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{{#statements:official name|from=Q478214}} is a company that's on a mission {{#statements:mission|from=Q478214}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q478214}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q478214}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q312}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q312}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q2283}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q2283}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q380}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q380}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q190464}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q190464}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q154950}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q154950}}.
The {{#statements:Wikidata property|from=Q484876}} of {{#statements:official name|from=Q20800404}} is {{#property:P169|from=Q20800404}}.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+Project between 17th July 2023 and 28th July 2023
|+Assumption change(s)
!#
!
!Investment
!New assumption
!Investment Analyst
!Old assumption
!Team lead
!Commentary
!Group Lead
!Resulting target price absolute change
!Link to the report on the Stockhub platform
!Resulting target price relative change (%)
!Whatsapp Group Chat
!Assumption absolute change
!Assumption relative change (%)
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="10" |1
| colspan="8" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Revenue'''</div>
| colspan="1" rowspan="10" |Goldman Sachs
|Claudia Torres Quiros
| colspan="1" rowspan="10" |Antao Lou
| colspan="1" rowspan="21" |Claudia Torres Quiros
| colspan="1" rowspan="10" |[[The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/The_Goldman_Sachs_Group,_Inc.]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="10" |<nowiki>https://chat.whatsapp.com/ICHqxZguNPiK1HlOvTqoiO</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Shaunak Satish
|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?
|$2,975,000,000
|$2,975,000,000
|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global automotive market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (30th May 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.975 trillion.
 
 
If the TAM is defined as the global energy market, then research suggests that the estimated size of the market is $6.777 trillion.<ref name=":16">https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett/files/an_exploration_of_energy_cost_ranges_limits_and_adjustment_process.pdf</ref>
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Mac Xu
|What is the estimated company lifespan?
|60 years
|60 years
|Tesla employs around 110,000, making the company a large organisation (more than 10,000 employees), and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.<ref>Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.</ref>
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Ariz Akhtar
|What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company?
|3%
|3%
|Research shows that the growth rate of the global automotive market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product<ref>http://www.robertpicard.net/files/econgrowthandadvertising.pdf</ref>, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)<ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate</ref>.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Tanya Chopra
|What's the estimated company peak market share?
|10%
|10%
|The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Tesla is around 10%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Tesla's current share of the market is estimated at around 1.8%.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Antao Lou
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?
|Gaussian
|Gaussian
|Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function  (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)<ref>http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref>, so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Niam Shah
|What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue?
|6 years
|6 years
|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Tesla's current revenue amount (i.e. $54 billion) and Tesla's estimated lifespan (i.e. 60 years) and Tesla's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. growth stage), the Stockhub users suggest using 6 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 6 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Abdullah Ali
| colspan="8" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stages</div>'''
|-
|-
|Jordan Pang
|How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through?
|4 stages
|4 stages
|Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.<ref>Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x</nowiki></ref> Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.<ref>Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.</ref>
In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.<ref>Dickinson, 2010.</ref> A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Tesla's operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the second stage of growth (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.
 
On 7th February 2022, Tesla said it currently expects: to continue to generate net positive operating cash flow as it has done in the last four fiscal years; its capital expenditures to be between $5.00 to $7.00 billion in 2022 and each of the next two fiscal years; and its ability to be self-funding to continue as long as macroeconomic factors support current trends in its sales. Accordingly, based on forward looking statements, it appears that the company is in stage two of the business lifecycle  (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth remaining.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Gefei Wang
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1?
|30%
|30%
|Research suggests 30%.<ref name=":6">http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref>
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|2
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2?
|Coinbase
|10%
|Swaraat Chakraborty
|10%
|Swaraat Chakraborty
|Research suggests 10%.<ref name=":6" />
|[[Coinbase|https://stockhub.co/research/Coinbase]]
|Zero
|
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|3
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3?
|Mattel
|20%
|Meryl Biju
|20%
|Meryl Biju
|Research suggests 20%.<ref name=":6" />
|[[Mattel, Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/Mattel,_Inc.]]
|Zero
|
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="7" |4
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4?
| colspan="1" rowspan="7" |Rivian
|40%
|Xiang Hong Tan
|40%
| colspan="1" rowspan="7" |Nikhil Gulati
|Research suggests 40%.<ref name=":6" />
| colspan="1" rowspan="7" |[[Rivian Automotive, Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/Rivian_Automotive,_Inc.]]
|Zero
| colspan="1" rowspan="7" |
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Nikhil Gulati
| colspan="8" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>'''
|-
|-
|Ajith Kurian
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)
|79%
|79%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7">http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf</ref>, and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Advay Prabhu
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)
|15%
|15%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Shreya Seshan
|Tax rate (%)
|11%
|11%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 11%.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Jenny Tang
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)
|7%
|7%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Kabishan Sivarasan
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)
|10%
|10%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |5
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Daiichi Sankyo
|15%
|Michael Garanin
|15%
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Conan Quinlivan
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 15%.
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |[[Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited|https://stockhub.co/research/Daiichi_Sankyo_Company,_Limited]]
|Zero
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Conan Quinlivan
|Net borrowing ($000)
|Zero
|Zero
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|6
|Interest amount ($000)
|D-Wave
|Zero
|Erick Jian
|Zero
|Erick Jian
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
| colspan="1" rowspan="19" |Lasen Wanni Arahchige
|Zero
|[[D-Wave Quantum Systems Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/D-Wave_Quantum_Systems_Inc.]]
|Zero
|
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |7
| colspan="8" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>'''
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |EasyJet
|Parth Gore
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Amaan Afridi
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |[[EasyJet plc|https://stockhub.co/research/EasyJet_plc]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |<nowiki>https://chat.whatsapp.com/DXGHXdTlspvBrqrj16DZOC</nowiki>
|-
|-
|Moaz El Kout Oustah
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)
|62%
|62%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 62%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Amaan Afridi
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)
|13%
|13%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 13%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Ison Hau
|Tax rate (%)
|14%
|14%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 14%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Lasen Wanni Arachchige
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)
|4%
|4%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 4%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Allan Preston
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)
|3%
|3%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 3%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Mahmoud Farrag
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)
|10%
|10%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Alex Walker
|Net borrowing ($000)
|Zero
|Zero
|The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Xiaoyi Sun
|Interest amount ($000)
|Zero
|Zero
|The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Samuel Jones
| colspan="8" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>'''
|-
|-
|Carlos Martinez-Soler
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)
|99%
|99%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 99%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="4" |8
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)
| colspan="1" rowspan="4" |BlackRock
|15%
|Paul Pohl
|15%
| colspan="1" rowspan="4" |Angel de la Puente Martinez
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
| colspan="1" rowspan="4" |[[BlackRock, Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/BlackRock,_Inc.]]
|Zero
| colspan="1" rowspan="4" |
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Angel de la Puente Martinez
|Tax rate (%)
|0%
|0%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 0%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Aaruni Arora
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)
|37%
|37%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 37%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Siddharth Puri
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)
|1%
|1%
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 1%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|9
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)
|JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
|10%
|Saad Yawar
|10%
|Saad Yawar
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
|[[JPMorgan Chase & Co.|https://stockhub.co/research/JPMorgan_Chase_%26_Co.]]
|Zero
|
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |10
|Net borrowing ($000)
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Vertex Pharmaceuticals
|Zero
|Daniel ritchie
|Zero
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Daniel ritchie
|The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |[[Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated|https://stockhub.co/research/Vertex_Pharmaceuticals_Incorporated]]
|Zero
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|-
|-
|Callon Peate
|Interest amount ($000)
|Zero
|Zero
|The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|Zero
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Forecast change(s)
!Year
! colspan="4" |1
! colspan="4" |2
! colspan="4" |3
! colspan="4" |4
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="17" |11
!
| colspan="1" rowspan="17" |Microsoft Corporation
! colspan="2" |Forecast
|Lakshmy CR
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
| colspan="1" rowspan="17" |Jamie Ho
! colspan="2" |Forecast
| colspan="1" rowspan="24" |Ioannis Soursos
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
| colspan="1" rowspan="17" |[[Microsoft Corporation|https://stockhub.co/research/Microsoft_Corporation]]
! colspan="2" |Forecast
| colspan="1" rowspan="17" |<nowiki>https://chat.whatsapp.com/IzwfI2BEbhd2S0KrR0EPr7</nowiki>
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
! colspan="2" |Forecast
! colspan="2" |Forecast change
|-
|-
|Maanas Kishorekumar Bysani
!
!New
!Old
!Absolute
!Relative
!New
!Old
!Absolute
!Relative
!New
!Old
!Absolute
!Relative
!New
!Old
!Absolute
!Relative
|-
|-
|Hiu Chung Tang
|Revenue
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Deepak Malhotra
|Cost of goods sold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Anson Yuen
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Zongtai Shen
|-
|Yuhang Zhang
|-
|Wang Xiran
|-
|Daanyal Chaudhry
|-
|Rohan Ooken
|-
|Jamie Ho
|-
|Vidhi Agarwal
|-
|Suhua Luo
|-
|Vinji Ooi
|-
|Ninura Mohottige
|-
|Adeel Ali
|-
|Xiran Zhang
|-
|12
|Nuance
|Ankitha Partheeban
|Ankitha Partheeban
|[[Nuance Communications, Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/Nuance_Communications,_Inc.]]
|
|
|-
|13
|Oracle Corporation
|Ioannis Soursos
|Ioannis Soursos
|[[Oracle Corporation|https://stockhub.co/research/Oracle_Corporation]]
|
|
|-
|14
|ETFs
|Simon Su
|Simon Su
|Need to choose a more specific investment.
|
|
|-
|
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |15
|
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |Royal Bank of Canada
|
|Amrita Dhillon
|
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |Aayush Talekar
|
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |[[Royal Bank of Canada|https://stockhub.co/research/Royal_Bank_of_Canada]]
|
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |
|
|-
|
|Mert Tomurcuk
|
|-
|
|Aayush Talekar
|
|-
|
|16
|
|Safran
|Jérémy Archier
|Jérémy Archier
|[[Safran SA|https://stockhub.co/research/Safran_SA]]
|
|
|-
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |17
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Babylon Health
|Hanna Coutts
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Hanna Coutts
| colspan="1" rowspan="27" |Otabek Tursunov
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |[[Babylon Holdings Limited|https://stockhub.co/research/Babylon_Holdings_Limited]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |
|-
|Alexander Saul
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |18
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Bitcoin
|Harshvi Shah
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Harshvi Shah
|
|
|
|
|-
|James Wu
|[[Bitcoin|https://stockhub.co/research/Bitcoin]]
|
|
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |19
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Oncolytics Biotech Inc.
|Nithyasree Muralitharan
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Nithyasree Muralitharan
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |[[Oncolytics Biotech Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/Oncolytics_Biotech_Inc.]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |<nowiki>https://chat.whatsapp.com/Baym9VntJ7T9nEwFgUwsAX</nowiki>
|-
|Euan Randall
|-
|Faiza Chaudhry
|-
|Shrikha Karuppiah
|-
|Rex Ngo
|-
|Samuel Yiu
|-
|Meera Prabhakar
|-
|Alexandra—Soranna Bacanu
|-
|Kinshuk Jain
|-
|Ching Hang Lun
|-
|Yishan Pan
|-
|20
|Ethereum
|Muyan Yao
|Muyan Yao
|[[Ethereum|https://stockhub.co/research/Ethereum]]
|
|
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |21
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Revolut
|Kelvin Yip
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Gideon Dada
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |[[Revolut|https://stockhub.co/research/Revolut]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |<nowiki>https://chat.whatsapp.com/E5cDfManWDZ5HeVJ3OMThG</nowiki>
|-
|Otabek Tursunov
|-
|Taizhou Chen
|-
|Gaurav Jha
|-
|Donisha Maheshwari
|-
|Seo Jin (Luke) Kim
|-
|Matteo Arduini
|-
|Maia Searle
|-
|Syafiqah Athirah Binti Mohamed Saifulaman
|-
|Tanvir Soori
|-
|Gideon Dada
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |22
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Brookfield Renewable Partners
|Vikram Sahota
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Vikram Sahota
| colspan="1" rowspan="18" |Vraj Agarwal
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |[[Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.|https://stockhub.co/research/Brookfield_Renewable_Partners_L.P.]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |
|-
|Nithi Sendhil
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |23
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |BYD Company
|Dinil Wanni Arachchige
| colspan="1" rowspan="3" |Tarun Bhaskaran
|
|
|
|
|-
|Vraj Agarwal
|
|
|
|
|-
|Tarun Bhaskaran
|[[BYD Company Limited|https://stockhub.co/research/BYD_Company_Limited]]
|
|
|-
|24
|Fonterra Cooperative Group
|Ivan Li
|Ivan Li
|[[Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited|https://stockhub.co/research/Fonterra_Co-operative_Group_Limited]]
|
|
|-
|25
|TMF - Direxion Daily 20+ Year US Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF
|Donghyun (Danny) Kim
|Donghyun (Danny) Kim
|[[Direxion daily 20 year treasury bull 3x|https://stockhub.co/research/Direxion_daily_20_year_treasury_bull_3x]]
|
|
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |26
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Shopify
|Jieon lee
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |Rudraksh Shankaran
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |[[Shopify Inc.|https://stockhub.co/research/Shopify_Inc.]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="11" |
|-
|Winnie Chen
|-
|Daiyang Chen
|-
|Joseph Hart
|-
|Jingran Lu
|-
|Rudraksh Shankaran
|-
|Jack Sangster
|-
|Jamie Moras
|-
|Sejal Vijay
|-
|Hasithe Rathnayake
|-
|Xiaoheng Zhu
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="9" |27
| colspan="1" rowspan="9" |Starling Bank
|Stephen Cao
| colspan="1" rowspan="9" |Alisher Sabugaliyev
| colspan="1" rowspan="15" |Christina Christidi
| colspan="1" rowspan="9" |[[Starling Bank|https://stockhub.co/research/Starling_Bank]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="9" |<nowiki>https://chat.whatsapp.com/LbO5EFG2lmgF8o5s4DAPSi</nowiki>
|-
|Kai-Hung Yuan
|-
|Ahmed Al Ibrahim
|-
|Yuqing Wang
|-
|Shulei Xu
|-
|Krishaan Surendran
|-
|Alan Joseph
|-
|Christina Christidi
|-
|Alisher Sabugaliyev
|-
|28
|Vestas Wind Systems
|Mahsa Sheikhi
|Mahsa Sheikhi
|[[Vestas Wind Systems A/S|https://stockhub.co/research/Vestas_Wind_Systems_A/S]]
|
|
|-
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |29
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Triad Group Plc
|Zhou Saika
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |Zhou Saika
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" |[[Triad Group plc|https://stockhub.co/research/Triad_Group_plc]]
|
|
|-
|Aaron Joseph
|
|
|-
|30
|Ubisoft Entertainment SA
|Nicholas Yiassoumis
|Nicholas Yiassoumis
|[[Ubisoft Entertainment SA|https://stockhub.co/research/Ubisoft_Entertainment_SA]]
|
|
|-
|31
|IBM
|Bejon Jacob
|Bejon Jacob
|[[International Business Machines Corporation|https://stockhub.co/research/International_Business_Machines_Corporation]]
|
|
|-
|32
|Copart Inc
|Muhammad Nuraiman Rayyan Bin Erwazri
|Muhammad Nuraiman Rayyan Bin Erwazri
|[[Copart Inc|https://stockhub.co/research/Copart_Inc]]
|
|
|}
|}
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=== Active and passive investing ===
There's two main investment strategies: active and passive.
An active investing strategy is one in which an investor chooses an investment or investments that the investor thinks is undervalued, with the aim of outperforming the market portfolio. An example of a fund that adopts the active investing strategy is the ARK Innovation ETF.
A passive investing strategy is one in which an investor buys an investment that makes-up or investments that make-up the market, with the aim of performing in-line with the market portfolio. An example of a fund that adopts the passive investing strategy is the Legal & General All Stocks Gilt Index Trust.
=== What's the difference between HY and IG credit? ===
HY and IG are two different credit ratings used by credit rating agencies to evaluate the creditworthiness of issuers of debt securities.
HY stands for "high yield" or "non-investment grade" and refers to debt securities issued by companies or entities with lower credit ratings. These securities have a higher risk of default and therefore offer higher yields to investors as compensation for the increased risk. HY credit ratings typically range from BB+ to C-.
IG stands for "investment grade" and refers to debt securities issued by companies or entities with higher credit ratings. These securities are considered to have a lower risk of default and therefore offer lower yields to investors. IG credit ratings typically range from AAA to BBB-.
In summary, the main difference between HY and IG credit is the creditworthiness of the issuer of the debt securities. HY securities are issued by companies or entities with lower credit ratings and have a higher risk of default, while IG securities are issued by companies or entities with higher credit ratings and have a lower risk of default.
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Latest revision as of 09:48, 24 March 2024

Tesla, Inc. is a company that's on a mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.


The chief executive officer of Tesla, Inc. is Elon Musk.

The chief executive officer of Apple Inc. is Q265852.

The chief executive officer of Microsoft Corporation is Satya Nadella.

The chief executive officer of Meta Platforms, Inc. is Q36215.

The chief executive officer of 滙豐控股有限公司, HSBC Holdings plc, HSBC Holdings plc is Stuart Gulliver.

The chief executive officer of Shell plc is Q15650949.

The chief executive officer of Alphabet Inc. is Sundar Pichai.










Assumption change(s)
New assumption Old assumption Commentary Resulting target price absolute change Resulting target price relative change (%) Assumption absolute change Assumption relative change (%)
Revenue
What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? $2,975,000,000 $2,975,000,000 Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global automotive market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (30th May 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.975 trillion.


If the TAM is defined as the global energy market, then research suggests that the estimated size of the market is $6.777 trillion.[1]

Zero Zero Zero Zero
What is the estimated company lifespan? 60 years 60 years Tesla employs around 110,000, making the company a large organisation (more than 10,000 employees), and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.[2] Zero Zero Zero Zero
What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? 3% 3% Research shows that the growth rate of the global automotive market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product[3], which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)[4]. Zero Zero Zero Zero
What's the estimated company peak market share? 10% 10% The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Tesla is around 10%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Tesla's current share of the market is estimated at around 1.8%. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? Gaussian Gaussian Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)[5], so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here. Zero Zero Zero Zero
What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? 6 years 6 years Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Tesla's current revenue amount (i.e. $54 billion) and Tesla's estimated lifespan (i.e. 60 years) and Tesla's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. growth stage), the Stockhub users suggest using 6 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 6 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Growth stages
How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through? 4 stages 4 stages Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.[6] Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.[7]

In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.[8] A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Tesla's operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the second stage of growth (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.

On 7th February 2022, Tesla said it currently expects: to continue to generate net positive operating cash flow as it has done in the last four fiscal years; its capital expenditures to be between $5.00 to $7.00 billion in 2022 and each of the next two fiscal years; and its ability to be self-funding to continue as long as macroeconomic factors support current trends in its sales. Accordingly, based on forward looking statements, it appears that the company is in stage two of the business lifecycle (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth remaining.

Zero Zero Zero Zero
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? 30% 30% Research suggests 30%.[9] Zero Zero Zero Zero
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2? 10% 10% Research suggests 10%.[9] Zero Zero Zero Zero
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3? 20% 20% Research suggests 20%.[9] Zero Zero Zero Zero
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4? 40% 40% Research suggests 40%.[9] Zero Zero Zero Zero
Growth stage 2
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 79% 79% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[10], and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[10], and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Tax rate (%) 11% 11% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[10], and the rate for its peers is 11%. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 7% 7% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[10], and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[10], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[10], and the amount for its peers is 15%. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Net borrowing ($000) Zero Zero Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Interest amount ($000) Zero Zero Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Growth stage 3
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 62% 62% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[10], and the margin for its peers is 62%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 13% 13% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[10], and the margin for its peers is 13%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Tax rate (%) 14% 14% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[10], and the rate for its peers is 14%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 4% 4% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[10], and the amount for its peers is 4%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 3% 3% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[10], and the amount for its peers is 3%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Net borrowing ($000) Zero Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Interest amount ($000) Zero Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Growth stage 4
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 99% 99% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the margin for its peers is 99%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Tax rate (%) 0% 0% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the rate for its peers is 0%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 37% 37% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the amount for its peers is 37%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 1% 1% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the amount for its peers is 1%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[10], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Net borrowing ($000) Zero Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Interest amount ($000) Zero Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. Zero Zero Zero Zero
Forecast change(s)
Year 1 2 3 4
Forecast Forecast change Forecast Forecast change Forecast Forecast change Forecast Forecast change
New Old Absolute Relative New Old Absolute Relative New Old Absolute Relative New Old Absolute Relative
Revenue
Cost of goods sold


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Douglas Noël Adams

53,823,000,000 United States dollar

53,823,000,000 United States dollar


53,823,000,000 United States dollar



53,823,000,000 United States dollar


  1. ↑ https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett/files/an_exploration_of_energy_cost_ranges_limits_and_adjustment_process.pdf
  2. ↑ Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.
  3. ↑ http://www.robertpicard.net/files/econgrowthandadvertising.pdf
  4. ↑ https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate
  5. ↑ http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf
  6. ↑ Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x
  7. ↑ Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.
  8. ↑ Dickinson, 2010.
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf
  10. ↑ 10.00 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 10.05 10.06 10.07 10.08 10.09 10.10 10.11 10.12 10.13 10.14 10.15 10.16 10.17 http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf
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