Editing Safran SA
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The company is renowned for its commitment to innovation and excellence. Operating across aircraft propulsion, aircraft equipment, and defense segments, Safran delivers cutting-edge solutions that cater to the evolving needs of the aviation and defense industries worldwide. With a strong focus on research and development, the company continuously pushes the boundaries of technology, striving to enhance the performance, efficiency, and sustainability of its products while fostering collaborative industry partnerships to drive progress in these domains.<ref name=":0" /> | The company is renowned for its commitment to innovation and excellence. Operating across aircraft propulsion, aircraft equipment, and defense segments, Safran delivers cutting-edge solutions that cater to the evolving needs of the aviation and defense industries worldwide. With a strong focus on research and development, the company continuously pushes the boundaries of technology, striving to enhance the performance, efficiency, and sustainability of its products while fostering collaborative industry partnerships to drive progress in these domains.<ref name=":0" /> | ||
== Operations == | == Operations == | ||
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Sustainalytics conducts sustainability assessments for listed companies, evaluating their environmental, social, and governance performance. The assigned rating is derived from an ESG risk assessment, where the lowest score signifies the best extra-financial performance. | Sustainalytics conducts sustainability assessments for listed companies, evaluating their environmental, social, and governance performance. The assigned rating is derived from an ESG risk assessment, where the lowest score signifies the best extra-financial performance. | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ ESG Risk Assessment (Environment, Social, and Governance)<ref>https:// | |+ ESG Risk Assessment (Environment, Social, and Governance)<ref>https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SAF.PA/sustainability/</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
! Total ESG Risk Score | ! Total ESG Risk Score | ||
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==== Financial Performance Analysis ==== | ==== Financial Performance Analysis ==== | ||
Safran has experienced a downturn in its financial performance over the last few years, and several factors may have contributed to this decline. | Safran has experienced a downturn in its financial performance over the last few years, and several factors may have contributed to this decline. | ||
[[File:Safran metrics.png|center|thumb|500x500px | [[File:Safran metrics.png|center|thumb|500x500px]] | ||
The first significant cause contributing to Safran's recent poor results is the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a drastic shutdown in air traffic. As international travel and aviation activities were severely restricted, demand for aircraft engines and related products declined substantially, affecting Safran's revenue and profitability. | The first significant cause contributing to Safran's recent poor results is the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a drastic shutdown in air traffic. As international travel and aviation activities were severely restricted, demand for aircraft engines and related products declined substantially, affecting Safran's revenue and profitability. | ||
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== Valuation == | == Valuation == | ||
===What's the Current Value of Safran | ===What's the Current Value of Safran=== | ||
As of 26th July 2023, the stock of Safran closed at 144.82€ per share, demonstrating a steady recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The current stock price is approaching its historical peak value of 148.45€, which was recorded in November 2019, indicating positive momentum in the market. | As of 26th July 2023, the stock of Safran closed at 144.82€ per share, demonstrating a steady recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The current stock price is approaching its historical peak value of 148.45€, which was recorded in November 2019, indicating positive momentum in the market. | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
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! colspan="4" |Safran Current Valuation - July 2023 | ! colspan="4" |Safran Current Valuation - July 2023 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Share Price (@30/ | |Share Price (@30/06) | ||
|[€] | |[€] | ||
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In our analysis of Safran's valuation, we employed three distinct methods: | In our analysis of Safran's valuation, we employed three distinct methods: | ||
#'''Discounted Cashflow''': | #'''Discounted Cashflow''': At a discount rate of 8.7% and a long-term growth rate of 1.7%, the valuation of Safran share stands at '''138.36€.''' Safran's current stock price of 144.82€ exceeds the discounted cash flow (DCF) model valuation, indicating that it is currently '''overvalued''' as per the DCF analysis. | ||
#'''Trading Comps''': The negative income and EBITDA figures made it impractical to apply the P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios in this case. This straightforward analysis makes it evident that the company is considered '''overvalued''' when utilizing the PB ratio. The current market value per share is 144.82€, whereas our analysis, based on the PB ratio, estimates it to be '''101.87€.''' | #'''Trading Comps''': The negative income and EBITDA figures made it impractical to apply the P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios in this case. This straightforward analysis makes it evident that the company is considered '''overvalued''' when utilizing the PB ratio. The current market value per share is 144.82€, whereas our analysis, based on the PB ratio, estimates it to be '''101.87€.''' | ||
#'''Dividend Discount Model''': In 2019, Safran encountered challenges that led to the inability to pay dividends. However, the company has demonstrated a consistent track record of paying fair dividends in the preceding years. To assess Safran's valuation, we utilized the Gordon Growth Model (GGM) by projecting the past dividend growth rate to estimate the 2023 dividend. The GGM valuation resulted in a per-share value of '''19.67€'''. Assuming market efficiency, i.e. the current share price is correct, the adequate cost of equity of Safran would be '''2.64%'''. | #'''Dividend Discount Model''': In 2019, Safran encountered challenges that led to the inability to pay dividends. However, the company has demonstrated a consistent track record of paying fair dividends in the preceding years. To assess Safran's valuation, we utilized the Gordon Growth Model (GGM) by projecting the past dividend growth rate to estimate the 2023 dividend. The GGM valuation resulted in a per-share value of '''19.67€'''. Assuming market efficiency, i.e. the current share price is correct, the adequate cost of equity of Safran would be '''2.64%'''. | ||
== Appendix == | == Appendix == | ||
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=== '''Discounted Cashflow model (DCF)''' === | === '''Discounted Cashflow model (DCF)''' === | ||
==== Safran Unlevered Free Cash Flows ==== | ==== Safran Unlevered Free Cash Flows ==== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
!Period (t) | !Period (t) | ||
!2019A | !2019A | ||
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!2027P | !2027P | ||
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!EBITDA | !EBITDA | ||
Line 1,049: | Line 984: | ||
|34.40% | |34.40% | ||
|31.4% | |31.4% | ||
| | |31.4% | ||
| | |31.4% | ||
| | |31.4% | ||
| | |31.4% | ||
| | |31.4% | ||
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!EBIT (1-t) | !EBIT (1-t) | ||
Line 1,062: | Line 1,006: | ||
|977 | |977 | ||
|1,343 | |1,343 | ||
|1, | |1,338 | ||
|1, | |1,323 | ||
|1, | |1,298 | ||
|1, | |1,261 | ||
|1, | |1,210 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!D&A | !D&A | ||
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|802 | |802 | ||
|4,483 | |4,483 | ||
|4, | |4,398 | ||
|4, | |4,344 | ||
|4, | |4,320 | ||
|4, | |4,327 | ||
|4, | |4,362 | ||
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|'''Discount rate (r)''' | |||
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|8.7% | |8.7% | ||
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|'''PV of UFCFs''' | |||
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|4, | |4,047 | ||
|3, | |3,678 | ||
|3, | |3,366 | ||
|3, | |3,102 | ||
| | |2,878 | ||
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!Stage 1: Sum of present values | !Stage 1: Sum of present values | ||
|'''17, | |'''17,070''' | ||
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|- | |- | ||
!2022 FCF x (1+g) | !2022 FCF x (1+g) | ||
|4, | |4,436 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Terminal value in 2022 | !Terminal value in 2022 | ||
| | |63,559 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Stage 2: PV of TV | !Stage 2: PV of TV | ||
| | |41,927 | ||
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|- | |- | ||
!Enterprise value (stage 1 + 2) | !Enterprise value (stage 1 + 2) | ||
|''' | |'''58,997''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
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|- | |- | ||
!Stage 2: PV of TV | !Stage 2: PV of TV | ||
| | |41,171 | ||
|- | |- | ||
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|- | |- | ||
|Enterprise value (stage 1 + 2) | |||
|''' | |'''58,241''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
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|} | |} | ||
==== Equity | ==== Equity valiuations ==== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
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|- | |- | ||
!Equity value | !Equity value | ||
|''' | |'''138.36€''' | ||
|''' | |'''$136.59€''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
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The cost of equity of 2.64% for Safran represents the expected return or required rate of return that investors demand for holding the company's stock. A low cost of equity, such as 2.64%, indicates that investors perceive Safran as a relatively safe and stable investment. | The cost of equity of 2.64% for Safran represents the expected return or required rate of return that investors demand for holding the company's stock. A low cost of equity, such as 2.64%, indicates that investors perceive Safran as a relatively safe and stable investment. | ||
== | == Reference == | ||
__INDEX__ | __INDEX__ |