Safran SA

Safran S.A.

Type	Société Anonyme
Traded as	Euronext: SAF CAC 40 Component
Industry	Aerospace Defense
Predecessor	Snecma, Sagem
Founded	2005 (2005)
Headquarters	Paris , France
Key people	Olivier Andriès (CEO) Ross McInnes (Chairman)
Products	Aircraft engines, equipment, and interiors, defence electronics, avionics, navigation system, communications systems, satellites
Revenue	€24.64 billion (2019)
Operating income	€3.82 billion (2019)
Net income	€2.44 billion (2019)
Total assets	€40.62 billion (end 2018)
Total equity	€12.30 billion (End 2018)
Number of employees	81,000 (2020)
Subsidiaries	OEMServices Safran Aero Boosters Safran Aerosystems Safran Aircraft Engines Safran Cabin Safran Ceramics Safran Electrical & Power Safran Electronics & Defense Safran Helicopter Engines Safran Landing Systems Safran Nacelles Safran Passenger Solutions Safran Seats Safran Transmission Systems ArianeGroup (50% ownership)
Website	https://www.safran-group.com/

Safran is committed to catalyzing aviation safety and sustainability with innovative solutions.

The company is renowned for its commitment to innovation and excellence. Operating across aircraft propulsion, aircraft equipment, and defense segments, Safran delivers cutting-edge solutions that cater to the evolving needs of the aviation and defense industries worldwide. With a strong focus on research and development, the company continuously pushes the boundaries of technology, striving to enhance the performance, efficiency, and sustainability of its products while fostering collaborative industry partnerships to drive progress in these domains.

Assuming that Safran implements certain growth strategies and other relevant assumptions, the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is approximately 5.21%. This translates to an annual return of around 1.04%. In practical terms, a £100,000 investment in Safran is projected to grow to approximately £105,210 in five years' time.

Operations

Company history

• 1896: Maurice Mallet, Antonino Mélandri, and Paul Simard de Pitray found "Mallet, Mélandri et de Pitray," later merged with Zodiac in 2018.
• 1905: The Seguin brothers establish "Société des moteurs Gnome" for rotary airplane engines, leading to the merger with "Société des moteurs Le Rhône" in 1915, thus forming "Société des Moteurs Gnome & Rhône."
• 1911: Hispano-Suiza settles in Levallois, France, producing automobiles and later venturing into aircraft engine manufacturing.
• 1920: Messier Automobiles is founded, evolving into SFMA and later Messier, specializing in aircraft landing gear.
• 1930: Messier achieves a major milestone by developing the world's first automatic aircraft brake.
• 1938: Joseph Szydlowski establishes Turbomeca, specializing in aircraft engine compressors.
• 1945: Gnome & Rhône is nationalized and renamed Snecma (Société Nationale d'Etude et de Construction de Moteurs d'Aviation), consolidating most French aero-engine manufacturers.
• 1955: Turbomeca's "Artouste" engine powers the Alouette II, the world's first mass-produced turbine helicopter.
• 1961: Sagem achieves a significant milestone with the successful flight of the first French satellite, guided by their innovative inertial reference system.
• 1968: Hispano-Suiza joins Snecma, adding its expertise in aircraft equipment manufacturing, and shortly after, Messier also becomes part of Snecma.
• 1974: Snecma enters the commercial aviation engine market by partnering with General Electric Aircraft Engines to develop the CFM56 turbofan engine, one of the best-selling aircraft engines globally.
• 2005: The merger of Snecma and Sagem gives birth to Safran, a major aerospace, defense, and security group, unifying their strengths and expertise to provide innovative solutions to the industry.

What's the mission of the company?

Safran's purpose is to design, build, and support high-tech solutions that contribute to a safer, more sustainable world. They strive to make air transport environmentally friendly, comfortable, and accessible while addressing critical needs like defense and space exploration.

Offerings

Safran's core offerings are centered around two primary segments: (1) Aerospace Propulsion and (2) Electronics & Defense.

Aerospace Propulsion

The Aerospace Propulsion segment includes the production of aircraft engines, propulsion systems, landing gear, avionics systems, and aircraft interiors, along with providing after-sales services and aircraft electrical systems. Here we will present the different civil engines:

CFM56

The CFM International CFM56 series, hailed as the world's best-selling engine in aviation history, also known as the F108 in the U.S. military, represents a collaborative family of high-bypass turbofan aircraft engines produced by CFM International (CFMI). These engines offer a versatile thrust range, spanning from 18,500 to 34,000 lbf (82 to 150 kN), making them suitable for a wide array of aviation applications.

LEAP ("Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion")

The CFM International LEAP is a cutting-edge high-bypass turbofan engine manufactured by CFM International, which is a 50-50 joint venture between GE Aviation from the United States and Safran Aircraft Engines (formerly Snecma) from France. As an evolutionary successor to the CFM56 engine, the LEAP engine directly competes with the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G to provide powerful propulsion options for narrow-body aircraft. With its advanced technology and design, the LEAP engine offers exceptional performance and efficiency, positioning itself as a leading choice for modernizing and enhancing the capabilities of commercial aircraft.

LEAP-X & CFM56-5/7 comparison

The LEAP (Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion) series engine, an upgraded version of the CFM56-5/7 series. This engine is designed to provide power for the next generation of single-aisle commercial jets.

Engine series	LEAP-X	CFM56-5/7
Fan	18 blades	36 blades
LPC	3 stages	4/3 stages
HPC	10 stages	9 stages
Combustor	Twin Annular Premixing Swirler (TAPS II)	conventional
HPT	2 stages	1 stage
LPT	7/5 stages	4 stages
Total core stages	22 stages	18 stages

Model	Application	Thrust range	In service
LEAP-1A	Airbus A320 neo family	24,500-35,000 lbf (109-156 kN)	Aug 2016
LEAP-1B	Boeing 737 MAX family	23,000-28,000 lbf (100-120 kN)	May 2017
LEAP-1C	COMAC C919	27,980-31,000 lbf (124.5-137.9 kN)	2020/2021

Model	Fan diameter	Bypass ratio	Weight (wet)	Thrust to weight (wet) ratio
LEAP-1A	78 in (198 cm)	11:1	6.632 lb (3.008 kg)	5.3
LEAP-1B	69.4 in (176 cm)	9:1	6.128 lb (2780 kg)	4.5
LEAP-1C	78 in (198 cm)	11:1	6.632 lb (3.008 kg)	4.6

Rival comparison

The primary competitor engines of the LEAP is the Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G (also known as the PurePower PW1000G) series. The PW1000G engine is part of Pratt & Whitney's geared turbofan (GTF) technology, which aims to improve fuel efficiency, reduce emissions, and lower noise levels. Both the LEAP and PW1000G engines are designed to power the next generation of single-aisle commercial aircraft and are competitors in the market for narrow-body jet engines.

Engine series	LEAP-X	PW1000G
Fan	18 blades	20 blades (PW1100G)
Fan gear	-	The reduction gear box (5 planetary gears)
LPC	3 stages	3/2 stages
HPC	10 stages	8 stages
Combustor	Twin Annular Premixing Swirler (TAPS II)	Lean-burn (TalonX)
HPT	2 stages	2 stages
LPT	7/5 stages	3 stages
Total core stages	22 stages	16 stages

Criteria	LEAP-X Engine	PW1000G Engine
Propulsive Efficiency	Larger fan diameter allows higher bypass ratio, leading to improved propulsive efficiency and fuel savings.	Gear system optimizes fan and LP spool rotation, potentially enhancing propulsive efficiency.
Thermal Efficiency	New generation combustion system and advanced materials increase thermal efficiency. Higher operating temperatures require additional cooling systems and materials.	New generation combustion system and advanced materials improve thermal efficiency. Higher operating temperatures necessitate additional cooling systems and materials.
Noise Reduction	Designed with noise reduction in mind. Centrifugal FOD ejection system helps protect against debris-induced noise.	Gear system allows for lower fan rotation speeds, contributing to noise reduction.

Electronics

Avionics and Flight Control Systems: Safran leads in avionics development, offering advanced flight control systems, fly-by-wire technology, and cockpit displays for commercial and military aircraft. Their systems ensure precise control, enhancing safety and pilot awareness. Renowned flight management systems optimize paths, reducing fuel consumption and operational costs for airlines.

Electro-Optics and Infrared Systems: Safran excels in electro-optics and infrared systems, enabling day and night vision for defense and security applications. These systems support surveillance, reconnaissance, and target acquisition, providing critical data in challenging environments. Widely used in UAVs, Safran's technology enhances intelligence gathering.

Communication and Data Security: In the Electronics & Defense sector, Safran offers secure communication and data solutions for military and government entities. Encrypted systems protect sensitive information, guarding against cyber threats. Safran's commitment to data security ensures critical military communications are safeguarded in an interconnected world.

Defense

Navigation and Identification Systems: Safran's defense solutions encompass advanced navigation systems that provide accurate and reliable positioning for military platforms, ensuring precise mission execution and effective deployment of resources. Additionally, their identification systems play a pivotal role in friend-or-foe recognition, minimizing the risk of friendly fire incidents during operations and enhancing overall combat safety.

Optronics and Targeting Systems: Safran's optronics solutions are deployed across various military platforms, offering superior target acquisition and tracking capabilities. These systems, integrated into armored vehicles, helicopters, and UAVs, provide enhanced situational awareness and increased accuracy for precision strikes, thus bolstering the effectiveness of military missions.

Drone Solutions: Safran's drone technologies cater to both military and civilian applications. Their unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offer intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities for defense operations, providing real-time data and enhancing the tactical decision-making process. Safran's expertise in drone technology makes them a key player in the rapidly evolving field of unmanned systems.

Research and development

Open rotor

Safran's commitment to research and development is exemplified by its groundbreaking work on the Open Rotor, an innovative aircraft engine design. The Open Rotor project, featuring two counter-rotating propellers and no thrust reversers, represents a transformative approach to enhance fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions in the aviation sector. By pushing the boundaries of technology and collaborating with industry partners, Safran has demonstrated the feasibility of the Open Rotor concept through successful testing and research, positioning itself at the forefront of sustainable aviation solutions.

Safran's dedication to the Open Rotor project underscores its vision for the future of aviation, striving to meet the industry's environmental challenges head-on. As the company continues to explore and develop this revolutionary engine architecture, Safran's R&D efforts highlight its commitment to driving innovation and shaping a greener, more sustainable aviation landscape for generations to come.

Hydrogen engine

CFM International, in collaboration with Airbus, is at the forefront of pioneering hydrogen combustion technology in the aviation industry. The joint effort aims to ground and flight test a hydrogen-fueled direct combustion engine, with the ultimate goal of developing a zero-emission aircraft for commercial service by 2035. By modifying the GE PassportTM turbofan engine to run on hydrogen and using an A380 flying testbed equipped with liquid hydrogen tanks, the partnership showcases a commitment to environmental sustainability and making significant strides towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions in aviation.

The groundbreaking collaboration between CFM International and Airbus represents a crucial step in ushering in a new era of hydrogen-powered flight. With both companies' expertise and resources combined, they form an ideal team to successfully demonstrate hydrogen propulsion capabilities, reaffirming the aviation industry's dedication to environmentally friendly solutions. This ambitious project not only aligns with Airbus' commitment to net-zero carbon emissions but also highlights the industry's collective efforts to accelerate the development and adoption of hydrogen technology for a greener and more sustainable aviation future.

ESG Performance and Sustainability Analysis

Sustainalytics conducts sustainability assessments for listed companies, evaluating their environmental, social, and governance performance. The assigned rating is derived from an ESG risk assessment, where the lowest score signifies the best extra-financial performance.

ESG Risk Assessment (Environment, Social, and Governance)

Total ESG Risk Score	23 (Medium risk)
Environmental Risk Score	6.9
Social Risk Score	10.2
Governance Risk Score	5.8

In the "Aerospace & Defense" sector, Safran has achieved an impressive rank, securing the 3rd position out of 89 companies. Notably, among companies with a market capitalization between $51 and $103 billion, Safran holds the 1st rank. This progress signifies an improvement from 2019, when Safran was ranked 6th out of 82 companies in the same sector.

Market

Total Addressable Market

The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Safran SA is defined as the global aerospace and defense market. According to industry reports, the global aerospace and defense market was valued at $855.62 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $1076.56 billion by 2027, experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%.

Serviceable Available Market

The Serviceable Available Market (SAM) for Safran SA is focused on the commercial aviation segment within the global aerospace and defense market. The Commercial Aviation Market is anticipated to experience significant growth, projected to increase from $218.97 billion in 2023 to $271.96 billion by 2028, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.43% during the forecast period from 2023 to 2028.

Serviceable Obtainable Market

The Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for Safran SA is focused on the commercial aviation engine market, which represents a significant segment within the broader commercial aviation industry. The global aircraft engine market size is projected to hit USD 112.61 billion by 2029, with a forecasted Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.87% during the forecast period from 2023 to 2028. The market size stood at USD 54.70 billion in 2022.

Competition

Competitors

	Safran Aircraft Engines	Spirit AeroSystems	GE Aerospace	Pratt & Whitney	AECC Aviation Power
	Safran Aircraft Engines (formerly known as Snecma Moteurs) is a company that designs, develops, produces and markets engines for civil and military aircraft.	Spirit AeroSystems is a manufacturer and supplier of aerostructures for commercial and defense aerospace programs.	GE Aerospace (formerly known as GE Aviation, Smiths Aerospace, General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE), also known as GE Aviation Systems) is a manufacturer and service provider of jet engines.	Pratt & Whitney is a company that specializes in the design, manufacture, and service of aircraft engines and auxiliary power units	AECC Aviation Power (中国航发动力股份有限公司, formerly known as AVIC Aviation Engine (中国航发西安航空发动机有限公司)) is an aerospace company that develops, produces, and repairs large, medium and small military and civilian aviation engines, and gas turbine power units for large ships.
Founding Date	1997	2005	1917	1925	1993
Type	Subsidiary	Public	Subsidiary	Subsidiary	Public
Tags	Manufacturing & Industrial	Manufacturing & Industrial	Manufacturing & Industrial	Manufacturing & Industrial	Manufacturing & Industrial
	aerospace	aerospace	aerospace	aerospace	aerospace
	aviation	aviation	aviation	aviation	aviation
	engines	defense	engines	engines	engines
		distribution	mechanical components		machinery
		engines			solar
		mechanical components
Locations	Paris, FR (HQ)	Wichita, US (HQ)	Evendale, US (HQ)	East Hartford, US (HQ)	Xi'an, CN (HQ)
	Zaventem, BE	Montoir De Bretagne, FR	Bromont, CA	Enfield, CA
	Chengdu, CN	Subang, MY	Suzhou, CN	Longueuil, CA
	Guiyang, CN	Casablanca, MA	Prague Letnany, CZ	Mirabel, CA
	Shanghai, CN	Belfast, GB	Veresegyház, HU	Mississauga, CA
	Suzhou, CN	Prestwick, GB	Seoul, KR	Ottawa, CA
	Tianjin, CN	Dallas, US	Dzierzoniow, PL	Beijing, CN
Employees	12,306	18,235	29,476	19,865	34,195

Competitive advantage

Safran's competitive advantages lie in its technological expertise, diverse product portfolio, global presence, strong partnerships, sustainability focus, and financial stability, positioning the company as a leading aerospace and defense solutions provider.

Team

Board of Directors

Chief Executive Officer and Director

Olivier Andriès' illustrious career has seen him play significant roles in prominent companies, encompassing distinguished positions at the French Ministry of Finance's Treasury department and the prestigious Lagardère group. In the year 2000, he embarked on a transformative journey when he joined Airbus as Vice President, subsequently elevating to the position of Executive Vice President of Strategy. His strategic vision and exceptional performance caught the industry's attention, propelling him further along the path of success.

In 2008, Olivier Andriès set his sights on new horizons, making a strategic move to Safran, where he assumed the crucial role of Executive Vice President of Strategy and Development. His leadership prowess was undeniable, leading to his subsequent appointment as CEO of Turbomeca and Safran Aircraft Engines, solidifying his status as a key decision-maker within the organization. Recognized for his unparalleled acumen and transformative approach, Andriès was the natural choice to be appointed as Safran's next CEO in 2019, with his tenure set to begin on January 1st, 2021.

Chairman of the Board

Ross McInnes, born in 1954, holds the distinction of having dual French and Australian nationality. His distinguished career has seen him play significant roles in prominent companies, making valuable contributions in various executive positions. After Oxford University, he started his career in 1977 at Kleinwort Benson, gaining valuable experience in London and Rio de Janeiro. In 1980, he joined Continental Bank (now Bank of America), contributing significantly in corporate finance in Chicago and Paris.

Ross McInnes joined Eridania Beghin-Say in 1989, becoming CFO in 1991 and a Board member in 1999. He later joined Thomson-CSF (now Thales) in 2000 as EVP and CFO, playing a crucial role in the group's transformation.

Having demonstrated exceptional leadership and expertise, Ross McInnes joined Safran in March 2009 as Executive Vice President for Economic and Financial Affairs. His outstanding performance led to his appointment as a member of the Executive Board from July 2009 to April 2011 and later as Deputy Chief Executive Officer until April 2015. On April 23, 2015, he was appointed Chairman of the Board of Safran.

Financials

Historic

Most recent year

In fiscal year 2022, Safran reported a significant increase in revenue, reaching €19.52 billion, which represents a remarkable growth of approximately 29% compared to the previous year's revenue of €15.13 billion. However, despite the revenue surge, the company also incurred a net loss of €2.46 billion during the same period.

Previous Four Years

Over the past four years, Safran's revenue has fluctuated, starting at $25.1 billion in 2019 and reaching $19.52 billion in 2022. During this period, the net income varied significantly, from $2.45 billion to a loss of $2.46 billion. These fluctuations reflect the challenges and changes in the aerospace industry.

Financial Performance Analysis

Safran has experienced a downturn in its financial performance over the last few years, and several factors may have contributed to this decline.

Safran Financial Performance Summary (2019-2022)

The first significant cause contributing to Safran's recent poor results is the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a drastic shutdown in air traffic. As international travel and aviation activities were severely restricted, demand for aircraft engines and related products declined substantially, affecting Safran's revenue and profitability.

Another factor impacting Safran's financials is the increase in costs, particularly in raw materials. The rising costs of essential inputs for their manufacturing processes put pressure on their profit margins, making it challenging to maintain previous levels of profitability.

Additionally, currency fluctuations between the euro and the US dollar have played a role in the company's adverse results. Safran operates in a global market and conducts business in multiple currencies. Fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to uncertain revenues and costs, making financial planning and forecasting more challenging.

It's worth noting that these challenges are not unique to Safran alone, as the aerospace industry, like many others, has been significantly affected by the global economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.

Risks

Market Risk

Demand Fluctuations: Changes in demand for commercial aircraft, defense equipment, and services due to economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements.

Cyclical Nature: Variations in sales and profits as the aerospace and defense industry experiences ups and downs in the economic cycle.

Regulatory and Political Risk

Export Control Regulations: Compliance with export controls and potential restrictions on selling certain technologies and equipment to specific countries.

Political Instability: Geopolitical tensions, conflicts, or changes in government policies in regions where Safran operates affecting business operations.

Environmental Regulations: Compliance with environmental regulations that may lead to additional costs for Safran and its operations.

Operational Risk

Supply Chain Disruptions: Risks associated with the complexity of Safran's supply chain for aerospace and defense products, leading to potential disruptions or delays.

Project Execution: Challenges in executing large-scale projects that could result in cost overruns and delays.

Safety Incidents: Risks associated with any safety-related incidents involving Safran's products or services, potentially leading to reputational damage and legal liabilities.

Technological and Competitive Risk

Rapid Technological Changes: The need to adapt to new technologies and maintain a competitive edge in the fast-paced aerospace and defense industry.

Intense Competition: Facing competition from both established and emerging companies in the aerospace and defense industry.

Cybersecurity Risk: Vulnerability to cyberattacks and data breaches due to the increasing reliance on digital technologies in aerospace and defense.

Valuation

What's the Current Value of Safran?

As of 26th July 2023, the stock of Safran closed at 144.82€ per share, demonstrating a steady recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The current stock price is approaching its historical peak value of 148.45€, which was recorded in November 2019, indicating positive momentum in the market.

Safran Current Valuation - July 2023
Share Price (@30/07)	[€]		144.82
Shares Outstanding	[#M]		426.5
Equity Value	[€B]		61.77
Add: Net Debt at Dec. 31, 2022	[€M]		14
Enterprise Value	[€B]		61.78

In our analysis of Safran's valuation, we employed three distinct methods:

1. Discounted Cashflow: With a discount rate of 8.7% and a long-term growth rate of 1.7%, the Perpetuity approach values Safran shares at 152.32€, while the EBITDA approach results in a valuation of 140.35€. Given Safran's current stock price of 144.82€, it appears undervalued relative to the discounted cash flow (DCF) model valuation.
2. Trading Comps: The negative income and EBITDA figures made it impractical to apply the P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios in this case. This straightforward analysis makes it evident that the company is considered overvalued when utilizing the PB ratio. The current market value per share is 144.82€, whereas our analysis, based on the PB ratio, estimates it to be 101.87€.
3. Dividend Discount Model: In 2019, Safran encountered challenges that led to the inability to pay dividends. However, the company has demonstrated a consistent track record of paying fair dividends in the preceding years. To assess Safran's valuation, we utilized the Gordon Growth Model (GGM) by projecting the past dividend growth rate to estimate the 2023 dividend. The GGM valuation resulted in a per-share value of 19.67€. Assuming market efficiency, i.e. the current share price is correct, the adequate cost of equity of Safran would be 2.64%.

What's the expected return of an Investment in the Company?

Based on our DCF model and the current market value, the Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in Safran over the next five years is approximately 5.21%. In practical terms, this means that a £1,000 investment in Safran is projected to grow to £1,052.10 in five years' time.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and achieves its expected return level (of 5.21%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'unsuitable' one.

Monte Carlo Simulations

Data

Introducing our cutting-edge Monte Carlo simulation for Safran's stock price analysis! By harnessing the power of this advanced computational method, we aim to provide you with invaluable insights into the potential behavior of Safran's stocks over time.

Historical price of Safran's equity

Our Monte Carlo simulation involves running thousands of random simulations based on a variety of input variables, including historical price data, volatility, and other essential market factors. Through this approach, we generate a comprehensive probability distribution of possible outcomes, enabling you to assess the potential risk and returns associated with investing in Safran.

Logarithmic distribution of past prices

Simulations

With our simulation, you can make data-driven decisions and gain a deeper understanding of the uncertainty surrounding the stock's performance. Embrace the future of equity research and explore the vast range of possibilities to optimize your investment strategies effectively.

Price paths of Safran's stock 50 days in the future for 100 simulations

Through our Monte Carlo simulations, we have the ability to visualize numerous paths for 100 simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcomes. However, to gain a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the results, we recommend running a larger number of simulations. By doing so, we can effectively construct probability distributions that highlight the likelihood of Safran's stock price being at certain levels. This will provide a more accurate and insightful analysis, enabling you to make informed decisions with confidence.

Final stock price distribution in 50 days for 1,000,000 simulations

From this analysis, it becomes evident that the current valuation on the 28th of July 2023, at 147.98€, appears to be somewhat inflated when we examine the Gaussian curve. The distribution of prices is skewed towards the left side of the curve, indicating a higher concentration of lower price points.

Please note that we utilized the article "Monte Carlo Simulations for Stock Price Predictions [Python]" authored by Elias Melul as a reference to develop our Python code for running the simulations. You can find the complete Python code in the appendix section.

Appendix

Financial statements

Income Statement (In €)

Year end date	TTM	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019
Total Revenue	17,039,000	19,523,000	15,133,000	16,631,000	25,098,000
Cost of Revenue	8,628,000	10,145,000	7,855,000	9,016,000	13,581,000
Gross Profit	8,411,000	9,378,000	7,278,000	7,615,000	11,517,000
Operating Expense	6,456,000	6,663,000	6,098,000	6,193,000	7,943,000
Operating Income	1,955,000	2,715,000	1,180,000	1,422,000	3,574,000
Net Non Operating Interest Income Expense	-80,000	-39,000	-103,000	-2,000	-19,000
Pretax Income	-5,722,000	-3,120,000	268,000	570,000	3,474,000
Tax Provision	-1,356,000	-694,000	200,000	184,000	962,000
Net Income Common Stockholders	-4,393,000	-2,459,000	43,000	352,000	2,447,000
Diluted NI Available to Com Stockholders	-4,393,000	-2,459,000	43,000	352,000	2,447,000
Basic EPS	-	-5.76	0.10	0.83	5.69
Diluted EPS	-	-5.76	0.10	0.80	5.63
Basic Average Shares	-	426,681	426,650	426,036	429,723
Diluted Average Shares	-	440,160	440,087	440,460	434,977
Total Operating Income as Reported	1,584,000	-	864,000	927,000	3,837,000
Total Expenses	15,084,000	16,808,000	13,953,000	15,209,000	21,524,000
Net Income from Continuing & Discontinued Operation	-4,393,000	-2,459,000	43,000	352,000	2,447,000
Normalized Income	804,692	-1,833,568	304,660	787,440	2,421,692
Interest Income	20,000	67,000	15,000	22,000	48,000
Interest Expense	85,000	94,000	109,000	108,000	120,000
Net Interest Income	-80,000	-39,000	-103,000	-2,000	-19,000
EBIT	-5,637,000	-3,026,000	377,000	678,000	3,594,000
EBITDA	-3,771,000	-	-	-	-
Reconciled Cost of Revenue	8,628,000	10,145,000	7,855,000	9,016,000	13,581,000
Reconciled Depreciation	1,866,000	1,615,000	1,642,000	1,565,000	1,589,000
Net Income from Continuing Operation Net Minority Interest	-4,393,000	-2,459,000	43,000	352,000	2,447,000
Total Unusual Items Excluding Goodwill	-6,812,000	-804,000	-356,000	-643,000	35,000
Total Unusual Items	-6,812,000	-804,000	-356,000	-643,000	35,000
Normalized EBITDA	3,041,000	-607,000	2,375,000	2,886,000	5,148,000
Tax Rate for Calcs	0	0	0	0	0
Tax Effect of Unusual Items	-1,614,308	-178,568	-94,340	-207,560	9,692

Balance Sheet (In €)

Year end date	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019
Total Assets	46,828,000	41,716,000	39,531,000	42,808,000
Total Liabilities Net Minority Interest	35,962,000	28,446,000	26,781,000	30,060,000
Total Equity Gross Minority Interest	10,866,000	13,270,000	12,750,000	12,748,000
Total Capitalization	15,610,000	17,750,000	16,363,000	15,507,000
Common Stock Equity	10,411,000	12,841,000	12,349,000	12,371,000
Capital Lease Obligations	587,000	609,000	608,000	729,000
Net Tangible Assets	-2,679,000	-609,000	-1,387,000	-2,307,000
Working Capital	-2,479,000	755,000	-838,000	-2,804,000
Invested Capital	16,781,000	19,373,000	18,758,000	18,926,000
Tangible Book Value	-2,679,000	-609,000	-1,387,000	-2,307,000
Total Debt	6,957,000	7,141,000	7,017,000	7,284,000
Net Debt	-	1,285,000	2,662,000	3,923,000
Share Issued	427,246	427,242	427,236	427,234
Ordinary Shares Number	424,559	426,786	426,917	424,684
Treasury Shares Number	2,687	456.165	319.284	2,550

Cash Flow (In €)

Year end date	TTM	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019
Operating Cash Flow	3,478,000	3,545,000	2,436,000	1,866,000	3,145,000
Investing Cash Flow	-870,000	-1,288,000	-738,000	-799,000	-1,105,000
Financing Cash Flow	-368,000	-815,000	-268,000	68,000	-1,740,000
End Cash Position	6,167,000	6,687,000	5,247,000	3,747,000	2,632,000
Changes in Cash	2,240,000	1,442,000	1,430,000	1,135,000	300,000
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes	41,000	2,000	70,000	-20,000	2,000
Beginning Cash Position	3,927,000	5,247,000	3,747,000	2,632,000	2,330,000
Other Cash Adjustment Outside Change in Cash	-4,000	-4,000	-	-	-
Capital Expenditure	-834,000	-879,000	-756,000	-793,000	-1,162,000
Issuance of Capital Stock	0	0	1,000	-	-
Issuance of Debt	509,000	510,000	2,146,000	1,595,000	24,000
Repayment of Debt	-613,000	-671,000	-1,367,000	-778,000	-875,000
Repurchase of Capital Stock	0	-270,000	-73,000	-	-
Free Cash Flow	2,644,000	2,666,000	1,680,000	1,073,000	1,983,000

Discounted Cashflow model (DCF)

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Discount rate (%)	8.2%	The application of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) formula was used to compute the discount rate for future cash flows.
Long term growth rate (%)	1.7%	We used the growth rate of you Dividend Discount Model.
Corporate Tax Rate (%)	25%	According to the new French legislation, the Corporate Tax Rate should be at 25% as from 1 January 2022.

For this model, we use the WACC model to compute the discount rate for the future cash flows.

Cost of equity	8.68%
Cost of debt	5.00%
Tax rate	25.00%
Debt	6,957
Equity (Current market cap)	65,010
D/(D+E)	10%
E/(D+E)	90%
WACC	8.20%

Safran Unlevered Free Cash Flows

Period (t)	2019A	2020A	2021A	2022A	2023P	2024P	2025P	2026P	2027P
EBITDA	5830	2962	2825	3,498	3,673	3,857	4,049	4,252	4,464
EBIT	4,695	1,706	1,489	1,958	1,950	1,928	1,892	1,838	1,763
Tax rate	26.30%	27.50%	34.40%	31.4%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
EBIT (1-t)	3,460	1,237	977	1,343	1,462	1,446	1,419	1,378	1,322
D&A	1135	1256	1336	1,540	1,723	1,928	2,157	2,414	2,701
NWC	2,804	838	(755)	2,479	2,256	2,053	1,868	1,700	1,547
Capital expenditures	(1,162)	(793)	(756)	(879)	(919)	(960)	(1,003)	(1,048)	(1,095)
Unlevered free cash flows (UFCF)	6,237	2,538	802	4,483	4,523	4,467	4,441	4,444	4,475
Discount rate (r)					8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
PV of UFCFs					4,180	3,816	3,506	3,242	3,018
Stage 1: Sum of present values	17,762

Terminal value - growth in perpetuity approach

Long term growth rate	1.7%
2022 FCF x (1+g)	4,551
Terminal value in 2022	69,979
Stage 2: PV of TV	47,187
Enterprise value (stage 1 + 2)	64,949

Terminal value - EBITDA multiple approach

EBITDA multiple	14.0x
Terminal value in 2022	62,413
Stage 2: PV of TV	42,085
Enterprise value (stage 1 + 2)	59,847

Net debt

Data as of:	29/07/2023
Net debt	(14)

Equity valuations

	Perpetuity approach	EBITDA approach
Equity value	152.32 €	140.35 €

Sensitivity analysis

		Constant Growth rate
		0.7%	1.2%	1.7%	2.2%	2.7%
WACC	7.0%	162.61 €	173.56 €	186.49 €	202.31 €	221.70 €
	7.4%	152.93 €	162.42 €	173.51 €	186.89 €	203.02 €
	7.8%	144.35 €	152.64 €	162.22 €	173.66 €	187.26 €
	8.2%	136.68 €	143.97 €	152.32 €	162.20 €	173.80 €
	8.6%	129.79 €	136.24 €	143.58 €	152.17 €	162.16 €
	9.0%	123.56 €	129.30 €	135.78 €	143.32 €	151.99 €
	9.4%	117.90 €	123.04 €	128.80 €	135.45 €	143.04 €

Trading Comparables (Comps)

As mentioned earlier, the negative income and EBITDA figures make it impractical to use the P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios in this case. Different valuation approaches and more comprehensive analyses are needed to accurately assess the company's financial health and potential.

For that matter we decided to use the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio, we collected the PB ratio for similar companies operting in the aerospace and defense sector. Rolls-Royce having a negative PB ratio, we left it out of our analysis.

Company Name	PB ratio
Airbus SE (EPA: AIR)	7.32
Thales Group (EPA: HO)	3.86
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (LSE: RR.)	-2.75
General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)	3.8
Average	4.99
Median	3.86

We can then deduce the price per share using the median PB ratio.

Calculating the price based on PB ratio
Price	Shares Outstanding	Book value	Total assets	Intangible assets	Total liabilities
101.87 €	426,500,000	11,256,000,000.00 €	46,828,000,000.00 €	8,096,000,000.00 €	27,476,000,000.00 €

Based on this straightforward analysis, it becomes evident that the company is deemed overvalued, given its current market value per share of 144.82€ in contrast to the value of 101.87€ calculated through our analysis. However, if we solely rely on the Airbus PB (Price-to-Book) ratio, the estimated price per share would be 193.19 €, indicating an even higher level of overvaluation in this instance.

This demonstrates the limited usefulness of the Comps analysis in accurately determining the company's true value and highlights the need for incorporating multiple valuation metrics and methodologies to gain a more comprehensive understanding of its market worth.

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Equity valuation

In the following table, we present the key values used in a DDM (Dividend Discount Model) analysis, including the CAPM model, risk-free rate of return, beta, market rate of return, and the corresponding cost of equity.

CAPM model	Values
Risk-free rate of return (Euro short-term rate (€STR))	3.41%
Beta (5Y Monthly, levered)	1.35
Market rate of return (European Stocks Portfolio)	7.31%
Cost of equity	8.7%

The graphical representation below illustrates the dividend history of Safran over the past years, showcasing the annual dividends paid, including the notable occurrence of zero dividends in the year 2019.

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Dividend per share	0.62	0.96	1.12	1.20	1.38	1.52	1.60	1.82	0.00	0.43	0.50	1.35

To evaluate Safran's valuation, we applied the Gordon Growth Model (GGM), projecting the historical dividend growth rate from 2011 to 2018 to estimate the current growth rate starting from 2022. By doing so, we can make an estimation of the 2023 dividend.

Period	/	2011- 2012	2012-2013	2013-2014	2014-2015	2015-2016	2016-2017	2017-2018
Dividend Growth Rate	/	0.55	0.17	0.07	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.14
Average Growth Rate	0.18
CAGR	0.14
Constant growth rate	0.017

The DDM value of 19.67 € suggests that, according to the model's assumptions, the stock is overvalued relative to its intrinsic worth. On the other hand, the market value of 144.82 € reflects the collective perception of investors in the open market, which may be influenced by a variety of short-term and long-term factors.

Value per Share (DDM)	19.67 €
Market value per share	144.82 €

We also performed a sensitivity analysis.

	Constant Growth rate
Cost of equity		1.1%	1.3%	1.5%	1.7%	1.9%	2.1%	2.3%
	6.5%	25.37 €	26.40 €	27.51 €	28.72 €	30.04 €	31.47 €	33.04 €
	7.5%	21.39 €	22.13 €	22.91 €	23.75 €	24.65 €	25.62 €	26.66 €
	8.5%	18.49 €	19.05 €	19.63 €	20.25 €	20.91 €	21.60 €	22.35 €
	8.7%	18.01 €	18.53 €	19.08 €	19.67 €	20.29 €	20.95 €	21.65 €
	8.9%	17.54 €	18.04 €	18.57 €	19.12 €	19.71 €	20.33 €	20.99 €
	9.9%	15.54 €	15.94 €	16.35 €	16.78 €	17.24 €	17.72 €	18.22 €
	10.9%	13.96 €	14.27 €	14.61 €	14.96 €	15.32 €	15.70 €	16.10 €

Inverse problem

In this section, our objective is to calculate the necessary growth rate of Safran's stock to achieve its market value, assuming market efficiency. To achieve this, we will simply reverse the GGM formula to derive the cost of equity.

	Inverse problem
Market value per share	144.82 €
Expected dividend per share	1.37 €
Dividend growth rate	1.70%
Cost of equity	2.64%

The cost of equity of 2.64% for Safran represents the expected return or required rate of return that investors demand for holding the company's stock. A low cost of equity, such as 2.64%, indicates that investors perceive Safran as a relatively safe and stable investment.

Monte Carlo Simulations for Stock Price Predictions - Python Code

"""
Created on Thu Jul 27 18:31:35 2023

@author: Jérémy Archier
"""

import csv
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from scipy.stats import norm

# Step 1: Load data from the CSV file
csv_file_path = "SAF.PA.csv"

dates = []
opens = []

with open(csv_file_path, newline="") as csvfile:
    csv_reader = csv.DictReader(csvfile)

    for row in csv_reader:
        # Check if the 'Open' value is 'null' or empty or 0
        if row['Open'].strip() == '' or row['Open'].lower() == 'null' or float(row['Open']) == 0:
            # Skip the data point if there is no valid 'Open' value
            continue

        # Convert the 'Open' value to a float
        open_value = float(row['Open'])

        # Convert the 'Date' value to a datetime object
        date_value = datetime.strptime(row['Date'], '%Y-%m-%d')

        # Append the 'Date' and 'Open' values to their respective lists
        dates.append(date_value)
        opens.append(open_value)

# Step 2: Compute the logarithmic returns of the stock
log_returns = np.log(np.array(opens[1:]) / np.array(opens[:-1]))

# Plot the previous prices
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(dates, opens, linestyle='-', color='b')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Open Value')
plt.title('Open Value as a Function of Dates')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# Plot the log returns
plt.figure(figsize=(6, 5))
plt.hist(log_returns, bins=30, edgecolor='k')
plt.xlabel("Logarithmic Returns")
plt.ylabel("Frequency")
plt.title("Distribution of Logarithmic Returns")
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# Step 3: Compute the Drift
u = log_returns.mean()
var = log_returns.var()
drift = u - (0.5 * var)

# Step 4: Compute the Variance and Daily Returns
stdev = log_returns.std()
days = 50
trials = 1000000  # Reduce the number of trials to 100 for faster computation
Z = norm.ppf(np.random.rand(days, trials))  # days, trials
daily_returns = np.exp(drift + stdev * Z)

# Step 5: Calculating the stock price for every trial
price_paths = np.zeros_like(daily_returns)
price_paths[0] = opens[-1]
for t in range(1, days):
    price_paths[t] = price_paths[t - 1] * daily_returns[t]

# Step 6: Calculate the probability of reaching the target price
target_price = 150.0  # Replace this with the desired target price

# Count how many times the stock price reaches or exceeds the target price in each trial
success_count = np.sum(price_paths[-1, :] >= target_price)

# Calculate the probability as the ratio of successful trials to total trials
probability = success_count / trials

# Print the probability
print(f"The probability of the stock reaching or exceeding {target_price} is: {probability:.2%}")

# Step 7: Plot the histogram of final stock prices
final_prices = price_paths[-1, :]
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plt.hist(final_prices, bins=30, edgecolor='k', density=True)
plt.axvline(x=target_price, color='r', linestyle='dashed', linewidth=2, label=f'Target Price ({target_price})')
plt.xlabel('Stock Price')
plt.ylabel('Probability Density')
plt.title('Probability Distribution of Final Stock Prices')
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

# Step 8: Plot the price paths for each trial
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
for trial in range(trials):
    trial_dates = [dates[-1] + timedelta(days=i) for i in range(days)]
    plt.plot(trial_dates, price_paths[:, trial], linewidth=0.5)
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Stock Price')
plt.title('Monte Carlo Simulation of Stock Price')
plt.tight_layout()
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()