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NYC Opportunity Fund, LLC
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== Market == '''Market Data''' * Manhattan has already recaptured 110,000 jobs tightening the unemployment rate to 8.3% from a peak of 16% during 2020. Before the pandemic it sat at 2.8%. We anticipate job growth to surge once companies return to the office in large part this fall. [[File:862564cf1bc24d16a82d7a266e8f40a8899e64e3.png]] * Manhattan’s foot traffic has increased 352% since the low in April of 2020. We are seeing a meaningful increase in activity each week as the city comes back to life, especially its restaurants, cultural attractions, and night life. * Tech is still growing as it is attracted to NYC’s talent pool. Facebook leased over 700,000 square feet during the midst of the pandemic. Google, which has 11,000 employees in New York, also plans to add 3,000 in the next few years and intends to return to its offices in West Chelsea in September. * The luxury home market has had record months for contract signings as of late. In the second quarter, Manhattan apartment closings surged 152% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase in data going back to 1990, according to a Miller Samuel report. The report also said the momentum is continuing as the number of contracts signed in the quarter soared 619% year-over-year to a record 4,633 transactions. Demand is likely to continue as foreign buyers, largely absent for over a year, eventually return. * Manhattan sales pricing has shifted in the buyer’s favor with pricing dropping 24% for multifamily, 19% for retail and 25% for land when comparing 1Q18-1Q20 vs 2Q20-2Q22. Only office has appreciated in value due to the small sampling of outlier sales which occurred. * Pricing has already begun to recover. According to Avison Young’s Tri-State Investment Sales Report for 2Q21, Manhattan multi-family sales values increased 4% to $742/SF in the 2nd quarter compared to the trailing 4-quarter average; retail was up 6% to $1,545/SF; office pricing rose 10% to $1,039/SF; and development sites increased by 9% to $434/BSF. [[File:87132a0c8d92648d211ce5bd2933b545fd3948b.png]] * NYC’s sales activity picked up in the 2nd quarter with a total of 103 sales, the most since the 1st quarter of 2020. That being said there is large pent-up demand as the 10 year quarterly average is more than double that. Further, 2022 NYC total dollar volume is projected to be at only $7.8B, the lowest sales volume since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. The 10 year average is more than 4.5x this amount.
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