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| footnotes = <ref name=10K-2022>{{cite web |url=https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/200406/000020040623000016/jnj-20230101.htm |title=Johnson and Johnson 2022 Annual Report (Form 10-K) |date=February 16, 2023 |publisher=[[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]]}}</ref>
| footnotes = <ref name=10K-2022>{{cite web |url=https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/200406/000020040623000016/jnj-20230101.htm |title=Johnson and Johnson 2022 Annual Report (Form 10-K) |date=February 16, 2023 |publisher=[[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]]}}</ref>
}}
}}
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, researches and develops, manufactures, and sells various products in the healthcare field worldwide. The company's Consumer Health segment offers baby care products under the JOHNSON'S and AVEENO Baby brands; oral care products under the LISTERINE brand; skin health/beauty products under the AVEENO, CLEAN & CLEAR, DR. CI:LABO, NEUTROGENA, and OGX brands; TYLENOL acetaminophen products; SUDAFED cold, flu, and allergy products; BENADRYL and ZYRTEC allergy products; MOTRIN IB ibuprofen products; NICORETTE smoking cessation products; and PEPCID acid reflux products. It also offers STAYFREE and CAREFREE sanitary pads; o.b. tampons; adhesive bandages under the BAND-AID brand; and first aid products under the NEOSPORIN brand. It serves general public, retail outlets, and distributors. The company's Pharmaceutical segment offers products for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis; HIV/AIDS and COVID-19 infectious diseases; mood disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and schizophrenia; prostate cancer, hematologic malignancies, lung cancer, and bladder cancer; thrombosis, diabetes and macular degeneration; and pulmonary arterial hypertension. This segment serves retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals directly for prescription use. Its MedTech segment provides electrophysiology products to treat cardiovascular diseases; neurovascular care products to treat hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke; orthopaedics products in support of hips, knees, trauma, spine, sports, and other; advanced and general surgery solutions that focus on breast aesthetics, ear, nose, and throat procedures; and disposable contact lenses and ophthalmic products related to cataract and laser refractive surgery under the ACUVUE brand. This segment serves wholesalers, hospitals, and retailers. The company was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.


Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is a multinational corporation hailing from the United States, specializing in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies. Its headquarters are situated in New Brunswick, New Jersey, and it's publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The company's common stock is part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and it holds the 40th position on the 2023 Fortune 500 list, showcasing the largest corporations in the United States. Johnson & Johnson boasts a global workforce of around 130,000 employees, with Joaquin Duato currently serving as the chairman and chief executive officer.
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is a multinational corporation hailing from the United States, specializing in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies. Its headquarters are situated in New Brunswick, New Jersey, and it's publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The company's common stock is part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and it holds the 40th position on the 2023 Fortune 500 list, showcasing the largest corporations in the United States. Johnson & Johnson boasts a global workforce of around 130,000 employees, with Joaquin Duato currently serving as the chairman and chief executive officer.
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|}


== Risks ==
As with any investment, investing in Johnson & Johnson carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Johnson & Johnson's adjusted beta (i.e. 0.71)<ref name=":4">Research shows that an investment has two main types of risks: 1) non-systematic and 2) systematic. Systematic risk is the risk related to the overall market, and non-systematic risk is the risk that's specific to an individual investment. Evidence shows that taking on non-systematic risk is inefficient, and it's, therefore, best to eliminate it; and in most cases, elimination is fairy easy to do [by holding a diversified portfolio of investments (i.e. around 15 investments)]. Accordingly, when assessing the riskiness of an investment, it’s best to look at the systematic risk only (i.e. ignore the non-systematic risk). A key measure of systematic risk is beta, and a main way to determine the riskiness of an investment is to compare the beta of the investment with the beta of the market, which is 1. For estimating an asset's beta, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.</ref>, the degree of risk associated with an investment in Johnson & Johnson is 'medium'.
Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more/most accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.5 and 1.5. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.
==== Risks that Johnson & Johnson is exposed to: ====
Risks Related to Our Business, Industry and Operations:
* The Company’s businesses operate in highly competitive product markets and competitive pressures could adversely affect the Company’s earnings.
* Interruptions and delays in manufacturing operations could adversely affect the Company’s business, sales and reputation
* The Company relies on third parties to manufacture certain of our products. Any failure by or loss of a third party manufacturer could result in delays and increased costs, which may adversely affect our business.
* Counterfeit versions of our products could harm our patients and have a negative impact on our revenues, earnings, reputation and business.
* Global health crises, pandemics, epidemics, or other outbreaks could adversely disrupt or impact certain aspects of the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition
Risks Related to Government Regulation and Legal Proceedings:
* Global sales in the Company’s Pharmaceutical and MedTech segments may be negatively impacted by healthcare reforms and increasing pricing pressures
* The Company is subject to significant legal proceedings that can result in significant expenses, fines and reputational damage.
* The Company faces significant regulatory scrutiny, which imposes significant compliance costs and exposes the Company to government investigations, legal actions and penalties
* Changes in tax laws or exposures to additional tax liabilities could negatively impact the Company’s operating results.
Risks Related to Our Intellectual Property
* The Company faces increased challenges to intellectual property rights central to its business.
Risks Related to Product Development, Regulatory Approval and Commercialization
* Significant challenges or delays in the Company’s innovation and development of new products, technologies and indications could have an adverse impact on the Company’s long-term success
Risks Related to Financial and Economic Market Conditions:
* The Company faces a variety of financial, economic, legal, social and political risks associated with conducting business internationally.
* Failure to maintain a satisfactory credit rating could adversely affect our liquidity, capital position, borrowing costs and access to capital markets
* The Russia-Ukraine War, and actions taken in response to the Russia-Ukraine War, could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.
== Financials ==
=== Income Statement ===
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!'''USDm'''
!'''2020'''
!'''2021'''
!'''2022'''
!'''2023E'''
!'''2024E'''
!'''2025E'''
!'''2026E'''
!'''2027E'''
|-
|Assumptions:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Revenue growth'''
| -
|14%
|1%
|7.5%
|7.5%
|7.5%
|7.5%
|7.5%
|-
|'''Cost of sales % revenues'''
| -
|5%
|4%
|4.5%
|4.5%
|4.5%
|4.5%
|4.5%
|-
|'''Research and Development as % gross  profit'''
| -
|21%
| -1%
|9.9%
|9.9%
|9.9%
|9.9%
|9.9%
|-
|'''General and administrative expenses %  gross profit'''
| -
|12%
|0%
|6.2%
|6.2%
|6.2%
|6.2%
|6.2%
|-
|'''Other operating income as % of gross  profit'''
| -
|300%
| -13%
|143.5%
|143.5%
|143.5%
|143.5%
|143.5%
|-
|'''Pretax Income %'''
| -
|43%
| -9%
|17.2%
|17.2%
|17.2%
|17.2%
|17.2%
|-
|'''Taxes % of profit before tax'''
| -
|6%
|99%
|52.7%
|52.7%
|52.7%
|52.7%
|52.7%
|-
|'''% basic net earning per share'''
|
|42%
| -14%
|14%
|14.0%
|14.0%
|14.0%
|14.0%
|-
|'''% diluted net earning per  share'''
|
|42%
| -14%
|14%
|14%
|14%
|14%
|14%
|-
|'''% average share outstanding  basic'''
|
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|-
|'''% average share outstanding  diluted'''
|
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|0%
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Total Revenue'''
|                     82,584
|                     93,775
|              94,943
|           102,064
|           109,719
|           117,947
|           126,793
|           136,303
|-
|'''Cost of Sales'''
|                   (28,427)
|                   (29,855)
|            (31,089)
|              (4,593)
|              (4,937)
|              (5,308)
|              (5,706)
|              (6,134)
|-
|'''Gross Profit'''
|                     54,157
|                     63,920
|              63,854
|              97,471
|           104,781
|           112,640
|           121,088
|           130,169
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Operating Expenses'''
|                   (34,243)
|                   (39,373)
|            (39,368)
|           124,132
|           133,442
|           143,450
|           154,209
|           165,775
|-
|'''Research & Development'''
|                   (12,159)
|                   (14,714)
|            (14,603)
|              (9,681)
|            (10,407)
|            (11,187)
|            (12,026)
|            (12,928)
|-
|'''Selling, General &  Administrative'''
|                   (22,084)
|                   (24,659)
|            (24,765)
|              (6,058)
|              (6,512)
|              (7,001)
|              (7,526)
|              (8,090)
|-
|'''Other Operating Income  (Expenses)'''
|                         (181)
|                         (900)
|                 (783)
|            139,871
|            150,361
|            161,638
|            173,761
|            186,793
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Operating Income'''
|                     19,914
|                     24,547
|              24,486
|           221,603
|           238,223
|           256,090
|           275,297
|           295,944
|-
|'''Interest Income'''
|                         (111)
|                           (53)
|                 (490)
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Interest expense, net of  portion capitalised'''
|                         (210)
|                         (183)
|                 (276)
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Other Income/Expenses Net'''
|                     (2,899)
|                         (489)
|              (1,871)
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Restructuring'''
|                         (247)
|                         (252)
|                 (321)
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Pretax Income'''
|                     16,447
|                     23,570
|              21,528
|              25,220
|              29,545
|              34,612
|              40,548
|              47,502
|-
|'''Tax Provision'''
|                     (1,783)
|                     (1,898)
|              (3,784)
|            (13,291)
|            (15,570)
|            (18,241)
|            (21,369)
|            (25,034)
|-
|'''Net Income from Continuing  Operations'''
|                     14,664
|                     21,672
|              17,744
|              11,929
|              13,975
|              16,372
|              19,179
|              22,469
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Gross profit margin %'''
|65.6%
|68.2%
|67.3%
|95.5%
|95.5%
|95.5%
|95.5%
|95.5%
|-
|'''Operating profit margin %'''
|24.1%
|26.2%
|25.8%
|217.1%
|217.1%
|217.1%
|217.1%
|217.1%
|-
|'''Net profit margin %'''
|17.8%
|23.1%
|18.7%
|11.7%
|12.7%
|13.9%
|15.1%
|16.5%
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Net  Earning per Share'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Basic'''
|                         5.59
|                         7.93
|                  6.83
|                  7.79
|                  8.88
|                10.12
|                11.54
|                13.15
|-
|'''Diluted'''
|                         5.51
|                         7.81
|                  6.73
|                  7.67
|                  8.75
|                  9.97
|                11.37
|                12.96
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Average  Shares Outstanding'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Basic'''
|                 2,632.80
|                 2,632.10
|          2,625.20
|          2,618.35
|          2,626.20
|          2,619.34
|          2,627.20
|          2,620.33
|-
|'''Diluted'''
|                 2,663.90
|                 2,674.00
|          2,670.70
|          2,663.73
|          2,656.76
|          2,649.82
|          2,642.90
|          2,635.99
|}
=== Cash Flow ===
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!'''USDm'''
!2020
!2021
!2022
!2023E
!2024E
!2025E
!2026E
!2027E
|-
|'''Assumptions'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''D&A as % of prior year  long term assets'''
| -
|2%
| -6%
| -1.7%
| -1.7%
| -1.7%
| -1.7%
| -1.7%
|-
|'''Stock based compensation %  growth'''
| -
|7%
|75%
|41.0%
|41.0%
|41.0%
|41.0%
|41.0%
|-
|'''Common stock repurchased %  growth'''
| -
| -7%
|28%
|10.5%
|10.5%
|10.5%
|10.5%
|10.5%
|-
|'''Dividend payout ratio'''
| -
|5%
|6%
|5.6%
|5.6%
|5.6%
|5.6%
|5.6%
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Cash Flows from operating  activities'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Net Income from Continuing Operations'''
|               14,714
|                20,878
|              17,941
|             11,929
|                   13,975
|                   16,372
|                   19,179
|                   22,469
|-
| '''Depreciation & Amortization'''
|                  7,231
|                  7,390
|                6,970
|              (2,298)
|                   (2,398)
|                   (2,505)
|                   (2,621)
|                   (2,746)
|-
| '''Asset write-downs'''
|                     233
|                     989
|                1,216
|                   813
|                       813
|                       958
|                       950
|                       883
|-
| '''Stock based compensation'''
|                  1,005
|                  1,135
|                1,138
|               1,605
|                     2,262
|                     3,190
|                     4,498
|                     6,342
|-
| '''Provision & Write off of Assets'''
|                       63
|                       (48)
|                     (17)
|                       -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|-
| '''Operating Gains Losses'''
|                   (111)
|                     (617)
|                 (380)
|              (1,837)
|                     (833)
|                     (952)
|                   (1,083)
|                   (1,226)
|-
| '''Deferred Tax provision'''
|                (1,141)
|                (2,079)
|              (1,663)
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Other non-cash items'''
|                (1,148)
| -
| -
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Change in working capital'''
|                  2,690
|                (4,238)
|              (4,011)
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Operating Cash Flow'''
|               23,536
|                23,410
|              21,194
|             10,211
|                 13,819
|                 17,062
|                 20,923
|                 25,722
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Cash Flows from investing activities'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Investments in property, plant and  equipment'''
|                (3,347)
|                (3,652)
|              (4,009)
|                   535
|                       549
|                       564
|                       579
|                       595
|-
| '''Business Acquisitions, net'''
|                (7,323)
|                       (60)
|            (17,652)
|              (2,620)
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|-
| '''Purchases of investments'''
|                (8,952)
|                (5,388)
|                9,225
|              (2,565)
|                   (2,917)
|                   (3,316)
|                   (3,771)
|                   (4,287)
|-
| '''Other investing activities'''
|                (1,203)
|                     417
|                     65
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Investing Cash Flow'''
|              (20,825)
|                (8,683)
|            (12,371)
|              (4,650)
|                   (2,368)
|                   (2,752)
|                   (3,192)
|                   (3,692)
|-
| '''Other investing activities'''
|                         -  
|                       (11)
|                         1
|                       -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|-
| '''Cash Flows from financing activities'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Debt repayment (increase in debt)'''
|                  7,095
|                     (990)
|                7,452
|              (6,000)
|                   (5,307)
|                   (4,829)
|                   (4,395)
|                   (3,999)
|-
| '''Common stock issued'''
|                (3,221)
|                (3,456)
|              (6,035)
|              (8,509)
|                 (11,998)
|                 (16,917)
|                 (23,854)
|                 (33,634)
|-
| '''Common stock repurchased'''
|                  1,114
|                  1,036
|                1,329
|               1,469
|                     1,623
|                     1,793
|                     1,981
|                     2,189
|-
| '''Dividends paid'''
|              (10,481)
|              (11,032)
|            (11,682)
|                 (667)
|                     (782)
|                     (916)
|                   (1,073)
|                   (1,257)
|-
| '''Other financing activities'''
|                   (627)
|                     395
|                     65
|                       -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|                           -  
|-
| '''Financing Cash Flow'''
|                (6,120)
|              (14,047)
|              (8,871)
|           (13,708)
|                 (16,464)
|                 (20,870)
|                 (27,340)
|                 (36,701)
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Cash'''
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
| '''Net change in cash'''
|               17,238
|                  9,304
|                7,329
|           (12,798)
|                   (7,381)
|                   (9,313)
|                 (12,800)
|                 (18,363)
|-
| '''Cash at beginning of period'''
| -
|                17,238
|              26,542
|             33,871
|                   21,073
|                   13,692
|                     4,380
|                   (8,420)
|-
| '''Cash at end of period'''
|               17,238
|                26,542
|              33,871
|             21,073
|                   13,692
|                     4,380
|                   (8,420)
|                 (26,783)
|}
=== Balance Sheet ===
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!'''USDm'''
!2020
!2021
!2022
!2023E
!2024E
!2025E
!2026E
!2027E
|-
|'''Cash and Short Term  Investments'''
| -0.5%
|25.0%
| -26%
| -0.3%
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Accounts Receivable % Revenues'''
| -
|13%
|26%
|19.3%
|19.3%
|19.3%
|19.3%
|19.3%
|-
|'''Inventory % Revenue'''
| -
|11%
|20%
|15.6%
|15.6%
|15.6%
|15.6%
|15.6%
|-
|'''Other Current Assets'''
| -
|18.0%
| -
|18.0%
|18.0%
|18.0%
|18.0%
|18.0%
|-
|'''Net Property, Plant &  Equipment (PPE)'''
| -
|1%
|4%
|2.7%
|2.7%
|2.7%
|2.7%
|2.7%
|-
|'''Other Non-Current Assets'''
| -
|35%
| -8%
|13.7%
|13.7%
|13.7%
|13.7%
|13.7%
|-
|'''Goodwill'''
| -
| -9%
|15%
|2.8%
|2.8%
|2.8%
|2.8%
|2.8%
|-
|'''Accounts Payable % COGS'''
| -
|4%
|5%
|4.4%
|4.4%
|4.4%
|4.4%
|4.4%
|-
|'''Other Current Liabilities'''
| -
|3%
| -7%
| -2.1%
| -2.1%
| -2.1%
| -2.1%
| -2.1%
|-
|'''Short term debt % LT debt'''
| -
|43%
|239%
|141.0%
|141.0%
|141.0%
|141.0%
|141.0%
|-
|'''Long Term Debt'''
| -
| -8%
| -10%
| -9.0%
| -9.0%
| -9.0%
| -9.0%
| -9.0%
|-
|'''Other Non-Current Liabilities'''
| -
| -10%
| -15%
| -12.5%
| -12.5%
| -12.5%
| -12.5%
| -12.5%
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Cash and Short Term  Investments'''
|                     25,186
|               31,608
|                   23,519
|                   23,401
|             23,284
|             23,168
|             23,052
|             22,937
|-
|'''Accounts Receivable'''
|                     13,576
|               15,283
|                   19,292
|                   19,647
|             21,121
|             22,705
|             24,408
|             26,238
|-
|'''Inventory'''
|                       9,344
|               10,387
|                   12,483
|                   15,871
|             17,061
|             18,341
|             19,716
|             21,195
|-
|'''Other Current Assets'''
|                       3,132
|                 3,701
| -
|                           -  
|                       -  
|                       -  
|                       -  
|                       -  
|-
|'''Total Current Assets'''
|                     51,238
|              60,979
|                 55,294
|                 58,920
|             61,466
|             64,214
|             67,176
|             70,370
|-
|'''Net Property, Plant &  Equipment (PPE)'''
|                     18,766
|               18,962
|                   19,803
|                   20,338
|             20,887
|             21,451
|             22,030
|             22,625
|-
|'''Other Non-Current Assets'''
|                     15,097
|               20,439
|                   18,725
|                   21,290
|             24,207
|             27,523
|             31,294
|             35,581
|-
|'''Goodwill'''
|                     89,795
|               81,638
|                   93,556
|                   96,176
|             98,868
|           101,637
|           104,483
|           107,408
|-
|'''Total Non-Current Assets'''
|                   123,658
|            121,039
|               132,084
|               137,804
|           143,962
|           150,611
|           157,807
|           165,614
|-
|'''Total Assets'''
|                   174,896
|            182,018
|               187,378
|               196,723
|           205,429
|           214,825
|           224,983
|           235,985
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Accounts Payable'''
|                     36,378
|               37,874
|                   39,703
|                   41,609
|             43,440
|             45,351
|             47,346
|             49,430
|-
|'''Other Current Liabilities'''
|                       3,484
|                 3,586
|                     3,328
|                     3,260
|               3,193
|               3,127
|               3,063
|               3,001
|-
|'''Short term debt'''
|                       2,631
|                 3,766
|                   12,771
|                   34,500
|             31,395
|             28,569
|             25,998
|             23,658
|-
|'''Total Current Liabilities'''
|                     42,493
|              45,226
|                 55,802
|                 79,369
|             78,027
|             77,048
|             76,408
|             76,088
|-
|'''Long Term Debt'''
|                     32,635
|               29,985
|                   26,888
|                   24,468
|             22,266
|             20,262
|             18,438
|             16,779
|-
|'''Other Non-Current Liabilities'''
|                     36,488
|               32,784
|                   27,884
|                   24,399
|             21,349
|             18,680
|             16,345
|             14,302
|-
|'''Total Non-Current Liabilities'''
|                     69,123
|              62,769
|                 54,772
|                 48,867
|             43,615
|             38,942
|             34,784
|             31,081
|-
|'''Total Liabilities'''
|                   111,616
|            107,995
|               110,574
|               128,235
|           121,642
|           115,990
|           111,191
|           107,169
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Common Stock Equity'''
|                     63,278
|              74,023
|                 76,804
|                 68,488
|             83,787
|             98,835
|           113,792
|           128,815
|-
|'''Noncontrolling interests in  subsidiaries'''
|                               -  
|                       -  
|                           -  
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|'''Equity + Liabilities'''
|                   174,896
|            182,018
|               187,378
|               196,723
|           205,429
|           214,825
|           224,983
|           235,985
|}
== Valuation ==
=== Absolute Valuation ===
==== What's the expected return of an investment in the company? ====
The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative 22.83%, which equates to an annual return of negative 4.96%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £774 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is negative 4.96% per year or less, and Johnson & Johnson achieves its expected return level (of negative 4.96%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'suitable' one.
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? ====
{| class="wikitable"
|+Key inputs
!Description
!Value
!Commentary
|-
|Which valuation model do you want to use?
|Discounted cash flow
|Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more/most accurate is the absolute valuation approach, so that's the approach that we suggest using to determine the estimated value of the company.
|-
|Which type of discounted cash flow model do you want to use?
|Dividend discount model
|
|-
|How many distinct stage of growth do you want to use?
|Two stages
|For simplicity, we have used two stages here.
|-
|What is the transition between the two growth stages?
|Smooth
|We suggest a smooth transition, and, therefore, we suggest using the H-Model.
|-
|What is the expected lifespan of the business?
|Perpetual
|Again, for simplicity, we have assumed that the business continues forever.
|-
|What is the expected initial growth rate of dividends?
|5.93%
|
|-
|What is the expected constant growth rate in dividends?
|3%
|We note that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022) is around 3% per year for the global economy.
|-
|What is the half life of the initial dividend growth rate?
|10 years
|We suggest using 10 years.
|-
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|Stockhub
|Here, we have used the forecasts of Stockhub.
|-
|What is the required return on equity?
|9.98%
|For estimating the required return on equity, we used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which provides an economically grounded and relatively objective procedure for required return estimation, and, therefore, it has been widely used in valuation. The calculation of the required return on equity (and the reasons behind the calculation) can be found in the table below.
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|163.10 pence per share
|As at 3rd September 2023, the current value of Johnson & Johnson is $163.10 per share.
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and five years time
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years. Accordingly, we suggest that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
|}
==== Sensitivity analysis ====
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Johnson & Johnson investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
# The discount rate (the default rate is 9.98%).
# The initial growth rate (the default rate is 5.93%);
# The half life of the initial dividend growth rate (10 years); and
# The terminal growth rate (the default rate is 3%).
The impact of a 10% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Johnson & Johnson investment is shown in the table below.
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Johnson & Johnson investment expected return sensitivity analysis
!Main input
!10% worse
!Unchanged
!10% better
|-
|The default rate
|(32.48)%
|(22.83)%
|(9.95)%
|-
|The initial growth rate
|(28.73)%
|(22.83)%
|(16.62)%
|-
|The half life of the initial dividend growth rate
|(24.54)%
|(22.83)%
|(21.12)%
|-
|The terminal growth rate
|(24.50)%
|(22.83)%
|(21.01)%
|}
== Appendix ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Cost of equity
!Input
!Input value
!Additional information
|-
|Risk-free rate (%)
|4.297%
|Here, the risk free rate is the US 30 year treasury bond, and is calculated as at 3rd September 2023<ref>https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd30y?countrycode=bx</ref>. Research suggests that for the risk-free rate, it's best to use one that has the same or similar maturity to the estimated remaining lifespan of the company. Here, we have assumed that the estimated lifespan of the company is 30 years years or longer, so we have used the longest maturity, which is 30 years.
|-
|Beta
|0.7116
|Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more/most accurately predicts a future beta.
|-
|Equity risk premium (%)
|7.98%
|Research suggests that for the region of equity risk premium, it's best to use one that is the same or similar to the region of the beta market portfolio. Here, the region of the beta market portfolio is the world/global, so we have used the world/global region for the equity risk premium, and is calculated as at 5th January 2023.
|-
|Cost of equity (%)
|9.98%
|Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.
|}
=== Johnson & Johnson dividends ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Johnson & Johnson dividends
!Financial year
!Q1
!Q2
!Q3
!Q4
!Total
!Dividend growth rate (%)
|-
|2023
|1.13
|1.19
|1.19
|1.19
|4.7
|5.62%
|-
|2022
|1.06
|1.13
|1.13
|1.13
|4.45
|6.21%
|-
|2021
|1.01
|1.06
|1.06
|1.06
|4.19
|5.28%
|-
|2020
|0.95
|1.01
|1.01
|1.01
|3.98
|6.13%
|-
|2019
|0.90
|0.95
|0.95
|0.95
|3.75
|5.93%
|-
|2018
|0.84
|0.90
|0.90
|0.90
|3.54
|
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Dividend growth rate averages
!
!Median
!Mean
!Mode
|-
|Growth rate
|5.93%
|5.83%
|N/A
|}
Based on Johnson & Johnson's cash flows, the company is in the maturity stage of the business lifecycle.
{| class="wikitable"
|+Johnson & Johnson cash flows direction
!
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
|-
|Cash Flow from Operations
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
|-
|Cash Flow from Investing
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
|-
|Cash Flow from Financing
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
| style="background: red; color: white;" | -
|}
===Economic links to cash flow patterns ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Economic links to cash flow patterns
|-
!Cash flow type!!Introduction!!Growth!!Shake out!!Mature!!Decline
|-
|Operating|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | +/-|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-
|-
|Investing|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-
| style="background: green; color: white;" | +
|-
|Financing|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: green; color: white;" |+|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-|| style="background: red; color: white;" |-|| style="background: orange; color: white;" |+/-
|}
=== Beta risk profile ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Beta value
!Risk rating
|-
|style="background: green; color: white;" |0 to 0.50
|style="background: green; color: white;" | Low
|-
|style="background: orange; color: white;" | 0.50 to 1.50
|style="background: orange; color: white;" | Medium
|-
|style="background: red; color: white;" | 1.50 to 3.00
|style="background: red; color: white;" | High
|-
|style="background: purple; color: white;" | 3.00 and above
|style="background: purple; color: white;" | Extremely high
|}
=== Johnson & Johnson beta calculation ===
{| class="wikitable"
|+Johnson & Johnson beta calculation
!Date
!iShares MSCI World ETF unit price (USD)
!Johnson & Johnson plc share price (USD)<ref>https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ/history?period1=1535932800&period2=1693699200&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo&includeAdjustedClose=true</ref>
!iShares MSCI World ETF unit price change (%)
!Johnson & Johnson plc share price change (%)
|-
|01/10/2018
|85.25
|139.99
|
|
|-
|01/11/2018
|86.21
|146.9
|1%
|5%
|-
|01/12/2018
|78.87
|129.05
| -9%
| -12%
|-
|01/01/2019
|84.96
|133.08
|8%
|3%
|-
|01/02/2019
|87.49
|136.64
|3%
|3%
|-
|01/03/2019
|88.79
|139.79
|1%
|2%
|-
|01/04/2019
|92.09
|141.2
|4%
| 1%
|-
|01/05/2019
|86.76
|131.15
| -6%
| -7%
|-
|01/06/2019
|91.02
|139.28
|5%
|6%
|-
|01/07/2019
|91.86
|130.22
|1%
| -7%
|-
|01/08/2019
|89.84
|128.36
| -2%
| -1%
|-
|01/09/2019
|91.78
|129.38
|2%
| 1%
|-
|01/10/2019
|94.12
|132.04
|3%
|2%
|-
|01/11/2019
|96.76
|137.49
|3%
|4%
|-
|01/12/2019
|98.78
|145.87
|2%
|6%
|-
|01/01/2020
|97.73
|148.87
| -1%
|2%
|-
|01/02/2020
|89.67
|134.48
| -8%
| -10%
|-
|01/03/2020
|77.93
|131.13
| -13%
| -2%
|-
|01/04/2020
|86.36
|150.04
|11%
|14%
|-
|01/05/2020
|90.7
|148.75
|5%
| -1%
|-
|01/06/2020
|92.14
|140.63
|2%
| -5%
|-
|01/07/2020
|96.65
|145.76
|5%
|4%
|-
|01/08/2020
|102.96
|153.41
|7%
|5%
|-
|01/09/2020
|99.52
|148.88
| -3%
| -3%
|-
|01/10/2020
|96.53
|137.11
| -3%
| -8%
|-
|01/11/2020
|108.94
|144.68
|13%
|6%
|-
|01/12/2020
|112.41
|157.38
|3%
|9%
|-
|01/01/2021
|111.49
|163.13
| -1%
| 4%
|-
|01/02/2021
|114.27
|158.46
|2%
| -3%
|-
|01/03/2021
|118.49
|164.35
|4%
| 4%
|-
|01/04/2021
|123.61
|162.73
|4%
| -1%
|-
|01/05/2021
|125.6
|169.25
|2%
| 4%
|-
|01/06/2021
|126.57
|164.74
|1%
| -3%
|-
|01/07/2021
|128.83
|172.2
|2%
|5%
|-
|01/08/2021
|132.02
|173.13
|2%
|1%
|-
|01/09/2021
|126.46
|161.5
| -4%
| -7%
|-
|01/10/2021
|133.84
|162.88
|6%
|1%
|-
|01/11/2021
|131.1
|155.93
| -2%
| -4%
|-
|01/12/2021
|135.32
|171.07
|3%
|10%
|-
|01/01/2022
|128.32
|172.29
| -5%
|1%
|-
|01/02/2022
|124.58
|164.57
| -3%
| -4%
|-
|01/03/2022
|128.16
|177.23
|3%
| 8%
|-
|01/04/2022
|117.42
|180.46
| -8%
|2%
|-
|01/05/2022
|117.94
|179.53
|0%
| -1%
|-
|01/06/2022
|106.88
|177.51
| -9%
| -1%
|-
|01/07/2022
|115.57
|174.52
|8%
| -2%
|-
|01/08/2022
|110.28
|161.34
| -5%
| -8%
|-
|01/09/2022
|99.95
|163.36
| -9%
| 1%
|-
|01/10/2022
|107.42
|173.97
|7%
| 6%
|-
|01/11/2022
|115.44
|178
|7%
| 2%
|-
|01/12/2022
|109.25
|176.65
| -5%
| -1%
|-
|01/01/2023
|117.01
|163.42
|7%
| -7%
|-
|01/02/2023
|113.98
|153.26
| -3%
| -6%
|-
|01/03/2023
|117.67
|155
|3%
| 1%
|-
|01/04/2023
|119.79
|163.7
|2%
| 6%
|-
|01/05/2023
|118.6
|155.06
| -1%
| -5%
|-
|01/06/2023
|124.52
|165.52
|5%
| 7%
|-
|01/07/2023
|128.54
|167.53
|3%
| 1%
|-
|01/08/2023
|125.7
|161.68
| -2%
| -3%
|-
|01/09/2023
|125.91
|160.48
|0%
| -1%
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Johnson & Johnson beta and adjusted beta
!
!Johnson & Johnson
|-
|Beta
|0.5508
|-
|Adjusted beta
|0.7116
|}


== References ==
__INDEX__
__INDEX__
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