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== Amazon's mission is to be the most customer-centric company, the best employer, and the safest workplace on Earth. ==
Amazon's mission is to be the most customer-centric company, the best employer, and the safest workplace on Earth.  
 
The company prioritises customer satisfaction and employee well-being, guided by principles such as customer obsession, passion for invention, operational excellence, and long-term thinking. Amazon operates in various segments, including e-commerce, cloud computing services (Amazon Web Services), digital content, logistics and delivery, smart home devices, grocery and food delivery, healthcare, entertainment and media, advertising, and consumer electronics.  
The company prioritises customer satisfaction and employee well-being, guided by principles such as customer obsession, passion for invention, operational excellence, and long-term thinking. Amazon operates in various segments, including e-commerce, cloud computing services (Amazon Web Services), digital content, logistics and delivery, smart home devices, grocery and food delivery, healthcare, entertainment and media, advertising, and consumer electronics.  


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Amazon faces competition in different segments from players such as Walmart, Apple, Google, and Alibaba. Amazon is also involved in initiatives related to renewable energy, satellite network (Project Kuiper), industrial innovation, lending, and has a strong leadership team guiding its operations. Despite some financial challenges, Amazon continues to invest in its infrastructure, logistics capabilities, physical assets, and strategic acquisitions to maintain its market leadership and drive innovation.
Amazon faces competition in different segments from players such as Walmart, Apple, Google, and Alibaba. Amazon is also involved in initiatives related to renewable energy, satellite network (Project Kuiper), industrial innovation, lending, and has a strong leadership team guiding its operations. Despite some financial challenges, Amazon continues to invest in its infrastructure, logistics capabilities, physical assets, and strategic acquisitions to maintain its market leadership and drive innovation.
<!-- Add information to this summary section about the company's valuation and risks. Also, add references to each paragraph/sentence. -->
<!-- Add information to this summary section about the company's valuation and risks. Also, add references to each paragraph/sentence. -->
== The idea ==
Amazon.com was founded by Jeff Bezos in 1994. The idea for the company came about when Bezos, a Princeton graduate and successful Wall Street executive, recognized the enormous potential of the Internet and e-commerce in the early 1990s.
In 1994, he came across a statistic that the Internet was growing at a rate of 2300% per year. Intrigued, Bezos left his job at D.E. Shaw, a hedge fund, and started to explore potential business ideas that could be capitalized on this boom.
Bezos made a list of 20 possible product categories to sell online, and books were on top of the list. The reasons were many - books were low cost and universally demanded. Plus, no physical bookstore could match the selection of books that an online store could offer.
After moving to Seattle, Bezos set up the business in his garage, where he and a few employees began developing the software for Amazon.com. He named his new company after the Amazon River in South America, in part because it suggested scale (Amazon River is the largest in the world), and his goal was for Amazon to become the largest bookstore in the world.
Amazon.com was officially launched in July 1995. In the beginning, it was only a bookstore. Still, Bezos had a vision for Amazon to become an "everything store". Today, Amazon sells millions of different items, and its business interests extend far beyond retail to include cloud services, digital streaming, artificial intelligence, and more.


== Mission Statement ==
== Mission Statement ==
Amazon's mission statement is:  
Amazon positions itself with three primary objectives: to be the Earth's most customer-centric company, its best employer, and its safest workplace. These ambitions are informed by four governing principles that shape the company's actions and policies. These principles are: prioritizing customer needs above competitor focus; fostering a passion for invention; committing to operational excellence; and endorsing long-term thinking.


"Our mission is to be Earth's most customer-centric company. This is what unites Amazonians across teams and geographies as we are all striving to delight our customers and make their lives easier, one innovative product, service, and idea at a time."
The emphasis of these principles is the well-being and satisfaction of its stakeholders, including customers and employees. Amazon's business strategies are structured around these objectives, aiming to sustain a competitive advantage in the marketplace through a continuous focus on these principles.
 
This statement reflects Amazon's aim to put the customer first and continuously innovate on their behalf.


== Segments covered by Amazon ==
== Segments covered by Amazon ==
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Through its dedicated cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Amazon offers a range of services to businesses and individuals, including:
Through its dedicated cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Amazon offers a range of services to businesses and individuals, including:


# '''Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS):''' This service allows users to access virtual servers, storage, and networking capabilities, eliminating the need for physical hardware.
# Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS): This service allows users to access virtual servers, storage, and networking capabilities, eliminating the need for physical hardware.


# '''Platform as a Service (PaaS):''' This service provides users with the ability to develop applications using pre-configured platform templates.
# Platform as a Service (PaaS): This service provides users with the ability to develop applications using pre-configured platform templates.
# '''Software as a Service (SaaS):''' This service enables users to utilize specific applications without the need for outright purchase or installation.
# Software as a Service (SaaS): This service enables users to utilize specific applications without the need for outright purchase or installation.


=== Digital Content ===
=== Digital Content ===
Amazon provides an extensive array of digital content platforms tailored to cater to a range of interests:
Amazon provides an extensive array of digital content platforms tailored to cater to a range of interests:


# '''Amazon Prime Video:''' A streaming service featuring an expansive library of movies and TV shows, offering both popular hits and Amazon's original productions.
# Amazon Prime Video: A streaming service featuring an expansive library of movies and TV shows, offering both popular hits and Amazon's original productions.
# '''Amazon Music:''' A platform catering to music enthusiasts, streaming a diverse selection of songs across various genres.
# Amazon Music: A platform catering to music enthusiasts, streaming a diverse selection of songs across various genres.
# '''Kindle:''' A dedicated platform for book lovers, delivering a vast collection of e-books spanning numerous categories, from contemporary fiction to academic texts.
# Kindle: A dedicated platform for book lovers, delivering a vast collection of e-books spanning numerous categories, from contemporary fiction to academic texts.


=== Logistics and Delivery ===
=== Logistics and Delivery ===
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=== Advertising ===
=== Advertising ===
Amazon is steadily expanding its advertising division, providing a comprehensive suite of products and services via Amazon Advertising. This enables brands to effectively reach their customers on Amazon's various platforms.
Amazon has a growing advertising business, offering advertising solutions for brands to reach customers on its platforms through Amazon Advertising.


=== Hardware and Consumer Electronics ===
=== Hardware and Consumer Electronics ===
Beyond its range of smart home devices, Amazon also produces and retails an array of hardware products. This includes the Fire series of tablets and TV streaming devices, as well as the popular Kindle e-readers.
In addition to its smart home devices, Amazon manufactures and sells hardware products like Fire tablets, Kindle e-readers, and Fire TV streaming devices.


=== Others ===
=== Others ===
Other business sectors Amazon is involved in include Robotics, as demonstrated by initiatives like Amazon Scout, and space exploration, spearheaded by Blue Origin. The company also has significant investments in artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies.  
Others include Robotics (amazon scout etc), space exploration (blue origin), AI and machine learning.  


== Breakdown of sector revenues<ref><nowiki>https://fourweekmba.com/amazon-revenue-breakdown/</nowiki> </ref><!-- Add the sources to the individual paragraphs/sentences. That said, I think the source here is a poor one, so I suggest using another, more reliable one -->==
== Breakdown of sector revenues<ref><nowiki>https://fourweekmba.com/amazon-revenue-breakdown/</nowiki> </ref><!-- Add the sources to the individual paragraphs/sentences. That said, I think the source here is a poor one, so I suggest using another, more reliable one -->==


=== E-commerce Retail ===
=== E-commerce Retail ===
Amazon's core business lies in e-commerce retail, encompassing the sales of a diverse array of consumer goods via its eponymous online platform. This includes a vast assortment of items such as electronics, books, clothing, and home goods. In 2022, Amazon's online storefronts achieved an impressive revenue of $220 billion. This accounts for 42% of the company's income which is basically a fee from 3rd party retailers selling their products on amaozn. <!-- The word 'impressive' is a relative term. Impressive how? -->  
Amazon's primary sector is e-commerce retail, which includes the sales of various consumer goods, through its online namesake platform. This category covers a wide range of products, including electronics, books, clothing, home goods. In 2022, Amazon's online stores raked in a $220 billion in revenue. <!-- The word 'impressive' is a relative term. Impressive how? -->  


=== Physical stores ===
=== Physical stores ===
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This category includes various sources of revenue for Amazon that do not fall into the aforementioned sectors. It may include revenue from physical stores (such as Whole Foods Market, acquired by Amazon), digital content sales, and other miscellaneous sources. For the year 2022, Amazon generated $4.25B billion from Other Revenue.  
This category includes various sources of revenue for Amazon that do not fall into the aforementioned sectors. It may include revenue from physical stores (such as Whole Foods Market, acquired by Amazon), digital content sales, and other miscellaneous sources. For the year 2022, Amazon generated $4.25B billion from Other Revenue.  


== Amazon market shares across key segments ==
== Amazon market shares across key segments<ref>[https://www.t4.ai/companies/amazon-market-share#:~:text=Amazon%27s%20Market%20Share%20in%20E,Streaming%20%2D%2013%25%20in%202019. https://www.t4.ai/companies/amazon-market-share#:~:text=Amazon%27s%20Market%20Share%20in%20E,Streaming%20%2D%2013%25%20in%202019.]</ref> ==
The previous section showcases Amazon’s breakdown of revenue and the most important segments to Amazon from the perspective of revenues are: e-commerce, third party seller services, AWS and subscription services. Below figures will illustrate the market share of Amazon in some of those segments.<ref>[https://www.t4.ai/companies/amazon-market-share#:~:text=Amazon%27s%20Market%20Share%20in%20E,Streaming%20%2D%2013%25%20in%202019. https://www.t4.ai/companies/amazon-market-share#:~:text=Amazon%27s%20Market%20Share%20in%20E,Streaming%20%2D%2013%25%20in%202019.]</ref>
The previous section showcases Amazon’s breakdown of revenue and the most important segments to Amazon from the perspective of revenues are: e-commerce, third party seller services, AWS and subscription services. Below figures will illustrate the market share of Amazon in some of those segments.


=== US e-commerce market share (June 2022) ===
=== US e-commerce market share (June 2022)<ref>[https://aag-it.com/the-latest-cloud-computing-statistics/#:~:text=AWS%20remains%20the%20most%20popular,%2C%20with%20revenue%20up%2024%25. https://aag-it.com/the-latest-cloud-computing-statistics/#:~:text=AWS%20remains%20the%20most%20popular,%2C%20with%20revenue%20up%2024%25.]</ref> ===
Amazon is the indisputable leader in the US e-commerce sector, enjoying a commanding position, with Walmart, Apple, and eBay trailing behind. Other participants in the market hold a mere maximum of 2% of the overall share.<ref>[https://aag-it.com/the-latest-cloud-computing-statistics/#:~:text=AWS%20remains%20the%20most%20popular,%2C%20with%20revenue%20up%2024%25. https://aag-it.com/the-latest-cloud-computing-statistics/#:~:text=AWS%20remains%20the%20most%20popular,%2C%20with%20revenue%20up%2024%25.]</ref>
The US e-commerce is clearly dominated by Amazon followed by Walmart, Apple and eBay. Other players hold maximum of 2% of the market. Some related statistics about Amazon are as follows:


[[File:Us_e_commerce_market.png]]
[[File:Us_e_commerce_market.png]]


Noteworthy statistics regarding Amazon's position in the industry are as follows:
The US e-commerce is clearly dominated by Amazon followed by Walmart, Apple and eBay. Other players hold maximum of 2% of the market. Some related statistics about Amazon are as follows:
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
!Statistic
|2021 e-commerce Amazon revenue:
!Statistic value
|-
|2021 Amazon e-commerce revenue
|USD 220 billion
|USD 220 billion
|-
|-
|Number of active sellers (2022)
|Number of active sellers (2022):
|9.7 million
|9.7 million
|-
|-
|Number of shipments in 2021
|Number of shipments in 2021:
|7.7 billion
|7.7 billion
|-
|-
|Global number of users (2022)
|Global number of users (2022):
|310 million
|310 million
|-
|-
|Number of fulfilment centres (2023)
|Number of fulfilment centres (2023):
|185
|185
|-
|-
|Total area of fulfilment centres (2019)
|Total area of fulfilment centres (2019):
|150 mln sq ft
|150 mln sq ft
|}
|}
== Ecommerce Trends ==
Global eccomerce sales will reach $5.8 trillion in 2023, reaching $8 trillion in 2027 (https://www.shopify.com/uk/blog/global-ecommerce-sales). Between 2023 and 2028 the average annual growth rate of ecommerce sales will be 8.62% (https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/global-ecommerce-sales-growth). This growth is being supported by mobile use for online shopping. Mobile ecommerce is expected to 42.9% of ecommerce sales by 2024. 
Amazon's eccomerce sales was as follows: 
141.2 billion 2019 
197.3 billion 2020 (40% increase) 
222 billion 2021 (12.53% increase) 
220 billion in 2022 (decline of 0.932%) 
The 40% in 2020 was due to covid. While this growth is unique as a result of that year the sales volumes have remained in that region as a result. Furthermore, Amazon market share of global eccomerce sales increased singificantly in 2020 as global growth only reached 25.7% (https://www.velotrade.com/blog/global-growth-of-ecommerce-markets/). However, since this Amazon's growth has been trivial to global growth in eccomcer sales - global growth reaching 19.6% in 2021 and 12.7% in 2022 (https://www.velotrade.com/blog/global-growth-of-ecommerce-markets/). 


=== Smart speaker market share (2020) ===
=== Smart speaker market share (2020) ===
[[File:Smart_speaker_market.png]]
[[File:Smart_speaker_market.png]]


Much like their unrivalled presence in the e-commerce industry, Amazon's smart speakers, powered by the popular voice assistant Alexa, maintain a dominant position in the market.
Similarly, to e-commerce, Amazon dominates the market of smart speakers with the help of Alexa


The following diagram illustrates the demand for various products on Amazon. Electronics goods emerge as the most sought-after category, closely followed by clothing and shoes, and then home and furniture. Conversely, pet supplies rank as the least frequently ordered items on the platform.<ref name=":0">https://financesonline.com/amazon-statistics/</ref>
In general, the most demanded products from Amazon can be shown in the below diagram. Amazon is most popular with electronics goods followed by clothing with shoes and then home and furniture. The least frequent orders are pet supplies.<ref name=":0">https://financesonline.com/amazon-statistics/</ref>


[[File:Stats1.png]]
[[File:Stats1.png]]


Amazon's prominence as an e-commerce giant extends beyond its popularity in product categories. In fact, it serves as the initial search destination for over half of online shoppers, cementing its position as a starting point for their online purchasing journey.<ref name=":0" />
Popularity of Amazon’s as an e-commerce does not end here. Amazon is also the place where more than half of online purchasers start their search.<ref name=":0" />


[[File:Stats2.png]]
[[File:Stats2.png]]
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=== [[File:Stats3.png]] ===
=== [[File:Stats3.png]] ===


In 2019, Amazon dominated the cloud computing market, surpassing its major competitors with a significant 18% market share. Among the various segments of cloud computing, Amazon's Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) holds an impressive 45% market share. As of Q1 2022, AWS continues to lead as the preferred provider of cloud computing services, with Microsoft's Azure making progress but still trailing behind.
In 2019, Amazon outperformed its major competitors across the entire cloud computing market with a total market share of 18%. Out of the cloud computing, Amazon is most popular among Infrastructure as a service segment with a eye watering 45% of market share. In q1 2022, AWS is still the preferred provider of cloud computing services with Azure (cloud computing provided by Microsoft) catching up but still below.


There are several noteworthy trends in the cloud computing market that AWS can leverage to its advantage:
Some of the cloud computing market trends that AWS could take advantage of are:


# Growing popularity of the cloud among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
# The cloud becomes more popular with SMEs
# Increasing adoption of multi-cloud solutions by businesses.
# Businesses look towards multi-cloud solutions
# Expansion of the cloud gaming market.
# The cloud gaming market is expanding


To provide an overview of the competition faced by Amazon in its key segments, the following table summarises the landscape:
Overall, the competition for Amazon across its key segments can be summarised in the below table:
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Segment of competition
!Segment of competition
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[[File:Image3333.png]]
[[File:Image3333.png]]
=== Amazon industrial innovation fund<ref><nowiki>https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/introducing-the-1-billion-amazon-industrial-innovation-fund</nowiki></ref> ===
=== Amazon industrial innovation fund<ref><nowiki>https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/introducing-the-1-billion-amazon-industrial-innovation-fund</nowiki></ref> ===
In April 2022, Amazon announced the creation of a USD 1 billion platform, dubbed the "Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund". This venture capital-style fund is designed with a focus on bettering the company's operations, enhancing logistics, improving delivery speeds, and advancing the experience for warehouse and logistics employees.
In April of 2022, Amazon committed to create a USD 1 billion “venture capital” like platform called Amazon industrial innovation fund. The aim of such fund is to ultimately improve its operations, logistics, speed of parcel deliveries and simply take Amazon to a new level. The “fund” will invest in companies (not owned by Amazon) that incrementally enhance delivery speed and further improve the experience of employees working in warehousing and logistics fields.


The aim of the fund is to invest in non-Amazon owned companies that can contribute significantly to improvements in delivery speed and employee experience within the logistics and warehousing industries.
The first round of investments of the round involves tech and safety wearing ventures which are summarised below:


The initial round of investments is targeted towards technology and safety wear ventures, with further details provided below:
{| class="wikitable"
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!Investee
!Investee
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=== Amazon lending ===
=== Amazon lending ===
Amazon, which began its lending operations in 2016, is considering a partnership with Goldman Sachs to expand this facet of its business. As of December 2022, Amazon had over USD 863 million in outstanding loans, with interest rates levied between 6% and 17% on the remaining balance.   
Complementary to Amazon lending there are plans to further enhance the lending busieness in a partnership with Goldman Sachs. Frankly the lending operations of Amazon, started back in 2016, but have not been very popular, though were increasing over the years. As of December 2022, Amazon has over USD863m of outstanding loans on its books, where the interests are chanrged anywhere between 6% and 17% on the outstanding balance.   
 
This potential collaboration is enabled by the "Open Banking" regulation, a set of rules implemented by the European Union in 2019. The regulation permits financial institutions to share critical financial information, such as credit histories, with technology companies.


Amazon, despite having abundant customer data, does not possess direct access to clients' credit histories. This information is crucial in assessing credit risk and lending viability. A partnership with Goldman Sachs would fill this gap by providing Amazon access to this important data, potentially enhancing its lending operations.
The possibility of such a venture became possible after the “Open Banking” rule (new set of EU banking rules in power since 2019), which allows banks to share financial information such as the credit history with tech companies. Until now, although Amazon has lots of information about the clients, it does not have any access to the credit history of clients, making it hard for Amazon to properly analyse the credit risk. This partneship will clearly reduce this gap and will help Amazon to reach another high.  


It's important to note that previous instances have shown e-commerce platforms collaborating with financial service providers to offer capital to SMEs. However, the actual impact of this proposed venture on small and medium-sized businesses would depend on various factors including competition and market conditions, and thus cannot be precisely predicted at this point.
The impact of such a venture for SMEs is favourable. The reason is that the market has already seen instances when e-commerce platforms partnered with financial services platforms to provide access to capital to SMEs. Increased competition is likely to enhance the services for small sellers.


== Team<ref>https://ir.aboutamazon.com/officers-and-directors/default.aspx</ref> ==
== Team<ref>https://ir.aboutamazon.com/officers-and-directors/default.aspx</ref> ==
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==== Executive Chairman ====
==== Executive Chairman ====
[[File:Image11111111111333333333.png|left|thumb]]Jeff Bezos is the visionary founder of Amazon.com.
[[File:Image11111111111333333333.png|left|thumb]]Jeff Bezos, the visionary founder of Amazon.com, aims to be Earth's most customer-centric company. With competitive prices, fast delivery, and a vast product range, Amazon delivers exceptional value. It also offers Prime Video for streaming movies and TV shows and popular devices like Kindle, Fire, Echo, and Alexa. Additionally, Amazon Web Services provides cloud computing infrastructure in over 190 countries.  


Bezos is also the founder of Blue Origin, focusing on reducing space travel costs and enhancing safety. He owns The Washington Post and is known for his philanthropy. The Bezos Earth Fund supports conservation efforts, while The Bezos Day One Fund helps homeless families and establishes preschools in underserved communities.  
Bezos is also the founder of Blue Origin, focusing on reducing space travel costs and enhancing safety. He owns The Washington Post and is known for his philanthropy. The Bezos Earth Fund supports conservation efforts, while The Bezos Day One Fund helps homeless families and establishes preschools in underserved communities.  


Educated at Princeton University, Bezos graduated with honours in electrical engineering and  computer science. He was named TIME Magazine's Person of the Year in 1999.
Educated at Princeton University, Bezos graduated with honors in electrical engineering and  computer science. He was named TIME Magazine's Person of the Year in 1999.  
 
==== Chief Executive Officer ====
==== Chief Executive Officer ====
[[File:Image111111111111.png|left|thumb]]Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon, is a visionary leader whose exceptional expertise and strategic acumen have played a pivotal role in shaping the company's success. With an impressive tenure at Amazon, Jassy has demonstrated unwavering commitment to innovation and customer-centricity, driving Amazon's transformation into a global tech giant. Known for his sharp intellect, Jassy possesses a deep understanding of the evolving technology landscape and has been instrumental in the growth of Amazon Web Services (AWS), Amazon's cloud computing division. His visionary leadership and ability to navigate complex challenges have garnered admiration, as he consistently fosters a culture of relentless innovation and high standards. Under Jassy's guidance, Amazon continues to expand its reach and redefine the boundaries of what is possible, making him a respected and influential figure in the tech industry.    
[[File:Image111111111111.png|left|thumb]]Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon, is a visionary leader whose exceptional expertise and strategic acumen have played a pivotal role in shaping the company's success. With an impressive tenure at Amazon, Jassy has demonstrated unwavering commitment to innovation and customer-centricity, driving Amazon's transformation into a global tech giant. Known for his sharp intellect, Jassy possesses a deep understanding of the evolving technology landscape and has been instrumental in the growth of Amazon Web Services (AWS), Amazon's cloud computing division. His visionary leadership and ability to navigate complex challenges have garnered admiration, as he consistently fosters a culture of relentless innovation and high standards. Under Jassy's guidance, Amazon continues to expand its reach and redefine the boundaries of what is possible, making him a respected and influential figure in the tech industry.  
 
==== Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer ====
==== Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer ====
[[File:Image12213.png|left|thumb]]Brian T. Olsavsky joined Amazon.com in April 2002. As CFO of Amazon.com, he oversees the company's overall financial activities, including controllership, tax, treasury, analysis, investor relations, internal audit and financial operations. Prior to becoming Senior Vice President and CFO in June 2015, he served as Vice President, Finance and CFO for the Global Consumer Business. In his role as Vice President, Finance and CFO for the Global Consumer Business, Mr. Olsavsky had oversight and responsibility for the finance team supporting Amazon.com websites, merchant services, and fulfillment operations and subsidiaries. From 2007 to 2010, Mr. Olsavsky was Vice President, Finance for Amazon's North America retail business unit and acquisitions, and from 2002 to 2007 Mr. Olsavsky led the finance departments for Amazon's Worldwide Operations organization. Prior to joining Amazon.com, Mr. Olsavsky spent seven years at Fisher Scientific, where he held a variety of financial and business management roles, and a total of eight years at BF Goodrich and Union Carbide, where he held a variety of financial and operational roles. Mr. Olsavsky received a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Penn State and an MBA in Finance from Carnegie Mellon University.  
[[File:Image12213.png|left|thumb]]Brian T. Olsavsky joined Amazon.com in April 2002. As CFO of Amazon.com, he oversees the company's overall financial activities, including controllership, tax, treasury, analysis, investor relations, internal audit and financial operations. Prior to becoming Senior Vice President and CFO in June 2015, he served as Vice President, Finance and CFO for the Global Consumer Business. In his role as Vice President, Finance and CFO for the Global Consumer Business, Mr. Olsavsky had oversight and responsibility for the finance team supporting Amazon.com websites, merchant services, and fulfillment operations and subsidiaries. From 2007 to 2010, Mr. Olsavsky was Vice President, Finance for Amazon's North America retail business unit and acquisitions, and from 2002 to 2007 Mr. Olsavsky led the finance departments for Amazon's Worldwide Operations organization. Prior to joining Amazon.com, Mr. Olsavsky spent seven years at Fisher Scientific, where he held a variety of financial and business management roles, and a total of eight years at BF Goodrich and Union Carbide, where he held a variety of financial and operational roles. Mr. Olsavsky received a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Penn State and an MBA in Finance from Carnegie Mellon University.  
 
==== Chief Executive Officer, Worldwide Amazon Stores ====
==== Chief Executive Officer, Worldwide Amazon Stores ====
[[File:Image34.png|left|thumb]]     
[[File:Image34.png|left|thumb]]     
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Shelley L. Reynolds joined Amazon in February 2006 as Vice President of Finance and Controller. In April 2007, she was promoted to Vice President, Worldwide Controller and Principal Accounting Officer. In her role, she oversees Amazon’s accounting function, leading the team that touches every geography in which the company operates. Prior to joining Amazon, Ms. Reynolds spent 19 years at Deloitte & Touche LLP, serving as partner from 1998 to 2006. At Deloitte, Ms. Reynolds specialized in matters related to mergers & acquisitions and the Securities and Exchange Commission, serving multiple publicly traded multi-national corporations from a broad range of industries. Ms. Reynolds received her undergraduate degree from the University of Washington Foster School of Business, where she currently serves on the advisory board.
Shelley L. Reynolds joined Amazon in February 2006 as Vice President of Finance and Controller. In April 2007, she was promoted to Vice President, Worldwide Controller and Principal Accounting Officer. In her role, she oversees Amazon’s accounting function, leading the team that touches every geography in which the company operates. Prior to joining Amazon, Ms. Reynolds spent 19 years at Deloitte & Touche LLP, serving as partner from 1998 to 2006. At Deloitte, Ms. Reynolds specialized in matters related to mergers & acquisitions and the Securities and Exchange Commission, serving multiple publicly traded multi-national corporations from a broad range of industries. Ms. Reynolds received her undergraduate degree from the University of Washington Foster School of Business, where she currently serves on the advisory board.
==== Chief Executive Officer, Amazon Web Services ====
==== Chief Executive Officer, Amazon Web Services ====
[[File:Image5555.png|left|thumb]]Adam N. Selipsky is the CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world’s most comprehensive and broadly adopted cloud. He also leads Worldwide Sustainability for Amazon, overseeing efforts to scale and drive Amazon’s adoption of renewable energy, path to net-zero carbon emissions, and other company-wide initiatives. Having previously led AWS Marketing, Sales, and Support from its infancy, Selipsky was instrumental in launching and growing AWS from a startup into a multi-billion-dollar business. In 2016, Selipsky left to become president and CEO of data visualization pioneer Tableau Software, where he led the company through its acquisition by Salesforce in what was the third-largest software industry acquisition at the time, before returning to AWS in 2021. Selipsky is a member of the World Economic Forum Information, Technology, and Communications governors, and serves on the Harvard Business School Dean’s Advisory Board. He has an AB in government from Harvard University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.  
[[File:Image5555.png|left|thumb]]Adam N. Selipsky is the CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world’s most comprehensive and broadly adopted cloud. He also leads Worldwide Sustainability for Amazon, overseeing efforts to scale and drive Amazon’s adoption of renewable energy, path to net-zero carbon emissions, and other company-wide initiatives. Having previously led AWS Marketing, Sales, and Support from its infancy, Selipsky was instrumental in launching and growing AWS from a startup into a multi-billion-dollar business. In 2016, Selipsky left to become president and CEO of data visualization pioneer Tableau Software, where he led the company through its acquisition by Salesforce in what was the third-largest software industry acquisition at the time, before returning to AWS in 2021. Selipsky is a member of the World Economic Forum Information, Technology, and Communications governors, and serves on the Harvard Business School Dean’s Advisory Board. He has an AB in government from Harvard University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.  
 
==== Senior Vice President, Global Public Policy & General Counsel ====
==== Senior Vice President, Global Public Policy & General Counsel ====
[[File:Image67.png|left|thumb]]   
[[File:Image67.png|left|thumb]]   
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'''Beneficial owners'''
'''Beneficial owners'''


As of the 2023 Proxy Statement<ref>https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/Amazon-2023-Proxy-Statement.pdf</ref>, individuals who serve as directors and/or executive officers, the collective group of directors and executive officers, and individuals and organizations that own 5% or more of the total common stock have been granted sole voting and investment power. The beneficial owners list has been released as follows:
As of the 2023 Proxy Statement<ref>https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/Amazon-2023-Proxy-Statement.pdf</ref>, sole voting and investment power is granted to individuals who serve as directors and/or executive officers, the directors and executive officers as a group, and individuals and organisations that own 5% or more of the total common stock. The beneficial owners list was released as following:
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[[File:NetProfitForecacst.png|1200x1200px]]
[[File:NetProfitForecacst.png|1200x1200px]]


== Risks related to growing business ==
== Valuation ==
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model was used to reach an intrinsic valuation for Amazon. Additionally, trading comparable analysis derived a relative valuation.


=== Intense Competition ===
=== DCF ===
Amazon has competitors across geographies and industries- retail (physical, e-commerce, omni-channel), computing services (both web and infrastructure), electronic devices, digital content, grocery etc.
Revenue figures from 2018 to 2022 are used to obtain an average year-on-year growth which can be utilised to project the revenues from 2023 to 2027. Similarly, average growth in taxes as a percentage of EBIT is used to project the taxes. For all other lines of the financial statements, growth is evaluated as a percentage of revenue.  
 
{| class="wikitable"
=== Expansion into newer market segments ===
|+
There could be a possibility of failure to recoup investments in new technologies, products, or services. This is because of the limited or no experience in these areas.  
! ''$ million''  
 
! colspan="5" |''Historical''
== Risks related to operations  ==
! colspan="5" |''Projected''
 
|-
=== International Expansion ===
!'''Income Statement'''
There are several factors like government restrictions/ regulations, physical and technological infrastructure, income levels, geopolitical events etc. which pose a threat to significant revenues and profits from the international market. Amazon has no first-to-market advantage in some geographies and little operating experience in others. For example, regulations in the two biggest Asian markets- India and China are quite restrictive to Amazon’s business activities. Violation of these regulations may result in heavy penalties or revocation of licences. They also face threats from more established local companies and brands.
!'''2018'''
 
!'''2019'''
=== Fluctuation in Demand ===
!'''2020'''
Variability in Amazon’s retail business because of seasonality, promotions, unforeseen economic, climate and geopolitical events place increased strain on operations. The risks related to fulfilment network optimisation and inventory are magnified during periods of high demand. This results in high fluctuations in operating results and growth rate.
!'''2021'''
 
!'''2022'''
=== Technological Risks (data loss, security breaches, system interruption, lack of redundancy) ===
!'''2023'''
Because a lot of sensitive and confidential information is collected, processed, stored and transmitted by Amazon, failure to prevent data loss, theft, and misuse could lead to litigation liability, and regulatory action, discouraging its customers and vendors to use the platform, and could harm the business reputation.  
!'''2024'''
 
!'''2025'''
Furthermore, any event that could prevent Amazon from accepting and fulfilling customer orders and providing services, due to system interruption, delays etc. Can make its product and service offerings less attractive and subject to liability.
!'''2026'''
 
!'''2027'''
=== Strategic Alliances, Commercial Agreements, Supplier and other Business Relationships ===
Violations by suppliers or other vendors of applicable laws, regulations, contractual terms, intellectual property rights of others, or Supply Chain Standards, as well as products or practices regarded as unethical, unsafe, or hazardous, could expose Amazon to claims, damage their reputation, limit our growth, and negatively affect our operating results. A point to be noted is that there are limited or single sources of supply in some cases.
 
Additionally, these arrangements are complex and require substantial infrastructure capacity, personnel, and other resource commitments, which may limit the amount of business Amazon can service. They may not be able to implement, maintain, and develop the components of these commercial relationships, which creates additional risk.
 
=== Risks related to inventory and payments ===
There are several inventory risk factors that may adversely affect the operating results . Some of these are rapid changes in product cycles and pricing, defective merchandise, changes in customer demand and consumer spending patterns, changes in consumer tastes with respect to products offered, spoilage, new product launches. Additionally, certain goods or components require significant lead time and prepayment which may not be returnable. They also carry significant inventory levels of certain products, like consumer electronics, and are sometimes unable to sell products in sufficient quantity or to meet demand during relevant selling seasons.
 
For existing and future payment options they offer to their customers, Amazon currently is subject to, and may become subject to additional, regulations and compliance requirements (including obligations to implement enhanced authentication processes that could result in significant costs and reduce the ease of use of their payments products), as well as fraud. For certain payment methods, including credit and debit cards, they pay interchange and other fees, which may increase over time and raise their operating costs and lower profitability.
 
== Valuation ==
We employed a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to arrive at an intrinsic valuation for Amazon. Furthermore, we utilized a trading comparable analysis to generate a relative valuation.
 
=== DCF ===
We obtained the average year-on-year growth rate by using revenue figures from 2018 to 2022. This growth rate was then utilised to project the expected revenues from 2023 to 2027. In a similar fashion, we used the average growth in taxes (as a percentage of EBIT) from the past years to forecast future taxes. As for other financial statement components, their growth was analysed and forecasted as a percentage of the projected revenue.  
{| class="wikitable"
|+
! ''$ million''  
! colspan="5" |''Historical''
! colspan="5" |''Projected''
|-
|-
!'''Income Statement''' <ref name=":1">https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AMZN/financials/annual/income-statement</ref>
|Revenue  
!'''2018'''
!'''2019'''
!'''2020'''
!'''2021'''
!'''2022'''
!'''2023'''
!'''2024'''
!'''2025'''
!'''2026'''
!'''2027'''
|-
|Revenue  
|232,887
|232,887
|280,522
|280,522
Line 834: Line 776:
|469,822
|469,822
|513,983
|513,983
|565,381
|628,566
|630,400
|768,693
|693,440
|940,058
|780,120
|1,149,626
|873,735
|1,405,914
|-
|-
|''% growth''
|''% growth''
Line 846: Line 788:
|21.70%
|21.70%
|9.40%
|9.40%
|10.00%
|22.29%
|11.50%
|22.29%
|10.00%
|22.29%
|12.50%
|22.29%
|12.00%
|22.29%
|-
|-
| colspan="11" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|EBIT
|EBIT
|25,330
|12,717
|30,457
|14,742
|39,572
|22,824
|48,362
|24,941
|39,039
|13,511
|49,162
|14,156
|61,750
|14,832
|75,553
|15,541
|93,578
|16,283
|114,419
|17,061
|-
|-
|''% revenue''
|''% sales''
|11%
|5.46%
|11%
|5.26%
|10%
|5.91%
|10%
|5.31%
|8%
|2.63%
|9%
|4.78%
|10%
|4.78%
|11%
|4.78%
|12%
|4.78%
|13%
|4.78%
|-
|-
|
|
Line 890: Line 842:
|
|
|-
|-
|Profit
|Taxes
|10,073
|1,197
|11,588
|2,374
|21,331
|2,863
|33,364
|4,791
|style="color: red;" | -2,722
|style="color: red;" |(3,217)
|style="color: red;" | -42
|style="color: red;" |(3,410)
|5,519
|style="color: red;" |(3,615)
|12,375
|style="color: red;" |(3,833)
|22,421
|style="color: red;" |(4,063)
|35,217
|style="color: red;" |(4,307)
|-
|-
|''% revenue''
|''% EBIT''
|4%
|9.41%
|4%
|16.10%
|6%
|12.54%
|7%
|19.21%
|style="color: red;" | -1%
|style="color: red;" |(23.81)%
|0%
|6.01%
|1%
|6.01%
|2%
|6.01%
|3%
|6.01%
|4%
|6.01%
|-
|-
| colspan="11" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
!'''Cash Flow items''' <ref>https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AMZN/financials/annual/cash-flow</ref>
!'''Cash Flow items'''
!
!
!
!
Line 929: Line 891:
|-
|-
|D&A
|D&A
|12,613
|15,341
|15,715
|21,789
|16,748
|25,251
|23,421
|34,296
|25,528
|41,921
|37,084
|45,040
|43,325
|48,392
|49,566
|51,993
|56,587
|55,861
|63,664
|60,018
|-
|-
|% of PPE
|''% of sales''
|13%
|6.59%
|11%
|7.77%
|8%
|6.54%
|8%
|7.30%
|7%
|8.16%
|9%
|7.44%
|9%
|7.44%
|9%
|7.44%
|9%
|7.44%
|9%
|7.44%
|-
|-
| colspan="11" |
|''% of Capex''
|-
|style="color: red;" |(114.25)%
|Net Operating Cash Flow
|style="color: red;" |-129.23%
|30,723
|style="color: red;" |-62.91%
|38,514
|style="color: red;" |-56.17%
|66,064
|style="color: red;" |-65.87%
|46,327
|style="color: red;" |-78.54%
|46,752
|style="color: red;" |-78.54%
|55,554
|style="color: red;" |-78.54%
|80,778
|style="color: red;" |-78.54%
|95,548
|style="color: red;" |-78.54%
|116,789
|139,190
|-
|Net Investing Cash Flow
|style="color: red;" | -12,369
|style="color: red;" | -24,281
|style="color: red;" | -59,611
|style="color: red;" | -58,154
|style="color: red;" | -37,601
|style="color: red;" | -67,097
|style="color: red;" | -74,744
|style="color: red;" | -75,285
|style="color: red;" | -84,545
|style="color: red;" | -85,815
|-
|Net Financing Cash Flow
|style="color: red;" | -7,686
|style="color: red;" | -10,066
|style="color: red;" | -1,104
|6,291
|9,718
|style="color: red;" | -936
|1,064
|1,064
|1,064
|1,064
|-
|-
|
|
Line 994: Line 930:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|Capex
|style="color: red;" |-13,427
|style="color: red;" |-16,861
|style="color: red;" |-40,140
|style="color: red;" |-61,053
|style="color: red;" |-63,645
|style="color: red;" |(56,996)
|style="color: red;" |(51,042)
|style="color: red;" |(45,710)
|style="color: red;" |(40,935)
|style="color: red;" |(36,659)
|-
|% of sales
|style="color: red;" |-5.77%
|style="color: red;" |-6.01%
|style="color: red;" |-10.40%
|style="color: red;" |-12.99%
|style="color: red;" |-12.38%
|style="color: red;" |-10.45%
|style="color: red;" |-10.45%
|style="color: red;" |-10.45%
|style="color: red;" |-10.45%
|style="color: red;" |-10.45%
|-
|
|
|
|
Line 1,001: Line 969:
|
|
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|-
|Cash, BOP
|Changes in NWC
| -
|style="color: red;" |(1,043)
|32,176
|style="color: red;" |(2,438)
|36,413
|13,481
|42,380
|style="color: red;" |(19,611)
|36,480
|style="color: red;" |(20,886)
|54,256
|style="color: red;" |(20,593)
|41,777
|style="color: red;" |(20,304)
|48,876
|style="color: red;" |(20,019)
|70,204
|style="color: red;" |(19,738)
|103,512
|style="color: red;" |(19,461)
|-
|-
|Net Change in Cash
|''% of sales''
|10,317
|style="color: red;" |-0.45%
|4,237
|style="color: red;" |-0.87%
|5,967
|3.49%
|style="color: red;" | -5,900
|style="color: red;" |-4.17%
|17,776
|style="color: red;" |-4.06%
|style="color: red;" | -12,479
|style="color: red;" |-1.40%
|7,099
|style="color: red;" |-1.40%
|21,328
|style="color: red;" |-1.40%
|33,309
|style="color: red;" |-1.40%
|54,439
|style="color: red;" |-1.40%
|-
|-
|Cash, EOP
|''% of change in sales''
|32,176
|
|36,413
|style="color: red;" |-5.12%
|42,380
|12.77%
|36,480
|style="color: red;" |-23.41%
|54,256
|style="color: red;" |-47.30%
|41,777
|style="color: red;" |-15.76%
|48,876
|style="color: red;" |-15.76%
|70,204
|style="color: red;" |-15.76%
|103,512
|style="color: red;" |-15.76%
|157,952
|style="color: red;" |-15.76%
|-
|-
|
|
Line 1,050: Line 1,022:
|
|
|-
|-
|Net Operating Cash Flows*
!'''DCF'''
|30,723
!
|38,514
!
|66,064
!
|46,327
!
|46,752
!
|55,554
!
|80,778
!
|95,548
!
|116,789
!
|139,190
!
|-
|CAPEX
|style="color: red;" | -11,323
|style="color: red;" | -12,689
|style="color: red;" | -35,044
|style="color: red;" | -55,396
|style="color: red;" | -58,321
|style="color: red;" | -57,721
|style="color: red;" | -64,650
|style="color: red;" | -64,415
|style="color: red;" | -72,837
|style="color: red;" | -73,202
|-
|Free Cash Flow
|19,400
|25,825
|31,020
|style="color: red;" | -9,069
|style="color: red;" | -11,569
|style="color: red;" | -2,168
|16,128
|31,133
|43,952
|65,988
|-
|-
| colspan="11" |Note: Net Operating Cash Flows incorporate the effect of Depreciation and Amortisation and changes in Net Working Capital.
|Revenue
|}
|232,887
Sources suggest a terminal growth rate within the 3-5% range<ref name=":2">https://valueinvesting.io/AMZN/valuation/dcf-growth-exit-5y</ref>. The DCF model employs an estimate of 3%, but the full range is accommodated in the sensitivity analysis. This figure is used in calculating the terminal value, which, when discounted, results in a present terminal value of approximately $1.199 trillion. 
|280,522
 
|386,064
In calculating the DCF that forecasts the financial trajectory of a US-based company over the next five years, the risk-free rate is pegged at the US 5-year Treasury rate of 3.87%<ref name=":3">[https://ycharts.com/indicators/5_year_treasury_rate#:~:text=5%20Year%20Treasury%20Rate%20(I%3A5YTCMR)&text=5%20Year%20Treasury%20Rate%20is,long%20term%20average%20of%203.74%25. https://ycharts.com/indicators/5_year_treasury_rate#:~:text=5%20Year%20Treasury%20Rate%20(I%3A5YTCMR)&text=5%20Year%20Treasury%20Rate%20is,long%20term%20average%20of%203.74%25.]</ref>. This figure represents the monthly average rate spanning from January to July 2023.
|469,822
 
|513,983
The summarised estimates from the DCF analysis can be found in the table below.
|628,566
{| class="wikitable"
|768,693
!Input name
|940,058
!Input value
|1,149,626
!Reasons
|1,405,914
|-
|-
|Risk free rate
|''% growth''
|3.87%
| -
|US 5 year Treasury note rate <ref name=":3" />
|20.45%
|-
|37.62%
|Market risk premium
|21.70%
|4.70%
|9.40%
|Analysts expectations <ref name=":4" />
|22.29%
|22.29%
|22.29%
|22.29%
|22.29%
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|-
|Levered beta
|EBIT
|0.88
|12,717
|Analysts expectations <ref name=":5" />
|14,742
|22,824
|24,941
|13,511
|14,156
|14,832
|15,541
|16,283
|17,061
|-
|-
|Cost of equity
|''% margin''
|8.01%
|5.46%
|CAPM model
|5.26%
|5.91%
|5.31%
|2.63%
|4.78%
|4.78%
|4.78%
|4.78%
|4.78%
|-
|-
|Cost of debt
|
|5.25%
|
|US typical debt rate <ref name=":6" />
|
|
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|-
|Internally calculated WACC
|Taxes
|7.74%
|1,197
|Calculated using the WACC formula from above estimates
|2,374
|2,863
|4,791
|style="color: red;" |(3,217)
|style="color: red;" |(3,410)
|style="color: red;" |(3,615)
|style="color: red;" |(3,833)
|style="color: red;" |(4,063)
|style="color: red;" |(4,307)
|-
|-
|Terminal growth rate
|''% of EBIT''
|3%
|9.41%
|Analysts expectations <ref name=":2" />
|16.10%
|}
|12.54%
The market risk premium fluctuates between 4.2% and 5.2% <ref name=":4">https://valueinvesting.io/AMZN/valuation/wacc</ref>, thus we employ an average of 4.7% for our calculations. The volatility of Amazon's stock price is viewed as being lower relative to the general market. This is reflected in its beta, which varies from 0.64 to 1.12 <ref name=":5">https://valueinvesting.io/AMZN/valuation/wacc</ref>, yielding an average of 0.88. Consequently, we derive a cost of equity of 8.01%. When this is combined with the cost of debt, which stands at 5.25% <ref name=":6">[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/14/fed-interest-rate-pause-inflation#:~:text=US%20Federal%20Reserve%20officials%20have,year%20of%20consecutive%20rate%20increases. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/14/fed-interest-rate-pause-inflation#:~:text=US%20Federal%20Reserve%20officials%20have,year%20of%20consecutive%20rate%20increases.]</ref>, we arrive at a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.74%.
|19.21%
 
|style="color: red;" |(23.81)%
DCF calculation incorporates the H-model with an underlying assumption that starting from 2027 Amazon's free cash flows will grow by 7% until until 2037 where the terminal growth of cash flows will be 3%. The H-model assumes a smooth transition between the two stage of Amazon lifecycle. In the process of discounting the future Free Cash Flow to its present value, the WACC serves as the discount factor. This calculation leads to a share price of $138.23, a summary of which is presented in the table below.
|6.01%
{| class="wikitable"
|6.01%
!Metric
|6.01%
!Metric value
|6.01%
|6.01%
|-
|-
|WACC
|
|7.96%
|
|
|
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|-
|Short term Growth
!EBIAT
|7%
!11,520
!12,368
!19,961
!20,150
!16,728
!17,567
!18,448
!19,374
!20,346
!21,368
|-
|-
|Long term growth
|
|3%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|H terminal value
|D&A
|1,758,880
|15,341
|21,789
|25,251
|34,296
|41,921
|45,040
|48,392
|51,993
|55,861
|60,018
|-
|-
|PV of terminal value
|''% of sales''
|1,199,300
|6.59%
|7.77%
|6.54%
|7.30%
|8.16%
|7.44%
|7.44%
|7.44%
|7.44%
|7.44%
|-
|-
|PV of all future cash flows
|
|1,326,882
|
|-
|
|Number of years
|
|10
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|-
|Cash
|Capex
|54,253
|style="color: red;" |(13,427)
|style="color: red;" |(16,861)
|style="color: red;" |(40,140)
|style="color: red;" |(61,053)
|style="color: red;" |(63,645)
|style="color: red;" |(56,996)
|style="color: red;" |(51,042)
|style="color: red;" |(45,710)
|style="color: red;" |(40,935)
|style="color: red;" |(36,659)
|-
|-
|Debt
|''% of slaes''
|140,118
|style="color: red;" |(5.77)%
|style="color: red;" |(6.01)%
|style="color: red;" |(10.40)%
|style="color: red;" |(12.99)%
|style="color: red;" |(12.38)%
|style="color: red;" |(10.45)%
|style="color: red;" |(10.45)%
|style="color: red;" |(10.45)%
|style="color: red;" |(10.45)%
|style="color: red;" |(10.45)%
|-
|-
|Equity
|
|1,412,747
|
|
|
|
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|0
|-
|-
|Number of shares outstanding
|Changes in NWC
|10,220
|style="color: red;" |(1,043)
|style="color: red;" |(2,438)
|13,481
|style="color: red;" |(19,611)
|style="color: red;" |(20,886)
|style="color: red;" |(20,593)
|style="color: red;" |(20,304)
|style="color: red;" |(20,019)
|style="color: red;" |(19,738)
|style="color: red;" |(19,461)
|-
|-
|Fair share price
|''% of sales''
|138.23
|style="color: red;" |(0.45)%
|style="color: red;" |(0.87)%
|3.49%
|style="color: red;" |(4.17)%
|style="color: red;" |(4.06)%
|style="color: red;" |(1.40)%
|style="color: red;" |(1.40)%
|style="color: red;" |(1.40)%
|style="color: red;" |(1.40)%
|style="color: red;" |(1.40)%
|-
|-
|Current Share Price
|
|134.30
|
|}
|
The closing share price for Amazon stocks on 14th July 2023 stood at $134.40<ref>https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amzn</ref>.
|
 
|
We conducted a sensitivity analysis using a WACC range of 6.5% to 9.0%, and a terminal growth rate span of 1.5% to 4.0%.
|
{| class="wikitable"
|
!
|
!
|
! colspan="7" |WACC
|
|-
|
!
!
!6.50%
!7.00%
!7.50%
!7.74%
!8.00%
!8.50%
!9.00%
|-
|-
! rowspan="6" |Terminal growth rate
|Unlevered FCF
!1.5%
|14,477
|$          152.25
|19,734
|$        137.38
|style="color: red;" |(8,409)
|$        125.02
|13,004
|$        115.37
|15,890
|$        114.60
|26,203
|$        105.70
|36,101
|$          98.00
|45,675
|55,010
|64,188
|-
|-
!2.0%
|
|$          164.52
|
|$        147.00
|
|$        132.71
|
|$        121.71
|
|$        120.84
|
|$        110.82
|
|$        102.26
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
!2.5%
|Year count
|$          179.85
|
|$        158.77
|
|$        141.94
|
|$        129.21
|
|$        128.21
|
|$        116.79
|0.52
|$        107.16
|1.52
|2.52
|3.52
|4.52
|-
|-
!3.0%
|Discount factor
|$          199.57
|
|$        173.48
|
|$        153.22
|
|$        138.22
|
|$        137.05
|
|$        123.86
|0.96
|$        112.89  
|0.89
|-
|0.83
!3.5%
|0.77
|$          225.86
|0.71
|$        192.38
|-
|$        167.32
!Present value of FCF
|$        149.26
!
|$        147.86
!
|$        132.33
!
|$        119.65
!
|-
!
!4.0%
!25207
|$          262.67
!32233
|$        217.59
!37850
|$        185.45
!42311
|$        163.08
!45823
|$        161.38
|$        142.69
|$        127.77
|}
|}
Sources suggest a terminal growth rate within the 3-5% range. The DCF model employs an average estimate of 4%, but the full range is accommodated in the sensitivity analysis. This figure is used in calculating the terminal value, which, when discounted, results in a present terminal value of approximately $1.273 trillion.


=== Relative Valuation ===
In calculating the DCF that forecasts the financial trajectory of a US-based company over the next five years, the risk-free rate is pegged at the US 5-year Treasury rate of 3.87%. This figure represents the monthly average rate spanning from January to July 2023.  
A comparable trade analysis is conducted to establish a relative valuation for Amazon, supplementing the aforementioned absolute DCF valuation. The analysis takes into account key competitors, such as Alibaba and Ebay <ref>https://www.shopify.com/blog/amazon-competitors</ref>.
 
The EV/EBITDA ratio, a commonly used valuation metric, takes into account both debt and liabilities relative to the actual earnings. On the other hand, the EV/Revenue ratio serves as an effective tool to determine whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to its industry peers by accounting for the enterprise value and revenue generated by the firm.


The table provides a brief analysis of the ratios and market cap of the several companies in the analysis including their minimum/maximum, median, quartile and mean values.  
The summarised estimates from the DCF analysis can be found in the table below.  
 
In order to consider growth in relative valuation, PEG and growth adjusted EV/Revenue valuation multiples are used. PEG is the ratio of P/E to the annual growth in EPS. Growth adjusted EV/Revenue multiple is the ratio of EV/Revenue to the annual growth in revenue.  
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Name
!Input name
!P/E <ref>https://finbox.com/NASDAQGS:AMZN/explorer/pe_ltm/</ref>
!Input value
!EPS 2022 <ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted</ref>
!Input value reason
!EPS 2023 <ref name=":7">https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/</ref>
!EPS growth
!PEG
|-
|-
|Amazon.com Inc
|Risk free rate
|321.8
|3.87%
| -0.27
|Here, the five-year US bond is used.
|1.57
| -681.5%
| -47.22
|-
|-
|MercadoLibre Inc
|Market risk premium
|92.3
|4.70%
|9.53
|
|16.69
|75.1%
|122.85
|-
|-
|Etsy Inc
|Levered beta
| -16.
|0.88
| -5.48
|
|2.33
| -142.5%
|11.30
|-
|-
|Chewy Inc
|Cost of equity
|306.7
|8.01%
|0.12
|
| -0.01
| -108.3%
| -283.11
|-
|eBay Inc
|39.2 
| -2.27
|3.35
| -247.6%
| -15.83
|-
|-
|Alibaba Group
|Cost of debt
|23.9
|5.25%
|2.34
|
|8.52
|264.1%
|9.05
|-
|-
|Vipshop Holdings Ltd
|Internally calculated WACC
|9.8
|7.74%
|1.43
|
|1.88
|31.5%
|31.14
|-
|-
|'''Median'''
|Terminal growth rate
|'''31.6'''
|4%
|'''0.8'''
|
|'''2.8'''
|'''-38.4%'''
|'''10.2'''
|-
|'''Mean'''
|'''111.1'''
|'''0.8'''
|'''4.9'''
|'''-115.6%'''
|'''-24.5'''
|}
|}
The market risk premium fluctuates between 4.2% and 5.2%, thus we employ an average of 4.7% for our calculations. The volatility of Amazon's stock price is viewed as being lower relative to the general market. This is reflected in its beta, which varies from 0.64 to 1.12, yielding an average of 0.88. Consequently, we derive a cost of equity of 8.01%. When this is combined with the cost of debt, which stands at 5.25%, we arrive at a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.74%.
In the process of discounting the future Free Cash Flow to its present value, the WACC serves as the discount factor. The count of years commences from 0.52. This calculation leads to a share price of $135.57, a summary of which is presented in the table below.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Name
|Enterprise value ($):
!Revenue 2022 <ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue</ref>
|1,457,196
!Revenue 2023 <ref name=":7" />
!Revenue growth
!EV/Revenue
!Growth Adjusted EV/Revenue
|-
|-
|Amazon.com Inc
|(+) Cash ($):
|514.0
|69,674
|560.8
|9.1%
|2.9
|31.8
|-
|-
|MercadoLibre Inc
|(-) Debt ($):
|10.5
|141,000
|13.5
|28.5%
|5.2
|18.2
|-
|-
|Etsy Inc
|Equity Value ($):
|2.6
|1,385,520
|2.8
|7.6%
|4.8
|63.5
|-
|-
|Chewy Inc
|Shares (millions):
|10.1
|10,220
|11.4
|12.7%
|2.0
|15.8
|-
|-
|eBay Inc
|Share Price ($):
|9.8
|135.57
|10.1
|}
|2.6%
The closing share price for Amazon stocks on 6th July 2023 stood at $128.36.
|2.5
 
|96.0
We conducted a sensitivity analysis using a WACC range of 6.5% to 9.0%, and a terminal growth rate span of 2.5% to 5.0%.
{| class="wikitable"
!
!
! colspan="7" |WACC
|-
!
|
|6.50%
|7.00%
|7.50%
|7.74%
|8.00%
|8.50%
|9.00%
|-
|-
|Alibaba Group
! rowspan="6" |Terminal growth rate
|126.491
|2.5%
|132.7
|$132.60
|4.9%
|$116.65
|2.5
|$103.90
|50.8
|$98.62
|$93.47
|$84.79
|$77.45
|-
|-
|Vipshop Holdings Ltd
|3.0%
|14.956
|$150.57
|15.8
|$130.40
|5.6%
|$114.72
|2.5
|$108.34
|44.3
|$102.18
|$91.93
|$83.40
|-
|-
|'''Median'''
|3.5%
|'''10.3'''
|$174.53
|'''12.5'''
|$148.08
|'''6.6%'''
|$128.24
|'''2.5'''
|$120.35
|'''47.6'''
|$112.83
|$100.50
|$90.42
|-
|-
|'''Mean'''
|4.0%
|'''98.3'''
|$208.08
|'''106.7'''
|$171.65
|'''10.1%'''
|$145.63
|'''3.2'''
|$135.57
|'''45.8'''
|$126.13
|}
|$110.97
Amazon had a negative annual EPS in 2022 which results in a negative EPS growth and PEG. Therefore, this multiple is not used to obtain a valuation. It has both a high PE and EV/Revenue multiple compared to the industry median, which usually implies that the stock is overvalued.  
|$98.85
 
|-
On the other hand, Amazon has a noticeably lower growth adjusted EV/Revenue multiple (31.8) compared to the industry median (47.6). This results in an implied share price of $211.09, which is significantly higher than the current share price.
|4.5%
 
|$258.40
== Appendix ==
|$204.64
 
|$168.82
=== Financial Statements ===
|$155.49
{| class="wikitable"
|$143.24
|+Balance sheet
|$124.07
!Year end date
|$109.16
!31/12/2018
|-
!31/12/2019
|5.0%
!31/12/2020
|$342.26
!31/12/2021
|$254.14
!31/12/2022
|$201.28
|-
|$182.67
|'''Current Assets'''
|$166.05
|
|$140.90
|
|$122.04
|
|}
|
 
|
=== Relative Valuation ===
|-
A comparable trade analysis is conducted to establish a relative valuation for Amazon, supplementing the aforementioned absolute DCF valuation. The analysis takes into account key competitors, such as Alibaba and Ebay.
|Cash and Cash Equivalents ($million)
{| class="wikitable"
|$31,750
!Name
|$36,092
!Mkt Cap ($ millions)
|$42,122
!EV/EBITDA
|$36,220
!P/E
|$53,888
|-
|-
|AMAZON.COM INC
|Marketable securities ($million)
|1337744.91
|21.36
|140.55
|-
|ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR
|217919.81
|6.96
|13.71
|-
|EBAY INC
|24068.68
|10.02
|14.64
|-
|ALLEGRO.EU SA
|8131.03
|17.73
|#N/A N/A
|-
|ETSY INC
|10503.42
|24.81
|34.45
|-
|VIPSHOP HOLDINGS LTD - ADR
|9115.95
| -
|10.15
|-
|VERKKOKAUPPA.COM OYJ
|128.12
|14.63
| -
|-
|MERCADOLIBRE INC
|62626.96
|34.66
|101.25
|-
|CHEWY INC - CLASS A
|16156.76
|62.47
|302.76
|-
|JD.COM INC-ADR
|55401.57
|10.04
|17.86
|-
|NEXT PLC
|10942.15
|10.67
|11.73
|-
|REVOLVE GROUP INC
|1216.23
|14.35
|22.3
|-
|1-800-FLOWERS.COM INC-CL A
|495.54
|7.2
|55.52
|-
|PDD HOLDINGS INC
|90833.47
| -
|43.91
|-
|ZALANDO SE
|7090.3
|14.32
|178.73
|-
|ZOZO INC
|6250
|14.34
|21.88
|-
!
!
!
!
|-
|Minimum
|128.12
|6.96
|10.15
|-
|Lower Quartile
|6670.15
|10.1975
|15.445
|-
|Median
|10503.42
|14.345
|28.375
|-
|Upper Quartile
|39735.125
|20.4525
|89.8175
|-
|Maximum
|217919.81
|62.47
|302.76
|-
|Mean
|34725.33267
|18.82571429
|69.2457143
|}
The EV/EBITDA ratio, a commonly used valuation metric, takes into account both debt and liabilities relative to the actual earnings. On the other hand, the P/E ratio serves as an effective tool to determine whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to its industry peers.
 
The table provides a brief analysis of the ratios and market cap of the 15 companies in the analysis including their minimum/maximum, median, quartile and mean values.  
 
The mean EV/EBITDA obtained for the set of 15 companies in the analysis is 18.83, which results in a relatively valued share price of $100.30. The mean P/E ratio in the industry is 69.25 which results in a relatively valued share price of $108.02.
 
== Risks related to growing business ==
 
=== Intense Competition ===
Amazon has competitors across geographies and industries- retail (physical, e-commerce, omni-channel), computing services (both web and infrastructure), electronic devices, digital content, grocery etc.  
 
=== Expansion into newer market segments ===
There could be a possibility of failure to recoup investments in new technologies, products, or services. This is because of the limited or no experience in these areas.  
 
== Risks related to operations  ==
 
=== International Expansion ===
There are several factors like government restrictions/ regulations, physical and technological infrastructure, income levels, geopolitical events etc. which pose a threat to significant revenues and profits from the international market. Amazon has no first-to-market advantage in some geographies and little operating experience in others. For example, regulations in the two biggest Asian markets- India and China are quite restrictive to Amazon’s business activities. Violation of these regulations may result in heavy penalties or revocation of licences. They also face threats from more established local companies and brands.
 
=== Fluctuation in Demand ===
Variability in Amazon’s retail business because of seasonality, promotions, unforeseen economic, climate and geopolitical events place increased strain on operations. The risks related to fulfilment network optimisation and inventory are magnified during periods of high demand. This results in high fluctuations in operating results and growth rate.
 
=== Technological Risks (data loss, security breaches, system interruption, lack of redundancy) ===
Because a lot of sensitive and confidential information is collected, processed, stored and transmitted by Amazon, failure to prevent data loss, theft, and misuse could lead to litigation liability, and regulatory action, discouraging its customers and vendors to use the platform, and could harm the business reputation.  
 
Furthermore, any event that could prevent Amazon from accepting and fulfilling customer orders and providing services, due to system interruption, delays etc. Can make its product and service offerings less attractive and subject to liability.  
 
=== Strategic Alliances, Commercial Agreements, Supplier and other Business Relationships ===
Violations by suppliers or other vendors of applicable laws, regulations, contractual terms, intellectual property rights of others, or Supply Chain Standards, as well as products or practices regarded as unethical, unsafe, or hazardous, could expose Amazon to claims, damage their reputation, limit our growth, and negatively affect our operating results. A point to be noted is that there are limited or single sources of supply in some cases.
 
Additionally, these arrangements are complex and require substantial infrastructure capacity, personnel, and other resource commitments, which may limit the amount of business Amazon can service. They may not be able to implement, maintain, and develop the components of these commercial relationships, which creates additional risk.  
 
=== Risks related to inventory and payments ===
There are several inventory risk factors that may adversely affect the operating results . Some of these are rapid changes in product cycles and pricing, defective merchandise, changes in customer demand and consumer spending patterns, changes in consumer tastes with respect to products offered, spoilage, new product launches. Additionally, certain goods or components require significant lead time and prepayment which may not be returnable. They also carry significant inventory levels of certain products, like consumer electronics, and are sometimes unable to sell products in sufficient quantity or to meet demand during relevant selling seasons.  
 
For existing and future payment options they offer to their customers, Amazon currently is subject to, and may become subject to additional, regulations and compliance requirements (including obligations to implement enhanced authentication processes that could result in significant costs and reduce the ease of use of their payments products), as well as fraud. For certain payment methods, including credit and debit cards, they pay interchange and other fees, which may increase over time and raise their operating costs and lower profitability.  
 
== Appendix ==
 
=== Financial Statements ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Balance sheet
!Year end date
!31/12/2018
!31/12/2019
!31/12/2020
!31/12/2021
!31/12/2022
|-
|'''Current Assets'''
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|Cash and Cash Equivalents ($million)
|$31,750
|$36,092
|$42,122
|$36,220
|$53,888
|-
|Marketable securities ($million)
|$9,500
|$9,500
|$18,929
|$18,929
Line 1,922: Line 2,150:
!31/12/2022
!31/12/2022
|-
|-
! colspan="6" |Liquidity Ratios
| colspan="6" |'''Liquidity Ratios'''
|-
|-
|Current Ratio
|Current Ratio
Line 1,945: Line 2,173:
|35%
|35%
|-
|-
! colspan="6" |Profitability Ratios
| colspan="2" |'''Profitability Ratios'''
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Gross Margin
|Gross Margin
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