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== Sensitivities == Timing and size of long-term opportunities. In this outlook note, we have evaluated several themes in the GIS space and explored initiatives driving SPA’s growth. Generating sales based on these themes and successfully executing on initiatives such as Land and Expand have the potential to boost the company’s finances, in our opinion. However, as many of these are still in the early stages and will have a long-term impact, it is challenging to determine the timing and size of these opportunities. Therefore, our forecasts reflect modest growth rates compared to historical performance; realised growth could be faster or slower depending on actual timing and quantities of the various items. Short-term deal-flow visibility. Although deal flow and signed contracts have drastically accelerated in the most recent quarter, predicting whether this increased pace will continue or merely revert to the longer-term trend is challenging. Moreover, estimating the timing and quantity of contracts with large upfront revenues and optional extensions on the back end is difficult. Note also that the UK contracts seem to receive more attention due to their size, as many of the US contracts fall below a reportable level, so even if the actual quantities of US deals become greater than in the UK, it may not be as apparent when one merely looks at the largest contract wins, making it challenging to forecast US versus UK sales based on reported contract announcements. Overall, a shortfall or boost in sales of only £1m in either FY22e or FY23e, all other things being equal, would affect EBITDA by £0.15–0.16m. [[Category:Thesis]] [[Category:Equities]] __INDEX__
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