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{{ | {{Cover Image|[[File:5c603e0d86d2c7c005d1df44a jVVOsV8.jpg]]}} | ||
{{Short description|On a mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.}} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+ Key information | |||
|- | |||
| Risk/return|| [[Risk/return::High]] | |||
|- | |||
| Price per share|| [[Price per share::$303.35]]<ref name=":1">https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/profile?p=TSLA</ref> | |||
|- | |||
| Asset class|| [[Asset class::Equities]]<ref name=":2">https://sec.report/CIK/0001318605#:~:text=Tesla%2C%20Inc.%20is%20incorporated%20in,motor%20vehicles%20%26%20passenger%20car%20bodies.</ref> | |||
|- | |||
| Industry|| [[Industry::Consumer Cyclical]]<ref name=":1" /> | |||
|- | |||
| Country of incorporation|| [[Country of incorporation::United States]]<ref name=":2" /> | |||
|- | |||
| Minimum investment amount|| [[Minimum investment amount::$10]]<ref name=":10">https://www.business2community.com/stocks/buy-tesla-stock</ref> | |||
|- | |||
| Maximum investment amount|| [[Maximum investment amount::$950.54 billion]]<ref name=":1" /> | |||
|- | |||
| Current valuation|| [[Current valuation::$950.54 billion]]<ref name=":1" /> | |||
|- | |||
| Investor type|| [[Investor type::All]] | |||
|- | |||
| Bid/ask spread (%)|| [[Bid/ask spread::0.0015063%]]<ref name=":1" /> | |||
|- | |||
| Commission amount|| [[Commission amount::Zero]]<ref name=":10" /> | |||
|- | |||
| Market|| [[Market::Public]]<ref name=":1" /> | |||
|} | |||
==Summary== | |||
' | *Tesla is on a mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.<ref name=":3">https://www.tesla.com/about</ref> | ||
*The company sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. It emphasises performance, attractive styling and the safety of its users in the design and manufacture of its products and is continuing to develop full self-driving technology for improved safety. It also strives to lower the cost of ownership for its customers through continuous efforts to reduce manufacturing costs and by offering financial and other services tailored to its products.<ref name=":4">https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459021004599/tsla-10k_20201231.htm</ref> | |||
* Assuming that Tesla increases its share of the automotive market to 10% (from 2%) and other assumptions, the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative 24%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £760 in five years time. | |||
* The degree of risk associated with an investment in Tesla is 'high', with the shares having a beta that is 112% above the market (2.12 vs. 1). | |||
==Operations== | ==Operations== | ||
| Line 94: | Line 43: | ||
The idea of the company came about when the now founding team of the company realised that the current way that humankind is meeting its energy needs is unsustainable and bad for the planet.<ref name=":9">https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me</ref> | The idea of the company came about when the now founding team of the company realised that the current way that humankind is meeting its energy needs is unsustainable and bad for the planet.<ref name=":9">https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me</ref> | ||
Currently, an estimated 85% of the world's energy needs are met by burning fossil fuels<ref>https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y</ref>, and energy production and consumption are responsible for 76% of annual human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.<ref | Currently, an estimated 85% of the world's energy needs are met by burning fossil fuels<ref>https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y</ref>, and energy production and consumption are responsible for 76% of annual human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions?breakBy=sector&chartType=percentage&end_year=2018§ors=total-including-lucf&start_year=1990</ref><ref>https://www.wri.org/insights/4-charts-explain-greenhouse-gas-emissions-countries-and-sectors</ref> | ||
Researching into a better way to meet the energy needs, the team concluded that the best way to do so is to move to a solar electric economy, from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy.<ref name=":9" /> | Researching into a better way to meet the energy needs, the team concluded that the best way to do so is to move to a solar electric economy, from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy.<ref name=":9" /> | ||
| Line 511: | Line 460: | ||
[[File:Elon Musk Royal Society (crop2).jpg|200px]] | [[File:Elon Musk Royal Society (crop2).jpg|200px]] | ||
Elon Musk is the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla and has served the position since October 2008 and as a member of the Board since April 2004. Elon has also served as Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer and Chairman of Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, an advanced rocket and spacecraft manufacturing and services company (“SpaceX ”), since May 2002, and served as Chairman of the Board of SolarCity Corporation, a solar installation company, from July 2006 until its acquisition by Tesla in November 2016. Elon is also a founder of The Boring Company, an infrastructure company, and of Neuralink Corp., a company focused on developing brain-machine interfaces. Prior to SpaceX, Elon co-founded PayPal, an electronic payment system, which was acquired by eBay in October 2002, and Zip2 Corporation, a provider of Internet enterprise software and services, which was acquired by Compaq in March 1999. Elon has also served on the board of directors of Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. since April 2021. Elon holds a B.A. in physics from the University of Pennsylvania and a B.S. in business from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. | |||
====Chief Financial Officer==== | ====Chief Financial Officer==== | ||
| Line 589: | Line 538: | ||
==Financials== | ==Financials== | ||
'''Tesla revenues over the lifetime of the company''' | |||
[[File:Tesla revenues over the lifetime of the company.png]] | |||
=== Historic === | === Historic === | ||
| Line 600: | Line 551: | ||
==== All periods ==== | ==== All periods ==== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+Historic financials<ref>Source: Stockhub Limited</ref><ref group="Note" name="Note04" /> | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Year | !Year | ||
| Line 616: | Line 567: | ||
!'''16''' | !'''16''' | ||
!'''17''' | !'''17''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Year end date'''||'''31/12/2005'''||'''31/12/2006<ref name=":12">{{cite web|url=https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/07/14/2006-san-carlos-start-up-tesla-seeks-sexier-electric-car/|title=2006: San Carlos start-up Tesla seeks sexier electric car|date=July 14, 2014}}</ref><ref name="SEC">{{cite web | url=https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1318605 | title=Tesla, Inc. TSLA on Nasdaq | publisher=[[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]]}}</ref>'''||'''31/12/2007'''||'''31/12/2008'''||'''31/12/2009''' | |'''Year end date'''||'''31/12/2005'''||'''31/12/2006<ref name=":12">{{cite web|url=https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/07/14/2006-san-carlos-start-up-tesla-seeks-sexier-electric-car/|title=2006: San Carlos start-up Tesla seeks sexier electric car|date=July 14, 2014}}</ref><ref name="SEC">{{cite web | url=https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1318605 | title=Tesla, Inc. TSLA on Nasdaq | publisher=[[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission]]}}</ref>'''||'''31/12/2007'''||'''31/12/2008'''||'''31/12/2009''' | ||
|'''31/12/2010<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2010<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2011<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2011<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2012<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2012<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2013<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2013<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2014<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2014<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2015<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2015<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2016<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2016<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2017<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2017<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2018<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2018<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2019<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2019<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2020<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2020<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|'''31/12/2021<ref name="SEC" />''' | |'''31/12/2021<ref name="SEC" />''' | ||
|''' | |- | ||
|' | | colspan="18" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Income statement'''</div> | ||
|' | |- | ||
|''' | |Revenues ($'million)|| 0||0||0.073||15||112 | ||
| | |117 | ||
| | |204 | ||
| | |413 | ||
| | |2,013 | ||
| | |3,198 | ||
| | |4,046 | ||
| | |7,000 | ||
| | |11,759 | ||
| | |21,461 | ||
| | |24,578 | ||
| | |31,536 | ||
| | |53,823 | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Net profits ($'million)||style="color: red;" |-12||style="color: red;" |-30||style="color: red;" |-78||style="color: red;" |-83|| style="color: red;" |−56 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−154 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−254 | ||
|''' | |style="color: red;" |−396 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−74 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−294 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−889 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−675 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−1,962 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−976 | ||
| | |style="color: red;" |−862 | ||
| | |721 | ||
| | |5,519 | ||
| | |- | ||
| | | colspan="18" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Balance sheet'''</div> | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Total assets<br />($'million) | ||
| | |8 | ||
| | |44 | ||
| | |34 | ||
| | |52 | ||
| | |130 | ||
| | |386 | ||
| | |713 | ||
| | |1,114 | ||
| | |2,417 | ||
|5,831 | |||
|8,068 | |||
|22,664 | |||
|28,655 | |||
|29,740 | |||
|34,309 | |||
|52,148 | |||
|62,131 | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="18" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Other'''</div> | |||
|- | |||
|Employees | |||
|NA | |||
|70 | |||
|268 | |||
|252 | |||
|514 | |||
|899 | |||
|1,417 | |||
|2,914 | |||
|5,859 | |||
|10,161 | |||
|13,058 | |||
|17,782 | |||
|37,543 | |||
|48,817 | |||
|48,016 | |||
|70,757 | |||
|99,290 | |||
|} | |||
=== Forward === | |||
====What are the financial forecasts?==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Forward financials<ref>Source: Stockhub Limited</ref><ref group="Note" name="Note04" /> | |||
|- | |- | ||
!Year | |||
!18 !!19!!20!!21!!22 | |||
!23 | |||
!24 | |||
!25 | |||
!26 | |||
!27 | |||
!28 | |||
!29 | |||
!30 | |||
!31 | |||
| | !32 | ||
|''' | !33 | ||
| | !34 | ||
|''' | !35 | ||
| | !36 | ||
|''' | !37 | ||
| | !38 | ||
|''' | !39 | ||
| | !40 | ||
|''' | !41 | ||
| | !42 | ||
|''' | !43 | ||
|''' | !44 | ||
|''' | !45 | ||
|''' | !46 | ||
|''' | !47 | ||
|''' | !48 | ||
|''' | !49 | ||
|''' | !50 | ||
|''' | !51 | ||
|''' | !52 | ||
|''' | !53 | ||
|''' | !54 | ||
|''' | !55 | ||
|''' | !56 | ||
|''' | !57 | ||
|''' | !58 | ||
|''' | !59 | ||
|''' | |- | ||
|''' | |'''Year end date'''||'''31/12/2022'''||'''31/12/2023'''||'''31/12/2024'''||'''31/12/2025'''||'''31/12/2026''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2027''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2028''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2029''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2030''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2031''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2032''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2033''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2034''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2035''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2036''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2037''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2038''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2039''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2040''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2041''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2042''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2043''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2044''' | ||
|''' | |'''31/12/2045''' | ||
|'''31/12/2046''' | |||
|- | |'''31/12/2047''' | ||
| colspan=" | |'''31/12/2048''' | ||
|- | |'''31/12/2049''' | ||
|Revenues ($'million)| | |'''31/12/2050''' | ||
|'''31/12/2051''' | |||
|'''31/12/2052''' | |||
|'''31/12/2053''' | |||
|'''31/12/2054''' | |||
|'''31/12/2055''' | |||
|'''31/12/2056''' | |||
|'''31/12/2057''' | |||
|'''31/12/2058''' | |||
|'''31/12/2059''' | |||
|'''31/12/2060''' | |||
|'''31/12/2061''' | |||
|'''31/12/2062''' | |||
|'''31/12/2063''' | |||
|$78,935 | |- | ||
|$112,257 | | colspan="43" |<div style="text-align: center;">'''Income statement'''</div> | ||
|$154,816 | |- | ||
|$207,049 | |Revenues ($'million)|| $78,935||$112,257||$154,816||$207,049||$268,527 | ||
|$268,527 | |$337,721 | ||
|$337,721 | |$411,894 | ||
|$411,894 | |$487,157 | ||
|$487,157 | |$558,739 | ||
|$558,739 | |$621,448 | ||
|$621,448 | |$670,282 | ||
|$670,282 | |$701,078 | ||
|$701,078 | |$711,102 | ||
|$711,102 | |$699,445 | ||
|$699,445 | |$667,163 | ||
|$667,163 | |$617,116 | ||
|$617,116 | |$553,551 | ||
|$553,551 | |$481,510 | ||
|$481,510 | |$406,171 | ||
|$406,171 | |$332,253 | ||
|$332,253 | |$263,564 | ||
|$263,564 | |$202,749 | ||
|$202,749 | |$151,247 | ||
|$151,247 | |$109,414 | ||
|$109,414 | |$76,757 | ||
|$76,757 | |$52,217 | ||
|$52,217 | |$34,448 | ||
|$34,448 | |$22,038 | ||
|$22,038 | |$13,673 | ||
|$13,673 | |$8,226 | ||
|$8,226 | |$4,799 | ||
|$4,799 | |$2,715 | ||
|$2,715 | |$1,490 | ||
|$1,490 | |$793 | ||
|$793 | |$409 | ||
|$409 | |$205 | ||
|$205 | |$99 | ||
|$99 | |$47 | ||
|$47 | |||
|$21 | |$21 | ||
|$ | |$9 | ||
|$4 | |$4 | ||
|$2 | |$2 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Gross profits ($'million)||$23,680||$33,677||$46,445||$62,115||$80,558 | ||
| | |$101,316 | ||
| | |$185,352 | ||
| | |$219,221 | ||
| | |$251,432 | ||
| | |$279,652 | ||
| | |$301,627 | ||
| | |$315,485 | ||
| | |$319,996 | ||
| | |$314,750 | ||
| | |$300,223 | ||
| | |$277,702 | ||
| | |$249,098 | ||
| | |$216,679 | ||
| | |$182,777 | ||
| | |$149,514 | ||
| | |$118,604 | ||
| | |$91,237 | ||
| | |$68,061 | ||
|$11,840 | |$49,236 | ||
|$16,839 | |$34,541 | ||
|$23,222 | |$23,498 | ||
|$31,057 | |$15,502 | ||
|$40,279 | |$9,917 | ||
|$6,153 | |||
|$3,702 | |||
|$2,160 | |||
|$1,222 | |||
|$670 | |||
|$357 | |||
|$184 | |||
|$92 | |||
|$45 | |||
|$21 | |||
|$10 | |||
|$4 | |||
|$2 | |||
|$1 | |||
|- | |||
|Operating profits ($'million)||$11,840||$16,839||$23,222||$31,057||$40,279 | |||
|$50,658 | |$50,658 | ||
|$123,568 | |$123,568 | ||
| Line 962: | Line 859: | ||
|$1 | |$1 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Net profits ($'million)| | |Net profits ($'million)||$9,354||$13,302||$18,346||$24,535|| $31,820 | ||
|$9,354 | |||
|$13,302 | |||
|$18,346 | |||
|$24,535 | |||
|$31,820 | |||
|$40,020 | |$40,020 | ||
|$97,619 | |$97,619 | ||
| Line 1,018: | Line 897: | ||
|$1 | |$1 | ||
|$0 | |$0 | ||
|} | |||
==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Key inputs | |||
!Description | |||
!Value | |||
!Commentary | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" | <div style="text-align: center;">'''Revenue'''</div> | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? | |||
|$2,975,000,000 | |||
|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global automotive market, and based on a number of assumptions<ref group="Note" name="Note01" />, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (30th May 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.975 trillion. | |||
If the TAM is defined as the global energy market, then research suggests that the estimated size of the market is $6.777 trillion.<ref name=":16">https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett/files/an_exploration_of_energy_cost_ranges_limits_and_adjustment_process.pdf</ref> | |||
|- | |||
|What is the estimated company lifespan? | |||
|60 years | |||
|Tesla employs around 110,000, making the company a large organisation (more than 10,000 employees), and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.<ref>Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.</ref> | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? | |||
|3% | |||
|Research shows that the growth rate of the global automotive market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product<ref>http://www.robertpicard.net/files/econgrowthandadvertising.pdf</ref>, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)<ref>https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate</ref>. | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated company peak market share? | |||
|10% | |||
|Stockhub estimates that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Tesla is around 10%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Tesla's current share of the market is estimated at around 1.8%. | |||
|- | |||
|Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? | |||
|Gaussian | |||
|Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)<ref>http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref>, so Stockhub suggests using that function here. | |||
|- | |||
|What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? | |||
| 6 years | |||
|Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Tesla's current revenue amount (i.e. $54 billion) and Tesla's estimated lifespan (i.e. 60 years) and Tesla's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. growth stage), the Stockhub company suggests using 6 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 6 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here. | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stages</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through? | |||
| 4 stages | |||
|Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.<ref>Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x</nowiki></ref> Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.<ref>Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.</ref> | |||
In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.<ref>Dickinson, 2010.</ref> A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. Stockhub estimates that with Tesla's operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the second stage of growth (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows. | |||
On 7th February 2022, Tesla said it currently expects: to continue to generate net positive operating cash flow as it has done in the last four fiscal years; its capital expenditures to be between $5.00 to $7.00 billion in 2022 and each of the next two fiscal years; and its ability to be self-funding to continue as long as macroeconomic factors support current trends in its sales. Accordingly, based on forward looking statements, it appears that the company is in stage two of the business lifecycle (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth remaining. | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? | ||
|30% | |||
|Research suggests 30%.<ref name=":6">http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf</ref> | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2? | ||
| | |10% | ||
| | |Research suggests 10%.<ref name=":6" /> | ||
| | |- | ||
| | | What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3? | ||
| | |20% | ||
| | | Research suggests 20%.<ref name=":6" /> | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4? | ||
| | |40% | ||
| | |Research suggests 40%.<ref name=":6" /> | ||
| | |- | ||
| | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>''' | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |79% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7">http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf</ref>, and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |15% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Tax rate (%) | ||
| | |11% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 11%. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |7% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |10% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |15% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 15%. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Net borrowing ($000) | ||
| | |Zero | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Interest amount ($000) | ||
| | |Zero | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>''' | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |62% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 62%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
| | |- | ||
| | |Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |13% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 13%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Tax rate (%) | ||
|14% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 14%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |4% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 4%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|3% | |3% | ||
|Research | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 3%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|10% | |10% | ||
| | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net borrowing ($000) | ||
| | |Zero | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Interest amount ($000) | ||
| | |Zero | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth | | colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |99% | ||
|Research suggests that | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 99%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |15% | ||
|Research suggests | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Tax rate (%) | ||
| | |0% | ||
|Research suggests | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the rate for its peers is 0%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | |37% | ||
| Research suggests | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 37%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
| 1% | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 1%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | |||
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |||
| | |||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
| | | 10% | ||
|Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage | |Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)<ref name=":7" />, and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Net borrowing ($000) | |Net borrowing ($000) | ||
| Line 1,244: | Line 1,063: | ||
|Zero | |Zero | ||
|Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | |Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero. | ||
| | |} | ||
==Risks== | |||
As with any investment, investing in Tesla carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the key risks highlighted below, the degree of risk associated with an investment in Tesla is high. | |||
===Risks related to the ability to grow the business=== | |||
*Tesla may be impacted by macroeconomic conditions resulting from the global COVID-19 pandemic. | |||
*Tesla may experience delays in launching and ramping the production of its products and features, or Tesla may be unable to control its manufacturing costs. | |||
*Tesla may be unable to grow its global product sales, delivery and installation capabilities and its servicing and vehicle charging networks, or Tesla may be unable to accurately project and effectively manage its growth. | |||
*Tesla's future growth and success is dependent upon consumers’ demand for electric vehicles and specifically its vehicles in an automotive industry that is generally competitive, cyclical and volatile. | |||
*Tesla's suppliers may fail to deliver components according to schedules, prices, quality and volumes that are acceptable to us, or Tesla may be unable to manage these components effectively. | |||
*Tesla may be unable to meet its projected construction timelines, costs and production ramps at new factories, or Tesla may experience difficulties in generating and maintaining demand for products manufactured there. | |||
* Tesla will need to maintain and significantly grow its access to battery cells, including through the development and manufacture of its own cells, and control its related costs. | |||
*Tesla faces strong competition for its products and services from a growing list of established and new competitors. | |||
===Risks related to the company's operations=== | |||
*Tesla may experience issues with lithium-ion cells or other components manufactured at Gigafactory Nevada and Gigafactory Shanghai, which may harm the production and profitability of its vehicle and energy storage products. | |||
*Tesla faces risks associated with maintaining and expanding its international operations, including unfavourable and uncertain regulatory, political, economic, tax and labour conditions. | |||
*Tesla's business may suffer if its products or features contain defects, fail to perform as expected or take longer than expected to become fully functional. | |||
*Tesla may be required to defend or insure against product liability claims. | |||
*Tesla will need to maintain public credibility and confidence in its long-term business prospects in order to succeed. | |||
*Tesla may be unable to effectively grow, or manage the compliance, residual value, financing and credit risks related to, its various financing programs. | |||
*Tesla must manage ongoing obligations under its agreement with the Research Foundation for the State University of New York relating to its Gigafactory New York. | |||
*If Tesla is unable to attract, hire and retain key employees and qualified personnel, its ability to compete may be harmed. | |||
*Tesla is highly dependent on the services of Elon Musk, its Chief Executive Officer. | |||
*Tesla's information technology systems or data, or those of its service providers or customers or users could be subject to cyber-attacks or other security incidents, which could result in data breaches, intellectual property theft, claims, litigation, regulatory investigations, significant liability, reputational damage and other adverse consequences. | |||
*Any unauthorized control or manipulation of Tesla's products’ systems could result in loss of confidence in it and its products. | |||
*Tesla's business may be adversely affected by any disruptions caused by union activities. | |||
*Tesla may choose to or be compelled to undertake product recalls or take other similar actions. | |||
*Tesla's current and future warranty reserves may be insufficient to cover future warranty claims. | |||
*Tesla's insurance coverage strategy may not be adequate to protect it from all business risks. | |||
*Tesla's debt agreements contain covenant restrictions that may limit its ability to operate its business. | |||
*Additional funds may not be available to Tesla when it needs or want them. | |||
*Tesla may be negatively impacted by any early obsolescence of its manufacturing equipment. | |||
*Tesla holds and may acquire digital assets that may be subject to volatile market prices, impairment and unique risks of loss. | |||
*There is no guarantee that Tesla will have sufficient cash flow from its business to pay its indebtedness or that it will not incur additional indebtedness. | |||
*Tesla is exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates. | |||
*Tesla may need to defend itself against intellectual property infringement claims, which may be time-consuming and expensive. | |||
*Increased scrutiny and changing expectations from stakeholders with respect to the company's ESG practices may result in additional costs or risks. | |||
* Tesla's operations could be adversely affected by events outside of its control, such as natural disasters, wars or health epidemics. | |||
==Risks== | ===Risks related to government laws and regulations=== | ||
* Demand for Tesla's products and services may be impacted by the status of government and economic incentives supporting the development and adoption of such products. | |||
*Tesla is subject to evolving laws and regulations that could impose substantial costs, legal prohibitions or unfavourable changes upon its operations or products. | |||
*Any failure by Tesla to comply with a variety of United States and international privacy and consumer protection laws may harm the company. | |||
*Tesla could be subject to liability, penalties and other restrictive sanctions and adverse consequences arising out of certain governmental investigations and proceedings. | |||
*Tesla may face regulatory challenges to or limitations on its ability to sell vehicles directly. | |||
===Risks related to the ownership of the company's common stock=== | |||
The | *The trading price of Tesla's common stock is likely to continue to be volatile. | ||
* Tesla's financial results may vary significantly from period to period due to fluctuations in its operating costs and other factors. | |||
*Tesla may fail to meet its publicly announced guidance or other expectations about its business, which could cause its stock price to decline. | |||
*Transactions relating to Tesla's convertible senior notes may dilute the ownership interest of existing stockholders, or may otherwise depress the price of its common stock. | |||
*If Elon Musk were forced to sell shares of Tesla's common stock that he has pledged to secure certain personal loan obligations, such sales could cause its stock price to decline. | |||
* Anti-takeover provisions contained in Tesla's governing documents, applicable laws and its convertible senior notes could impair a takeover attempt. | |||
==Valuation== | |||
===What's the expected return of an investment in the company?=== | |||
Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative 24%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £760 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | |||
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Tesla achieves its expected return level (of negative 24%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'unsuitable' one. | |||
=== | ===What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+ Key inputs | |||
!Description | |||
!Value | |||
!Commentary | |||
|- | |||
| Which valuation model do you want to use? | |||
|Discounted cash flow | |||
| There are two main approaches to estimate the value of an investment: | |||
# By calculating the present value of the investment's expected future cash flows (i.e. discounted cash flow valuation); and | |||
#By comparing the investment to other similar investments (i.e. relative valuation). | |||
= | Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach<ref name=":5">Demirakos et al., 2010; Gleason et al., 2013</ref>, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). | ||
Tesla has never paid cash dividends, and on 7th February 2022, it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, Stockhub suggests using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model). | |||
|- | |||
|Which financial forecasts to use? | |||
| Stockhub | |||
|The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those. | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 2</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|Discount rate (%) | |||
| 15% | |||
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital. | |||
|- | |||
|Probability of success (%) | |||
| 90% | |||
| Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%. | |||
== | |- | ||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 3</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|Discount rate (%) | |||
| 10% | |||
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital. | |||
|- | |||
|Probability of success (%) | |||
|100% | |||
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%. | |||
|- | |||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Growth stage 4</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|Discount rate (%) | |||
| 10% | |||
|There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital. | |||
|- | |||
|Probability of success (%) | |||
| 100% | |||
|Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%. | |||
== | |- | ||
| colspan="3" |'''<div style="text-align: center;">Other key inputs</div>''' | |||
|- | |||
|What's the current value of the company? | |||
|$950.54 billion | |||
|As at 5th June 2022, the current value of the Tesla company is $950.54 billion. | |||
|- | |||
|Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | |||
| Between now and five years time | |||
|Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf</ref> Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time. | |||
|} | |||
=== | ===Sensitive analysis=== | ||
The | The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Tesla investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): | ||
#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $3.0 trillion); | |||
#Tesla peak market share (the default share is 10%); and | |||
#The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 10%). | |||
The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Tesla investment is shown in the table below. | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable sortable" | ||
|+ | |+Tesla investment expected return sensitive analysis | ||
! | !Main input | ||
! | !50% worse | ||
! | !Unchanged | ||
!50% better | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |The size of the total addressable market | ||
| | |N/A | ||
| | |(24%) | ||
|N/A | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Tesla peak market share | ||
| | |N/A | ||
| | | (24%) | ||
| N/A | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |The discount rate | ||
| | |N/A | ||
| | |(24%) | ||
| N/A | |||
| | |} | ||
==Appendix== | |||
=== Competition === | |||
==== Automotive ==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Model S competition comparison | |||
!Category | |||
!Model S<ref name=":8">https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/taycan/taycan-models/taycan/</ref> | |||
!Porsche Taycan<ref name=":8" /> | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Is the vehicle fully electric? | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | |||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | ||
| | | style="background: green; color: white;" |3.1 seconds | ||
| | | style="background: red; color: white;" |5.1 seconds | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | ||
| | | style="background: green; color: white;" |405 miles | ||
| | | style="background: red; color: white;" |200 miles | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What's the top speed of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |155 miles per hour | |||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |143 miles per hour | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Which design type is the vehicle? | ||
| | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |Sedan (i.e. car) | ||
| | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |Sedan (i.e. car) | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What is the safety rating of the vehicle? | ||
| | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |5 out of 5 stars | ||
| | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |5 out of 5 stars | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |How many seats does the vehicle have? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |5 seats | |||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |4 seats | |||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the | |What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | ||
| | | style="background: green; color: white;" |28 cubic feet | ||
| | | style="background: red; color: white;" |17.2 cubic feet | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which | |Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | ||
| | | style="background: green; color: white;" |All-wheel drive | ||
| | | style="background: red; color: white;" |Rear-wheel drive | ||
|- | |||
|What's the price of the vehicle? | |||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$99,990 | |||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$86,700 | |||
|- | |||
|What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | |||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$3,571 per cubic feet | |||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$5,041 per cubic feet | |||
|- | |||
|What's the vehicle's price per seat? | |||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$19,998 per seat | |||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$21,675 per seat | |||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Model 3 competition comparison | |||
!Category | |||
!Model 3<ref>https://www.tesla.com/model3</ref> | |||
!Mustang Mach-E<ref>https://www.ford.com/suvs/mach-e/?gnav=header-electrified-vhp</ref> | |||
|- | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Model | |||
!Category | |||
!Model | |||
! | |||
|- | |||
|Is the vehicle fully electric? | |Is the vehicle fully electric? | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | ||
| Line 1,501: | Line 1,303: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | |What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |5.8 seconds | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |5.2 seconds | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | |What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |272 miles | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |247 miles | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the top speed of the vehicle? | |What's the top speed of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |140 miles per hour | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |124 miles per hour | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which design type is the vehicle? | |Which design type is the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Sedan (i.e. car) | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |Sedan (i.e. car) | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |SUV (i.e. car) | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What is the safety rating of the vehicle? | |What is the safety rating of the vehicle? | ||
| Line 1,521: | Line 1,323: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|How many seats does the vehicle have? | |How many seats does the vehicle have? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |5 seats | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |5 seats | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | |What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |23 cubic feet | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |59.7 cubic feet | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | |Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |Rear-wheel drive | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |Rear-wheel drive | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the price of the vehicle? | |What's the price of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$46,990 | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$43,895 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | |What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$2,043 per cubic feet | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$735 per cubic feet | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the vehicle's price per seat? | |What's the vehicle's price per seat? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$9,398 per seat | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$8,779 per seat | ||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+Model | |+Model X competition comparison | ||
!Category | !Category | ||
!Model | !Model X<ref name=":13" /> | ||
! | !Audi e-tron<ref>https://www.audiusa.com/us/web/en/models/e-tron/e-tron/2022/overview.html#2022-Audi-e-tron%C2%AE</ref> | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Is the vehicle fully electric? | |Is the vehicle fully electric? | ||
| Line 1,556: | Line 1,358: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | |What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |3.8 seconds | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |5.5 seconds | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | |What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |348 miles | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |222 miles | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the top speed of the vehicle? | |What's the top speed of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |155 miles per hour | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |124 miles per hour | | style="background: red; color: white;" |124 miles per hour | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which design type is the vehicle? | |Which design type is the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |SUV (i.e. car) | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |SUV (i.e. car) | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |SUV (i.e. car) | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Line 1,576: | Line 1,378: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|How many seats does the vehicle have? | |How many seats does the vehicle have? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |7 seats | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |5 seats | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | |What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |88 cubic feet | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |56 cubic feet | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | |Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |All-wheel drive | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" | | | style="background: orange; color: white;" |All-wheel drive | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the price of the vehicle? | |What's the price of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$114,990 | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$65,900 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | |What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$1,307 per cubic feet | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$1,168 per cubic feet | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the vehicle's price per seat? | |What's the vehicle's price per seat? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$16,427 per seat | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$13,180 per seat | ||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+Model | |+Model Y competition comparison | ||
!Category | !Category | ||
!Model | !Model Y<ref name=":13" /> | ||
! | !Volkswagen ID.4 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Is the vehicle fully electric? | |Is the vehicle fully electric? | ||
| Line 1,611: | Line 1,413: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | |What's the top acceleration of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |4.8 seconds | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |8.5 seconds | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | |What's the maximum distance range of the vehicle on a single battery charge? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |330 miles | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |275 miles | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the top speed of the vehicle? | |What's the top speed of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |135 miles per hour | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |100 miles per hour | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which design type is the vehicle? | |Which design type is the vehicle? | ||
| Line 1,635: | Line 1,437: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | |What's the cargo capacity of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | | style="background: green; color: white;" |76 cubic feet | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | | style="background: red; color: white;" |55.6 cubic feet | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | |Which drive wheel does the vehicle have? | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: green; color: white;" |All-wheel drive | ||
| style="background: | | style="background: red; color: white;" |Rear-wheel drive | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the price of the vehicle? | |What's the price of the vehicle? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$62,990 | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$41,230 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | |What's the vehicle's price per cargo capacity? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$829 per cubic feet | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$742 per cubic feat | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the vehicle's price per seat? | |What's the vehicle's price per seat? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: red; color: white;" |$8,999 per seat | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | | style="background: green; color: white;" |$8,248 per seat | ||
|} | |} | ||
==== Energy generation and storage ==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+All Tesla energy storage competition comparison | ||
! | |- | ||
! | ! !!Powerwall!!'''Megapack''' | ||
! | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Is the | |Is the source of energy solar?||style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes||style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | ||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | |||
| style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Is it designed for houses (i.e. smaller electricity demand)?||style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes||style="background: red; color: white;" |No | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | |||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Is it designed for commercial buildings (i.e. greater electricity demand)?||style="background: red; color: white;" |No|| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes | ||
| style="background: | |||
| style="background: | |||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the | |What's the energy capacity of the product? | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: red; color: white;" |13.5 kilowatt hour | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: green; color: white;" |3.5 megawatt hour | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What’s the power of the product? | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: red; color: white;" |5 kilowatts | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: green; color: white;" |1.54 megawatts | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |How long does it take to charge the battery if there’s sufficient solar energy? | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: red; color: white;" |2.7 hours | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: green; color: white;" |2.3 hours | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |What's the price of the product? | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" | | |style="background: green; color: white;" |$10,500 | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | |style="background: red; color: white;" |$1,000,000 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the | |What's the price per energy capacity? | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: red; color: white;" |$593 per kilowatt hour | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: green; color: white;" |$286 per kilowatt hour | ||
|} | |||
Note: 1 megawatt is equivalent to 1,000 kilowatts. | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Powerwall competition comparison | |||
!What's the name of the product? | |||
!Powerwall | |||
!LG Chem | |||
!SonnenCore | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Is the source of energy solar? | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | ||
|style="background: orange; color: white;" |Yes | |||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the | |What's the energy capacity of the product? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" | | |style="background: green; color: white;" |13.5 kilowatt hour | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: red; color: white;" |9.3 kilowatt hour | ||
|style="background: orange; color: white;" |10 kilowatt hour | |||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the | |What's the price of the product? | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |$ | |style="background: red; color: white;" |$10,500 | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |$ | |style="background: green; color: white;" |$7,000 | ||
|style="background: orange; color: white;" |$9,500 | |||
|- | |- | ||
|What's the | |What's the price per energy capacity? | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: green; color: white;" |$593 per kilowatt hour | ||
| style="background: | |style="background: orange; color: white;" |$753 per kilowatt hour | ||
|style="background: red; color: white;" |$950 per kilowatt hour | |||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+Solar Roof competition comparison | ||
|- | |- | ||
! !! | ! !!Solar Roof!!Traditional roof tile | ||
!Other solar-energy generation roof tile | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Does it generate electricity?|| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes|| style="background: red; color: white;" |No | ||
| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Is it | |Is it aesthetically beautiful?|| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes|| style="background: green; color: white;" |Yes | ||
| style="background: red; color: white;" |No | |||
|} | |||
=== Financial statements === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Balance sheet | |||
!Year end date | |||
!31/12/2021 | |||
!31/12/2020 | |||
!31/12/2019 | |||
!31/12/2018 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |'''Current Assets''' | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Cash and Cash Equivalents ($million) | ||
| | |$17,576 | ||
| | |$19,384 | ||
|$6,268 | |||
|$3,879 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Short-Term Investments ($million) | ||
| | |$131 | ||
| | | -- | ||
| -- | |||
| -- | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net Receivables ($million) | ||
| | |$1,913 | ||
| | |$1,886 | ||
|$1,324 | |||
|$949 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Inventory ($million) | ||
| | |$5,757 | ||
| | |$4,101 | ||
|$3,552 | |||
|$3,113 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Other Current Assets ($million) | ||
|$1,723 | |||
|$1,346 | |||
|$959 | |||
|$366 | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Total Current Assets ($million) | ||
| | |$27,100 | ||
| | |$26,717 | ||
| | |$12,103 | ||
|$8,307 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |'''Long-Term Assets''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Long-Term Investments ($million) | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| -- | |||
|$422 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Fixed Assets ($million) | ||
|$25,411 | |||
|$17,396 | |||
|$14,061 | |||
| | |$13,420 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Goodwill ($million) | |||
|$200 | |||
|$207 | |||
|$198 | |||
|$68 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Intangible Assets ($million) | ||
| | |$257 | ||
|$313 | |||
|$339 | |||
|$282 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Other Assets ($million) | ||
| | |$9,163 | ||
| | |$7,515 | ||
|$7,608 | |||
|$7,241 | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Deferred Asset Charges ($million) | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Total Assets ($million) | ||
|$ | |$62,131 | ||
|$ | |$52,148 | ||
|$ | |$34,309 | ||
|$ | |$29,740 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |'''Current Liabilities''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Accounts Payable ($million) | ||
|$ | |$15,744 | ||
|$ | |$9,906 | ||
|$ | |$6,993 | ||
|$ | |$5,499 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Short-Term Debt / Current Portion of Long-Term Debt ($million) | ||
|$ | |$1,589 | ||
|$ | |$2,132 | ||
|$ | |$1,785 | ||
|$ | |$2,568 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Other Current | |Other Current Liabilities ($million) | ||
|$ | |$2,372 | ||
|$ | |$2,210 | ||
|$ | |$1,889 | ||
|$ | |$1,926 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Total Current | |Total Current Liabilities ($million) | ||
|$ | |$19,705 | ||
|$ | |$14,248 | ||
|$ | |$10,667 | ||
|$ | |$9,993 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Long-Term Debt ($million) | ||
| | |$5,245 | ||
| | |$9,556 | ||
| | |$11,634 | ||
| | |$9,404 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Other Liabilities ($million) | ||
| | |$3,546 | ||
| | |$3,330 | ||
| | |$2,691 | ||
|$ | |$3,039 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Deferred Liability Charges ($million) | ||
|$ | |$2,052 | ||
|$ | |$1,284 | ||
|$ | |$1,207 | ||
|$ | |$991 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Misc. Stocks ($million) | ||
|$ | |$826 | ||
|$ | |$850 | ||
|$ | |$849 | ||
|$ | |$834 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Minority Interest ($million) | ||
|$ | |$568 | ||
|$ | |$655 | ||
|$ | |$643 | ||
|$ | |$556 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Total Liabilities ($million) | ||
|$ | |$31,374 | ||
|$ | |$29,268 | ||
|$ | |$27,048 | ||
|$ | |$24,261 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |'''Stock Holders Equity''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Common Stocks ($million) | ||
|$ | |$1 | ||
|$ | |$1 | ||
|$ | |$1 | ||
| | | -- | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Capital Surplus ($million) | ||
| | |$331 | ||
| | | style="color: red;" |-$5,399 | ||
| | | style="color: red;" |-$6,083 | ||
| | | style="color: red;" |-$5,318 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Retained Earnings | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Treasury Stock ($million) | ||
|$ | |$29,803 | ||
|$ | |$27,260 | ||
|$ | |$12,736 | ||
|$ | |$10,249 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Other | |Other Equity ($million) | ||
|$ | |$54 | ||
|$ | |$363 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$36 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$8 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Total | |Total Equity ($million) | ||
|$ | |$30,189 | ||
|$ | |$22,225 | ||
|$ | |$6,618 | ||
|$ | |$4,923 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Total Liabilities & Equity ($million) | ||
|$ | |$62,131 | ||
|$ | |$52,148 | ||
|$ | |$34,309 | ||
|$ | |$29,740 | ||
|} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Cash flow | |||
!Year end date | |||
!31/12/2021 | |||
!31/12/2020 | |||
!31/12/2019 | |||
!31/12/2018 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net Income ($million) | ||
|$ | |$5,519 | ||
|$ | |$721 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$862 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$976 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |'''Cash Flows-Operating Activities''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Depreciation ($million) | ||
|$ | |$2,911 | ||
|$ | |$2,322 | ||
|$ | |$2,154 | ||
|$ | |$2,060 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net Income Adjustments ($million) | ||
|$ | |$2,424 | ||
|$ | | $2,575 | ||
|$ | | $1,375 | ||
|$ | | $1,043 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Changes in Operating Activities''' | |||
|''' | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 1,956: | Line 1,784: | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Accounts Receivable ($million) | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$130 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$652 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$367 | ||
| - | | style="color: red;" |-$497 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Changes in Inventories ($million) | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$1,709 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$422 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$429 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$1,023 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Other Operating Activities ($million) | ||
| - | | style="color: red;" |-$3,676 | ||
| - | | style="color: red;" |-$1,667 | ||
| - | | style="color: red;" |-$937 | ||
| - | | style="color: red;" |-$504 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Liabilities ($million) | ||
|$ | |$6,033 | ||
|$ | |$2,925 | ||
|$ | |$1,384 | ||
|$ | |$2,082 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net Cash Flow-Operating ($million) | ||
|$ | | $11,497 | ||
|$ | | $5,943 | ||
| | | $2,405 | ||
| | |$2,098 | ||
|- | |||
|'''Cash Flows-Investing Activities''' | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Capital Expenditures ($million) | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$6,514 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$3,232 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$1,432 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$2,319 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Investments ($million) | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$132 | ||
|$ | | -- | ||
|$ | | -- | ||
|$ | | -- | ||
| | |- | ||
|Other Investing Activities ($million) | |||
| style="color: red;" |-$1,222 | |||
| | |$100 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$4 | |||
| style="color: red;" |-$18 | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Net | |Net Cash Flows-Investing ($million) | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$7,868 | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$3,132 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$1,436 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$2,337 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Cash Flows- | |'''Cash Flows-Financing Activities''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| Line 2,019: | Line 1,850: | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Sale and Purchase of Stock ($million) | ||
|$ | |$699 | ||
|$ | |$12,675 | ||
|$ | |$1,555 | ||
|$ | |$727 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Net | |Net Borrowings ($million) | ||
|$ | | style="color: red;" |-$5,732 | ||
| $2, | | style="color: red;" |-$2,488 | ||
| $ | |$798 | ||
| $ | |$89 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Other Financing Activities ($million) | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
| | | -- | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net Cash Flows-Financing ($million) | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$5,203 | ||
| | |$9,973 | ||
| | |$1,529 | ||
| | |$574 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Effect of Exchange Rate ($million) | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$183 | ||
| | |$334 | ||
| | |$8 | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$23 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Net Cash Flow ($million) | ||
| style="color: red;" |-$ | | style="color: red;" |-$1,757 | ||
| | |$13,118 | ||
| | |$2,506 | ||
| | |$312 | ||
| | |} | ||
{{Tesla income statement}} | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Financial ratios | |||
!Year end date | |||
!31/12/2021 | |||
!31/12/2020 | |||
!31/12/2019 | |||
!31/12/2018 | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | | colspan="5" |'''Liquidity Ratios''' | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Current Ratio | ||
| | |138% | ||
| | | 188% | ||
| | | 113% | ||
| | | 83% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Quick Ratio | ||
| | |108% | ||
| | |159% | ||
| | |80% | ||
| | |52% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Cash Ratio | ||
| | |90% | ||
| | |136% | ||
| | |59% | ||
| | |39% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | colspan="5" |'''Profitability Ratios''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Gross Margin | ||
| | |25% | ||
| | |21% | ||
| | |17% | ||
| | |19% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Operating Margin | ||
| | |12% | ||
| | |6% | ||
| | |0% | ||
| | |0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Pre-Tax Margin | ||
| | | 12% | ||
| | | 4% | ||
| | | 0% | ||
| | |0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Profit Margin | ||
| | |10% | ||
| | |2% | ||
| | |0% | ||
| | |0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Pre-Tax ROE | ||
| | |21% | ||
| | |5% | ||
| | |0% | ||
| | |0% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |After Tax ROE | ||
| | |18% | ||
|3% | |||
|0% | |||
|0% | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|} | |} | ||
===Relative valuation approach=== | |||
As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach. | |||
====What's the expected return of an investment in Tesla using the relative valuation approach?==== | |||
Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Tesla Inc over the next five years is 4.4x. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £4,400 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. | |||
Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Tesla achieves its expected return level (of 4.4x), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one. | |||
====What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+Key inputs | ||
! | !Description | ||
! | !Value | ||
! | !Commentary | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | Which type of multiple do you want to use? | ||
| Growth-adjusted EV/sales | |||
| For the numerator, Stockhub believes that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, Stockhub believes that because it expects Tesla to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, Stockhub suggests valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, Stockhub feels that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple<ref group="Note" name="Note15" />, rather than the EV/sales multiple. | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use? | ||
| | |||
| | |Year 5 | ||
|Stockhub suggests that with sales forecast to grow exponential over the five year forecast period, it's best to use forward-looking data, rather than historic data. | |||
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, Stockhub suggests that in order to account for the forecasted exponential growth of the business, it's best to use one at the end of the forecast period (i.e. Year 5). | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use? | ||
| | |Year 6 to 8, from now | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 6 to 8. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use? | ||
| | |89x | ||
| | |In Stockhub's view, Tesla closest peer is [[Apple, Inc.|Apple, Inc]]. [[Apple, Inc.|Apple, Inc]] trades on a multiple of 89x. | ||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Which financial forecasts to use? | ||
|Stockhub | |||
|The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those. | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | | What's the current value of the Stockhub company? | ||
| | |$688 billion | ||
| | |As at 21st May 2022, the current value of its company at $688 billion. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? | ||
| | |Between now and five years time | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time. | ||
| | |} | ||
===Tesla peer(s)=== | |||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | |||
|+Valuation table | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
!Investments!! Industry !!Enterprise value/sales!!1-year forward revenue growth rates (%)!!Growth-adjusted enterprise value/sales ratio | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | | [[Apple, Inc.|Apple, Inc]]||Internet content & communication||7.27x<ref name=":0">Morningstar, Inc.</ref>||8.20%<ref name=":0" />|| style="background: blue; color: white;" |89x | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|0 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Tesla peers | |||
!Peer | |||
!Three-year average COGS margin (%) | |||
!Three-year average SG&A margin (%) | |||
!Three-year average tax margin (%) | |||
!Three-year average depreciation rate (%) | |||
!Three-year average fixed capital margin (%) | |||
!Three-year average change in working capital ($000) | |||
!Three-year average growth stage | |||
!Discount rate | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Rivian Automotive, Inc. | ||
| | |945% | ||
| | |6827% | ||
|0% | |||
|358% | |||
|3262% | |||
|7,569,000 | |||
|1 | |||
|NA | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Tesla, Inc. | ||
|79% | |||
| | |15% | ||
| | |11% | ||
|7% | |||
|10% | |||
|3,121,828 | |||
|2 | |||
|14.96% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Apple, Inc | ||
| | |62% | ||
| | |13% | ||
|14% | |||
|4% | |||
|3% | |||
| -18,780,000 | |||
|3 | |||
|9.91% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Workhorse Group | ||
| | |938% | ||
| | | -6077% | ||
| | |0% | ||
| | |58% | ||
| | |411% | ||
| | | -2,978 | ||
|4 | |||
|18.75% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Cenntro Electric Group Limited | ||
| | |90% | ||
| | |209% | ||
|0% | |||
|37% | |||
|0% | |||
|138,382 | |||
|4 | |||
|10.44% | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Liaoning SG Automotive Group Co | ||
| | |99% | ||
| | |15% | ||
|18% | |||
|8% | |||
|1% | |||
|154,153 | |||
|4 | |||
|6.39% | |||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|+Growth stage | |||
!Growth stage | |||
{| class="wikitable | |||
|+ | |||
!Three-year average COGS margin (%) | !Three-year average COGS margin (%) | ||
!Three-year average SG&A margin (%) | !Three-year average SG&A margin (%) | ||
| Line 2,276: | Line 2,095: | ||
!Three-year average fixed capital margin (%) | !Three-year average fixed capital margin (%) | ||
!Three-year average change in working capital ($000) | !Three-year average change in working capital ($000) | ||
!Discount rate | !Discount rate | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |One | ||
|945% | |945% | ||
|6827% | |6827% | ||
| Line 2,286: | Line 2,104: | ||
|3262% | |3262% | ||
|7,569,000 | |7,569,000 | ||
|NA | |NA | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Two | ||
|79% | |79% | ||
|15% | |15% | ||
| Line 2,296: | Line 2,113: | ||
|10% | |10% | ||
|3,121,828 | |3,121,828 | ||
|14.96% | |14.96% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Three | ||
|62% | |62% | ||
|13% | |13% | ||
| Line 2,306: | Line 2,122: | ||
|3% | |3% | ||
| -18,780,000 | | -18,780,000 | ||
|9.91% | |9.91% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Four | ||
| | |99% | ||
| | |15% | ||
|0% | |0% | ||
|37% | |||
|1% | |||
|138,382 | |138,382 | ||
|10.44% | |10.44% | ||
|} | |} | ||
==== Apple Inc. ==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+Cost of equity (%) | ||
!Input | |||
!Input value | |||
!Additional information | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Risk-free rate (%) | ||
|3.44% | |||
| | |Here, the risk free rate is the US 30 year treasury bond, and is calculated as at 15th September 2022. | ||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Beta | ||
| | |1.23 | ||
| | |The asset’s beta measures its market or systematic risk, which in theory is the sensitivity of its returns to the returns on the “market portfolio” of risky assets. Concretely, beta equals the covariance of returns with the returns on the market portfolio divided by the market portfolio’s variance of returns. In typical practice for equity valuation, the market portfolio is represented by a broad value-weighted equity market index. The asset’s beta is estimated by a least squares regression of the asset’s returns on the index’s returns. | ||
In the typical case in which the equity risk premium is based on a national equity market index and estimated beta is based on sensitivity to that index, the assumption is being made implicitly that equity prices are largely determined by local investors. When equities markets are segmented in that sense (i.e., local market prices are largely determined by local investors rather than by investors worldwide), two issues with the same risk characteristics can have different required returns if they trade in different markets. | |||
The opposite assumption is that all investors worldwide participate equally in set- ting prices (perfectly integrated markets). That assumption results in the international CAPM (or world CAPM) in which the risk premium is relative to a world market portfolio. In practice, the international CAPM is not commonly relied on for required return on equity estimation. | |||
For estimating the required return on the equity using the Capital Asset Pricing Model, in terms of time period, and frequency of observations, the most common choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations. One study of U.S. stocks found support for five years of monthly data over alternatives. An argument can be made that the 2 years, weekly data can be especially appropriate in fast growing markets. | |||
The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, the beta of an average-systematic-risk security, than to the value of the raw beta. Because valuation is forward looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta. | |||
The figure here is taken from Yahoo Finance (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL&.tsrc=fin-srch), on 16th September 2022. | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Equity risk premium (%) | |||
|5.26% | |||
|The equity risk premium is the incremental return (premium) that investors require for holding equities rather than a risk-free asset (e.g., government bills or government bonds). Thus, it is the difference between the required return on equities and a specified expected risk-free rate of return. The equity risk premium, like the required return, depends strictly on expectations for the future because the investor’s returns depend only on the investment’s future cash flows. | |||
Note: the definition of risk-free asset used in estimating the equity risk premium should correspond to the one used in specifying the current expected risk-free return. | |||
Typically, analysts estimate the equity risk premium for the national equity market of the issues being analyzed (but if a global CAPM is being used, a world equity premium is estimated that takes into account the totality of equity markets). | |||
'''Historical estimates''' | |||
A historical equity risk premium estimate is usually calculated as the mean value of the differences between broad-based equity-market-index returns and government debt returns over some selected sample period. When reliable long-term records of equity returns are available, historical estimates have been a familiar and popular choice of estimation. If investors do not make systematic errors in forming expectations, then, over the long term, average returns should be an unbiased estimate of what investors expected. The fact that historical estimates are based on data also gives them an objective quality. | |||
|Equity risk premium (%) | |||
| | |||
|The equity risk premium is the incremental return (premium) that investors require for holding equities rather than a risk-free asset (e.g., government bills or government bonds). Thus, it is the difference between the required return on equities and a specified expected risk-free rate of return. The equity risk premium, like the required return, depends strictly on expectations for the future because the investor’s returns depend only on the investment’s future cash flows. | |||
Note: the definition of risk-free asset used in estimating the equity risk premium should correspond to the one used in specifying the current expected risk-free return. | |||
Typically, analysts estimate the equity risk premium for the national equity market of the issues being analyzed (but if a global CAPM is being used, a world equity premium is estimated that takes into account the totality of equity markets). | |||
'''Historical estimates''' | |||
A historical equity risk premium estimate is usually calculated as the mean value of the differences between broad-based equity-market-index returns and government debt returns over some selected sample period. When reliable long-term records of equity returns are available, historical estimates have been a familiar and popular choice of estimation. If investors do not make systematic errors in forming expectations, then, over the long term, average returns should be an unbiased estimate of what investors expected. The fact that historical estimates are based on data also gives them an objective quality. | |||
In using a historical estimate to represent the equity risk premium going forward, the analyst is assuming that returns are stationary—that is, the parameters that describe the return-generating process are constant over the past and into the future. | In using a historical estimate to represent the equity risk premium going forward, the analyst is assuming that returns are stationary—that is, the parameters that describe the return-generating process are constant over the past and into the future. | ||
| Line 2,429: | Line 2,176: | ||
Because the equity risk premium is based only on expectations for economic and financial variables from the present going forward, it is logical to estimate the premium directly based on current information and expectations concerning such variables. Such estimates are often called forward-looking or ex ante estimates. In principle, such estimates may agree with, be higher, or be lower than historical equity risk premium estimates. Ex ante estimates are likely to be less subject to an issue such as non-stationarity or data biases than historical estimates. However, such estimates are often subject to other potential errors related to financial and economic models and potential behavioural biases in forecasting. | Because the equity risk premium is based only on expectations for economic and financial variables from the present going forward, it is logical to estimate the premium directly based on current information and expectations concerning such variables. Such estimates are often called forward-looking or ex ante estimates. In principle, such estimates may agree with, be higher, or be lower than historical equity risk premium estimates. Ex ante estimates are likely to be less subject to an issue such as non-stationarity or data biases than historical estimates. However, such estimates are often subject to other potential errors related to financial and economic models and potential behavioural biases in forecasting. | ||
Here, the equity risk premium is | Here, the equity risk premium is relation to the global region, and is calculated as at 1st January 2022 (<nowiki>https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html</nowiki>). | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Cost of equity (%) | |Cost of equity (%) | ||
| Line 2,443: | Line 2,190: | ||
|Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | |Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|62% | |62% | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | |Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|13% | |13% | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Tax rate (%) | |Tax rate (%) | ||
|14% | |14% | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | |Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|4% | |4% | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|{{#expr:trunc(11085000/365817000*100)}}% | |{{#expr:trunc(11085000/365817000*100)}}% | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | |Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) | ||
|{{#expr:trunc((134836000-125481000)/365817000*100)}}% | |{{#expr:trunc((134836000-125481000)/365817000*100)}}% | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Net borrowing ($000) | |Net borrowing ($000) | ||
|${{formatnum:{{#expr:trunc(15613000+109106000-62639000)}}}} | |${{formatnum:{{#expr:trunc(15613000+109106000-62639000)}}}} | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Interest amount ($000) | |Interest amount ($000) | ||
|$2,645,000 | |$2,645,000 | ||
| | |Stockhub suggests that to account for one-off events, it's best to take the three-year average (median) amount. | ||
|} | |} | ||
| Line 2,673: | Line 2,420: | ||
|Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use | |Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use | ||
|} | |} | ||
== Notes== | == Notes== | ||