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==== What's the expected return of an investment in Pantheon Resources using the relative valuation approach? ====
==== What's the expected return of an investment in Pantheon Resources using the relative valuation approach? ====
Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Pantheon Resources over the next 12-months is 185%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £2,849 in one year time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.
Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Pantheon Resources over the next five years is ccc%, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £ccc in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.


==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ====
Line 1,266: Line 1,266:
|-
|-
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|Which type of multiple do you want to use?
|Price-to-book value
|EV/Proved + Probable Reserves
|The price-to-book value is really the only available commonly used value, so we suggest using that.
|Mainly given the relatively low amount of fixed capital expenditure (as a proportion of revenue) of companies within the consultancy industry (for example, currently, Alpha's fixed capital expenditure as a proportion of revenue is around 0.5%), we suggest valuing the company using the price/earnings ratio. However, we feel that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers (and, therefore, the different growth stages of its peers), the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the price/earnings to (earnings) growth multiple (or the PEG multiple, for short), rather than the price/earnings multiple. Another multiple which we think it's worth looking at is the (sales) growth-adjusted EV/sales, mainly because the multiple takes into account the different leverage levels of the peers (whereas the PEG does not, at least not directly; one is able to argue that the leverage levels are reflected indirectly in the earnings growth rates).
|-
|-
|In regards to the price-to-book value multiple, for the book value figure, which year to you want to use?
|In regards to the PEG multiple, for the earnings figure, which year to you want to use?
|Year 1
|Year 1
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the book value figure, we suggest using Year 1, which is on 12th September 2024.
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the earnings figure, we suggest using Year 1, which is 22 pence per share.
|-
|-
|In regards to the price-to-book value multipl, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|In regards to the PEG multiple, for the earnings growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use?
|1.54x
|Year 2 to 4, from now
|Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.54x, which is in-line with the multiples of Pantheon Resources's peers (for details on the peers can be found in the table below).
|We suggest that for the earnings growth figure, it's best to use Year 2 to 4, which equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%.
|-
|-
|What is the estimated compound annual growth rate of the book value between one year from now and the most recent value?
|In regards to the PEG multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?
|46.37%
|1.04x
|One year from now is 12th September 2024, and the most recent book value date is 31st December 2022. For simplicity, we based the estimate on the CAGR of Pantheon Resources over the last five years, which is 46.37%. The most recent value is $248,178,354 (as at 31st December 2022).
|Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.04x, which we believe is in-line with the multiples of Alpha's peers.
|-
|-
|What's the current market capitalisation of the company?
|Which financial forecasts to use?
|£205.44 million
|Stockhub
|As at 12th September 2023, the market capitalisation of Pantheon Resources Plc is £205.44 million.
|The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by us (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so we suggest using those.
|-
|What's the current value of the company?
|£197.46 million
|As at 4th September 2023, the current value of Pantheon Resources Plc is £197.46 million).
|-
|-
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?
|Between now and one year time
|Between now and one year time
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.
|Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time.
|-
|What's the FX rate?
|$1.25
|The current FX rate of GBPUSD is $1.25.
|}
|}
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
Line 1,366: Line 1,366:
|
|
|
|
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Local peers - BICS Best Fit (Algorithm)
!Name
!Ticker
!2Y Corr
!Mkt Cap (USD)
!BF P/E
!BF EV/EBITDA
!BF EV/EBIT
!BF EV/Rev
!LF P/BV
|-
|Pantheon Resources  PLC
|PANR LN
|
|248763255.1
| --
| --
| --
| --
|0.8599
|-
|EnQuest PLC
|ENQ LN
|0.2638
|342484769.1
|1.3755
|1.4467
|2.0561
|0.9302
|0.7375
|-
|Harbour Energy PLC
|HBR LN
|0.2596
|2362103778
|6.4952
|0.9316
|1.8074
|0.6763
|1.6824
|-
|Serica Energy PLC
|SQZ LN
|0.223
|1227222775
| --
| --
| --
| --
|1.7056
|-
|Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
|GKP LN
|0.2189
|250637412.4
|2.1706
|0.9949
|1.756
|0.6632
|0.453
|-
|OKEA ASA
|OKEA NO
|0.2091
|372011265.3
|3.0588
|0.3939
|0.5296
|0.2736
|1.8361
|-
|BLUENORD ASA
|BNOR NO
|0.2079
|1243069610
|7.3107
|2.866
|3.71
|1.9001
|1.7456
|-
|Tullow Oil PLC
|TLW LN
|0.1981
|666476192.9
|2.2878
|2.685
|3.7652
|2.0689
| --
|-
|DNO ASA
|DNO NO
|0.1976
|921463861.7
|5.3441
|1.3689
|1.9461
|0.8614
|0.7003
|-
|Genel Energy Plc
|GENL LN
|0.1923
|287304379.2
|0.4852
|1.2792
|9.3474
|0.8072
|0.6281
|-
|Capricorn Energy PLC
|CNE LN
|0.0962
|283070688.1
| --
| --
| --
| --
|0.2424
|-
| colspan="3" |Mean   (Including PANR LN)
|745873453.2
|4.0061
|1.4958
|3.1147
|1.0226
|1.0214
|-
| colspan="4" |Current Premium to Comps Mean
| --
| --
| --
| --
| -15.8058
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+North America peers - BICS Best Fit (Algorithm)
!Name
!Ticker
!2Y Corr
!Mkt Cap (USD)
!BF P/E
!BF EV/EBITDA
!BF EV/EBIT
!BF EV/Rev
!LF P/BV
|-
|Pantheon Resources  PLC
|PANR LN
|
|249401660.5
| --
| --
| --
| --
|0.8621
|-
|Bonterra Energy  Corp
|BNE CN
|0.2145
|201202900.1
|5.7932
| --
| --
|5.3528
|0.5485
|-
|Canacol Energy Ltd
|CNE CN
|0.2055
|291229291.5
|4.4749
|3.991
|6.2457
|2.7131
|0.8688
|-
|Journey Energy Inc
|JOY CN
|0.1826
|250649018.6
|10.0903
|3.2022
| --
| --
|1.1123
|-
|Gran Tierra Energy Inc
|GTE US
|0.1772
|242916614
|3.0209
|1.6716
|2.4108
|1.0112
|0.5344
|-
|Reconnaissance Energy Africa L
|RECO CN
|0.1628
|201636539
| --
| --
| --
| --
|3.7743
|-
|Evolution Petroleum Corp
|EPM US
|0.1535
|298752800.3
|9.5026
|5.339
|5.8633
|2.5077
|3.1245
|-
|Alvopetro Energy Ltd/CA
|ALV CN
|0.149
|258641189.1
|5.3166
| --
|5.022
|3.4221
|2.8451
|-
|Amplify Energy Corp
|AMPY US
|0.1002
|277732974.3
|1.8069
|4.1816
|6.8549
|1.2493
|0.7737
|-
|CGX Energy Inc
|OYL CN
|0.099
|239180966.5
| --
| --
| --
| --
|4.342
|-
|Global Tech Industries Group I
|GTII US
|0.0407
|290690567.5
| --
| --
| --
| --
|24.9919
|-
|Mean
|
|
|254730411.1
|4.407
|3.991
|5.6339
|2.3821
|1.4639
|-
|Current Premium to  Comps Mean
|
|
|
| --
| --
| --
| --
| -41.1063
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+Global peers - Global Industry Classification Standard
!Name
!Ticker
!2Y Corr
!Mkt Cap (USD)
!BF P/E
!BF EV/EBITDA
!BF EV/EBIT
!BF EV/Rev
!LF P/BV
|-
|Pantheon Resources  PLC
|PANR LN
|
|248743297.3
| --
| --
| --
| --
|0.8599
|-
|Jadestone Energy PLC
|JSE LN
|0.2226
|256103808.5
|12.1425
|0.8699
|1.7002
|0.3279
|1.7301
|-
|Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
|GKP LN
|0.2189
|250617304.2
|2.1706
|0.9949
|1.756
|0.6632
|0.4529
|-
|Genel Energy Plc
|GENL LN
|0.1924
|287281329.3
|0.4852
|1.2792
|9.3474
|0.8072
|0.6281
|-
|Journey Energy Inc
|JOY CN
|0.1826
|250722843.5
|10.0903
|3.2022
| --
| --
|1.1123
|-
|Gran Tierra Energy Inc
|GTE US
|0.1772
|242916614
|3.0209
|1.6716
|2.4108
|1.0112
|0.5344
|-
|Alvopetro Energy Ltd/CA
|ALV CN
|0.149
|258717367.9
|5.3166
| --
|5.022
|3.4221
|2.8451
|-
|Touchstone Exploration Inc
|TXP CN
|0.1276
|199349168.4
|16.338
|3.3236
|5.7614
|2.0963
|2.5903
|-
|La Francaise De L'energie SACA
|FDE FP
|0.1153
|227020391.8
|11.7018
|7.3477
|9.0049
|4.3978
|2.8113
|-
|Amplify Energy Corp
|AMPY US
|0.1002
|277732974.3
|1.8069
|4.1816
|6.8549
|1.2493
|0.7737
|-
|CGX Energy Inc
|OYL CN
|0.099
|239251413.6
| --
| --
| --
| --
|4.342
|-
|Capricorn Energy PLC
|CNE LN
|0.0962
|283047977.8
| --
| --
| --
| --
|0.2423
|-
|Coelacanth Energy Inc
|CEI CN
|0.0954
|260548386.6
| --
| --
| --
| --
|3.7122
|-
|Kistos Holdings PLC
|KIST LN
|0.0891
|253019056.7
| --
| --
| --
| --
|2.2992
|-
|Cohen Development Gas & Oil Lt
|CDEV IT
|0.0795
|211048552.1
| --
| --
| --
| --
|6.5187
|-
|Hindustan Oil Exploration Co L
|HOE IN
|0.0428
|255827680.6
| --
| --
| --
| --
|2.2394
|-
| colspan="3" |Mean   (Including PANR LN)
|250121760.4
|9.0748
|2.7631
|5.3661
|2.0603
|1.4934
|-
| colspan="4" |Current Premium to Comps Mean
| --
| --
| --
| --
| -42.4215
|}
{| class="wikitable"
|+North America - Global Industry Classification Standard
!Name
!Ticker
!2Y Corr
!Mkt Cap (USD)
!BF P/E
!BF EV/EBITDA
!BF EV/EBIT
!BF EV/Rev
!LF P/BV
|-
|Pantheon Resources  PLC
|PANR LN
|
|248743297.3
| --
| --
| --
| --
|0.8599
|-
|Saturn Oil & Gas  Inc
|SOIL CN
|0.2403
|289188348.4
|1.6041
|0.8074
| --
|0.6336
|0.6728
|-
|Bonterra Energy Corp
|BNE CN
|0.2145
|201232526.3
|5.7932
| --
| --
|5.3528
|0.5485
|-
|Canacol Energy Ltd
|CNE CN
|0.2055
|291272173.8
|4.4749
|3.991
|6.2457
|2.7131
|0.8688
|-
|Journey Energy Inc
|JOY CN
|0.1826
|250685925.6
|10.0903
|3.2022
| --
| --
|1.1123
|-
|Gran Tierra Energy Inc
|GTE US
|0.1772
|242916614
|3.0209
|1.6716
|2.4108
|1.0112
|0.5344
|-
|Reconnaissance Energy Africa L
|RECO CN
|0.1628
|201666229.1
| --
| --
| --
| --
|3.7743
|-
|Evolution Petroleum Corp
|EPM US
|0.1535
|298752800.3
|9.5026
|5.339
|5.8633
|2.5077
|3.1245
|-
|Alvopetro Energy Ltd/CA
|ALV CN
|0.149
|258679272.9
|5.3166
| --
|5.022
|3.4221
|2.8451
|-
|Lucero Energy Corp
|LOU CN
|0.132
|324574582.1
|6.5686
|2.2905
|4.647
|1.4365
|0.9152
|-
|Touchstone Exploration Inc
|TXP CN
|0.1276
|199319815.1
|16.338
|3.3236
|5.7614
|2.0963
|2.5903
|-
|Amplify Energy Corp
|AMPY US
|0.1002
|277732974.3
|1.8069
|4.1816
|6.8549
|1.2493
|0.7737
|-
|CGX Energy Inc
|OYL CN
|0.099
|239216184.9
| --
| --
| --
| --
|4.342
|-
|Coelacanth Energy Inc
|CEI CN
|0.0954
|260510022
| --
| --
| --
| --
|3.7122
|-
|San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
|SJT US
|0.08
|309016317.5
| --
| --
| --
| --
|81.0503
|-
|Empire Petroleum Corp
|EP US
|0.0627
|181790240
| --
| --
| --
| --
|9.6501
|-
|Mean   (Including PANR LN)
|
|
|254706082.7
|8.384
|2.7073
|5.6339
|1.945
|1.5358
|-
|Current Premium to Comps Mean
|
|
|
| --
| --
| --
| --
| -44.0125
|}
|}


Line 2,031: Line 1,371:
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):


# The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value (the default figure is 46.37%);
# The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple ccc);
# The price-to-book value multiple (the default multiple 1.57x); and
# Pantheon Resources Year 5 sales figure (the default figure is £ccc); and
# Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure (the default figure is $248,178,354, or £198,542,683 at the current exchange rate of $1.25).
# Pantheon Resources Year 6 sales growth rate (the default rate is ccc%).


The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment is shown in the table below.
The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment is shown in the table below.
Line 2,044: Line 1,384:
!50% better
!50% better
|-
|-
|The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value between one year ahead and the most recent value
|The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple
|113%
|ccc%
|185%
|ccc%
|266%
|ccc%
|-
|-
|The price-to-book value multiple
|Pantheon Resources Year 5 sales figure
|42%
|ccc%
|185%
|ccc%
|327%
|ccc%
|-
|-
|Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure
|Pantheon Resources Year 6 sales growth rate
|42%
|ccc%
|185%
|ccc%
|327%
|ccc%
|}
|}


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