple teams across the European office network in London, Milan, Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris, focusing on the assessment of asset securitisation in all sectors, with oversight of ratings on securities of more than €50 billion equivalent over that period. From 2015, he concentrated his attention on the refinement and validation of risk methodologies across a global spectrum of asset classes. He joined the Group in 2020, where he currently monitors all aspects of the risk and operational functions. He holds a Masters in History from the University of Cambridge.

Alice Buxton – Chief People Officer

Alice is a human resources leader motivated to help businesses succeed by creating environments which enable individuals, teams and leaders to thrive. She has considerable experience in the Financial Services and FinTech industries. Most recently she built the Global Talent function at Greensill, helping the business grow its workforce from approx. 250 to over 1200 in multiple jurisdictions in just over 2 years. Previously she worked as an Executive Director in Goldman Sachs Human Capital Management Division, focusing on the EMEA Trading floor and Risk, Audit and Compliance teams attracting and developing high potential talent. Before this she worked in Talent Acquisition for Ernst and Young’s London office, recruiting for their risk and advisory business. Alice holds a BSc in Psychology, MSc in Human Resource Management and is a qualified corporate and executive coach.

Mark Kavanagh – Group Head of Operations and Transformation

Mark is an experienced Risk Leader with over 25 years in Credit & Risk functions. Before joining the Group, Mark worked for Greensill Capital as Head of Product Risk. Whilst there, he implemented Accounts Receivable policies and procedures, installed an AR platform, helped Greensill Capital expand territorially, and trained the Credit team on any new product offerings, acquisitions and integrations. Prior to that, he worked for GE Working Capital Solutions (the monetisation arm of General Electric group) for 15 years, heading up their European Credit Team, managing the auto scoring and decisioning system, and ensuring processes were safe and efficient.

Nicola Bonini – Group Head of Origination

Nicola has more than 20 years' experience in balance sheet lending and cashflow finance, gained during her time at some of the UK’s most prominent banking institutions. Previously, she was Vice President and Head of Commercial Finance at Bank Leumi (UK) plc, where she managed a portfolio of companies with turnover of up to £1bn. Before this, Nicola served as Executive Director at Falcon Group UK, where she joined the newly formed UK inventory finance team. Nicola has also held senior, highprofile business development and relationship management roles at major banks, including BNP Paribas, The Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland Corporate. Nicola joined the Group in September 2021 to take a leading role in business development, client onboarding and retention. She holds a BA in Business Studies from the University of East London.

How much does the company expect to make over the next five years?

Most recent full-year results

For the fiscal (and calendar) year 2021, revenue decreased by 55% to £0.5 million (FY2020: £1.1 million) as the company focused on automating the inventory finance process, via the development of its platform. The net loss in the period increased by 4.3x to £12.5 million (FY2020: £2.9 million), mainly reflecting its most recent acquisition (of TradeFlow) and investment in the business.

Most recent half-year results

During the six months ended 30th June 2022, revenues decreased by 23% to £209k (H1 2021: £271k) as the company maintained its focus on the development of its inventory finance platform. The net loss in the period increased by 226% to £6.2 million (H1 2021: £1.9 million), reflecting costs related to the TradeFlow acquisition and further investment in the business. Net current liabilities and net liabilities stood at £6.3 million and £4.0 million, respectively. The company ended the period with cash of around £1 million.

Since its most recent half year results

Since its most recent results (i.e. the results for the six months ended 30th June 2022), the company raised £ccc million via equity. It also issued £ccc million in new debt and repaid £ccc million in existing debt. Accordingly, it's cash, net cash, net current liabilities and net liabilities positions are £ccc million, £ccc million, £ccc million and £ccc million, respectively. It's worth noting that Supply@ME Capital is in the 'introductory' stage of the business lifecycle (i.e. growth stage one), and in that stage, financing cash flows are positive (i.e. the business relies on external funding).

What are the financials?

Financials

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50
Year end date	31/12/2018	31/12/2019	31/12/2020	31/12/2021	31/12/2022	31/12/2023	31/12/2024	31/12/2025	31/12/2026	31/12/2027	31/12/2028	31/12/2029	31/12/2030	31/12/2031	31/12/2032	31/12/2033	31/12/2034	31/12/2035	31/12/2036	31/12/2037	31/12/2038	31/12/2039	31/12/2040	31/12/2041	31/12/2042	31/12/2043	31/12/2044	31/12/2045	31/12/2046	31/12/2047	31/12/2048	31/12/2049	31/12/2050	31/12/2051	31/12/2052	31/12/2053	31/12/2054	31/12/2055	31/12/2056	31/12/2057	31/12/2058	31/12/2059	31/12/2060	31/12/2061	31/12/2062	31/12/2063	31/12/2064	31/12/2065	31/12/2066	31/12/2067
Type	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
Income statement
Revenues (£'000)	NA	4	1,147	538	1,801	3,534	6,711	12,327	21,906	37,665	62,654	100,833	157,000	236,506	344,688	486,019	663,015	875,059	1,117,362	1,380,364	1,649,821	1,907,756	2,134,284	2,310,068	2,419,025	2,450,751	2,402,156	2,277,961	2,089,943	1,855,094	1,593,091	1,323,605	1,063,945	827,415	622,545	453,170	319,150	217,456	143,348	91,423	56,411	33,675	19,449	10,868	5,875	3,073	1,555	761	361	165
Gross profits (£'000)	NA	(763)	408	(266)	1,351	2,651	5,033	9,245	16,430	28,249	46,990	75,625	117,750	177,379	224,047	364,514	497,262	656,294	726,285	897,237	907,401	1,049,266	1,173,856	1,270,537	1,330,464	1,347,913	1,321,186	1,252,878	1,149,469	1,020,302	716,891	595,622	478,775	372,337	280,145	203,926	143,617	97,855	64,506	41,140	25,385	15,154	8,752	4,890	2,644	1,383	700	343	162	74
Operating profits (£'000)	NA	(687)	(2,819)	(10,814)	1,081	2,121	4,026	7,396	13,144	22,599	37,592	60,500	94,200	141,904	172,344	291,611	397,809	525,035	558,681	690,182	659,928	763,103	853,714	924,027	967,610	980,300	960,862	911,184	835,977	742,038	477,927	397,081	319,184	248,224	186,763	135,951	95,745	65,237	43,004	27,427	16,923	10,103	5,835	3,260	1,763	922	466	228	108	50
Net profits (£'000)	NA	(551)	(2,964)	(12,487)	1,081	2,121	4,026	7,396	13,144	22,599	37,592	60,500	94,200	141,904	151,663	256,618	350,072	462,031	491,639	607,360	580,737	671,530	751,268	813,144	851,497	862,664	845,559	801,842	735,660	652,993	420,576	349,432	280,881	218,437	164,352	119,637	84,256	57,408	37,844	24,136	14,892	8,890	5,135	2,869	1,551	811	410	201	95	44

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Revenue
What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?	$119,000,000,000	Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global working capital finance arrangement market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (28th November 2022), in terms of revenue, is $119 billion.
What is the estimated company lifespan?	50 years	Research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.
What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company?	3%	Research shows that the growth rate of the working capital finance arrangement market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022).
What's the estimated company peak market share?	1%	We estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Supply@ME Capital is around 1%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Supply@ME Capital's current share of the market is negligible.
Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?	Gaussian	Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped), so we suggest using that function here.
What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue?	5.5 years	Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Supply@ME Capital's current revenue amount (i.e. $0.6 million) and Supply@ME Capital's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Supply@ME Capital's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. introduction stage), the we suggest using five and a half years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within five and a half years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
Growth stages
How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through?	4 stages	Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth. Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation. In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company. A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. We estimate that with Supply@ME Capital's operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1?	30%	Research suggests 30%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2?	10%	Research suggests 10%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3?	20%	Research suggests 20%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4?	40%	Research suggests 40%.
Growth stage 1
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	25%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the margin for its peers is 25%.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the margin for its peers is 15%.
Tax rate (%)	0%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the rate for its peers is 0%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of fixed capital (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the margin for its peers is 10%.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the amount for its peers is 10%.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 2
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	35%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the margin for its peers is 35%.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the margin for its peers is 15%.
Tax rate (%)	12%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the rate for its peers is 12%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of fixed capital (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the margin for its peers is 10%.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the amount for its peers is 10%.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 3
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	45%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the margin for its peers is 45%.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the margin for its peers is 15%.
Tax rate (%)	12%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the rate for its peers is 12%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of fixed capital (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the amount for its peers is 10%.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the amount for its peers is 10%.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 4
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	55%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the margin for its peers is 55%.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the margin for its peers is 15%.
Tax rate (%)	12%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the rate for its peers is 12%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of fixed capital (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 10%.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 10%.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	We suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.

What are the key risks of investing in the company?

As with any investment, investing in Supply@ME Capital carries a level of risk. The key risks can be found below. Overall, based on the Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta (i.e. 6.14), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Supply@ME Capital is 'high'.

For estimating adjusted beta, in terms of time period and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data - and that's what we used to calculate Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta. That said, an argument can be made that the two years, weekly data can be especially appropriate in fast growing markets; using the two years, weekly data, Supply@ME Capital's adjusted beta is 1.18, which is considered relatively 'low' in terms of riskiness level.

Risk factors specific and material to the group

• The group is at the early stage of its development, has not generated consistent revenues from its operations to date and is not currently profitable.
• If the group is unable to maintain or increase originations through the platform or if existing customers or inventory finance funders do not continue to participate on the platform, its business, results of operations, financial condition or prospects will be adversely affected.
• If the scoring models and processes that the group uses contain errors or are otherwise ineffective, or if customer data is incorrect or becomes unavailable, the group’s business may suffer.
• Any failure of the platform or the group's future platforms, software and technology infrastructure could materially adversely affect its business, results of operations, financial condition or prospects.
• The group's ability to protect the confidential information of its customers and inventory finance funders may be adversely affected by cyber-attacks, computer viruses, physical or electronic break-ins or similar disruptions or faults with its systems.
• The group may be unable to retain or hire appropriately skilled personnel required to support its operations.
• The group’s success and future growth depend significantly on its successful marketing efforts, increasing its brand awareness, and its ability to attract new inventory finance funders and customers.
• The supply chain financing market is competitive and evolving.
• Unfavourable general economic conditions may have a negative impact on the results of operations, financial condition and prospects of the group.
• The group may need additional financial resources to develop the platform for future success.
• Uncertainties in the interpretation or application of, or changes in, IFRS or local GAAP could adversely affect the "derecognition treatment" for customers that comply with IFRS or local GAAP and accordingly reduce customers’ or inventory finance funders’ participation on the platform.
• The ownership and use of intellectual property by the group may be challenged by third parties or otherwise disputed.

Risk factors specific and material to the ordinary shares

• Shareholders’ interests may be diluted by future issues of shares.
• Prospective investors and shareholders should be aware that there may be possible volatility in the price of the ordinary shares.
• A standard listing affords shareholders a lower level of regulatory protection than a premium listing.
• Dividend payments on the ordinary shares are not guaranteed, and the company does not intend to pay dividends for the foreseeable future.
• The group is subject to complex taxation in multiple jurisdictions, which often requires subjective interpretation and determinations. As a result, the group could be subject to additional tax risks attributable to previous assessment periods.
• Changes in tax law or the interpretation of tax law, or the expansion of the group’s business into jurisdictions with less favourable tax regimes, could increase the group’s effective tax rate and in turn adversely affect its business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects.
• There can be no assurance that the company will be able to make returns to shareholders in a tax-efficient manner.

How much can I expect to make from an investment in the company?

What's the expected return of an investment in the company?

We estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 411%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £51,100 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 411%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Which valuation model do you want to use?	Discounted cash flow	Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that we suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). Supply@ME Capital has never paid cash dividends, and it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).
Which financial forecasts to use?	Proactive Investors	The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by us (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so we suggests using those.
Growth stage 1
Discount rate (%)	25%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	60%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1) is 60%.
Growth stage 2
Discount rate (%)	15%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	90%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%.
Growth stage 3
Discount rate (%)	10%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	100%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.
Growth stage 4
Discount rate (%)	10%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	100%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.
Other key inputs
What's the current value of the company?	$54.80 million	As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the Supply@Me Capital company is $54.80 million (or £45.30 million).
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?	Between now and five years time	Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years. Accordingly, we suggest that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Sensitive analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Supply@Me Capital investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

1. The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $119 billion);
2. Supply@Me Capital peak market share (the default share is 1%); and
3. The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 16%).

The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Supply@ME Capital investment is shown in the table below.

Supply@ME Capital investment expected return sensitive analysis

Main input	10% worse	Unchanged	10% better
The size of the total addressable market	To be added	411%	To be added
Supply@ME Capital peak market share	To be added	411%	To be added
The discount rate	To be added	411%	To be added

Appendix

Relative valuation approach

As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.

What's the expected return of an investment in the company using the relative valuation approach?

Accordingly, we estimate that the expected return of an investment in Supply@ME Capital over the next 12 months is 141%. In other words, an £10,000 investment in the company is expected to return £24,100 in 12-months time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Supply@ME Capital achieves its expected return level (of 141%), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Which type of multiple do you want to use?	Growth-adjusted EV/sales	For the numerator, we believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, we believe that because it expects Supply@ME Capital to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, we suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, we feel that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use?	Year 1	Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the sales figure, we suggest using Year 1.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use?	Year 2 to 4, from now	We suggest that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 2 to 4.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?	43x	Here, we suggest using a multiple of 43x.
Which financial forecasts to use?	Proactive Investors	The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by us (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so we suggest using those.
What's the current value of the company?	$54.80 million	As at 28th November 2022, the current value of the Supply@Me Capital company is $54.80 million (or £45.30 million).
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?	Between now and one year time	Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.

Sensitive analysis

The two main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Supply@ME Capital investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

1. The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple is 42x);
2. The Year-one sales forecast (the default forecast is $3.5 million); and
3. The Year 2 to 4 sales growth forecast (the default forecast is 87%)

The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Supply@ME Capital investment is shown in the table below.

Sirius investment expected return sensitive analysis

Main input	10% worse	Unchanged	10% better
The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple	To be added	141%	To be added
The Year-one sales forecast	To be added	141%	To be added
The Year 2 to Year 4 sales growth forecast	To be added	141%	To be added

Major shareholders

The table below shows those who hold 3% or more of the company's share capital, as of 14th October 2022.

Holdings of shareholders

Shareholder	Number of Ordinary Shares	Percentage of the issued share capital
The AvantGarde Group S.p.A.	12,742,513,009	22.51%
Venus Capital S.A.	7,900,000,000	13,95%

Note, the total number of issued share capital is as follows: 56,617,688,143 ordinary shares. What's the total number of outstanding warrants and options?

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Cash flow type	Introduction	Growth	Shake out	Mature	Decline
Operating	-	+	+/-	+	-
Investing	-	-	+/-	-	+
Financing	+	+	+/-	-	+/-

How does a supply chain finance platform works and what is the main benefit of the platform?

The main role of technology providers, generally known as FinTechs (financial technology firms), is to provide an online transaction platform (i.e. an SCF platform) to facilitate the exchange of information between buyers, suppliers and external funders.

Banks may own the platform or utilise a third-party platform provider. The potential benefit of using a third-party platform provider is that corporate customers can choose between using their own funds, or single or multiple external funders.

Using a longitudinal case study of a focal firm, Motorola, Blackman et al. (2013) explore the concept of financial supply chain (FSC) and find that sharing financial data with suppliers helps generate cost savings for both parties and improves the payment process as well as reducing risk. Two studies emphasize collaboration and the network features of SCF.

Regarding reasons to adopt SCF, the primary objective is to extend payment terms or Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) (Van der Vliet et al., 2015; Liebl et al., 2016). Some firms aim to reduce risk in supply chains (Caniato et al., 2016; Liebl et al., 2016) while only a few adopt SCF for the purpose of process simplification (Liebl et al., 2016).